The Problem - II
Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of
the housing tailspin.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
The Problem - I
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of
the problem we face.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topic 8/4/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +42,000
BLS: -131,000/+71,000
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topics 6/28/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +13,000
BLS: -125,000/+83,000
CBO: Take your pick.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10
James Hamilton summarizes the situation.
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis
"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”
September 1, 2010, 11:34 pm, 758780
Spending is up a tad from depressed 2009 levels but still way below 2008 levels. Looking ahead year-over-year comparisons will be much more difficult and weak sales will continue to impact state budgets.
A recent Gallup Poll shows
U.S. Consumers Pulling Back on ...
September 1, 2010, 11:34 am, 758471
I am traveling this morning will look at ISM and other data this afternoon. Meanwhile here a a few quick hits on propriety trading, bizarre charts of robo trader patterns, walking away from boats, Blogger fees in Philadelphia, birth rate demographics, and other potpourri.
JPMorgan to Shut ...
September 1, 2010, 5:34 am, 758204
Inquiring minds are investigating the FDIC Second Quarter 2010
Quarterly Banking Profile.
Quarterly Earnings Are Highest in Almost Three Years
Reductions in loan-loss provisions underscored improvement in asset quality indicators during second quarter 2010. The industry’s quarterly earnings of $21.6 billion are ...
September 1, 2010, 1:34 am, 758117
From the dysfunctional state of Oregon comes news that Measure 66 fell about 50% short of its revenue predictions. Balance that with 4.75% pay hikes and it adds up with a continuing refusal by Oregon to address its problems.
Oregon Grants Unions 4.75% Pay Hike
August 31, 2010, 3:34 pm, 757902
Here is an interesting snip from August 31 Market Commentary by Art Cashin for UBS. Sorry, no link.
Monday’s market evaporated nearly all the gains from Friday’s rally. Despite lighter volume, it was a 90% down day. That means the bears got a lopsided advantage in negative breadth ...
August 31, 2010, 1:34 pm, 757832
Movie attendance is down but increased prices made up the difference for now. Bloomberg reports
Summer Movie Box-Office Attendance Falls to Lowest Since 1997Summer movie attendance fell to the lowest level since 1997, while soaring ticket prices produced record revenue for Hollywood studios and theater owners.
The ...
August 31, 2010, 3:34 am, 757515
People are still emailing me, making a mountain out of a molehill of a Rosenberg statement I quoted in
Burning Down the House; New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low; Nationwide, Zero New Homes Sold Above 750KI failed to comment yesterday on the huge miss ...
August 30, 2010, 11:34 pm, 757439
Miami is bankrupt. Unfortunately the city refuses to admit it.
In an enormously foolhardy attempt to make ends meet, in spite of the fact that Miami home prices have been hammered and 1-in-8 are unemployed, the
County keeps pouring on the painful tax and fee increases.
As ...
August 30, 2010, 1:34 pm, 757200
Reader "Henry" has a question on the loan loss provision chart I posted in
Former Fed Vice Chairman vs. Mish: Is the Fed Out of Ammo?Henry writes ...
Hello Mish,
Thanks for writing and sharing your wonderful column. It has been very informative and ...
August 29, 2010, 11:34 pm, 756808
I received a lot of emails in response to
Who's to Blame for Rising Healthcare Costs? Some reader suggestions might save you some money.
Overpaying for Generics
"Dr. P" a front line working family physician for 30 years writes ....
Hello Mish
Thank ...
August 29, 2010, 3:34 pm, 756745
Here is a funny clip from
Seinfeld on double dipping. Embedding disabled.
What We Call The News - Jib Jab
August 29, 2010, 5:34 am, 756658
Slightly over one year ago, I received an email from "Morally Conflicted in Arizona" who at the time was considering "Walking Away". I responded to his email on August 18, 2009 in
Bright Side of Falling Home PricesIt turns out "Morally Conflicted" did indeed walk away. ...
August 28, 2010, 9:34 pm, 756533
In response to
Another Atlas Shrugs - Small Business Owners Chime In I received still more emails from business owners regarding healthcare costs.
In contrast to the CEO of a healthcare consulting company who blames Obama, a CEO Therapist in New York, says healthcare insurers are ...
August 28, 2010, 3:34 pm, 756503
There is a lot of nonsense from the mouths of Jackson Hole participants, especially Bernanke and the NBER. Bloomberg highlights the latter in
Jackson Hole Debate on Recession Risk Shows Bernanke Challenge.
Economists who decide when recessions begin and end in the U.S. are divided over the odds ...
August 28, 2010, 3:34 pm, 756502
In
Schwarzenegger on Public Pensions and the Cost of the "Protected Class", I placed a considerable portion of blame for California's mess on the governor.
In response to the above article, "Poor House" wrote ....
Mish, you are continuing a big mistake of many "independents". That is blaming ...
August 28, 2010, 1:34 pm, 756485
There is a lot of nonsense from the mouths of Jackson Hole participants, especially Bernanke and the NBER. Bloomberg highlights the latter in
Jackson Hole Debate on Recession Risk Shows Bernanke Challenge.
Economists who decide when recessions begin and end in the U.S. are divided over the odds of ...
August 27, 2010, 5:34 pm, 756346
Now that Schwarzenegger is a certifiable lame duck (dead duck may be a more appropriate term) Schwarzenegger sees fit to take on public unions in a major way. It's too late now (for him) even as he speaks the truth.
Please consider
Public Pensions and Our Fiscal ...
August 27, 2010, 3:34 pm, 756287
Today the DOW has crossed the 10K line for the umpteenth time (at least 3 times in the past 3 days alone depending on how you count), smack on the heels of "fantastic news" that second quarter GDP was 1.6%.
For a change, economists were a bit too pessimistic ...
August 27, 2010, 3:34 am, 755836
Alan Blinder, a former Fed Vice Chairman says the Fed still has options if more monetary easing is needed.
Please consider
Fed Is Running Low on Ammo by Alan S. Blinder.
Chairman Ben Bernanke has told the world that the Fed is not out of ammunition. It still ...
August 26, 2010, 3:34 pm, 755643
I failed to comment yesterday on the huge miss by economists on consensus new home sales, but Rosenberg has some nice comments today in
Breakfast with Dave.
Burning Down the House
Once again, the consensus was fooled. It was looking for 330k on new home ...
August 26, 2010, 1:34 pm, 755560
Weekly unemployment claims fell 31,000 from the last week's revised total of 504,000 (revised up by 4,000). For a welcome change, an economic number actually came in better than economist projections.
However, 473,000 claims can hardly be considered encouraging. It is solidly in territory that suggests the economy ...
August 26, 2010, 7:34 am, 755317
Signs of weak consumer discretionary spending are popping up in multiple places. For example
Subscriber growth suddenly stops for cable TV industryAccording to data gathered by market research firm SNL Kagan, cable companies saw a noticeable drop in the total number of subscribers during the second quarter of ...
August 26, 2010, 1:34 am, 755171
Here is an email from "Living With Parents" who wants to buy a house and move out. Should she? LWP writes ...
Hello Mish
I am young, well liked at my job, and have solid qualifications (a bachelors and masters in accounting and a CPA license). I've paid off ...
August 25, 2010, 3:34 pm, 754983
Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.
As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what ...
August 25, 2010, 7:34 am, 754653
Kevin Feltes, an economist for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, solicited my opinion on a couple of their recent articles.
Levy comes down on the side of deflation, as do I. However, the devil is in the details, as always. I will go through one of their articles in ...
August 25, 2010, 1:34 am, 754507
Japan's Finance minister is waving the "currency intervention flag" hoping to halt the Yen's rise. Given that markets do their best to apply pressure exactly where it is not wanted, this flag-waiving exercise practically guarantees intervention will follow.
Will it do any good? Of course ...
August 24, 2010, 5:34 pm, 754422
In response to
Small Businesses are Not Hiring - Should They? I received a couple emails worth sharing. The CEO of a healthcare consulting company writes ....
Hello Mish
You ran a series of articles on small businesses, hiring and expansions. I thought I would add to ...
August 24, 2010, 1:34 pm, 754239
In yet another clean sweep, the third in a week or so, sales of existing homes dropped twice as much as expected, worse than every economist forecast, to a 15 year low. Inventory soared to 12.5 month, the highest since 1999. Treasury yields plunged with yield on the 10-year note ...
August 24, 2010, 3:34 am, 753913
Beneath the surface of a 9-1 vote in favor of continued quantitative easing, 7 of 17 Fed officials at the last FOMC meeting had at least some reservations about Bernanke's policy.
The Wall Street Journal reports
Fed Split on Move to Bolster Sluggish ...
August 23, 2010, 11:34 pm, 753878
I am reasonably certain that the economy is still in recession. If not (and this is ultimately up to the NBER to decide), the pending disaster in housing and commercial real estate will seal the double-dip deal.
Either way, the prognosis is not good, as economic conditions are deteriorating ...
August 23, 2010, 3:34 pm, 753725
With office space selling 30% below the 2007 high in the top-10 US office markets, and with lease rates still falling, one should expect to see more foreclosures in major cities.
Chicago is about to be hit says Crain's Chicago Business in
Office tower at 500 W. ...
August 23, 2010, 1:34 pm, 753643
Reader "Michele" received a notice from JPMorgan Chase out of the blue, offering to lower her 4.75% mortgage to 4.00%. Chase will waive closing costs.
Michele Writes ...
Hi Mish,
My husband and I just got an offer we can't refuse. We have our home mortgage with Chase bank. ...
August 23, 2010, 5:34 am, 753340
While some people still think the odds of a double dip recession are close to zero, ironically, the only reason they may be right is if the first dip never ended.
Please consider last Friday's Breakfast With Dave, wherein Rosenberg stated
U.S. RECESSION NEVER ENDED; ...
August 22, 2010, 11:34 pm, 753280
OregonLive continues to put out excellent articles on the sad state of affairs in Oregon. The question of the day is
Can Oregon downsize state government?Despite years of talk by Democrats and Republicans about the need to control spending, farm out work to private businesses and make ...
August 22, 2010, 9:34 pm, 753270
At a time we are laying off teachers for lack of funds, building $500 million school mansions is simply outrageous. Those responsible should be fired.
Please consider
LA unveils $578M school, costliest in the nationNext month's opening of the Robert F. Kennedy Community Schools will be ...
August 22, 2010, 3:34 pm, 753203
Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin was paid $124,000 in 2006 to write a glowing report on Iceland. He never bothered to disclosed that fact.
Moreover, the title of his report has since been change from "Financial Stability in Iceland" to "Financial Instability in Iceland". What's up with that?
August 22, 2010, 1:34 pm, 753187
The above in reference to
Trends in School Supplies; Reflections on Property TaxesFinancial Wit and Wisdom of Zsa Zsa Gabor
For more lighthearted ...
August 22, 2010, 1:34 am, 752998
Weekend Potpourri: Here is a collection of recent articles I did not discuss in depth but is worth a quick look.
Nevada Ranks #1 in Unemployment, Rate Hits 14.3%
The Las Vegas Review Journal reports
Nevada unemployment climbs in JulyThe employment department reported ...
August 21, 2010, 1:34 pm, 752967
Tony, from Elmhurst, Illinois is wondering about all the supplies he has to send with his kids this year. Tony writes ...
Mish,
As our kids go back to school in the coming weeks, I thought that I would make an observation regarding the way things were when I ...
August 21, 2010, 3:34 am, 752919
The bell rings once again on "Foreclosure Friday". The toll this week is 8 banks. One of the banks, Shore Bank, has ties to the Obama administration, Goldman Sachs, and other notables.
Eight Banks Shuttered as 2010 Failures Reach 118
Bloomberg reports
ShoreBank, ...
August 20, 2010, 9:34 pm, 752893
Inquiring minds are investigating
Texas MLS Residential Housing Activity and home sale statistics.
A tip of the hat to "Rob" who sent the above link.
July 2010 Sales ...
August 20, 2010, 3:34 pm, 752743
Ken Fisher says high levels of pessimism are a reason to buy stocks. Please consider
Kenneth Fisher Recommends Stocks as Pessimism Surges.
Rising levels of investor pessimism are a reason to buy equities now, billionaire Kenneth Fisher said today.
“I’m never going to be bearish when people are ...
August 20, 2010, 1:34 pm, 752656
In new accounting rules proposed by key regulators, businesses may have to start putting leases on their balance sheets. Corporations are howling already because many are up against debt limits right now.
The Economist discusses the "shocking new accounting rules" in
You gonna buy that?
August 20, 2010, 5:34 am, 752381
In response to
Creating Jobs Carries a Punishing Price, an article about Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. and why he is not hiring, I received an interesting email from "David" a reader who disagrees with Mr. Fleischer's stated reasons for not hiring.
One of the ...
August 19, 2010, 9:34 pm, 752287
On August 11, President Obama signed a
$26 billion jobs bill to aid state payrolls. $10 billion of was targeted for schools. Not counting bank bailouts, over $1 trillion in stimulus money has been authorized, most of it already spent wasted.
The Washington Post comments ...
All ...
August 19, 2010, 3:34 pm, 752138
They may call economics the "dismal science" but it would be hard pressed to find a more optimistic lot than economists, anywhere in private industry.
Fresh on the heels of a perfect 42 of 42 overoptimistic predictions on weekly claims (Please see
Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, ...
August 19, 2010, 1:34 pm, 752047
Mr. Fleischer, president of Bogen Communications Inc. in Ramsey, N.J., explains "
Why I'm Not Hiring"
With unemployment just under 10% and companies sitting on their cash, you would think that sooner or later job growth would take off. I think it's going to be later—much ...
August 19, 2010, 1:34 pm, 752046
Once again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys.
Bloomberg reports
Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose ...
August 19, 2010, 5:35 am, 751749
In response to
Oregon Wins Blue Ribbon for Unfounded Optimism; Everything "Weaker than Expected" several astute readers sent me a link to a Heritage Foundation article regarding public unions, collective bargaining, and their role in the state budget crisis.
Inquiring minds are reading
Another Taxpayer ...
August 18, 2010, 11:34 pm, 751631
I have been wondering how long it would take for a state to proclaim everything is weaker than expected. Today the state of Oregon has the dubious honor of being first.
OregonLive reports
With projected revenues dropping by as much as $1 billion, Oregon leaders debate what ...
August 18, 2010, 5:34 pm, 751588
Spiegel Online International reports
Tensions Rise in Greece as Austerity Measures BackfireThe austerity measures that were supposed to fix Greece's problems are dragging down the country's economy. Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are ...
August 18, 2010, 3:34 pm, 751508
In response to the question
"Are Stocks a Screaming Buy Relative to Bonds?" I received many comments that I would like to share.
On False Premises
My friend Rich replies ....
Hello Mish
You said: "The first mistake is assuming choices ...
August 18, 2010, 1:34 pm, 751430
Josh Lipton writing for Minyanville is asking the question
Are Stocks a Screaming Buy Relative to Bonds?Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research takes one side of the debate and says "stocks are cheap" according to a model, now dubbed the “Fed’s Stock Valuation Model”.
I am ...
August 18, 2010, 3:34 am, 751121
There is lots of Mideast tension in the news this week including alleged Russian delivery of nuclear fuel to Iran, Russian military defense of Iran, other weapons procurement by Iran, and various threats and counter-threats.
Given that Bloomberg is reporting on the story, at least some of the news ...
August 17, 2010, 7:34 pm, 751019
A recent Gallup survey shows
Obama Sees New Lows in Job ApprovalPresident Obama's job approval rating dipped to 44% for the week of Aug. 9-15, the lowest weekly average of his administration by one percentage point.
August 17, 2010, 1:34 pm, 750799
Excluding autos and gas retail sales ran out of steam in July 2010. Please consider the SpendingPulse Report
July Retail Sales Show Mixed Results.
After several months of sales slowdown, total retail sales have stabilized somewhat, although overall growth has slowed sharply since earlier this year. ...
August 17, 2010, 5:34 am, 750491
Imbalances in Asia continue to mount as Japan slides precariously towards another recession. Please consider
Japan Slowdown Amid Yen Rise Adds Pressure for ActionJapan’s weakest economic growth in three quarters adds pressure on policy makers to safeguard the recovery by expanding fiscal spending and loosening monetary policy to ...
August 16, 2010, 9:34 pm, 750356
August 16, 2010, 3:34 pm, 750204
Treasury bears have been waiting a long time for China to start selling treasuries. It finally happened (not that two months is that much of a trend). Nonetheless, treasury bears got their wish. The result was not what they expected but it is what I expected: US demand picked up.
August 16, 2010, 1:34 pm, 750124
It should not be too long before Congress starts threatening China with "currency manipulation charges" given the Renminbi (Yuan), has now fallen five consecutive days and sits below the level it was at when China announced the end of the peg in June.
The Telegraph reports
US ...
August 16, 2010, 11:34 am, 750033
Prices received by manufacturers in the Empire State Fed Survey stood in negative territory for the second consecutive month, while new orders and sales dipped below zero for the first time in a year. Once again, ever-optimistic economists expected a better report.
Please consider the
Empire State ...
August 16, 2010, 1:34 am, 749806
As investors search for yield anywhere and everywhere, bonds are trading in uncharted territory. Please consider
Obama Wins Low Yield as Markets Shrink Aiding DeficitBond investors seeking top-rated securities face fewer alternatives to Treasuries, allowing President Barack Obama to sell unprecedented sums of debt at ever lower ...
August 15, 2010, 3:34 pm, 749708
United Federation of Teachers Fires Employee for Starting a Union
The United Federation of Teachers wants to have nothing to do with unions, at least for its own ...
August 15, 2010, 3:34 pm, 749707
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, Co-founders, Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), continue to pour out statements about the ECRI WLI that are worth taking a close look at, if not outright challenging them.
Please consider
Know How to Read WLI.
Sir, “Out on a limb, the ECRI weekly ...
August 15, 2010, 1:34 am, 749478
The bigger the debt, the less likely a debt collector is to get anything says Clark Terry, the chief executive of Utah Loan Servicing. Please consider
Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home EquityDuring the great housing boom, homeowners nationwide borrowed ...
August 14, 2010, 1:34 pm, 749424
Aaron Task has a nice interview with former bank regulator William Black on our
"Really Stupid Strategy" to Hide Bank Losses109 U.S. banks have failed so far this year, 23 in this quarter alone. These failures may not cost depositors, but they do come at a steep cost ...
August 13, 2010, 3:34 pm, 749208
Once gain ever optimistic economists were off on the high side as
Retail Sales Rise Less Than ForecastSales at U.S. retailers rose less than forecast and consumer confidence held near an eight-month low, indicating the economic slowdown will persist into the second half of 2010.
Purchases in ...
August 13, 2010, 3:34 pm, 749207
In the wake of
anemic retail sales in July, treasuries could have been expected to rally and they did.
Yield Curve as of 2008-08-13
Curve ...
August 13, 2010, 1:34 am, 748830
Stories about public unions are now routinely making the front pages of national newspapers and magazines. Thus, the problem recognition phase is finally here.
I discussed two such articles on Sunday and Monday
Huge Battle Looms Over Public Pensions - Who Will (Who Should) Foot the ...
August 12, 2010, 7:34 pm, 748748
A new Gallup Poll shows
Spending Slumps Even With Back-to-School UnderwayAmericans' self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $62 per day during the week ending Aug. 8. Early August consumer spending trends trail 2009 and will need to surge to match last year's anemic ...
August 12, 2010, 3:34 pm, 748635
Bloomberg reports
Junk Bonds’ Record Sales Leading to IndigestionJunk bonds are losing momentum as the busiest week on record for sales of the debt and a warning from the Federal Reserve about the outlook for the economy drives up relative borrowing costs.
The extra yield investors demand ...
August 12, 2010, 1:34 pm, 748547
The Wall Street Journal claims
U.S. Firms Build Up Record Cash PilesU.S. companies are holding more cash in the bank than at any point on record, underscoring persistent worries about financial markets and about the sustainability of the economic recovery.
The ...
August 12, 2010, 9:34 am, 748330
It's time for an international roundup including Japan, Australia, Europe, England, and the United States. Let's kick things off with a look at the Yen.
Japanese officials are busy yapping away, hoping to talk down the Yen, which as hit 15-year highs vs. the US dollar.
Bloomberg reports ...
August 11, 2010, 7:34 pm, 748088
Reading headlines alone, one might wonder if two headlines from today on Cisco were from the same quarter.
Bloomberg reports
Cisco Misses Estimates on Sluggish Corporate SpendingMeanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports
Cisco Profit Jumps 79%Cisco Systems Inc. ...
August 11, 2010, 3:34 pm, 747960
Now that it's perfectly obvious to everyone on the planet that the recovery is not much more than burnt toast,
Economists Cut U.S. Growth ForecastsA lack of jobs will shackle consumer spending and restrain the U.S. recovery more than previously estimated, according to economists polled by Bloomberg ...
August 11, 2010, 3:34 pm, 747959
Now that it's perfectly obvious to everyone on the planet that the recovery is not much more than burnt toast,
Economists Cut U.S. Growth ForecastsA lack of jobs will shackle consumer spending and restrain the U.S. recovery more than previously estimated, according to economists polled by Bloomberg ...
August 11, 2010, 11:34 am, 747788
Curve Watchers Anonymous is paying close attention to the following snip from the Bloomberg article
Pimco Calls Fed Rate Policies ‘Good for Risk Assets’The central bank said in a separate statement that it will announce a purchasing schedule today and that its buying will be concentrated “in ...
August 10, 2010, 9:34 pm, 747407
While most eyes were focused on the FOMC meeting, I did something far more enjoyable, and probably far more sensible as well. I went golfing.
Upon return I see a new but meaningless twist in Bernanke's statements in the latest
FOMC Press Release.
Information received since the ...
August 10, 2010, 3:34 pm, 747292
Neither the treasury market nor small business trends reflect the incessant optimism of the stock market. These will eventually align, when I do not know.
Please consider
NFIB Small Business Economic Trends for August 2010.
OPTIMISM INDEX
August 10, 2010, 7:34 am, 746946
In response to
Will Quantitative Easing Spur Inflation? Job Creation? Credit Expansion? Do Anything? (a point-by-point discussion of thoughts from Chris Ciovacco at Ciovacco Capital Management regarding quantitative easing), I received a nice reply from Chris.
Chris writes ...
Hello Mish:
I agree with your comments ...
August 9, 2010, 9:34 pm, 746731
Cities and states are running out of cash. In response
Governments Go to Extremes as the Downturn Wears On. Here are few examples from the article.
Hawaii Furloughs Its Children
Four-day weeks have been used by a small number of rural school districts ...
August 9, 2010, 3:34 pm, 746553
Previously I did a tongue-in-cheek post claiming that the
Financial Reform Bill was a Stunning Success given that it accomplished virtually nothing while doing no further major economic damage.
Today I see I was overly optimistic (which as regular readers know is simply part of my nature).
August 9, 2010, 5:34 am, 746184
Bill Watkins, a California Lutheran University professor, provides a nice summary on New Geography of the failure of various stimulus efforts to do anything meaningful in the wake of a collapse by Lehman, a collapse he says is a "regime shift".
Please consider
Flexible Forecasting: Looking ...
August 8, 2010, 7:34 pm, 746111
Public pension plans are $1 to $3 trillion underfunded. I think the number is closer to $3 trillion and destined to get worse. However, even $1 trillion is a massive problem.
With so much at stake, a
Battle Looms Over Huge Costs of Public PensionsThere’s a class ...
August 8, 2010, 3:34 pm, 746089
Today's Sunday Funnies is a bit more sobering than I like.
Here goes.
I will have more thoughts about unemployment later this week.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
August 7, 2010, 11:34 pm, 745890
In an effort to save fuel
Modern cargo ships slow to the speed of the sailing clippersThe world's largest cargo ships are travelling at lower speeds today than sailing clippers such as the Cutty Sark did more than 130 years ago.
A combination of the recession and ...
August 7, 2010, 5:34 pm, 745872
A Gallup poll shows underemployment is holding steady at 18.4%, a couple points higher than the BLS number from Friday's jobs report.
Please consider
U.S. Underemployment Steady at 18.4% in JulyUnderemployment
Underemployment, as measured by Gallup, was 18.4% in July, essentially unchanged from ...
August 7, 2010, 3:34 pm, 745863
Following is a visualization of bank failures this year. Friday's failure of Ravenswood Bank in Chicago, Illinois (not shown). A quick look at the Texas Ratios and other data will show you why they failed. List is sorted by date. Hover over the ...
August 6, 2010, 5:34 pm, 745602
In the wake of yet another anemic jobs report,
Two-Year Treasury Notes Drop to Record Low Yield.
Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year note yields below 0.50 percent for the first time, after the government’s payrolls report showed the economy lost more jobs in July than economists forecast.
“Everything you ...
August 6, 2010, 1:34 pm, 745405
This morning the BLS reported a decrease of 131,000 jobs. However, that reflects a decrease of 143,000 temporary census workers.
Excluding the census effect, government lost 59,000 jobs. Were the trend to continue, this would be a good thing because Firing Public Union Workers Creates ...
August 6, 2010, 5:34 am, 745096
St. Louis Fed James Bullard's proposal to start "quantitative easing" is creating a stir. Chris Ciovacco at Ciovacco Capital Management (and many others) propose the Fed can and will use quantitative easing to induce inflation. I disagree.
The following are snips from Chris Ciovacco's article,
Reading Between The ...
August 5, 2010, 3:34 pm, 744745
In response to
ADP vs. BLS Job Reports - Who to Believe? I had an interesting Email discussion with Ernst Mayer who writes ...
I think there is an important additional point that should be made: BLS’ birth-death model is supposed to be able to predict/model business ...
August 5, 2010, 1:34 pm, 744653
SpendingPulse Reports
Retail Sales in Holding PatternMasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse, a macro-economic report tracking national retail and service sales, today provided summary results for performance of specific U.S. retail industries in July, 2010. This month, sales in most categories remained mostly flat compared to July 2009 in contrast to ...
August 5, 2010, 3:34 am, 744328
The
ADP July National Employment report is out. Let's take a look.
Private sector employment increased by 42,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today.
July’s rise in private employment was the sixth consecutive monthly gain. ...
August 4, 2010, 5:34 pm, 744097
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, co-founders of ECRI maintain the
ECRI' WLI Weekly Leading Index (Still) Widely MisunderstoodI am going to cut to the chase because all Achuthan and Banerji did in that piece is blow smoke without addressing the critical issue. Here is the key ...
August 4, 2010, 3:34 pm, 743987
In a welcome but choppy and exceptionally slow start in terms of what needs to happen, some public unions are agreeing to pay cuts in order to save jobs. In other cases, cities are imposing their will with unions fighting every step of the way.
Please consider the New ...
August 4, 2010, 5:34 am, 743611
Job estimates are often difficult to predict because month-to-month variances can swing wildly. However, census firing is about to take back another chunk of census hiring and I expect another bad looking jobs report this month.
Interestingly, Geithner is making excuses in advance.
Please consider
August 3, 2010, 11:34 pm, 743533
Corporate hiring has been in a weak but generally improving condition from January through June according to a Gallup Poll. That positive trend is now broken as noted in
U.S. Job Creation Remains Level in JulyGallup's Job Creation Index finds job growth essentially unchanged for the third consecutive ...
August 3, 2010, 3:34 pm, 743283
Inquiring minds are digging into the BEA report
Personal Income and Outlays, June 2010Personal Income
Personal income increased $3.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $5.1 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of ...
August 3, 2010, 3:34 am, 742858
Bernanke thinks consumers are going to sustain the economy, but small businesses, the lifeblood of the economy sure disagree. Please consider
Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index Hits New Low in JulyThe Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index -- which measures small-business owners' perceptions of six measures of their current ...
