Finance Roundtable

While the Fed is still toeing the party line regarding the longevity of the recovery ("just a soft patch") a couple of influential market players are sounding the alarm klaxons. It looks as if Merrill Lynch put out a note warning investors to expect a Tsunami of earnings warnings. ...

The Washington Post has a short primer on what the neutral Fed Funds rate is. You can find the article here (registration needed). The two most important points are reproduced below (italics mine)

The level at which the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate, the overnight rate charged between banks, ...

My newest Postcard from Old Europe is up over at Angry Bear's place.

Fighting in Nigeria caused oil to break through the "psychologically" important USD 50 level. This actually means - well - not much. Oil would have to rise to something like USD 80 to come near the historical highs in real terms.

I have a great suggestion for all of you out there who think that the CPI is a sham: go over to Pimco's website and read Bill Gross' latest commentary.

The King of Bonds provides his readers with an industrial strength smackdown of hedonic adjustment. Some extracts ...

Remember the old adage about an optimist saying that a glass is half full while the pessimist says it is half empty? Something similar is happening with official attitudes to the US currency.

The strong dollar policy of the past has been tacitly abandoned over the past two ...

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (pdf!) came out today at a better than expected 61.3. Although the number is better than expected it is still below the average level seen during the beginning of this year.

The employment figure came in at 53.9 which constitutes a recovery ...

Work ate into most of my blogging time this week. I hope that regular service will resume as soon as possible.

Markets are all about expectations - you buy stuff which you think will increase in value and sell stuff which you think will lose value. This basic rule holds true in the real economy as well - if a purchasing manager thinks that some vital resource is going to get ...

One of the things that keeps me wondering is why people actually spend so much time discussing why active management is better or worse than passive management. The Hypertextual Financial Glossary tells us that

Active portfolio strategy
A strategy that uses available information and forecasting techniques to seek better ...