Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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May 7, 2015, 2:05 am, 1469270

Robin Grier (with Jerry F. Hough) puts it thus:

The great weakness of the Spanish government was not its bureaucratic nature, but its inability to build an effective bureaucracy until the 1700s. Without an effective bureaucracy, Spain was doomed to a personalistic policy process in which options and tradeoffs often were ...


May 7, 2015, 2:04 am, 1469269
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May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469212
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago leader Charles Evans repeated on Monday his belief that raising rates this year would be a bad idea, especially in the ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469211
An oil drill in Midland, Texas, in February. SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

The U.S. energy boom may offer a modest boost to the U.S. economy but probably won’t ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469210

In brief comments Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams sounded an optimistic note on the economy and said he expects to see further improvement in employment as the year moves forward.


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469209
Americans are more concerned about moving up than they are about how much more, or less, their neighbor might make. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Presidential candidates, take note: ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469205
In April, House Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.), right, introduced a bill that would present a very different direction for U.S. trade policy. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, (R., Wis.) ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469206

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 5, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny Fed’s Williams ‘Very ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469208
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen wrote a letter, dated Monday, to congressional chairmen investigating the early release of sensitive Federal Open Market Committee details by a consulting ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469207
Bloomberg News

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year to a record-low 2.0%, moving to shore up growth in the face falling commodity prices and China’s slowdown. But many interpreted the accompanying statement as a signal ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469204
The first-quarter trade deficit took a hit from the unwinding of backlogs at West Coast ports, such as Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, shown in February.


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469203
Senators are looking at legislation that would put “real constraints” around the Fed’s emergency lending powers. J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Unhappiness with the Federal Reserve may be ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469199

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, May 6, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Two Views Inside Fed on U.S. Productivity Slowdown Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469200
Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, in 2014. BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS

Soft economic data in the first three months of 2015 should give Federal ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469202
A man shops for shoes in Mexico City in February. The economic recovery in the U.S. is helping spending as immigrants send more money home to their families.


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469201
Bostjan Jazbec in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in 2013. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The stimulus programs launched by the European Central Bank over the past year are working, but it ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469197
Rising regulatory costs for the banking sector could crimp future economic growth, new research from the American Action Forum shows. Bank of America took the biggest hit as of ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469198
Senate Finance Committee member Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.)  asks a question during the committee’s hearing on Capitol Hill on April 21 on fast track authority. EVAN ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469196
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry addresses a town hall meeting in New Hampshire in April. CHARLES KRUPA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Rick Perry, who as Texas governor last year ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469194
A mother of two would need to work 50 hours a week at a minimum-wage job to exceed one measure of poverty, a new study found. Demonstrators have protested this ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469193
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) is a steady critic of President Barack Obama‘s trade agenda. CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is raising an unusual alarm over ...


May 7, 2015, 1:03 am, 1469195

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Wednesday he remains hopeful the U.S. central bank can raise rates at some point in the next few months, but he needs to be sure that weakness at the start of the year proves temporary.

When it comes to lifting rates off ...


May 7, 2015, 12:04 am, 1469192
(May 7, 2015 12:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I've long maintained that raising your income only has a small positive effect on your happiness. Csikszentmihalyi and Hunter's "Happiness of Everyday Life" (Journal of Happiness Studies, 2003) finds that your neighborhood's income's effect on your happiness is highly irregular.... (0 ...


May 7, 2015, 12:04 am, 1469191

The WSJ reported today that the “Widening Trade Gap Hinders US Economic Growth,” here are some excerpts of that article (emphasis added):

A stronger dollar and an influx of pent-up imports into West Coast ports are pointing the U.S. economy toward its third quarterly ...


May 6, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1469190
Credit Yahoo!Finance for the inane headline of the day: Employers shrug off Obamacare, robbing Republicans of a campaign issue.

Just 18 months ago, a Republican fantasy seemed about to come true.

The Affordable Care Act was in the midst of a disastrous rollout plagued by dialup-stye ...


May 6, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1469189

The WSJ reported today that the “Widening Trade Gap Hinders US Economic Growth,” here are some excerpts of that article (emphasis added):

A stronger dollar and an influx of pent-up imports into West Coast ports are pointing the U.S. economy toward its third quarterly ...


May 6, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1469128
Teaser:

Clinton ...


May 6, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1469124

On May 7th, 1915, one hundred years ago, the great Cunard liner RMS Lusitania was steaming eastward in sight of the Irish coast, headed for Liverpool in calm seas with bright sunshine. On board were nearly 2000 passengers and crew.

Shortly after 2:10 a torpedo launched by the submarine U-20 of ...


May 6, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1469061
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May 6, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1469060
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May 6, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1469059


May 6, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1468997
The Financial Times blogs has a blog post about the demographic impact on the U.S. economy: The US economy’s demographic dividend is fast turning into a deficit. A few excerpts.

Demographic change is creating major headwinds for the US economy ... One key factor is that there ...


May 6, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1468996
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May 6, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1468995

CBS’s Sixty-Minutes recently featured cancer specialists decrying the high prices charged for anti-cancer drugs in America. They claimed that patients are suffering and even prematurely dying, because they cannot access or take prescribed doses of these drugs. They have launched a grassroots campaign of physicians and patients demanding that ...


May 6, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468933
A mother of two would need to work 50 hours a week at a minimum-wage job to exceed one measure of poverty, a new study found. Demonstrators have protested this ...


May 6, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468932
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is a steady critic of President Barack Obama‘s trade agenda. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is raising an unusual alarm over President Barack Obama’s ...


May 6, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468931
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May 6, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468930
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May 6, 2015, 4:05 pm, 1468928

May 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468927
(May 6, 2015 04:18 PM, by David Henderson) When I teach my Ten Pillars of Economic Wisdom, I spend a lot of time on the pillar "Economic thinking is thinking on the margin." I go into how so many issues are issues of margins. I apply it all... (2 ...


May 6, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468921
Today's BLS release on Productivity and Costs shows a back-to-back decline in productivity accompanied with rising wages. Productivity is up year-over year, but barely, at 0.6%.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 1.9 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. Bureau ...


May 6, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1468860

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s President Dennis Lockhart said on Wednesday that while he is hopeful weak growth at the start of the year will prove short-lived, he wants to see more evidence things are getting back on track before deciding what the central bank should do with interest ...


May 6, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1468859
Earlier from the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures Fall in First Quarter

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.54 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2015. This was the ...


May 6, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1468856

May 6, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1468855

Dogs can run, but they can’t hide from PooPrints.

BioPet Vet Lab, which specializes in canine genetic testing, is partnering with the appropriately named London borough of Barking and Dagenham to track down dog owners who fail to remove their pets’ public deposits.

Starting in September 2016, people who don’t pick up ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1468854

“Elizabeth Warren is right,” Carly Fiorina said on Fox News in March, “crony capitalism is alive and well. Big business and big government go hand in hand.”

The woman gets it.

Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard executive and failed Senate candidate from California, entered the presidential race on Monday. For months before ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1468853

If Hillary Clinton cannot put together the Obama coalition that she seems to be planning, she is going to need the support of swing voters. It seems, however, that allegations from a recently released book on her are potentially hurting those chances.


May 6, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1468852

Following the House’s lead, the Senate yesterday passed a budget resolution which will guide Congress on next year’s spending bills. For the Republican leadership it will be quite a triumph since both houses have not passed a resolution since in 2009.

But it might not matter. The White House has said ...


May 6, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1468848
Every time I post on antonymous trucks, I get dozens of emails from people telling me that self-driving trucks will not happen for at least 10 more years, if ever. People cite insurance, driving skills, city traffic, changing road patterns, faulty radar, etc.

My typical reply is things will ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1468786
Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry addresses a town hall meeting in New Hampshire in April. CHARLES KRUPA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Rick Perry, who as Texas governor last year ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1468785

Brad DeLong:

Richard Thaler Misbehaves–or, Rather, Behaves: A good review by Jonathan Knee of the exteremely-sharp Richard Thaler’s truly excellent new book, Misbehaving. The intellectual evolution of the Chicago School is very interesting indeed. Back in 1950 Milton Friedman would argue that economists should reason as if people ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1468783

Elizabeth Kolbert at the New Yorker:

The G.O.P.’s War on Science Gets Worse: During last fall’s midterm election campaign, “I’m not a scientist” became a standard Republican answer to questions about climate change. ... Now, it seems, they are trying to go one better. They are trying to prevent ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1468784

Via EurekAlert!:

Study finds foreclosures fueled racial segregation in US: Some 9 million American families lost their homes to foreclosure during the late 2000s housing bust, driving many to economic ruin and in search of new residences. Hardest hit were black, Latino, and racially integrated neighborhoods, according to a ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1468782
Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 220,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April (with a range of estimates between 180,000 and 335,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.4%.


May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468781
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May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468777
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May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468779
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May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468780
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May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468778
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May 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1468776

This week, EconTalk host Russ Roberts interviewed Michael O'Hare on the somewhat mysterious world of art museums and the way their visitors experience art there.

As always, we'd like to hear what you took from this week's conversation, and to continue our own conversation here.


May 6, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1468775

Texas is cutting taxes this year. Although we do not yet know exactly what will get cut because the House and Senate are sorting out competing bills, we already know the outcome: Better-off Texans will get more tax relief dollars than low-income residents of the Lone Star State.

Why? Because ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468766
(May 6, 2015 11:26 AM, by Scott Sumner) Ross Douthat recently made this observation: 1.) The modern welfare state has succeeded in substantially cutting our country's poverty rate. This is a point that both right and left sometimes obscure, the right because it complicates a simple "we fought... (0 ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468765
by Joseph Joyce The Shifting Consensus on Capital Controls: Gallagher’s “Ruling Capital” Among the many consequences of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 was a shift in the IMF’s stance on capital controls. The IMF, which once urged developing economies to emulate the advanced economies in deregulating the capital account, ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468762

Now that we’re at the beginning of college graduation season, I thought it would be a good time to show the updated chart above of the huge college degree gap by gender for the upcoming College Class of 2015 (data here). Based ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468763

Those who support the speculators in the common and junior preferred stock of failed GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac often suggest that if the government not changed the deal in 2012, both would have by now paid back their taxpayer bailout. The latter is in the form of $189 ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468761

This blog series analyzes the most important Iran news events of the past week and provides an outlook of the regime’s strategic calculus.

The Iranian leadership is finally settling in to the reality of a potential nuclear deal come this summer, and bracing for the political and economic impact. Optimism in ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468764
Fellow Jonah Goldberg discusses how the recent events in Baltimore is sparking debates over government dependence on Fox News' 'Your World with Neil Cavuto.'


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468757

As the United Kingdom’s own experience with earlier sterling crises amply attests, the last thing that a country not paying its way in the world needs is a period of political instability. Sadly, that is what seems to be in prospect for the United Kingdom as it goes to the ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468760

This is emerging as a glorious week – really a glorious year — for patient empowerment, and for participatory science.

The opening salvo, perhaps, was the publication of Eric Topol’s The Patient Will See You Now, offering the perspective of a “techno-optimist” (his term) on the disruptive potential of the smart ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468758

Senator Lindsay Graham is an entitlement reform hero – a guy who’s been willing to get out there on crucially important but politically unpopular issues. But in a discussion of his potential presidential campaign (probability 0.925, he says) he makes what I now consider to be a mistake on ...


May 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1468759

A midnight massacre of 11 slumbering soldiers by leftist guerrillas in the Colombian province of Cauca on April 14 appears to have exhausted the country’s patience with the three-year peace process that is the cornerstone of President Juan Manuel Santos’s second term. In light of a poll released this ...


May 6, 2015, 11:33 am, 1468754


May 6, 2015, 11:33 am, 1468753

Now that we’re at the beginning of college graduation season, I thought it would be a good time to show the updated chart above of the huge college degree gap by gender for the upcoming College Class of 2015 (data here). Based ...


May 6, 2015, 11:03 am, 1468691

In commemoration of National Small Business Week, we are covering some facts on U.S. businesses.

Most small businesses are pass-through businesses. A pass-through business is a type of business where the owner pay the tax on his or her individual income tax return.

According to 2011 Census data, pass-through businesses ...


May 6, 2015, 11:03 am, 1468690

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, May 6, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Two Views Inside Fed on U.S. Productivity Slowdown Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm ...


May 6, 2015, 11:03 am, 1468689
Senate Finance Committee member Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.)  asks a question during the committee’s hearing on Capitol Hill on April 21 on fast track authority. EVAN ...


May 6, 2015, 11:03 am, 1468688
Rising regulatory costs for the banking sector could crimp future economic growth, new research from the American Action Forum shows. Bank of America took the biggest hit as of ...


May 6, 2015, 10:35 am, 1468687
Private-sector payrolls increased by a sluggish 169,000 in April, according to this morning’s release of the ADP Employment Report. The rise is the weakest gain in 15 months and well below the 200,000-plus increase that was expected via Econoday.com’s consensus forecast. The weak raises new questions about the health of ...


May 6, 2015, 10:34 am, 1468686
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May 6, 2015, 10:05 am, 1468683

The author is Nathaniel Popper and the subtitle is Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money.

This excellent work is the book on Bitcoin you’ve been waiting for, most importantly it doesn’t require that you are the kind of person who wants ...


May 6, 2015, 9:33 am, 1468679

Dan Rigby, Michael Burton and Jayson L. Lusk in AJAE:

Research quality is an increasingly important metric for determining funding allocations, promotion and tenure, and professional prestige. A key metric often used as a proxy for research quality is the ranking of the journal in which a manuscript appears. While citation-based ...


May 6, 2015, 9:33 am, 1468678

Choong-soo Kim, James Joo-Jin Kim Visiting Professor of Korean Studies, University of Pennsylvania; former Governor, Bank of Korea.

Has the experience of the crisis changed your view of the central bank policy tool kit?

Governor Kim: The answer is yes, indeed. I say this from the perspective of a former Governor of ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468616
Bostjan Jazbec in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in 2013. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The stimulus programs launched by the European Central Bank over the past year are working, but it ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468617
A man shops for shoes in Mexico City in February. The economic recovery in the U.S. is helping spending as immigrants send more money home to their families.


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468615

MARSHALL, Minn. —Soft economic data in the first three months of 2015 should give Federal Reserve officials pause when it comes to raising interest rates, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said Tuesday.

“It’s only one quarter, and you don’t make policy based on three months of data, but ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468614

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, May 6, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Two Views Inside Fed on U.S. Productivity Slowdown Yellen Meetings With Financial Firm ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468612
Rising regulatory costs for the banking sector could crimp future economic growth, new research from the American Action Forum shows. Bank of America took the biggest hit as of ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468613
Senate Finance Committee member Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.)  asks a question during the committee’s hearing on Capitol Hill on April 21 on fast track authority. EVAN ...


May 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1468611
From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 169,000 jobs from March to April according to the March ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
...
Goods-producing ...


May 6, 2015, 8:35 am, 1468610
The Washington Post wonders if the US has fallen into a new recession. The motivation for asking is the stall-speed growth in first-quarter GDP, which increased by a slim 0.2%. The fractional gain is quoted in quarter-over-quarter terms, which is the standard reference. By that measure, there’s virtually no growth. ...


May 6, 2015, 8:35 am, 1468609

My dad taught a teenage me an important lesson when he helped me file my first federal income tax return. I earned the minimum wage at a part-time job, and didn’t have to file. But he explained that I should file, knowing my effort would be rewarded. “You don’t earn ...


May 6, 2015, 8:35 am, 1468608

A transformative gift for TPC. The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center has established the Pozen Director’s Chair, thanks to a major gift from Robert C. Pozen. “I am glad to support… one of the few American organizations that consistently provides nonpartisan and thoughtful analysis of current tax issues.” He ...


May 6, 2015, 8:34 am, 1468607

AP (“The 40-Hour Work Week Is a Thing of the Past“):

The phrase “nine to five” is becoming an anachronism.

About half of all managers work more than 40 hours ...


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468601

Maybe explains why--despite color being so important to some buyers--color choices seem rather limited these days.


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468602

I liked this bit:

Dave Navarro has a new love in his life.

The 47-year-old Jane's Addiction guitarist is dating Fox News anchor, Andrea Tantaros, 36, reportsUs Weekly.

'Even though they seem like opposites, they have a lot in common,' an insider ...


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468600

May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468599

A few years ago a reader wrote me asking how could I, at my age, still have the tagline for this blog be "Things One Middle-Aged Economist Finds Interesting".

Well, given this latest research--the "science is settled"!--I rest my case.


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468598
Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy



The contribution of labor input to the potential GDP growth rate for the United States has changed over time. We decompose this contribution into two components: ...


May 6, 2015, 7:24 am, 1468597

Photo Credit: arsheffield

I imagine the SEC (or the Fed, IRS, or the FSOC) saying: “If we only have enough data, we can answer the policy questions that we are interested in, create better policy, prosecute bad guys, ...


May 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1468536
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease 4.6 % in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 1, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index decreased ...


May 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1468535

A solid empirical result is that voters reward governments for recent economic prosperity. This column presents new evidence that the electoral fate of governing parties is also associated with the electorate’s wider ‘subjective well-being’. Policymakers who want to win should focus on more a broad range of factors that matter to ...


May 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1468534
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May 6, 2015, 6:35 am, 1468533
● Pickup in Service Industries Points to U.S. Growth Rebound: ISM | Bloomberg ● US service sector jobs growth accelerates to 10-month high in April: PMI | Markit ● US Trade Deficit at 6-Year-High | US&WR ● Eurozone March retail sales weaker than expected | Reuters ● Eurozone growth continues ...


May 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1468493

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, March 2015 was an especially remarkable month for imports coming into the United States. Looking at the year-over-year growth rate of the value of goods that the U.S. imports from China, that's something of an understatement:


May 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1468492

May 6, 2015, 4:44 am, 1468491
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May 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1468437

Our level of income is unarguably dependent on where we live in the world. But evidencing this is tricky. This column presents a model that explains global income variability using one variable only – where you live. The results suggest that we might want to reassess how we think about ...


May 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1468436
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May 6, 2015, 2:05 am, 1468435

After the pagan fighters left their stronghold, a crowd of  Christian Alexandrians and soldiers swarmed the hill.  One of them took an axe and with all his strength struck the jaw of the monumental statue of Serapis…The crowd then hacked the rest of the statue into pieces and dragged the ...


May 6, 2015, 2:05 am, 1468434

1. Circa 1970, “43 percent of blacks under 21 years of age [have]…a great respect for the [Black Panther Party].”  Many thousands of young black people joined the party.

2. The North Vietnamese “discussed releasing POWs in exchange for the release of Panthers from U.S. jails.”

3. Algeria granted the Panthers national ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 am, 1468433
Picture (literally) this: The Wailing Wall seen from a distance that would represent base to height. With as normal observant Jews at that base praying and inserting prayers into cracks in the wall. At the height a depiction of the Prophet mounted on his horse immediately prior to his Ascent ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 am, 1468432

If you have trouble registering for this event, please email conferences@aei.org.

Fatherhood is a mixed bag of fun, fury, and failure. So much is lost — no more impulsive road trips or catnaps during football commercials. And yet, as an all-star team of conservative essayists write in “The Dadly Virtues: Adventures ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 am, 1468389

Michigan voters have resoundingly defeated Proposal 1, a tax package designed to raise an additional $2 billion a year, largely through sales and gas tax increases. Our pre-election analysis of the ballot initiative can be found here.

As of this writing, 


May 6, 2015, 12:44 am, 1468388
2016 candidates, take note: Economic mobility is a bigger worry than income inequality, poll finds


May 6, 2015, 12:04 am, 1468386
(May 6, 2015 12:16 AM, by Bryan Caplan) There really ought to be a paper on George Orwell and Public Choice. Thanks to Loyola University senior Michael Makovi, there finally is. He's done a great job - "George Orwell as Public Choice Economist," forthcoming in The American Economist,... (0 ...