Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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December 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1699608
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 222 of James Bovard’s 1991 book, The Fair Trade Fraud:

December 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1699607

December 4, 2016, 10:04 am, 1699606
Andy Borowitz, comedian and author of the “The Borowitz Report.”, reports the news with his own pov: President-elect Donald J. Trump drew a line in the sand on Friday as he warned that U.S. companies planning to ship jobs overseas will be slapped with enormous bribes. “If you think you’re ...

December 4, 2016, 9:33 am, 1699605
Interesting observations from Larry. A tidbit:

Some of the worst abuses of power are not those that leaders inflict on their people. They are the acts that the people demand from their leaders.

December 4, 2016, 8:04 am, 1699592

Here I am referring to your personal plans, not to climate change.  The weather can make your current circumstances seem more difficult or less pleasant.  But extreme weather also tends to make your memories of journeys stronger and more lasting (“…remember that time in Goa when the monsoon came ...

December 4, 2016, 7:23 am, 1699591

Photo Credit: elycefeliz || Duck, it’s a financial crisis!


Should a credit analyst care about financial leverage?  Of course, the amount and ...

December 4, 2016, 6:04 am, 1699585
My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. Household debt is back in the headlines. Official figures show that consumer credit is rising by 10.5% a year, its fastest since well before the crisis,...

December 4, 2016, 5:33 am, 1699583

Yet another Major Problem I had no idea about.

December 4, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699578

December 4, 2016, 4:44 am, 1699577
There is a belief among the general public that employment volatility tends to be greater for firms with higher foreign exposure, but the relationship between the two is ambiguous in theory. This column uses firm-level data for Japan to compare the impact of foreign exposure on employment volatility for multinational, ...

December 4, 2016, 2:04 am, 1699553

Medical insurance often becomes invalid if the customer is drunk. But during the football World Cup in 2014, Shanghai-based Zhongan Insurance turned that rule upside down by offering Chinese football fans a policy specifically for self-inflicted liver damage.

It cost less than $1 and covered sports enthusiasts against ...

December 4, 2016, 2:04 am, 1699552

December 3, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1699545

News Item: Donald Trump has warned US citizens that there will be ‘consequences’ for leaving the country on vacation. Overseas travel to places like Paris to see the ...

December 3, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1699543
I don’t think anyone has ever accused me of being star struck. I pay very little to celebrities, and I probably couldn’t tell you who most of the people being profiled in any given edition of People magazine are. With the exception of Jimmy Stewart, who was way before my ...

December 3, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1699539
(December 3, 2016 09:01 PM, by David Henderson) As I noted in yesterday's post, there's always an issue of the bias of the news network on which one appears, and one is right to be skeptical. The fact that RT is funded by the Russian government ought to... (0 ...

December 3, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1699532

December 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1699524

Sex-cynicism and race-pessimism, of course, often travel in tandem.

That is from Christopher Caldwell’s excellent NYT article on Alt-Right.

The post A very good sentence appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

December 3, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1699522

In a Forbes article today (“Donald Trump’s Trade Policies: Blessing Or Curse?“) Forbes contributor Stuart Anderson features comments from Mercatus Center Senior ...

December 3, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1699512

December 3, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1699511
(Don Boudreaux)

Steve Moore
Economic Advisor to Donald Trump


Reading your recent column, I was relieved to learn that you still believe ...

December 3, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1699510

In a Forbes article today (“Donald Trump’s Trade Policies: Blessing Or Curse?“) Forbes contributor Stuart Anderson features comments from Mercatus Center Senior ...

December 3, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1699509
When Paul Krugman, Larry Summers, and the Wall Street Journalall agree on something -- that presidential deal-making over plant location is a terrible idea -- it's worth paying attention to.

I think Tyler Cowen did the best job of describing what's wrong with the deal, interviewed on ...

December 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1699501

December 3, 2016, 11:33 am, 1699494
Macroeconomists have trouble testing key hypotheses related to the causal effects of policies and shocks because they don't have valid control groups. Intuitively, if the U.S cuts taxes for the rich --- how do we evaluate the causal "trickle down" effects of such a policy given that we will never ...

December 3, 2016, 11:33 am, 1699493

December 3, 2016, 10:04 am, 1699486
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page v of Edwin Cannan‘s Preface to his remarkable 1927 collection, An Economist’s Protest:

December 3, 2016, 9:03 am, 1699475
This will be a light week for economic data.

The key reports are the ISM non-manufacturing index, Job Openings, and the October trade deficit.

The Q3 Quarterly Services and the Fed's Q3 Flow of Funds reports will be released this week.

----- Monday, Dec 4th -----
10:00 ...

December 3, 2016, 8:04 am, 1699473

Jacob Levy has an excellent post on why respect for truth is a foundation for republican government:

…the great analysts of truth and speech under totalitarianism—GeorgeOrwell, Hannah Arendt, VaclavHavel—can help us recognize this kind of lie for what it is. Sometimes—often—a leader with authoritarian ...

December 3, 2016, 8:04 am, 1699472
(December 3, 2016 06:30 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Tomorrow, Italians will go to the ballot, for a referendum on a constitutional reform promoted by the government led by Mr Renzi. The referendum is widely supposed to be liable--were the anti-Renzi side to win--to trigger financial turbulence. A... (1 ...

December 3, 2016, 7:33 am, 1699470

It's real early yet, but there a whole lot of teams that regret missing on Dak.

December 3, 2016, 7:23 am, 1699469

Mobility of labour refers to how easily workers can move to different jobs within the economy. The two main factor of labour mobility are:

Geographical mobility – how easy is for a worker to move between different regions and countries to seek new work. Occupational mobility – how easy is it for ...

December 3, 2016, 6:34 am, 1699463

The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics
By John Judis
Review via The Economist
The Western intelligentsia, snug in its echo-chamber, has done a dismal job of understanding what ...

December 3, 2016, 5:33 am, 1699462

Individuals lacking a Y chromosome tend, in my experience, to think the Stooges are not funny. But in moderate doses, Curly still makes me laugh out loud.

December 3, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699457

December 3, 2016, 4:04 am, 1699456

Nike Inc. this week begins selling a pricey sneaker with self-tying laces, a high-stakes test of the company’s technology investments and efforts to sell more products directly to consumers.

Since its founding, Nike has predominantly been a wholesaler. But as shopping shifts online, Nike is moving to lessen its reliance ...

December 3, 2016, 2:04 am, 1699450

Since Donald Trump has picked Betsy DeVos to be education secretary, many commentators have been pulling out their anti-school choice arguments from the closet, and for the most part it isn’t a pretty sight.  To insist on a single government-run school and trash school choice, while out of the ...

December 3, 2016, 12:34 am, 1699446
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssWhat Does it Mean To Be "Mainstream"? Philosophy and MethodologyPolitical Theory

December 3, 2016, 12:04 am, 1699444
Georges Sorel thought he had made a ‘happy choice’ with his use of the term ‘myth.’ But he soon was disabused of that illusion by critics who dismissed the anachronism of myths and others who accused him of falsifying “the real opinions of revolutionaries.” In his essay, “Myths of the ...