Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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- Recent Entries

January 20, 2017, 12:04 am, 1712094

Questions of race, justice, and political ideology have been essential to school reform for decades. But recently, bipartisan coalitions have unraveled, and education reform has become increasingly polarized. Need these debates be so divisive? How can we promote reasoned, empathetic, and respectful discussion?

Join us for a frank discussion that explores ...

January 19, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1712076
Globalisation offers many benefits, some of which cannot be separated from other types of policy. This column examines how the benefits from removing regulations that impede competition are partly contingent on openness to import competition. Using recent firm-level analyses of productivity growth, it argues that those firms that contribute the ...

January 19, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1712074
Innovation is typically seen a cumulative process, with new technologies building upon existing knowledge, but our knowledge of how progress in a specific area is influenced by knowledge in other, ‘upstream’ areas is limited. Using US patent data, this column identifies a stable ‘innovation network’ that serves as a conduit ...

January 19, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1712075
The negative impact of higher capital requirements under Basel II on the provision of trade finance has been cited as one of the factors behind the Great Trade Collapse. This column exploits the adoption of the Basel II framework in Turkey in 2012 to investigate how a shock to the ...

January 19, 2017, 9:03 pm, 1712058
From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Economic Outlook and the Conduct of Monetary Policy

In my remarks today, I will review the considerable progress the economy has made toward the attainment of the two objectives that the Congress has assigned to the Federal Reserve--maximum employment and price stability. The ...

January 19, 2017, 6:44 pm, 1712034

The latest data from the nineteen member countries of the Eurozone show an average unemployment rate of 9.9 percent. That is good news, ...

January 19, 2017, 6:34 pm, 1712033
A A Tags Home | Feed | Blog.rssWar and Foreign PolicyThe Failures of Obama's Foreign PolicyPolitical Theory

January 19, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1712030

Civilian employment and nonfarm payroll employment both decline.

Here is Wisconsin NFP employment compared to Minnesota and the US.

Figure 1: Minnesota nonfarm payroll employment (blue), Wisconsin (red), ...

January 19, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1712031
(January 19, 2017 05:21 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Since I think that most news is overblown fluff, I have little sympathy for the endless pieces about "What we've learned about the world in 2016." Against the background of all of human history, 2016 taught us next to nothing.... (0 COMMENTS)

January 19, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1712029
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 100 of Frank Machovec’s profoundly important 1995 volume, Perfect Competition and the Transformation of ...

January 19, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1712028

No new monetary policy can restore economic growth until the Dodd-Frank Act is repealed or substantially revised and regulation elsewhere is significantly slowed. Over the past eight years, the effect of changing monetary policies on economic growth has received almost exclusive attention from economists. This is true for a simple ...

January 19, 2017, 5:33 pm, 1712026

January 19, 2017, 5:03 pm, 1711995
In a new report for the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), Dan Sumner, Joe Glauber, and I consider all the different ways that farm programs could affect prices or incomes, which in turn could affect poverty and nutrition for low-income Americans. We conclude:

Despite occasional claims to the contrary, ...

January 19, 2017, 4:44 pm, 1711994

January 19, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1711993
(Don Boudreaux)

An insightful e-mail this morning from my colleague Pete Boettke prompted me to ask myself: What are the most ...

January 19, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1711992

At noon on Friday, Donald Trump will legitimately become the president of the United States. Voters made a free choice, their votes were tabulated accurately, he won the contest under the rules that have always applied to presidential races, the electors registered as much, and Congress certified the results.

January 19, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1711991

Yuval Levin, the Hertog Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, joins the show to discuss his book “The Fractured Republic: Renewing America’s Social Contract in the Age of Individualism” (Basic Books). The book offers an explanation for why Americans feel so polarized and a vision for a new approach ...

January 19, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1711955

Who really loses from the House Republicans’ plan for a border-adjusted corporate tax?

Here’s one possibility: Americans who own assets denominated in foreign currencies. Here’s why.

The loudest complaints come from importers, who worry they’ll have to raise prices or face tax bills larger than their profits. But retailers, oil refiners ...

January 19, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1711954

From the NBER Digest:

Potential Biases of Ride-Sharing Drivers: The advent of the ride-sharing industry is rapidly changing the marketplace for transportation. New services are crowding the traditional taxi industry, which is subject to an array of local regulations, including strict anti-discrimination laws designed to prevent taxi drivers from offering ...

January 19, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1711953

Larry Summers:

Economy under Trump: Plan for the worst: ...There has not been so much anxiety about U.S. global leadership or about the sustainability of market-oriented democracy at any time in the past half-century. Yet with markets not only failing to swoon as predicted, but actually rallying strongly after ...

January 19, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1711952
Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.226 Million Annual Rate in December

The housing starts report this morning was above consensus because of the sharp increase in multi-family starts. Multi-family is frequently volatile month-to-month, and has seen especially wild swings over the last four months.

Meanwhile single ...

January 19, 2017, 2:44 pm, 1711951

The Second Circuit on Tuesday released its long-awaited opinion on the Trust Indenture Act, Marblegate v. EDMC. Several of us Slipsters have been discussing the case behind the scenes, and others will have (more intelligent) things to say about the opinion than I, ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711948

Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow have a new paper (pdf) on this topic.  I haven’t had a chance to look at it, but here is the bottom line:

… we find: (i) social media was an important but not dominant source of news in the run-up to the ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711947
This continues joint research with Marco Fioramanti. Our aim is to understand something about European natural rates of unemployment and whether the European Commissions estimated levels which they call NAWRU (for non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment) are useful approximations. Here is a brief summary of work to date ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711945

Mental health advocates are worried that President-elect Donald Trump will undermine disability rights. Civil justice advocates fear that his nominee for attorney general, Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., will unravel the Department of Justice’s power to police the police. These two domains converge on how law enforcement handles people such ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711944

Read the PDF

For more than a decade, AEI has published a compilation of polls on abortion around the time of the anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade (1973) decision. This AEI Public Opinion Study is the most comprehensive collection available of public opinion surveys on abortion, ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711946

More than two years after initial revelations of corruption involving Brazil’s state-owned oil company, Petrobras, and the construction firm, Odebrecht, the scandal continues to roil the country and its trading partners in Latin America, demonstrating once again that corruption remains a fundamental challenge for the region. The corruption revealed by ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711942

The U.K.’s Guardian tells us, “Yet another study – this one from no less an authority than the non-partisan US Government Accountability Office (GAO) – is here to remind us that we’re woefully unprepared, financially speaking, for retirement…. [T]he truth is that as many as half of all ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711943

How to evaluate the economic record of Barack Obama? To even begin answering, it’s necessary to go beyond just counting the number of jobs created during his presidency (10 million) or calculating the average growth rate (1.5%) or even looking at ...

January 19, 2017, 1:03 pm, 1711910

Me, at MoneyWatch with what turns into a mini-rant towards the end:

What the Davos crowd needs to understand: One of the themes of this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos this year is “Preparing for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.” How will digital technology and the rise of ...

January 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1711909

January 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1711908
(Don Boudreaux)

In this short video, GMU Econ alum Abby Hall Blanco discusses U.S. government surveillance on Americans, and explains that such ...

January 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1711907

January 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1711906

January 19, 2017, 11:34 am, 1711904

Many macroeconomists don't like the Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply framework often used in Introductory macro textbooks. Maybe that's because it isn't explained properly. So I am going to explain it my way.

If you explain the AD/AS framework my way, you will see that it portrays a deep and realistic understanding of ...

January 19, 2017, 11:33 am, 1711902

At times scientists can be their own worse enemy. In an attempt to be accurate, scientists sometimes forget the most basic ruleof communicating: know your audience. In the case of explaining climate change, and in particular, explaining rising global temperatures, scientists have chosen to use the phrase 'global average surface ...

January 19, 2017, 11:33 am, 1711903

Apparently when it comes to Alternative Energy Blogs, we are the 9th ranked blog in the 'News' category.

January 19, 2017, 11:33 am, 1711901

…. is from George Mason University economist Walter E. Williams, writing in his syndicated column this week “International Trade Thuggery“:

All trade is fair in the eyes of the parties trading, or else they would not trade. It’s third parties who seek to interfere.

MP: And it’s not disinterested busybody ...

January 19, 2017, 11:03 am, 1711869
Earlier from the Philly Fed: Manufacturing Activity Continued to Improve in January

Economic conditions continued to improve in January, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and employment were all positive this month and increased from their ...

January 19, 2017, 10:44 am, 1711868

There has been a lot of talk lately about the idea of a basic income guarantee, or BIG, which has garnered support from across the ideological spectrum. In this week's ...

January 19, 2017, 10:34 am, 1711867

Tribalism in politics isn’t always a bad thing.

I’m prompted to say this by the fact that at least one decent Leaver thinks May’s Brexit strategy is wrong. Pete North calls it “unhinged lunacy” and a “clueless gamble.”

Some of us, though, had an inkling ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711860
(Don Boudreaux)

Scott Sumner’s recent EconLog post on the awful distortions and fallacies that run rampant ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711859

The attempted imposition of the notorious Obama-era “HHS mandate” on religious organizations, especially Catholic institutions, reflected an attitude that has been pervasive during Obama’s presidency, which is one of barely concealed hostility toward persons or organizations holding on to traditional religious beliefs. It should be the first order of business ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711858

On January 17, 2017, The Wall Street Journal published a letter submitted by three prominent basic medical researchers and another from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich protesting an op-ed I wrote in that venue challenging the prevalent myth that public funding of research — what I characterized as “the government-academic biomedical complex” ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711857

The latest GAO report highlights improvements in FDA oversight of manufacturing sites selling medicines into US. Whereas seven years ago 64% of foreign locations had never been inspected, today the figure is closer to a third.  Part of the problem is that no one really wants to inspect plants ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711856

When HMS Queen Elizabeth makes her maiden voyage in 2021 as the United Kingdom’s newest aircraft carrier, its White Ensign will flutter far from traditional Royal Navy haunts in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. According to Sir Kim Darroch, HM Ambassador in Washington, DC, Britain’s largest and most visible warship will sail Pacific ...

January 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711855

Since 1937, January has been the chosen month for every president to deliver his inaugural address to the American people. It seems like just yesterday that we listened to 47-year-old Barack Obama deliver his first inaugural address in January 2009. The moment was significant for several reasons: he was ...

January 19, 2017, 9:34 am, 1711852

|Peter Boettke|

This is an outstanding program and I would strongly encourage anyone interested in economics, political economy and social philosophy to apply. I would strongly encourage PhD fellows at GMU and our Adam Smith Fellows to see if the program fits into your schedule.

Here is a description from ...

January 19, 2017, 9:33 am, 1711851

This is on the front page of today's NY Times:

Global temperatures have continued to rise, making 2016 the hottest year on the historical record and the third consecutive record-breaking year, scientists say. Of the 17 hottest years ever recorded, 16 have now occurred since 2000.

January 19, 2017, 9:33 am, 1711850

Source: The Fake News Experts at the Washington Post*

*Facetiousness alert

January 19, 2017, 9:03 am, 1711816

America’s most recent immigrants are more educated and more likely to fill professional and technical jobs than their predecessors, highlighting the changing demographics of non-native workers and a potential shift in the political landscape on immigration.

Jed Kolko, chief economist at job site Indeed, used Census Bureau data to dissect the ...

January 19, 2017, 9:03 am, 1711815
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,226,000. This is 11.3 percent above the revised November rate of 1,102,000 and is 5.7 percent above the December 2015 rate of 1,160,000.

Single-family housing ...

January 19, 2017, 9:03 am, 1711814
The DOL reported:

In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 247,000 to 249,000. The 4-week moving average was 246,750, a ...

January 19, 2017, 8:34 am, 1711813

The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 10-year yields touched 2.0% on Wednesday (Jan. 18) for the first time in more than two years as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave an upbeat assessment of the US economic outlook. “The economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward ...

January 19, 2017, 8:04 am, 1711812
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 67 of Jerry Evensky’s article “The Wealth of Nations,” which is chapter 5 in Ryan Patrick ...

January 19, 2017, 7:33 am, 1711808

Made me smile.

Who knows just how the clash between the Trump Administration and career bureaucrats will play out, but for the time being we have the great Dan Mitchell to thank for bringing our attention to this splendid video from someone in Latin America, where ...

January 19, 2017, 5:33 am, 1711778

As an appendix-less American, I found this short piece interesting.

January 19, 2017, 5:33 am, 1711777

Short piece that argues "Air Quality Steadily Improved During 20th Century [before the EPA]".

January 19, 2017, 5:03 am, 1711765

January 19, 2017, 4:44 am, 1711764
A high correlation of business cycles is usually seen as a key criterion for an optimum currency area. This column argues that the elasticity with which countries react to the common cycle is equally important. A country with a non-unitary growth elasticity relative to the common area will experience cyclical ...

January 19, 2017, 4:44 am, 1711763

January 19, 2017, 4:04 am, 1711762

From Garrett S. Christensen and Edward Miguel, from their survey of methodological problems in economic research:

Another potentially useful tool is post-publication peer review.  Formalizing post-publication peer review puts us in relatively uncharted waters.  Yet it is worth noting that all four of the AEA’s American Economic Journals ...

January 19, 2017, 4:04 am, 1711761

Here is one good bit of many:

I think that there are two big dangers from a Trump administration: one is a crisis, either the collapse of NATO or starting a nuclear war with another state, and the other is that he does a “grand bargain”, particularly because things probably ...

January 19, 2017, 3:03 am, 1711753

We're following up a prediction we made back in September 2016 today:

Looking toward the current quarter, there is early evidence that points to an increase in the acceleration of private ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 am, 1711750

I wrote it for a Spanish-language periodical, here is the end bit:

There is plenty of talk about Obama being half-black but perhaps the more important fact is that Obama is from Hawaii. Many Hawaiians barely think of themselves as North Americans and they live thousands of miles from ...

January 19, 2017, 2:04 am, 1711749

…because he thought he knew better.

January 19, 2017, 12:04 am, 1711745

In March 2015, The Atlantic magazine ran a cover story titled “What ISIS Really Wants.” The author was Graeme Wood, journalist, correspondent for The Atlantic, and lecturer at Yale University. His reporting and research on ISIS has now become a book, “The Way of the Strangers: Encounters with the Islamic ...