Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518455
Asset Pricing Part II, the second half of my online PhD class in asset pricing, starts up next week. Part I and Part II are separate and independent courses, and you don't need a lot of the material of Part I to do Part II.

Syllabus:

Week ...


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518454

Probably of no interest to most people, but if, like me, you're taking niacin to raise your HDL, this is quite interesting.


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518453

In seven categories, no less: adventurers, athletes, criminals, military & spies, public servants, radicals, and resisters.


July 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1518452

Supposedly an old joke, but I hadn't heard it and I like it.


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518390

"Use our interactive map to see what's fresh in your area . . ."


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518389
On July 1, the Spanish Government went to "Full Police State", with enactment of law forbidding dissent and unauthorized photos of law enforcement.

Spain's officially a police state now. On July 1st, its much-protested "gag" law went into effect, instantly making criminals of those protesting the new ...


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518388



A distinguished school of libertarian and neo-Austrian economic thought argues, following F.A. Hayek, that institutional improvements only arise from spontaneous order, and never from conscious design. There is something to their argument, but the designs of Alvin Roth provide counter-examples.


(p. A13) Mr. Roth's ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1518357

When did the earliest advertisement for Campbell's brand new line of condensed soups appear in a local U.S. newspaper?

Previously, we identified what we believe to be is the first newspaper advertisement ever for Campbell's Condensed Soup, but there's some uncertaintly with that ad ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1518356

July 30, 2015, 4:04 am, 1518355
Vox.com had a long, interesting interview with Senator Bernie Sanders covering a large number of political and economic issues. In this post, I want to focus on just one issue he raised: Whether rising incomes for Chinese workers have to come at the expense of U.S. workers. Here is what ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518330

There is increasing evidence that cities offer externalities that raise labour productivity. This column looks at the contribution of US cities to productivity growth at the turn of last century. The findings show that increased specialisation, promoted by improved transportation, was the key to productivity growth. Today’s policymakers should heed ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518329

HIV/AIDS is an endemic economic problem for significant parts of Africa. This column presents evidence suggesting that the demographic shock induced by the slave trade still shapes the contemporary family structures and sexual behaviour of many African countries. Policymakers and human rights organisations should understand that the struggle against HIV/AIDS ...


July 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1518328

If a nation sends all its children to school, can it count on greater economic growth? Does putting bottoms in seats generate human capital? This week, Russ welcomed back the Hoover Institution's Eric Hanushek.

What did you think of this week's episode? What did it make you think more about? ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518327

That is the title of a working study from Credit Suisse (pdf), here is one excerpt:

The problem is that short-termism is very difficult to prove. As we will see, many of the common perceived symptoms of short-termism don’t hold up to scrutiny, and there are some legitimate reasons ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518326

What to do?  What to see and where to eat?  The stay there will be brief, but thanks in advance for your assistance…


July 30, 2015, 2:04 am, 1518325

College enrollment has increased, but graduation rates remain discouragingly mediocre, especially among low-income students. Consequently, researchers and policymakers have focused on how students choose colleges that maximize their potential success, especially regarding “undermatching” — when high-achieving, low-income students enroll in colleges that are less selective than they are qualified to ...


July 30, 2015, 12:04 am, 1518274
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July 29, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1518209
Impact of the "Selfie"

Are you into Facebook, Instagrams, and "Selfies" (taking lots of pictures of yourself and sharing them instantly)?

I'm not but, but in my travels I see lots of it. The popularity of sending "selfies" has even influenced retail sales and women's fashion. After ...


July 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518152
Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt last year, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend. CATALIN ABAGIU ...


July 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1518151
The GDP revisions will be especially important this year.

Excerpts from a research piece by Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch:

The moment of truth
• The annual revision to GDP growth on July 30th will adjust estimates of growth over the past few years. If growth is indeed ...


July 29, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1518086
Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt last year, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend. CATALIN ABAGIU ...


July 29, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1518084
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July 29, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518078

A welcome summer surprise from Team Obama (via the FT):

From auctioneers and barbers to scrap metal recyclers and travel guides, the number of jobs requiring a licence has been expanding rapidly across US states. Now the White House is warning that the ...


July 29, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518076

When Americans think about opportunity and mobility, we think about higher education. Nearly three-quarters of Americans believe that getting a credential beyond high school is necessary to find a good job, and more than eight in ten believe it will become even more critical in the years ahead. But after ...


July 29, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518077

On May 24, 2015, Pope Francis issued his second encyclical, “On care for our common home,” addressing environmental issues and climate change. He called for a “revolution” in the international approach and argued that the situation is “now reaching a breaking point.” The United Nations for its part has ...


July 29, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1518075

Asia watchers have spent years divining the growing competition between the U.S. and China in East Asia, seen by some as a new version of the 19th century Great Game — the Central Asian rivalry between the Russian and British empires. Those predicting conflict feel justified by recent tensions in ...


July 29, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1518073


July 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518011
There is already evidence that home-price growth is starting to slow. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Home prices have been rising at twice the rate of income growth and ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518009

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518010

Here is the full statement from the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518008

Tim Duy:

FOMC Recap, by Tim Duy: The July FOMC meeting yielded the widely expected outcome of no policy change. Very little change in the statementeither - pulling out any useful information is about as easy as reading tea leaves or chicken bones. But that won't stop ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1518007
From Tim Duy: FOMC Recap

The July FOMC meeting yielded the widely expected outcome of no policy change. Very little change in the statement either - pulling out any useful information is about as easy as reading tea leaves or chicken bones. But that won't stop me from trying! ...


July 29, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1518005
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July 29, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1518006
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July 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518001

July 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1517999
AEI president Arthur Brooks discusses 'The Conservative Heart' and optimism on EWTN's 'News Nightly.'


July 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1518000

The chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have focused this year’s 2016 defense policy bill on reform. The National Defense Authorization Act has passed both the House and Senate with a variety of positive changes that set the force on a better path for the future.

A centerpiece ...


July 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1517993
Fed Says Little, Sheds No Light

If the Fed had a clue as to what it will do in September, it likely would have said so. Instead, it reiterated the same hash we have been hearing for years.

Here is the complete text of today's FOMC Press ...


July 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1517992

The world may be getting warmer, but it is not getting much wetter. It quaffed 249 billion litres of alcoholic drinks in 2014, a ...


July 29, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1517991

Photo credit: jonesylife || Oh look, a dozen doves flying at the FOMC!

June 2015July 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517929
Coal trains approach Norfolk Southern’s Williamson rail yard in Williamson, W.Va. in May. VALERIE VOLCOVICI/REUTERS

The unemployment rate has surged in all but one of West Virginia’s metropolitan ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517930
The government on Thursday releases its first estimate of economic growth in the second quarter. It's expected that the economy returned to expansion after a first-quarter contraction. Here’s what to look for.


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517928
There is already evidence that home-price growth is starting to slow. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Home prices have been rising at twice the rate of income growth and ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517927

Here is the full statement from the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517926

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517924

More from Paul Romer on "mathiness" -- this time the use of math in finance to obfuscate communication with regulators:

Using Math to Obfuscate — Observations from Finance: The usual narrative suggests that the new mathematical tools of modern finance were like the wings that Daedalus gave Icarus. The ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517925

From Ross Levine, Chen Lin, and Wensi Xie at Vox EU:

Spare tire? Stock markets, banking crises, and economic recoveries: Do stock markets act as a ‘spare tire’ during banking crises, providing an alternative corporate financing channel and mitigating the economic severity of crises when the banking system goes ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517922

Glen Weyl at Marginal Revolution:

What Is “Price Theory”?: ... I have an unusual relationship to “price theory”. As far as I know I am the only economist under 40, with the possible exception of my students, who openly identifies myself as focusing my research on price theory. As ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517923

Not much to say about this, policy is unchanged, and not as much guidance on what to expect going forward as some expected (i.e., to get people ready for a rate increase in September):

Press Release, Release Date: July 29, 2015: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee ...


July 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1517921
FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. ...


July 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1517919
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July 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1517914

July 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1517913

We care about African animals and British people, but ignore African people and British animals.

That is from Andrew Pearson, via Ben Southwood.  And here is an interesting WaPo Lindsey Bever article about the economics of hunting big game.


July 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1517912

At last week’s hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Secretary of State John Kerry very breezily and somewhat condescendingly dismissed as “exactly wrong” the concern of Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) about our Russian “partner” in the Iran negotiations.


July 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1517911

Zipcar founder Robin Chase has an HBR piece, “Who Benefits from the Peer-to-Peer Economy,” where she discusses how workers are faring in the collaborative/peer-to-peer/on demand/sharing/gig economy, defining one as “marked by many platforms that engage a diversity of peers to contribute excess capacity which can be harnessed for greater impact ...


July 29, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1517907
From the year 2000 to 2006, I was colleagues with Michael Klein at the Fletcher School. He and a co-author have released an important working paper that is discussed here. Based on a Freedom of Information Request, they document that newer cohorts of Marines are scoring lower on ...


July 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1517846

Falling prices may be a sign of economic weakness, but they were a boon to eurozone consumers in the first three months of the year.

Many economists believe falling consumer prices are bad for economic growth over the long-term because they discourage spending and investment and push real debt levels ...


July 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1517845
Children stay in front of their home in El Magueyito, Guerrero State, Mexico, this month. Two million more Mexicans lived in poverty in 2014 than in 2012, according to ...


July 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1517844
The government on Thursday releases its first estimate of economic growth in the second quarter. It's expected that the economy returned to expansion after a first-quarter contraction. Here’s what to look for.


July 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1517843
Coal trains approach Norfolk Southern’s Williamson rail yard in Williamson, W.Va. in May. VALERIE VOLCOVICI/REUTERS

The unemployment rate has surged in all but one of West Virginia’s metropolitan ...


July 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1517842
Just wondering ...

No one expects a rate hike from the FOMC today. And most of the focus has been on WHEN the first rate hike will happen - and also how quickly the Fed will subsequently raise rates. Note: Most analysts expect the first rate hike ...


July 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1517840
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July 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1517838
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July 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1517836

Among its other effects, the Puerto Rico debt crisis has dramatically increased the number of public figures and politicians whose verbal repertoire ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517827

In his recent book, “The Conservative Heart,” AEI President Arthur C. Brooks urges conservatives to stop behaving like a rebellious minority and instead to claim the majoritarian values of fairness and compassion. Brooks writes:

It is neither fair nor compassionate to content ourselves with an economic recovery that only accrues to ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517828

I had a lot of summer jobs. I was a foot messenger in New York for a couple of summers. I worked as a receptionist and mail-room flunky. Before my junior year of high school, I briefly sold ice-cream snacks — sort of yuppie bonbons — on the street for ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517826

“Having a fuller understanding of allied military capabilities, plans, and strategies is becoming even more important as the US Government cuts its own defense budget and force structure. For American policymakers and strategists, knowing what relative assistance allies and partners can provide now and in the future, will only grow ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517825

Last month, I pointed out in the Washington Post that President Obama drew a cyber “red line” in the sand in April when he signed an executive order authorizing sanctions against individuals or entities who carry out cyber-attacks or cyber-espionage against the United States – and that his failure ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517824

Relations between the United States and Israel are at a nadir not seen since 1956. Though cooperation on a variety of issues relating to counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation continues apace, government to government and leader to leader, the relationship is a mess. As the Obama administration struts to a finish, the ...


July 29, 2015, 11:33 am, 1517821

China's crashing stock market and the meltdown in the metals market may be getting all the attention lately, but crude oil is quietly crumbling once again. Oil has plunged nearly 20% this month alone and it briefly dipped below $47 a barrel on Tuesday. That leaves it ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517757
The Federal Reserve will issue a new policy statement Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT. Here are five things to watch.


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517758

The U.K. government Tuesday named Gertjan Vlieghe, an economist at Brevan Howard Asset Management, to sit on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
From Sept. 1, Mr. Vlieghe will serve a three-year term as one of four members of the nine-person committee who aren’t full-time officers of the BOE, ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517759
Women are more likely to hold part-time jobs: 24 percent of working women had part-time jobs in 2013, compared with 13 percent of men, according to the Labor Department. Bonnie Altwerger sits ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517756

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, July 28, 2015:

Ask WSJ Central Banks: We’re launching a new feature in response to the many questions we have received from you privately. Please email your queries about the Fed, other central banks or broader economic topics to ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517751
A for-lease sign is posted in front of home for rent in San Francisco. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

The homeownership rate continued to decline in the second quarter ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517755
WILFREDO LEE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The National Association of Realtors‘ monthly home sales report made a big splash last week with news that median home prices in June had ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517753
People wait at the front door of Chongqing’s first Apple direct-sale store in China this week.  CHINAFOTOPRESS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Six years after the financial crisis sent ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517752
A year and a half in the life of Federal Reserve chiefs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke.


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517754
The Bank of England, London, U.K. Bloomberg News

The U.K. government Tuesday named Gertjan Vlieghe, an economist at Brevan Howard Asset Management, to sit on the Bank ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517747

NEW YORK—Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen may be skipping the Kansas City Fed’s high-profile conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this year, but the central bank’s critics are not.

At least two groups—one on the right and one from the left—are expected to show up in some fashion to press the ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517746
Reuters

The Bank of Japan expects a new measure of consumer price inflation to rise above 1% over the summer, adding to evidence that the economy is escaping more ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517749
A closer look at D.R. Horton’s strong results reveals cause for mild concern that the home-building recovery might be losing momentum.


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517750
Major economies such as Germany need to boost domestic demand to limit further distortions in the global economy, the IMF says. (ADAM BERRY/GETTY IMAGES)

Failure of the ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517748
Rental markets are becoming tighter in many cities across the U.S. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Rents are growing faster than incomes in many parts of the U.S.,


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517745

By Paul Hannon

“Further increases in employment, rising real disposable incomes and gradually strengthening consumer confidence are projected to support a pick-up in the growth of consumer spending over the ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517743

Falling prices may be a sign of economic weakness, but they were a boon to eurozone consumers in the first three months of the year.

Many economists believe falling consumer prices are bad for economic growth over the long-term because they discourage spending and investment and push real debt levels ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517742
Children stay in front of their home in El Magueyito, Guerrero State, Mexico, this month. Two million more Mexicans lived in poverty in 2014 than in 2012, according to ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517744

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, July 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Ask WSJ Central Banks: We’re launching a new feature in response to the many questions we have received from you privately. Please email your queries about the Fed, other central banks or ...


July 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1517741
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dip in June

After five consecutive months of increases, pending home sales slipped in June but remained near May's level, which was the highest in over nine years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Modest gains in the Northeast and West were ...


July 29, 2015, 10:44 am, 1517739
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July 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1517731
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 152 of the 1991 Liberty Fund edition of Bruno Leoni’s brilliant 1961 volume, Freedom and ...


July 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1517730

July 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1517667

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, July 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Ask WSJ Central Banks: We’re launching a new feature in response to the many questions we have received from you privately. Please email your queries about the Fed, other central banks or ...


July 29, 2015, 8:44 am, 1517666
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July 29, 2015, 8:04 am, 1517663

Between 1999 and 2004 we undertook an ecological study of African lions (Panthera leo) in Hwange National Park, western Zimbabwe to measure the impact of sport-hunting beyond the park on the lion population within the park, using radio-telemetry and direct observation. 34 of 62 tagged lions died during the ...


July 29, 2015, 8:04 am, 1517661

When I was last living in Chicago, in the spring 2014, a regular visitor to the department of the University of Chicago and the editor of the Journal of Economic Literature, Steven Durlauf, asked me if I would be interested in writing something for the journal. For many years ...


July 29, 2015, 8:04 am, 1517662

Does Fair Trade help poor workers? Probably not says Don Boudreaux in this excellent, short video from the Everyday Economics series at Marginal Revolution University.

As is well known, however, Don is a rabid, free-market economist with ideological blinders who has been captured by corporate ...


July 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1517658

If you're thinking about learning a new programming language, this may be useful.


July 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1517657

An instance of the more general point: if you make it hard to fire people, you'll make it harder to hire them.


July 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1517656

Personally, I just need my car to run and the quieter, the better.

But, apparently, opinions vary.


July 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1517655

Not my headline and not made up.


July 29, 2015, 7:03 am, 1517594
Reuters

The Bank of Japan expects a new measure of consumer price inflation to rise above 1% over the summer, adding to evidence that the economy is escaping more ...


July 29, 2015, 7:03 am, 1517593

By Paul Hannon

“Further increases in employment, rising real disposable incomes and gradually strengthening consumer confidence are projected to support a pick-up in the growth of consumer spending over the ...


July 29, 2015, 7:03 am, 1517592
From the MBA: Refinance Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 24, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from ...


July 29, 2015, 6:44 am, 1517591
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July 29, 2015, 6:04 am, 1517590

The US armed forces stand at a critical crossroads. The military is as busy as ever, and it must simultaneously meet expanded current needs while preparing for an uncertain future. The next president will make choices about the US military that will define American hard power for much of the ...


July 29, 2015, 5:23 am, 1517588

Photo Credit: BK

I’m not going to argue for any particular strategy here. My main point is this: every valid strategy is going to have some periods of underperformance.  Don’t give up on your strategy because of that; ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1517541

Based on preliminary data, it appears that the second U.S. housing bubble may have entered a new phase. If the trends we observe in the data holds, it would mark the third phase of the bubble, which originally began to inflate in July 2012.


July 29, 2015, 4:04 am, 1517540
(July 29, 2015 03:21 AM, by David Henderson) In The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, I have bios of all of the winners of the Nobel Prize in economics through 2004, technically the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. But there have been a... (0 COMMENTS)


July 29, 2015, 3:03 am, 1517496

July 29, 2015, 3:03 am, 1517495

Paul Krugman wonders if he has been advocating for the right type of policies:

Second-best Macroeconomics: The ... economic problems facing both the United States and Europe have been quite straightforward and comprehensible. ... So no worries: just hit the big macroeconomic That Was Easy button, and soon the ...


July 29, 2015, 2:44 am, 1517494

The production of high-quality goods influences key aspects of countries’ economic performance, including growth and development. This column argues that removing credit market imperfections may help countries transition from the production of low-quality to high-quality goods, especially in industries that are more sensitive to financial frictions.


July 29, 2015, 2:44 am, 1517493

Some have argued that the stock market serves as a ‘spare tire’ during banking crises by providing an alternative corporate financing channel. This column examines the claim using data for 36 countries spanning 20 years. The findings support the three core predictions of the spare tire view, suggesting that countries ...


July 29, 2015, 2:04 am, 1517491

The latest World Trade Monitor showed the volume of world trade falling in May by 1.2 per cent. It slid in four out of five months in 2015 and risen just 1.5 per cent in the past 12 months — less than the growth in global output and far below ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 am, 1517459
Quite a few blogging PPACA naysayers are out there advertising the 25 to 50% increases in premiums for healthcare plans under the PPACA. Charles Gaba@ACA Signups blog points out it is just an opportunity to “shop around” and the premium increases may not be big anyway in dollars and cents. ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 am, 1517458
CEPR’s Dean Baker: Wage Growth Continues to be the Key to Social Security Solvency Dean Baker and colleague Mark Weisbrot have been making a steady case since their publication of the aptly named Social Security: the Phony Crisis back in 1999. In short Social Security does not face a structural ...