Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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October 28, 2016, 5:33 am, 1687728

Scientists are still trying to understand why it was so deadly.

October 28, 2016, 5:33 am, 1687727

Mick, Keith, and the boys' new line should be "Don't trust anyone over 80".

October 28, 2016, 4:04 am, 1687706

According to the most recent Statistics Canada data, in 2012, women over 40 gave birth to 13,395 children, while teenagers produced 12,915. Demographers have been expecting this tipping point for decades. In 1974, the older age group gave birth to just 3,550 children while teenagers produced 38,650—and the numbers ...

October 28, 2016, 2:34 am, 1687679
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssWorld HistoryPhilosophy and MethodologyPolitical TheoryIdeas Make Us Rich

October 28, 2016, 2:04 am, 1687675

Given how much Donald Trump talks about jobs leaving America, you might think that his supporters lost out more than others. In fact, the opposite appears to be true, according to a recent analysis from Gallup.

“No matter how you measure it, there’s not any ...

October 28, 2016, 1:03 am, 1687644

October 28, 2016, 12:34 am, 1687643
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssTaxes and SpendingPolitical TheoryBritain Should Embrace Unilateral Free Trade Right Now

October 27, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1687610
(Don Boudreaux)

I believe that I’ve not shared this video at Cafe Hayek before now, but if I did, it’s no matter: this ...

October 27, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1687578
From Goldman Sachs economist Elad Pashtan

Our final Q3 GDP tracking estimate stands at +2.9% (qoq ar), roughly in line with the consensus of forecasts that were updated after the September trade report. We look for a strong boost from net exports, solid consumer spending, a small contribution from capital ...

October 27, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1687577

October 27, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1687576
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssGlobal EconomyWorld HistoryPolitical TheoryIs De-industrialization a "Natural Phenomenon" of Developed Economies?

October 27, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1687575

1. Chart of the Day I (above). For the most affordable energy in history — spending on “energy goods and services” is below 4% of total personal ...

October 27, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1687544

Dietrich Vollrath:

Productivity measures productivity ... that's it: Justin Fox at Bloomberg put up a few articles (here, here) recently digging into trends in productivity in the US manufacturing sector. The overarching theme of the two articles is that claims regarding the success of the manufacturing sector ...

October 27, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1687543

October 27, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1687542

N.C. Gen. Stat. § 23-46:  

It shall be unlawful for any individual, corporation, or firm or other association of persons, to solicit of any creditor any claim of such creditor in order that such individual, corporation, firm or association may represent such creditor or present or vote ...

October 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1687538
(October 27, 2016 05:18 PM, by David Henderson) This month, the President's Council of Economic Advisers issued a 21-page report on labor market monopsony. It's titled "Labor Market Monopsony: Trends, Consequences, and Policy Responses." As with many reports issued by economists who are paid by government, it has... (0 COMMENTS)

October 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1687537
(Don Boudreaux)

Suppose that Smith, your neighbor in New Haven or your friend in Fayetteville, produced a ...

October 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1687535

Originally posted at National Review’s The Corner

It is unusual for a serious academic paper to analyze events that occurred within a month of the paper’s release. But economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz were able to pull it off, producing a high-quality study of financial markets’ ...

October 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1687536
Federal regulators have approved unprecedented new rules to ensure broadband providers do not abuse their customers’ app usage and browsing history, mobile location data and other sensitive personal information generated while using the Internet. The rules, passed Thursday in a 3-2 vote by the Federal Communications Commission, require Internet providers, such as Comcast and Verizon, ...

October 27, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1687532

October 27, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1687531

October 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1687500

Hillary Clinton repeated her promise this week that her policy proposals would “not add a penny to the debt,” repeating a line she delivered in the first and third presidential debates.

Is she right? Sort of, but it’s the kind of statement that could create some big political headaches should she ...

October 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1687499

A record corporate-merger wave has renewed debate over whether antitrust enforcers are doing enough to preserve competition and protect consumers.

But not all anticompetitive behavior shows up as monopoly—a seller that utilizes its dominant market position to raise prices to customers. Sometimes, it shows up as “monopsony,” when a buyer uses ...

October 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1687498

The nation’s homeownership rate, which has dropped sharply for years, could be at a turning point.

It hit 63.5% in the third quarter, the Census Bureau said Thursday. That is a significant jump from the prior quarter, when it hit 62.9%, the lowest point in 51 years.

There were other reasons for optimism ...

October 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1687497

Workers at state-run nursing homes and hospitals are more frequently injured on the job than those in construction or manufacturing, highlighting the difficult nature of jobs caring for the elderly or unwell.

There were about 2.9 million nonfatal workplace injuries and illnesses across the private sector and another 752,600 in ...

October 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1687496

At ProMarket:

It Takes a Village to Maintain a Dangerous Financial System: Q&A with Anat Admati: Stanford professor Anat Admati discusses her new paper, in which sheexplains how a mix of distorted incentives, ignorance, confusion, and lack of accountability contributesto the persistence of a dangerous andpoorly regulated financial system. ...

October 27, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1687494

R Street’s Derek Khanna and AEI research fellow Kevin Corinth join the show for a discussion on how technology can lead to disruptive changes in the safety net. Derek and Kevin participated in a public event at AEI about how technology can transform our approach to poverty. Derek has written ...

October 27, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1687491

Retraction Watch:

Top-ranking economists sometimespublish papers in open access journals deemed potentially “predatory,” according to a new analysis.

The findings contradict previousresultsthat show that researchers who publish papers in “potential, possible, or probable” predatory journals (as defined by librarian Jeffrey Beall) are largely inexperienced.

According ...

October 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1687460

Brad DeLong (reviewing Joel Mokyr's A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy in Nature):

Economic history: The roots of growth: What is modern economic growth? Going by the best available measure (it might be more honest to say 'guess'), today's average material living standards and economic ...

October 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1687459
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in September to 1.02%, down from 1.03% in August. Freddie's rate is down from 1.41% in September 2015.

This is the lowest rate since July 2008.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

October 27, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1687458

October 27, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1687457
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssU.S. HistoryPolitical TheoryPublic Faith in Elections Falls as the State Grows

October 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1687455

That’s the new and very direct and frank memoir by Marina Abramović.  It is a narrative of how a very smart and insightful person can choose (almost) never to think like an economist, and how she might evolve from a naive Serbian virgin to one of the world’s most ...

October 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1687456

October 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1687454

With a $275 billion plan to be implemented over a five year period, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has already promised to make infrastructure investment a major focus of her first 100 days in office if elected. Donald Trump has promised that if elected, he would spend twice as much as ...

October 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1687453

Arthur Brooks’ brief note earlier today about Charles Wolf Jr. is both simple and elegant.  I too was honored to contribute to the volume published in honor of Charlie’s 60 years at RAND, and so I offer excerpts from those thoughts below.  I am saddened by ...

October 27, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1687450

Here's the full quote:

"This is definitely human impact, we're in the sixth mass extinction. There's only been five before this and we're definitely in the sixth," WWF conservation scientist Martin Taylor told CNN."

...and here's more of the story:

More than two thirds of the world's wildlife could be ...

October 27, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1687418

Today is October 27, the day Philadelphia was founded in 1682. Philadelphia residents pay a 3.9004 percent earnings tax on top of the state 3.07 percent income tax. Residents and visitors pay 8 percent sales tax on purchases.

Here are some interesting links I came across:

Senator Calls for Passage of ...

October 27, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1687417
From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded Moderately

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the October Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded ...

October 27, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1687416
The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2016.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this ...

October 27, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1687415

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687407

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one part of the argument:

As it stands, most U.S. welfare programs are tied to the institution of work. That leaves gaps in the safety net, and frequently analysts will decry this imperfect coverage. I take this ...

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687406

Could a flailing Donald Trump campaign hurt down-ballot Republicans and cost them majorities in the Senate and House? That seems possible, if he loses to Hillary Clinton by a margin similar to that in most current polls and if voters keep on voting straight party tickets as they have increasingly ...

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687405

Ten days ago, the American Enterprise Institute hosted NSA Deputy National Manager for National Security Curt Dukes for a conversation on the defense of cyberspace, which included a wide-ranging discussion of  US intelligence agencies’ methods of detecting and countering cyberattacks, addressing software flaws, and planning for longer-range protection ...

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687402

Every October 28, the anniversary of the foundation of Czechoslovakia is celebrated by an evening of pomp and circumstance that almost feels outsized to today’s Czech Republic and its political class. Government officials, diplomats, religious leaders, and other dignitaries gather in the gorgeous 14th century Vladislav Hall at Prague Castle ...

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687403

Lawyers have learned over time to be wary about the veracity of their clients. I learned this lesson the hard way in my very first case as a young lawyer in New York. My client, a Broadway promoter, was being sued for failing to pay for a limousine that had ...

October 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1687404

Charles Wolf, Jr., a brilliant economist and the founding dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica, California, passed away on Monday at the age of 92. Not only did Wolf shape my thinking as a young policy analyst, but he also made a personal impact on the ...

October 27, 2016, 11:23 am, 1687400

Writing books about Warren Buffett is a bit of a cottage industry, and one that is getting scarce for new ideas.  This book takes a new approach because the author takes 20 ...

October 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1687369
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edge Up in September

Pending home sales shifted higher in September following August's notable dip and are now at their fifth highest level over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Increases in the South and West outgained declines in ...

October 27, 2016, 10:44 am, 1687368

October 27, 2016, 10:34 am, 1687367

October 27, 2016, 10:04 am, 1687363
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 80 of Angus Deaton’s 2013 book, The Great Escape:

October 27, 2016, 10:04 am, 1687362
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to a correspondent:

Mr. Bill Sieta

Mr. Sieta:

Objecting to my ...

October 27, 2016, 9:34 am, 1687358

You decide to make a new monetary system from scratch. You give everyone a chequing account on your computer, with an initial balance of 0 units. If Andy buys bananas from Betty and pays her 100 units, Betty now has a positive balance and Andy now has a negative balance. ...

October 27, 2016, 9:33 am, 1687357
Dutch 10 guilder note. Holland and Lebanon are the only countries to have issued banknotes with bar codes.
One of the interesting things that ...

October 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1687325
U.S. economic growth appears to have accelerated in the third quarter after nine straight months of subpar gains. Here's what to watch in Friday's report.

October 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1687324

Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest data on the average and median sale prices of new homes in the United States, with the newest data being reported for September 2016.

Much less noticed, the Census Bureau also revised each of ...

October 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1687323

October 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1687322
The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 260,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,000, an ...

October 27, 2016, 8:44 am, 1687321

October 27, 2016, 8:34 am, 1687320

The Federal Reserve has been trying to raise inflation for eight years with, so far, muted results. But some analysts think we’re at an inflection point and pricing pressures will continue to strengthen. The Treasury market’s implied inflation estimate seems to agree, supported by moderately firmer numbers in the official ...

October 27, 2016, 8:34 am, 1687319

It’s a commonplace that politics is becoming more polarized and tribal: think of Remainers vs Brexiters or Trumpites vs Clintonites. This isn’t simply because people have retreated into intellectual trenches in which they associate only with the like-minded and get their news only from sources that echo their ...

October 27, 2016, 7:33 am, 1687313

I'd vote "yes".

I am not alone. I have published stories by other adjuncts and even tenured professors who find themselves publicly ridiculed and ostracized for not adhering to the dominant ideology.

What we need is a populist movement that demands that English professors fulfill their ...

October 27, 2016, 7:33 am, 1687315

Nicely summarized.

October 27, 2016, 7:33 am, 1687314

If so, you take advantage of this: "The Bubble Palace in Cannes, France, is listed at $456 million".

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687276

In an article last month in the Boston Review, Kentaro Toyama, a former computer scientist for Microsoft turned ICT4D promoter, confronts the limits of technological solutions to development problems:

But the value of a technology remains contingent on the motivations and abilities of organizations applying it—villagers must ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687277

Most of the attention on governance in developing countries is on developing efficient rules and regulations. That is, given the social and economic priorities of a country, rules and regulations should work towards achieving priorities in the least costly way. However, another dimension of governance that must be discussed is ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687278

For all of us working towards providing a better business and regulatory environment, it is important to know whether economic analysis has improved the quality of regulatory decisions. A proper analysis of the costs and benefits associated with regulations (government rules that govern private activity) is critical in determining which ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687275

A concerted effort is being made by institutions like the World Bank to quantify various types of transaction costs incurred by businesses (Doing Business, Enterprise Surveys). The rationale for focusing on transaction costs (and reducing them) is usually couched in mainstream economic concerns. That is, in an attempt ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687274

Few would dispute China’s importance to the world economy today; from small villages to large cities, its presence is now felt almost everywhere. The Economist recently went so far as to call China “the indispensable economy,” reporting that more and more multinational companies are realizing an increased ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687270

The United Nations seems to have a day for everything, from poetry (March 20) to families (May 15) to statistics (October 20). They even have a day for mountains (December 11). Most of these days come and go without much fuss or attention.

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687271

Editor’s Note: Michael Klein is the former Vice President of Financial and Private Sector Development of the World Bank Group and is currently Visiting Professor at Harvard and Johns Hopkins University.

Nairobi 2006. Making Finance Work for Africa is the topic. Bankers, officials of monetary authorities, regulators, representatives of the IMF ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687272

Editor's Note: The following post was submitted jointly by Mohammad Amin and Arvind Jain, both of the World Bank Group's Enterprise Analysis Unit.

The Enterprise Analysis Unit at the World Bank recently put out a short Country Note on the current state of the business climate in Azerbaijan. The note ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687269

Over the past decade foreign direct investment (FDI) has become a major force in developing and transition economies. In 2010 the volume of FDI to developing and transition economies for the first time exceeded the FDI to rich economies. In a speech on Democratizing Development Economics delivered at ...

October 27, 2016, 5:34 am, 1687273

You might find it hard to believe, but high prices of onions can trigger the fall of the government in India. In 1998, a supply side shock led to a sharp increase in onion prices in the country and most notably, in the state of Delhi. In the ...

October 27, 2016, 5:33 am, 1687268

This doesn't sound good.

The US has increasingly turned to salvaging scrapped planes from the boneyard, as tight budgets and overworked air crews struggle to make do.

The US still operates 76 B-52 bombers, a type of aircraft first introduced in the mid-1950s.

October 27, 2016, 5:33 am, 1687267

Sharma's theory sounds somewhat similar to that of Bhidé in his The Venturesome Economy.

(p. B4) Anshu​ Sharma,​ a venture capitalist at Storm Ventures, thinks he knows why so many companies that should have all the resources and brainpower required to build ...

October 27, 2016, 5:33 am, 1687266

The Venn diagram above was inspired by the following comment on Facebook by economist Steve Horwitz:

And here’s a bonus ...

October 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1687233

October 27, 2016, 4:44 am, 1687232

October 27, 2016, 4:34 am, 1687231
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssWorld HistoryPhilosophy and MethodologyPolitical TheoryPopulism Is a Not an Ideology

October 27, 2016, 4:04 am, 1687226

Setting the world record for using your mouth to catch a grape dropped from the greatest height: It was a dream years in the making, and all it took was a hot air balloon, walnut-sized fruits shipped specially from Georgia and a crew of Ph.D.-level engineers who gathered at ...

October 27, 2016, 4:04 am, 1687225

This is from Adam Ozimek:

…if big firms are bargaining down wages then why do labor economists consistently find a large firm wage premium? To take one example from many, one recent study on retailers found that after controlling for individual and store characteristics, firms with ...

October 27, 2016, 4:04 am, 1687224
(October 27, 2016 12:00 AM, by Bryan Caplan) At risk of taxing readers' patience, here's my rejoinder to Mike Huemer's last guest post on the ethical treatment of animals. He's in ps, I'm not.My main reactions:I. The argument from insects has too many controversial assumptions to be useful.... (0 COMMENTS)