Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 16, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1336141
More previews on the FOMC statement and press conference:

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: How the Federal Reserve Could Tweak ‘Considerable Time’

"Given the economic backdrop, they don’t want to send a signal right now that rate increases are imminent,” Hilsenrath said. “I think what they ...


September 16, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1336139

Entry and trading in over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets have received considerable attention. However, many critical questions remain unaddressed. This column describes a formal study of banks’ incentives to enter and trade in OTC derivatives markets. In equilibrium, only large banks enter to become dealers, and middle-sized banks only enter as ...


September 16, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1336140

The EU is about to extend economic partnership agreements signed in 2007 with countries of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific region. Reflecting on the implementation difficulties associated with previous agreements and the minimal engagements in the upcoming ones, this column argues that these partnerships will fall short. No further integration ...


September 16, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1336136

Over five years since the end of the recession, it would seem reasonable to expect that poverty would have dropped further from the peak hit in 2010. At 14.5% in 2013, the poverty rate has dropped from the peak of 15.1% hit in 2010. That’s progress. But it is still ...


September 16, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1336135

Here’s a cost to taxpayers of the minimum wage that isn’t usually considering by its advocates – the cost of enforcement. For example, in yesterday’s Seattle Times we learn that “Mayor Murray seeks a new office to enforce $15 wage, other laws“:

Now that Seattle has passed a series ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1336094
In my school's latest Wednesday seminar, the epidemiologist and cardiologist Dariush Mozaffarian methodically builds the scientific case for amending our traditional obsession with total fat (as a culprit in obesity) and saturated fat (as a culprit in heart disease).

Then, from about minute 47:30 to 50:30 in the video, ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1336093

One of the worst aspects of the federal tax code is the way it treats saving. Under ordinary circumstances, saving is treated to double taxation at the individual level, reducing after-tax returns to saving and incentivizing immediate consumption over saving.

There are several ways, though, that the tax code relieves ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1336092

President Barack Obama and other world leaders are having a tough time selling the benefits of the trade agreements they’re negotiating, in part because much of the public thinks all the talk ...


September 16, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1336091
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September 16, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1336089
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September 16, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1336090
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September 16, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1336086

Mark Thornton interviewed on PressTV:

“The political tensions between the United States and Russia has increased or speeded up the process of which nations are doing business between countries instead of dollars and doing it with their local currencies,” Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at Mises Institute, told Press TV on ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336031

An unorthodox campaign by a handful of cities hardest hit by the housing crash to use the power of eminent domain to write down large mortgage debts has stirred a backlash in Washington.

Republicans passed in June a budget bill that included language to bar federal agencies from refinancing loans that ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336032

Last year, the city of Richmond, Calif., proposed buying 624 mortgages in a bid to help homeowners shed large housing debts by using their powers of eminent domain. The city offered $589,740 to purchase Leisa Johnson’s loan, which was the second-most-valuable mortgage on the city’s list.

Richmond’s plan has ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336030

Periodic surges in demand for a Federal Reserve facility designed to control short-term interest rates appear to come at a loss for European markets.

Fitch Ratings said in a report Tuesday that much of the money that regularly flows into what the Fed calls its overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility appears ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336028

This is a special edition of our newsletter, offering our latest insights into what’s in store as Federal Reserve officials huddle in their two-day policy meeting.

Highlights


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336029
UPS plans to hire up to 95,000 temporary workers to handle the holiday rush, but that reflects a structural shift in American shopping habits — not so much a ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336027

In a webcast Tuesday, I explained why I thought the Federal Reserve would stick with, but qualify, an important phrase in its policy statement Wednesday which assures near-zero interest rates for a “considerable time.” This was simply my best analysis of where I think the Fed is going ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1336026
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in August.

Comments from CR: Tom Lawler has been sending me this table every month for several years. I think it is very useful for looking at the trendfor ...


September 16, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1336025
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September 16, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1336023
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September 16, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1336024
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September 16, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1336022

Unable to do anything important before its election season recess, Congress is about to knock down a favorite digital straw man—It will extend for a few months the about-to-expire federal ban on state taxation of Internet access.

The federal moratorium, called the Internet Tax Freedom Act, is scheduled to expire on November ...


September 16, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1336020

This I found in a Quora forum on prepaid meals in China:

We’ve actually experimented with prepaid vs postpaid meals in our restaurant. The verdict? Upfront payment increased table turnover by over 80%.

The difference is that customers who haven’t paid can justify their occupation of ...


September 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1336015
Second No Confidence Vote in Six Months

In spite of the fact the Socialist party holds a majority of just 1 in the 577-seat lower house, French prime minister Manual Valls hopes to stabilize things with a Second No Confidence Vote in Six Months.

Mr Valls ...


September 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1336014

We hear all the time about “rising income inequality” in America (there are about 1 million Google search results for that term), about “the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer,” the “stagnant or disappearing middle class,” all ...


September 16, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1335952

The pay gap between women and men narrowed last year, albeit slightly, the first time the gap contracted by more than a penny since the recession began in 2007.

Women earned 78.3 cents ...


September 16, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1335951
The Federal Reserve concludes a two-day policy meeting Wednesday with a statement, new economic projections and Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference. Here are five things to watch.


September 16, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1335950

That’s a title from a oped by former GW Bush speechwriter and current AEI scholar Marc Thiessen nearly a year ago. We can now evaluate whether in fact the implementation of individual insurance mandate component of the ACA did implode. From “New Data Show Early Progress in Expanding ...


September 16, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1335949
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on August realtor association/board/MLS reports released so far, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million, down 0.6% from July’s pace and down 3.9% from last August’s ...


September 16, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335946

In light of the upcoming Scottish independence referendum, some quotes by Mises are appropriate. Too bad the Scots’ idea of independence is Salmond and the EU, not Wallace and Bruce.

No people and no part of a people shall be held against ...


September 16, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335945

The phrase “incentives matter” is ubiquitous in economics, from undergraduate teaching to economic policy debates. The mantra is especially popular in the growing literature targeted at the general public, which I’ve criticized before for its undue focus on incentives ...


September 16, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335944

September 16, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1335943
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

John Addison Teevan rightly rejects the claim that slavery is a capitalist institution (Letters, Sept. 16).  Slavery began soon after the invention of agriculture and disappeared only with the emergence of modern capitalism.  Moreover, widespread opposition to slavery arose first in ...


September 16, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1335942
A comment on a previous post said that the unemployment rate is under-measuring the true unemployment rate due to people having withdrawn from the labor market. The low labor force participation rate would reflect this view. Is the 6.1% unemployment rate a reliable measure of un- and under-employment? One model ...


September 16, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335937
In my recent public lectures on climate change adaptation, I have argued that we need a lessdurable building capital stock. Today, Columbia University's student newspaper offers a funny example. Such Ivy League schools as Harvard, Princeton and Columbia have 100 year old and older dorms that do not have ...


September 16, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335936

Not unexpectedly, my post yesterday, “A conservative way to think about climate change,” generated lots of negative feedback.

Arctic ice. Michael Mann. The pause. Al Gore.

But here’s a mistake many are making: ...


September 16, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335935

According to its website, homemd is a unique mobile doctor house call service in Los Angeles.  Dr. Renee Magaña brings the age old experience of doctor house calls back into the modern world. You will receive the best of care in the convenience and privacy of your own home ...


September 16, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1335934
Here's a pleasant and short Powerpoint presentation on Perfect Competition that you may wish to include as part of any lesson on the subject. The presentation shows how price, supply andaverage and marginal revenue shifts as more firms enter the market and the impact that has on profits.Click here to ...


September 16, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1335933
The overall rate of infant mortality has been halved in the past two decades.That's the good news. But Unicef' s latest figures estimate every day 17,000 under-fives die - 6.3 million a year - from largely preventable causes. Most of the deaths happen in the first hours or weeks following ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335872

A new report by Standard & Poors finds that rising income inequality may negatively impact state revenue growth. The report confirms the long-standing consensus of tax economists that high, progressive income taxes contribute to revenue volatility, and also confirms the growing chorus of experts who argue that ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335871

The U.S. economy expanded 2.2% in 2013. But growth varied greatly across the nation’s 381 metropolitan regions, and some local economies actually contracted, a new Commerce Department report shows.

The Mount Vernon-Anacortes metro area in Washington state grew fastest, with gross domestic product expanding by 10.6% in 2013. (Keep in mind ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335870

The Federal Reserve may keep the words “considerable time” in its policy statement, but qualify them, the Journal’s chief economics correspondent Jon Hilsenrath said Tuesday in a webcast previewing the central bank’s two-day policy meeting. The Fed’s policy committee has used those words to explain when ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335869


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335868

Peter Temin and David Vines have a new book:

Making the case for Keynes, by Peter Dizikes, MIT News Office: In 1919, when the victors of World War I were concluding their settlement against Germany — in the form of the Treaty of Versailles — one of the leading ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335867

I have a new column:

Rethinking New Economic Thinking: Efforts such as Rethinking Economics and The Institute for New Economic Thinking are noteworthy attempts to, as INET says, “broaden and accelerate the development of new economic thinking that can lead to solutions for the great challenges of the 21st ...


September 16, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1335866
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September 16, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1335865
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September 16, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1335864

Mises Daily Monday by Gary Galles:

The work of economist Anders Chydenius, which predates Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, provided a radically free-market voice for Scandinavia in the 18th century as Chydenius battled against mercantilists and those who thought government ...


September 16, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1335863

Mises Daily Tuesday by Andrew Syrios:

The NCAA, a quasi-governmental regulatory cartel, prohibits colleges from paying athletes. So colleges employ a variety of schemes to offer unofficial “pay.” Meanwhile, the NCAA ensures there is no functioning job market for athletes at that ...


September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335862
(September 16, 2014 11:34 AM, by Bryan Caplan) As far as I can tell, spending statistics for education do not count implicit land rent as part of the cost of education. The Digest of Education Statistics' Table 213 for example, states that:Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food... (0 COMMENTS)


September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335861
(September 16, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) Stanley Hauerwas, War and the American Difference: Theological Reflections on Violence and National Identity. This wasn't really "recent" as it was several months ago, but Hauerwas spoke at Samford last semester. Hauerwas discusses war--a key sacrament of civic religion--from a... (0 COMMENTS)


September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335860
The Scottish referendum campaign has engaged people in politics as never before, it is said, and this is a welcome and different kind of politics. It is, of course, welcome that voters in Scotland are engaged and mainly intend to...


September 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1335859
There is a long article reported herethat California sushi prices could rise because of lasting drought. The causal claim is that drought will reduce the supply of "sushi rice" that is traditionally grown in California. But, at the end of the article there is the following quote highlighting how ...


September 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1335858

Last week the restaurant chain Olive Garden offered a limited supply (1,000) of pasta passes (the “Never Ending Pasta Pass”) for $100 that entitles diners to unlimited pasta at any Olive Garden restaurant nationwide during an upcoming seven-week period (September 22 ...


September 16, 2014, 11:03 am, 1335796

Chief executives downgraded their optimism about the U.S. economy, saying they expect to slow both hiring and capital investments in the second half of the year, according to the Business Roundtable’s third-quarter survey released Tuesday.

The survey of 135 CEOs found that just 34% expect add to their company’s ...


September 16, 2014, 11:03 am, 1335795
From the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in July and 0.4 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 1.8 ...


September 16, 2014, 11:03 am, 1335794
From the Census Bureau: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2013

The nation’s official poverty rate in 2013 was 14.5 percent, down from 15.0 percent in 2012. The 45.3 million people living at or below the poverty line in 2013, for the third consecutive year, ...


September 16, 2014, 10:44 am, 1335793
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September 16, 2014, 10:35 am, 1335792

Martin Wolf says something that I'm in two minds about:

People have to understand, when they're being taught economics, how little we know, how limited our data are, and how unbelievably complex our economic and financial system is.
I think people have to begin with profound humility ...


September 16, 2014, 10:34 am, 1335791
Teaser:

Bipartisanship ...


September 16, 2014, 10:05 am, 1335789

Here is the latest:

David Cameron faces a “bloodbath” at the hands of Tory MPs after all three parties pledged to continue high levels of funding for Scotland if it rejects independence.

The Prime Minister is facing mounting dissent among English backbenchers after promising that Scotland’s special funding ...


September 16, 2014, 10:04 am, 1335788
(September 16, 2014 08:35 AM, by Scott Sumner) This is beginning to sound like a broken record. A reformist right-wing government does lots of good things, trimming the size of the public sector. It promises monetary stability but delivers instability---a contractionary monetary shock. This time it was in... (0 COMMENTS)


September 16, 2014, 10:04 am, 1335787
Via Social Europe Journal, Dani Rodrik points to both a perennial question on economic self-interests and elections: Martin Gilens of Princeton University and Benjamin Page of Northwestern University, have recently produced some stark findings for the United States that have dramatic implications for the functioning of democracy – in the ...


September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335784

[I am trying to explain what I think is a conceptual confusion by the "Open Borders" people. Unfortunately, my brain isn't very clear either.]

Land can't move, of course. But borders can. We can't move land across the borders, but we can move borders across the land.

So if half the people ...


September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335783

Spencer Banzhaf:

In a new RFF discussion paper, “Valuation of Ecosystem Services in the Southern Appalachian Mountains,” RFF colleagues Dallas Burtraw, Alan Krupnick, and Juha Siikamäki and I, along with Susie Chung Criscimagna of Eden Housing, Bernard Cosby of the University of Virginia, and David Evans of EPA, estimate ...


September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335782

The WSJ'sNumbers "guy":

The true cost of electricity is difficult to pin down. That’s because a number of inputs comprise it: the cost of fuel ...


September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335781

There is a lot of economic nostalgia — particularly on the left with its fond memories of the unionized 1950s — for manufacturing. In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Obama asked Congress to finance “manufacturing hubs” as a way of turning “regions left behind by ...


September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335780

A Saginaw, Michigan funeral home now offers drive-thru viewing. Paradise Funeral Chapel has installed a drive-thru window (pictured above) allowing people to drive up to pay their last respects.


September 16, 2014, 9:03 am, 1335718
Houses on Sydney’s eastern seaboard, May 2010. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Australia’s central bank is worried about surging house prices, but it appears no closer to clamping down ...


September 16, 2014, 9:03 am, 1335717
Foreign direct investment into China took a breather in August, dropping 14% from a year earlier to a more than four-year low. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

China’s monthly ...


September 16, 2014, 9:03 am, 1335715

Federal Reserve officials gather Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss whether to adjust their guidance on interest rates.

Join Wall Street Journal economics correspondents Jon Hilsenrath and Sudeep Reddy for a live video chat Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the meeting and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen‘s performance so far this ...


September 16, 2014, 9:03 am, 1335716

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, September 16, 2014:

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Highlights

Da Costa’s Take: The Case for Fed Patience on Rates, Message How Stocks Perform Before ...


September 16, 2014, 8:44 am, 1335714
Robert Litan: A recent Brookings study injects some facts into the debate about student debt that should quiet some fears .


September 16, 2014, 8:36 am, 1335713
When the dust clears from tomorrow’s Fed announcement, the crowd’s expecting that the slow but persistent pace of tapering will endure. While we’re waiting for Wednesday’s monetary statement, revised set of economic projections, and press conference, consider that the real … Continue reading →


September 16, 2014, 8:35 am, 1335712

Income inequality may shrink state tax revenues. A new report from Standard & Poor’s tells the tale. Incomes have grown rapidly among the wealthy, but have barely kept pace with inflation for many others. But high income earners both shelter their income from taxes and save ...


September 16, 2014, 8:04 am, 1335710
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 82 of Alain de Botton’s delightful 1993 volume, On Love (original emphasis):

Amorous politics begins its infamous history in the course of the French Revolution, when it was first proposed (with all the choice of a rape) that the state would not just govern but love ...


September 16, 2014, 7:33 am, 1335705

Some nice examples of a lesson I tried very hard to teach my students: it's a good idea to check original sources.

Much of what we hear about the plight of American women is false. Some faux facts have been repeated so often they are almost beyond ...


September 16, 2014, 7:33 am, 1335706

A distiniguished economist, James Hamilton, tries to figure out what's going on with long-term interest rates and equities.


September 16, 2014, 7:33 am, 1335703

Bullseye. A+.

“Hey Dr. X, I actually have three other assignments due the same day as your assignment, and your class is the least important to me, so can I just not do it, or do it late or something? Thanks in advance!!!”

“hey professor!!! noticed ...


September 16, 2014, 7:33 am, 1335704

I would say I didn't believe it, but these days I'd believe almost anything about the federal government.

This is one of the weirdest workplaces in the U.S. government — both for where it is and for what it does.

Here, inside the caverns of an ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 am, 1335642

One of the flashpoints in the debate over the widening income gap has been answering the question, “So what?” What is the real impact of separating wages for the wealthiest Americans and everyone else?

Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services offered a new answer Monday, arguing that a rising share ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 am, 1335641
The national flag of China flutters behind a fence of the headquarters of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in Beijing, in this July 12, 2013 file photo.


September 16, 2014, 7:03 am, 1335640
Houses on Sydney’s eastern seaboard, May 2010. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Australia’s central bank is worried about surging house prices, but it appears no closer to clamping down ...


September 16, 2014, 7:03 am, 1335639
Foreign direct investment into China took a breather in August, dropping 14% from a year earlier to a more than four-year low. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

China’s monthly ...


September 16, 2014, 6:44 am, 1335638

The prevailing view of shadow banking is that it is all about regulatory arbitrage – evading capital requirements and exploiting ‘too big to fail’. This column focuses instead on the tradeoff between economic growth and financial stability. Shadow banking transforms risky, illiquid assets into securities that are – in good ...


September 16, 2014, 6:44 am, 1335637

IT IS astounding how quickly expectations can change. Just 15 years ago the emerging world looked a hopeless case, economically speaking. Indeed, it wasn't the "emerging world" at all, but "less-developed countries". Once again, the growth momentum that had built in a coterie of promising looking economies had flamed out ...


September 16, 2014, 5:33 am, 1335633

There's a joke about conservatives that runs along the line of "A conservative is someone who's desperately afraid that someone, somewhere is having fun."

But now in the very, very liberal UK Guardian we have this: "Brunch is a waste of time, money and drunken pleasure that you don't ...


September 16, 2014, 5:33 am, 1335632



(p. A13) . . . , a lack of "demand" is no longer the problem.


. . .


Where, instead, are the problems? John Taylor, Stanford's Nick Bloom and Chicago Booth's Steve Davis see the uncertainty induced by seat-of-the-pants policy at fault. Who wants ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335580

TUESDAY

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Osaka at 0535 GMT. Australia’s central bank releases minutes of its September policy meeting at 11:30 a.m. local time Bank of Russia releases a monetary policy report Fed begins a two-day policy meeting in Washington. Join our live, video Spreecast discussion with Jon Hilsenrath and ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335579

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, September 15, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dollar Doomsayers Have Gotten the Fed All Wrong Fed Sizes Up Alternate Rate ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335581

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen‘s calendars, obtained by The Wall Street Journal under an open records request, provide a glimpse into how the most powerful economic policy maker in the world spends her time. You can read the original documents — annotated by Journal reporters ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335577

One of the flashpoints in the debate over the widening income gap has been answering the question, “So what?” What is the real impact of separating wages for the wealthiest Americans and everyone else?

Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services offered a new answer Monday, arguing that a rising share ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335578

When a country’s economy grows too slowly, the standard short-term remedies are to increase government spending, cut taxes or reduce interest rates. When none of those options is available, governments often resort ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335576
The national flag of China flutters behind a fence of the headquarters of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in Beijing, in this July 12, 2013 file photo.


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335575

Australia’s central bank is worried about surging house prices, but it appears no closer to clamping down further on mortgage lending, unlike its counterparts in countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the U.K.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia ramped up its warnings about house prices, saying they could ...


September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335574

September 16, 2014, 4:05 am, 1335573

That is a new paper (pdf) by John Cawley, here is the abstract:

This guide, updated for the 2014-15 job market season, describes the academic market for new Ph.D. economists and offers advice on conducting an academic job search. It reports findings from published papers, describes practical details, and ...


September 16, 2014, 3:03 am, 1335520
The national flag of China flutters behind a fence of the headquarters of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in Beijing, in this July 12, 2013 file photo.


September 16, 2014, 2:44 am, 1335519
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September 16, 2014, 2:44 am, 1335518
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September 16, 2014, 2:05 am, 1335516

Too little, too late on the excess burdens of taxation: Cecil Bohanon, John Horowitz, and James McClure show that public finance textbooks do a very poor job of illuminating the excess burdens of taxation and incorporating such burdens into the analysis of the costs of government ...


September 16, 2014, 2:04 am, 1335515
(September 16, 2014 02:19 AM, by David Henderson) I'm a big fan of Vanguard. All of my IRA-type assets are in Vanguard funds. And when I mistakenly claimed in a Wall Street Journal that John (Jack) Bogle, who started Vanguard, had learned from work by Eugene Fama, Bogle... (0 COMMENTS)


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335491

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen‘s calendars, obtained by The Wall Street Journal under an open records request, provide a glimpse into how the most powerful economic policy maker in the world spends her time. You can read the original documents — annotated by Journal reporters ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335490

TUESDAY

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Osaka at 0535 GMT. Australia’s central bank releases minutes of its September policy meeting at 11:30 a.m. local time Bank of Russia releases a monetary policy report Fed begins a two-day policy meeting in Washington. Join our live, video Spreecast discussion with Jon Hilsenrath and ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335489

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, September 15, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dollar Doomsayers Have Gotten the Fed All Wrong Fed Sizes Up Alternate Rate ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335487

One of the flashpoints in the debate over the widening income gap has been answering the question, “So what?” What is the real impact of separating wages for the wealthiest Americans and everyone else?

Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services offered a new answer Monday, arguing that a rising share ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335488

When a country’s economy grows too slowly, the standard short-term remedies are to increase government spending, cut taxes or reduce interest rates. When none of those options is available, governments often resort ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 am, 1335486

Bruce Bartlett brought my attention to this article, which Mark Thoma mused was “The Stupidest Article Ever Written”. From The Inflation Debt Scam, by Paul Craig Roberts, Dave Kranzler and John Williams:

To understand how risky the rise of debt is, nominal debt must be compared to real ...


September 16, 2014, 12:44 am, 1335485
The White House said tougher financial-sector rules were making the country safer -- a message delivered on the six-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.


September 16, 2014, 12:44 am, 1335484
Salim Furth: An examination of Thomas Piketty’s principal claims and the critical responses.


September 16, 2014, 12:34 am, 1335483

The NCAA, a quasi-governmental regulatory cartel, prohibits colleges from paying athletes. So colleges employ a variety of schemes to offer unofficial “pay.” Meanwhile, the NCAA ensures there is no functioning job market for athletes at that level, and no competition to which students ...


September 16, 2014, 12:34 am, 1335482
Teaser:

On ...


September 15, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1335462
Teaser:

In ...


September 15, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1335460
Price Deflation Hits Italy First Time in 55 Years

The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reports that consumer price inflation declined by 0.1% from August 2013 to August 2014.

Italian consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in August of 2014, matching preliminary estimates. The country’s ...


September 15, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1335450
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for August since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at ...


September 15, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1335449

Using aggregate data can bias estimates of exchange rate pass-through by ignoring heterogeneity in price adjustment across sectors. This column uses micro-level price data to estimate pass-through for South Africa, using actual CPI weights to reflect changes in consumption bundles. The result is a micro-based estimate of pass-through with aggregation ...


September 15, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1335448
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September 15, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1335447

Eagles running back LeSean McCoy stirred up some controversy about a week ago when he ate at the Philadelphia burger joint PTY (“Home of America’s Craaaziest Burgers”) with three friends and left a $0.20 tip on a $61.56 bill ...


September 15, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1335408
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September 15, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1335405
THIS week: The latest economic news from China, Banco Santander's future after the death of its executive chairman, and a new study on bankers' pay


September 15, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1335404

For all the talk of political gridlock, it is amazing how quickly a state legislature can act when $1 billion in unexpected corporate tax refunds are at stake. The lawmakers are in Michigan. And their pistons were fired up following an unfavorable state Supreme Court decision in a lawsuit brought by ...


September 15, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1335402

By Rebecca Friedman

In a recent Chicago Fed Letter, Scott Brave and Thomas Walstrum discuss a business conditions survey that the Chicago Fed has been conducting in conjunction with the Beige Book since March 2013. To measure economic activity in the Seventh District, they construct a set of diffusion ...


September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335401

Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have ...


September 15, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1335314

One of the flashpoints in the debate over the widening income gap has been answering the question, “So what?” What is the real impact of separating wages for the wealthiest Americans and everyone else?

Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services offered a new answer Monday, arguing that a rising share ...


September 15, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1335313
Salim Furth: An examination of Thomas Piketty’s principal claims and the critical responses.


September 15, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1335310

Thanks to translator Matin Pedram, Rothbard’s Power and Market is now available in a Persian translation.

Front:

Back:


September 15, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1335309

Following ONS definitions, the official Scottish Executive figures give public sector employment in Scotland as 580,000 in 2012, having fallen slightly from its peak of 600,000 in 2009 (see Table 1). The 2012 figure represents 23.5 per cent of the total employed population. But there is good reason to ...


September 15, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1335305
War and peace factions are at odds in Ukraine.

The war factions claim Putin cannot be trusted but the peace factions have finally had enough of war. The likely loss of Mariupol within weeks was simply too much to take.

One thing is certain, more killing will only ...


September 15, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1335304

One has to be struck by how the markets are choosing to turn a blind eye to the ill-winds of political change that continue to blow through Europe. One also has to be struck by how markets fail to be link Europe’s political fragmentation to its very poor economic performance ...


September 15, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1335243
Just an update ... during the recession, I wrote about the troubles in Las Vegas and included a chart of visitor and convention attendance: Lost Vegas.

Since then Las Vegas visitor traffic recovered to a new record high in 2012, although visitor traffic was down slightly in ...


September 15, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1335242
The White House said tougher financial-sector rules were making the country safer -- a message delivered on the six-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.


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September 15, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335238

As has been done for several years, the Mises Institute hosted our annual Auburn University Economics Graduate Student Reception on Friday at our campus next to Auburn University. It was organized by Jonathan Newman (Summer Fellow 2014, Mises U Alum, and Economics Doctoral Student at Auburn).


September 15, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335236

…the relation between the strength of constitutional educational rights and the quality of education is negative and statistically significant.

That is from Sebastian Edwards and Alvaro Garcia Marin, the paper is here.


September 15, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1335237

1. Daniel Drezner on the history of the gold standard.

2. Comparing the mental abilities of Scrabble and crossword champions.

3. Shabbat plus cell phones: “In the future I would definitely like a day of rest without technology,” said the teenager…

4. “full rationality ...


September 15, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1335235
(September 15, 2014 01:49 PM, by David Henderson) Last week, I posted here and here about Larry Summers's excellent talk in which he advocated removing the ban on U.S. oil exports. I then remembered that when I was the Senior Economist for Energy Policy with President Reagan's Council... (0 COMMENTS)


September 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335231

The Wealth Building Home Loan (WBHL), a new approach to home finance, opened to rave reviews at the American Mortgage Conference held September 8-10. Six leaders of national stature made favorable comments from the podium. Lewis Ranieri, considered the “godfather” of mortgage finance, in his keynote address praised ...


September 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335230

The Tax Foundation has put together a Tax Competitive Index, which finds “the United States has the 32nd most competitive tax system out of the 34 OECD member countries.”

Tax Foundation

Here are few key ...


September 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335229

1. Who’d a-Thunk It? Socialist (and beauty-obsessed) Venezuela has a shortage of breast implants?  “Unable to find the devices in doctors’ offices, some women are turning to the Venezuelan equivalent of the bartering website Craigslist, where sellers post pictures of black market implants of unknown origin sitting in ...


September 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335168

TUESDAY

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Osaka at 0535 GMT. Australia’s central bank releases minutes of its September policy meeting at 11:30 a.m. local time Bank of Russia releases a monetary policy report Fed begins a two-day policy meeting in Washington. Join our live, video Spreecast discussion with Jon Hilsenrath and ...


September 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335167

When a country’s economy grows too slowly, the standard short-term remedies are to increase government spending, cut taxes or reduce interest rates. When none of those options is available, governments often resort ...


September 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335166

"A key observation of the paper is that journalists and expert commentators overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities":

Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth, by David Autor, NBER Working Paper No. 20485, September 2014 [open link]: In 1966, the ...


September 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335165
Excerpts from a note by Goldman Sach's chief economist Jan Hatzius: Q&A on "Why Renege Now?"

Q: You expect the phrase “considerable time after the asset purchase program ends” to remain in the statement. Many others don’t; what are they missing?

A: Many are missing the distinction between ...


September 15, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1335164
The White House said tougher financial-sector rules were making the country safer -- a message delivered on the six-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.


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