Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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- Recent Entries


November 26, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1378550
Multiplier? What multiplier?Wall Street Journal, November 26 2014:

The economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than ...


November 26, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1378549
I happen to like the sun. By definition, the earth would not even be a planet without the sun. No one on earth would be alive without free sunshine.

I happen to like Google. I could survive without Google, but like the sun, much of what Google provides is ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378501

The Washington Post’s Wonkblog yesterday got to write a dramatic lede: “This is what oligarchy looks like.” The data described in the blog post are, in fact, fairly dramatic, but Wonkblog does not do a good job describing the data.

The problem starts with the headline: “The top 400 ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378500

FRANKFURT – The vice president of Germany’s central bank has warned that banks’ willingness to fully finance house purchases in the country’s big cities could ultimately hit their profits significantly, should urban real estate prices start to slide.

Bundesbank deputy Claudia Buch also said, however, that at the moment rising house ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378495

U.S. corporations saw profits rise for three straight quarters and are up 3.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The estimate for corporate profits after tax, without inventory ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378493

The New York Fed’s latest report on household debt shows that the so-called deleveraging process, by which households reduced their debt burdens following the recession, has ended after around five ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378496

GDP registered its best six-month stretch since 2003 in the period ending Sept. 30, Commerce Department data out Tuesday showed.

The resurgent growth alongside steady labor market improvements this year suggest the economy ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378497

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, November 25, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Schlesinger’s Take: The Internal, External Limits Facing BOJ Gov. Kuroda BOJ Governor Defends Easing Measures


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378499
The OECD concludes that Japan has been in a stagnation trap for quite some time. Bloomberg News

The eurozone economy may have fallen into “a persistent ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378498
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney  told British lawmakers that the Monetary Policy Committee has not discussed the need for further stimulus despite weak inflation. Associated ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378492
Google snapped up Boston Dynamics, which builds an experimental robot funded in part by the U.S. Marine Corps. that can carry 400 pounds of gear over 20 miles of ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378494
A home for sale earlier this year in Miami, where home prices are up 10.3% over September last year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Getty Images

U.S. home prices ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378487

U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378486
 Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout..

Ireland’s central bank ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378488

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378489
South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378485

Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts.

So far, there’s no reason to believe this winter’s storms will wreak exceptional havoc on the data. ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378490

New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1378491

The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product to 3.9% from the advance reading of 3.5%.

The upgrade was a surprise. Indeed, none of the 30 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected GDP to be revised up. The rate ...


November 26, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1378484
A


November 26, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1378483

It is with great sadness that I pass along the news that Jean Braucher passed away yesterday. Jean was my co-author, my co-blogger, and my friend. This news came suddenly this morning for all but her closest family and friends who were aware of her illness. 

The official ...


November 26, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1378480




November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378419

While over 90 percent of all firms have between 0 and 20 employees, these firms only employ 19.2 percent of all private sector workers. These small firms can be anything from coffee shops to small car dealerships and are organized as both pass-through businesses and C corporations.

On the other ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378418

At MoneyWatch:

Some Good News for the Unemployed: There has been considerable discussion of the “hollowing out” of middle class jobs in recent years, a trend that started before the Great Recession. But where do those who have lost their jobs go? Do they end up with low paying ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378416

[Travel day, so no more until later.]

Paul Krugman:

Keynes Is Slowly Winning: Back in 2010, I had a revelation about just how bad economic policy was about to get; I read the OECD Economic Outlook, which called not just for fiscal austerity but for interest rate hikes ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378417

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Understanding George Osborne: Yesterday I spoke at the Resolution Foundation’s launch of their analysis of the UK political parties’ fiscal plans post 2015. I believe this analysis shows two things very clearly. First, there is potentially a large gap between the amount of austerity planned ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1378415
The new home sales report for October was below expectations at 458 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

Also, sales for the previous three months (July, August and September), were revised down.

Sales this year are significantly below expectations, however, based on the ...


November 26, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1378414
A


November 26, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1378413

IT IS tempting for economists to couch Europe’s great debates—over immigration, burden-sharing, competitiveness—in technocratic terms. What effect do new arrivals have on the wages of the local population? How can debts be mutualised without giving debtor countries an incentive to spend wildly? But cold logic fails to capture the emotional ...


November 26, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1378409

The most contentious may be one put forward by a group called Ecopop, which would limit immigration to 0.2 per cent of the resident population. That has alarmed businesses, who worry it would make it harder to hire skilled staff and sour relations with the EU, which is Switzerland’s largest ...


November 26, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1378408
(November 26, 2014 01:04 PM, by David Henderson) The problem starts with the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal agency that sets prices for the medical services of Medicare patients. CMS is really a giant central-planning agency. It sets hundreds of thousands of prices. What... (0 COMMENTS)


November 26, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1378407
Dan here…this piece is originally published at Oxford University Press by Angry Bear Edward Lambert. by Edward Lambert Thanksgiving and the economics of sharing For this American, my favorite holiday has always been Thanksgiving. Why? I have an image in my mind of Native Americans and colonists meeting and sharing ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378403

“Air quality has improved dramatically over the past decades, and air quality will continue to improve under the existing standards,” said Howard Feldman, director of regulatory affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for the oil industry. “The current review of health studies has ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378402
In 1951, a "High Pop Automatic Toaster" was priced at $21 dollars (nominal $). In 2014, Kohl's is selling a better $5 (nominal $) toaster. I realize that this is a simplified consumer price index but this 76% reduction in price is the tip of the iceberg. ...


November 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1378401

This post has been an annual tradition at CD now for several years:

Like in previous years, most of you probably didn’t call your local supermarket ahead of time and order a Thanksgiving turkey this year. Why not? Because you automatically assumed that a turkey would be there when you showed ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378339

In the debate over the tax extenders, the 55 or so tax provisions that need to be extended year after year, it’s easy to just throw up your hands and say: “let’s just get rid of them all- they are just a bunch of wasteful loopholes that benefit the ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378338

U.S. inflation remained below the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target for the 30th consecutive month in October. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378337
 Jean Claude Trichet informed Brian Lenihan that the ECB couldn’t authorize further loans to the Irish banks unless the government sought an international bailout..

Ireland’s central bank ...


November 26, 2014, 11:03 am, 1378336
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 458 thousand.

September sales were revised down from 467 thousand to455 thousand, and August sales were revised down from 466 thousand to453 thousand.

"Sales of new single-family houses in ...


November 26, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378335
A


November 26, 2014, 10:44 am, 1378334
A


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378333
Personal income and spending posted modest gains in today’s October update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), albeit at monthly rates (+0.2% on both counts) that fell short of the crowd’s expectations. The usual suspects will fuss over the monthly comparisons and try to spin context out of ...


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378332

The FT reports that George Osborne wants to make unicorn farming compulsory:

The new fiscal mandate is expected to enshrine in law one area of common ground between the Tories and Lib Dems: that the cyclically adjusted current deficit should be eliminated by 2017-18.

This is ...


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378331
A


November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378330
Teaser:


November 26, 2014, 10:05 am, 1378327

November 26, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378326
(November 26, 2014 09:31 AM, by Bryan Caplan) John Cochrane's grumpy about the state of behavioral political economy. From his review of Schnellenbach and Schubert's recent literature review:I came away horribly disappointed. Not with the paper, but with the state of the literature that the authors ably summarize.... (0 COMMENTS)


November 26, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378325
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 44-45 of my colleague Richard Wagner’s deeply insightful 1996 monograph, Economic Policy in a Liberal Democracy:

Suppose medical care is financed through state budgets, or, equivalently, through private insurance that is constrained by government to charge common pricing.  Once this happens, a new network of ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378263

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378262
The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 291,000 to 292,000. The 4-week moving average was 294,000, an ...


November 26, 2014, 9:03 am, 1378261
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October:

Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.3 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove ...


November 26, 2014, 8:44 am, 1378260
A


November 26, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378259
Clarity is a virtue when it comes to the business cycle. It’s also unusual. The US is an exception, or at least it has been, according to Scott Sumner, an economist at Bentley University and a prolific blogger on macro matters. “The US has a really weird economy,” he writes. ...


November 26, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378258

With all the news about Ferguson and other commitments, I missed the news that economic growth in the 3rd Quarter had been revised significantly upward to 3.9% in the latest report from the Department of Commerce:

The nation’s economic output grew at an even faster rate during July, August ...


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378253

Chester Finn reviews where we're at. Short take: a lot done, a lot more to do.


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378255

Amazing and wonderful.

Then out of nowhere, a white Chevrolet van hit them at 75mph, an absurd speed for the neighbourhood. Marcy was killed outright and Lewis was so thoroughly broken that the paramedic on the scene took him for dead. The Chevrolet driver, meanwhile, fled the ...


November 26, 2014, 7:33 am, 1378254

George Will:

It is as remarkable as it is repulsive, the ingenuity with which the Obama administration uses the regulatory state’s intricacies to advance progressivism’s project of breaking nongovernmental institutions to government’s saddle. Eager to sacrifice low-income children to please teachers unions, theJustice Department wantsto ...


November 26, 2014, 6:34 am, 1378192
● US GDP grows at better-than-expected 3.9% pace in third quarter | LA Times ● UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.7% for Q3 | Marketwatch ● Bank of England will raise rates despite euro gloom, says Mark Carney | Telegraph ● Saudis signal no push for oil cut as market ...


November 26, 2014, 5:33 am, 1378190

I read this and I just had to buy a bag. (They are awfully good.)


November 26, 2014, 5:33 am, 1378189



(p. A1) EASTON, N.Y. -- Something strange is happening at farms in upstate New York. The cows are milking themselves.

Desperate for reliable labor and buoyed by soaring prices, dairy operations across the state are charging into a brave new world of udder care: robotic milkers, which feed ...


November 26, 2014, 5:03 am, 1378127

November 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1378126

To reduce the risk of international commerce banks offer specific trade finance products, the most prominent being letters of credit. This column employs US banking data to show that reductions in the supply of such trade finance have considerable effects on the levels and patterns of exports, especially to small ...


November 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1378125

The importance of world shocks for the UK economy has been demonstrated by the events since 2007. This column suggests that world shocks are likely to have driven around two-thirds of the shortfall in output since 2007. Trade linkages are an important channel for the transmission of world shocks to ...


November 26, 2014, 3:03 am, 1378078

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table.

We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year, ...


November 26, 2014, 2:05 am, 1378077

We are running a contest for MRU, and the goal is to figure out how economists ought to be put on cereal boxes.  Imagine that a famous economist would in fact be represented by a cereal and a cereal box.  For example there would be:

Thomas Piketty, ...


November 26, 2014, 2:05 am, 1378076

If you are going to ask “when will China clean up its air?”, you might wish to look at South Korea, a country with a broadly similar industrial profile, although of course Korea is much further along in terms of economic development.

As of 2002, South Korea was ranked ...


November 26, 2014, 1:03 am, 1378037

There is a lot of discussion of how economic slack is fast disappearing, and I expect a lot of push on this view, given continued rapid growth in GDP as reported in today’s second release for 2014Q3. This view seems counter to (1) the CBO estimate of potential GDP and ...


November 26, 2014, 12:04 am, 1378035
(Don Boudreaux)

In my latest column for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review I ponder various kinds and degrees of insignificance of individual human choices and actions.

I wrote this column before completing my reading of Russ’s brilliant new book, How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.  While finishing my reading of Russ’s book ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378005
View interactive maps

Sometimes a skewed view offers greater clarity.

The most recent state-by-state unemployment figures, released Friday, show positive news in many states. The


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378004
Port Dampier operations in Western Australia’s Pilbara region Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

China’s surprise interest rate cut, coupled with a free-trade deal between Canberra ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378003
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda answers questions during a news conference at the central bank’s headquarters in Tokyo on Nov. 19. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The brash ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378006
Details matter in the revised reading of how the economy performed in the third quarter, which the Commerce Department releases Tuesday. Here are five things to watch.


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378009

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, November 24, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights


Hilsenrath’s Take: A PBOC Reporter Points to Threats for World #2 Economy What ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378010

MONDAY

ECB’s Nowotny delivers opening remarks in Vienna at 0745 GMT BOE’s McCafferty remarks published at 1000 GMT ECB’s Coeure speaks in London at 1000 GMT ECB’s Weidmann speaks in Madrid at 1300 GMT Bank of Israel releases a policy statement at 1600 local time

TUESDAY

Bank of Japan releases minutes of its Oct. 31 meeting BOJ’s Kuroda ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378002

FRANKFURT – The vice president of Germany’s central bank has warned that banks’ willingness to fully finance house purchases in the country’s big cities could ultimately hit their profits significantly, should urban real estate prices start to slide.

Bundesbank deputy Claudia Buch also said, however, that at the moment rising house ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378008
Jens Weidmann said monetary policy must be based on higher productivity and policy reforms. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

MADRID—Germany’s central bank president, Jens Weidmann, Monday expressed doubt that a ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378007
Ewald Nowotny, governor of Austria’s central bank, urged the ECB to hold off on more stimulus measures. Bloomberg News

Officials from the European Central Bank’s conservative wing ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378000
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney  told British lawmakers that the Monetary Policy Committee has not discussed the need for further stimulus despite weak inflation. Associated ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1378001
The OECD concludes that Japan has been in a stagnation trap for quite some time. Bloomberg News

The eurozone economy may have fallen into “a persistent ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377993

The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product to 3.9% from the advance reading of 3.5%.

The upgrade was a surprise. Indeed, none of the 30 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected GDP to be revised up. The rate ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377992

New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377995

The New York Fed’s latest report on household debt shows that the so-called deleveraging process, by which households reduced their debt burdens following the recession, has ended after around five ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377994
Google snapped up Boston Dynamics, which builds an experimental robot funded in part by the U.S. Marine Corps. that can carry 400 pounds of gear over 20 miles of ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377996
A home for sale earlier this year in Miami, where home prices are up 10.3% over September last year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Getty Images

U.S. home prices ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377998

GDP registered its best six-month stretch since 2003 in the period ending Sept. 30, Commerce Department data out Tuesday showed.

The resurgent growth alongside steady labor market improvements this year suggest the economy ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377999

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, November 25, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Schlesinger’s Take: The Internal, External Limits Facing BOJ Gov. Kuroda BOJ Governor Defends Easing Measures


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377997

U.S. corporations saw profits rise for three straight quarters and are up 3.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The estimate for corporate profits after tax, without inventory ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1377991
South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost ...


November 25, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1377984

Last year one of my students* was trying to explain why immigrants struggle in the job market. His regressions weren't working, so he switched things round a bit.

Using 2006 Census data, he found that people in Newfoundland are 30 percentage points less likely to be immigrants than people in Ontario. ...


November 25, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1377958
South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics are facing challenges in China from cheaper local rivals who are copying their technology. Samsung, for instance, has lost ...


November 25, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1377957
Earlier the FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today.

Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $38.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up $2.6 billion (7.3 percent) from earnings of $36.1 billion the ...


November 25, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1377955
A


November 25, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1377956
A


November 25, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1377951

Image Source

Whether you’re a lifelong Apple aficionado, a budding entrepreneur, or just a fan of those who can really move a crowd, Steve Jobs’ keynotes have been moving audiences to believe in a useful, connected, and well-designed future ...


November 25, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1377952
(Don Boudreaux)

If someone who knows not the slightest thing about neurosurgery beyond what he infers by pondering his own skull takes a scalpel to a patient’s brain, the patient suffers a gruesome death and the pretend-healer is exposed immediately as a charlatan.  Matters, alas, differ in economics.  Pretend-economists often ...


November 25, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1377950
The cold war took another twist last week when a Senior German Politician Endorsed Russian Takeover of Crimea.

Former state premier Matthias Platzeck, chairman of the German-Russian Forum business lobby and erstwhile Social Democrat (SPD) chief, is the first high-ranking German to say the West should endorse the ...


November 25, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1377949

1. Chart of the Day. Based on new data from the Department of Energy, the US had produced domestically 86.2% of the energy consumed this year through August – that the highest level of energy self-sufficiency for the US since 1986.


2. Photos ...


November 25, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1377908

The most immediate issue in U.S. Federal tax policy today is the issue of the “tax extenders:” orphaned, temporary tax provisions that get their name from the way they are “extended” by Congress on an ad-hoc basis.

They are likely to be used as bargaining chips against other temporary ...


November 25, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1377907

New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace ...


November 25, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1377903
Rents are up 6.5% in San Francisco, and 4.5% in numerous other cities. Is this a leading indicator for a stronger inflation as measured by the CPI.

Please consider the Variant Perception article Higher Rents in the US are a Strong Support for CPI.

Despite the ...


November 25, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1377902

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis released its monthly report today on world trade and world industrial production for the month of September. Here are some of the highlights of that report:

1. World merchandise trade volume (adjusted for price changes) increased by 2.0% in September on a ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377840

MONDAY

ECB’s Nowotny delivers opening remarks in Vienna at 0745 GMT BOE’s McCafferty remarks published at 1000 GMT ECB’s Coeure speaks in London at 1000 GMT ECB’s Weidmann speaks in Madrid at 1300 GMT Bank of Israel releases a policy statement at 1600 local time

TUESDAY

Bank of Japan releases minutes of its Oct. 31 meeting BOJ’s Kuroda ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377834
Port Dampier operations in Western Australia’s Pilbara region Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

China’s surprise interest rate cut, coupled with a free-trade deal between Canberra ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377835
View interactive maps

Sometimes a skewed view offers greater clarity.

The most recent state-by-state unemployment figures, released Friday, show positive news in many states. The


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377833
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda answers questions during a news conference at the central bank’s headquarters in Tokyo on Nov. 19. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The brash ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377832

FRANKFURT – The vice president of Germany’s central bank has warned that banks’ willingness to fully finance house purchases in the country’s big cities could ultimately hit their profits significantly, should urban real estate prices start to slide.

Bundesbank deputy Claudia Buch also said, however, that at the moment rising house ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377839

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, November 24, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights


Hilsenrath’s Take: A PBOC Reporter Points to Threats for World #2 Economy What ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377831
The OECD concludes that Japan has been in a stagnation trap for quite some time. Bloomberg News

The eurozone economy may have fallen into “a persistent ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377838
Jens Weidmann said monetary policy must be based on higher productivity and policy reforms. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

MADRID—Germany’s central bank president, Jens Weidmann, Monday expressed doubt that a ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377837
Ewald Nowotny, governor of Austria’s central bank, urged the ECB to hold off on more stimulus measures. Bloomberg News

Officials from the European Central Bank’s conservative wing ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377836
Details matter in the revised reading of how the economy performed in the third quarter, which the Commerce Department releases Tuesday. Here are five things to watch.


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377828

GDP registered its best six-month stretch since 2003 in the period ending Sept. 30, Commerce Department data out Tuesday showed.

The resurgent growth alongside steady labor market improvements this year suggest the economy ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377830
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney  told British lawmakers that the Monetary Policy Committee has not discussed the need for further stimulus despite weak inflation. Associated ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377823

The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product to 3.9% from the advance reading of 3.5%.

The upgrade was a surprise. Indeed, none of the 30 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected GDP to be revised up. The rate ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377822

New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377825

The New York Fed’s latest report on household debt shows that the so-called deleveraging process, by which households reduced their debt burdens following the recession, has ended after around five ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377824
Google snapped up Boston Dynamics, which builds an experimental robot funded in part by the U.S. Marine Corps. that can carry 400 pounds of gear over 20 miles of ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377829

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, November 25, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Schlesinger’s Take: The Internal, External Limits Facing BOJ Gov. Kuroda BOJ Governor Defends Easing Measures


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377827

U.S. corporations saw profits rise for three straight quarters and are up 3.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The estimate for corporate profits after tax, without inventory ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377826
A home for sale earlier this year in Miami, where home prices are up 10.3% over September last year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Getty Images

U.S. home prices ...


November 25, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1377821
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.28% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.


November 25, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1377820
Josh Bivens: Data released on Tuesday highlight that the economic recovery from the Great Recession, despite having gone on for more than five years, is still very young.


November 25, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1377818
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November 25, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1377813

ACCORDING to new data released today, America's economy grew at a 3.9% annual pace in the third quarter of this year. That was an upward revision from the advance estimate, of 3.5%. It came on the heels of a second quarter in which real output expanded at a 4.6% ...


November 25, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1377812

November 25, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1377811
Teaser:

Most ...


November 25, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1377807

November 25, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1377806
(November 25, 2014 02:32 PM, by Scott Sumner) Izabella Kaminska has a few thoughts on free banking: This week I strayed into the absolutist world of free-banking enthusiasts. Now, it's not like I haven't come across these guys before -- they lurk everywhere -- but this week I... (2 COMMENTS)


November 25, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1377801
Marine Resource Economics
Vol. 29, No. 4, December 2014 Published by: The University of Chicago Press Special Issue: Seafood Markets and Aquaculture Production
Frank Asche and Atle G. Guttormsen, Guest Editors
Introduction Seafood Markets and Aquaculture Production: Special ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377739

Looking to buy season tickets for your favorite college’s football or basketball games? Be prepared to spend more than you bargained for, because the biggest sports powerhouses require large donations in order to secure a season ticket. The benefit for these season ticket holders? The mandatory donations are


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377737

The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product to 3.9% from the advance reading of 3.5%.

The upgrade was a surprise. Indeed, none of the 30 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected GDP to be revised up. The rate ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377738
Google snapped up Boston Dynamics, which builds an experimental robot funded in part by the U.S. Marine Corps. that can carry 400 pounds of gear over 20 miles of ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377736

Miles Corak:

How to think about “think” tanks: It is sometimes said that think tanks are good for democracy; indeed the more of them, the better. If there are ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377735

For those of you interested in Uber, this is from Joshua Gans:

Is Uber really in a fight to the death?: In recent days, since their PR troubles, there has been much discussion as to why Uber seems to be so aggressive. Reasons ranged frombeing inept, to the ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377734

Brad DeLong:

Over at Project Syndicate: Economic Growth and the Information Age: Daily Focus: ...America ... has become a vastly more unequal place since 1979... But the past generation has seen a third industrial revolution, a worthy information-age successor to the first of steam, iron, cotton, and machines and ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1377733
The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases is ongoing. In November 2013, the Comp 20 index was up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY). Now the index is only up 4.9% YoY. This is the smallest YoY increase since October 2012 (the National index was up 10.9% YoY in October ...


November 25, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1377732
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November 25, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1377728

The Bloomberg editorial staff says no:

Videos often lack critical context, and studies have repeatedly shown that jurors can be misled by variables such as a film’s angle or focus, which can unduly sway perceptions of guilt. That cuts both ways: Footage of a protester bumping ...


November 25, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1377729

November 25, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1377727
Well, it is about time for a higher authority to push strongly for higher wages. The Wall Street Journal has an article about the Bank of Japan’s Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Basically, companies need to use their increased profits and reserves to raise labor’s pay. If companies do not raise labor’s ...


November 25, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1377721
Globalisation ebbs and flows. There has been remembrance of the events of a century ago, when a rising tide of globalisation suffered a colossal retreat. Many observers watching the aftermath of the world crash of 2008 feared the same. Suddenly the headlines about the world becoming ‘flatter’ and more interconnected ...


November 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1377659

While there are significantly more pass-through entities than C corporations, corporations still earn the largest portion of total gross receipts. In 2011, corporations earned 62 percent of the $30.9 trillion in total business receipts. Meanwhile, pass-through businesses make up nearly 95 percent of all firms and account for the ...


November 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1377658

The New York Fed’s latest report on household debt shows that the so-called deleveraging process, by which households reduced their debt burdens following the recession, has ended after around five ...


November 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1377657

On Twitter, Jared Bernstein says he is "Correcting the record for those who claim that accounting for taxes & transfers changes the inequality story":

A deeper dive into the weeds of the CBO household income data: ...between 1979 and 2011, inequality measured by the Gini coefficient rose 24% based solely ...


November 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1377656
Here is the Q3 report: Household Debt and Credit Report. From the NY Fed:

Aggregate household debt balances increased slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2014. As of September 30, 2014, total household indebtedness was $11.71 trillion, up by 0.7% from its level in the second quarter of 2014, ...


November 25, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1377655

A large literature shows the importance of firm heterogeneity in determining trade patterns. This column discusses policy implementation issues related to the ‘new new trade theory’. The nature of an export good – be it consumption or production oriented – influences the importance of firm productivity in the export decision. ...


November 25, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1377654

The share of compensation to labour in gross value added has declined in recent decades for most countries and industries around the world. This column argues that the share of compensation to labour in net value added is a more important proxy for inequality, and questions the extent to which ...


November 25, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1377653
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November 25, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1377649

Oil prices are dropping…fast. This may be good news for drivers but not so good for a handful of states that use energy tax revenue to help fund their budgets. It may be especially challenging for states that rely on taxes from production of shale oil that uses methods that ...


November 25, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1377646
(November 25, 2014 10:15 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Argentina officially has near-open borders. At least on paper, you only need an employer or family member to sponsor you. The country isn't as quite First World, but with per-capita GDP around $15,000, Argentina would be a huge step up... (0 COMMENTS)


November 25, 2014, 11:33 am, 1377644
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

The New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the third quarter of 2014 today. Balances continued to rise slightly, with an overall increase of $78 billion. The aggregate household debt ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1377582

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an average 4.25% pace over the second and third quarters this year, the best two consecutive quarters since 2003′s third and fourth quarters came in at 5.85%.

The resurgent growth alongside steady labor market improvements ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1377581

U.S. corporations saw profits rise for three straight quarters and are up 3.8% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

The estimate for corporate profits after tax, without inventory ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1377580
A home for sale earlier this year in Miami, where home prices are up 10.3% over September last year, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Getty Images

U.S. home prices ...


November 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1377579
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not ...


November 25, 2014, 10:44 am, 1377578
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November 25, 2014, 10:34 am, 1377577
US personal consumption spending for October is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update (Nov. 26), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a moderate rebound in growth relative to September’s 0.2% decline. Compared with a trio of ...


November 25, 2014, 10:34 am, 1377576

"The lower strata of the middle class" says Rick "sink gradually into the proletariat." Actually, that's not Rick. It's some 19th century beardy guy. But Rick says much the same when he says that "being middle-class just ain’t what it used to be." He's ...


November 25, 2014, 10:04 am, 1377575
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Wall Street Journal:

The subheading describing Alan Blinder’s essay “The Unsettling Mystery of Productivity” (Nov. 25) reads “Since 2010 U.S. productivity has grown at a miserable rate.  And no one, not even the Fed, seems to understand why.”

Here’s a potential explanation: regime uncertainty.  Pioneered ...


November 25, 2014, 9:33 am, 1377572

|Peter Boettke|

Russ Roberts has a new book out --How Can Adam Smith Change Your Life -- and on a recent EconTalk episode he sat down with Vernon Smith to discuss the ideas of Adam Smith. Back in 1997, Vernon Smith delivered a wonderful distinguished ...


November 25, 2014, 9:23 am, 1377571

Readers Question: What does the Government spend its money on?

The government spends money for a variety of reasons:

Reduce inequality (welfare payments like unemployment benefit). Provide public goods (fire, police, national defence) Provide important public services like education and health (merit goods) Debt interest payments. Transport Military ...