Politics Roundtable

Politics Roundtable

Political blogs of interest to economists.

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A Fistful of Euros


July 21, 2016, 2:18 pm, 1655830

IMF note to the G20 meeting in Shanghai in February –

The global recovery has weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices. Activity softened towards the end of 2015 and the valuation of risky assets has dropped sharply, especially in advanced economies, increasing the likelihood of a further weakening ...


July 5, 2016, 12:18 pm, 1651023

Until early this year it seemed unlikely that an extreme idea lingering for two decades on the political fringe could turn into a mainstream choice preferred by majority of British voters as happened on June 23. Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage declared victory: he has for decades championed leaving the European ...


June 22, 2016, 6:18 pm, 1647684

I wrote this for Politico Europe, but they won’t have it, perhaps because it’s not OMG BREXIT enough. To update it, let’s note that Ipsos MORI reckons only 20% care about immigration and more people think they, personally, have benefited from it than not.

With ten days to go, ...


May 25, 2016, 10:18 am, 1639690

A couple of thoughts on the economic consequences of #Brexit. HM Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and others have published their efforts to forecast the short- to medium-term impacts of leaving the EU, and it’s fair to say none of them are good. The point I would like to ...


May 25, 2016, 10:18 am, 1639689

Prominent Brexiter Andrew Lilico, I see, argues that we could avoid the uncertainty created by triggering the Article 50 process by not doing so:

The Treasury says an instant triggering of Article 50 post-referendum would be a driver of uncertainty. In which case, maybe don’t do that?

Indeed. Article 50 of ...


February 27, 2016, 4:18 pm, 1612964

The IMF Board considered the annual surveillance of the UK economy barely 2 weeks ago, and the associated report was published even more recently. And a couple of days after that, its main findings about fiscal policy — trumpeted by George Osborne during the visit — are effectively ...


February 8, 2016, 10:18 am, 1606360

The fate of the Irish and the Icelandic banks are intertwined in time: as the Irish government decided on a blanket guarantee for the Irish banks, the Icelandic government was trying, in vain, to save the Icelandic banks. In spite of the guarantee six Irish banks failed in the coming ...


January 20, 2016, 8:18 am, 1600362

The IMF World Economic Outlook update is out. Despite all the China and financial markets talk, the movement in the forecast is more about the uselessness of BRICS as an economic concept: deeper recessions than foreseen even 6 months ago in Brazil and Russia, extreme sluggishness in ...


January 18, 2016, 6:18 pm, 1599831

From the Davos-timed Oxfam analysis of global wealth distribution –

In 2015 the net wealth of the 3.6 billion people living in the bottom 50
percent was $1.75 trillion.

That means average wealth for those 3.6 billion people was US$486. It’s a wonder they’re not all trying to move to ...


December 29, 2015, 8:18 pm, 1594722

Unfortunately the dark and cold days of winter tend to bring some untimely departures and this season’s deaths now include our blogging colleague Edward Hugh, who we gather died yesterday in Spain. Edward’s posts here and on other platforms marked him out as someone with the fresh eyes of ...