Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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July 7, 2015, 2:05 am, 1504594

Skywatchers hoping to see a shooting star may soon be able to order them on demand.

A group of Japanese scientists say they have a shooting-star secret formula — an undisclosed chemical mixture packed into tiny, inch-wide balls that the team hopes to eject from a satellite to create on-demand meteor ...


July 7, 2015, 2:05 am, 1504593

1. Stephen Witt, How Music Got Free: The End of an Industry, the Turn of the Century, and the Patient Zero of Piracy.  Most of all, Learned how much hard work and ingenuity was behind the MP3 standard, in any case a good and useful book.

2. P.W. Singer ...


July 7, 2015, 1:33 am, 1504591
Is Grexit even possible?

It strikes me that the best Greece can do with a Drachma is to create a two-currency system, sort of like Cuba or Venezuela, or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek government seems to admire, and whose economies its may soon resemble.


July 7, 2015, 1:33 am, 1504592
Charles Calomiris has a very interesting Forbes oped on Greece, with a much deeper insight.

My proposal begins with government action to write down the value of all euro-denominated contracts enforced within Greece. This “redenomination” would make all existing contracts – wages, pensions, deposits, and loans – legally ...


July 6, 2015, 10:45 pm, 1504545
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July 6, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1504520
A sharp decline in oil prices, from the WSJ: Oil Prices Tumble Nearly 8%

Oil prices on Monday skidded to their biggest single-day declines in more than three months, as gyrations in Chinese stocks and the prospect of more crude from the U.S. and Iran revived worries about ...


July 6, 2015, 8:05 pm, 1504518

From the FT:

He was replaced by Euclid Tsakalotos, an Oxford-educated Marxist who is considered more pragmatic than the hardline Mr Varoufakis.

And this:

Mr Tsipras also persuaded other Greek political leaders, following seven hours of talks, to back a ...


July 6, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1504517
(July 6, 2015 09:07 PM, by David Henderson) Every once in a while, Paul Krugman writes a post that I find moving and, dare I say, endearing. He had one today titled "The Scale of Things (Personal and Trivial)." It is personal. I don't think it's trivial. I... (0 ...


July 6, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1504516
Every age group but 65 and older voted "No" in the referendum as the following Greek "No" Vote Demographics shows.



click on chart for sharper image

The following email was to a reader of mine. The email comments ...


July 6, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1504515

1. Steve Cuozzo writing in the New York Post tell New Yorkers that “Uber Can Save Us from Yellow-Cab Horrors,” and says that “The sorry state of the ‘regulated’ taxi industry is the main reason why Uber and its ilk deserve free rein on our streets.”

2. Black business leader ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1504471

With the clock ticking, Governor Jay Inslee (D) called the Washington State Legislature into its third and final special session on June 28th to determine the budget for the next biennium. The budget includes many important changes in the state tax code.

Although the Office of Financial Management projected


July 6, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1504470

There have been several big legislative changes and proposals from D.C’s lawmakers over the past week. On June 30th, Washington D.C’s legislative council voted to allow several tax cuts to take effect in September ahead of schedule and authorized an emergency measure to deter synthetic drug use. Additionally, ...


July 6, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1504469
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July 6, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1504466

ABSTRACT: Cycles in housing finance, as in finance and economics in general, are inevitable. The 1960s pipe dream that business cycles could be prevented by macroeconomic “fine tuning” (as the term was then), which was to be guided by Keynesian government economists playing Platonic guardians, was shown to be a ...


July 6, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1504465
In this gated WSJ Editorial, Gov. Rick Perry is quoted and says; "There is a lot of talk in Washington about inequality. Income inequality. But there is a lot less talk about the inequality that arises from the high cost of everyday life. In blue state coastal cities, you ...


July 6, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1504404
Demonstrators hold a banner reading “Rome with Athens” during a rally for the Greek referendum in downtown Rome’s Piazza Farnese on July 3. FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Whatever ...


July 6, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1504402
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July 6, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1504403
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July 6, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1504401
Teaser:


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504394

This article appears in the July 6, 2015 issue of National Review.

Every political season, Democrats argue for higher minimum wages. Republicans respond by citing all of the evidence that higher minimum wages are harmful. Democratic voters get charged up and swing voters conclude that Republicans are heartless. It is the gift ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504395

In The Washington Post today, I argue that our country is in the grip of a miasma of political correctness – erasing all symbols of our past that do not conform to modern values we share today. This impulse to wipe away history is Stalinist. Just like Joseph Stalin ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504396

“Workers wages have been flat for decades.” It’s a common talking point on the left, especially among unions. But how you measure earnings and inflation can have a big effect on those numbers. Real earnings for men, deflated by the consumer price index, ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504397

A recent article for War on the Rocks and a Center for a New American Security report diagnose problems with the National Security Council (NSC) decision-making process and offer recommendations for reforming the process in the next administration. Both make some good points but don’t address ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504393

Groucho Marx used to say that he was not crazy about reality, but that it was still the only place to get a decent meal. The sooner the Greeks and their political elites return to reality and abandon the fantasy of a radically better deal with the Troika that would ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504392

Donald Boudreaux has done us the favor of writing a popularized primer on the foundational thought of the great economist, Friedrich Hayek. His timing is good. For sadly, as Vaclav Klaus, the free-market president of the Czech Republic from 2003 to 2013, says in the book’s foreword: “State interventionism is ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504388

If Scandinavia didn’t exist, the left would have to invent it. Overall, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden are known as nations that combine big government with good economic growth. Low levels of inequality and poverty with high levels of innovation. Social democratic models for America, some Democrats suggest.


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504391

There’s an unfortunate tendency among some emerging markets to treat foreign direct investment like a personal or collective slush fund. Investors recognize it’s a risk, and pull out when leaders work in concert with corrupt judges and officials in order to fleece businessmen or change the law to disadvantage them.

What ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504389

Laurence McDonald of ConvertBond.com tweets some International Monetary Fund data on Greece’s pension system:

• 2013: Retirement age 62, receive 60% of final salary
• 2011: Retirement age 55, receive 80% of final salary

So yes, Greek pensions have gotten less generous. But how does that compare to US Social ...


July 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1504390

From an equity research report issued to investors by global investment banking and wealth management firm William Blair on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) – “Price Increases Have Begun Early in Third Quarter” (received privately):

• In our weekly survey of ten of Chipotle’s markets, we found the company implemented ...


July 6, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1504383
There's theory and there's practice. There's also practical matters even if theory and practice are in alignment.

People keep emailing me stories that Greece can and will print euros, so it will never run out of money. Such stories have been running for years actually.

Let's take ...


July 6, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1504382

I hiked the Crabtree Falls loop with the (following Tim's nomenclature) youngest daughter of environmental economics (ydee) on Friday. The Falls were very crowded but if you actually do the 1.7 miles of the 2.5 mile loop (instead of heading back the way you came), you ...


July 6, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1504381

From an equity research report issued to investors by global investment banking and wealth management firm William Blair on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) – “Price Increases Have Begun Early in Third Quarter” (received privately):

• In our weekly survey of ten of Chipotle’s markets, we found the company implemented ...


July 6, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1504322
Construction workers take a break during work on the National Mall in April. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Businesses are hiring at a solid pace, as shown by Friday’s ...


July 6, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1504321

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday that Joshua Rosenberg will become its chief risk officer and executive vice president effective July 16, replacing Sandra Krieger, whose retirement was announced earlier this year.

Mr. Rosenberg is a veteran of the bank, joining as an economist in 2001. Before that, ...


July 6, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1504320
At the end of each year, I postTen Economic Questions for the coming year. I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2015 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it ...


July 6, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1504319
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July 6, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1504318
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July 6, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1504317
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July 6, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1504307

July 6, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1504306

WWII Panther tank seized from pensioner’s cellar

It was to get the tank out of the cellar, so hard that modern tanks were needed.  Then there is this:

It seems the tank’s presence wasn’t much of a secret locally. Several German media reports mention that residents had seen ...


July 6, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1504305
(July 6, 2015 02:09 PM, by David Henderson) On numerous occasions, Benito Mussolini identified his economic policies with "state capitalism"--the exact phrase that Vladimir Lenin used to usher in his New Economic Policy (NEP). Lenin wrote: "State capitalism would be a step forward as compared with the present... (1 ...


July 6, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1504301
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, China is doing everything in the textbook to ignite a "bubble."

I dislike that usually undefined term, which carries a lot of normative baggage. But there are a set of steps that governments often take unwittingly and are later criticized for. ...


July 6, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1504300
It's quite rare for me to agree with economist Paul Krugman on much of anything, or him with me.

Today, I think Krugman is essentially correct with his New York Times Op-Ed on Ending Greece’s Bleeding.

Europe dodged a bullet on Sunday. Confounding many predictions, Greek ...


July 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1504253

What should Greece do now?:

Ending Greece’s Bleeding, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Europe dodged a bullet on Sunday. Confounding many predictions, Greek voters strongly supported their government’s rejection of creditor demands. ...

A “yes” vote in Greece would have condemned the country to years more of suffering under ...


July 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1504252

Jesse Rothstein at the WCEG:

The Great Recession and its aftermath: What role do structural changes play?: Overview The last seven years have been disastrous for many workers, particularly for lower-wage workers with little education or formal training, but also for some college-educated and higher-skilled workers. One explanation is ...


July 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1504250
Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to BKFS, 4.96% of mortgages were delinquent in May, up from 4.77% in April. BKFS reported that 1.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.91% in May 2014.

This gives ...


July 6, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1504251
The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.0%, up from 55.7% in May. The employment index decreased in June to 52.7%, down from 55.3% in May.Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2015 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®


July 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1504248
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July 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1504249
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July 6, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1504247
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July 6, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1504246
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the New York Times:

Reporting on the decline in teenage employment in the ...


July 6, 2015, 11:33 am, 1504244

I say bad science and if you don't share data you should be outed as a jerk. Nicole Janz:

I recently read a blog post by statistician Andrew Gelman, in which he commented on authors unwilling to share their data: “I’m not accusing [them] of scientific misconduct in not sharing ...


July 6, 2015, 11:33 am, 1504243
In the one factor model of ability, the best chess player would be the best boxer. Would Zuckerberg have been a great economist? Here is a direct quote from the New York Times, where he talks about what research questions interest him: Source

"The Facebook chief responded, “I’m ...


July 6, 2015, 11:03 am, 1504192

We haven’t stopped having good ideas, but those we do have aren’t spreading as quickly as they once did.

So argues the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in its latest attempt to explain the slow growth of productivity in the years leading up to and following the financial crisis. Its ...


July 6, 2015, 10:44 am, 1504190
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July 6, 2015, 10:44 am, 1504191
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July 6, 2015, 10:04 am, 1504185

July 6, 2015, 9:33 am, 1504182

|Peter Boettke|

Steven Kates has an interesting essay atLiberty Matters addressing what was the conventional wisdom in "macroeconomics" at the time of John Stuart Mill, how that was transformed by John Maynard Keynes, and what was the consequences as a result. In Kates's narrative, knowledge was lost ...


July 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1504128

After Greece’s rejection of its creditors’ bailout terms, the Obama administration returns to a familiar position: prodding the Greeks and their European neighbors to reach a deal but struggling to sway the deeply entrenched sides.

For months, U.S. officials have pushed Greece and its creditors toward what they called a “pragmatic compromise.” If ...


July 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1504127

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, July 6, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Blackstone’s Take: For ECB, Summertime Again Means Crisis Time In Rebuke to Europe, Greeks ...


July 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1504126
It’s not unusual to see claims that American incomes have gone nowhere for decades and decades, or that the middle class has seen no improvement in its standard of ...


July 6, 2015, 8:44 am, 1504125
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July 6, 2015, 8:34 am, 1504124
The concept of building “optimal” portfolios—maximizing return and minimizing risk–is a foundational concept in quantitative finance. Unfortunately, it’s not terribly practical. The problem, as many researchers have demonstrated over the years, is the elusive aspect of developing reliable estimates of return and risk. Mere mortals are notoriously ill-suited for such ...


July 6, 2015, 8:34 am, 1504123
Teaser:

With ...


July 6, 2015, 8:04 am, 1504120
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 215 of the 1997 Johns Hopkins University Press edition of H.L. Mencken’s indispensable 1956 collection, Minority ...


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504115

And which party, pray tell, do you think the governor belongs to?


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504116

Republican candidates ought to run all day long on reforming the FDA.


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504114

By Representative Devin Nunes. Stomach-churning to read but important.

Please tell me once more the fairy tale about how "Government is the name we give to things we do together." (Jonah Goldberg has it exactly right: "The whole point of a free society is to reduce the ...


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504113

Nice, balanced discussion by AEI's James Pethakoukis. (Link via Marginal Revolution.)


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504112

That's University of Alabama-Birmingham researcher Edward Archer referring to U.S. Government sponsored research on nutrition.

Exercise for the reader: how much other government-sponsored research could be described precisely the same way?


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504111
Jason Bram and Matthew Ploenzke



For at least the past few decades, New York City’s economy, both its booms and busts, have been driven primarily by ...


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504110
With the problems in Greece now leading the news, this old article by the great Milton Friedman is worth (re)reading. (Martin Feldstein made similar arguments at the time in this article.)


July 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1504109

Ask a well-educated person which country boasts the largest equity market and you’ll usually get the right answer: the United States. Ask which country has the second largest market and you’re likely to get a range of answers: Japan? Britain? Germany?

The answer is China. In terms of annual trading volume, ...


July 6, 2015, 7:23 am, 1504108

Just a short note on Greece because at the moment I’m concentrating on writing revision guides.

For several years I have felt that Greece would be better off to leave the Eurozone. This is partly due to economics, but also partly an intuition – that there is no greater recipe for ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504065
The New Orleans metro region was the only one to post an increase in the jobless rate, to 6.3% in May from 5.9% a year earlier.


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504066
Protesters wave EU flags during a rally demanding Greece remain in the eurozone, outside Greek Parliament in Athens on Tuesday. FOTIS PLEGAS G./EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

Greece has ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504069

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, July 1, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Fallout Contained So Far Following Greek Default Fischer: Rates to Increase Gradually Fed’s ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504064

 

A roofer works on a home in the Briar Chapel community in Chapel Hill, N.C. Construction spending hit a new high in May. GERRY BROOME/ASSOCIATED PRESS

U.S. ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504067
Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard. REUTERS

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard on Wednesday pushed back against industry complaints that post-crisis reforms to financial regulation are reducing market ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504068

In a worst-case scenario of a Greek exit from the eurozone, the risks of contagion to other countries in the single currency area are less elevated than in 2010-11, but it could “easily” weaken the upturn, said Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Wednesday.

“Yet, such a shock could lead to increased ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504063
The June jobs report, due out Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, could confirm that the U.S. economy is strengthening, despite rising global turmoil.


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504059
Jobs, wages, labor-force participation and more.


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504060

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, July 2, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Jobs Report Seen Confirming Fed’s Growth Narrative Brainard: Little Evidence of Strains in ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504061
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speaks to supports in Athens after elections in January.  MILOS BICANSKI/GETTY IMAGE

Alexis Tsipras may be about to fulfill the very vision ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504062
RICARDO ARDUENGO/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Greece isn’t the only country warning that it can’t pay its creditors. The government of the U.S. commonwealth of Puerto Rico said Monday that it ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504056

The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in June, which together with a drop in the number of Americans in the labor force reduced the official unemployment rate to 5.3%. The solid hiring gains follow a mild deceleration in growth earlier this year, underscored by downward revisions to hiring numbers ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504058

The U.S. economy created 223,000 jobs in June. WSJ’s Justin Lahart breaks down the employment report and explains the mixed messages behind the headlines.

U.S. employers added 223,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 5.3%. U.S. employment has now increased for 57 consecutive ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504054
If the past week brought a flood of data—including a mixed report on June labor markets—this one's as dry as a California reservoir. As Greece remains the focus for investors, here's what to look for on the U.S. economy.


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504057
The Federal Reserve can be seen from in between trees on the National Mall. CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES

The Labor Department‘s June employment report, released Thursday, broadly ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504055
The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. ZUMA PRESS

The European Central Bank on Thursday increased the number of government-backed agencies whose securities it buys ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504050

After Greece’s rejection of its creditors’ bailout terms, the Obama administration returns to a familiar position: prodding the Greeks and their European neighbors to reach a deal but struggling to sway the deeply entrenched sides.

For months, U.S. officials have pushed Greece and its creditors toward what they called a “pragmatic compromise.” If ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504051
Key numbers from a report on Greek debt as the country faces a critical referendum.


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504052
Vitor Constancio in Riga earlier this year. He said in Vilnius on Friday that it was difficult to speculate on Greece “no” vote scenarios. Associated Press

VILNIUS, ...


July 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1504053
Vitas Vasiliauskas, governor of Lithuania’s central bank, in Vilnius last year. Bloomberg News

VILNIUS, Lithuania—Central banks must remain focused while interest rates are low and be prepared ...


July 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1504049
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July 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1504048
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July 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1504047

Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth of Stanford University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on matching markets. Examples include marriage, matching kidney donors to kidney recipients, and students to schools in cities that allow choice in their public school systems. Roth also discusses ...


July 6, 2015, 6:34 am, 1504046
● Greece votes no. Now what? ● For starters, the finance minister resigned… ● French Finance Minister says Greece must now make the first move… ● In any case, Greece will have tough time remaining in the euro… ● Meanwhile, eurozone investor confidence rises… ● And European economic sentiment remains ...


July 6, 2015, 5:33 am, 1504043

Kind of reflects my feeling: a plague on both their houses.

Even better: Greeks vs. Germans was anticipated years ago by Monty Python.


July 6, 2015, 5:33 am, 1504042
The overheated Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have lost 29 and 32 per cent respectively over the past three weeks following 7-year highs reached on June 12.

Instead of welcoming a much needed correction, Chinese brokerages and the Bank of China agreed to prop up the market.

Stimulus ...


July 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1504011

One of the nicer things ever said about the kinds of analysis we do here at Political Calculations recently surfaced over at the ChicagoBoyz blog, as Grurray took on the challenge of explaining the unique brand of stock market forecasting we do.


July 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1504010

July 6, 2015, 4:05 am, 1504009

From his Facebook page:

So Greece said no to a plan that was no longer on the table. Paul Krugman and Jeffrey Sachs celebrate the decision. They hope to get a debt write-down for Greece. I honestly do not understand their position. To me, the Greek debt is pretty ...


July 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1503964
The Labor Department released its June jobs report—an important one, coming six years after the end of the recession—and the reviews were decidedly mixed. Here's a look at some of the highlights.


July 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1503963
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July 6, 2015, 2:05 am, 1503962

One striking feature of the Thursday labor market report was the mix of declining unemployment — now down to 5.3 percent — and continuing sluggish wages, not to mention low rates of price inflation; read Neil Irwin.  Normally we would expect all the demands for those new hires ...


July 6, 2015, 2:04 am, 1503961
(July 6, 2015 12:16 AM, by David Henderson) I was reminiscing today with a friend about jobs we had when we were in high school and college. We had both worked in a kitchen for a big restaurant--he in Philadelphia and I at a resort in Minaki, Ontario... (0 ...


July 6, 2015, 1:03 am, 1503940

While eyes are on developments in Greece (and rightly so), I thought it would be useful to spend a moment on the uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy’s course (not that I’m the first to point out).

The wild gyrations in the Chinese stock market are displayed in Figure 1; ...


July 6, 2015, 12:44 am, 1503939

The financial crisis brought with it many challenges, both to prevailing disciplinary tenets, and for research and policy more generally. This column outlines the lessons that can be drawn from the financial crisis – issues like financial market failures, macro-prudential policy, structural changes of the financial system, and the European ...


July 6, 2015, 12:34 am, 1503938
Teaser:

The ...


July 6, 2015, 12:04 am, 1503936
(July 5, 2015 10:18 PM, by Scott Sumner) The Greeks have voted no in today's referendum, which makes it more likely (though not certain) that Greece will leave the euro. Some economists believe that this action would help the Greek economy. Devaluation would be an expansionary monetary shock,... (1 ...