Politics Roundtable

Politics Roundtable

Political blogs of interest to economists.

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A Fistful of Euros


November 30, 2016, 4:18 am, 1698438

Thirteen years, and now 4200 posts.

Judging from the level of activity, Brexit broke the blog. Now with the election of Trump, we’ll get to see a lot of other stuff broken. When I first started writing here, I was still doing a fair amount of public speaking in cooperation ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675571

The IMF World Economic Outlook update is out. Despite all the China and financial markets talk, the movement in the forecast is more about the uselessness of BRICS as an economic concept: deeper recessions than foreseen even 6 months ago in Brazil and Russia, extreme sluggishness in ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675572

From the Davos-timed Oxfam analysis of global wealth distribution –

In 2015 the net wealth of the 3.6 billion people living in the bottom 50
percent was $1.75 trillion.

That means average wealth for those 3.6 billion people was US$486. It’s a wonder they’re not all trying to move to ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675570

The fate of the Irish and the Icelandic banks are intertwined in time: as the Irish government decided on a blanket guarantee for the Irish banks, the Icelandic government was trying, in vain, to save the Icelandic banks. In spite of the guarantee six Irish banks failed in the coming ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675569

The IMF Board considered the annual surveillance of the UK economy barely 2 weeks ago, and the associated report was published even more recently. And a couple of days after that, its main findings about fiscal policy — trumpeted by George Osborne during the visit — are effectively ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675567

Prominent Brexiter Andrew Lilico, I see, argues that we could avoid the uncertainty created by triggering the Article 50 process by not doing so:

The Treasury says an instant triggering of Article 50 post-referendum would be a driver of uncertainty. In which case, maybe don’t do that?

Indeed. Article 50 of ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675568

A couple of thoughts on the economic consequences of #Brexit. HM Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and others have published their efforts to forecast the short- to medium-term impacts of leaving the EU, and it’s fair to say none of them are good. The point I would like to ...


September 19, 2016, 12:18 am, 1675566

I wrote this for Politico Europe, but they won’t have it, perhaps because it’s not OMG BREXIT enough. To update it, let’s note that Ipsos MORI reckons only 20% care about immigration and more people think they, personally, have benefited from it than not.

With ten days to go, ...


July 31, 2016, 4:18 pm, 1659272

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) for the IMF released its evaluation of the Eurozone bailouts last week. Unfortunately, the excellent report was released on the Thursday of what was for Bureaucristan the last working week before September, and was released as a package with prebuttal of the recommendations ...


July 21, 2016, 2:18 pm, 1655830

IMF note to the G20 meeting in Shanghai in February –

The global recovery has weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices. Activity softened towards the end of 2015 and the valuation of risky assets has dropped sharply, especially in advanced economies, increasing the likelihood of a further weakening ...