Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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- Recent Entries


October 26, 2014, 5:03 am, 1357786

October 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1357785
More than 90% of federal employees say they are willing to put in extra effort to get their work done, but far fewer are satisfied with their jobs, pay or the agencies for which they work, according to an annual survey released Friday about the federal workforce.


October 26, 2014, 4:05 am, 1357784

It is from Japan:

The Yokohama District Court sentenced a former Japanese college employee on Monday to two years in prison for producing guns with a three-dimensional printer.

Yoshitomo Imura, 28, a former employee of the Shonan Institute of Technology, was found guilty of violating laws that strictly restrict the possession of ...


October 26, 2014, 2:05 am, 1357762

Libby Nelson reports:

It’s common to hear that teachers should be paid better — more like doctors and lawyers. In 2009, the Equity Project, a charter school in New York decided to try it: they would pay all their teachers $125,000 per year with the possibility of an additional bonus.

The typical ...


October 26, 2014, 2:04 am, 1357761
(October 26, 2014 02:13 AM, by David Henderson) Here's the next installment from "An Unintended Case for More Capitalism," my long review in Regulation of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century: How does Piketty handle this serious problem? [The problem that his proposed tax on capital would... (0 COMMENTS)


October 25, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1357750
The Growth Accounting crew wants to talk about the coming slowdown in China's economic growth. As I walk UCLA's campus, I see thousands of Chinese students enrolled seeking to learn and planning to return home. What is the net effect of this investment in human capital on China's future ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357740

The European Central Bank’s increasingly desperate battle to prevent the eurozone from sliding into deflation suffered a fresh setback in October, as businesses cut their prices at the fastest rate since early 2010.

Some of Europe’s biggest companies have been roiled by weak pricing power, noting that as one factor ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357739
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

If you’re good with a scalpel and willing to move, Kansas could be the place for you.

Surgeons in the Sunflower State make more—when adjusting for cost ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357738
A Chinese worker gathers up sheep’s wool after it was processed and bleached at a factory near Zhangzhou, China. Getty Images

A 10% increase in China’s minimum ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357737
The time frame around Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s inflation goal is looking increasingly fuzzy. Bloomberg News

The magic number was “two” when the Bank of ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357741

A majority of risk managers at North American financial institutions are worried that the growing wealth gap poses a risk to the financial system.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association and FICO, the credit analytics firm, polled bank risk managers on the consequences of inequality during their quarterly survey. ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357742

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 23, 2014:

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Highlights

Douglas’ Take: Global Growth Worries Echo Across the Pond U.S. Agencies Approve Relaxed Mortgage Rules


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357745

LONDON—A senior Bank of England official Thursday pushed back against critics who claim central bank policies only benefit the wealthy.

Those critics say ultralow interest rates and central-bank asset purchases have fueled a surge in asset prices without spurring durable economic growth, benefiting the rich yet doing little for the wider ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357744

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a second consecutive month, signaling policymakers will stick with a tight stance as an emerging-market selloff weakens the lira and inflation remains stubbornly high.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357743

The Bank of Japan now sees a much bigger possibility of inflation slipping below 1%, pushed down by falling crude oil prices, according to people familiar with the central bank’s thinking, a development that could rekindle market speculation for additional easing.

While the BOJ recognizes that lower oil prices are ultimately ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357736
The German economy’s strong focus on the car industry is also a risk, says Clemens Fuest, director of the Centre for European Economic Research. “If this market stops growing ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357730

If you saw a public-opinion poll that had a 15.7% margin of error, you probably wouldn’t take it too seriously. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, had a respectable 3.1% margin of error for registered voters.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357729
New research studied whether the cost of a wedding and the marriage’s duration were related. Many interpreted the data as “cheap weddings make for long-lasting marriages.” Not necessarily.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357727

How’s the housing market doing? The answer is that it depends on your time frame.

Looking back against 2011, when prices and sales hit bottom, the market is clearly improved.

Compared with last ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357735
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Figures released on Friday showed U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Here are five things of note.

#1: A Respectable Performance

The U.K. economy was 0.7% larger in the third quarter than in the ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357726
The main event next week will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting, when it is widely expected that the Fed will announce the end of bond-buying.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357728
Dropping energy prices—a big positive for the economy—are filtering through recent economic data. Here are five ways gasoline prices have been a factor in recent reports.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357733
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, center, took more than two weeks off before the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 23. Associated Press

How does ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357734

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, October 24, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Blackstone’s Take: ECB Hopes Its Credibility Can End Europe’s Banking Stress Fed’s 2015 Stress Test ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357732
Congress and the president put off the hard choices of what spending to cut and what to increase. “We seem to be drifting into the changes,” CBO Director Douglas ...


October 25, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1357731

Home sales rose to their highest annual pace in September in six years, but the new-home market is still depressed by historical standards.

To get a sense of just ...


October 25, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1357725
I have vanished for a while but now I'm back to offer a few thoughts.

1. The Ebola case in NYC offers an interesting test of self protection theory. When the sick doctor checked into Bellevue there was a sudden surge in Bellevue Staff taking sick days. ...


October 25, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1357716

Heightened economic uncertainty has attracted much recent attention. Policymakers repeatedly emphasise uncertainty as a key factor driving the last two recessions – in particular the depth and length of the Great Recession. This column proposes asymmetric hiring rules as a mechanism that generates endogenous and joint movements in macro and micro ...


October 25, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1357715
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How worried should we be about the eurozone? Is the single currency area, the weakest link in the global economic chain since the crisis, about to...


October 25, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1357678

Loren Adler and Adam Rosenberg report:

…the disproportionate role played by prescription drug spending (or Part D) has seemingly escaped notice. Despite constituting barely more than 10 percent of Medicare spending, our analysis shows that Part D has accounted for over 60 percent of the slowdown in Medicare benefits since 2011 ...


October 25, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1357677
Brad DeLong responds to Paul Krugman’s post on The Profits-Investment Disconnect. Why are profits high, but investment low? Brad DeLong says… “Profits are not high now because demand is high, throughput is high, and capacity is being fully used. Profits are high now because the labor share is unusually low. ...


October 25, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1357675

Shale pioneer and “petropreneur extraordinaire” Harold Hamm (Continental Resources CEO) has a great op-ed in today’s Investor’s Business Daily titled “Fracking Revolution Cuts Prices, Drives A Stake Through OPEC’s Heart.” Mr. Hamm outlines some of the important, and yet frequently ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1357656

Dietz Vollrath:

Scale, Profits, andInequality, Growth Economics: After my post last week on inequality, I got a number of (surprisingly reasonable) responses. I pulled one line out of a recent comment ... because it encapsulates an argument for *not* caring about inequality.

“Gates and the Waltons really did probably add ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1357655
The key report this week is Q3 GDP on Thursday.

There will be an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday.

----- Monday, October 27th -----
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for September. ...


October 25, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1357654

Late yesterday, a Federal Judge issued a temporary stay against a New Jersey plan that would have allowed sports betting to go forward in the state starting this weekend:

A federal judge on Friday blocked New ...


October 25, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1357650

1. The Danish nudge.

2. Clone your dog in Korea for 100k.

3. China’s strangest buildings.

4. There is no great stagnation, unbundling your breakfast edition.

5. Kevin Drum health update, we all wish him well.

6. I agree with David Denby, *Fury* ...


October 25, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1357649
The main point (if any) is that wonkblog without Ezra Klein is still excellent. Matt O’Brien wrote an excellent post on what’s wrong with Europe. It includes an excellent intro to Krugmanian macro and a description of the problem. I had two tiny comments. O’Brien discusses “structural reform” well, but ...


October 25, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1357648
China eased purchase restrictions last month ending its four-year campaign to contain home prices. And what a ridiculous campaign it was. Prices are down less than 1% this month and less then 1% year-over-year.

Bloomberg reports China Home-Price Drop Spreads as Easing Doesn’t Halt Fall.

Prices ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357627

LONDON—A senior Bank of England official Thursday pushed back against critics who claim central bank policies only benefit the wealthy.

Those critics say ultralow interest rates and central-bank asset purchases have fueled a surge in asset prices without spurring durable economic growth, benefiting the rich yet doing little for the wider ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357625

The Bank of Japan now sees a much bigger possibility of inflation slipping below 1%, pushed down by falling crude oil prices, according to people familiar with the central bank’s thinking, a development that could rekindle market speculation for additional easing.

While the BOJ recognizes that lower oil prices are ultimately ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357626

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a second consecutive month, signaling policymakers will stick with a tight stance as an emerging-market selloff weakens the lira and inflation remains stubbornly high.


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357624

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 23, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter

Highlights

Douglas’ Take: Global Growth Worries Echo Across the Pond U.S. Agencies Approve Relaxed Mortgage Rules


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357623

A majority of risk managers at North American financial institutions are worried that the growing wealth gap poses a risk to the financial system.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association and FICO, the credit analytics firm, polled bank risk managers on the consequences of inequality during their quarterly survey. ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357622

The European Central Bank’s increasingly desperate battle to prevent the eurozone from sliding into deflation suffered a fresh setback in October, as businesses cut their prices at the fastest rate since early 2010.

Some of Europe’s biggest companies have been roiled by weak pricing power, noting that as one factor ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357617
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Figures released on Friday showed U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Here are five things of note.

#1: A Respectable Performance

The U.K. economy was 0.7% larger in the third quarter than in the ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357616

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, October 24, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Blackstone’s Take: ECB Hopes Its Credibility Can End Europe’s Banking Stress Fed’s 2015 Stress Test ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357618
The German economy’s strong focus on the car industry is also a risk, says Clemens Fuest, director of the Centre for European Economic Research. “If this market stops growing ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357620
A Chinese worker gathers up sheep’s wool after it was processed and bleached at a factory near Zhangzhou, China. Getty Images

A 10% increase in China’s minimum ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357615
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, center, took more than two weeks off before the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 23. Associated Press

How does ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357621
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

If you’re good with a scalpel and willing to move, Kansas could be the place for you.

Surgeons in the Sunflower State make more—when adjusting for cost ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357619
The time frame around Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s inflation goal is looking increasingly fuzzy. Bloomberg News

The magic number was “two” when the Bank of ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357614
Congress and the president put off the hard choices of what spending to cut and what to increase. “We seem to be drifting into the changes,” CBO Director Douglas ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357608
The main event next week will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting, when it is widely expected that the Fed will announce the end of bond-buying.


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357613

Home sales rose to their highest annual pace in September in six years, but the new-home market is still depressed by historical standards.

To get a sense of just ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357609

How’s the housing market doing? The answer is that it depends on your time frame.

Looking back against 2011, when prices and sales hit bottom, the market is clearly improved.

Compared with last ...


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357610
Dropping energy prices—a big positive for the economy—are filtering through recent economic data. Here are five ways gasoline prices have been a factor in recent reports.


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357612

If you saw a public-opinion poll that had a 15.7% margin of error, you probably wouldn’t take it too seriously. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, had a respectable 3.1% margin of error for registered voters.


October 25, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357611
New research studied whether the cost of a wedding and the marriage’s duration were related. Many interpreted the data as “cheap weddings make for long-lasting marriages.” Not necessarily.


October 25, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357600
...Cliff Claven was in The Empire Strikes Back. My worlds have collided. Mind blown.


October 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1357591
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 24, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

It was the fourth time in 2014 for the FDIC to close a bank on back-to-back ...


October 25, 2014, 10:04 am, 1357589
(October 25, 2014 09:50 AM, by Scott Sumner) Back in the 1980, I believed the Fed needed to target inflation or NGDP, and if they did so the problem of high inflation could be solved. These views were widely mocked by people on both the left and the... (0 COMMENTS)


October 25, 2014, 10:04 am, 1357588
Back in 2007 the state of Florida changed the way to insure beach properties and is mentioned at Angry Bear here. Reuters reports here here and Waters edge crisis. SEASIDE SOCIALISM Breakneck development at the shore has trapped Florida in a costly Sisyphean effort to maintain its perpetually eroding beaches. ...


October 25, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357568
A


October 25, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357567
Excerpts from a research piece by economist Kris Dawsey at Goldman Sachs:

US data have generally been solid since the last FOMC meeting, with a few exceptions. However, concern about downside risks to global growth increased—echoed by Fed communications—while financial market volatility rose considerably. The market-implied date of the ...


October 25, 2014, 8:34 am, 1357566
● Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values By Lawrence A. Cunningham Q&A with author via ValueWalk Q: What inspired you to write this book and what are some of its key implications? A: For one, it celebrates Berkshire Hathaway’s 50th anniversary under Warren Buffett’s leadership. And, for the ...


October 25, 2014, 8:05 am, 1357563

The rematch starts in November, but it is by no means obvious that the champion Carlsen is favored.  Anand is separated from his Indian well-wishers and relatives (which helps him), he has been playing well lately, and he feels he has nothing to lose at this point.  It ...


October 25, 2014, 8:04 am, 1357562
(Don Boudreaux)

The Free To Choose Network’s new program, Suffer No Fools – a wonderful documentary of life (so far!) of my great colleague Walter Williams – airs on Tuesday, October 28th, at 6:00pm (and again at 12:00am on Oct. 29th) on two Tucson public-television stations: KUAT, channel 6, and ...


October 25, 2014, 8:04 am, 1357561
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 67 of the 2007 Liberty Fund edition of Ludwig von Mises’s 1949 magnum opus, Human Action:

It is impossible to understand the history of economic thought if one does not pay attention to the fact that economics as such is a challenge to the conceit of ...


October 25, 2014, 7:33 am, 1357560

Long but very interesting profile of the Eagles's coach.


October 25, 2014, 6:44 am, 1357551
A


October 25, 2014, 6:44 am, 1357550
A


October 25, 2014, 5:33 am, 1357548

Future politicians or university professors, only cuter.


October 25, 2014, 5:33 am, 1357547



Source of graph: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.



(p. A1) WASHINGTON -- Is a family ...


October 25, 2014, 5:03 am, 1357542

October 25, 2014, 4:05 am, 1357541

This year China is set to pay an interest bill of about $1.7tn, an amount not far short of India’s entire GDP last year ($1.87tn) but larger than the economies of South Korea, Mexico and Indonesia.

That is from James Kynge at the FT, there is more here.


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357535

If you saw a public-opinion poll that had a 15.7% margin of error, you probably wouldn’t take it too seriously. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, had a respectable 3.1% margin of error for registered voters.


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357537
Congress and the president put off the hard choices of what spending to cut and what to increase. “We seem to be drifting into the changes,” CBO Director Douglas ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357538
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, center, took more than two weeks off before the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 23. Associated Press

How does ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357539

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, October 24, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Blackstone’s Take: ECB Hopes Its Credibility Can End Europe’s Banking Stress Fed’s 2015 Stress Test ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357536

Home sales rose to their highest annual pace in September in six years, but the new-home market is still depressed by historical standards.

To get a sense of just ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357534
New research studied whether the cost of a wedding and the marriage’s duration were related. Many interpreted the data as “cheap weddings make for long-lasting marriages.” Not necessarily.


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357531
The main event next week will be the Federal Reserve policy meeting, when it is widely expected that the Fed will announce the end of bond-buying.


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357532

How’s the housing market doing? The answer is that it depends on your time frame.

Looking back against 2011, when prices and sales hit bottom, the market is clearly improved.

Compared with last ...


October 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1357533
Dropping energy prices—a big positive for the economy—are filtering through recent economic data. Here are five ways gasoline prices have been a factor in recent reports.


October 25, 2014, 2:05 am, 1357530

So says one new paper on PubMed, by de Ridder D, Kroese F, Adriaanse M, Evers C.:

Three experimental studies examined the counterintuitive hypothesis that hunger improves strategic decision making, arguing that people in a hot state are better able to make favorable decisions involving uncertain outcomes. ...


October 25, 2014, 12:34 am, 1357525

Mises Weekends: Jeff Deist and Patrick Barron address the issue of monetary imperialism.


October 25, 2014, 12:34 am, 1357524

Liberty-loving people are right to be appalled by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. However, just about every evil in the legislation has already been inflicted on the market through 50 years of state destruction of the healthcare market.