Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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February 13, 2016, 11:33 am, 1608381
The Associated Press reports:

Conan's biggest regret at Harvard? Skipping economics

BOSTON (AP) — Conan O'Brien was a prankster during his Harvard years, but he also credits his success to hard work in the classroom. The late-night TV host spoke to an audience of Harvard University ...

February 13, 2016, 11:03 am, 1608368
The key economic report this week is January housing starts on Wednesday.

For prices, PPI and CPI will be released this week.

From manufacturing, January Industrial Production and the February NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, February 15th -----
All ...

February 13, 2016, 10:04 am, 1608367
(February 13, 2016 09:02 AM, by Emily Skarbek) Tim Besley's inaugural lecture as the W. Arthur Lewis Professor of Development Economics at LSE can best be summed up as drawing attention to the rise and importance of political economy for understanding questions of economic development. A brief... (0 COMMENTS)

February 13, 2016, 8:04 am, 1608357

A 3-minute introduction to the effect of geography on economic growth drawing on some of Jeff Sach’s classic works. Includes some surprising facts about continents and coastlines!

This video is from our Principles of Macroeconomics course. We cover the multiple ways in which geography can influence growth in more depth in ...

February 13, 2016, 8:04 am, 1608356
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 204 of the 1978 collection, edited by Eric Mack, of Auberon Herbert’s essays, The Right and ...

February 13, 2016, 8:04 am, 1608355
You heard it here first. And before you laugh see that I pretty much nailed New Hampshire in the post and comments Christie is Done. But Wow! What a Parting Shot! where I only made two real mistakes. I overestimated Carson’s numbers and slightly underestimated Bush’s. So this is a ...

February 13, 2016, 7:34 am, 1608352

"Nano impressions": very short but very cool.

February 13, 2016, 7:34 am, 1608351

"Looms" has a double meaning. Dean may have meant well, and the process may have gotten out of control, far beyond want he wanted, but it beganonhis watch.

February 13, 2016, 6:35 am, 1608346
● Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future By Paul Mason Review via The Guardian Mason, like Marx, believes that capitalism will collapse under the weight of its own internal contradictions. These include unsustainable levels of debt on the part of both individuals and nations (“2008 was the tremor in advance ...

February 13, 2016, 5:34 am, 1608345

". . . while time and metropolitan expansion have shrunk OldFlorida, there's still some Old Dixie left to find."

February 13, 2016, 5:33 am, 1608344

(p. 1) A hellbent quest for authenticity produced some indelible on-set moments for Alejandro G. Iñárritu as he directed "The Revenant," his two-and-a-half-hour opus of death, love and improvised surgery in the American West of the 1820s.

. . .

(p. 20) There were ...

February 13, 2016, 4:04 am, 1608341

Russian mammoth ivory exports have been increasing steadily, averaging approximately 17 tonnes per year for 1991-2000 and averaging 60 tonnes per year for 2001-2013.

It is estimated that the mammoth ivory beneath the tundra has the potential to cover several hundred years’ worth of current elephant ivory sales.

That is

February 13, 2016, 3:03 am, 1608337

February 13, 2016, 2:44 am, 1608336
The Eurozone’s ‘Banking Union’ created a system of banking supervision and a common institution to restructure troubled banks. There remain two issues, however, that need to be addressed:  banks are holding too much debt of their own sovereign, and deposit insurance is only backstopped at the national level. This column ...

February 13, 2016, 2:44 am, 1608335
Not everybody agrees that the Greek crisis means the EU needs more integration. This column, from the German Council of Economic Experts, argues that for as long as EZ members are unwilling to transfer national sovereignty over economic and financial policy to the European level, all reform proposals must withstand ...

February 13, 2016, 2:44 am, 1608334
The Eurozone is more crisis-prone than other major currency areas. This column suggests that due to its hybrid structure, the EZ is likely to remain crisis-prone in the near future. A main challenge is the specific insolvency risk to which the member states are exposed, which in the longer term ...

February 13, 2016, 2:44 am, 1608333
It has been claimed that recessions as a result of a financial crisis tend to last longer than normal recessions. This column asks whether early intervention to help distressed banks during financial crises is effective in mitigating the consequences of financial distress. The evidence suggests that decisive and early recapitalisation ...

February 13, 2016, 1:34 am, 1608332

I'm just throwing this out there. Read at your own risk. I don't know what I'm talking about (even more than usual). I'm just thinking out loud, and being ornery. I will explain where I'm coming from after I've made my point.

There's a difference between "strategic complementarity" and "positive externalities". ...

February 13, 2016, 12:04 am, 1608323

I haven’t read through this paper (pdf) yet, but it seems quite important and here is the abstract:

For decades, migration economics has stressed the effects of migration restrictions on income distribution in the host country. Recently the literature has taken a new direction by estimating the costs of ...

February 12, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1608322
Prof. Martin Weitzman recently gave the Max Weber Lecture focused on the economics of climate change. Here are his slides. Marty is a giant in my field and is an incredibly deep thinker. So, I"m slightly surprised that there are no slides here focused on the economics of climate ...

February 12, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1608317
Mortgage rates increased today, but are still very low.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Higher From Long-Term Lows

The average lender is now back to quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.625%, up from 3.5% yesterday. A few of the less-aggressive lenders ...

February 12, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1608299
Misalignments of real exchange rates continue to be the most visible and painful symptom of asymmetric shocks within the Eurozone. An important factor behind such misalignment is the difference in national wage formation and bargaining systems, especially between core and periphery members. This column argues that all members need to ...

February 12, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1608298
There are certain conditions needed to make a common currency across diverse economies a success and the Eurozone is clearly not satisfying them. This column argues that institutions and policies in place six years after the debt crisis have mitigated the risks of another Great Recession. But they have not ...

February 12, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1608297
When the newly elected Greek government of George Papandreou revealed that its predecessor had doctored the books, financial markets reacted violently. This column discusses the steps implemented by policymakers following this episode, which were essential in resolving the Crisis. What is remarkable, in hindsight, is the combination of pragmatism and ...

February 12, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1608293

The 19-country eurozone, the core of Europe’s economy, grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the last quarter of 2015. But total economic output remained just slightly lower than when the global economic crisis began, in 2008.

Here is Jack Ewing from the NYT.  Here is the ...

February 12, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1608292

February 12, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1608267

Given worries regarding an imminent slowdown in the wake of the stock market decline, it’s of interest to see what the term premium is signalling.

Figure 1: Ten year minus ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608266
(February 12, 2016 06:56 PM, by David Henderson) I have a few mottos in life. The title of this post is one of them, and it has served me well. It sounds obvious. What other kind of hand could you play? None. But what you can do... (1 COMMENTS)

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608265

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608262

If you are dismayed by Trumpism, don’t kid yourself that it will fade away if Donald Trump fails to win the Republican nomination. Trumpism is an expression of the legitimate anger that many Americans feel about the course that the country has taken, and its appearance was predictable. It is ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608264

Senator Sanders:  “When you have six financial institutions that have assets equivalent to 58% of the GDP in America, while issuing two-thirds of the credit cards and a third of the mortgages, I think, if Teddy Roosevelt were alive today, that great trust buster would have said ‘break them up.’  I ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608263

The Syrian ceasefire agreement of February 11 is a big win for the Russians and the Syrian regime. Russia, Iran, and Syria are in the midst of a major military offensive that has allowed them to besiege Aleppo and has them poised to make gains across the battlefield. This so-called ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608261

February is a month of confusing holidays. On the 22nd, Americans traditionally commemorate the birth of George Washington, Revolutionary War general and the United States’ first president. On the 12th, they remember the birth of the Civil War commander-in-chief and sixteenth chief executive Abraham Lincoln. Since 1968, every third Monday ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608260

Virginia lawmakers are front and center in the school choice world this week. Legislators will soon vote on an amendment that would allow the Virginia Board of Education to authorize charter schools — a dramatic shift from the status quo, in which only local boards of education are allowed ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608258

Over the next few years, the Indian economy will seem to be doing well, if judged only by headlines. Real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was just reported at 7.3 per cent in the final quarter of last year, which impresses some. GDP growth, however, is not translating into ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608257

The 2016 Democratic primary contest is being fought on Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ turf. Even as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to challenge Bernie Sanders’ plans for free health care and free college as unrealistic, it was clear from last night’s PBS debate in Milwaukee that he has pulled ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608259

The US, Russia, and other world powers have reached a ceasefire agreement in Syria. While the plan will not affect the fight against Syrian al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra or ISIS, it will purportedly increase humanitarian aid to civilians. Details of how the agreement will be executed are foggy — ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608256

I wrote a few days ago on CD about how both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been criticizing “excessive CEO pay.” A campaign ad for Hillary tells us that ...

February 12, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608255

We’ve seen this movie—now playing in Syria– before.

The Russians have developed a way of getting the US formally to permit offensive Russian military operations against American partners on the ground, all the while calling it a ceasefire.

What the Russians are proposing in Syria—a “cessation of hostilities” on terms they get ...

February 12, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1608251
The Libertarian Case for Bernie Sanders, from Will Wilkinson at the Niskanen Center. Yes, Denmark scores much above the US on ease of doing business indices. An interesting case. A welfare state is not necessarily a politicized regulatory state, with strong two-way political-industry capture. The latter may be more ...

February 12, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1608250

This paper aims to identify the causal effect of smoking on body mass index (BMI) using data from the Lung Health Study, a randomized trial of smoking cessation treatments. Since nicotine is a metabolic stimulant and appetite suppressant, quitting or reducing smoking could lead to weight gain. Using randomized treatment ...

February 12, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1608218
Measures of industrial production, homebuilding and inflation highlight the week of economic indicators.

February 12, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1608217

February 12, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1608216

February 12, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1608212
I have the impression that this new post by Kevin Drum is a response to objections to his earlier post made, among other places, here at angrybearblog. I get the impression that I wasn’t one of many who made the same objection. In any case it is a big improvement. ...

February 12, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1608211
Nicholas Kristof  ✔@NickKristof Clinton is accusing Sanders of being anti-Obama. Feels fake and contrived to me, and rather nasty. 10:47 PM – 11 Feb 2016 Twitter ___ What worries me more than anything else about a Clinton general election campaign is her propensity to say obviously silly things. Elsewhere in ...

February 12, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1608206

I wrote a few days ago on CD about how both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been criticizing “excessive CEO pay.” A campaign ad for Hillary tells us that ...

February 12, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1608205

Servaas Storm means well. He is alarmed that the eurozone’s official strategy of “internal devaluation” might do more harm than good by unnecessarily forcing countries that have lost their competitiveness into deflation (see here and here). This is a very real concern indeed and Storm should be ...

February 12, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1608174
Interesting tidbit: Even though January is one of the weakest periods of the year, average weekly hotel occupancy in 2016 is already above the average for all of 2009 (the worst year for hotels since the Depression)!

Here is an update on hotel occupancy from STR: US ...

February 12, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1608173

February 12, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1608172

February 12, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1608171

That is the new and excellent book by Caroline Freund; the subtitle is The Rise of Emerging-market Tycoons and Their Mega Firms.  It looks at the rise of billionaires in emerging markets, offers a new data base on how they earned their wealth, and takes a generally “pro-billionaire” ...

February 12, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1608170
(February 12, 2016 01:33 PM, by Bryan Caplan) With the authors' kind permission, here is Putterman and Weil's data in Excel format.... (0 COMMENTS)

February 12, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1608169
(Don Boudreaux)

This letter is to a businessman who heard an interview that I did yesterday on Ross Kaminsky’s show on ...

February 12, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1608164
Thanks to

No one can deny that current markets are scary, so I have opined in an article at Seeking ...

February 12, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1608163
Read Dr. Krugman's column today and see if you can find any thoughts about long run economic growth. In the 2nd sentence of his piece, he writes; "But macroeconomic policy — what to do ...

February 12, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1608132

In conversations about changing the U.S. tax system, it often doesn’t take long for the possibility of a value-added tax to come up.

Most other ...

February 12, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1608131
Shoppers in Miami in February. Tame price increases should help small wage gains translate into real income growth, potentially boosting spending. ALAN DIAZ/ASSOCIATED PRESS

U.S. consumers are feeling ...

February 12, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1608130

Going "off the deep end on macroeconomic policy":

On Economic Stupidity, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ... If you’ve been following the financial news, you know that there’s a lot of market turmoil out there. It’s nothing like 2008, at least so far, but it’s worrisome. ... So ...

February 12, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1608129
The Q4 report was released today:Household Debt and Credit Report.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Grows Modestly

Household debt increased moderately and repayment rates improved during the last three months of 2015, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608128
In order to preserve financial integration and stability, the Eurozone needs to build elements of a common fiscal policy. This column discusses how this could be done. It proposes the creation of a European Fiscal Institute, modelled on principles similar to those used for the ECB. Such an establishment would ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608123
The euro is unique in that it is a currency without a sovereign. Since the crisis, there have been major developments towards making the Eurozone more resilient, including the banking union and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). This column explores whether further normalisation is required to make the Eurozone function ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608126
The ongoing Eurozone Crisis has raised many debates on what needs to be done to reduce the frequency and severity of similar future crises. This column discusses the implications of equity versus debt flows in terms of risk sharing during the Crisis, and in terms of slow recovery in the ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608127
The Eurozone crisis has shown that monetary union entails more than just sharing monetary policies. This column identifies four minimal conditions for solidifying the monetary union. In the case of fiscal policy, this means a decentralised solution. In the case of financial supervision and monetary policy, centralisation is unambiguously the ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608125
The dramatic episodes in the Eurozone in the past few years called for a number of policy reactions. Yet the response was usually limited to what was deemed indispensable to ensure survival. This column discusses how such half-solutions paved the way for future crises. The author also puts forward a ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1608124
A lot has been achieved in terms of institution building to turn the Eurozone into a sustainable currency union. The Eurozone Crisis, however, has shown that the Eurozone is still not a properly functioning currency union. This column points to three areas of further reform to achieve such a goal. ...

February 12, 2016, 12:05 pm, 1608114

February 12, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1608113
(February 12, 2016 10:31 AM, by Scott Sumner) On January 23rd, I made the following claims: Consider the following two paradoxes: 1. Falling wages are associated with falling RGDP. Falling wages cause higher RGDP. 2. Falling interest rates are associated with falling NGDP growth. Falling interest rates cause... (1 COMMENTS)

February 12, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1608111
by Joseph Joyce Monetary Policy in an Open Economy The recent research related to the trilemma (see here) confirms that policymakers who are willing to sacrifice control of the exchange rate or capital flows can implement monetary policy. For most central banks, this means using a short-term interest rate, such ...

February 12, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1608112

February 12, 2016, 11:34 am, 1608107

|Peter Boettke|

Many folks inside and outside of academic life believe that Adam Smith "invisible hand" theorem required a strong-version of the rationality and/or self-interest postulate. Strong rationality assumption is necessary condition for the derivation of a strong version of the invisible hand. Thus, any demonstration of the deviation ...

February 12, 2016, 11:33 am, 1608106

Shannon Wulf Tregar:

The US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan suffered a setback this week as the Supreme Court blocked the agency from requiring states to submit compliance plans until the program is reviewed by a lower court. Beyond the Clean Power Plan, and given polarized opinions on various regulatory ...

February 12, 2016, 11:03 am, 1608075
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 90.7, down from 92.0 in January:

"Consumer confidence continued its slow decline in early February, with its current level just below the average recorded during the 2nd half of 2015 (91.0). The small early February decline ...

February 12, 2016, 10:44 am, 1608074

February 12, 2016, 10:44 am, 1608072

February 12, 2016, 10:44 am, 1608073

February 12, 2016, 10:34 am, 1608071
US retail sales rose a moderate 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reports. The gain offers another clue for thinking that the stock market’s plunge this year may be a false warning about the near-term macro outlook. In fact, when you look at retail spending’s year-over-year rate, today’s release shows ...

February 12, 2016, 9:33 am, 1608064

February 12, 2016, 9:33 am, 1608063

February 12, 2016, 9:23 am, 1608062

Photo Credit: Alex Proimos || A bunch of con men attempt to bilk an unsuspecting ...

February 12, 2016, 9:03 am, 1608030
One popular school of thought about the U.S. productivity slowdown says the problem is measurement. That is, official statistics are geared toward a 20th-century economy of manufacturers rather than a 21st-century world ...

February 12, 2016, 9:03 am, 1608029
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.2% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.4% from January 2015.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for ...

February 12, 2016, 8:44 am, 1608028
Important progress has been made in repairing the design faults that the EZ Crisis revealed. This new VoxEU eBook argues that fixing the Eurozone is a job half done. The eBook, which presents 18 chapters by leading economists that hail from a broad range of nations and schools of thought, ...

February 12, 2016, 8:44 am, 1608027
Important progress has been made in repairing the design faults that the EZ Crisis revealed. This column introduces a new VoxEU eBook which argues that fixing the Eurozone is a job half done. The eBook, which presents 18 chapters by leading economists that hail from a broad range of nations ...

February 12, 2016, 8:34 am, 1608026
The battle between macro and markets rages on. Yesterday’s update of the ADS Index—a US business-cycle metric published by the Philadelphia Fed—remained comfortably in growth territory, in part due to yesterday’s upbeat report on jobless claims (one of the index’s six components). A markets-based estimate of the US economic trend, ...

February 12, 2016, 8:04 am, 1608025
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 31 of my colleague Tyler Cowen’s important 2002 book, Creative Destruction:

Wealth and technology not only ...

February 12, 2016, 8:04 am, 1608024
(Don Boudreaux)

The title of this post is one way to describe the question that is asked – and answered, ...

February 12, 2016, 7:34 am, 1608020

It's a mess, but why not seta bunch ofIvy League lawyers to figure it out? It would keep them out of government where they do real harm.

February 12, 2016, 7:34 am, 1608019

Of the ones listed I make The Grateful Dead a clear #1. (The Eagles?! Sheesh.)

February 12, 2016, 7:23 am, 1608018
‘It is crazy to believe someone’s eye colour, height, hobbies and musical tastes are a basis for a lasting relationship’

February 12, 2016, 7:03 am, 1608003

Have you ever bought something that you thought would last, then had to replace it far sooner than you believe you ever should have had to?

Sure, maybe you deliberately bought something that was cheap just because it was cheap, and because you figured you would ...

February 12, 2016, 6:35 am, 1608002
● US jobless claims fall to lowest level in 7 weeks | Bloomberg ● US Consumer Comfort Index holds close to a 3-mo high | Bloomberg ● Fed won’t backpedal on interest rates, Janet Yellen says | NY Times ● Yellen: Negative rates not “off the table” | USA Today ...

February 12, 2016, 5:34 am, 1607999

12.5 minutes of excerptsfrom fine movies. Layer Cake and The Boiler Room are inspired choices.

February 12, 2016, 4:44 am, 1607973

February 12, 2016, 4:05 am, 1607971

That is a question from a very smart person, over thirty years of age, who claims not to have read very much (I don’t know how much).

So which book should I recommend?

Conditional on the person knowing me, the idea of simply introducing economics is not going to win, even if ...

February 12, 2016, 3:03 am, 1607958

February 12, 2016, 3:03 am, 1607957

Dietrich Vollrath:

Making Inferences about Tropics, Germs, and Crops: One of the long-running arguments in growth is "geography versus institutions". A lot of ink and a tiny amount of computing power was thrown at this question. The early stages of this involved a lot of cross-country regressions that attempted to ...

February 12, 2016, 2:44 am, 1607956
The role of equities in Europe’s capital markets has diminished since the Global Crisis and is only slowly recovering to its prior level. This column argues that revitalising its equity markets has much to offer Europe in terms of funding business growth, creating jobs, and delivering long-term pension returns for ...

February 12, 2016, 2:44 am, 1607955
A major challenge for monetary policy is predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. This column explains why rules of thumb could be misleading and proposes a new approach that incorporates the source of exchange rate movements when evaluating how they pass through to import prices and inflation.

February 12, 2016, 2:44 am, 1607954

February 12, 2016, 2:04 am, 1607953

And eurozone banks down 41% since ECB introduced negative interest rates, notes

That is from @RobinWigg.  The Japanese market has not responded positively either.

Of course negative interest rates, while intended as a form of stimulus, or currency depreciation, are also a tax ...

February 12, 2016, 2:04 am, 1607952
This is not about math — this is about people’s lives, and we should level with the American people.  Every progressive economist who has analyzed that say the numbers don’t add up. And we should level with the American people about what we can do to get quality affordable health ...

February 12, 2016, 2:04 am, 1607951

Two days ago, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders won the Democratic New Hampshire primary by a whopping 22% of the vote over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This victory reinforces Sanders’ candidacy after a narrow loss to Clinton in Iowa, and comes in spite of Clinton’s own 3 percentage point New Hampshire win ...

February 12, 2016, 2:04 am, 1607950

Prime Minister Narendra Modi sometimes poses a rhetorical question to those who complain about the slow pace of his economic reforms: Can those demanding so-called “big bang” reforms list what exactly they have in mind?

In a spirit of solicitude, here’s a suggestion. If Mr. Modi wants to end the complaints, ...

February 12, 2016, 12:44 am, 1607922

Further to Mark's post on the settlement negotiations, we now have an order from Judge Griesa that brings more love from New York to Argentina than it has seen in a decade, maybe ever.

The order, granted near-instantly on the Republic's request, tells the

February 12, 2016, 12:04 am, 1607919
(February 12, 2016 12:00 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Putterman and Weil generously shared their whole data set with me - including a lot of info not available online. I soon discovered two fun facts about ancestry-adjusted state and agricultural history. Remember that state history is bounded from 0-1,... (0 COMMENTS)

February 12, 2016, 12:04 am, 1607918

Making good policy decisions about establishing or expanding early childhood programs requires solid evidence about those programs’ effectiveness. However, both the type and quality of the research used to assess program impact vary greatly.

While some argue that current knowledge provides adequate support for growing pre-K programs, others suggest that stronger ...