Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

- Recent Entries


November 27, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378961
It’s no surprise that every company and industry in America wants to understand millennials. They’d best avoid these nonfacts. Bloomberg News

It has become difficult to avoid ...


November 27, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378960
ECB President Mario Draghi European Pressphoto Agency

Just sharing a currency isn’t enough for the eurozone to defy its skeptics, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi ...


November 27, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378959
Here are five things to know about the U.S. economy when talk turns to mortgage rates and millennials at the Thanksgiving table.


November 27, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1378953
(November 27, 2014 01:17 PM, by Scott Sumner) This post is meant to be a sort of opening inquiry into what might become an important issue in the 21st century. I don't have strong views on the question. You may recall that Thomas Piketty assumed that savers can... (0 COMMENTS)


November 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378951

Who moves first, and who moves last? In a game between the monetary authority and the fiscal authority, the order of moves matters. Just like in Stackelberg duopoly, where the effect of an increase in one firm's quantity will depend on whether the other firm is the leader and has ...


November 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378950
The EU's attempt to breakup Google gets more absurd by the day. I wrote about this just yesterday in Google vs. Sun vs. France: Too Big, Too Powerful, Too Free.

I have a few more EU proposals regarding Google worth discussing, but first I have a few ...


November 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378949

OPEC countries failed Thursday to agree to a cut in oil production that was desperately sought by some member states worried about the recent drop in prices.

Officials met for six hours of negotiations in Vienna. It would have been the first cut in production since 2008.

via


November 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378948
A UC Berkeley Ph.D. student named Liz Carlisle has written a smart NY Times pieceproviding some examples of how farmers in rural places such as Conrad, Montana and Valier, Montana are making "greener" choices in production in order to cope with the new conditions they face. These guys ...


November 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378947

1. About Those Union-Organized Black Friday Protests at 1,600 Walmarts. From my op-ed in tomorrow’s Investor’s Business Daily, “Black Friday Wal-Mart Protests Miss Mark On Pay Gap” (with Michael Saltsman):

What is overlooked or ignored by labor unions and anti-Wal-Mart organizations is that it takes highly compensated, superstar-level managerial talent ...


November 27, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378924

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Not sure how much blogging I'll get done today:

Washington, D.C. October 3, 1863

By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation.

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies.

To these bounties, which are so ...


November 27, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378923

Simon Wren-Lewis:

As Mark Thoma often says, the problem is with macroeconomists rather than macroeconomics.

Much, much more here.


November 27, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378922
Each year since 2003, Merriam-Webster has listed the Words of the Year mostly based on the frequency that each word was looked up that year.

Some years the "words of the year" have been relevant to Calculated Risk, as an example, in 2004 the word of the year ...


November 27, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378921
From the WSJ: OPEC Leaves Production Target Unchanged

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its 12 members, who collectively pump around one-third of the world’s oil, would comply with its current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. That would involve a supply cut of ...


November 27, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1378919

Circa 1985:

Merkel, in her early thirties, was looking forward to 2014—when she would turn sixty, collect her state pension, and be allowed to travel to California.

That is from the George Packer profile of Angela Merkel, which I will recommend to you all once again, do note it starts ...


November 27, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378885
A


November 27, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378884
A


November 27, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378883

Yesterday, I questioned George Osborne's economic competence. In one sense, though, it is a little unfair to single him out. Back in the summer, Ed Miliband wibbled that "we won’t have the money" and pledged to "balancing the books in the next government" - ...


November 27, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378882
(November 27, 2014 07:48 AM, by Art Carden) First, I want to thank everyone who submitted requests for my last few posts before my EconLog guest stint ends. I'll answer as many as I can and schedule a series of posts for the next few days. Second, Happy... (0 COMMENTS)


November 27, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378881
(November 27, 2014 11:55 AM, by David Henderson) I'm up early this Thanksgiving day, before my wife and daughter. My daughter came home from San Francisco yesterday afternoon and for that alone I'm thankful. She, my wife, and a friend had a great visit last night. Now to... (0 COMMENTS)


November 27, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378831
ECB President Mario Draghi European Pressphoto Agency

Just sharing a currency isn’t enough for the eurozone to defy its skeptics, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi ...


November 27, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378830
Here are five things to know about the U.S. economy when talk turns to mortgage rates and millennials at the Thanksgiving table.


November 27, 2014, 8:44 am, 1378829
A


November 27, 2014, 8:44 am, 1378828
A


November 27, 2014, 8:44 am, 1378827

I HAVE been reading a new book on economic history. Cambridge University Press recently published “The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain” (CEHMB). It is highly recommended.

The first edition of the CEHMB was published in 1981 (a few people in the ...


November 27, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378826
The celebration on the fourth Thursday of November resonates deeply in the American psyche, but the historical source of Thanksgiving’s legacy across the centuries rests on a surprisingly thin slice of documentation. In fact, “the only surviving first-hand account of a celebration in 1621 comes from the pen of Edward ...


November 27, 2014, 8:04 am, 1378825
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from Caroline Baum’s Nov. 25th e21 article, “Giving Thanks for Property Rights“:

One of the traditions the Pilgrims had brought with from England was a practice known as “farming in common” (the “common course and condition” to [Gov. William] Bradford). Everything produced became community property, ...


November 27, 2014, 7:03 am, 1378771
It’s no surprise that every company and industry in America wants to understand millennials. They’d best avoid these nonfacts. Bloomberg News

It has become difficult to avoid ...


November 27, 2014, 6:44 am, 1378769

A major concern with multinationals is that they can cause disemployment (also called job offshoring). However, FDI could offset or even exceed such a negative effect. This column examines to what extent disemployment in Japan is related to FDI. The results suggest that disemployment in Japan is driven by substitution ...


November 27, 2014, 6:44 am, 1378770

The post-Crisis G7 economies have suffered weak business investment despite record low interest rates and the favourable financial positions of corporates. Some consider this the ‘new normal’ arising from secular, supply-side forces that have contributed to declining potential growth rates. This column argues that structural factors alone are not sufficient ...


November 27, 2014, 6:04 am, 1378768
My reaction was “tell me something I don’t know already” when I read that phase 1 trials of an Ebola vaccine at the National Institutes of Health have shown that it is safe. My dad works on the NIH campus and he told me about the trial weeks ago. The ...


November 27, 2014, 5:33 am, 1378767

A small bit of genius. Happy Thanksgiving.

(I didn't expect this: Mr. Guthrie now is a registered Republican and "often expound[s] libertarian themes".)


November 27, 2014, 5:23 am, 1378766

A mansion tax (or property tax) would be an annual progressive charged that would be paid by homeowners. It is effectively a tax on housing wealth. The Labour party has suggested implementing a property tax on homes worth over £2 million. ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378716
South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378715

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378712

Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts.

So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378713
 Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout..

Ireland’s central bank ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378714

U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose ...


November 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378711

November 27, 2014, 4:05 am, 1378710

FDR once tried to move Thanksgiving, as an act of economic stimulus.  If Putin is going to recreate some version of a non-communist yet Soviet-like empire in his part of the world, perhaps he could also bring back the 24-game world chess championship match?  Season four of Homeland ...


November 27, 2014, 3:03 am, 1378671

After you watch these timely videos, you'll have a much better appreciation for our suggested conversation tips for this year's Thanksgiving dinner. Because otherwise, they could be a lot like this:

Or if ...


November 27, 2014, 2:05 am, 1378670

Paul Krugman has an interesting blog post arguing that Keynes is slowly winning.  But, I must admit, I find it dismaying how little of the contrary evidence is considered.  Let’s say you set out to write a blog post about Keynes losing, what might you cite?:

1. Keynesians predicted ...


November 27, 2014, 2:04 am, 1378669
This Burtless Brookings Blog post really is a must read. Burtless notes that taxes and transfers (including both ARRA and automatic responses to the recession) prevented huge income declines for the lower 60% of US households during the great recession. In contrast high income households were hammered. Federal policy actually ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1378635
A


November 26, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1378628
A


November 26, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1378627
A


November 26, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1378626
Dan here…sometimes just economics isn’t enough even on an economics blog. This sermon was lightly edited for readability. by Rev. Nathan Detering  (First Parish Sherborn, MA) Longing for More, Wanting What We Have “Have compassion for everyone you meet even if they don’t want it. What seems conceit, bad ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1378619
Fannie Mae reported yesterday that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in October to 1.92% from 1.96% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.48% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since October 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in ...


November 26, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1378617
If you are traveling tonight or tomorrow, please take extra time.

If you are traveling by plane, please check your flight schedule. Hundreds of flights have been cancelled, thousands of other flights delayed.

Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare

Accuweather reports Snowstorm Creates Thanksgiving Travel Nightmare in East


November 26, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1378616

We hear all the time that “the rich aren’t paying their fair share of taxes” (you’ll find more than 1,000,000 Google search results for that phrase). Early last year Obama reiterated his belief that the wealthiest Americans still aren’t paying their “fair share” of taxes. Here’s an analysis using recent ...


November 26, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1378592
A


November 26, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1378591

EconTalk host Russ Roberts welcomes back University of Chicago's Emily Oster in this week's episode, in which they discuss the differences in infant mortality rates across nations, as well as the challenges and opportunities afforded by health data.

Share your thoughts on this week's conversation by responding to any or ...


November 26, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1378589

…of those in middle-skill occupations who remain in a full-time job, about 83 percent are still working in a middle-skill job one year later. … What types of jobs are the other 17 percent getting? Mostly high-skill jobs; and that transition rate has been rising. The percent going from a ...


November 26, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1378588
(November 26, 2014 07:35 PM, by David Henderson) Most mornings that I don't teach, I go out early to the local Safeway, where there's a Starbuck's, and get my wife a Grande non-fat latte. Tip to men who want a long-term successful marriage: If there are things you... (0 COMMENTS)


November 26, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1378587



To send you off with some more Thanksgiving good cheer, here is another out of the box Neo-Fisherian idea.

Perhaps the Fed (or the Treasury) should target ...


November 26, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1378556

In the Tuesday Wall Street Journal, Professor Alan Blinder wrote of his puzzlement at the very slow growth of productivity in the last three years. There is really no mystery. The rate of growth of investment in equipment in this economic recovery has lagged far behind that of ...


November 26, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1378555

Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts.

So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. ...


November 26, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1378554
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shillera month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Oct. 2014 Case-Shiller Prediction: Expect the Slowdown to Continue

The September S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) ...


November 26, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1378553

As occurred one year ago, when it first seemed to become a phenomenon, there’s a debate opening up about the decision of some of America’s major retailers to open on Thanksgiving Day as part of an ...


November 26, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1378550
Multiplier? What multiplier?Wall Street Journal, November 26 2014:

The economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than ...


November 26, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1378549
I happen to like the sun. By definition, the earth would not even be a planet without the sun. No one on earth would be alive without free sunshine.

I happen to like Google. I could survive without Google, but like the sun, much of what Google provides is ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378501

The Washington Post’s Wonkblog yesterday got to write a dramatic lede: “This is what oligarchy looks like.” The data described in the blog post are, in fact, fairly dramatic, but Wonkblog does not do a good job describing the data.

The problem starts with the headline: “The top 400 ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378500

FRANKFURT – The vice president of Germany’s central bank has warned that banks’ willingness to fully finance house purchases in the country’s big cities could ultimately hit their profits significantly, should urban real estate prices start to slide.

Bundesbank deputy Claudia Buch also said, however, that at the moment rising house ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378495

U.S. corporations saw profits rise for three straight quarters and are up 3.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The estimate for corporate profits after tax, without inventory ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378496

GDP registered its best six-month stretch since 2003 in the period ending Sept. 30, Commerce Department data out Tuesday showed.

The resurgent growth alongside steady labor market improvements this year suggest the economy ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378494
A home for sale earlier this year in Miami, where home prices are up 10.3% over September last year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Getty Images

U.S. home prices ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378499
The OECD concludes that Japan has been in a stagnation trap for quite some time. Bloomberg News

The eurozone economy may have fallen into “a persistent ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378492
Google snapped up Boston Dynamics, which builds an experimental robot funded in part by the U.S. Marine Corps. that can carry 400 pounds of gear over 20 miles of ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378498
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney  told British lawmakers that the Monetary Policy Committee has not discussed the need for further stimulus despite weak inflation. Associated ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378497

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, November 25, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Schlesinger’s Take: The Internal, External Limits Facing BOJ Gov. Kuroda BOJ Governor Defends Easing Measures


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378493

The New York Fed’s latest report on household debt shows that the so-called deleveraging process, by which households reduced their debt burdens following the recession, has ended after around five ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378487

U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378486
 Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout..

Ireland’s central bank ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378488

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378489
South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378491

The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product to 3.9% from the advance reading of 3.5%.

The upgrade was a surprise. Indeed, none of the 30 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected GDP to be revised up. The rate ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378490

New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378485

Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts.

So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. ...


November 26, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1378484
A


November 26, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1378483

It is with great sadness that I pass along the news that Jean Braucher passed away yesterday. Jean was my co-author, my co-blogger, and my friend. This news came suddenly this morning for all but her closest family and friends who were aware of her illness. 

The official ...


November 26, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378480




November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378419

While over 90 percent of all firms have between 0 and 20 employees, these firms only employ 19.2 percent of all private sector workers. These small firms can be anything from coffee shops to small car dealerships and are organized as both pass-through businesses and C corporations.

On the other ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378418

At MoneyWatch:

Some Good News for the Unemployed: There has been considerable discussion of the “hollowing out” of middle class jobs in recent years, a trend that started before the Great Recession. But where do those who have lost their jobs go? Do they end up with low paying ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378417

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Understanding George Osborne: Yesterday I spoke at the Resolution Foundation’s launch of their analysis of the UK political parties’ fiscal plans post 2015. I believe this analysis shows two things very clearly. First, there is potentially a large gap between the amount of austerity planned ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378416

[Travel day, so no more until later.]

Paul Krugman:

Keynes Is Slowly Winning: Back in 2010, I had a revelation about just how bad economic policy was about to get; I read the OECD Economic Outlook, which called not just for fiscal austerity but for interest rate hikes ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378415
The new home sales report for October was below expectations at 458 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

Also, sales for the previous three months (July, August and September), were revised down.

Sales this year are significantly below expectations, however, based on the ...


November 26, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1378414
A


November 26, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1378413

IT IS tempting for economists to couch Europe’s great debates—over immigration, burden-sharing, competitiveness—in technocratic terms. What effect do new arrivals have on the wages of the local population? How can debts be mutualised without giving debtor countries an incentive to spend wildly? But cold logic fails to capture the emotional ...


November 26, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1378409

The most contentious may be one put forward by a group called Ecopop, which would limit immigration to 0.2 per cent of the resident population. That has alarmed businesses, who worry it would make it harder to hire skilled staff and sour relations with the EU, which is Switzerland’s largest ...


November 26, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1378408
(November 26, 2014 01:04 PM, by David Henderson) The problem starts with the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal agency that sets prices for the medical services of Medicare patients. CMS is really a giant central-planning agency. It sets hundreds of thousands of prices. What... (0 COMMENTS)


November 26, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1378407
Dan here…this piece is originally published at Oxford University Press by Angry Bear Edward Lambert. by Edward Lambert Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378403

“Air quality has improved dramatically over the past decades, and air quality will continue to improve under the existing standards,” said Howard Feldman, director of regulatory affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for the oil industry. “The current review of health studies has ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378402
In 1951, a "High Pop Automatic Toaster" was priced at $21 dollars (nominal $). In 2014, Kohl's is selling a better $5 (nominal $) toaster. I realize that this is a simplified consumer price index but this 76% reduction in price is the tip of the iceberg. ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378401

This post has been an annual tradition at CD now for several years:

Like in previous years, most of you probably didn’t call your local supermarket ahead of time and order a Thanksgiving turkey this year. Why not? Because you automatically assumed that a turkey would be there when you showed ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378339

In the debate over the tax extenders, the 55 or so tax provisions that need to be extended year after year, it’s easy to just throw up your hands and say: “let’s just get rid of them all- they are just a bunch of wasteful loopholes that benefit the ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378338

U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378337
 Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout..

Ireland’s central bank ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378336
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458 thousand.

September sales were revised down from 467 thousand to455 thousand, and August sales were revised down from 466 thousand to453 thousand.

"Sales of new single-family houses in ...


November 26, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378335
A


November 26, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378334
A


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378333
Personal income and spending posted modest gains in today’s October update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), albeit at monthly rates (+0.2% on both counts) that fell short of the crowd’s expectations. The usual suspects will fuss over the monthly comparisons and try to spin context out of ...


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378332

The FT reports that George Osborne wants to make unicorn farming compulsory:

The new fiscal mandate is expected to enshrine in law one area of common ground between the Tories and Lib Dems: that the cyclically adjusted current deficit should be eliminated by 2017-18.

This is ...


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378331
A


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378330
Teaser:


November 26, 2014, 10:05 am, 1378327

November 26, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378326
(November 26, 2014 09:31 AM, by Bryan Caplan) John Cochrane's grumpy about the state of behavioral political economy. From his review of Schnellenbach and Schubert's recent literature review:I came away horribly disappointed. Not with the paper, but with the state of the literature that the authors ably summarize.... (0 COMMENTS)


November 26, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378325
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 44-45 of my colleague Richard Wagner’s deeply insightful 1996 monograph, Economic Policy in a Liberal Democracy:

Suppose medical care is financed through state budgets, or, equivalently, through private insurance that is constrained by government to charge common pricing.  Once this happens, a new network of ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378263

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378262
The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 291,000 to 292,000. The 4-week moving average was 294,000, an ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378261
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October:

Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.3 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove ...


November 26, 2014, 8:44 am, 1378260
A


November 26, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378259
Clarity is a virtue when it comes to the business cycle. It’s also unusual. The US is an exception, or at least it has been, according to Scott Sumner, an economist at Bentley University and a prolific blogger on macro matters. “The US has a really weird economy,” he writes. ...


November 26, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378258

With all the news about Ferguson and other commitments, I missed the news that economic growth in the 3rd Quarter had been revised significantly upward to 3.9% in the latest report from the Department of Commerce:

The nation’s economic output grew at an even faster rate during July, August ...


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378253

Chester Finn reviews where we're at. Short take: a lot done, a lot more to do.


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378255

Amazing and wonderful.

Then out of nowhere, a white Chevrolet van hit them at 75mph, an absurd speed for the neighbourhood. Marcy was killed outright and Lewis was so thoroughly broken that the paramedic on the scene took him for dead. The Chevrolet driver, meanwhile, fled the ...


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378254

George Will:

It is as remarkable as it is repulsive, the ingenuity with which the Obama administration uses the regulatory state’s intricacies to advance progressivism’s project of breaking nongovernmental institutions to government’s saddle. Eager to sacrifice low-income children to please teachers unions, theJustice Department wantsto ...


November 26, 2014, 6:34 am, 1378192
● US GDP grows at better-than-expected 3.9% pace in third quarter | LA Times ● UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.7% for Q3 | Marketwatch ● Bank of England will raise rates despite euro gloom, says Mark Carney | Telegraph ● Saudis signal no push for oil cut as market ...


November 26, 2014, 5:33 am, 1378190

I read this and I just had to buy a bag. (They are awfully good.)


November 26, 2014, 5:33 am, 1378189



(p. A1) EASTON, N.Y. -- Something strange is happening at farms in upstate New York. The cows are milking themselves.

Desperate for reliable labor and buoyed by soaring prices, dairy operations across the state are charging into a brave new world of udder care: robotic milkers, which feed ...


November 26, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378127

November 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1378126

To reduce the risk of international commerce banks offer specific trade finance products, the most prominent being letters of credit. This column employs US banking data to show that reductions in the supply of such trade finance have considerable effects on the levels and patterns of exports, especially to small ...


November 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1378125

The importance of world shocks for the UK economy has been demonstrated by the events since 2007. This column suggests that world shocks are likely to have driven around two-thirds of the shortfall in output since 2007. Trade linkages are an important channel for the transmission of world shocks to ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 am, 1378078

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table.

We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year, ...


November 26, 2014, 2:05 am, 1378077

We are running a contest for MRU, and the goal is to figure out how economists ought to be put on cereal boxes.  Imagine that a famous economist would in fact be represented by a cereal and a cereal box.  For example there would be:

Thomas Piketty, ...


November 26, 2014, 2:05 am, 1378076

If you are going to ask “when will China clean up its air?”, you might wish to look at South Korea, a country with a broadly similar industrial profile, although of course Korea is much further along in terms of economic development.

As of 2002, South Korea was ranked ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 am, 1378037

There is a lot of discussion of how economic slack is fast disappearing, and I expect a lot of push on this view, given continued rapid growth in GDP as reported in today’s second release for 2014Q3. This view seems counter to (1) the CBO estimate of potential GDP and ...


November 26, 2014, 12:04 am, 1378035
(Don Boudreaux)

In my latest column for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review I ponder various kinds and degrees of insignificance of individual human choices and actions.

I wrote this column before completing my reading of Russ’s brilliant new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.  While finishing my reading of Russ’s book ...