Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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- Recent Entries


May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480963
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Debate heated up among the Bank of Japan’s policy board members in late April over the BOJ’s 2.0% inflation target and commitment to defeat deflation, highlighting ...


May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480962

How realistic is annual growth of 2% in Japan? That’s the level of expansion targeted by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration as it seeks to bring the good times back to Japan ...


May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480961

Via The Telegraph: a world map showing the national debt burden by country around the globe:

Some excerpts from the related article, which quotes Andrew Wilson, the head of Goldman ...


May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480958

The start of a longer post from Cecchetti & Schoenholtz

Do central banks need capital?: If you ask monetary economists whether we should care if a central bank’s capital level falls below zero (even for an extended period of time), most will say no. Pose the same question to ...


May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480960

May 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480959

John Cochrane points to this from the Richmond Fed (he has a few additional comments):

Bailout Barometer: How Large is the Financial Safety Net?: ...The Bailout Barometer is our estimate of the share of financial system liabilities for which the federal government provides protection from losses. In ...


May 27, 2015, 4:44 am, 1480957

In the policy circles, there are confronting positions regarding Greece’s assistance programme and the structural reforms it should implement. This column argues that the best response is pragmatism and sequential compromise. Efficiency requires an assistance programme providing the country with debt relief with an intervention of an institution such as ...


May 27, 2015, 4:44 am, 1480956

China has experienced a decade-long housing market boom, with the market being compared to the housing bubbles of Japan in the 1980s and the US in the 2000s. This column uses data on mortgage loans in 120 cities to investigate whether the Chinese housing market might trigger a financial crisis. ...


May 27, 2015, 4:05 am, 1480955

It is far from clear whether Europe can act as an engine of world recovery.

You will find more pessimism here, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.


May 27, 2015, 2:05 am, 1480911

I have been hearing this question more and more lately, even in China.  Overall I think it has gone from an underrated effect to an overrated effect.  Tim Worstall offers an introduction to this debate.

Let’s not forget that you do in fact pay for Facebook access, indirectly, when ...


May 27, 2015, 2:04 am, 1480910
(May 27, 2015 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Here's a great yarn of betting and political irrationality courtesy of EconLog reader Mathieu Giroux, used with his permission. My Uncle, like the vast majority of people living in North America, is not a fan of the idea of open... (0 COMMENTS)


May 27, 2015, 2:04 am, 1480909

As an invited member of Investor Business Daily’s “Brain Trust” – a select group of opinion writers including Steve Moore and Art Laffer – I have a front page article in Wednesday’s titled “Saudis’ Drive To Kill U.S. Shale Has Backfired.” Here’s an ...


May 27, 2015, 1:33 am, 1480908

As an invited member of Investor Business Daily’s “Brain Trust” – a select group of opinion writers including Steve Moore and Art Laffer – I have a front page article in Wednesday’s titled “Saudis’ Drive To Kill U.S. Shale Has Backfired.” Here’s an ...


May 27, 2015, 12:04 am, 1480877


May 26, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1480876


This post is about the Alberta Prosperity Certificate, one of the world's stranger monetary experiments. Issued in late 1936 and early 1937 by the newly-elected Alberta government, these ...


May 26, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1480861
Jeffrey Lacker Reuters

BATON ROUGE, La.—Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said Tuesday he still hasn’t decided whether to vote for an interest-rate increase at the ...


May 26, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1480860
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May 26, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1480859
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May 26, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1480858
Teaser:

The ...


May 26, 2015, 10:05 pm, 1480856

Roughly 50% of Chinese savings – amounting to as much as half of GDP – lie in real estate alone, with 20% in deposits, 11% in stocks, and 12% in bonds. To compare, in the United States, real estate, insurance, and pensions each account for about 20% of ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1480855

After putting the intelligence budget through three years of sequestration-level funding—and the likely return to sequestration levels this year, the United States is in serious jeopardy of repeating the fatal mistakes of the early 1990s when it drastically slashed its intelligence budget and exposed the nation to serious risks. In ...


May 26, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1480831

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen plans to skip the central bank’s high-profile conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this year.

Ms. Yellen “does not plan to attend the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August,” a Fed spokesperson said Tuesday. “However, she looks forward to ...


May 26, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1480830

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released on Tuesday was the latest report to show a relentless rise in housing prices, causing some economists to ask: Is another bubble forming?

According to Tuesday’s data housing prices have been climbing for 35 consecutive months, but economists pointed to several reasons why that ...


May 26, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1480829

The Federal Reserve and other financial regulators have yet to adequately deal with the problem of banks that are viewed as too big to fail—and many of their interventions only heighten the perception, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Tuesday.

“Perceived guarantees thus encourage fragility, which induces interventions, which encourages further ...


May 26, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1480827
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May 26, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1480821

Tuesday a revolutionary court in Tehran began trying Washington Post Iran correspondent Jason Rezaian on charges of espionage. Rezaian, who has already been held for more than ten months, is but one of four American hostages which the Islamic Republic holds.

Former FBI agent Robert Levinson just passed his 3,000th day ...


May 26, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1480820

This Monday we celebrated Memorial Day, a day of commemorating those who gave their life in the service of their country. Even as we honor their memory, let’s not forget about the veterans who made it home but experience a traumatic mental state called Post traumatic ...


May 26, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1480819
To highlight the enormous and growing income inequality issue, please consider California Dreaming: Record $500 Million Tag on L.A. Home.

Nile Niami, a film producer and speculative residential developer, is pouring concrete in L.A.’s Bel Air neighborhood for a compound with a 74,000-square-foot (6,900-square-meter) main residence and ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480765

Tax Foundation Forum: Making Sense of Profit Shifting has reached its midpoint. In this halftime report, we provide a synopsis of the first nine of the 18 interviews in the series. This two-part review summarizes the key takeaways to this point and focuses on the interview series’s six underlying ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480764

HERZLIYA, Israel–Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Monday the central bank expects to follow a “gradual and relatively slow” trajectory of short-term interest-rate increases over the next three to four years to bring borrowing costs back to “normal” levels.

Mr. Fischer said observers focus too much on when


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480763
MICHAEL GOTTSCHALK/PHOTOTHEK/GETTY IMAGES

Financial chiefs from the Group of Seven nations will discuss policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and fight potential risks from the present loose monetary policy, ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480762

A top Bank of England official said Tuesday the central bank may soon need to ask banks to maintain thicker cushions of capital.

Martin Taylor, a former banker who sits on the BOE’s Financial Policy Committee, which safeguards financial stability, said the U.K. may be nearing that point in the economic ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480761

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 26, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Confronts an Economy Plagued by Mismeasurement Yellen: Fed on Track to ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480759
Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve could take a slower approach to raising interest rates if weaker-than-expected growth overseas ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480760

TALLINN, Estonia—Large-scale bond purchases by the European Central Bank may spur governments to build up debt without taking needed steps to overhaul their economies, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said Tuesday.

“It is no secret that I did not support the plan to buy government bonds. ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480758

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen plans to skip the central bank’s high-profile conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this year.

Ms. Yellen “does not plan to attend the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August,” a Fed spokesperson said Tuesday. “However, she looks forward to ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1480757

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released on Tuesday was the latest report to show a relentless rise in housing prices, causing some economists to ask: Is another bubble forming?

According to Tuesday’s data housing prices have been climbing for 35 consecutive months, but economists pointed to several reasons why that ...


May 26, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1480756
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May 26, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1480755
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May 26, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1480753
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May 26, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1480747
Two more regional manufacturing reports came out today, from Dallas and Richmond.

The Dallas region was the weakest in six years thanks to oil. For details, please see Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Collapses: Lowest Production Reading in 6 Years, Orders Contract 7th Month, New Orders 5th Month.


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480686
Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis speaks at a conference in Athens. His government faces some tough decisions over the next month.  Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

As Greece ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480684

HERZLIYA, Israel–Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Monday the central bank expects to follow a “gradual and relatively slow” trajectory of short-term interest-rate increases over the next three to four years to bring borrowing costs back to “normal” levels.

Mr. Fischer said observers focus too much on when


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480685
Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland BLOOMBERG NEWS

In a speech that didn’t comment on monetary policy outlook, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480683
MICHAEL GOTTSCHALK/PHOTOTHEK/GETTY IMAGES

Financial chiefs from the Group of Seven nations will discuss policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and fight potential risks from the present loose monetary policy, ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480681

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 26, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Confronts an Economy Plagued by Mismeasurement Yellen: Fed on Track to ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480679
Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve could take a slower approach to raising interest rates if weaker-than-expected growth overseas ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480682

A top Bank of England official said Tuesday the central bank may soon need to ask banks to maintain thicker cushions of capital.

Martin Taylor, a former banker who sits on the BOE’s Financial Policy Committee, which safeguards financial stability, said the U.K. may be nearing that point in the economic ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480680

TALLINN, Estonia—Large-scale bond purchases by the European Central Bank may spur governments to build up debt without taking needed steps to overhaul their economies, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said Tuesday.

“It is no secret that I did not support the plan to buy government bonds. ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1480678
Earlier today the last two regional Fed surveys for May were released. As expected, the Dallas Fed was especially weak due primarily to weakness in the oil sector.

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts Further

Texas factory activity declined again in May, according to business ...


May 26, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1480677
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May 26, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1480672
Teaser:

Millennials ...


May 26, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1480666
(Don Boudreaux)

One of my closest friends is Lyle Albaugh.  He’s an extraordinarily smart, entrepreneurial, energetic, creative, and successful businessman in the D.C. area. ...


May 26, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1480665

Last weekend’s dismal local election results in Spain should be a wake-up call for Europe. Since not only do those elections suggest that Spain now has joined the ranks of other major European countries like France and Italy, where political fragmentation has taken root. Those results also have clouded significantly ...


May 26, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1480664

When economists talk about America suffering a “great stagnation,” that is the conclusion they draw from the data represented in these two charts, via a new Goldman Sachs research note:

The two charts basically ...


May 26, 2015, 3:34 pm, 1480659

1. Find better stories.

The Canadian media does a pretty good job of covering Statistics Canada and OECD news releases, and think tank reports. Where they lag behind the US is in coverage of academic research.

Take, for example, a paper published in Canadian Public Policy last year by Luc ...


May 26, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1480598

Chris Blattman:

The geek heretic: My first job abroad was helping to roll out rural Internet in India, by radio. It was 2001, the peak of the dot com boom, but before the ubiquity of mobile phones. Connecting remote villages in India to the Internet via radio waves was the ...


May 26, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1480597

From today's links, Lane Kenworthy asks Tim Smeeding about reducing inequality:

How to reduce incomeinequality: Tim Smeeding knows more than virtually anyone else about inequality and poverty in the United States and other rich nations. I asked him what he recommends to reduce income inequality. His ...


May 26, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1480596
The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases has occurred. In October 2013, the National index was up 10.9% year-over-year (YoY). In March 2015, the index was up 4.1% YoY. However the YoY change has only declined slightly over the last six months.

As I've noted before, I ...


May 26, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1480594
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May 26, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1480587

May 26, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1480586
(May 26, 2015 12:01 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Spain voted on Sunday in a number of administrative jurisdictions. These were local elections, so one should not underestimate the local peculiarities that may have influenced the outcome. However, the big news is that the Popular (Christian-Democrats) and the Socialist... (0 COMMENTS)


May 26, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1480585
(Don Boudreaux)

Quoting page 228 of Stanley Lebergott’s indispensable 1984 volume, The Americans: An Economic Record:

[A]nnual deaths in the entire United States from ...


May 26, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1480584
Fellow Jonah Goldberg discusses the Supreme Court's hearing on Obamacare on Fox News' 'America's Newsroom'


May 26, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1480583
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses the ongoing situation in Ramadi on Fox News' 'America's Newsroom'


May 26, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1480580
New Home Sales Rebound

Last month, new home sales fell a very steep 11.4 percent to a 481,000 annual rate. Given the volatile nature of this series one might have expected a bounce in May and sure enough we got one, albeit not enough to wipe out April's dismal ...


May 26, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1480579
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate

Fed manufacturing surveys remain weak at best. Today the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index fell to negative 20.8, well below the bottom end of any Bloomberg Estimate.




Contraction in ...


May 26, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1480578

From the inbox:

Dear John,

On behalf of PLOS and the PLOS ONE editorial team, I would like to thank you for participating in the peer review process this past year at PLOS ONE. We very much appreciate your valuable input in 2014. We know there are many claims ...


May 26, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1480577

The pending 67% minimum wage hike in LA (from $9 to $15 per hour by 2020), which is the same as a $6 per hour tax (or $12,480 annual tax per full-time employee), already has business owners planning to leave, see this letter in today’s New York Times:

Effects of ...


May 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1480516
Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve could take a slower approach to raising interest rates if weaker-than-expected growth overseas ...


May 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1480515

David Cay Johnston

Free-market dogma has jacked up our electricity bills: A new analysis shows that people pay 35 percent morefor electricity in states that abandoned traditional regulation of monopoly utilities in the 1990s compared with states that stuck with it. ....

You might think that the higher ...


May 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1480514
The new home sales report for April was above expectations at 517 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 517,000 Annual Rate in April

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through April, were 179,000, ...


May 26, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1480512
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May 26, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1480507
Cryptic enough? Well let me do some unpacking and straight out asserting and then turn this over to AB readers and commenters. EITC is the Earned Income Tax Credit. Its open premise is that work should be rewarded. Its more hidden premise is that this reward should come as a ...


May 26, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1480505

It seems likely that a key element of the Democratic economic agenda going forward — and a key part of agenda of the party’s presidential nominee — will be advocacy of “family friendly” polices such as paid parental leave. Here is an example from the Hillary Clinton-friendly Center for American ...


May 26, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1480506

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis enjoys the limelight — and a bit of controversy. At a conference of free-market economists in Athens on Wednesday, he teased the audience with well-informed references and subtle jokes alluding to libertarian intellectual gurus, such as Friedrich von Hayek and Robert Nozick. To watch the ...


May 26, 2015, 11:34 am, 1480503
The Richmond Fed updated its "bailout barometer," at left.Post hereand longer report here. (WSJ coverage here)

I found the numbers and the table from the longer ...


May 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1480441

TALLINN, Estonia—Large-scale bond purchases by the European Central Bank may spur governments to build up debt without taking needed steps to overhaul their economies, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said Tuesday.

“It is no secret that I did not support the plan to buy government bonds. ...


May 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1480440
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not ...


May 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1480439
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 517 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up by a total of 5 thousand (SA).

"Sales of new single-family houses in April 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted ...


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May 26, 2015, 10:35 am, 1480434

It is easy to mock Senator Marco Rubio, who cashed out $68,241 in IRA retirement funds last September. The GOP presidential hopeful, who made about $230,000 last year, told Fox News he needed the dough to prepare for his campaign, buy a new $3,000 refrigerator, and fix his busted a/c. ...


May 26, 2015, 10:35 am, 1480433

A front page headline in today's print edition of the FT reads: "Malone close to victory in Charter's $55bn battle for Time Warner Cable."

Why use military terms to describe an everyday commercial transaction? When I bought a pint of milk this morning, I didn't consider it ...


May 26, 2015, 10:05 am, 1480430

Nebraska became the 20th state to adopt a law that makes it possible for nurses in a variety of medical fields with most advanced degrees to practice without a doctor’s oversight. Maryland’s governor signed a similar bill into law this month, and eight more states are considering such legislation, according ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480429
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s the abstract of a new NBER working paper on immigration by Gihoon Hong and John McLaren:

Most research on the effects ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480428


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480427
by Joseph Joyce Morality Tales and Capital Flows When the Federal Reserve finally raises its interest rate target, it will be one of the most widely anticipated policy moves since the Fed responded to the global financial crisis. The impact on emerging markets, which have already begun to see reversals ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480426

While the country slept Friday night and into Saturday morning, the U.S. Senate debated and voted on whether to alter substantially the NSA’s bulk telephone meta-data collection program, extend it for a short period, or simply let it die on June 1 when the “sunset” provision governing the relevant section ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480425

Over the past 12 months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved one of the most dramatic image makeovers on the global stage. Once viewed largely through the prism of the 2002 Gujarat riots, Modi now commands attention as the charismatic leader of a nation on the upswing. As President Barack ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480423

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is setting out on a populist course in hopes of securing the Republican nomination for president in 2016. Among other things, he has come out against the next round of free-trade agreements. He also wants to be seen as the GOP defender of middle-class entitlement ...


May 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1480424

Today marks a year since Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s 15th prime minister. By now a small rain forest has been pulped in analysing the government’s first year in office. The overwhelming consensus: Modi deserves an A for foreign policy, but at best a B+ for economic policy.

This ...


May 26, 2015, 9:33 am, 1480421

From the inbox:

Bourbon Feels the Burn of a Barrel Shortage
by: Tripp Mickle
May 12, 2015

TOPICS:Supply and Demand

SUMMARY:Distilleries are navigating a bourbon-barrel shortage, as increased demand for the drink coincided with reduction of logging of the white oak wood. Prices of barrels are up sharply. The shortage ...


May 26, 2015, 9:33 am, 1480420

The world’s most fascinating insects live in the eastern United States. Periodical cicadas spend most of their lives underground, sucking up nutrients from tree and shrub roots. But every 13 or 17 years, they emerge en masse to reproduce. If you are in the right spot (this year, parts of ...


May 26, 2015, 9:33 am, 1480419

If you ask monetary economists whether we should care if a central bank’s capital level falls below zero (even for an extended period of time), most will say no. Pose the same question to central bank governors, and the answer in nearly every case will be yes.

What accounts for this ...


May 26, 2015, 9:04 am, 1480356
In this recent video interview with Food Safety News, legal scholar Timothy Lytton envisions a more constructive role for litigation in the next stages of development in food safety policy.

Lytton, previously the author of Kosher, describes the three main systems in food safety as (1) regulation, ...


May 26, 2015, 9:03 am, 1480355

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 26, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Confronts an Economy Plagued by Mismeasurement Yellen: Fed on Track to ...


May 26, 2015, 8:45 am, 1480354
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May 26, 2015, 8:35 am, 1480353
The US economy is expected to grow at a faster rate in the second quarter vs. Q1, based on a variety of predictions, but the improvement may turn out to be a hollow achievement. Indeed, the hurdle is quite low for beating the near-flat expansion in the first three months ...


May 26, 2015, 8:35 am, 1480352

Congress is in recess this week. The Daily Deduction will return to its regular schedule on Monday, June 1.

Congress delays a highway bill for two more months. Just before leaving town for its Memorial Day recess, and with no funding solution in the tank, Congress extended spending authority until the ...


May 26, 2015, 8:04 am, 1480350
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 166-167 of the 1991 Liberty Fund edition of Bruno Leoni’s brilliant 1961 volume, Freedom and the ...


May 26, 2015, 7:34 am, 1480347

The following are notes for a panel discussion with Andrew Coyne, Tavia Grant, Kristina Partsinevelos, Chris Ragan and Chris Waddell, organized together with Stephen Gordon, at the CEA meetings at Ryerson University on Saturday, May 30th. Program information here. Registration info here. Media info


May 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1480346

May 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1480345

Good question, answered really well by Robert Tracinski.

The point is that the left doesn’t kowtow to Islam because they actually love Islam, but rather because they hate our own culture. They have been steeped in a narrative about how American and Western culture is racist and ...


May 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1480343

Henry I. Miller, Forbes:

Never let a good crisis go to waste, Rahm Emanuel famously said. But what do you doif the “crisis” turns out to be a dud? Easy–invent a new one.

That’s what we’re seeing currently in Washington and Brussels, where government regulators, deprived ...


May 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1480342

The Atlanta Fed's model currently predicts second quarter GDP growth far differently from most forecasters. They predict it will be weak--under 1%. (Recall that they nailed the first quarter.)


May 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1480344

In the Washington Post, no less.

Before you picket, protest, sit-in or safe-space your way out of listening to a conservative commencement speaker this college graduation season, I need to let you in on a secret:

Conservatives give better commencement addresses than liberals.


May 26, 2015, 7:03 am, 1480290
MICHAEL GOTTSCHALK/PHOTOTHEK/GETTY IMAGES

Financial chiefs from the Group of Seven nations will discuss policies to achieve sustainable economic growth and fight potential risks from the present loose monetary policy, ...


May 26, 2015, 7:03 am, 1480289

A top Bank of England official said Tuesday the central bank may soon need to ask banks to maintain thicker cushions of capital.

Martin Taylor, a former banker who sits on the BOE’s Financial Policy Committee, which safeguards financial stability, said the U.K. may be nearing that point in the economic ...


May 26, 2015, 6:44 am, 1480288

Macroeconomics: A European Text, by Michael Burda and Charles Wyplosz, is an excellent example of ‘keeping it real’ by linking economics to real events. But examples in textbooks on a two- or three-year publication cycle become rapidly outdated. Students taking this year’s economics course may not have been reading newspapers ...


May 26, 2015, 6:44 am, 1480285
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May 26, 2015, 6:35 am, 1480284
● US Inflation Closer to Fed’s Goal After Core Prices Advance | Bloomberg ● Yellen says Fed on track for first rate hike this year | USA Today ● German Growth and Confidence Slip | WSJ ● Capital Economics Expects Global Growth To Pick Up In Q2 | RTT ● ...


May 26, 2015, 5:33 am, 1480280

This sounds quite promising.


May 26, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480230

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter. Today, we'll confirm that the expected earnings per share for the S&P 500 throughout 2015 has continued to fall from ...


May 26, 2015, 5:03 am, 1480229

May 26, 2015, 4:05 am, 1480228

That is the new book by Ashlee Vance, and so far it is the book I have enjoyed most this year.  Highly recommended.

Here is a short piece on how Elon Musk created a separate school just for his kids.


May 26, 2015, 2:44 am, 1480191

Introducing a currency in parallel to the euro could help Greece repay its external debt and resume economic activity. This second column in a two-part series evaluates the different options and their effects on aggregate demand and fiscal sustainability. The authors propose a tax credit certificates programme, which they argue ...


May 26, 2015, 2:05 am, 1480189

Chris Giles and Sam Fleming at the FT report:

Output per worker grew last year at its slowest rate since the millennium, with a slowdown evident in almost all regions, underscoring how the problem of lower productivity growth is now taking on global proportions.

The


May 26, 2015, 2:04 am, 1480188
(May 26, 2015 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I don't worry much about what other people think about me. My detractors attribute this to a severe case of Asperger's, but I've got a competing two-part story. Part 1: We live in an evolutionarily novel anonymous society, so most... (0 COMMENTS)


May 26, 2015, 2:04 am, 1480187

As part of the research for Economics in Two Lessons, I’m looking in to the history of some of the ideas I’m talking about, including Pareto optimality, externalities and of course opportunity cost. I’m undecided as to whether I’ll include this material, perhaps as starred (skip if you feel like ...


May 26, 2015, 2:04 am, 1480186

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s profits utterly depend on having their obligations backed by the U.S. Treasury — and thus by taxpayers. Without the Treasury’s effective guarantee, Fannie and Freddie would be unable to remain in business, especially with the capital of approximately zero they have had since 2008.

This is ...


May 26, 2015, 1:24 am, 1480185

Photo Credit: Nic Taylor

There is no getting something for nothing.  There is always a cost involved, even if it is feeling vaguely obligated to listen to the person giving you a gift.  We are social creatures, and ...


May 26, 2015, 1:03 am, 1480166
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May 26, 2015, 1:03 am, 1480165
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