Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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- Recent Entries


October 30, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1361034
Hilary Rosen: It is now possible to be married in several states where if you came to work the next day and announced you were married, you could be fired for being gay.


October 30, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1361033
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October 30, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1361032
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October 30, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1361031

Almost two weeks ago now, the Delaware Supreme Court handed down its decision over J.P. Morgan's mistaken termination statement in the ...


October 30, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1361030

One can make the case that in a thoroughly decentralized and anarchistic (and therefore, more free) society, persons may find themselves in a state of practical quarantine because private owners of airlines, airports, lodging facilities, and even communities with private security may ...


October 30, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1361029

Ben Kramer-Miller writes at Seeking Alpha:

Summary

A series of newsletter articles and shorter essays designed for the layperson interested in libertarian ideas and free market thought. The book is highly entertaining and extremely accessible to people of all backgrounds. Rothbard’s bluntness is appreciated in ...


October 30, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1361027

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released new state crude oil production data today for the month of August, and one of the highlights of that monthly report is that oil output in America’s No. 1 oil-producing state – Texas – continues its phenomenal, eye-popping rise. Here are some details ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360965
European Pressphoto Agency

Economic growth was more robust than expected in the third quarter, with the economy growing at a 3.5% pace due partly to stronger defense spending ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360966

The economy has been on a roller coaster ride in 2014.

The year started with largest contraction since World War II that wasn’t part of a recession, followed by a roaring rebound, ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360964
Bloomberg

Market participants say the Federal Reserve’s latest changes to a program aimed at controlling short-term interest rates show the central bank is edging ever closer to the day ...


October 30, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1360963
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October 30, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1360960

Michael Pollaro writing at Forbes.com reexamines the implilcations of the ending of Quantitative Easing policy by the Federal Reserve: “The lion’s share of the supposed economic strength we see today is both artificial and unsustainable because it is built on malinvestments born out of the monetary largesse underwritten by ...


October 30, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1360959

Oakley, Mi. is barely a town at 300 people, only one streetlight and, until recently, one police officer. The one cop was good at his job, reports Vocativ’s M.L. Nestel, until he was forced to step down after getting caught stalking a teenage girl.

In 2008, new chief Robert Reznick made ...


October 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360954

The Canadian Institute for Health Information has released its 2014 edition of health spending data - National Health Expenditure Trends, 1975 to 2014 – and the numbers seem to show a continuing trend towards slower growth of health expenditures in Canada.

For 2014, total health spending in Canada is ...


October 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360953
In his latest Global Strategy Report, Albert Edwards at Societe Generale discusses "earnings season" which he calls "cheating season".

We have always found that swings in analyst earnings expectations mirror the economic cycle quite well, but because of the weekly frequency, swings in analyst earnings optimism often ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360891
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The C-Note was no longer on the A-list in 2014.

The U.S. government’s printing of the $100 bill fell sharply in the fiscal year that ended Sept. ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360892

October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360885

Here is the full text of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, released Wednesday:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360883

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the end of its long-running bond-buying program. The central bank also stuck to an assurance that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time.” Economists largely expected the end of the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, as it ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360886

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360884

The end of QE3 may signal a watershed moment in Federal Reserve communications: The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement is finally getting shorter.  Today’s 707-word statement was the shortest in more than a year, and 188 words shorter than the statement in September.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360889

 

Rachael Heffner, profiled in a Wall Street Journal article about student debt in June, rented a room in her parents’ basement with her boyfriend.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360882
The nation on Thursday gets its first look at how the U.S. economy fared during the third quarter, a period in which fears of a global growth slowdown steadily mounted, even against a backdrop of firm domestic demand.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360890

The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance has been a lot more effective at keeping long-term rates down and stimulating the economy than its three bond-buying programs, says Eric Swanson, an economist at the University of California, Irvine, who until recently was a researcher at the San Francisco Fed.

The central bank’s expected ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360888

Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams of sitting in a Star Trek-style chair, staring at a bank of electronic screens.

But he isn’t imagining exploring strange new worlds or seeking new life and new civilizations. This captain wants to warp through the alien galaxy that is the global economy. ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360887
Texas had 14 metro areas with jobless rates of less than 5%, led by Midland, Texas at 2.6%. Getty Images

Nearly one-third of the 372 metropolitan areas ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360876

Janet Yellen, the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve in its 100-year history, said Thursday the economics profession, which is dominated by white males, could benefit from a more diverse range of views.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360875
The U.S. economy’s expansion was aided by trade, which boosted growth as imports fell. Getty Images

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% rate in ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360881
Tight government budgets had been a drag on U.S. economic growth for several years. Getty Images

For the first time in a while, Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360873
European Pressphoto Agency

Economic growth was more robust than expected in the third quarter, with the economy growing at a 3.5% pace due partly to stronger defense spending ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360874

The economy has been on a roller coaster ride in 2014.

The year started with largest contraction since World War II that wasn’t part of a recession, followed by a roaring rebound, ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360877
Here are key numbers from the Commerce Department’s report on Thursday.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360879
The Bank of Japan is trying to achieve stable price growth of 2%. Reuters

The Bank of Japan is set to release its latest three-year ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360880

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to end its bond-buying program helped moved  the needle of formal opposition at the central bank from the camp of officials opposed to its ultra-easy credit policies to the group wanting them to continue for a long time to come.


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360878

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 30, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen Surprises With Willingness to Displease Doves Fed Ends Bond Buys, Sticks to ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360872
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 25 October

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 19-25 October 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 5.4 percent to 69.4 percent. ...


October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360871
Josh Bivens: For the past six months GDP has been growing at a rate of 4.1%. If sustained, the recovery would clearly be shifting into a higher gear. But, sadly, there's not a lot of evidence it will be sustained.


October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360870
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October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360868
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October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360869
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October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360867
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that US GDP grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in
the third quarter of 2014. Combined with the strong 4.6 percent showing in Q2, ...


October 30, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1360861

Source: The Economist

Sean Corrigan writes: 

The Economist Discovers the Entrepreneur.

In its latest edition, in a piece entitled ‘Monetary Policy: Tight, Loose, Irrelevant’, the ineffably dire Ekonomista considers the work of three members ...


October 30, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1360860

Coming in Monday’s Mises Daily, Patrick Barron will explore the moral hazard that often plagues collective security organizations like NATO. Why be careful, responsible, and restrained with your own defense when you can get the taxpayers in a foreign country ...


October 30, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1360854
Last Week the Huffington Post reported Ebola.com Sells For More Than $200,000 -- Including 19,000 Shares Of Cannabis Sativa Stock.

Two Las Vegas entrepreneurs attempting to sell the rights to Ebola.com succeeded in selling to the highest bidder -- literally.

Chris Hood and Jon Schultz paid ...


October 30, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1360853

1. Who’d a-Thunk It? Middle-class Americans can’t afford to live in liberal cities? Yes, left-leaning metros like San Francisco tend to have worse income inequality and less affordable housing.

2. Who’d a-Thunk It II? Restaurants will be hurt by the $15 per hour minimum wage that is expected to pass ...


October 30, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1360852
Nadege Jassaud, economist at the IMF, writes an entry on Vox about Italian banks: ownership structure, corporate governance, and asset quality. Her main points:

1.The recently released ECB balance sheet assessment highlighted nine Italian banks that failed the asset quality review (AQR) and stress tests – before ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360788

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 30, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen Surprises With Willingness to Displease Doves Fed Ends Bond Buys, Sticks to ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360787
Here are key numbers from the Commerce Department’s report on Thursday.


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360789
The Bank of Japan is trying to achieve stable price growth of 2%. Reuters

The Bank of Japan is set to release its latest three-year ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360784

The economy has been on a roller coaster ride in 2014.

The year started with largest contraction since World War II that wasn’t part of a recession, followed by a roaring rebound, ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360785
The U.S. economy’s expansion was aided by trade, which boosted growth as imports fell. Getty Images

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% rate in ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360786

Janet Yellen, the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve in its 100-year history, said Thursday the economics profession, which is dominated by white males, could benefit from a more diverse range of views.


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360783

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That combines with a 4.6% annual growth rate now reported for the second quarter, giving us an average growth rate for the last six months that is solidly ...


October 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1360782
From housing economist Tom Lawler: M.D.C. Holdings: Net Orders Up, Orders per Community Down; Margins Fall on Higher Incentives

M.D.C. Holdings reported that net home orders in the quarter ended September 30, 2014 totaled 1,081, up 17.0% from the comparable quarter of 2013. Net orders per active ...


October 30, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1360781
Josh Bivens: For the past six months GDP has been growing at a rate of 4.1%. If sustained, the recovery would clearly be shifting into a higher gear. But, sadly, there's not a lot of evidence it will be sustained.


October 30, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1360779
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October 30, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1360780
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October 30, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1360778
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October 30, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1360777
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October 30, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1360776
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a deceleration in growth relative to August’s 0.5% gain. Compared with a trio of consensus estimates based on recent surveys ...


October 30, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1360775

Via the BBC: US grows at annual rate of 3.5% in third quarter

The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department has said.

That is a slowdown from the 4.6% growth rate of the April-June quarter, but economists say that was a ...


October 30, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1360771

Roy Cordato has written an insightful piece on Obamacare at the Carolina Journal, demonstrating that the “right” to health care granted by Obamacare is really a “legal obligation” to purchase health care insurance:

For decades pundits have been debating whether people have a ...


October 30, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1360770

Gross Domestic Product has been reported to be an unexpectedly high 3.5% in the third quarter (on an annual basis). However the growth was led by a “surprisingly” high increase in defense spending and a reduction in the trade deficit (which accounts for 2% of the 3.5%). The last ...


October 30, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1360769

October 30, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1360768
(October 30, 2014 11:44 AM, by Scott Sumner) Tyler Cowen often has posts entitled "A very good sentence." Here Tyler dishes up one of his own: Yes, it is a big mistake to assume Say's Law always holds but it is an even bigger mistake to think it... (0 COMMENTS)


October 30, 2014, 11:33 am, 1360767


October 30, 2014, 11:33 am, 1360766

Thank goodness that "low cost electricity" is not the penultimate goal in some parts of the world:

These are rough times for carbon taxes, aimed at mitigating climate change. Australia recently repealed ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360704
The U.S. economy’s expansion was aided by trade, which boosted growth as imports fell. Getty Images

The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5% rate in ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360703

Calculated Risk:

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360702
Earlier the DOL reported:

In the week ending October 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 283,000 to 284,000. The 4-week moving average was 281,000, ...


October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360701
Josh Bivens: For the past six months GDP has been growing at a rate of 4.1%. If sustained, the recovery would clearly be shifting into a higher gear. But, sadly, there's not a lot of evidence it will be sustained.


October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360700
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360699
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360698
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October 30, 2014, 10:44 am, 1360697
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October 30, 2014, 10:34 am, 1360696
The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period. Economic activity expanded 3.5% in Q3, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports — comfortably above the consensus forecast’s 3.0% estimate, according to Econoday.com’s survey. Meanwhile, today’s weekly ...


October 30, 2014, 10:05 am, 1360692

According to a Wall Street Journal article posted online this morning, the Federal Reserve chair(wo)man Janet Yellen expressed that the “economics profession … could benefit from a more diverse range of views.” Delivering introductory remarks at a conference, Yellen stated:

Did the economics profession recruit and promote the individuals best ...


October 30, 2014, 9:33 am, 1360690

Or: "Should Finance People be allowed out unaccompanied by a macroeconomist?".

If the central bank is doing its job right, monetary policy ought to appear to be irrelevant.

The Economist says (HT Mark Thoma) "Interest rates do not seem to affect investment as economists assume", and this means that monetary ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360629

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, October 30, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen Surprises With Willingness to Displease Doves Fed Ends Bond Buys, Sticks to ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360627

Janet Yellen, the first woman to lead the Federal Reserve in its 100-year history, said Thursday the economics profession, which is dominated by white males, could benefit from a more diverse range of views.

“Did the economics profession recruit and promote the individuals best able to bring the energy, the ...


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360628
Here are key numbers from the Commerce Department’s report on Thursday.


October 30, 2014, 9:03 am, 1360626
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2014, ...


October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360622
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360624
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360625
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October 30, 2014, 8:44 am, 1360623
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October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360621
It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment. In particular, the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 has tumbled substantially over the past week, settling at a level yesterday (Oct. 29) that prevailed before the ...


October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360620

If a British aerospace company gets its way, you could one day have a chance to fly in a passenger plane where the windows are replaced by wraparound view screens that show you what’s outside the plane all ...


October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360619

While the world has been spending the last several months paying attention to everything from Ukraine to the rise of ISIS to Ebola, there’s been something interesting going on in world oil markets. Starting roughly in June, the per-barrel price of ...


October 30, 2014, 8:05 am, 1360618

It is by Eva Vivalt and is called “How Much Can We Generalize from Impact Evaluations?” (pdf).  The abstract is here:

Impact evaluations aim to predict the future, but they are rooted in particular contexts and results may not generalize across settings. I founded an organization to systematically collect ...


October 30, 2014, 8:05 am, 1360617

Here is Jody Lanard and Peter M. Sandman on the risks of an Ebola pandemic in the developing world:

The two of us are far less worried about sparks landing in Chicago or London than in Mumbai or Karachi.

Do read the whole thing, via Andrea Castillo.


October 30, 2014, 8:04 am, 1360616
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 38-39 of the manuscript of Deirdre McCloskey‘s extensive and insightful review of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century; (quoted here with Deirdre’s kind permission) (original emphasis; footnote excluded):

The usual way, especially on the left, of talking about poverty relies on the percentage distribution ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360613

The "microbiome" continues to be the new hotness in things dietary.

See also "An apple a day could keep obesity away".


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360612

"How I Rewired My Brain to Become Fluent in Math:Sorry, education reformers, it’s still memorization and repetition we need.

"The best way to teach kids math is not in a classroom".

Lists of independent facts without a network of connections are hard to ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360610

Dang clever.

Kempf is the unlikely founder ofAdvancing Eco Agriculture, a consulting firm established in 2006 to promote science-intensive organic agriculture. The entrepreneur’s story is almost identical to Zook’s. A series of crop failures on his own farm drove the 8th grade-educated Kempf to school himself ...


October 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1360611

Absolutely. MayaMacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

What was needed then and is still needed now is a plan–not for short-term austerity but to address our medium- and long-term debt situation. Policies need to be phased in gradually and designed to support the ...


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360609
This prediction is based on estimates of the real cost of living, known as purchasing power parity or PPPs which according to this FT article "are recognised as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates". PPP theory takes into account ...


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360608
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an example of an oligopoly colluding overtly to fix the price of a barrel of oil - currently there are 12 members and according to OPEC they control 81% of crude oil reserves. One of OPEC's main aims is to “ensure stable ...


October 30, 2014, 6:44 am, 1360545
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October 30, 2014, 6:34 am, 1360544
● NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe | Wall Street Journal Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown. ...


October 30, 2014, 6:05 am, 1360542

The Federal Reserve has finally ended its quantitative easing programs. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has pursued what seemed like an endless policy of asset purchases. As recently as September 2008 the monetary base in the US was just a hair over $800 bn. Today this ...


October 30, 2014, 5:23 am, 1360539

Q2: Why are there millions of people unemployed even when the economy is booming?

During periods of strong economic growth, we can often experience high rates of unemployment. Firstly, there may be structural unemployment. This occurs when the unemployed are unsuited ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360477

Now that we've had to go to some effort to work out how the median household income in the U.S. has evolved over the last several months from payroll tax collection data, we're going to put those estimates to work today to get a ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360476

October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360474

Tim Duy:

FOMC Recap, by Tim Duy: In broad terms, the FOMC meeting concluded as I had expected. To the extent there were any surprises, they were on the hawkish side. Or, I would say, hawkish mostly if you believed the events of ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360475

In case you just can't get enough of Larry Summers talking about secular stagnation:

Reflections on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis', by Larry Summers, Vox EU: The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in ...


October 30, 2014, 4:44 am, 1360473
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October 30, 2014, 3:33 am, 1360469

Three new important energy milestones were reached recently, based on energy data released this week by the Energy Information Administration:

1. US oil production increased last week to 8.97 million barrels per day (bpd), which is the highest weekly level amount of domestic crude oil production in the 32-year history of ...


October 30, 2014, 3:03 am, 1360414
The Bank of Japan is trying to achieve stable price growth of 2%. Reuters

The Bank of Japan is set to release its latest three-year ...


October 30, 2014, 2:44 am, 1360413
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October 30, 2014, 2:05 am, 1360412

That is the new Foreign Affairs piece by Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Treisman, and they argue that matters have gone strikingly well and are relatively normal.  Here is one excerpt:

Newspapers overflowed with accounts of soaring mortality amid the stress of transition. On average, however, life expectancy rose from ...


October 30, 2014, 12:04 am, 1360360
(October 30, 2014 12:24 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Every large, unselective group includes some villains. Say whatever you like about the average moral caliber of Christians, atheists, Democrats, Republicans, plumbers, comic book fans, or Albanians. The fact remains that each of these groups contains some awful people. While... (1 COMMENTS)


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360299

Capital flows to emerging markets have been very volatile since the Global Crisis. This has kindled debates on whether – and how – to better manage cross-border flows. In this column, the authors examine the role of capital account restrictions in taming destabilising capital flows. The results indicate that capital ...


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360297

Sound corporate governance is essential for a well-functioning banking system and the integrity of financial markets. This column discusses the corporate governance of Italian banks, its regulatory framework, and the specific challenges arising from the role played by foundations and large cooperatives. Although Italian banks have recently made progress in ...


October 29, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1360298

The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in the Vox eBook “Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures” – explains the idea. It argues that a decline in the full-employment real interest rate coupled with ...


October 29, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1360296

The quasi-gold standard promoted by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames in their new book has more in common with the Bretton Woods system than with the classical gold standard.


October 29, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1360295

Austerity is nothing more than allowing the private sector more control over what it produces. Those who argue against austerity are claiming that government will more wisely spend, invest, and save than private persons and firms.


October 29, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1360294
This article was originally published in the Columbia FDI Perspectives series of the Columbia Center for Sustainable Investment, #131, September 29. I have left it largely unchanged, except for adding a link and a comment, and correcting a grammatical error. As I discussed in an earlier Perspective,[1] the use ...


October 29, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1360232

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to end its bond-buying program helped moved  the needle of formal opposition at the central bank from the camp of officials opposed to its ultra-easy credit policies to the group wanting them to continue for a long time to come.


October 29, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1360231
From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 2.7 percent on October 28

From Chico Harlan at the WaPo: Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. economy

Many ...


October 29, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1360230

Nobel laureate and emeritus professor at MIT Robert Solow sat down with EconTalk host Russ Roberts this week to discuss growth theory and the challenges of macroeconomics.

Now let's hear from you. Use the prompts below for comments here at EconTalk, or use them to start your ...


October 29, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1360227
You’d think that, by now, people would understand that, once it is on the web, there is no point locking the barn door after the cat has gotten out of the bag. This is today’s hot meme The Cleveland Plain Dealer filmed (and posted) a joint interview with current (and ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360163

Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams of sitting in a Star Trek-style chair, staring at a bank of electronic screens.

But he isn’t imagining exploring strange new worlds or seeking new life and new civilizations. This captain wants to warp through the alien galaxy that is the global economy. ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360162
Texas had 14 metro areas with jobless rates of less than 5%, led by Midland, Texas at 2.6%. Getty Images

Nearly one-third of the 372 metropolitan areas ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360160

Here is the full text of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement, released Wednesday:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360161

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360158

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the end of its long-running bond-buying program. The central bank also stuck to an assurance that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time.” Economists largely expected the end of the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, as it ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360159

The end of QE3 may signal a watershed moment in Federal Reserve communications: The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement is finally getting shorter.  Today’s 707-word statement was the shortest in more than a year, and 188 words shorter than the statement in September.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360156
Tight government budgets had been a drag on U.S. economic growth for several years. Getty Images

For the first time in a while, Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the ...


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360157
The nation on Thursday gets its first look at how the U.S. economy fared during the third quarter, a period in which fears of a global growth slowdown steadily mounted, even against a backdrop of firm domestic demand.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360155

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to end its bond-buying program helped moved  the needle of formal opposition at the central bank from the camp of officials opposed to its ultra-easy credit policies to the group wanting them to continue for a long time to come.


October 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1360154
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Yesterday the Census Bureau released the “Residential Vacancies and Homeownership” Report (commonly referred to as the Housing Vacancy Survey, or HVS) for the third quarter of 2014. The HVS is based on a relatively small sample of housing units, still uses an outdated ...


October 29, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1360153
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October 29, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1360152
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October 29, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1360149

Mises Daily Wednesday by Frank Shostak:

Economics Nobel Prize winner Jean Tirole still clings to the old neoclassical model “perfect competition” and monopoly, in which there is no place for entrepreneurship, and which fails to grasp that consumers benefit more from a ...


October 29, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1360143
Goodbye Retail Associates, Hello Robots

The future of shopping has arrived, and it's not human.

Not only do robots cost less than humans, they don't complain, they speak multiple languages, and most importantly, by scanning aisles they know where every item is in the store and can take ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360082

Next Tuesday, Nevada voters will decide whether or not to give the go-ahead to the margin tax—an economically damaging tax that falls in the gross receipts tax family. Gross receipts taxes (GRTs) only exist in a handful of states across the country (and even that’s too many).

Gross receipts ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360081

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the end of its long-running bond-buying program. The central bank also stuck to an assurance that short-term interest rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time.” Economists largely expected the end of the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing, as it ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360079
Tight government budgets had been a drag on U.S. economic growth for several years. Getty Images

For the first time in a while, Federal Reserve isn’t worried about the ...


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360080
The nation on Thursday gets its first look at how the U.S. economy fared during the third quarter, a period in which fears of a global growth slowdown steadily mounted, even against a backdrop of firm domestic demand.


October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360078

And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas (based on a Tax Foundation analysis). Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. ...


October 29, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1360077
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October 29, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1360074

To develop an intuition for our main result, note that the equilibrium private saving behavior must be resistant to rare mutants.

That is from the new Robson and Szentes AER paper, “Biology and Social Discounting,” which argues that the nature of sexual reproduction causes private discount rates to rise ...


October 29, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360072
Sanctions or not, NASA uses Russian-made engines to propel rockets.

Yesterday, just seconds after takeoff, a NASA Antares rocket with a Russian-made engine exploded on takeoff. The mission was to carry supplies to the orbiting space station.

Today, the Guardian reports that Russian rocket manufacturer insists ...


October 29, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1360071
Inquiring minds may wish to slog through today's FOMC Press Release on Monetary Policy but it's really not worth the time it takes to read it.

Here are a few details, generally expected
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for ...


October 29, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1360070

Photo Credit: DonkeyHotey

September 2014October 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic ...