Politics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

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Politics Roundtable

Political blogs of interest to economists.

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A Fistful of Euros


May 18, 2015, 4:18 am, 1476078

Everything has a cost, or so the story goes, especially time. In the Greek case we now know an additional item on the mounting bill: the country is back in recession. The issue is who – apart of course from the long-suffering Greeks themselves – will pay the extra costs ...


May 15, 2015, 10:18 am, 1475149

Following up on the ideas in this post, here’s an interesting chart from the Bank of England Inflation Report.

In our model, people advance along at least locally optimal career paths in expansions, and ...


May 5, 2015, 2:18 pm, 1468022

He must be chosen from among you as a scapegoat. Hipponax

One of the more intriguing aspects of the whole modern Greek drama is the tragicomic way the country seems to be constantly condemned to live out well known themes which come from its own mythology. The latest example is the ...


April 28, 2015, 6:18 pm, 1463445

The Swiss Franc unpegging from the euro 15 January this year brought the risk of foreign currency borrowing for unhedged borrowers yet again to the fore. In Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe lending in Swiss Franc and other foreign currency, most notably in euros, has been common since the early ...


April 17, 2015, 2:18 pm, 1457315

What Business Insider’s Mike Bird somewhat ironically calls #euroboom2015 seems to be well and truly with us.

The WSJ’s Simon Nixon spelled it out for us in his ...


April 15, 2015, 8:18 am, 1455666

They say the first rule of editing is “kill your darlings”. The first rule of science, however, is “sacrifice your darlings humanely in accordance with the research ethics committee guidelines, but keep their brains for further investigation”. So it is with this post. Per Mason, apparently the GFC ...


April 14, 2015, 4:18 am, 1454861

Mariano Rajoy is a man who is not shy when it comes to being controversial, as the storm surrounding his stance over the recent Greek bailout negotiations clearly illustrates (and here). So it is perhaps not surprising that he did not notably blush when he informed a ...


April 5, 2015, 8:18 am, 1450765

Just to follow up on this post, a simple test of the model would be to check if the ECEC (i.e. not normalised for compositional shifts) wages series is strongly correlated with the output gap. Output gap is easy enough – real potential GDP and real GDP are in ...


March 31, 2015, 8:18 pm, 1448702

JW Mason has an interesting discovery among the data. Specifically, it looks like the US data series for wages, normalised for shifts in the composition of jobs, is much less cyclical than the raw data. In other words, the business cycle seems to affect wages through composition shifts. In ...


March 27, 2015, 2:18 pm, 1446574

“After the Great Depression, secular stagnation turned out to be a figment of economists’ imaginations……it is still too soon to tell if this will also be the case after the Great Recession. However, the risks of secular stagnation are much greater in depressed Eurozone economies than in the US, ...