Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

- Recent Entries


April 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257819

Dan Little:

The near future: There is a lot going on in America and the world today: climate change, increasing separation between the rich and the non-rich, entrenched poverty in cities, continuing effects of racism in American life, and a rising level of political extremism in this country and ...


April 19, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1257818

With newspaper circulation, and more importantly advertising revenue, continuing to plummet due largely to the rise of online and other alternative sources of information, newspaper companies have responded by adding paywalls requiring people to subscribe in order to read ...


April 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1257814
(April 19, 2014 12:55 PM, by David Henderson) When I figured out my basic political beliefs at ages 17 and 18, I didn't know the term for them. Katherine George, a left-wing sociology professor at the University of Winnipeg with whom I was arguing, called me a libertarian.... (2 COMMENTS)


April 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1257812

The thousands of Milton and Rose Friedman fans out there will be happy to know about the Hoover Institution’s “Collected Works of Milton Friedman” project showcasing the lifetime work of Milton and Rose Friedman. Maybe “happy” would an ...


April 19, 2014, 10:44 am, 1257801
A


April 19, 2014, 10:44 am, 1257800
A


April 19, 2014, 10:36 am, 1257799

Whilst I was gardening this morning, I wondered whether Labour is right to spend big money hiring David Axelrod as a campaign advisor.

The question arises because in gardening, context matters. The point isn't simply to find good plants, but to put ...


April 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1257794

Paul Krugman has a post talking about how tighter monetary policy caused Sweden to go into deflation. Here is the chart showing their deflation.


OK… we can see the deflation there far to the right. Paul Krugman talked about ...


April 19, 2014, 9:33 am, 1257792

Well the price of gasoline just spiked upwards across Canada and the usual media analysis has begun. Five key reasons were summarized as follows by Shawn McCarthy in the Globe and Mail: 1) Approach of the summer driving season leading to a switch to summer ...


April 19, 2014, 9:03 am, 1257767
The key reports this week are March Existing Home Sales on Tuesday and March New Home sales on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released.


----- Monday, April 21st -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. ...


April 19, 2014, 8:36 am, 1257766
● Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions By Gerd Gigerenzer Summary via publisher, Viking In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd … Continue reading →


April 19, 2014, 8:04 am, 1257765

After he won the Nobel, Tom Sargent was “interviewed” in an ad for Ally bank in which his response was simply (and correctly), “no.” The joke is even better than I realized because Sargent has a history of giving very short speeches. In 2007 he gave a graduation ...


April 19, 2014, 8:04 am, 1257764
(Don Boudreaux)

An excellent test of whether or not someone does or does not grasp the core Hayekian wisdom is supplied by his or her response to this passage found in yesterday’s New York Times:

“We understand that we doctors should be and are stewards of the larger society as ...


April 19, 2014, 8:04 am, 1257763
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 168 of 2006 Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps’s 2013 book, Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change; in this passage Phelps discusses “corporatist” economic and political notions that dominated continental Europe for much of the 20th century (and that continues to this ...


April 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1257762

April 19, 2014, 5:33 am, 1257758

I really don't want to know. But in case you do.


April 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1257757
Government failure and the harm it can wreak on local communities is evident in this short piece from the New York Times


April 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1257756
Private capital flows are now much bigger than traditional aid and there has been a geographical shift in where the world's poorest people live. This OECD video provides some useful background on these important changes as we head towards changes to post-2015 development goals.


April 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1257747

April 19, 2014, 3:23 am, 1257745
A revision presentation used at the workshop in Dubai on aspects of supply-side competitiveness in the UK economy


April 19, 2014, 3:23 am, 1257742
Nominal weekly wage growth is now running at approximately the same pace as consumer prices inflation hinting that a long period of declining real wages might be coming to an end. The precise measurement of whether real wages are no longer falling is open to doubt, what matters more is ...


April 19, 2014, 3:23 am, 1257744
Here is an example of a product which has important market failure implications. BBC Newsnight investigates the open sale of legal highs - not approved for human consumption - but which are a growing presence even on mainstream high streets.


April 19, 2014, 3:23 am, 1257743
Tanzanian cola producers are taking on Coca Cola and making headway in the battle for market share. Despite economic growth, there is a fragile middle class vulnerable to changes in world commodity prices and unstable employment and wages. This opens up an opportunity for indigenous food and drinks manufacturers who ...


April 19, 2014, 2:04 am, 1257731

Foreign individuals and businesses long ago cut back on their purchases of U.S. bonds. Their place was taken by foreign central banks. The central banks simply created money in their own currency and used it to buy our bonds.

The Federal Reserve always knew that we couldn’t rely on foreign central ...


April 19, 2014, 2:04 am, 1257730

Here is BP, on New Zealand:

New Zealand has a chronic shortage of equity capital, exacerbated by a generous pay-as-you-go state pension and a tax system that favours passive landholding as a wealth accumulation vehicle. The country consequently imports a large amount of capital to meet the savings-investment ...


April 19, 2014, 2:04 am, 1257729

I just watched the debate between Mark Thoma and Steve Williamson. (youtube video) As I see it, the main issue was the direction of causality in the Fisher equation. In the end, I agree with Mr. Williamson.

The basic Fisher equation is…

Real ...


April 19, 2014, 1:23 am, 1257728

Stocks & Industries

Invest In Stubs, Spin-Offs And Liquidations For Alternative Returns http://t.co/ccezep0K9Y Cites a Gabelli article http://t.co/xTrqEfmQeq $$ Apr 19, 2014Real Estate Management Better Than Owning Real Estate? http://t.co/IFaDLiwTRa Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Definitely adds more leverage $$ Apr 19, 2014Wells Fargo Securities Lending Lawsuit Ends in Settlement http://t.co/w3lSY4Cw8D Low margin business that can go badly wrong in ...


April 19, 2014, 12:34 am, 1257721

The economic success of the West and of free economies everywhere stems from the acceptance within many societies (to varying degrees) that individuals are all equal in the right to own property and exercise freedom from the collective. States, on the other hand, ...


April 19, 2014, 12:04 am, 1257720
(April 19, 2014 12:00 AM, by Bryan Caplan) This Tuesday, Reason is hosting a DC debate on "Should America Open Its Borders?" Cato's Alex Nowrasteh and I say yes; the Center for Immigration Studies' Mark Krikorian says no.The Center for Immigration Studies' masthead reads, "Low-Immigration, Pro-Immigrant." I've dissected... (1 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1257719

Although it’s now been documented that it’s based on outdated research, false or misleading claims, and “junk science,” Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and the Girl Scouts are leading a national “Ban Bossy” campaign to ban ...


April 18, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1257718

On Earth Day 2014, its sponsors want us to both “utilize wind,solar and other form of energy for better future,” and also “help save endangered species.” Although it’s not yet classified as endangered, there have only been eight recorded sightings of the white-throated needletail bird in the ...


April 18, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1257717

The unemployment rate has fallen fast in the Carolinas. But the decline may not be the good omen it seems as the underlying reasons mirror broader trends that are causing some economists concern.

The Labor Department on Friday said South Carolina’s rate plunged 2.5 percentage points over the past year ...


April 18, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1257716

Economy-watchers will have some breathing room in the coming week as the calendar thins out. Reports on the demand for housing and big-ticket items top the list of economic data scheduled for release in the week ending April 25. Here are five items to focus on:

#1: Home Sales May Still ...


April 18, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1257714

President Barack Obama’s visit to Japan and other Asian countries next week is intended to provide further impetus to Pacific trade negotiations that have bogged down over disagreements with Tokyo.


April 18, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1257715

How much of a punch did the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies pack?

Quite a wallop, two economists say in a new paper published Friday by the International Monetary Fund.


April 18, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1257713
A


April 18, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1257712

That's the title of Denver Law Professor Michael Sousa's new article exploring debtors' evaluations of the pre-filing credit counseling course ...


April 18, 2014, 9:23 pm, 1257711
What do you see in this figure from a recent New York Fed study?
Technically, it shows that the Fed's balance sheet ...


April 18, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1257708
Following some comments from Senator Rand Paul, I've been requested to post this again with a couple of tables added.

Senator Paul said last week: "When is the last time in our country we created millions of jobs? It was under Ronald Reagan ..."

That is completely wrong. ...


April 18, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1257706
(April 18, 2014 06:30 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Uber is having a hard time in Europe. The San Francisco company has started its operations in quite a few cities now. This fact has raised protest by taxi-drivers (as any other human being, they do not like new competitors).... (0 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1257705
In "Insatiable" the Economist says "The cost of stopping the Russian bear now is high—but it will only get higher if the West does nothing".

Economist: Mr Putin has used the Ukrainian crisis to establish some dangerous precedents. He has claimed a duty to intervene to ...


April 18, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1257702

How much of a punch did the Federal Reserve’s easy-money policies pack?

Quite a wallop, two economists say in a new paper published Friday by the International Monetary Fund.


April 18, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1257701

President Barack Obama’s visit to Japan and other Asian countries next week is intended to provide further impetus to Pacific trade negotiations that have bogged down over disagreements with Tokyo.


April 18, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1257700

[It starts around the 7:00 minute mark]


April 18, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1257699

Repeating a pattern that it has followed virtually since the beginning of his time in the White House, President Obama’s Administration has once again announced a delay in the process that is supposed to lead to ...


April 18, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1257698
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s Richard McKenzie explaining, in Investor’s Business Daily, that the minimum-wage’s ill-consequences for low-skilled workers are not limited to these workers’  greater difficulty at finding employment.  (HT Mark Perry)  Here’s Richard’s conclusion:

Proponents and opponents of minimum-wage hikes do not seem to realize that the tiny employment effects consistently ...


April 18, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1257696
Immediately after the 4-player Ukraine accord announcement yesterday (See Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?) I commented ...

Lots of Questions

This accord raises more questions than answers.

Did anyone consult the separatists?Who is going to enforce the agreement?Is there ...


April 18, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1257695

1. Quotation of the Day from Thomas Sowell above.

2. Coming Soon: Facebook to Introduce a Feature that Will Notify Users When Their Friends are Nearby.

3. Cash-Only, Old School Medicine: I think we can


April 18, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1257687

The "price of solar panels has fallen more than 75 percent just since 2008":

Salvation Gets Cheap, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ... has begun releasing draft chapters from its latest assessment, and ... the reading is as grim as ...


April 18, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1257686
The NAR will report March Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, April 22nd. The consensus is for sales of 4.56 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in February were at a 4.60 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.64 ...


April 18, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1257682
A


April 18, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1257685
A


April 18, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1257684
A


April 18, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1257683
A


April 18, 2014, 4:06 pm, 1257678

The internet is filled with talk of the fourth season of HBO’s Game of Thrones. This is welcome news, as Game of Thrones probably offers economists more teachable moments than any show currently on the air (even House of Cards). Fans are probably familiar with its economic themes ...


April 18, 2014, 4:06 pm, 1257677

April 18, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1257674
People drift in and out of all income groups as a result of luck or the life-cycle of a career


April 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1257670

Tough age-discrimination laws didn’t do much to help older unemployed men find work during and after the recession, according to a recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  It actually may have hurt them.


April 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1257669

The unemployment rate has fallen fast in the Carolinas. But the decline may not be the good omen it seems as the underlying reasons mirror broader trends that are causing some economists concern.

The Labor Department on Friday said South Carolina’s rate plunged 2.5 percentage points over the past year ...


April 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1257668

Economy-watchers will have some breathing room in the coming week as the calendar thins out. Reports on the demand for housing and big-ticket items top the list of economic data scheduled for release in the week ending April 25. Here are five items to focus on:

#1: Home Sales May Still ...


April 18, 2014, 2:35 pm, 1257667

Michael Lewis spotlights high-frequency traders with his new book, Flash Boys.  These traders use high-speed computers and fast connections to outrace investors, and other traders, to the market.  They now account for more than half of all U.S. stock trades.  And the flash boys spend billions to save milliseconds (by, ...


April 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1257662

Who enriches himself while talking a Keynesian game?  Jeff Deist offers a hypothesis:

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2
014/04/does-warren-buffett-talk-like.html


April 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1257660

“We understand that we doctors should be and are stewards of the larger society as well as of the patient in our examination room,” said Dr. Lowell E. Schnipper, the chairman of a task force on value in cancer care at the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

In practical terms, new ...


April 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1257661

April 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1257659

British retirees may soon receive a novel kind of financial advice, courtesy of the state: They could be told when they are likely to die.

“People are living a lot longer, so we have to make sure they have up-to-date information,” the pensions minister, Steve Webb, said Thursday ...


April 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1257658
(Don Boudreaux)

… are, first, from pages 26-27 of Joel Best’s superb 2001 book, Damned Lies and Statistics:

The lesson should be clear: statistics – even official statistics such as crime rates, unemployment rates, and census counts – are products of social activity.  We sometimes talk about statistics as though they are ...


April 18, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1257654

A citrus disease spread by a tiny insect has devastated Florida's orange crop, which is expected to be the worst in nearly 30 years, and sent juice prices soaring on New York markets.

The culprit? The gnat-sized Asian citrus psyllid, which is infecting citrus trees ...


April 18, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1257653

The chart above is from the Canadian Ice Service and shows the percentage ice coverage of the Great Lakes during the week of April 16 for each year from 1981 to 2014. Almost 40% of the Great Lakes ...


April 18, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1257652

Inspired by this post at Cafe Hayek featuring a video of Milton Friedman discussing “equal pay for equal work” legislation, I found another classic video of Milton Friedman making his case against “equal pay for equal work” laws.


April 18, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1257649
At this time of the year many students are wanting to get up to speed with some of the important data for the UK economy so that they can consider including it in some of their exam answers. Here is a one page revision handout on the UK drawing on ...


April 18, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1257651
Measuring the size of an economy is difficult on so many levels. Of course, there’s always theGDP debate, which asks aboutthe best way to measure economic and social progress. But even measuring GDP is a huge challenge.Nigeria has just experienced a vast 89% increase in GDP having ‘rebased’ ...


April 18, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1257650
Investigating and understanding price fixing and collusion are an important part ofanalysing behaviour in oligopolistic markets. Not all of these corrupt practices are headline grabbers: most are in such unglamorous areas as ball-bearings and cargo rates, which go on unnoticed for years, quietly bumping up the end cost to ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257636

One of the provisions under consideration in the tax extenders discussion is a reinstatement of 50 percent bonus expensing for equipment. This would strengthen investment spending and boost the sluggish recovery. It has done so in the past, most clearly in 2002 and 2003 when it helped to turn ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257633

Breastfeeding in America hit its lowest rates ever in the 1970s, and since then health organizations world-wide have tried to halt unnecessary formula feeding.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization and American Academy of Pediatrics ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257634

An unprecedented period of low productivity growth in the U.K. may partly be explained by the fact that fewer businesses collapsed in the years following the financial crisis than during previous recessions, according to economists at the Bank of England.

The key to the “productivity puzzle” is central to determining how ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257632

The U.S. business sector has been a major laggard when it comes to demand. After a strong 2010, growth in business spending on new plant and equipment has decelerated in each year of this recovery.

Economists think that trend will change in 2014. The latest surveys of regional manufacturers done ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257635

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, April 17

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Da Costa’s Take: Bubbles, Bubbles, Toil, and Trouble Yellen Stakes Out a Flexible Policy Path Lockhart: ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257629
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Did the Bank of England’s asset-purchase program have more pop than previously thought?

A new paper from the Bank of England itself now argues it did.

Past studies, ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257631

The choice to exclusively breastfeed isn’t an easy one, demonstrated by the fact that only 16% of American women do so for the doctor-recommended six months. As the Journal reported earlier this week, women face a slew of cultural and institutional impediments to breastfeeding, including the $5 billion U.S. ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257628

 

Are American workers finally starting to see some decent wage increases? A report Thursday offers hope, showing incomes picked up at a healthy pace in the first three months of ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257630

The rich got richer, the poor got poorer.

recent article by Labor Department senior economist Aaron Cobet highlights the sharp disparity between the wealthiest and poorest Americans in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession.

“While average income has returned to pre-recession levels, income gains have been distributed unevenly,” Mr. Cobet said.

The economist ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257624

The Bank of Japan is hoping that a continued weak yen will put the brakes on Japan Inc.’s shifting of production overseas, a factor that has eaten into export volumes over recent years and stifled the beneficial impact of the weaker currency on export growth.

Even though the central ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257625

Money may not buy love, but it appears to buy years.

Economist Barry Bosworth at the Brookings Institution crunched the numbers and found that the richer you are, the longer you’ll live. And it’s a gap that is widening, particularly among women.


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257623

The day may come soon when cash registers go the way of fax machines.

But cash is still king among large swaths of the population, particularly those deprived of easy access to banks. A case in point: shopping patterns at U.S. discount stores.

Two Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond economists,


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257626
ChinaFotoPress/Zuma PressZUMApress.com

The U.S. Treasury is up in arms about China’s move to devalue the yuan, which the Treasury folks, in a semiannual report, called “unprecedented.” That may ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257627

An economist known for his pioneering work on bias in the news media won the John Bates Clark Medal on Thursday, one of the profession’s most prestigious honors.

Matthew Gentzkow, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, was awarded the Clark medal by the American Economic Association, ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257622

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, April 18
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

“Central banks in the United States and around the world must end their complacency and respond preemptively to the threat [of deflation] by monitoring inflation rates and undertaking aggressive ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257618

Tough age-discrimination laws didn’t do much to help older unemployed men find work during and after the recession, according to a recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.  It actually may have hurt them.


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257619

A few words of caution for Matthew Gentzkow, professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and the most recent winner of the John Bates Clark Medal: Young scholars can become less productive after winning prestigious awards.

Mr. Gentzkow on Thursday nabbed the coveted Clark medal as ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257620

Large manufacturers are more confident about the U.S. economy’s future but less so about the global outlook, according to a survey released Thursday.

The first-quarter PwC Manufacturing Barometer, a survey of 61 U.S.-based multinational manufacturing executives done by professional services firm PwC, found 71% are optimistic about the U.S. economy’s prospects ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257621

The International Monetary Fund said South Korea’s won currency could be up to 8% undervalued and urged authorities to refrain from intervening in currency markets.

The fund, in a report released April 17 but based on an annual economic assessment last year, said South Korea’s large current-account surplus pointed to an ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1257617
Just a quick graph ... heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) from a peak of 555 thousand in February 2006.

Sales doubled from the recession low by April 2012 ...


April 18, 2014, 12:46 pm, 1257616
A


April 18, 2014, 12:46 pm, 1257615
A


April 18, 2014, 12:46 pm, 1257613
A


April 18, 2014, 12:46 pm, 1257614
A


April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257612

While not quite inducing Beatlemania, French economist Thomas Piketty’s visit this week to America has inspired the Washington analog of teenage frenzy. On Tuesday, the inequality expert spoke here in D.C. (top one percent share: 28%) at multiple events. Wednesday he was in New York (Manhattan top share: ...


April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257611

No one likes paying taxes. But this year, some of the biggest losers are married working women, who are being discouraged from working by high effective marginal tax rates, both at the bottom and the top end of the income scale.

Other losers are working women, or unemployed women who receive ...


April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257610

This article appeared in National Review on April 18, 2014.

If you have time to read only one book about the causes of the 2008 financial collapse, read this one. You will discover that the banking crises that occur in some countries but not others are part ...


April 18, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1257608

David Gordon writes in today’s Mises Daily: 

Faced with a welter of arguments in conflict, what is the perplexed libertarian to do? Butler Shaffer’s superb monograph offers an easy way to unravel the IP puzzles. He starts from a fundamental principle basic ...


April 18, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1257607

Per Bylund’s column “What Sweden Can Teach Us About ObamaCare” is in today’s WSJ:

President Obama has declared the Affordable Care Act a success—a reform that is “here to stay.” The question remains, however: What should we expect to come ...


April 18, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1257606
(April 18, 2014 12:36 PM, by David Henderson) This is another installment in my posts on my visit to the San Francisco Fed on April 9. My talk was in the afternoon, but I always like to see the talks that precede mine so that I can get... (2 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2014, 11:33 am, 1257602

Do Americans think they pay enough taxes? That’s the question we’re looking to answer on this week’s podcast and we have two of AEI best polling people help us figure it out. Jen Marsico and Karlyn Bowman join us this week to discuss the most recent polling going on in ...


April 18, 2014, 11:33 am, 1257603

New York Times columnist Floyd Norris hates that investment income gets special tax treatment. He just doesn’t see a persuasive reason for it. So Norris counts it a good thing how the 2013 tax hikes on investment income will narrow the gap in tax rates between “the superrich and ...


April 18, 2014, 11:33 am, 1257601

Earth Day is coming up next Tuesday (April 22). According to the Earth Day website, “Education is at the heart of Earth Day” and Earth Day 2014 is the “Year of the Climate Voter.”  Therefore, to observe that annual event, I’ll be ...


April 18, 2014, 11:23 am, 1257600
Some thoughts from Mashiat and Adrianna, AS Economists from Kuwait English School, on their experience at the Dubai Revision Workshops:“There’s no such thing as a free lunch”.This famous quote from economist Milton Friedman played a center role in the 2 day Tutor2U Economics Revision Conference. On the 5th and 6th of April, we, ...


April 18, 2014, 11:23 am, 1257599
Measuring the size of an economy is difficult on so many levels. Of course, there’s always theGDP debate, which asks aboutthe best way to measure economic and social progress. But even measuring GDP is a huge challenge.Nigeria has just experienced a vast 89% increase in GDP having ‘rebased’ ...


April 18, 2014, 11:04 am, 1257572

Large manufacturers are more confident about the U.S. economy’s future but less so about the global outlook, according to a survey released Thursday.

The first-quarter PwC Manufacturing Barometer, a survey of 61 U.S.-based multinational manufacturing executives done by professional services firm PwC, found 71% are optimistic about the U.S. economy’s prospects ...


April 18, 2014, 11:04 am, 1257571

A few words of caution for Matthew Gentzkow, professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and the most recent winner of the John Bates Clark Medal: Young scholars can become less productive after winning prestigious awards.

Mr. Gentzkow on Thursday nabbed the coveted Clark medal as ...


April 18, 2014, 11:03 am, 1257570
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in March. Twenty-one states had unemployment rate decreases, 17 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 12 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported ...


April 18, 2014, 10:46 am, 1257569
A


April 18, 2014, 10:46 am, 1257568
A


April 18, 2014, 10:46 am, 1257567
A


April 18, 2014, 10:38 am, 1257566
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly to -0.26 in the March update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (April 21), according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. In the … Continue reading →


April 18, 2014, 10:35 am, 1257565

Most major businesses were fairly quick to jump on the social media bandwagon, even when it was clear when they didn’t know precisely why they were there. This has been especially true of major consumer brands, almost all ...


April 18, 2014, 10:04 am, 1257564


April 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1257528

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, April 18
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

“Central banks in the United States and around the world must end their complacency and respond preemptively to the threat [of deflation] by monitoring inflation rates and undertaking aggressive ...


April 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1257527

The International Monetary Fund said South Korea’s won currency could be up to 8% undervalued and urged authorities to refrain from intervening in currency markets.

The fund, in a report released April 17 but based on an annual economic assessment last year, said South Korea’s large current-account surplus pointed to an ...


April 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1257526
I rarely give academic economist jobs much attention, having chosen a different career path. But one plum job did catch my eye recently. The European University Institute are looking for a Director for their Programme on Global Economics: The Programme on ‘Global Economics’ will focus on the connected fields of ...


April 18, 2014, 8:45 am, 1257525
A


April 18, 2014, 8:45 am, 1257524
A


April 18, 2014, 8:45 am, 1257523
A


April 18, 2014, 8:37 am, 1257522
So much for pessimism. Most of the key economic reports for March are in and the general message looks encouraging… again. You can never say anything definitive about the business cycle in real time, but the data in hand today … Continue reading →


April 18, 2014, 8:04 am, 1257520

That is the new and excellent book by Dan Jurafsky, due out this September, and I found it interesting throughout.  Here is just one bit:

In fact, the more Yelp reviewers mention dessert, the more they like the restaurant.  Reviewers who don’t mention a dessert give the restaurants an ...


April 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1257518

Almost certainly as much as you'll ever want to know about the "Amen Break".


April 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1257517

TheMode Gakuen Cocoon Tower in Tokyo is certainly different looking.


April 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1257516
João Santos and Javier Suarez

This post is the sixth in a series of six Liberty Street Economics posts on liquidity issues.

Prior to the Great Recession, the focus of bank regulation was on bank capital with little consensus about ...


April 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1257515
The higher cost for borrowers in a Senate bill reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac corresponds to the protection for taxpayers that was missing in the old system, writes an economist.


April 18, 2014, 7:23 am, 1257514
Some thoughts from Adriana, an AS Economist from Kuwait English School, on her experience at the Dubai Revision Workshops:“There’s no such thing as a free lunch”.This famous quote from economist Milton Friedman played a center role in the 2 day Tutor2U Economics Revision Conference. On the 5th and 6th of April, we, students ...


April 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1257507

Money may not buy love, but it appears to buy years.

Economist Barry Bosworth at the Brookings Institution crunched the numbers and found that the richer you are, the longer you’ll live. And it’s a gap that is widening, particularly among women.


April 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1257506

The Bank of Japan is hoping that a continued weak yen will put the brakes on Japan Inc.’s shifting of production overseas, a factor that has eaten into export volumes over recent years and stifled the beneficial impact of the weaker currency on export growth.

Even though the central ...


April 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1257505

The day may come soon when cash registers go the way of fax machines.

But cash is still king among large swaths of the population, particularly those deprived of easy access to banks. A case in point: shopping patterns at U.S. discount stores.

Two Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond economists,


April 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1257504

April 18, 2014, 6:04 am, 1257503

The University of Angers, France has become an excellent place for doctoral work in Austrian economics, thanks to the leadership of Guido Hülssmann. Several top younger Austrian scholars such as Eduard Braun, Amadeus Gabriel, and Matt McCaffrey ‎– all former Mises ...


April 18, 2014, 5:33 am, 1257498

"All day" is a bit much, but it's certainly worth one listen or two.


April 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1257478

Maybe not as good as the alternate ending for Gravity, but not bad either....

Have a great weekend!


April 18, 2014, 3:23 am, 1257475

About 4.5 years ago, I wrote a short piece called The Good ETF.  I’ll quote the summary:

Good ETFs are:

Small compared to the pool that they fish inFollow broad themesDo not rely on irreplicable assetsStorable, they do not require a “roll” or some replication strategy.Not affected by unexpected credit events.Liquid in ...


April 18, 2014, 3:03 am, 1257450
ChinaFotoPress/Zuma PressZUMApress.com

The U.S. Treasury is up in arms about China’s move to devalue the yuan, which the Treasury folks, in a semiannual report, called “unprecedented.” That may ...


April 18, 2014, 2:04 am, 1257449

Here is a new study from the New Zealand Productivity Commission, and here is the basic puzzle:

Based on its policy settings, the authors estimate that New Zealand’s GDP per capita should be 20% above the OECD average. But it is actually over 20% below average, making New Zealand ...


April 18, 2014, 1:03 am, 1257422

That’s a new volume out from Oxford University Press, co-edited by Inderjit Kaur and Nirvikar Singh.

The contributors are all prominent scholars in the field of Pacific Rim economics. Several are familiar Econbrowser guest contributors, or highlighted in posts ...


April 18, 2014, 12:34 am, 1257421

Law and rights do not depend on the dictates of the state. With this position, Butler Shaffer puts himself at odds with much that passes in our day for wisdom among professors of law. There is an apparent acceptance of Jeremy Bentham’s dictum ...


April 18, 2014, 12:04 am, 1257418
(April 18, 2014 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Almost everyone wants to heavily restrict immigration. Foreigners will take our jobs, go on welfare, poison our culture, and vote for socialism. But there's one kind of foreigner almost every country welcomes: tourists. Sure, locals gripe about their cluelessness and... (0 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2014, 12:04 am, 1257417
(Don Boudreaux)

I’m now reading Thomas Piketty’s already-heralded new tome Capital in the Twenty-First Century for a review of it that I’ll write for Barron‘s.  The book’s a whopper: 655 pages including the substantive footnotes.  I’m not yet even half-way through it.

My instinct is to avoid saying anything about the book ...