Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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- Recent Entries


March 28, 2015, 9:33 am, 1446893


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446869

FRANKFURT—German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said it isn’t fair for international finance officials to support European Central Bank quantitative easing, while at the same time criticizing Germany’s current account surplus, given that the former causes the latter to rise.

Speaking in Frankfurt, Mr. Schäuble said that “the immediate consequence” of QE ...


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446870
Chinese President Xi Jingping and Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam in Beijing at a signing ceremony for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, last October. Getty Images

Are ...


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446871
U.S. economic output expanded at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final months of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's a quick look at the report.


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446872

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, March 27, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” Lockhart Says Dollar Rise Becoming ...


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446868
Stefan Ingves, governor of Sweden’s central bank, says agreement on a reappraisal of how regulators should treat government bonds will be hard to reach. Bloomberg News

A ...


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446863

Of the many battles Ukraine and Russia are fighting, an argument about whether to call the $3 billion Kiev owes Moscow at the end of this year “official” or “private” debt may seem insignificant.


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446867
North Dakota’s jobless rate rose to 2.9% in February from 2.8% in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics called “the only significant over-the-month rate increase” for any state. 


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446865
The March payroll report dominates next week’s economic data. Here's what to watch.


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446864

NEW YORK–Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday that overseas central bank stimulus is mixed but ultimately positive for the U.S. economy.

Mr. Yellen, speaking to a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in response to an audience question that it’s true that stimulus in the ...


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446866
Here are five key quotes from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's remarks to a conference at the San Francisco Fed.


March 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446862
A


March 28, 2015, 8:35 am, 1446861
● Invest with the Fed: Maximizing Portfolio Performance by Following Federal Reserve Policy By Robert R. Johnson, et al. Essay by co-author (Robert R. Johnson) via ValueWalk In a recently published McGraw-Hill book – Invest with the Fed – my co-authors, Gerald R. Jensen from Northern Illinois University, Luis-Garcia-Feijoo from ...


March 28, 2015, 8:05 am, 1446860

Hat tip: Daniel Altman.


March 28, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446845

March 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1446844

When hell freezes over I'll consider riding on it.

. . . riders will plummet 81 degrees at 95 mph toward the ground . . .


March 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1446843

"The Brooklyn Nets went all-in on a blockbuster trade with the Celtics — and it's a total disaster 2 years later".


March 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1446842



(p. A11) A higher minimum wage raises wages of low-wage workers, and even though most evidence points to job losses from higher minimum wages, the evidence doesn't point to widespread employment declines. Thus, consistent with a recent Congressional Budget Office report, many more low-wage workers will get ...


March 28, 2015, 5:03 am, 1446837

Of the many battles Ukraine and Russia are fighting, an argument about whether to call the $3 billion Kiev owes Moscow at the end of this year “official” or “private” debt may seem insignificant.


March 28, 2015, 4:05 am, 1446836

Advancement in China’s school system was highly competitive, and the odds of reaching the top of the educational ladder were very steep.  Of the 32.9 million children who entered primary school in 1965, only 9 percent could expect to enter junior high school.  Only 15 percent of junior high school ...


March 28, 2015, 2:45 am, 1446818

The Little Ice Age is generally seen as a major event in European history. Analysing a variety of recent weather reconstructions, this column finds that European weather appears constant from the Middle Ages until 1900, and that events like the freezing of the Thames and the disappearance of English vineyards ...


March 28, 2015, 2:05 am, 1446816

Edward Hugh writes:

So, what do you do about the problem of secular stagnation? Again here there is divergence of opinion. Some still seek to treat the phenomenon as if it were a variant of the liquidity trap issue. Most notable here is Paul Krugman, who continues to hope ...


March 27, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1446806
The Patriot act expires in June, and anyone in their right mind would wish the entire concept to go away entirely. NSA Spying has a 100% perfect track record of failure.

Sadly, the answer to the question Would NSA Data Surveillance End With Patriot Act? is a resounding ...


March 27, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1446805
A


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446788

Two sorts of income inequality have preoccupied scholars in recent years. The first is the growing gap between top earners and those in the middle and at the bottom. The second  is the gap between all of labor on the one hand, and capital (such as profits, interest and rent) ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446787

The Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising interest rates just because the headline unemployment rate is falling, according to new research from two former central bank officials who are concerned the often-cited figure vastly overstates improvements in the job market.

David Blanchflower, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446786

ZURICH–Negative interest rates implemented by the Swiss National Bank two months ago would require more time before they succeed in weakening the franc, a member of the bank’s governing board said on ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446783
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda gestures as he answers questions during a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo. Agence France-Presse/Getty ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446784
The Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Debate within Australia’s central bank is no longer whether interest-rate cuts are necessary, but how many more ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446785
Men look at a Maserati sports car on display at a luxury mall in Shanghai.  Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A widening gap between China’s rich and poor makes ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446781

LONDON–A senior Bank of England official said Friday the chances of a damaging bout of falling prices in the U.K. are slim.

Ben Broadbent, the central bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said a recent slowdown in annual inflation in the U.K. has been driven largely by the fall in oil ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446782
Jens Weidmann, head of Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB governing council member, said Friday that ending the preferential treatment of debt would be a big help to financial stability.


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446780
Stanley Fischer VICTOR J. BLUE/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official urged regulators to be vigilant in monitoring risks outside the traditional banking system even though ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446779

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, March 27, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” Lockhart Says Dollar Rise Becoming ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446775
Stefan Ingves, governor of Sweden’s central bank, says agreement on a reappraisal of how regulators should treat government bonds will be hard to reach. Bloomberg News

A ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446776

FRANKFURT—German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said it isn’t fair for international finance officials to support European Central Bank quantitative easing, while at the same time criticizing Germany’s current account surplus, given that the former causes the latter to rise.

Speaking in Frankfurt, Mr. Schäuble said that “the immediate consequence” of QE ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446777
Chinese President Xi Jingping and Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam in Beijing at a signing ceremony for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, last October. Getty Images

Are ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446778
U.S. economic output expanded at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final months of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's a quick look at the report.


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446774
North Dakota’s jobless rate rose to 2.9% in February from 2.8% in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics called “the only significant over-the-month rate increase” for any state. 


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446773
Here are five key quotes from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's remarks to a conference at the San Francisco Fed.


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446771

NEW YORK–Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday that overseas central bank stimulus is mixed but ultimately positive for the U.S. economy.

Mr. Yellen, speaking to a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in response to an audience question that it’s true that stimulus in the ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1446772
The March payroll report dominates next week’s economic data. Here's what to watch.


March 27, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1446770
A


March 27, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1446765
(March 27, 2015 09:26 PM, by David Henderson) "I've always had trouble succeeding along traditional Bush family lines." So writes Jonathan Bush on p. 1 of his book, Where Does It Hurt? With that one sentence, he had me. Bush is a nephew of George H. W. Bush... (0 COMMENTS)


March 27, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1446721
The March payroll report dominates next week’s economic data. Here's what to watch.


March 27, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1446720

NEW YORK–Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday that overseas central bank stimulus is mixed but ultimately positive for the U.S. economy.

Mr. Yellen, speaking to a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in response to an audience question that it’s true that stimulus in the ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1446719
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 21 March

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 15-21 March 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 3.2 percent to 69.3 ...


March 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1446718
A


March 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1446717

The government is a major player in the marketplace as a buyer of goods and services, but legal scholars seldom pay attention to the law governing federal acquisitions. As it turns out this nearly completely ignored branch of contract law is actually way ahead of the curve, at ...


March 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1446715

Yemen is on a rapid downward spiral. AEI Research Fellow Katherine Zimmerman explains how the conflict in Yemen could play out much like the war raging in Syria.


March 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1446711
Of S&P 500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, MarketWatch reports 84% have been negative as Profit Warnings Pile Up.

Ahead of the start of earnings reporting season, which unofficially kicks off when Alcoa Inc., reports results on April 8, about 84% of the companies that have provided first-quarter outlooks ...


March 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1446710

The top chart above shows the annual brewery count in the US from 1874 to 2014, based on data from the Brewer’s Association here, and the bottom chart shows the annual change in the ...


March 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1446709

The post Dilbert on economists appeared first on AEI.


March 27, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1446708
Just a quick note on whether the Fed should raise interest rates later this year. One concern that many observers have with the Fed tightening is that nominal wage growth has yet to show any signs of accelerating. They often point to the employment cost index which ...


March 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1446655
Here are five key quotes from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's remarks to a conference at the San Francisco Fed.


March 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1446654

Microfoundations from Acemogl, Oxdaglar, and Tahbaz-salehi:

Microeconomic origins of macroeconomic tail risks, by Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi: Understanding large economic downturns is one of macroeconomics’ central goals. This column argues that imbalances in input-output linkages can interact with firm-level shocks to produce output fluctuations that are ...


March 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1446653

Robert Shiller:

How Idealism, Expressed in Concrete Steps, Can Fight Climate Change: Idealism combined with an intriguing application of economic theory may accomplish what international conferences have not: solve the seemingly intractable problem of global warming.

Despite periodic flurries of optimism, diplomacy has been largely disappointing. ... From ...


March 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1446652
From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Normalizing Monetary Policy: Prospects and Perspectives. Excerpts:

Why Might an Increase in the Federal Funds Rate Be Warranted Later This Year?
The Committee's decision about when to begin reducing accommodation will depend importantly on how economic conditions actually evolve over time. ...


March 27, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1446651
A


March 27, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1446650

HOW resilient are emerging-market economies? Many are struggling, thanks to the economic impact of a strong dollar. But what would happen if things suddenly got a lot tougher? A new paper, from Liliana Rojas-Suarez of the Centre for Global ...


March 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1446647
(Don Boudreaux)

In my Principles of Microeconomics class, when we’re discussing the role of prices and of speculation, I share with my students the following story (as recounted in this September 2008 letter to the station manager of WAMU radio in DC):

This morning your reporter interviewed a resident of ...


March 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1446646

Scott Gottlieb addressed the Attorneys General Education Program Public Policy Conference on Federalism and the Pharmaceutical Industry on Thursday, March 26, 2015. Gottlieb expounded on regulation and the drug development process and discussed the challenges of translating innovative science and needed therapies to market.

Download the full presentation here.


March 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1446644

An interesting “what if” scenario from Deutsche Bank’s Gaël Gunubu on H.J. Heinz ‘s purchase of Kraft Food, particularly as it concerns the role of the Oracle of Omaha:

Thought experiment: how would this “merger” have been reported if you swapped the popular, cuddly Warren Buffet with Gordon Gekko? No-doubt critics would have ...


March 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1446645

The top chart above shows the annual brewery count in the US from 1874 to 2014, based on data from the Brewer’s Association


March 27, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1446640
Is gold about to "run out"? The correct answer to that question is the likelihood of that happening is precisely 0%.

However, that is not the conclusion one would come to from the Zerohedge headline Peak Gold? Goldman Calculates There Is Only 20 Years Of Gold ...


March 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1446579

Yesterday we released an independent report (PDF) analyzing Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval’s proposed Business License Fee tax. The proposal replaces Nevada’s current $200-flat business license fee with a tiered gross receipts tax.

Governor Sandoval quickly responded with a statement calling our report “utterly irresponsible, intellectually dishonest, and ...


March 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1446578
North Dakota’s jobless rate rose to 2.9% in February from 2.8% in what the Bureau of Labor Statistics called “the only significant over-the-month rate increase” for any state. 


March 27, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1446577
A


March 27, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1446573

March 27, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1446572

From Will Wilkinson:

Reminder: The much greater mystery is why people don’t go on shooting sprees or crash planes on purpose ALL THE TIME.


March 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1446571

The disappearance of middle-skill, middle-paying jobs over the past generation is a global phenomenon. One I have written frequently about. The technical term is “job polarization.” Jobs are created at the top and bottom but not so much in the middle. Machines have been replacing humans in middle-skill ...


March 27, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1446567
‘The lesson of all this is that the economy is complicated and textbook economic logic alone will get us only so far’


March 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1446507
Stefan Ingves, governor of Sweden’s central bank, says agreement on a reappraisal of how regulators should treat government bonds will be hard to reach. Bloomberg News

A ...


March 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1446506
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in February. Twenty-six states had unemployment rate decreases from January, 6 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 18 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446502
(Don Boudreaux)

In my Principles of Microeconomics class at George Mason University, my students and I recently discussed the economics of so-called “price gouging” – the signifiant rise in the prices of staple goods (and services) following a natural disaster.  Basic supply-and-demand analysis explains quite well the observed pattern of ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446501


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446500
Well quite the interesting news twist this morning as Senate Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid announces he will not be running for re-election. Which of course launched the standard narrative of which current lieutenant would move up, giving us the rather stultifying debate of “Schumer vs Durbin”. Or Clinton’s former ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446499
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses the latest developments out of Yemen on Fox Business' 'The Willis Report.'


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446498

America’s churches are in trouble, and they are in trouble in communities that arguably need them the most.

One of the tragic tales told by Harvard scholar Robert Putnam in his important new book, “Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis,” is that America’s churches have grown weakest in some of ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446497

March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446496

Goldman Sachs is out with a great report on wages — as in, “Where’s the wage growth?” The GS economics team notes the following: “Nominal wage growth as measured by our “wage tracker”—a weighted average of the employment cost index, average hourly earnings, and compensation per hour— has remained broadly ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446495

The initial impetus behind charter schools was to allow teachers and principals the freedom to create mission-driven schools. In the newly-released edited volume from Gary J. Schmitt and Cheryl Miller titled “Trendsetting Charter Schools: Raising the Bar for Civic Education,” several of my ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446494

It’s no surprise that the export lobby and ethanol lobby are fighting fiercely to save their subsidies. What’s a bit odd is that, for the first time, there’s a powerful anti-subsidy lobby working against them.

Corporate welfare persists in Washington because the tiny fraction of companies that pocket the billions care ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1446493

‘I don’t understand how Jews in America can be Democrats first and Jewish second and support Israel along the line of just following their president,” vented Representative Steve King (R., Iowa) on Boston Herald Radio last week.

It was a small controversy in the grand scheme of things, easily overlooked during ...


March 27, 2015, 11:34 am, 1446492

|Peter Boettke|

James Buchanan once remarked that "Political economists stress the technical economic principles that one must understand in order to assess alternative arrangements for promoting peaceful cooperation and productive specialization among free men. Yet political economists go further and frankly try to bring out into the open the ...


March 27, 2015, 11:33 am, 1446491
Luis Armona, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its February 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit ...


March 27, 2015, 11:33 am, 1446490

Circa 2000:

The most striking result from table 7 is that choice set definition has very little effect on the trip cost coefficients which range from –0.053 to –0.057 even though the choice set definitions in table 2 eliminate an average minimum of 13% and maximum of 82% of the available ...


March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446426
Chinese President Xi Jingping and Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam in Beijing at a signing ceremony for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, last October. Getty Images

Are ...


March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446425

FRANKFURT—German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said it isn’t fair for international finance officials to support European Central Bank quantitative easing, while at the same time criticizing Germany’s current account surplus, given that the former causes the latter to rise.

Speaking in Frankfurt, Mr. Schäuble said that “the immediate consequence” of QE ...


March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446424

Conservatives have GNDS (good news derangement syndrome):

Mornings in Blue America, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...remember how Obamacare was supposed to be a gigantic job killer? Well, in the first year of the Affordable Care Act..., the U.S. economy .,, added 3.3 million jobs — ...


March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446423

Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March was at 93.0, up from the preliminary estimate of 91.2, and ...


March 27, 2015, 10:45 am, 1446422
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March 27, 2015, 10:45 am, 1446421
A


March 27, 2015, 10:45 am, 1446418
A


March 27, 2015, 10:45 am, 1446419
A


March 27, 2015, 10:45 am, 1446420
A


March 27, 2015, 10:35 am, 1446417

The “doc fix” passes the House. The House overwhelmingly approved the Medicare “doc fix” to replace automatic payment cuts (that Congress has delayed every year since 2003) with a temporary 0.5 percent annual hike in physician reimbursements. But the bipartisan deal, which CBO figures would add $141 billion ...


March 27, 2015, 10:35 am, 1446416

In its analysis of the tax reform plan proposed recently by Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT), the Tax Foundation assumed the proposal would make the new personal credit ($2,000 for singles and $4,000 for married couples) fully refundable. This assumption helps explain why the group concluded the Lee-Rubio plan would ...


March 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446414
(March 27, 2015 11:49 AM, by David Henderson) This is the longest time I've gone without posting, other than when I'm on vacation at my cottage in Canada in August. I was traveling and my computer was being repaired after I got back. I gave a talk at... (0 COMMENTS)


March 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446413
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 256 of William Easterly’s excellent 2006 book, The White Man’s Burden:

It is the job of economists to point out trade-offs; it is the job of politicians and Planners to deny that trade-offs exist.


March 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446412

As the starting gate loads for the large field of 2016 presidential candidates in the Republican party, there has not been much differentiation thus far in what the leading contenders have said about health policy. New ideas are risky, and it’s usually far easier to recycle the well-rehearsed denunciations of ...


March 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446411

Citizenship education is too often like . . . the weather: everyone talks about it but no one does anything about it. This book, however, showcases an array of innovative schools that are doing something about it. And doing it well. These case studies demonstrate that schools do not have ...


March 27, 2015, 9:33 am, 1446408


March 27, 2015, 9:23 am, 1446407
Last week I started writing up a quick (?) methodology to forecast equity returns. Specifically, the question was

Forecast the real total return of U.S. equities over the next ten years. Show your work.Time: two hours.

I wrote down a decomposition of the total return into three components:


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446345

LONDON–A senior Bank of England official said Friday the chances of a damaging bout of falling prices in the U.K. are slim.

Ben Broadbent, the central bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said a recent slowdown in annual inflation in the U.K. has been driven largely by the fall in oil ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446344
Stanley Fischer VICTOR J. BLUE/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official urged regulators to be vigilant in monitoring risks outside the traditional banking system even though ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446342
U.S. economic output expanded at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final months of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's a quick look at the report.


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446343

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, March 27, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” Lockhart Says Dollar Rise Becoming ...


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446341

Last week, we explored the history of the right triangle. This week, we're going to add an extra side and two extra dimensions as we consider the four dimensional cube!


March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446340
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2014 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according ...


March 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1446339
The historic and ongoing drought in California is getting harder to ignore in terms of its potential impact on the US economy down the road. The Golden State, after all, boasts the country’s largest GDP among the 50 states, representing a bit more than 13% of US output, based on ...


March 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1446338

As you listen to House Democrats and Republicans sing kumbaya  over their bipartisan agreement to fix the Medicare physician payment system, keep one thing in mind: The doc fix doesn’t fix much, and what it does repair likely will add hundreds of billions of dollars to the debt in ...


March 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1446337

The “doc fix” passes the House. The House overwhelmingly approved the Medicare “doc fix” to replace automatic payment cuts (that Congress has delayed every year since 2003) with a temporary 0.5 percent annual hike in physician reimbursements. But the bipartisan deal, which CBO figures would add $141 billion ...


March 27, 2015, 8:34 am, 1446336
Teaser:

As ...


March 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1446333
(March 27, 2015 07:08 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) The Wall Street Journal often provides its readers with eye-opening arguments in the "Notable and Quotable" column hosted in its editorial page. On March 13, the WSJ quoted William Baumol, Robert Litan, and Carl Schramm, "Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and... (0 COMMENTS)


March 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1446332

America’s churches are in trouble, and they are in trouble in communities that arguably need them the most.

One of the tragic tales told by Harvard scholar Robert Putnam in his important new book, “Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis,” is that America’s churches have grown weakest in some of ...


March 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1446328

Usage of "bro" in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana surprises me. But I haven't been to those places in a very long time.


March 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1446327

I would pay cash money to see Scott Walker do Colonel Jessup.


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446289

DETROIT—Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said Thursday he’s paying increased attention to what has been a rising dollar to see if it’s weighing on the economy at a time where the central bank is getting closer to raising interest rates.

The dollar’s value is “part of that picture” ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446290

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, March 26, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: U.S. Growth Revisions Pose Challenge for the Fed Major Central Banks Agree ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446288
A shopper uses Apple Pay to make a purchase. A new report by the Federal Reserve finds Americans are increasingly comfortable using their cell phones for banking and payments.


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446287

Two sorts of income inequality have preoccupied scholars in recent years. The first is the growing gap between top earners and those in the middle and at the bottom. The second  is the gap between all of labor on the one hand, and capital (such as profits, interest and rent) ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446285

ZURICH–Negative interest rates implemented by the Swiss National Bank two months ago would require more time before they succeed in weakening the franc, a member of the bank’s governing board said on ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446286

The Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising interest rates just because the headline unemployment rate is falling, according to new research from two former central bank officials who are concerned the often-cited figure vastly overstates improvements in the job market.

David Blanchflower, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446284
Men look at a Maserati sports car on display at a luxury mall in Shanghai.  Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A widening gap between China’s rich and poor makes ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446283
The Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Debate within Australia’s central bank is no longer whether interest-rate cuts are necessary, but how many more ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446282
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda gestures as he answers questions during a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo. Agence France-Presse/Getty ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446280

LONDON–A senior Bank of England official said Friday the chances of a damaging bout of falling prices in the U.K. are slim.

Ben Broadbent, the central bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said a recent slowdown in annual inflation in the U.K. has been driven largely by the fall in oil ...


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446281

 

Jens Weidmann, head of Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB governing council member, said Friday that ending the preferential treatment of debt would be a big help to financial stability.


March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446279
Stanley Fischer VICTOR J. BLUE/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official urged regulators to be vigilant in monitoring risks outside the traditional banking system even though ...


March 27, 2015, 6:44 am, 1446278

Understanding large economic downturns is one of macroeconomics’ central goals. This column argues that imbalances in input-output linkages can interact with firm-level shocks to produce output fluctuations that are much larger than the underlying shocks. The result can be large cycles arising from small, firm-level shocks. It is thus important ...


March 27, 2015, 6:44 am, 1446277
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March 27, 2015, 6:35 am, 1446276
● Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Level in 5 Weeks | Bloomberg ● Sharpest rise in US service sector business activity for 6 months in March | Markit ● Consumer Comfort in U.S. Matches Second-Highest Level Since 2007 | Bloomberg ● France March Consumer Confidence Highest Since Nov ...


March 27, 2015, 6:04 am, 1446274
Via Daily Kos, we learn that Wikileaks has released the investment chapter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This is a critical chapter, as it was in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), because it establishes investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms. Despite its neutral-sounding name, ISDS is actually a radical ...


March 27, 2015, 5:34 am, 1446270

"Guardian Column: Straight Women in Baggy Clothes Are Appropriating Lesbian Culture".

“What was once a queer-owned style has shifted to the mainstream, being appropriated by straight women to the point that it’s now impossible to infer a sexual orientation from the way a woman dresses,” Wilkinson writes ...


March 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1446231

 

Jens Weidmann, head of Germany’s Bundesbank and ECB governing council member, said Friday that ending the preferential treatment of debt would be a big help to financial stability.


March 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1446230

March 27, 2015, 4:44 am, 1446229
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March 27, 2015, 4:44 am, 1446228

THIS week's print edition has an array of economics articles that may be of interest. The following have particularly caught our eye:

South Korea's economy:A tiger in winter(Finance)

Milk and economic development:No use crying(Finance)

Inequality and housing:Through the roof(Finance)

And ...


March 27, 2015, 4:05 am, 1446226

Here is one excerpt from his very interesting post:

I get and very much like the skeptical, anti-theoretical thrust of Strauss. I like his deep wariness of ideal theorizing, his exhortations to pay attention to the political life we are always already living. He’s right to see reasoning with ...


March 27, 2015, 4:04 am, 1446225


March 27, 2015, 3:33 am, 1446222
Unconventional Yields

Swiss Bonds are negative out to 10 years. They briefly went negative out to 15 years in the wake of the sudden removal of the Swiss National Bank peg to the euro back on January 13 as show in the following chart.

Swiss 15-Year Bond Yield ...


March 27, 2015, 3:03 am, 1446194
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda gestures as he answers questions during a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan in Tokyo. Agence France-Presse/Getty ...


March 27, 2015, 2:44 am, 1446193

In this week's episode, EconTalk host Russ Roberts sat down with Duke University's Campbell Harvey to discuss his research on various investment strategies.

Here are some follow-up questions--please share your response in the Comments. We love to hear from you, and as always, please help us continue the conversation. ...


March 27, 2015, 2:05 am, 1446192

I was pleased to have been invited to deliver one of the comments at Elizabeth Anderson’s Tanner lectures at Princeton a few weeks ago.  I have put the comment on my home page here.  I introduce the topic in this manner:

I won’t summarize her views, but ...


March 27, 2015, 2:04 am, 1446191

America has engaged in off-and-on nuclear negotiations with North Korea for more than 20 years. The talks, resulting in the 1994 Agreed Framework, may have slowed Pyongyang’s weapons program, but they have not prevented North Korea from testing nuclear weapons or declaring itself a nuclear power. Now, Washington is engaged ...


March 27, 2015, 1:33 am, 1446190

My wife is a Marylander and she is obsessed with blue crabs and Old Bay, so we have tried many food items with Old Bay. The typical approach is just to pour a ton of the spice in or on everything, so I was a little skeptical when I heard ...


March 27, 2015, 1:33 am, 1446189
Have you ever written a book manuscript and submitted it to a leading academic press and received four favourable reviews all recommending publication? But then based on a negative report from a scholar who doesn't have an econ degree, your manuscript is rejected. A bad day. An embarrassing day. ...


March 27, 2015, 1:03 am, 1446168
The Reserve Bank of Australia in Sydney. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Debate within Australia’s central bank is no longer whether interest-rate cuts are necessary, but how many more ...


March 27, 2015, 12:04 am, 1446167
Doktor Zoom at Wonkette reports on the delightful and important consequences of the foolish decision by Rep Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA) to ask the public to report Obamacare horror stories on her facebook page. Matthew Yglesias found it too. Facebook isn’t reality (warning to the kids who might be ready) ...