Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

- Recent Entries

May 25, 2016, 12:44 am, 1639542

May 25, 2016, 12:34 am, 1639541
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssHealthInterventionismMonopoly and CompetitionThe Early History of Regulated Health Care

May 25, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639540
Aristotle did. As Philip Kreager reminded me: Historians of economics have for some time treated his [Aristotle's] writings as formative, even though relevant passages in the Politics and Ethics amount to only a few pages. Wait. There’s more: In the Politics, however, population is a recurring topic, extensively discussed and ...

May 24, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1639534
President Barack Obama will make a return to Elkhart, Ind., a small city in northern Indiana where he made his first trip as president in 2009.

May 24, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1639533

Another draft extract from my book-in-progress, Economics in Two Lessons. It’s the last part of the section on “predistribution”, dealing with Intellectual Property. Next up, “redistribution” through taxation and public expenditure.

As always, encouragement is welcome, constructive criticism even more so.

The system of property rights in market societies is ...

May 24, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1639532
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1639525
• At 7:00 AM ET, he Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March 2016. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1639521

Chairman Corker, Ranking Member Cardin, members of the committee, thank you for this opportunity to testify before the committee on “U.S.-India Relations: Balancing Progress and Managing Expectations.” I am Sadanand Dhume, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan public policy research organization based in Washington, DC. ...

May 24, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1639520
The BBC has published a dramatic piece reporting that some of Exxon's shareholders are making a major stand that this fossil fuel intensive huge company must change its game and diversify away from oil. The NY Times has published a similar front page article. Such shareholder ...

May 24, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1639502

What’s the proper way to tax personal saving and investment? It’s a great question, and under current tax law, we have lots of different answers! Specifically, we have four of them, which I’ll get to in a moment. But first let’s talk a little about what saving and investment ...

May 24, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1639501

May 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1639500
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssHow the TSA Kills Hundreds of People Every Year

May 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1639499

China’s stated policy goal is to rebalance away from both investment and exports.

That is not all that easy to do.

After the crisis, China rebalanced away from exports (exports fell significantly as a share of China’s GDP, and China’s manufacturing trade surplus also fell relative to China’s GDP) mostly by juicing ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639497
No wait don’t go bear with me. The irritating messages have headers such as 3399949424 @EricTrump: Really p 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump and 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump So how do Eric and Donald Trump (who appear to be so poor that they are sharing a cell phone) know that an Italian resident TIM customer ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639496
It is sometimes argued that Conservatives and Republicans are anti science. There is often a quest for Ballance (or a so’s your mother reply from conservatives). I recall reading about liberal anti vaxxers (sorry I don’t recall actual URLs). Chris Mooney noted that there is no detectable association of vaccine ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639495

School choice not only allows children to attend the schools best suited to their specific needs, but it can also help empower parents to be thoughtful advocates for their child’s education. And yet, there is very little dialogue on how school choice laws actually treat parents.

In his new report, AEI ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639493

Good afternoon, Chairman Castro, Vice-Chairwoman Timmons-Goodson, and distinguished members of the Commission. It is an honor to be here to share with you what the research says about the role and effects of money on outcomes.

My name is Gerard Robinson, and I am a resident fellow at the American Enterprise ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639494

Hillary Clinton recently suggested that she would put her husband “in charge of revitalizing the economy, because, you know, he knows how to do it.” When the May CBS News/New York Times poll asked registered voters about their views of the former president, 45 percent had a favorable opinion and ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639492

In AEI’s June issue of Political Report, Senior Fellow Karlyn Bowman, along with researchers Heather Sims and Eleanor O’Neill, distill what voters in Democratic and Republican contests told exit pollsters during the 2016 primary and caucus season — providing the most comprehensive examination available of 2016 entrance and exit polls. ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639491

As the country wends its way toward summer conventions, most Republican registered voters see their party as divided. In the May CBS News/New York Times poll of registered voters, only 14 percent of Republicans said their party was united, while 84 percent described it as divided. Democrats were divided: 50 percent said ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639457

Chris Dillow:

Prospect theory & populism: Does prospect theory help explain support for Brexit in the UK and for Donald Trump in the US?

The bit of the theory I have in mind is the prediction that people are risk-seeking when they are losing, because they gamble to get ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639456
As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.

From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2016 was $321,100; the average sales price was $379,800."

May 24, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639455

Bubba Smith, the former N.F.L. star who went on to have a successful career as an actor, is the latest former pro football player to be diagnosed as having a degenerative brain disease linked to repeated concussions:

Bubba Smith, the All-Pro defensive end in the N.F.L. who went on ...

May 24, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639454
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssBrexit: The Movie Makes the Economic Case Against The EU

May 24, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639452

The phrase “it’s not rocket science” is meant to convey the fact that whatever one is talking about, or dealing with, is really not all that complicated in comparison. As old videos of test rockets blowing up on launch or spinning out of control shortly after launch seemed to attest ...

May 24, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639453

For decades, Republican presidential candidates have enjoyed a distinct advantage when it comes to foreign and national security policy.  In 2012, President Obama briefly closed the foreign policy gap with Mitt Romney before his election by promising that the “tide of war” had receded and that he would focus ...

May 24, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1639418
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingWhy Most of Chicago's Banks Failed during the Great Depression: The Puzzle Resolved

May 24, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639410

May 24, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1639409

For women, most of it, at least according to Wong and Penner:

This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to (1) replicate research that documents a positive association between physical attractiveness and income; (2) examine whether the returns to attractiveness ...

May 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1639408
(May 24, 2016 03:50 PM, by David Henderson) One of my favorite writers and thinkers on the Cato blog, Cato at Liberty, is Jim Harper. He posted yesterday on voting, titling his piece "Don't Not Vote." He makes some good points but goes too far. The issue for... (0 COMMENTS)

May 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1639407

Editor’s Note: This article is part of a ChinaFile Conversation on the impact of growing debt on China’s economy. The full conversation can be found here.

In the first quarter of 2016, Chinese debt rose to 237 percent of GDP—a level comparable to that of the U.S. or the Eurozone and ...

May 24, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1639404
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639373

[wsj-responsive-image P="//
omen0_P_20160524110338.jpg" J="//
omen0_J_20160524110338.jpg" M="//
omen0_M_20160524110338.jpg" caption="" credit="TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

Last week, we wrote about how women in elite occupations often see a bigger pay discrepancy from male coworkers than women working in other professions. We then asked readers to share their experiences with the gender wage gap. More than ...

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639371
The new home sales report for April was very strong at 619,000on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and combined salesfor January, February and March were revised up by 44 thousand SAAR.

This was the highest sales rate since January 2008.

Sales were up 23.8% year-over-year (YoY) ...

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639372
The Q1 report was released today:Household Debt and Credit Report.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Steps Up, Delinquencies Drop

Household indebtedness continued to advance during the first three months of 2016 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household ...

May 24, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1639370

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639368

The proposed Puerto Rican Restructuring Bill is to be welcomed as a first step towards resolving the island’s chronic debt problem and towards improving its economic and financial management. However, it is to be regretted that the bill seems to lack any vision as to how to extricate the island ...

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639367

A longer version of this blog post can be found on

Reformist politician Minoo Khaleghi had already won a seat in Iran’s February 26 parliamentary elections when the Guardian Council, a twelve-member body constitutionally charged with managing the country’s elections, disqualified her after alleged photographs of Khaleghi without ...

May 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639366

The new overtime rule announced by President Obama last week extends overtime pay protections to more than 4 million workers by raising the salary threshold to $47,476. The intent of the rule is to boost wages for low- and middle-income workers by requiring that employers compensate employees for every additional ...

May 24, 2016, 11:33 am, 1639364

…. is from Thomas Sowell’s latest column “Commencement Season“:

Two themes seem to dominate Commencement speeches. One is shameless self-advertising by people in government, or in related organizations supported by the taxpayers or donors, saying how nobler it is to be in “public service” than working in business or other ...

May 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639333

Today is May 24, the date in 1937 when the Supreme Court upheld Social Security (and Social Security and unemployment insurance payroll taxes) in Helvering v. Davis and Steward Machine Co. v. Davis. In Helvering, the Court held 7 to 2 that Congress could spend to promote the general welfare independently ...

May 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639332
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 619 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up by a total of 44 thousand (SAAR).

"Sales of new single-family houses in April 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted ...

May 24, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639331

May 24, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639330

May 24, 2016, 10:35 am, 1639329

Does prospect theory help explain support for Brexit in the UK and for Donald Trump in the US?

The bit of the theory I have in mind is the prediction that people are risk-seeking when they are losing, because they gamble to get even. This explains ...

May 24, 2016, 10:34 am, 1639328
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssTaxes and SpendingWorld HistoryFiscal TheoryThe War on Cash is Ancient

May 24, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639321

Parents are a child’s first educator. At the same time, after a child reaches a certain age, most parents rely on the state for their child’s education. The tension of rights and responsibilities between parents and the state has a long tradition in Western history. If government is responsible ...

May 24, 2016, 10:04 am, 1639320

Last year, the Attorney General of New York subpoenaed Exxon to hand over records related to climate change research and advocacy. The aim is to silence opponents of expensive and sometimes counterproductive actions against greenhouse gas emissions. For climate militants, there is no legitimate debate on climate change science ...

May 24, 2016, 9:34 am, 1639315

It is of course useful from time to time to take a look at the longer-term picture when it comes to health spending especially given that there is a slowdown in health expenditure growth. Figure 1 plots per capita total health expenditure in US PPP dollars from 1960 to 2014 ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639284

Many Americans are struggling under huge monthly student-debt bills. But they are a sizeable minority, not the norm.

That’s the conclusion of research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The typical borrower between ages 20 and 30 pays $203 a month toward student debt. Three-quarters of borrowers pay no ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639283
From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services’ First Look at April Mortgage Data: Lowest Number of Foreclosure Starts in 10 Years; Prepay Activity Falls Despite Low Rates

• At 58,700, April 2016 saw the lowest number of foreclosure starts since April 2006

• National delinquency rate ...

May 24, 2016, 8:44 am, 1639282

May 24, 2016, 8:35 am, 1639281

The Federal Reserve continued to press ahead yesterday with its public relations effort of talking up the possibility of a rate hike, perhaps as early as next month. The latest addition to the hawkish-chattering club is the Philly Fed’s Pat Harker, who advised on Monday that “I can easily ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639277
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 427 of H.L. Mencken’s indispensable 1949 collection, A Mencken Chrestomathy; specifically, it’s from Mencken’s ...

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639276

May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639275
Yves Smith at NC: The SEC showed its true colors yet again at a panel at Stanford Law School at the end of March, although not as dramatically as last year. In last spring’s SEC panel at Stanford, the then head of examinations, Andrew Bowden, made such fawning remarks about ...

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639273

Last week was fifty years since Dylan's Manchester show in which he famously replied to a heckler and Changed Music Forever: "I don't believe you. You're a liar! . . . Play it fuckin' loud!"

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639272

"Tiny" as in the population is about 1.3 million.

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639271

You might want to check it out:

The point of this blog is to watch, and analyze the death of the progressive model using the lens of classical liberalism. . . .

Maddog is trained as a pipe fitter, welder, a paper maker, wilderness medical technician, equipment ...

May 24, 2016, 7:34 am, 1639270

I blame the editors. Somebody is allowingpieces to mention things contraryto the Approved Narrative.

Example #1:

She [Tara Houska, a tribal lawyer and a member of the Couchiching First Nation in Canada]also said that those who clung to family lore — of, say, being part Cherokee on their ...

May 24, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639243

● Markit PMI shows US manufacturing stagnant in May | MarketWatch
● Philly Fed’s Harker: June Hike Appropriate With Stronger Economy | MNI
● Progress toward full employment has stalled | FedWatch
● When Elections Aren’t About the Economy | NY Times
● Billions in US ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 am, 1639242

We still do not know who or what is responsible for the crash of EgyptAir Flight 804, but we know this much for certain: The terrorist danger is growing, and it won’t be contained to the Mediterranean.

Responding to criticism of President Obama’s handling of terrorism, White House press secretary Josh ...

May 24, 2016, 6:04 am, 1639241

Key Points

By 2015, at least 45 states and the District of Columbia had enacted 102 choice laws, including 43 charter school laws, 25 voucher laws, 20 tax-credit laws, 9 tax-deduction laws, and 5 Education Savings Account (ESA) laws. Regrettably, existing choice laws demonstrate that parental rights and responsibilities in education ...

May 24, 2016, 5:34 am, 1639238

Better pay attention, Cali.

May 24, 2016, 5:23 am, 1639237

Hysteresis is a concept which states that history affects the value of a current issue. In economics, hysteresis states that historical rates of unemployment are likely to influence the current and future rates of unemployment.

If there is a recession and rise in cyclical unemployment, this temporary unemployment can affect ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639204

On Monday, 16 May 2016, the U.S. Treasury updated its accounting of the national origins of the major foreign holders of debt issued by the U.S. government through the end of March 2016, the halfway point of the federal government's fiscal year. With ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639203

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639202

Tim Duy:

Curious, by Tim Duy: I find the Fed's current obsession with raising interest rates curious to say the least. The basic argument for rate hikes is that the economy, and in particular the labor market, sustained its momentum in the last two quarters better than market participants ...

May 24, 2016, 4:04 am, 1639201

The subtitle of that new paper is “Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts,” here is the abstract:

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a ...

May 24, 2016, 2:05 am, 1639195

So say Hummel, Pfaff, and Rost, in a recent paper:

In view of the numerous accounting and corporate scandals associated with various forms of moral misconduct and the recent financial crisis, economics and business programs are often accused of actively contributing to the amoral decision making of their graduates. ...

May 24, 2016, 12:44 am, 1639191

May 24, 2016, 12:34 am, 1639190
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssClinton Adviser, Nobel Prize Winning Economist Endorsed Venezuelan Socialism

May 24, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639186
(May 23, 2016 10:28 PM, by Emily Skarbek) My sense is that most of the coverage of Brexit in the US comes down in favour of remaining in the EU. That is the case put forward in Dalibor Rohac's new book. And for onlookers, I think it is... (0 COMMENTS)