Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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- Recent Entries

September 2, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1538345
The Fed's Beige Book is a summary and analysis of economic activity and conditions, issued roughly two weeks prior to monetary policy meetings of the Fed.

"Book" is an adequate expression. This month, the Beige Book is 50 pages long. It's prepared with the aid of reports ...

September 2, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1538344

1. U-Haul Update (above). The table above displays one-way rental rates for a 26-foot U-Haul truck to travel between California (LA and San Francisco) and Texas (Houston and Dallas). Assuming that these market-based rental rates accurately reflect migration flows of people and ...

September 2, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1538297

September 2, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1538296

September 2, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1538295

September 2, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1538294

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has had to sell the nuclear deal to his people as energetically as President Obama has. He and his technocratic assistants have been forced to clarify their interpretation of the agreement in the process, yielding some interesting insights into what the Iranians think they have committed ...

September 2, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1538231
Crews construct a home in Denver in August. KRIS HUDSON/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Many factors, on the demand and supply sides, continue to hinder the home-construction market ...

September 2, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1538230

In response to Paul Krugman's recent post, "The Triumph of Backward-Looking Economics" -- no surprise here -- there is disagreement from Steve Williamson. So let me offer this from Blanchard and Johnson's intermediate macroeconomics text discussing this issue. But first, a brief review of the controversy. ...

September 2, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1538229

September 2, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1538228

September 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1538225
(Don Boudreaux)

Once upon a time in the town of Crowville, somewhere deep in the heartland of America, the town elders secured the imposition ...

September 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1538224

Goldman Sachs is out with a note about its political forecasting model, and how the economy might affect the 2016 White House race. According to the Goldman model, the fundamental factors that matter most are real GDP, real consumption, and real personal income. With the 2012 election added to the sample, ...

September 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1538222

Outgoing Senator Barbara Mikulski today delivered Barack Obama and John Kerry the 34th vote necessary to block a veto override on a resolution of disapproval on the president’s Iran Deal. The blocking vote, no surprise to anyone who can count, was greeted with…. How to say this?… Unseemly glee by both ...

September 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1538223

Are millennials sour on this year’s Democratic presidential candidates? Evidence from the recent nationwide Quinnipiac poll conducted August 20-25 suggests the answer is yes, at least compared to how they responded to Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 and 2012. Quinnipiac paired three Republican candidates — Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, ...

September 2, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1538217
Yesterday, Yahoo!News reported Canada Officially Enters Recession.

Reeling from low oil prices, Canada fell into a recession in the first half of the year, government data confirmed Tuesday, putting Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper on the defensive in the run-up to October elections.

According to Statistics ...

September 2, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1538155
Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before August 24, 2015."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate economic activity continued expanding across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August. Six Districts cited ...

September 2, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1538154

September 2, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1538153

September 2, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1538152

September 2, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1538151

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538148

Here is a great little story by Danny Vinik from Politico’s The Agenda on how so-called marketing boards are surreptitiously turned into lobbying boards.

Industries with a large number of producers find it difficult to organize collectively because of the free rider problem. Mostly, that’s a good thing because it ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538149

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538147

According to polls, the No. 1 thing Donald Trump’s fans like about him is that he “tells it like it is.” I think his fans are wrong about this. But that’s a column — actually a lot of columns — for another time.

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538145

Ohio Republicans are miffed that President Obama intends to take Alaska’s Mt. McKinley, named after our 25th president and Buckeye State native William McKinley, and rebrand it “Denali.” It’s a state pride thing, we’re told. And okay, sure. It’s kind of understandable — even if Ohio’s “outrage” seems a ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538146

As one of her first official undertakings, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gathered a platoon of revolving-door corporate lobbyists and consultants around her to hit up major corporations for six-and-seven figure donations for a pet cause.

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538144

This is good. US productivity in the second quarter grew at the fastest pace since the end of 2013, according to revised government figures. But if you pull back the camera, longer-term productivity growth remains terribly worrisome. IHS Global Insight:

This update does ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538143

In 1942, economist Joseph Schumpeter described “creative destruction” as a “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” There probably ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1538142

Even in the event that Congress fails to block President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran deal, the arrangement raises serious questions that the Obama administration and Congress must address. What, in particular, will become of the non-nuclear related American and European sanctions ...

September 2, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1538137

David Zetland:

I entered my "all in auctions" idea (post with link to paper, presentation, etc.) in this contest being run by the International Center for Climate Governance (ICCG).

Help us find the best climate practice to address water issues and food security

By voting, you will be able to ...

September 2, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1538136

In 1942, economist Joseph Schumpeter described “creative destruction” as a “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” There probably ...

September 2, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1538074

Simon Wren-Lewis says:

Corbyn, QE and financial interests: ... I want to talk about Quantitative Easing (QE). The basic idea behind QE is that by buying long term assets at a time when their price is high (interest rates are low) to make their price even higher (interest rates even ...

September 2, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1538073

This is a question I have wanted to see an answer to for a long time. What is the minimum efficient scale for financial institutions? This is an important question with respect to breaking up large banks into smaller entities. Some have argued, based on very little compelling evidence as ...

September 2, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1538072
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 today:

Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $43.0 billion in the second quarter of 2015, up $2.9 billion (7.3 percent) from a year earlier and the highest ...

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538069

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538068

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538071

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538070

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538067

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538064

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538065

September 2, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1538066

September 2, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1538063
Reading Paul Krugman's recent blog post reminded me of this earlier post of his, which was much in the same spirit. Krugman wants to argue that the Old Keynesians - James Tobin in particular - had it right. This is Krugman's conclusion:

So how does the decade of ...

September 2, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1538062

September 2, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1538061

Just ...

September 2, 2015, 11:33 am, 1538056
Are college athletics and classroom learning substitutes or complements? In this blog post, I propose a simple experimental design for testing this. Consider the following example. USC's academic year features two semesters (Fall and Spring) and the school year starts in late August. UCLA's academic year features 3 quarters ...

September 2, 2015, 11:03 am, 1537995

It’s been an exciting campaign season so far for Americans interested in federal tax reform. Throughout the last few months, candidates in both parties have put tax policy at the center of their platforms, promising to make the federal tax system simpler, fairer, and better for the economy. Many ...

September 2, 2015, 11:03 am, 1537994

New Jersey’s effective tax rate on mature call centers is 35.4 percent, the highest in the nation. New Jersey’s effective tax rate on new call centers is -53.5 percent (yes, negative), far and away the lowest in the nation. And therein lies the story of just how significant (and ...

September 2, 2015, 11:03 am, 1537993
Texas’s $1.5 trillion economy grew at an impressive 5.2% clip last year. Oil-fueled metro areas such as Dallas-Fort Worth have worked hard to diversify, including expanding their tech sectors.

September 2, 2015, 11:03 am, 1537992
Bloomberg News

Is it time to take the European Central Bank’s stimulus off cruise control?

This is the key question heading into Thursday’s policy meeting. The ECB has been buying roughly €60 billion ($67.7 billion) per month in public ...

September 2, 2015, 10:44 am, 1537991

September 2, 2015, 10:44 am, 1537990

September 2, 2015, 10:44 am, 1537989

September 2, 2015, 10:34 am, 1537988
Payrolls at US companies increased by a moderate 190,000 (seasonally adjusted) in August, according to this morning’s monthly release of the ADP Employment Report. The respectable if not particularly impressive gain is slightly below’s consensus forecast for a 210,000 advance. Meanwhile, last month’s rise translates into another round of ...

September 2, 2015, 10:04 am, 1537986
(September 2, 2015 10:00 AM, by Scott Sumner) Markets are just amazingly wise. But that shouldn't be surprisingly, because they must be smarter than us in order to make it tough to get rich. And that's because if it were easy to get rich we'd quickly run out... (0 ...

September 2, 2015, 10:04 am, 1537985

September 2, 2015, 10:04 am, 1537984

It’s been a year since Steven Sotloff was brutally murdered. The images, which have become all too commonplace, shocked the American public — and consequently, the American President — into responding to the horror that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has wrought in the Middle East. But countless ...

September 2, 2015, 10:04 am, 1537983

For months we have been subjected to endless discussions of whether the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will or won’t raise short-term interest rates by a trivial amount in September or sometime. Is the palaver of a committee of economists really worth all this media melodrama? ...

September 2, 2015, 9:33 am, 1537982

|Peter Boettke|

Last night I conducted my first graduate class in the newly established Mises Seminar Room, which is part of the office suite of the F. A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics and Economics. Mises and Hayek. I have had in my office since ...

September 2, 2015, 9:33 am, 1537981

I think we need a 'Papers I wish I had written' category:

Nuance is revered in higher education. That’s especially true in sociology, where scholars spend their lives digging into the fine grain of human social behavior, often finding even finer grain underneath.

Which is why it came as such a surprise ...

September 2, 2015, 9:03 am, 1537918
From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 190,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Goods-producing ...

September 2, 2015, 8:44 am, 1537917

September 2, 2015, 8:44 am, 1537916

September 2, 2015, 8:34 am, 1537915
The recent turbulence in financial and commodity markets has cast a dark shadow over the near-term outlook. Not surprisingly, given the depth and speed of the rout, a number of forward-looking markets-based models are signaling more trouble ahead, namely an extended bear market in stocks and perhaps an economic recession ...

September 2, 2015, 8:04 am, 1537910
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 233 of Milton & Rose Friedman’s great 1980 book, Free To Choose (first emphasis original; second ...

September 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1537904

Somewhere Big Al is shuddering.

It’s a bad day both for Albert Einstein and for hackers. The most rigorous test of quantum theory ever carried out has confirmed that the ‘spooky action at a distance’ that the German physicist famously hated — in which manipulating one object ...

September 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1537903

XKCD, doing his thing.

He notes that the Infiniti Toothy69 and the Nissan Doody are "names to avoid" while the Porsche Zizek9000 and the Acura Pizzajazz are "potential winners".

September 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1537901

That's what the person, Henry Schaffer, who sent me this cartoon cracked.

I responded, "Darn right, Henry! (Or at least more than whatever social science is in second place.)"

September 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1537902

By a former NSA counterintelligence officer.

For readers who've mostly ignored emailgate — assuming it would disappear — and now feel the need to catch up, here's a primer on why it matters.

See also "Excuses Dropping Like Flies as Intel Agencies, Evidence Refute Clinton Email ...

September 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1537900
Luis Armona, Samuel Kapon, Laura Pilossoph, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa

September 2, 2015, 7:23 am, 1537899

Photo Credit: Steve Jurvetson

An investor can and should learn from the past.  He should never react to the recent past.  Why?  The past can’t be changed, but it can be known.  Reacting to the recent past ...

September 2, 2015, 7:03 am, 1537841
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 11.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 28, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 17 percent from ...

September 2, 2015, 6:44 am, 1537840

September 2, 2015, 6:34 am, 1537839
● US auto sales rise to the highest pace in a decade in August ● US ISM Mfg Index: growth slips to 2-year low in August ● US Mfg PMI: growth at 22-month low in August ● US construction spending rises to post-recession high in July ● PMI: Global mfg ...

September 2, 2015, 6:34 am, 1537838
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell in August, sliding to the lowest level in recent history. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.4% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For ...

September 2, 2015, 5:03 am, 1537804

We've previously written that the only time we get really ever get excited about what's going on in the stock market is when it changes by 2% or more from the previous day's closing value.

That threshold is based on our statistical study of the

September 2, 2015, 5:03 am, 1537803

September 2, 2015, 2:44 am, 1537750

Economists tend to focus on reforms that came after 1979 when explaining China’s soaring economic growth. This column argues that they shouldn’t. Mao’s policies also had a huge effect and should not be ignored. Economists and policymakers would do well to look further back in history. A long-term perspective might ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 am, 1537748

I’ve covered these ideas before a number of times, but now the Chinese slowdown is common knowledge, so let’s put them in one place:

1. You can’t invest 45-50 percent of your gdp very well forever.  It’s amazing how long China’s run has been, but it is over.  The quality of ...

September 2, 2015, 2:04 am, 1537747

There seems to be genuine uncertainty about what the Fed will do, or not do, this September.

At a superficial glance, the good news scenario is if the Fed’s decision doesn’t matter much for the markets.  Woe unto you if your economy is so fragile that a quarter point ...

September 2, 2015, 1:33 am, 1537746
Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz interviewed Paul McCulley, former chief economist at PIMCO, and often mentioned FOMC candidate on the Fed's performance.

The Podcast is over two hours long, so let's just go with Ritholtz's brief summary: McCulley Demands Apology on Behalf of the Fed.

McCulley ...

September 2, 2015, 12:04 am, 1537720
(September 2, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) To recap my last post, Scott Alexander's critique of libertarian labor economics amounts to a critique of mainstream labor economics itself. If Scott were in my labor economics course, I could spend hours of classtime responding to his thought-provoking critique.... (0 ...

September 1, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1537705

September 1, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1537704
by Joseph Joyce Global Volatility, Domestic Markets Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the current disruption in the financial markets of emerging market nations was anticipated. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 revealed the precarious position of many of these nations, particularly those dependent on commodity exports. The combination of ...

September 1, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1537675

Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcos Chamon, Senior Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, and Mrcio Garcia, Associate Professor of Economics at PUC-Rio. The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors and do not ...

September 1, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1537674
Auto sales and construction spending were solid, although manufacturing was weak. However the weakness in manufacturing is mostly due to lower oil prices and the strong dollar, so overall the US data has been fairly solid.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will ...

September 1, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1537673

September 1, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1537672

September 1, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1537671
(Don Boudreaux)

Mr. Bob Keener
Business for a Fair Minimum Wage

Dear Mr. Keener:

In your ...

September 1, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1537670
I'm not sure why I received the following email:

Hello Matthew,
I am writing to inform you that the renownedPrimmRanch, located on 10 acres and five minutes away from theLasVegas Strip, will sell at auction without reserve through industry leader Concierge Auctions.

September 1, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1537622

September 1, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1537621

September 1, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1537619

September 1, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1537620

September 1, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1537616
Fellow Jonah Goldberg discusses CNN's use of dated polling numbers in order to determine this month's debate lineup on Fox News' 'America's Newsroom'.

September 1, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1537615

Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi failing the Indian right? On the face of it, the very notion appears preposterous. For the true believer it verges on heresy.

After all, no other BJP leader can claim credit for dramatically catapulting his party from the margins to the heart of national power. No ...

September 1, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1537614

Key Points

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s plan to prioritize a social and economic agenda above security issues was never realistic, and crime across the country shows that his security policy is failing.If Mexico is going to take its place as a prosperous country in a globalized world, it will have ...

September 1, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1537611

Usually I'm a big fan of Ironman at Political Calculations.I've been vaguely following the Paul Romer "mathiness" thread so I read this post with interest:

Economist Paul Romer recently made waves in his profession after he recognized the increasing use of misleading math ...

September 1, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1537550

Today marks my 15th year at the Tax Foundation. Looking back, the world was different when I started: people still had dialup internet, Bill Clinton was president, and the Tax Foundation was just seven people in a small office. Now we have a staff of 24 (and growing). And ...

September 1, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1537549
New Orleans was the only major metropolitan area to have lost jobs in July compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday. MARIO TAMA/GETTY IMAGES

New Orleans ...

September 1, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1537548

September 1, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1537547

September 1, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1537546

September 1, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1537545
John Cochrane's blog post, Whither Inflation, is excellent reading. Basically, John takes a mainstream New Keynesian model and shows how it has Neo-Fisherian characteristics - if the central bank raises the nominal interest rate, inflation increases. Noah Smith seems to find this interesting, but he's got some problems ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537540

In Mississippi, 7.3% of all workers in the state are manufacturing workers who make less than $15 an hour. Losing many of these jobs would have a serious negative impact on the state.

Because of its sample size, the CPS is of more limited use for small geographies. However, there is ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537539

Her new The Silo Effect: The Peril of Expertise and the Promise of Breaking Down Barriers is a tour de force of economics, anthropology, Pierre Bourdieu, management theory, and anecdotes about Sony and Facebook and UBS and Cleveland Clinic.

It turns out Gillian wrote her doctoral thesis in anthropology ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537538
(September 1, 2015 05:49 PM, by David Henderson) Over at Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen has asked people to propose questions for him to ask Luigi Zingales next week. I'm a big fan of Zingales's book A Capitalism for the People: Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity. I... (0 ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537537
(Don Boudreaux)

Reason’s Jim Epstein just produced this superb video on how Uber is creatively destroying New York ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537534

It’s been just over a year since I joined an emerging tech company in Silicon Valley (current headcount about 45), and this seems like a good time to share some initial impressions.

Before I begin, a few important disclaimers – necessarily more elaborate than usual. My role is chief medical officer, ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537536

Save the Children Action Network – the new political arm of Save the Children, a century-old child welfare organization – recently launched a campaign to make early childhood education a central issue in the 2016 presidential election, “call[ing] on elected leaders to prioritize a child’s early years ...

September 1, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1537535

For the last several weeks, Air Force Secretary Deborah James has been touting the deployment of F-22 Raptor fighters – the best plane America owns – to Germany as “the strong side of the coin” in an effort to reassure Eastern Europeans who have seen their air space increasingly violated by ...

September 1, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1537528
Last week, three different measures of consumer confidence came out:

University of Michigan: Consumer SentimentConference Board: Consumer Confidence LevelGallup: Economic Confidence Index
Claim of Importance

Bloomberg states "Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending."

Let's investigate that claim starting with a look at ...

September 1, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1537527

A $15 an hour minimum wage would actually hurt those it’s designed to help, like recent immigrants and other low-skilled, limited-experience workers?

From a recent op-ed in the Washington Post by Mirta Gutierrez, now the executive chef at Tortilla Coast Restaurant in Washington, DC (“A $15 minimum wage would hurt ...

September 1, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1537526
table { font: inherit; font-size: 90%; } .citation, .byline { font-style: italic; } .centeredImage { display: block !important; margin-left: auto !important; margin-right: auto !important; }

A recent article by Jason Faberman and Alejandro Justiniano at the Chicago Fed shows that there is a strong relationship between quit rates—as a proxy for the pace of job ...

September 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1537465

This is from "Has the U.S. Economy Become Less Interest Rate Sensitive?," by Jonathan L. Willis and Guangye Cao of the KC Fed:

... IV. Conclusion Although monetary policy is an important tool for promoting price and economic stability, its efficacy can change over time. This article investigates the interest ...

September 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1537464
Based on a WardsAuto estimate, light vehicle sales were at a17.72 million SAAR in August. That is up 2.9% from August 2014, and up 1.3% from the 17.5 million annual sales rate last month.

September 1, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1537463

September 1, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1537461

September 1, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1537462

September 1, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1537460

September 1, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1537459

September 1, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1537458

As ...

September 1, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1537456

I will be doing a Conversations with Tyler with Luigi next Wednesday, eight days from now (do sign up!).  He is a brilliant and multi-faceted economist, and an Italian — what should I ask him?

September 1, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1537455
(September 1, 2015 01:08 PM, by Scott Sumner) Last year I did a number of blog posts criticizing the consensus view that Japan had fallen into a recession. Many people assumed that two consecutive declines in real GDP meant that Japan was in recession. I argued that the... (0 ...

September 1, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1537452
Those expecting a boost from the ISM report for August were disappointed today.

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for ISM was 52.8, with a range of 51.5 to 54.0. The report was below any economist's expectation at 51.1.

The ISM index, at a lower-than-expected 51.1, is signaling the ...

September 1, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1537451
Wired Magazine reportsthat John List and J-PAL are not the only researchers running field experiments. Ecologists are running "out of sample" field experiments to test which plants, trees and creatures can adapt to extreme heat that they have not been exposed to in the past. The main research ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537390

The country’s manufacturing sector is in decline. In 1979, about 19.6 million Americans were employed in manufacturing. Today the number stands at 12.3 million. Despite—or perhaps because of—this economic shift, manufacturing firms tend to be the recipients of substantial state incentives. That’s one takeaway from our new

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537389
International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde speaks in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday. BAY ISMOYO/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

When questions about the fate of the global economy arise, the ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537388
A steelworker maneuvers around metal trusses at Taylor University in Upland, Ind., in August. JEFF MOREHEAD/THE CHRONICLE-TRIBUNE VIA AP

U.S. construction spending rose to the highest level ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537387

The conclusion to "Leveraged bubbles," by Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor:

... In this column, we turned to economic history for the first comprehensive assessment of the economic risks of asset price bubbles. We provide evidence about which types of bubbles matter and how their economic costs differ. ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537385
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for July. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for June. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 6.9 Percent Year Over Year ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537386
The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in July:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during July 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,083.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,075.9 billion. ...

September 1, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1537384

September 1, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1537383
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 194,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly stronger gain vs. July’s advance. ...

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537382

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537381
(September 1, 2015 12:57 PM, by David Henderson) I enjoyed Bryan Caplan's post early this morning. In my view, the best comments so far are by Daniel Fountain and by Thomas B, although Mike Hammock and Hasdrubal make good points also. I look forward to reading Bryan's responses... (1 ...

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537380

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537379

Europe’s illegal immigration problems are daily growing more serious, evidenced by the human tragedies of North Africans and Middle Easterners dying at sea or in overcrowded vehicles. Precise statistics are in short supply, but the numbers involved are unquestionably at crisis levels.

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537378

India reported slowing real GDP growth for the last quarter. This might turn out to be helpful. While the new numbers mean little for the economy, they may push policy-makers closer to realizing that only difficult reform will enable prosperity.

For the April to June quarter, the first in the fiscal ...

September 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1537377

The Common Core is in the hot seat when it comes to education policy and the 2016 election. Many GOP candidates especially have voiced their concerns about the standards, with Chris Christie and Scott Walker even rescinding their previous support.

While candidates have been criticized for not accepting the standards with ...