Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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March 31, 2015, 2:05 am, 1448063

Colin M. MacLachlan, in his splendid Imperialism and the Origins of Mexican Culture, reports:

1. Corn gruel and tamales were reinforced with fish, seeds of various kinds, fruit, and honey.

2. Beans were supplanted with meat from iguanas, armadillos, and rabbits.

3. The calcium content of corn was (and still is) ...


March 31, 2015, 1:34 am, 1448062
Yet another central bank has announced a warning about the perils of deflation. Please consider China Central Bank Calls for Vigilance on Deflation.

China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned on Sunday that the country needs to be vigilant for signs of deflation and said policymakers were ...


March 30, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1448033

Japan and Korea need to encourage female labour market participation to counter acute labour shortages. This column argues that following Nordic countries’ experiences, it would be possible to achieve both high female labour force participation rate and fertility rate. However, this is only possible if supported by appropriate public and ...


March 30, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1448030
(March 30, 2015 09:34 PM, by Scott Sumner) The Guardian has a long piece on Lee Kuan Yew, with the following subtitle: The founding prime minister of an independent Singapore, he sought to encourage prosperity through ensuring a dominant role for the state The article also contains this:... (0 COMMENTS)


March 30, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1448029
(Don Boudreaux)


March 30, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1448028
Can you refuse service to gays and lesbians? You can in Indiana thanks to the "Religious Freedom" Bill.

Indiana Governor Mike Pence has signed a bill that would allow businesses to refuse service to gay and lesbian patrons on the grounds of “religious freedom”, even as ...


March 30, 2015, 9:23 pm, 1448027
Ben Bernanke is back and mulling over low interest rates. From the Washington Post:

Blogging isn't dead. At least, Ben Bernanke, former chairman of theFederal Reserve, doesn't think so: He's now blogging at the Brookings Institution. Inhis first post,he says he wants ...


March 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1448010

STONE MOUNTAIN, Ga.—The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official floated a series of ideas for regulating nonbank financial companies, the latest indication that top U.S. policy makers are focusing on risks in the so-called shadow banking sector.

“While there has been progress on the financial reform front, we should not be complacent ...


March 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1448009
From the WSJ: Fed’s Fischer Floats Ideas for Regulating Shadow Banks

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official floated a series of ideas for regulating nonbank financial companies, the latest indication that top U.S. policy makers are focusing on risks in the so-called shadow banking sector.

“While there ...


March 30, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1448006

Are women good, and men bad? Are men inferior to women? How many times have you heard that women are wiser, kinder, more efficient, and just all around superior human beings? A never ending succession of books and news stories suggests they are. AEI scholar Christina Hoff Sommers looks ...


March 30, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1447942
Retail wages fared a little better than compensation in manufacturing last year, rising 0.9% in real terms. BLOOMBERG NEWS

The U.S. isn’t the only place where


March 30, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1447940
By happenstance I heard today, Senator Warren’s interview on Here and Now. I just wonder, was the answer to the question about running for the Democratic Senate top position adamant enough for those who keep pushing to have her run for a leadership position?  How is it that some of ...


March 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1447938
Ben Bernanke just started his own blog at the Brookings Institute. His first post, from today, Inaugurating a New Blog is the announcement.

Let's dive into Bernanke's second post of the day: Why are Interest Rates So Low?

Bernanke: Low interest rates ...


March 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1447937

By David Austin (CBO)

Although freight transport contributes significantly to the productivity of the U.S. economy, it also involves sizable costs to society. Those costs include wear and tear on roads and bridges; delays caused by traffic congestion; injuries, fatalities, and property damage from accidents; and harmful effects from exhaust emissions. ...


March 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1447936

1. Amazon just launched “Home Services,” a new website platform that allows customers to shop for 700 different professional services, like general home repairs, installations, equipment assembly, home cleaning, auto repair, lessons, etc.

Here’s an excerpt from a report/review via The Verge:

Amazon started out as an online bookstore, but ...


March 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1447935

Here are three excellent videos for your enjoyment today on “Video Monday” – one new from Heather Mac Donald of the Manhattan Institute and two classics from Milton Friedman.

1. The Manhattan Institute’s Heather Mac Donald discusses the “university diversity scam” in the video above and explains ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447874
A cab makes its way across 42nd Street in the snow during the first day of spring in New York on March 20, 2015. Business economists expect strong consumer ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447870

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in February fell short of the central bank’s 2% target for the 34th straight month.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up only ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447871

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, March 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke to Seniors: Don’t Blame Me for Your Low CD Fed’s Janet Yellen ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447872

MONDAY

Fed’s Fischer speaks on “Nonbank Financial Intermediation, Financial Stability and the Road Forward” at a conference in Stone Mountain, Ga. at 7:15 p.m. EDT

TUESDAY

ECB’s Makuch speaks in Slovakia at 1200 GMT Richmond Fed’s ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447873
Getty Images

Look out economics bloggers. There’s a new guy in town.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is launching his own economics blog Monday at 6 a.m. ET.  It ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447869
BLOOMBERG NEWS

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he doesn’t know where the so-called full-employment level is now, saying the Fed “is in some sense groping” to determine it.

Full ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447868

Americans are squirreling away most of the money they’re getting from slowly rising incomes and cheaper gasoline.

The personal saving rate rose to 5.8% in February, the highest level in more than two ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447865
Job seekers wait in line to register for a job fair in California. But many people find jobs without ever reporting actively looking, say researchers at the San Francisco ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447866
The Congressional Budget Office under outgoing director Doug Elmendorf laid out most of its assumptions behind dynamic scoring. Getty Images

Dynamic scoring is great in theory. Can ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447867

Those hungry for central-bank news shouldn’t expect to hear much from the Bank of England for the next six weeks.

Britons go to the polls May 7 to elect a new government and the BOE is bound by “purdah” rules that prevent officials from speaking in public while the general election ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447864
Retail wages fared a little better than compensation in manufacturing last year, rising 0.9% in real terms. BLOOMBERG NEWS

The U.S. isn’t the only place where


March 30, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1447863
Note: This is a repeat of a post I wrote early this year. Based on some recent comments I've seen, I think this is worth repeating.

For amusement, I checked out the WSJ opinion page comments on the Q4 GDP report. As usual, the WSJ opinion is pure ...


March 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1447862
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March 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1447860
A


March 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1447861
A


March 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1447858
A


March 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1447859
A


March 30, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1447857
Teaser:

A ...


March 30, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1447856
Teaser:

Conservatism ...


March 30, 2015, 4:05 pm, 1447850

Bank of Bird-in-Hand is the only new bank to open in the U.S. since 2010, when the Dodd-Frank law was passed

The WSJ story is here, via Binyamin Appelbaum.


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447848
Resident Scholar Claude Barfield discusses the recent cyber attack by Chinese hackers against a U.S. website on Fox Business' 'Risk & Reward.'


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447849
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses his New York Times op-ed on how to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons on Fox Business' 'Varney & Co.'


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447847

Washington, March 30, 2015 – Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, today issued the following statement on the passing of AEI Resident Scholar John Makin:

“AEI has lost a friend and colleague today with the passing of John H. Makin. John and his wife, Gwendolyn, have been part of ...


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447846
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses the latest developments from the Iran nuclear negotiations on Fox News' 'The Real Story.'


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447845

Statement on the passing of Resident Scholar John H. Makin

Kevin A. Hassett, Director, Economic Policy Studies

Michael R. Strain, Deputy Director, Economic Policy Studies

The entire AEI family is deeply saddened by the loss of our friend and colleague, John Makin, who passed away this morning.

In the fall of 1984, after many ...


March 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1447844

Read the PDF.

Executive Summary

Democracy requires well-informed citizens, with the habits and mind-set required to maintain a free and self-governing society. Teachers, in turn, are key to establishing those habits of heart and mind on which democracies rely. As such, teachers benefit from exposure to professional development (PD) opportunities that refresh ...


March 30, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1447837
CoreLogic chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft says Strong Economic Growth To Propel US Housing Market in 2015.

The U.S. economy is poised to grow by close to 3 percent in 2015, generating a 3- to 3.5-million-person gain in employment. This job growth, coupled with very low ...


March 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1447776
The Congressional Budget Office under outgoing director Doug Elmendorf laid out most of its assumptions behind dynamic scoring. Getty Images

Dynamic scoring is great in theory. Can ...


March 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1447775
Job seekers wait in line to register for a job fair in California. But many people find jobs without ever reporting actively looking, say researchers at the San Francisco ...


March 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1447774
A


March 30, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1447773

Ukraine is telling investors it must trim external debt by $15.3 billion. Its bonds have CACs but no aggregation, and a 50% vote is needed to bind holdouts. (Modification requires a quorum of at least 2/3 in aggregate principal amount; 75% of "persons voting" must approve the modification.) Faced with some determined investors, ...


March 30, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1447768

What would you like him to cover?  Please don’t be rude, serious inquiries only.  On Twitter Ben claims he will cover “economics, finances, and sometimes baseball.”


March 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1447767
(March 30, 2015 03:52 PM, by David Henderson) Last summer, I highlighted famous Canadian whisky producer Sam Bronfman's claim that the greatest invention in history is interest. I then posted on how to get rich slowly and drew strongly on the idea of compound interest. Of course, I... (0 COMMENTS)


March 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1447766

Here’s what economists mean when they talk about stagnant middle-class incomes: In the first quarter century after World War Two, median household incomes rose by about 3% a year. Since then, about 0.2% a year, or virtually flat.

Why the big downshift? In a new analysis, Goldman Sachs cites a number ...


March 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1447765

AEI Fellow Robert Doar sits down with us this week to discuss poverty, welfare, and why the family is so important. We break down a five point talk he gave at CPAC and look at what needs to be done to get people back to work and off government assistance. ...


March 30, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1447761

From the inbox:

Dear Dr. Haab,

You agreed to review Manuscript Number XXXXXXX on 01-19-2015 and your completed review was due by 03-05-2015.

Your review is now 25 days late. Therefore I would be grateful if you would submit you review as soon as possible...

Sincerely,

John Whitehead

Associate Editor

*Alternative Title: I'm part of the problem.


March 30, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1447760

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (pictured above as a child preparing for his future role as Fed Chair) has started a new blog hosted by the Brookings Institution. You can also now follow Ben Bernanke on Twitter here.

The post


March 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1447698
The Friedman School's graduate student-organized research conference on "The Future of Food and Nutrition" will take place here in Boston on April 11 (registration here).

In addition to the excellent student research program, this annual event has particularly notable speakers this year. The topic is especially timely ...


March 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1447697
BLOOMBERG NEWS

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he doesn’t know where the so-called full-employment level is now, saying the Fed “is in some sense groping” to determine it.

Full ...


March 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1447696

Americans are squirreling away most of the money they’re getting from slowly rising incomes and cheaper gasoline.

The personal saving rate rose to 5.8% in February, the highest level in more than two ...


March 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1447695

Those hungry for central-bank news shouldn’t expect to hear much from the Bank of England for the next six weeks.

Britons go to the polls May 7 to elect a new government and the BOE is bound by “purdah” rules that prevent officials from speaking in public while the general election ...


March 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1447694
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens

Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years.


March 30, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1447693
A


March 30, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1447692

In its analysis of the tax reform plan proposed recently by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT), the Tax Foundation assumed the proposal would make the new personal credit ($2,000 for singles and $4,000 for married couples) fully refundable. This assumption helps explain why the group concluded the Lee-Rubio plan would ...


March 30, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1447691

Congress is in recess and the Daily Deduction will post Mondays until it reconvenes. We’ll be back to our regular schedule on April 13. 

With just over two weeks till Tax Day, Treasury wants to clarify Affordable Care Act tax facts. It released fact sheets on common exemptions from the ...


March 30, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1447690
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March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447685

There are still nearly two years left in Barack Obama’s presidency, but historians looking back on his record in foreign policy will surely identify one costly error: his refusal to follow through on the implied threat in stating that the Syrian regime’s use of chemical weapons would be a “red ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447686
Resident Fellow Edward Pinto discusses whether the government is creating another housing bubble on Fox Business' 'Stossel.'


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447683

This is one of the queries I heard most often when interviewing teachers for The Cage-Busting Teacher or just when talking about the issue of educators, public officials, and education policy. After all, talented educators regularly share their frustrations with this accountability system ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447684

Sir,

In referring to the possibility of Greece leaving the euro, your newspaper consistently uses the word “Grexit”. It would seem worth asking whether that choice is the most appropriate considering that “Grexodus” might better convey that notion.

Two arguments would favour “Grexodus”. The first is etymological. The English word “exit” is ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447681

The Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act may be the most important piece of budget process legislation ever enacted in the United States. Yet its essential rules and procedures, adopted 40 years ago, are no longer adequate to meet the most pressing fiscal challenge facing the nation: the rapid rise ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447682

The Student Success Act, a proposed reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act that advanced out of the GOP-dominated House Education and Workforce Committee, was put on hold several weeks ago amidst the Department of Homeland Security funding fight and concerns from some conservatives over whether it was truly ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447680

This article appears in the April 6th edition of The Weekly Standard print magazine. It can be accessed at www.weeklystandard.com.

Immediately after Israel’s March 17 election, Obama administration officials threatened to allow (or even encourage) the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian state ...


March 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1447679

It’s not just left-wing progressives and Occupy Wall Street remnants who think US income inequality is a problem. A large 2014 Pew poll found about two-thirds of Americans think the income gap has gotten worse and that government has a role ...


March 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1447618
Getty Images

Look out economics bloggers. There’s a new guy in town.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is launching his own economics blog Monday at 6 a.m. ET.  It ...


March 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1447617

MONDAY

Fed’s Fischer speaks on “Nonbank Financial Intermediation, Financial Stability and the Road Forward” at a conference in Stone Mountain, Ga. at 7:15 p.m. EDT

TUESDAY

ECB’s Makuch speaks in Slovakia at 1200 GMT Richmond Fed’s ...


March 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1447616

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, March 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke to Seniors: Don’t Blame Me for Your Low CD Fed’s Janet Yellen ...


March 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1447615

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation in February fell short of the central bank’s 2% target for the 34th straight month.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures was up only ...


March 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1447614
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise in February Behind Solid Gains in Midwest, West

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 3.1 percent to 106.9 in February from a slight downward revision of 103.7 in January and is now 12.0 percent above ...


March 30, 2015, 10:44 am, 1447613
A


March 30, 2015, 10:35 am, 1447612
Consumer spending in the US revived last month, rising 0.1% in February vs. January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. The gain is slightly below expectations among economists, although the increase is the first monthly advance since last November. The directional shift back into positive territory is encouraging, but a ...


March 30, 2015, 9:33 am, 1447607
Ben Bernanke has started a blog. Where did he ever come up with that title?


March 30, 2015, 9:33 am, 1447606

March 30, 2015, 9:33 am, 1447605
On 3/29/2015 4:32 PM, Adam Ozimek wrote:

John, I appreciated your recent post in reply to mine on carbon taxes. I've written a reply here where I've tried to make my point more explicitly and clearly, because I think there was some misunderstanding in terms of the case I was ...


March 30, 2015, 9:33 am, 1447604

The debate over the appropriate level for a central bank’s inflation objective reminds us of a 40-year-old Sherlock Holmes movie called “The Seven-Per-Cent Solution.” Convinced that Holmes’ addiction to cocaine (the solution in the title) had made him delusional, Watson took the master sleuth to Vienna to be treated ...


March 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1447542

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, March 30, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke to Seniors: Don’t Blame Me for Your Low CD Fed’s Janet Yellen ...


March 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1447541

The Economic Journal was among the first journals to come into existence. This is the first article of the 125th anniversary issue. The remaining articles are from notable economists (e.g. Stiglitz, Heckman, and many more) discussing seminal work that appeared in the Journal (the articles are relatively short):

Economic Journal ...


March 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1447540
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:

Personal income increased $58.6 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)increased $11.8 billion, or 0.1 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price ...


March 30, 2015, 8:44 am, 1447539

Abstentions in European Council voting are generally treated as silent consent, but in some cases a quorum of abstentions can block an otherwise unanimous decision. This column explores the relative merits of regimes with such constructive abstention rules. It shows that such rules combine the information aggregation aspects of majority ...


March 30, 2015, 8:35 am, 1447538
The US real estate market has been sluggish in recent history, but the latest numbers hint that the sector may enjoy a stronger run of growth in the spring. The supporting evidence is still thin, although the sales trend has clearly improved in February, particularly for purchases of newly built ...


March 30, 2015, 8:35 am, 1447537

Congress is in recess and the Daily Deduction will post Mondays until it reconvenes. We’ll be back to our regular schedule on April 13. 

With just over two weeks till Tax Day, Treasury wants to clarify Affordable Care Act tax facts. It released fact sheets on common exemptions from the ...


March 30, 2015, 8:05 am, 1447534

TEDx GMU has some interesting speakers. Always an excellent show. TEDxGeorgeMasonU Presents  The 4th Annual TEDx Conference  “Gathering STEAM”  at George Mason University  Sunday, May 3, 2015 at 10:30 a.m. 


March 30, 2015, 8:05 am, 1447533

Self-recommending!

For those of you who wonder what “self-recommending” means, now you ought to know…

Addendum: Modeled Behavior adds comment.


March 30, 2015, 8:05 am, 1447532

It is a busy morning, here is part of an email from an email from Cato:

The Cato Institute welcomes Peter Goettler, a former managing director at Barclays Capital, as its new President and CEO, effective April 1. Current CEO John Allison is retiring after more than two exemplary years on ...


March 30, 2015, 8:04 am, 1447531
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 12 of Julian Simon’s 1997 essay “More People, Greater Wealth, Expanded Resources, Healthier Environment,” as reprinted in the excellent 2000 collection Population: The Ultimate Resource (Barun S. Mitra, editor):

Population growth does not lower the standard of living – all the evidence agrees.  And the ...


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447525
Illustration by Andrew Rae, source New York Times
Adam Davidson has a very nice New York Times Magazine article, "Debunking the Myth of ...


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447524

Oh, I just bet they do.


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447523

Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson write, in effect, "Not necessarily."

(And guess what? Innovation seems to respond to incentives. Who knew?)


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447522

With this information I hadn't known:

But these explanations don’t help us explain political differences among Jews across countries or over time. American Jews share a religious tradition, historical inheritance, and minority status with most Jewish communities around the globe —and yet only Jews in the United ...


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447520

I certainly agree with Mr. Greenspun's last paragraph: the opportunity cost of college is often underemphasized, even neglected.

But this is too strong:

Economists, who get paid to teach at colleges, experiment with ways to get more young people from poorer-than-average families to become customers of colleges. Nobody ...


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447521

George Leef nicely makes the case for the 1971Griggs v. Duke Power decision as the root of the problem.

But it would be nice if there were a test of this. I haven't seen one.


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447519

Matthew Continetti does a superb job hammering James Wolcott and by extension all those who so fear and complain about the "very rich". Just terrific.

The character that emerges from McLean’s description of Hobson, I hasten to add, is sympathetic and winning. She was not born to ...


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447518
Jennie Bai and Or Shachar

Since their inception in 2002, credit default swap (CDS) indexes have gained tremendous popularity and become leading barometers of the credit market. Today, investors who want to hedge credit risk or to speculate can choose from a broad menu of ...


March 30, 2015, 7:03 am, 1447465

Of the many battles Ukraine and Russia are fighting, an argument about whether to call the $3 billion Kiev owes Moscow at the end of this year “official” or “private” debt may seem insignificant.


March 30, 2015, 7:03 am, 1447464
A cab makes its way across 42nd Street in the snow during the first day of spring in New York on March 20, 2015. Business economists expect strong consumer ...


March 30, 2015, 7:03 am, 1447462

MONDAY

Fed’s Fischer speaks on “Nonbank Financial Intermediation, Financial Stability and the Road Forward” at a conference in Stone Mountain, Ga. at 7:15 p.m. EDT

TUESDAY

ECB’s Makuch speaks in Slovakia at 1200 GMT Richmond Fed’s ...


March 30, 2015, 7:03 am, 1447463
Getty Images

Look out economics bloggers. There’s a new guy in town.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is launching his own economics blog Monday at 6 am ET.  It ...


March 30, 2015, 6:44 am, 1447461
A


March 30, 2015, 6:44 am, 1447460

David Skarbek of King's College London and author of The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the written and unwritten rules in America's prisons for the most violent and dangerous criminals. ...


March 30, 2015, 6:35 am, 1447459
● Business group’s outlook for U.S. economy improves | LA Times ● Eurozone economic sentiment improves in March | European Commission ● Economic Confidence Shows Euro-Area Recovery Defies Greek Risks | Bloomberg ● Japan Feb Factory Output Slumps on Weak Exports; Q1 Seen Up | MNI ● UK Financial Services ...


March 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1447456
An interesting article came my way from UBS analyst Julien Garran on the driver for gold. I do not have a link to share so excerpts will have to do.

Garran's article is one of the better one's I have seen. Unlike others, Garran does not cite jewelry, ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1447419

Today, we're going to follow up an observation we made when we examined the major trends for how the consumer spending patterns of Americans has changed from 1984 through the present, where we observed that since 2009, increases in expenditures for health insurance are ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1447418

March 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1447417

I am here today:

Royal Economic Society Conference 2015
University of Manchester, United Kingdom

March 30, 2015

09:00 to 11:00 Registration and Coffee/Tea, University Place Foyer 11:00 to 12:30 Special Sessions A 12:30 to 13:30 Buffet Lunch, Eats Restaurant 13:30 to 14:45 Sargan Lecture: Michael Keane: Labor Supply: ...


March 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1447416

Why doesn't the public know how successful Obamacare has been?:

Imaginary Health Care Horrors, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, the chairman of the House Rules Committee, recently ... declared the cost of Obamacare “unconscionable.” If you do “simple multiplication,” he insisted, ...


March 30, 2015, 4:05 am, 1447415

Here is the abstract of his piece “Air Conditioning, Migration, and Climate-Related Rent Differentials“:

This paper explores whether the spread of air conditioning in the United States from 1960 to 1990 affected quality of life in warmer areas enough to influence decisions about where to live, or to change ...


March 30, 2015, 4:04 am, 1447414
A


March 30, 2015, 2:05 am, 1447370

That is from Dianne Theodora Kenny, via Ted Gioia.  Kenny notes:

For male musicians across all genres, accidental death (including all vehicular incidents and accidental overdose) accounted for almost 20% of all deaths. But accidental death ...


March 30, 2015, 1:03 am, 1447356
A cab makes its way across 42nd Street in the snow during the first day of spring in New York on March 20, 2015. Business economists expect strong consumer ...


March 30, 2015, 12:44 am, 1447355
A


March 30, 2015, 12:34 am, 1447354

EP was traveling and reporting last week. He tackled a task too tricky for the time allotted to it when he returned home.

Back next week!


March 30, 2015, 12:04 am, 1447352

1. Another Week, Another Couple of Drug War Deaths: Body Count Up to 15 for 2015.

2. Killed by Police: