Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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October 24, 2014, 2:05 am, 1356849

It is undeniably true that Amazon has a very large share of the market for e-books. What is not true is that Amazon faces a lack of competition in the digital book market. Barnes & Noble — a company that knows something about books — sells e-books, and does so ...

October 24, 2014, 2:05 am, 1356848

A party can deviate only so far from its core voters:

Cutting federal health and retirement spending has long been at the top of the GOP agenda. But with Republicans in striking distance of winning the Senate, they are suddenly blasting the idea of trimming Social Security benefits.

The latest attack came ...

October 24, 2014, 1:33 am, 1356846

October 24, 2014, 12:34 am, 1356797

Public accommodation laws that prohibit discrimination render property rights moot and create a legal system designed to force agreement with the state's official moral code.

October 23, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1356795

1. Bringing House Calls Back with UberHEALTH — Now there’s an Uber for flu shots. Today the ride-sharing service announced a one-day UberHEALTH pilot program in partnership with Harvard Medical School to deliver free flu shots on-demand. From 10 a.m.- 3 p.m. today Uber drivers delivered a registered ...

October 23, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1356732
The Inland Empire comes full circle ... from the Chris Kirkham at the LA Times: Strong growth is forecast for Inland Empire

[T]he Inland Empire is now the fastest-growing region in Southern California — a trend predicted to continue over the next five years, according to an economic ...

October 23, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1356730
(October 24, 2014 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Using compulsory attendance laws to estimate the causal effect of education on outcomes has been hot in economics for over a decade. But I was always a skeptic. The idea that minimum schooling leaving laws are exogenous is bizarre, yet... (0 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1356729
The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI shows the steepest fall in output prices since global crisis and renewed job losses, in spite of an otherwise stable PMI.

The Eurozone saw a marginal upturn in growth of business activity in October, according to the flash PMI results. The headline ...

October 23, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1356667

The reason for the divergent macroeconomic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic after the Crisis remains a hotly debated subject. The topic was also discussed at the recent Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy workshop. This column summarises the main discussions at the workshop. Other covered topics ...

October 23, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1356666

The reason for the divergent macroeconomic policies on the two sides of the Atlantic after the Crisis remains a hotly debated subject. The topic was also discussed at the recent “Macroeconomic Policy Mix in the Transatlantic Economy” workshop. This column summarises the main discussions at the workshop. Other covered topics ...

October 23, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1356665

October 23, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1356664

October 23, 2014, 8:05 pm, 1356663

Back when I was an economist for a housing agency, I heard about a lot of pricey marketing gimmicks. This is a new one:

Writes Robert Wenzel:

Paging Mark Thornton: The Ultimate Sign of a Chinese Real Estate Bubble?

As part of a marketing campaign by a property developer in ...

October 23, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1356662

There’s been a lot of good economic news recently, here’s a sample below of pretty positive economic reports that were (mostly) released this week.

1. Business Lending. The total volume of commercial and industrial loans at all US commercial banks reached an ...

October 23, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1356601
From the FDIC: FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios for 2015 Stress Testing

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released the economic scenarios that will be used by certain financial institutions with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion for stress tests required under the Dodd-Frank Wall ...

October 23, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1356598

October 23, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1356600

October 23, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1356599

October 23, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1356596

In his recent three-part interview (here, here and here) on the gold standard, Larry White perplexes almost as much as he enlightens.  Let’s critically review  his responses to a few of the interviewer’s questions.

First, when queried about evolution of the discussion of the gold standard among classical ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356592

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of McDonald’s possible automating away its cashiers. Now Mickey Ds denies that’s the intention of their plan to, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, “roll out new technology in some markets to make it easier for customers to order and pay digitally ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356593

There’s an overdue debate going on over the extent of China’s economic troubles. There are many angles but two indicators don’t get enough attention because they’re down in the weeds. Chinese monetary aggregates say the country is in serious trouble.

M1 is called narrow money, in China defined as ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356591

It’s becoming something close to consensus on the left that very high tax rates won’t hurt economic growth. After all, the US did just fine in the 1950s with a 91% top rate, right? Here is a bit of my thinking on that, from a post

October 23, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1356530

According to 2011 Census data, there are approximately 27 million businesses in the United States. Of these 27 million businesses, 90 percent of them are what are called “pass-through” businesses.

In regard to taxes, the most distinct feature of a pass-through business is that its income is taxed once on ...

October 23, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1356529
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

If you’re good with a scalpel and willing to move, Kansas could be the place for you.

Surgeons in the Sunflower State make more—when adjusting for cost ...

October 23, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1356528
A Chinese worker gathers up sheep’s wool after it was processed and bleached at a factory near Zhangzhou, China. Getty Images

A 10% increase in China’s minimum ...

October 23, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1356527

October 23, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1356526

October 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1356523
(October 23, 2014 02:49 PM, by Scott Sumner) The title is my pathetic attempt to imitate Miles Kimball and Noah Smith, who sometimes post on religion. This won't be about religion; it's about monetary policy. Oh wait . . . In the 1970s, US policymakers knew that inflation... (0 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1356522
(October 23, 2014 04:45 PM, by David Henderson) I was on the road from Sunday a.m. to late last night and thus my sparser than usual blogging. I taught classes in Patuxent River, MD on Monday, Norfolk, VA on Tuesday, and Arlington, VA on Wednesday, with lots of... (3 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1356521
This is the average inflation rate expected over the next 5 years… Last data point is for October 21, 2014.

October 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1356515

Looking for growth in Europe? You won't find it in France, but for now you can still find it in Germany (for now).

The Markit Flash France PMI shows French private sector output falls at sharpest rate in eight months.

Key Points

October 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1356514

Dan Rothschild wrote in April (“How Uber and Airbnb Resurrect ‘Dead Capital’“) that the two biggest economic stories of the last decade are: a) the Great Recession and b) the rise of the entrepreneurial sharing economy, or as he describes it, “a category of new businesses that turn ...

October 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1356452

After A Few Comments on QE, Bill McBride ends with:

...My view is QE was not a panacea, but overall QE was a success. I was a frequent critic of the Fed prior to the financial crisis - I think the Fed was almost anti-regulation during the housing bubble, and ...

October 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1356451
A few comments on QE:

• The FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday October 29th, following the FOMC meeting next week.

Most research shows that the primary impact of QE on interest rates is from the size of the Fed ...

October 23, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1356450

October 23, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1356449

Any close observer of the making of tax policy can see it: Lawyers and economists looking at the same issue through entirely different prisms. I’ve been fascinated by how their respective brains work, and why they have so much trouble communicating with one another. It turns out I am not ...

October 23, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1356448

For several years now, the State of New Jersey has been trying to legalize sports betting as part of an effort to revitalize the casino business in Atlantic City, which has suffered in recent years from the ...

October 23, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1356446

October 23, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1356445

Heilman, the expert in Hasidic succession, told me that one reason so many dynastic fights emerged in the past decade is that the grand rabbis are living longer, sometimes too long to have the vigor to conclusively determine whom their successors will be or so long that their increasingly entrenched ...

October 23, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1356444
(October 23, 2014 12:18 PM, by Art Carden) Minecraft has spawned a lot of imitators. One is Survival Craft, which we heard about a few days ago and downloaded. Our oldest has been playing it virtually non-stop for a couple of days, and he prefers it to Minecraft... (1 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1356443
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to a student in New Jersey:

Dear Mr. Sloan:

Thanks for your latest note.  You remember correctly that I agree that Pres. Obama’s “You didn’t build that!” quip referred to infrastructure and other inputs – admittedly produced by others – that each entrepreneur relies on.  You’re mistaken, however, ...

October 23, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1356442
Via Digby comes a couple short films talking about what is money.   They are part of an effort by a group/site called We The Economy that has 20 short films aimed:  to drive awareness and establish a better understanding of the U.S. economy. Told through animation, comedy, musical, non-fiction, and ...

October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356439

In its search for new revenues, Ontario commissioned a government panel to examine how to wring more money out of government assets. In recent days, the panel led by TD Bank CEO Ed Clark has revealed several ideas including selling off Hydro One’s distribution business, restructuring Ontario Power Generation so ...

October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356438
Lack of significant improvement in payments by IBEX companies to suppliers is yet another another sign there isn't much of a recovery in Spain.

La Vanguardia reports Late Payments by Ibex Companies Hits €47 Billion, 169 days (nearly 3 times the legal time limit). Ibex is the ...

October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356437

While Washington keeps talking about income stagnation for the 99%, seem incomes have stopped stagnating — at least for the 80%. From a new Goldman Sachs note:

Perhaps more importantly from the perspective of overall consumption growth, lower- and middle-income wage earners … are sharing fully in the recovery. This is ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356376

October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356375

This was in today's links (which were posted later than usual):

Does Raising the Minimum Wage Hurt Employment? Evidence fromChina, by Prakash Loungani, iMFDirect: ...China accounts for nearly 25 percent of the global labor force...

Our study is the first to use data on minimum wage changes for over 2400 ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356374

Jordi Galí:

The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus, by Jordi Galí, September 2014: Abstract I analyze the effects of an increase in government purchases financed entirely through seignorage, in both a classical and a New Keynesian framework, and compare them with those resulting from a more conventional debt-financed stimulus. ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356373
From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Over ...

October 23, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1356372

October 23, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1356371

October 23, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1356370
Three economic updates today provide more evidence that moderate growth endures for the US. The numbers du jour—weekly jobless claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Markit’s US purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing—paint an upbeat profile of the macro trend. The main takeaway: the deflationary threat festering in ...

October 23, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1356366

Today is the 78th birthday of Ralph Raico, the foremost historian of classical liberalism.  Among many other works, Ralph is the author of two outstanding collections of essays, Classical Liberalism and the Austrian School and Great Wars and Great Leaders.  As the latter title suggests, he is a ...

October 23, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1356365 is offering a new course developed by George Crowley of Troy University titled “Subliminal Lessons from South Park: A Super Primer on Economics and Politics.” The course blurb:

Hooowdy Ho Everbody! We are excited to bring you our newest ...

October 23, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1356364
The Fed is an accomplice to the increase in inequality. An accomplice is an entity that helps another entity commit a crime. The real change that led to increased inequality is the conspicuous drop in labor share after the crisis. Record profits by firms were not being transmitted to labor. ...

October 23, 2014, 11:33 am, 1356356

That’s the question raised in a new Washington Post column by AEI economist Mike Strain. Or as the click-friendly headline puts it: “Janet Yellen is in danger of becoming a partisan hack: The Federal Reserve chair shouldn’t be picking a side in political debates.”

Keep in mind Strain is no reflexive Yellen ...

October 23, 2014, 11:03 am, 1356293

Low ranked by ALEC-Laffer, California and Minnesota continue to power along, as shown in data released today by the Philadelphia Fed.

Figure 1: Log coincident indices for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (bold red), Kansas (green), California (teal), United States (black), all ...

October 23, 2014, 11:03 am, 1356292
This house price index is only for houses with Fannie or Freddie mortgages.

From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in August

U.S. house prices rose in August, up 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing ...

October 23, 2014, 10:44 am, 1356291

October 23, 2014, 10:34 am, 1356290

John Harris writes:

Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour.

Let's do this. ...

October 23, 2014, 10:34 am, 1356289

John Harris writes:

Perhaps those who reduce people’s worries and fears [about immigration] to mere bigotry should go back to first principles, and consider whether, in such laissez-faire conditions, free movement has been of most benefit to capital or labour.

Let's do this. ...

October 23, 2014, 10:34 am, 1356288

October 23, 2014, 9:33 am, 1356283

There are two different monetary policies. The green monetary policy gives you the green AD curve, and the red monetary policy gives you the red AD curve. Both monetary policies give you exactly the same equilibrium P* and Y*. (You can interpret P* as the price level, or as the ...

October 23, 2014, 9:23 am, 1356282

Photo Credit: whologwhy || Danger: Butterfly at work!

There’s a phenomenon called the Butterfly Effect.  One common quotation is “It has been said that something as small as the flutter of a butterfly’s ...

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356221

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a second consecutive month, signaling policymakers will stick with a tight stance as an emerging-market selloff weakens the lira and inflation remains stubbornly high.

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356220

The Bank of Japan now sees a much bigger possibility of inflation slipping below 1%, pushed down by falling crude oil prices, according to people familiar with the central bank’s thinking, a development that could rekindle market speculation for additional easing.

While the BOJ recognizes that lower oil prices are ultimately ...

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356217

The European Central Bank’s increasingly desperate battle to prevent the eurozone from sliding into deflation suffered a fresh setback in October, as businesses cut their prices at the fastest rate since early 2010.

Some of Europe’s biggest companies have been roiled by weak pricing power, noting that as one factor ...

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356218

A majority of risk managers at North American financial institutions are worried that the growing wealth gap poses a risk to the financial system.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association and FICO, the credit analytics firm, polled bank risk managers on the consequences of inequality during their quarterly survey. ...

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356219

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 23, 2014:

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Douglas’ Take: Global Growth Worries Echo Across the Pond U.S. Agencies Approve Relaxed Mortgage Rules

October 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1356216
The DOL reports:

In the week ending October 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 283,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 264,000 to 266,000. The 4-week moving average was 281,000, a ...

October 23, 2014, 8:44 am, 1356215

October 23, 2014, 8:05 am, 1356214

In 2002 Chinese investors spent just $2.7bn on acquisitions and greenfield projects abroad but by 2013 the total had increased 40-fold to $108bn.

From Jamil Anderlini at the FT, there is more here.

October 23, 2014, 8:05 am, 1356212

This amazing video, introduced by Philip Zimbardo, discusses a real world Milgram “experiment” in which people obeyed an authority figure to an astounding degree, even when the authority figure was just on the telephone.

The video comes from the Heroic Imagination Project which hopes to ...

October 23, 2014, 8:05 am, 1356213

From The Daily Beast:

Greg and Jill Henderson, founders of Hendo, have developed a real hoverboard. Yes, the flying skateboard that millions of moviegoers have wished were real since Back to the Future Part II premiered back in 1989 may become the must-have Christmas gift for 2015. Using “hover engines” that create ...

October 23, 2014, 8:04 am, 1356211
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 284 of the eminent Harvard historian Richard Pipes’s wonderful 1999 volume, Property and Freedom (footnote excluded):

The trend of modern times appears to indicate that citizens of democracies are willing heedlessly to surrender their freedoms to purchase social equality (along with economic security), apparently oblivious ...

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356207

I'm giving BookBub a try. So far, it seems worth some clicks.

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356206

What surprised me: conservatives don't advertise much on ABC Family and Comedy Central and Liberals don't advertise much on the Golf Channel.

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356204

"The White House Says This Scientific Theory Explains Why It Isn't More Open To The Press".

The White House has a scientific explanation for why reporters aren't allowed to view President Barack Obama's interactions with campaign donors:The very act of observing an event can change the event's ...

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356205

Interview. 66 and still rockin'.

Link courtesy of Michael Greenspan.

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356203

I've been a fan of Mike Rowe since his early days on the Discovery Channel's 'Dirty Jobs.' I don't always agree with his political views, but he's entertaining. He has a new show on CNN called 'Somebody's Gotta Do it,' where he highlights what seem to many like ...

October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356143

October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356142

October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356141

October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356140

TECHNOLOGY companies from Google to Audi have made remarkable strides in autonomous vehicle technology over the last few years. This progress is the more impressive given the fact that a decade ago technologists considered driving to be a near un-automatable task. Despite the extraordinary pace of improvement, however, ...

October 23, 2014, 6:34 am, 1356139
● US Inflation Remains Tame | Wall St Journal Consumer-price index ticks up 0.1%, likely giving Fed leeway on rate hikes ● Euro-Area Manufacturing Grows as Risk of Recession Eases | Bloomberg A Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly grew this month, while Spain’s economy showed signs ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 am, 1356134

(p. A11) Mr. Bryce's engrossing survey has two purposes. The first is to refute pessimists who claim that technology-driven economic growth will burn through the planet's resources and lead to catastrophe. "We are living in a world equipped with physical-science capabilities that stagger the imagination," he writes. ...

October 23, 2014, 5:23 am, 1356133

The German economy has been one of the world’s strongest economies in the post-war period. There are many aspects of the German economy which deserve praise and emulation – not least strong productivity growth, a booming export sector and prolonged low ...

October 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356078

LONDON—A senior Bank of England official Thursday pushed back against critics who claim central bank policies only benefit the wealthy.

Those critics say ultralow interest rates and central-bank asset purchases have fueled a surge in asset prices without spurring durable economic growth, benefiting the rich yet doing little for the wider ...

October 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356077
The Impact of a Foreign Terror Incident on the U.S. Stock Market

The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market. We ...

October 23, 2014, 4:44 am, 1356076
As part of the move to a banking union, the largest banks in the Eurozone will soon be supervised by the ECB. This column argues that supervision and the lender of last resort function should be seen as a joint product. After the introduction of the euro, the national central ...

October 23, 2014, 2:05 am, 1356034

Let’s assume books — at the margin of course — bring some external social value, perhaps by stimulating ideas production or by improving the quality of voting and citizenship.  If that were the case, at which margin should we look for this external benefit?  I can think of a few ...

October 23, 2014, 2:04 am, 1356033
(October 23, 2014 12:08 AM, by Bryan Caplan) How is blogging different from traditional media? My knee-jerk answer is, "It caters to a higher-IQ audience," but that's not really true. The real story is that blogging lets a million voices bloom - including but hardly limited to voices... (0 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355990

China’s support policies seemed to have pulled economic growth out of a slump in August. The country’s economic data rebounded in September and the economic growth rate for ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355984

Last week’s financial market volatility could cost the U.S. around 8,000 jobs, according to a rough estimate published Tuesday by Renaissance Macro Research.

Neil Dutta, the firm’s head of economics, calculated the figure ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355983

Many market participants believe there’s a point in a dramatic market selloff when the Federal Reserve will step in and do something to staunch the bleeding.

Call it the Fed “put.” While both men denied it, former Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke were both thought by many to be ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355982
The European Central Bank hopes this year’s tests will appear more credible than those conducted in 2010 and 2011. AP

It’s not the credit rating firm’s “baseline” ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355985

Federal Reserve officials have said the latest round of soft eurozone economic data is not enough to worry them about the U.S. outlook – or revise their fairly optimistic forecasts in the months ahead.

“It’s not really a surprise that growth in Europe has been underperforming for some time,” Boston Fed ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355986
The Flatirons rock formations in Boulder, Colorado. The Centennial State became the latest to record a jobless rate below 5%. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street Journal

The unemployment ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355989

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, October 21, 2014:

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Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Brings a Culture War to Wall Street Fed to Banks: Shape Up ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355988
New York University has faced criticism for its high student-debt loads.

Soft entry-level housing demand has fanned fears that rising student loan burdens may be crimping home purchases.

But new ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355987
Florida Gov. Rick Scott, in Vero Beach, Fla., this month, has put jobs front and center. Getty Images

The campaign offices of Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355980
A worker at a textile factory in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province. Zuma Press

China’s economy slowed down a fraction in the third quarter of the year. If you ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355981
An ocean front area in Miami, Florida. Getty Images

In many American cities, the landlords are increasingly Chinese.

Big institutional Chinese investors who want global real-estate portfolios typically

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355979
Traders work in the crude oil and natural gas options pit on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Getty Images

The recent sharp fall in ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355972

Policy makers and economy-watchers now seem more worried about disinflation rather than accelerating inflation. That wasn’t the expectation at the start of the year. In January, economists surveyed by The Wall Street ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355971

Mortgage holders in the U.K. don’t appear to be losing sleep over fear that the Bank of England will increase interest rates soon, according to a survey released Thursday.

The poll by research firm YouGov PLC in association with the Council of Mortgage Lenders found 60% of ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355974

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wednesday that veteran official Christine Cumming will retire next summer.

Christine Cumming, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355973
A vendor displays a souvenir with pictures of Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and the late Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong to visitors at the underpass outside the Great ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355978
Japanese Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura Bloomberg News

The yen is likely to weaken further due to differences of monetary policies in the U.S. and Japan, but ...

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355977

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, October 22, 2014:

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Quote of the Day: “In 30-40 years, the Fed will admit they caused the Great Recession”—Cato Institute CEO John Allison

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355976

Americans who receive Social Security benefits will see a modest increase in their checks next year to cover higher consumer prices.

The annual cost-of-living adjustment will amount to 1.7% for 2015,

October 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1355975

Roughly 10% of U.S. children were living with a grandparent in 2012, up from 7% in 1992, according to a report from the Census Bureau released Wednesday.

The increase stems partly ...

October 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1355970
David Wessel gives us five reasons to worry about deflation. Should we worried? Well, probably not for the reasons Wessel mentions, which are:


Deflation is a generalized decline in prices and, sometimes, wages. Sure, if you’re lucky enough to get a raise, your paycheck goes further–but those whose ...

October 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1355968

The terms “quid pro quo” has been twisted to now include government handouts and state-mandated exchanges, so long as the value of goods trading hands are deemed to be of “equal value.” True voluntary exchange, on the other hand, is something quite different.

October 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1355969

Tom Woods explains the “unacceptable“ opinions behind freedom and free markets.

October 23, 2014, 12:04 am, 1355966