Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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October 23, 2016, 8:04 am, 1685924

The deal may “feel wrong” to a lot of people, but for the regulators it ought not to be a big deal:

AT&T’s proposed acquisition of Time Warner…is considered “vertical” because the two companies largely do not compete against each other but operate on the same supply chain.

This is the ...

October 23, 2016, 8:04 am, 1685923
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 17 of the 1992 Liberty Fund edition of John Taylor‘s remarkable 1822 tract,

October 23, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685922

Featuring "quinoa".

October 23, 2016, 7:23 am, 1685921

Photo Credit: Rouslette-Ainsworth


I have sometimes said that it is common for many people to imitate the behavior of others, rather than think for themselves.  There are several reasons for that:

It”s ...

October 23, 2016, 5:03 am, 1685896

October 23, 2016, 4:04 am, 1685894
My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. For Britain’s retailers – at least those who are not threatened with having their knighthood taken away – this should be a time of celebration. The...

October 23, 2016, 3:33 am, 1685892

October 23, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685887

The author is Julian Gewirtz and the subtitle is Chinese Reformers, Western Economists, and the Making of Global China.  I loved this book.  It is an tour de force on China, the theory of policy advising, and the history of economic thought, all rolled into one.  Here ...

October 23, 2016, 12:04 am, 1685878

October 22, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1685869

In the Sunday New York Times, Harvard economist Greg Mankiw defends ticket scalping secondary ticket markets using economic reasoning in his op-ed “I paid $2,500 for a ‘Hamilton’ ticket and I’m happy about it” — here’s an excerpt:

You may have heard that “Hamilton” tickets are hard to come ...

October 22, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1685858

October 22, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685855

October 22, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685854
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to a new correspondent:

Mr. Bill Sieta

Mr. Sieta:

Attempting to shame me into abandoning my support for free trade, you ask ...

October 22, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685853
CLEVELAND — Hillary Clinton entered the final phase of her campaign on Friday, working to ensure a victory that is decisive enough to earn a mandate for her presidency and a surge of voters to help Democrats win congressional races. Emerging from a nine­-day absence from the trail, Mrs. Clinton ...

October 22, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1685851

Canada is, as far as countries go, relatively cold and sparsely populated. Our houses are large by global standards, and we drive a fair amount. We are rich enough to consume a lot of stuff. These factors, together with the oil sands, mean that we have one of the world's ...

October 22, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685846

Dani Rodrik:

The Walloon mouse: ...Instead of decrying people's stupidity and ignorance in rejecting trade deals, we should try to understand why such deals lost legitimacy in the first place. I'd put a large part of the blame on mainstream elites and trade technocrats who pooh-poohed ordinary people's concerns ...

October 22, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685845

Paul Krugman:

Debt, Diversion, Distraction: ...So, about that supposed debt crisis...

Yes, the population is getting older, which means more spending on Medicare and Social Security. But ... quite a few baby boomers are already drawing on those programs; by 2020 we’ll be about halfway through the demographic transition, and ...

October 22, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1685843
(October 22, 2016 03:05 PM, by David Henderson) Paul Krugman, in a post today titled "Debt, Diversion, Distraction," argues, as his title implies, that we get diverted and distracted from more important issues if we worry about the coming high deficits and debt. His reasoning is faulty. First,... (1 COMMENTS)

October 22, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1685836

It appears Belgium's Wallonia has put a nail on the coffin of the EU-Canada trade agreement (CETA) by vetoing it. The reasons, The Economist puts it, "are hard to understand." 

Well, yes and no. Canada is one of the most progressive trade partners you could hope to ...

October 22, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1685832

Democrats are already looking beyond ObamaCare’s slow-motion failure, and Colorado is showing where many want to go next: Premiums across the state are set to rise 20.4% on average next year, and some have concluded that the solution is more central planning and taxation. Voters will decide on Nov. ...

October 22, 2016, 11:33 am, 1685830

If you are a fan ofCruise's work, I think this is a fun 10 minutes.

October 22, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685823
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 80 of Philip Booth’s and Stephen Davies’s excellent essay, “Rules and Order without the State,” which ...

October 22, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685822
by New Deal democrat Watching aggregate sales and payrolls Way back in the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, I used to hear a lot of comments like, “How can people buy anything, when they don’t have jobs?!?”  But the truth is, as I pointed out at the time, ...

October 22, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685821

October 22, 2016, 9:03 am, 1685816
The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and September New Home Sales.

Also the Case-Shiller House Price Index for August will be released.

For manufacturing, the October Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, ...

October 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1685815

Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System
By Wesley R. Gray and Jack R. Vogel
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into ...

October 22, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685811

Don't ask me why anyone would want to do it, but putting a PC into a gun is . . . well, imaginative.

October 22, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685810

Moneyball is a really fine movie. If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it.

"Breaking Biases".

"The Streak".

October 22, 2016, 5:33 am, 1685807

The study was done at Stanford.

October 22, 2016, 5:23 am, 1685806

The UK national debt is the total amount of money the British government owes to the private sector and other purchasers of UK gilts.

In September 2016 Public sector net debt is £1,627.2 billion, or 83.3% of GDP
Source: [1. ONS public sector finances,- HF6X] (page updated October 22nd 2016)

October 22, 2016, 5:23 am, 1685805

I recently watched a BBC documentary (No place to call home) about Britain’s housing crisis, focusing on a suburb of London (Dagenham). It was an insight into the desperate situation many find themselves in because of a shortage of housing, very high rents and a feeling the council / ...

October 22, 2016, 5:03 am, 1685802

October 22, 2016, 4:34 am, 1685801

I discussed in an earlier post on Brexit how to think about international agreements and the constraints on state action they entail in terms of democratic legitimacy. Since that discussion has relevance beyond Brexit, I've pasted the relevant part here below. The basic point is this: the fact ...

October 22, 2016, 4:04 am, 1685800

October 22, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685794

They cost $11 a piece and come in boxes of 5:

In an attempt to create a special snack to go with their high quality beer, Sweetish brewery St. Erik’s has created the world’s most expensive potato chips.

Apparently, St. Erik’s didn’t think Lays or Pringles chips were good enough to pair with ...

October 22, 2016, 12:34 am, 1685789
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October 22, 2016, 12:34 am, 1685788
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingSix Things to Consider About Inflation