Economics Topics
Economics Topics
Feedback is welcome at the address in the lower-left corner of this page.
U.S. Payroll Employment
While payroll employment is often thought to lag changes in the economy, it is a fairly well-measured statistic that is available on a monthly basis.
The employment situation release seems like old news, and Jim has already teased out some of the most important aspects in his post. However, I thought a little more context would be useful, given that some observers still think a recession can be avoided. From the White House ...
Here's more on the employment report from The Economist:
Postpone the optimism, The Economist: Not long ago economists and policymakers in America clung to hopes that the economy, after lurching through the depths of a financial crisis earlier this year, would rebound in the second six months. Such hopes look ...
US unemployment in August "jumped unexpectedly" to 6.1%, by the oddest of coincidences in the first full month just after new, 12% higher US minimum wages took effect.
The unemployment rate is higher than it has been in the United States in the last 5 years, but substantially ...
Economists and others weigh in on the jump in the unemployment rate to 6.1% and the 84,000 job losses reported in August.
Unlike the first big jump in unemployment in May, the problem is not school-leavers; the unemployment rate for 16-19 year-olds fell in August, while the rate for everyone ...The unemployment rate rose from 5.7 to 6.1 percent in August, and non-farm payroll employment continued to trend down (-84,000)
The household survey indicated a 342,000 decline in employment, which led to:
The employment-population ratio fell over the month to 62.1 percent in August, ...
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending Aug. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial ...
Compared to other economic cycles this is looking like an extended shallow near recession.
But that may be the most bearish scenario.
This morning's BLS Employment Situation Summary for August was dismal: unemployment jumped from 5.7% to 6.1% and non-farm payroll dropped by 84,000. One piece of good new, if you can call it that is that he silent employment problem did not get worse. ...
I don't know much about GDP, but this feels like a recession to me. The unemployment rate of 6.1% is up from just 4.9% in the first quarter of this year: that's one torrid growth rate you don't want to see.
Related LinksSummer's Over. So's Your Job.
The Slo-Mo ...
Some partially good economic news for a change.
The August ADP National Employment Report and ADP Small Business Report showed that small businesses (businesses with fewer than 50 workers) added 20,000 jobs during August.
If ...
Over the past few months, I've heard that, while job creation is insufficient to keep unemployment rates constant, job losses have not been consistent with recession. More recently, we've heard a slight modification on this "talking point". Commenting on the August 1 labor market release, WSJ RealTime Economics notes:
So ...
While the latest GDP figures suggest an economy that continues to grow, today's employment data are more consistent with the claim that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial ...
Economists and others weigh in on the decline in U.S. payrolls and the increase in the unemployment rate.
The private sector continues to bleed jobs, and there is no sign from the corporate sector that this is going to end anytime soon. A weakening labor market intensifies pressure on consumers, ...5.7% unemployment? That's ugly. The headline payrolls number of -51,000 jobs might be less bad than the market expected, especially since the fall in June was smaller than originally reported as well. But only the financial markets care about the monthly change in non-farm payrolls. Real people care about the ...
5.7% unemployment? That's ugly. The headline payrolls number of -51,000 jobs might be less bad than the market expected, especially since the fall in June was smaller than originally reported as well. But only the financial markets care about the monthly change in non-farm payrolls. Real people care about the ...
The New York Times has discovered the issue of the involuntary underemployed -- i.e. the part-time worker -- in a nice article today entitled A Hidden Toll on Employment - Cut to Part Time:
The number of ...
Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according ...
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2008
BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported ...
The Labor Department's establishment survey includes an imputation for jobs created in new firms that are not included in its sampling universe. This imputation tends to miss turning points, understating job growth when the economy picks up speed and overstating job growth when the economy sinks into a recession.
Last year ...
Today's employment report includes news that the employment to population ratio is falling:
Dean Baker is first out of the gate with his take on these June job numbers:
Employment Rate Drops as Economy Sheds 62,000:
The employment to population ratio (EPOP) ratio fell to 62.4 percent in June, its lowest level ...
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall ...
This morning's unemployment numbers from BLS were as bad if not worse than last month, even though the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Employment loss in June was 62,000. And May's revised job loss was put at also 62,000 -- a dramatic increase from the ...
Seasonally Adjusted
In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial ...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls shrank for a sixth consecutive month, decreasing by 62,000 jobs in June while previous months were revised lower, as businesses retrenched in the face of rising costs and a weak economy. The month’s unemployment rate held at 5.5%, after rising sharply in May. Economists and others ...
The stimulus checks may be propping up consumer spending, at least temporarily, but the job market is still weakening.
Initial jobless claims jumped to 404,000 mark last week, up from 388,000 the week previous the Labor Department reports. That's only the second time the 400,000 mark has been passed ...
Lost 62k jobs last month. Manufacturing continues the drop despite the weak dollar... manufacturing has lost 353,000 jobs since this time last year.
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of ...
Plummeting home prices have in recent months eliminated jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, from bankers and real estate agents to construction workers and furniture manufacturers.
(Image credit: www.barrysternberg.com)
Whoa!
According to this Business Journal report:
A new payroll report shows that nearly 80,000 private-sector jobs were lost across the country in June.
The National Employment Report from Automatic Data Processing showed a loss of 76,000 jobs among goods-producing businesses, the 19th consecutive ...
Private sector jobs dropped 79,000 in the U.S. in June, according to the ADP national employment report, released Wednesday by payroll giant Automatic Data Processing and consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
That’s above the expected decline of 20,000 seen in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. May’s report was revised ...
Mark Perry wonders if the large jump in the US unemployment rate was driven in part by the recent surge in the minimum wage.
Accoding to BLS data on unemployment rates by age, it looks like almost all ...
Official recession definitions used to correspond closely with labor market outcomes, because we had âV-shapedâ recessions: when they were over, everything sprang up quickly. Hereâs the employment-population ratio and recession periods ...
This is not good news:
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.5% As Economy Continues to Shed Jobs, by Brian Blackstone, WSJ: The U.S. unemployment rate posted its sharpest one-month increase in 22 years last month, suggesting U.S. consumers already facing a housing slump and soaring gasoline prices now confront even more ...
The Bloomberg economic calendar page tells us we expected a loss of 60,000 jobs; we got a loss of 49,000. (WSJ carried the same number this morning.) Not good at all, but not a blow-out bad ...
The unemployment rate rose from 5.0 to 5.5 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-49,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.
I must be getting lazy as ...
It looks like the economic downturn may finally be showing up in the employment data. This morning's BLS announcement that the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5% and payroll employment declined by 49,000 (for a total job loss of 324,000 so far this year) point to ...
The nation's unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent in May â the biggest monthly rise since 1986 â as nervous employers cut 49,000 jobs. The latest snapshot of business conditions showed a deeply troubled economy, with dwindling ...
Economists and others weigh in on the decline in nonfarm payrolls and the unexpectedly large jump in the unemployment rate.
The major factor behind [the jump in the unemployment rate] was the increase in the rate of unemployment among 20-24 year olds. The rate of unemployment in this cohort increased ...This week has witnessed some encouraging news on the economic front, but this morning's update on payrolls will mute any temptation for celebrating.
Indeed, the unemployment rate surged upward to 5.5% last month from 5.0% in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The jobless rate is now at its ...
For example, consider this headline: ADP ...
That's less than I expected. Here's a link to the current BLS report and the first paragraph summary.
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April (-20,000), following job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first 3 months of the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department ...
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April (-20,000), following job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first 3 months of the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The ...
Moreover, average hourly earnings were ...
Compared to last month, today's employment numbers are good news. BLS announced that nonfarm payroll employment where "little changed" with a decline of only 20,000 and that the unemployment rate actually declined to 5.0% in April. As the New York Times
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April (-20,000), following job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first 3 months of the year, the ...
Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed in April (-20,000), following job losses that totaled 240,000 in the first 3 months of the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unemployment rate, at 5.0 percent, also ...
Economists and others weigh in on the smaller-than-expected decline in nonfarm payrolls.
The pattern of payroll growth remained largely unchanged with construction and manufacturing shedding slightly more jobs this month versus last month while education, health and leisure jobs continued to add jobs at a slightly faster pace ...
According to the more comprehensive Household Survey Data (which unlike the establishment data, includes the ...
It's hardly great news, but the fact that job destruction was a bit less destructive last month will inspire the optimists that the recovery has begun.
Nonfarm payrolls shrunk by a relatively modest 20,000 last month, or roughly a quarter of the monthly losses that have been posted in ...
I am going to be out of the office for the rest of the day, but here are links to the usual sources:
Economics Unbound, Angry Bear, Big Picture, Calculated Risk
Also MSM pieces from Reuters and NY Times.
80,000 jobs lost and the ...
As informative as the nonfarm payroll employment numbers were, of even more interest to me are the revisions. Figure 1 depicts payroll employment estimates from the January (blue), February (red) and March (green) releases.
Economists and others weigh in on the weaker-than-expected jobs report, which showed an 80,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls and a jump in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.
Clear and unmistakable recession signals from the labor market. Private payrolls have declined for four consecutive months and the unemployment ...The unemployment rate rose from 4.8 to 5.1 percent in March, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-80,000), the ...
The unemployment rate rose from 4.8 to 5.1 percent in March, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-80,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the past 3 months, payroll employment has declined ...
Another day, another symptom of recession to digest.
Today's statistical confirmation is brought to you by the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, which lost ground in March, reports the U.S. Labor Department. Meanwhile, unemployment popped up to 5.1% last month from 4.8% previous, pushing the jobless rate to its highest ...
Interestingly hours worked rose ...
Well, this morning's job data was even worse than expected. BLS announced that the unemployment rate shot up to 5.1% in March and nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 80,000. Wall Street had expected payrolls to drop by 60,000 (see earlier posting). It ...
The latest estimate of job growth from payroll giant ADP and forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers suggests employment isnÂt booming, but it ainÂt too shabby either.
Private nonfarm employment grew by a seasonally-adjusted 8,000 jobs in March, the report said, after declining by a revised 18,000 jobs the ...
The latest employment numbers suggest that the tide has turned.
Wow, thats quite a wallop -- the worst jobs report in 5 years:
"Payrolls fell by 63,000, the most in five years, after a revised decline of 22,000 in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 4.8 percent, reflecting a shrinking labor force as ...
The jobs report contains a variety of information in it, and one of the pieces of information, and only ...
The Post tells us that the February jobs report was "surprisingly bleak." Actually, there is no reason there should have been any surprise. We are seeing an $8 trillion housing bubble deflate. It has decimated the housing market and now it it is hitting consumption. There is a large ...
The news on the employment front is not good. Payrolls fell 63,000 in February. However, the unemployment rate, which is based upon different survey, fell, but this is due to a decline in labor force participation not an increase in employment. From the WSJ:
Nonfarm payrolls fell 63,000 in February, ...
The little good news in today’s employment reports wasn’t so good after all. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% in February from 4.9% largely because of workers giving up hope and ending their job searches.
The Labor Department said 450,000 left the labor force last ...
The February employment numbers came out this morning -- and the decline in payrolls immediately had everyone crying recession (see for example Economics Blog : Economists React: Payrolls at 'Recessionary Levels').
The numbers certainly were not good. But I have ...
Payrolls fell by 63,000, the biggest drop since March 2003, after a decline of 22,000 in January that was larger than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined ...
BLS reports the February Employment Situation:
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent
Well â the unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to ...
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment fell in manufacturing, construction, and retail trade. Job growth ...
Economists and others weigh in on the the weaker-than-expected employment report.
Private payroll growth has now been negative for three months in a row (including a very sharp 101,000 drop in February). These payroll changes are at recessionary levels. –Drew Matus, Lehman Brothers
Back-to-back nonfarm payroll declines ...
I'm not a big fan of the monthly payrolls report, which has a 90% confidence interval"on the order of plus or minus
430,000". Payrolls fell by 63,000 in February - something which I'm sure is going to be treated as a bearish indicator by the market. ...
Construction and Financial Employment Changes
Source: ADP, Macroeconomic advisors
>
Tomorrow we learn what BLS data shows for the Non-Farm Payroll data for February. Consensus is for a meek 25,000 new jobs ...
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report shows a loss of 23,000 jobs in February. I would look for Friday's BLS payroll survey to be pretty flat--maybe 50K in either direction. We shall see.
Tomorrow, I'm in the Quad Cities for an economic outlook breakfast. William ...
After being way off the market a month ago, the monthly employment report from payroll firm Automatic Data Processing points to a flat job mark in February as companies cut their payrolls.
Nonfarm private employment declined by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, the report said. ...
In the January jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) incorporated its benchmark revision and lowered the number of jobs estimated by 376,000. This revision is based on data from state unemployment insurance (UI) offices, which covers more than 99 percent of payroll employment. The downward revision implies that ...
None of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a decline.
The drop in payrolls in ...
This isn't a very good employment report. Here are three views of the report, starting with Dean Baker, plus links to more discussion at the end:
Economy Sheds Jobs, Unemployment Stable, by Dean Baker, CEPR: "For the first time since data has been kept, manufacturing is less than 10 percent ...
I got a sad email from a friend at Morgan Stanley yesterday, talking of the hundreds of employees who were "marched out of the building" at 9:15 in the morning, part (one assumes) of the previously-announced headcount reduction.
Morgan Stanley, it seems, is not alone: for the first time since ...
Both nonfarm payroll employment, at 138.1 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.9 percent, were essentially unchanged in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The small January movement in nonfarm payroll employment (-17,000) ...
As you can expect, most economists were surprised at this morning's jobs numbers showing a net decline in nonfarm payrolls of 14,000 17,000 -- the first actual decline since August 2003. According to the Wall Street Journal (Payrolls Unexpectedly ...
In this morning's BLS Employment Situation report for Jan 2008, the unemployment rate is 4.9. Therefore the new employment-based recession probability index (RPI) is 0.060 (or 6.0%).
The RPI is ...
Both nonfarm payroll employment, at 138.1 million, and the unemployment rate, at 4.9 percent, were essentially unchanged in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The small January movement in nonfarm payroll employment (-17,000) reflected ...
TodayÂs jobs data were a melting pot of fascinating and conflicting signals on the labor market.
Of course, the 17,000 drop in nonfarm payroll employment is the most eye-catching aspect. The weakness in the payroll survey was corroborated by a decline in the average work week, to ...
Economists and others weigh in on the the January employment report, which showed an unexpected decline in nonfarm payrolls and slight drop in the unemployment rate.
Private payrolls rose by 1,000; the 18,000 drop in government jobs — all at the state level — is the first decline since July ...
It's a new month tomorrow, and it's a Friday, which means it's payrolls day. Sudeep Reddy has a good preview of what the jobs report might bring; forecasts range from a decrease of 125,000 (thank you Mish) to an increase of 125,000 (Goldman Sachs, revising up their estimate ...
Conflicting signals from labor-market surveys are throwing forecasters for a loop. Friday’s Labor Department report on January employment was supposed to show another weak month. Then ADP’s data on private-sector employment yesterday suggested the employment picture may not be so bad after all. Now, ...
The labor market may not be in weak shape after all. The latest forecast by payroll firm Automatic Data Processing shows job creation soaring in January.
Nonfarm private employment surged by a seasonally adjusted 130,000 during the month, ADP said. Adding in 22,000 government jobs (the ...
I'm a bit slow here (I'm traveling), but the bad jobs story for December might be even worse than is being reported. The reason is that the imputation for jobs created by new firms not included in the survey is likely overstating job growth.
In December, this imputation added 66,000 ...
Why did I pick today to resuscitate my extremely occasional series of blog entries on the uselessness and irrelevance of the payrolls report? In reality, it would seem that the report was responsible for the decimation of technology stocks, the capitulation of the market into the ...
The employment report, outsourced to PGL:
December Employment Report: Even Worse that the Lead Paragraph Suggests, by pgl: The BLS opens its report for December 2007 employment with:
The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000)
So the payroll survey showed ...
A flickering sign of hope for the job market? The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of service-sector employment offered a slightly positive reading in a day of otherwise glum news in that arena.
The business group said its index of nonmanufacturing employment rose to 52.1 ...
The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent ...
By one rule of thumb, the unemployment rate has now risen enough to send a reliable signal of recession.
Economists at Goldman Sachs say once the three-month average of the unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points, the economy has always either been in, or about to ...
Economists and others weigh in on the weaker-than-expected gain in payrolls and the rise in the unemployment rate.
The sharp jump in the unemployment rate — from 4.7% to 5.0% — may be the most alarming feature of this report. Single-month increases that large occur only rarely and most often ...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics survey of households has for the last year shown far weaker job growth than its larger and more closely followed survey of payrolls, even when the two define jobs the same way.
In December, nonfarm payrolls rose 18,000 while household employment plunged 436,000. ...
The job market was a bit weaker than first reported through the second half of last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
The BLS revised its seasonal adjustment factors back to 2003. As a result, it says unemployment rate averaged 4.70% from July through November last ...
The day after the Iowa caucus, with the media full of horse-race coverage of presidential politics, is a good one to miss the news of the monthly jobs report. Good. The non-farm payroll report, which comes out on the first Friday of every month, is increasingly irrelevant, and ...
There's no mistaking the trend now. The economy's slowing dramatically and the risk of recession is quite real, as this morning's dreary employment report for December strongly suggests.
Nonfarm payrolls rose a thin 18,000 last month, the Labor Department reported today. As our chart below shows, that's the slowest pace ...
Way to go team Bush!!
P.S. Note that in modern times only one Republican President managed to leave office with a lower unemployment rate then they ...
So the payroll survey showed a very low increase in employment but Iâm sure the White House will emphasize that ...
The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, ...