Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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August 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1668038

August 27, 2016, 4:34 am, 1668037
A A Tags Home | Feed | Blog.rssLegal SystemThe Police StatePolitical TheoryAudio: Tom Woods and Ryan McMaken on Policing and Abolishing the FBI

August 27, 2016, 2:34 am, 1668033
A A Tags Home | Feed | Blog.rssEducationHealthPolitical TheoryWhy Do Americans Have Such High Incomes and So Little Savings? ...

August 27, 2016, 2:05 am, 1668032

Think tank X decides to expand its policy output on urban economics, so it hires some new scholars in the area.  That means fewer people teaching urban economics in academia, or maybe fewer people driving Uber.

It also means more computers in the think tank sector and fewer computers elsewhere.

Or ...

August 27, 2016, 1:33 am, 1668031
I have always greatly admired the work of Davis and Haltiwanger on gross employment flows.   Dora Costa and I have some new work up and going on Federal and local government employment dynamics.  Take a look at our new figure below.  This figure is my homage to Davis ...

August 27, 2016, 12:34 am, 1668029
Tags A A Big GovernmentHealthHome | Feed | Blog.rssThe Week in Review: August 27, 2016Interventionism 0 Views

August 26, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1668023
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2016.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2016. During the month, the list declined ...

August 26, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1668022

When Hirohito, Japan’s Emperor for 63 years, died on January 7, 1989, his youngest brother, the then 73-year old Prince Mikasa, may have been the only person alive who had seen and participated in the enthronement rites for a new monarch. Over the next two years, until December 1990, the ...

August 26, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1668021

As part of the “rebalance” to Asia, the United States has initiated a number of promising maritime security assistance programs to aid overmatched Southeast Asian partners in resisting China’s maritime assertiveness. Just last month, the U.S. Coast Guard transferred the USCG Boutwell, a decommissioned Hamilton-class cutter, to the ...

August 26, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1668020

August 26, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1668009
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 166 of Stephen Marglin’s 2008 book, The Dismal Science; this book is deeply flawed, ...

August 26, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1668007

August 26, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1668006

…. is from Ludwig von Mises, writing in his 1922 book Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis:

In fact, Socialism is not in the least what it pretends to be. It is not the pioneer of a better and finer world, but the spoiler of what thousands of years ...

August 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1667986

Twenty years ago, Janet Yellen was the unorthodox one. As a governor under then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, she was one of the first Fed officials to challenge central banking consensus that the right inflation rate is zero, arguing instead for 2%.

Today, 2% is orthodoxy. The Fed formally committed to ...

August 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1667985
The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Thursday, Sept 1st.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in August, the same as in August 2015.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Weaken in August

A WardsAuto forecast calls for August U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach ...

August 26, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1667948

A fresh batch of the nation’s largest employers is joining a White House effort to lift women’s earnings.

Some 29 companies including General Motors, Apple, Facebook, Target and Visa have signed a White House pledge to conduct an annual gender pay analysis designed to eliminate inequitable compensation.

The companies also agreed ...

August 26, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1667946
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssReality Gets in the Way: The Trouble with Demand Curves

August 26, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1667947
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssBig GovernmentThe Police StateInterventionismThe Eight Marks of Fascist Policy

August 26, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1667944

August 26, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1667943

August 26, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1667937
The Princeton health economist sees a coming death spiral: "If you got a bunch of Princeton undergrads to design a health care system, maybe they would come up with an arrangement like the marketplaces."

August 26, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1667936

Humans are not good for the planet.  But humans are the only ones capable of judging good from far as we know right now.  So if humans didn't exist, would the planet be better off or worse off?  Who would judge? 

I'm confused. 

And all of that is irrelevant to ...

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667904

Today is August 26, the date in 1842 when Congress changed the federal fiscal year start from January 1 to July 1, to give Congress time to deliberate and pass a budget. Congress frequently missed the deadline, so in 1976, the federal fiscal year was changed to October ...

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667903

What is Trump's pivot to crime all about?:

No, Donald Trump, America Isn’t a Hellhole, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...When the Trump campaign started, it was, at least nominally, about economics. Foreigners are stealing your jobs, the candidate declared, both through unfair trade and by coming here as ...

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667902

Robert Shiller:

Today’s Inequality Could Easily Become Tomorrow’s Catastrophe: Economic inequality is already a concern, but it could become a nightmare in the decades ahead, and I fear that we are not well equipped to deal with it. ...

One way to judge the likely outcome is to look at ...

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667901
CR Note: When the New and Existing home sales reports were released this week, I was out of town and didn't post any graphs. Here are a few graphs and comments on the reports.

The new home sales report for July was very strong at 654,000 on a seasonally ...

August 26, 2016, 12:35 pm, 1667900
I was looking at this piece by Mark Thoma on increasing the inflation target. In some discussions of this issue, people seem to have a hard time getting to the core of the argument, but Mark does not. He has a good discussion of the Fisher effect, and his ...

August 26, 2016, 12:05 pm, 1667895

August 26, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1667894
(August 26, 2016 10:38 AM, by Scott Sumner) There is a sudden interest in NGDP targeting in Australia. Here's Greg Jericho, in the Guardian: For the most part economic debate can revolve around the margins, with few bold ideas promulgated. This week however, Senator Nick Xenophon proposed a... (1 COMMENTS)

August 26, 2016, 11:33 am, 1667890

The President is dramatically expanding the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument:

President Obama is set to vastly expand a marine sanctuary northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, White House officials said Thursday, creating the world’s largest protected marine area as he seeks to cement ...

August 26, 2016, 11:33 am, 1667889
The LA Times has written an informative piece describing new real estate construction in downtown LA paid for and constructed by Chinese investor teams.   This piece raises several interesting economic points.  Only in the recent past, "Made in China" was viewed as a signal of low quality.  I ...

August 26, 2016, 11:33 am, 1667888

Take a deep breath, you’re in for a ride. Here is Penn Jillette on libertarianism, taxes, Trump, Clinton, Sanders, Gary Johnson, Prince, Jim Morrison, sex, corporate welfare, drugs and Kurt Cobain. Jillette’s latest book is Presto!: How I Made Over 100 Pounds Disappear ...

August 26, 2016, 11:24 am, 1667887

August 26, 2016, 11:03 am, 1667855
From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future. Excerpt:

Looking ahead, the FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years. Based on ...

August 26, 2016, 10:45 am, 1667854

August 26, 2016, 10:45 am, 1667853

August 26, 2016, 10:34 am, 1667852

August 26, 2016, 10:04 am, 1667851
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to Planet Money reporter Noel King:

Noel King, Reporter
Planet Money

Ms. King:

I enjoyed your

August 26, 2016, 10:04 am, 1667850
“The Original Underclass” I have written on upward mobility several times at AB. This article goes along similar lines of what I have been saying. If you are already upper class, the chances of you dropping down to the lowest level are slim to none. If you are in that ...

August 26, 2016, 9:33 am, 1667847

Abstract from O. Ashton Morgan, John C. Whitehead & William L. Huth, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol 5, No 3, Pages: 283-297:

Traditional revealed and stated preference models consider a typical individual's behavioural responses to various policy-based information treatments. For some cost–benefit applications in which resource managers are concerned with ...

August 26, 2016, 9:33 am, 1667846

Do all industries react like this when their risky product is recognized as such?

It may seem obvious that taxing sugary drinks causes people to drink less of them. But that’s actually controversial.

Now a new study out of Berkeley, Calif., adds to the evidence that our intuition is right.

August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667818
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace in the second quarter than previously thought, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's how.

August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667819

Advocates for workers who care for children before kindergarten have repeatedly groused this mostly female workforce is underpaid. Now, they’re pointing to inequities among the underpaid.

A report being released Friday says African-American female teachers who work full time in the early childhood workforce make 84 cents for every dollar earned ...

August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667817
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 ...

August 26, 2016, 8:44 am, 1667816
Today on the campaign trail and more of the biggest news stories and exclusive features from Washington on politics, policy, financial regulation and defense.

August 26, 2016, 8:35 am, 1667815

Do Stock Market Trading Activities Forecast Recessions?
Ujjal Chatterjee (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, American University of Sharjah)
August 9, 2016
This paper re-examines the existing recession forecasting models with stock market liquidity as an additional forecasting variable. We investigate three distinct aspects of stock market trading activities, namely stock market ...

August 26, 2016, 8:05 am, 1667814

That is from Arlington magazine.  When I clicked on the site, the first five articles were about food.

The post The culture that is Arlington, Virginia appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

August 26, 2016, 8:04 am, 1667813

August 26, 2016, 8:04 am, 1667812
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 283 of my teacher Leland Yeager’s, and of his co-author David Tuerck’s, still-relevant and important 1966 ...

August 26, 2016, 7:34 am, 1667808

Even though he's probably not old enough to have the blues he's singing, he's pretty good.

Link courtesy of Maddog.

August 26, 2016, 7:34 am, 1667807

I like him as teenager. I still like him.

Related: "The Incarnational Art of Van Morrison".

August 26, 2016, 7:03 am, 1667794

Several weeks ago, Political Calculations launched a new series, "Examples of Junk Science", where we are specifically focusing on where flawed analysis and the misuse of data leads to the spread of false or misleading information in the fields of investing, finance and economics. ...

August 26, 2016, 5:34 am, 1667792

I don't anything about the principles of airplane lift, but the wings look small to me.

August 26, 2016, 5:34 am, 1667791

A fine list.

August 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1667781

August 26, 2016, 3:03 am, 1667765

The Kauffman Foundation has just released its report on startup activity. Wisconsin comes in last place in startup density.

Figure 1: Source: Kauffman Foundation.

From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

For the second year ...

August 26, 2016, 2:05 am, 1667764

A recent piece from the excellent Conor Sen has attracted some disputation.  The main claim is that building restrictions aren’t as bad as they might at first seem.  If you keep people out of Manhattan they move to Atlanta, and that produces synergies too:

Here in Atlanta, as ...

August 26, 2016, 1:33 am, 1667763

From Kevin Williamson’s National Review article “The real scandal of EpiPen pricing”:

Public Enemy No. 1 in Democratic circles today is Heather Bresch, CEO of the company that makes the EpiPen, a super-convenient epinephrine auto-injection device used to treat anaphylaxis, a severe allergic reaction that can be caused by ...

August 26, 2016, 12:44 am, 1667744

August 26, 2016, 12:34 am, 1667743
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssThe EntrepreneurTaxes and SpendingEntrepreneurshipInterventionismClinton's Pay-to-Play Is the Natural Consequence of Big Government

August 26, 2016, 12:04 am, 1667740
(August 26, 2016 12:11 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Neuroticism - the tendency to experience negative emotions like anger, fear, and sadness - is a pillar of the Five Factor Model of personality.  Human beings routinely attribute their emotions to external circumstances.  For proximate causes, they're often right.  The... (0 COMMENTS)

August 26, 2016, 12:04 am, 1667739

Singapore, a country that is so proud of its technology culture that it has branded the term “smart nation,” has unplugged some of its government offices from the internet and is working on a plan to unplug the entire public sector by next year. According to a Reuters report, ...