Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

- Recent Entries


August 21, 2014, 12:05 am, 1322090

There is a new paper out by them:

Thomas Piketty’s recent book, Capital in the Twenty First Century, follows in the tradition of the great classical economists, Malthus, Ricardo and Marx, in formulating “general” laws to diagnose and predict the dynamics of inequality. We argue that all of these ...


August 21, 2014, 12:04 am, 1322089
(August 21, 2014 12:10 AM, by David Henderson) I often criticize Paul Krugman's writing on economics. But I also give him credit where credit is due. And credit is due for his excellent recent column on war. Read the whole thing. Some excerpts and my comments: If you're... (0 COMMENTS)


August 21, 2014, 12:04 am, 1322088

Reading Jon Chait this morning:

With predictable fury, supply-siders have denounced this heresy [that Reagan-era supply-side policies might not be optimal today, even granting that they were in 1980]. You can get a flavor of the intra-party debate in columns appearing in places like Forbes or The Wall Street Journal, ...


August 20, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1322086
The NY Times offers some suburban sociology as it profiles the NYC suburban town of "Old Greenwich". Has this coastal town learned any lessons from Hurricane Sandy? Has its residents in low lying areas now taken precautions so that the next storm causes less damage?

Here is a ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322053

It’s no secret that the apartment sector has been on a tear.

A big share of July’s gain in housing construction came from the multifamily sector, which tends to be fairly ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322052

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a study this week showing the average middle income family will spend $245,340 to raise a child to the age of 18 — even before paying for college tuition.

A cool quarter million to raise a child sounds like a horrifying amount of money. Who ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322055

More Americans than ever before are tapping government benefits. But this time the baby boomers may be responsible for the slight uptick.

Nearly half of Americans, 49.5%, lived in a household where at ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322056

BRASILIA–True to its habit of offering a steady flow of rosy economic forecasts, the Brazilian government is expecting the second half of 2014 will be better than the first, a top official said Monday.

Brazil’s economy expanded by a meager 0.2% in the first quarter of this year compared with ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322057

Central-banking fans have a new tool to help them plan the rest of the year.

The Journal has created an interactive Global Central Banks Calendar, a database of coming releases by major central banks including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322051
Bloomberg News

Japan’s exports perked up in July in line with firmer global demand. But there’s little chance the nation will return any time soon to its status ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322054

Big American companies have long complained that an estimated $1 trillion in cash is trapped overseas—all because the U.S. corporate tax rate of 35% keeps companies from bringing it home. A new report from a California tax-law professor counters that argument, calling it an “overstatement” advanced by large, ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322046

Just like Christmas dinners, monetary policy meetings at central banks are often pictured as gatherings full of suspense, conflict and heated debates.

Indeed, the decision on whether to raise interest rates after a period of cheap money has traditionally sparked heartfelt disagreement, and did so again at the Bank of England’s ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322050
The Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in Sydney. Bloomberg News

Investors have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322047

A recent spike in subprime auto lending does not look excessive, considering gains in the broader car industry, according to economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Overall lending in the auto sector approached an eight-year high in the second quarter while mortgage lending hit a 14-year low—confounding economists ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322045

Most states in the U.S. have experienced at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline in the years since the national recession ended, according to new data from the Department of Commerce. Two consecutive quarters of contracting gross domestic product is a common rule of thumb for a recession (though ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322049

August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322048

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second half of 2013 before unexpectedly contracting early this year. But growth late last year was uneven across the nation, with some energy-rich states leading the pack while economies slowed in New England and on the Plains.

That’s according to new data released ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322044

South Korea’s boom in exports to China appears to be finally fizzling out.

In an unusually candid trade report early this month, the trade ministry said it was “concerned” about a sustained fall in exports to China, Seoul’s biggest trade partner. Shipments shrank 7% in July from a year earlier, the ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322043

Today the Philadelphia Fed released coincident indices for the states and the US. Wisconsin outperforms Kansas — a very low bar — and yet has lagged all her neighbors.

Consider first Wisconsin compared to Kansas (like Wisconsin an ALEC darling) and Minnesota and California (not ALEC darlings).


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322042
From Andrew Ross at the San Francisco Chronicle: Household income hasn't shared in recovery

As of June, median annual household income was 4.8 percent below December 2007, when the recession began, dropping from $56,000 to $54,000. Going back to the good old days, it's down 5.9 percent from January ...


August 20, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1322041

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has proposed a law authorizing the executive to reroute payments on the restructured bonds out of New York, and to offer all bondholders local-law bonds on 2010 exchange terms. All the buzz has been about the swap. But there is no swap on the ...


August 20, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1322037
(August 21, 2014 12:04 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, you may recall, was dubbed Operation Iraqi Freedom. Eleven years and over 100,000 civilian deaths later, the name is dark comedy. The replacement Shiite-dominated government is a close ally of the Iranian theocracy,... (1 COMMENTS)


August 20, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1322017
A


August 20, 2014, 8:05 pm, 1322015

Mises Institute Associated Scholar Jacob Huebert speaks on the war against ridesharing programs and just how damaging they are for ordinary people. For those who are unfamiliar with ridesharing, it is nothing more than private individuals providing rides to people in exchange for money. It’s a free-market taxi service, not ...


August 20, 2014, 8:05 pm, 1322014

Nicolas Cachanosky follows up his Mises Daily article on the legal history of Argentina’s default with a look at the recent effort to blame the default on everyone but the Argentinian government:

Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Guzman have a recent piece at Project Syndicateabout the ...


August 20, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1322013

August 20, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1322012

Here’s a shortened version of Daniel Bier’s excellent article in The Freeman, “By the Numbers: How Dangerous Is It to Be a Cop?”:

Defenders of police militarization such as that on display in Ferguson, Missouri, often claim that ...


August 20, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1322011

There’s a pretty interesting and stark contrast between two completely different approaches to saving wildlife in Africa (rhinos, elephants, lions, leopards and African buffaloes, etc.): a) ban the private ownership and all commercialization of wildlife except for eco-tourism vs. b) allow the private ownership of wildlife and legalize commercial activities ...


August 20, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1321968

[T]here is probably no one more gung ho for Obamacare repeal than [Senate Republican nominee] Tom Cotton. He talks about it all the time. So he obviously would roll back the Arkansas version of the state’s Medicaid expansion, right?


August 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1321965

Steven Horwitz

Libertarian social media have been all atwitter this afternoon with aLenore Skenazy post at Reasonthat reports the results of a Reason-Rupe poll showing that:

A whopping 83 percent of Americans think there should be a law that prohibits kids 9 and under from playing at the park ...


August 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1321964
Turnout in some Los Angeles elections is so low that LA Considers Giving Citizens Lottery Tickets if they Vote.

With as few as 8% of registered voters showing up to vote in some recent elections, the Los Angeles Ethics Commission has urged the City Council to ...


August 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1321963

From Reason.tv:

Hairbraider Melony Armstrong just wanted to earn an honest living. Armstrong had learned how to braid hair from an renowned expert in Atlanta, and she had the drive to open her own salon in Tupelo, Mississippi. What she didn’t have was a ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1321902

We recently published a map showing how far $100 would take you in different states. For example, in states with low costs of living, like Arkansas, $100 had the same sort of purchasing power that $115 would have in an average state.

We got a lot of requests – ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1321901

Ed Kleinbard, a law professor at the University of Southern California, has a new paper in which he claims that the recent wave of corporate inversions is not about competitiveness, even though the U.S. has the third highest corporate tax rate in the world combined ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1321900

Most states in the U.S. have experienced at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline in the years since the national recession ended, according to new data from the Department of Commerce. Two consecutive quarters of contracting gross domestic product is a common rule of thumb for a recession (though ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1321899
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in July.

Comments from CR: Tom Lawler has been sending me this table every month for several years. I think it is very useful for looking at the ...


August 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1321898
A


August 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1321894
Ed Lazear has a very nice short column, Job Turnover Data Show Lots Of Churning, Little Job Creationon Investor's Business Daily.

Modern labor economists see employment and unemployment as a search and matching process with a lot of churn. The popular impression, echoed in most media discussion, ...


August 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1321893
In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that Argentina Cannot Selectively Default on a small group of hold-outs demanding full payment on otherwise restructured government bonds.

The problem with the ruling is that if Argentina pays the vulture fund full value, it will have to pay all the ...


August 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1321892

Check out the top pieces we’re reading today on the economy, technology, family, and more.

1.) Keep rates low until the hidden jobless return to work, advises Adam Posen in FT. “Persistent unemployment will do more lasting damage than a rise in inflation.”

2.) IEEE profiles the start-up Pristine, which ...


August 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1321891

Uber hasn’t built a new kind of nuclear power plant or reengineered the measles virus to cure cancer. Instead, it has developed a piece of software that helps connect people seeking automobile transportation with people willing to supply automobile transportation.

It’s a potentially dangerous innovation — at least to local taxicab ...


August 20, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1321890

About 1 1/2 years ago, I wrote a seven-part series on investing in insurance stocks.  It is still a good series, and worthy of your time, because there aren’t *that* many writers freely available on the topic.

This particular article deals expands on ...


August 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1321828

Just like Christmas dinners, monetary policy meetings at central banks are often pictured as gatherings full of suspense, conflict and heated debates.

Indeed, the decision on whether to raise interest rates after a period of cheap money has traditionally sparked heartfelt disagreement, and did so again at the Bank of England’s ...


August 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1321827
Note: Most participants want to see more data - and several are still concerned that inflation is too low.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29-30, 2014. Excerpts:

With respect to monetary policy over the medium run, participants generally agreed that labor ...


August 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1321826
A


August 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1321825
A


August 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1321824

WE ARE covering the 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences, held in a small, pretty Bavarian town. It is a unique event, with about half the living Nobel laureates in attendance. Each gives a talk about their research and then leads a small class to a select group of young ...


August 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1321823

Here is the proposed law rerouting payments under the restructured, now-defaulted Argentine bonds away from New York. Contrary to some reports, it is not a swap, just a unilateral attempt at firing Bank of New York Mellon and substituting Banco Nacion in Buenos Aires (or an alternative, if voted by ...


August 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1321820


August 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1321819

Not unexpectedly, Colorado’s illegal marijuana market has been reported as thriving. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward. First, it is a new and highly regulated market making it difficult to supply products and keeping legal marijuana prices high. Also, steep taxes on legal marijuana exceeding 30% also are ...


August 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1321817

Here is an update from Leonid Bershidsky:

Among the 28 EU members, public spending reached 49 percent of gross domestic product in 2013, 3.5 percentage points more than in 2007.

There is more detail at the link, via Garett Jones, Humanist by way of Walt Whitman, Civilizationist by ...


August 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1321818

August 20, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1321816
(August 20, 2014 02:52 PM, by David Henderson) On August 4, while I was on my vacation, my beloved transportation economics professor, George Hilton, died. Co-blogger Art Carden has rightly singled out one of his best articles in a post earlier today. Here are some of my reminiscences... (0 COMMENTS)


August 20, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1321815
(Don Boudreaux)

Regular Cafe patron Jon Murphy sent the following letter to Paul Krugman.  I asked Jon for permission to post the letter in full here at Cafe Hayek.  Jon kindly granted that permission.

Dear Dr. Krugman:

Your editorial “Why We Fight Wars” (New York Times, Page A18, August 18 2014) is ...


August 20, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1321814

I have been writing about the Effective Demand rule for monetary policy lately. The version that I have been showing uses a labor share anchor, which is a projection of where labor share will be at the natural limit of the business cycle. Labor share has always tended toward ...


August 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1321811

The Canadian Medical Association has been having its annual meetings this week in Ottawa and in honor of the event, let me put out another international comparison on physicians using data from the OECD Health Statistics 2013. The first chart (Figure 1) is a basic resource availability measure ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1321748

The United States, Chile, and Hungary are the only three OECD countries that have not cut their corporate tax rate since 2000. Hungary and Chile, who had the two lowest rates in the OECD in 2000, have both increased their rates to 19 and 20 percent, respectively.

Germany has cut ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1321749

We're in Minneapolis this week for the annual meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), where 6,000 state legislators, staffers, and experts gather. I'll be on an NCSL panel event on State Tax Reform with Michael Leachman of CBPP, at 3:30pm today in M100DE, so be sure to attend if ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1321747

It is well known that the United States has the highest corporate income tax rate among the 34 industrialized nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). However, it is less well known how the United States stacks up against all of the countries and other tax ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1321746

A recent spike in subprime auto lending does not look excessive, considering gains in the broader car industry, according to economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Overall lending in the auto sector approached an eight-year high in the second quarter while mortgage lending hit a 14-year low—confounding economists ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1321745


August 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1321744

ONCE thought of as a staid trade, economists are increasingly repackaging themselves for public consumption. The rise of data journalism has helped catapult practitioners of the dismal science into the public domain. However, the gap between economists’ thinking and public opinion is oftenlarge. So are economists actually able to ...


August 20, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1321742

Mises Daily Wednesday by Christopher Mayer:

The only thing worse than floating fiat currencies is fixed exchange rates based on fiat money.


August 20, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1321741

Mises Daily Wednesday by Mark Tovey:

If the apes in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes are so smart, why are they hunter-gatherers? Aren’t they smart enough to think of agriculture? They’re probably smart enough, but Austrian capital theory explains why creating a ...


August 20, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1321740
Today’s is Ron Paul’s 79th birthday. I’ve had the pleasure of knowing Dr. Paul for several years, and he is one of the most thoroughly decent, thoughtful, and humane men one could ever hope to meet. And by the way, Ron is exceedingly fit and has the energy of a 35 ...


August 20, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1321739

Forbes today profiles several Mises Institutes around the world, and features longtime friend of Mises USA,  Helio Beltrão, who is also the founder of Mises Brazil. One of the most important contributions made by other Mises Institutes is the translation of Austrian writings into other languages, including German, Portugese, ...


August 20, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1321738
(August 20, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) In response to my recent blogging about Uber and Lyft, Daniel Klein sent me this paper (gated by JSTOR) by Ross Eckert and the recently-deceased George Hilton. It's a fascinating story of rent-seeking special interests (electric streetcar and railway companies)... (1 COMMENTS)


August 20, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1321737
(Don Boudreaux)

Deirdre McCloskey will speak this evening in Chicago at the Illinois Policy Institute, and – in a first for Cafe Hayek – we’re live-streaming her talk!  The event begins at 7:45pm EDT.

Here’s the Illinois Policy Institute‘s description of the event:

Economist and historian, Deirdre McCloskey, will discuss ...


August 20, 2014, 11:33 am, 1321735

Some interesting facts……..

1. Overall, 57% of Americans think only winning players should receive trophies, while 40% say all kids on a sport team should receive a trophy according to a recent Reason-Rupe poll. By political affiliation, 66% of Republicans want only the kids who win to receive trophies, while ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1321673
The Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in Sydney. Bloomberg News

Investors have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1321672

August 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1321671

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second half of 2013 before unexpectedly contracting early this year. But growth late last year was uneven across the nation, with some energy-rich states leading the pack while economies slowed in New England and on the Plains.

That’s according to new data released ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1321670
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Reaches Highest Mark Since 2007

The last three months have shown steadily increasing demand for design services and the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is now at its ...


August 20, 2014, 10:44 am, 1321669
A


August 20, 2014, 10:35 am, 1321668

Corporate inversions are all the rage these days as U.S. businesses merge with foreign firms and then restructure the combined businesses as foreign-based corporations. That yields tax benefits and may boost their after-tax profits, but it can also leave their stockholders with unwanted capital gains and big tax bills.

As ...


August 20, 2014, 10:05 am, 1321661

A Reason-Rupee poll asked

Do you think all kids who play sports should receive a trophy for their participation, or should only the winning players be awarded trophies?

Overall, an estimated 57% Americans said that only the winning players should be awarded trophies but there were big differences according to gender, ...


August 20, 2014, 10:04 am, 1321660

Watching the nightly demonstrations and confrontations from Ferguson, I was reminded of James C. Scott’s discussion in chapter 1 of his Two Cheers for Anarchism of the role of riots, confrontations, violence and disorder in effecting social change. They don’t always, or even usually, make things better. They sometimes makes ...


August 20, 2014, 10:04 am, 1321659
(Don Boudreaux)

The Institute of Economic Affairs just published a new monograph – From Crisis to Confidence: Macroeconomics after the Crash - by my friend and former classmate Roger Koppl; Pete Boettke sings its praises here.  And here’s a slice from Roger’s own description of his tract:

A healthy economy ...


August 20, 2014, 9:03 am, 1321595

August 20, 2014, 9:03 am, 1321594

Dean Baker:

What does the Fed have to do with Social Security? Plenty: Most of the people who closely follow the Federal Reserve Board’s decisions on monetary policy are investors trying to get a jump on any moves that will affect financial markets. Very few of the people involved ...


August 20, 2014, 8:04 am, 1321593
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 87 of University of London historian Frank Trentmann’s 2008 book, Free Trade Nation; I again thank Walter Grinder for bringing this excellent study to my attention:

Free Traders realized that Tariff Reform [the early 20th-century mercantilist effort to raise tariffs in Britain] would not be ...


August 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1321590

Tal Yarkoni:

The increasing homogenization (Pythonification?) of the tools I use on a regular basis primarily reflects the spectacular recent growth of the Python ecosystem. A few years ago, you couldn’t really do statistics in Python unless you wanted to spend most of your time pulling your ...


August 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1321589

Peter Wood, so right:

Campus activism is, by and large, the world of make-believe. Whenever students occupy a president’s office, Tinkerbell is not far away. . . .

The premise behind campus activism is always the same. The college campus is a microcosm of the larger ...


August 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1321588

Great, and enhanced by this comment:

I ignore all of the rest and look only at the eyes. In the first picture there is a hope, an optimism, a joie de vivre as it were. In the second....... I see the 1,000 yard stare. That is administration.


August 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1321587
Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui

The United States has been borrowing from the rest of the world since the mid-1980s. From 2000 to 2008, this borrowing averaged over $600billion per year, which translates into U.S. spending exceeding income by almost 5.0percent of GDP. Borrowing fell during the recent ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321525

Big American companies have long complained that an estimated $1 trillion in cash is trapped overseas—all because the U.S. corporate tax rate of 35% keeps companies from bringing it home. A new report from a California tax-law professor counters that argument, calling it an “overstatement” advanced by large, ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321526

More Americans than ever before are tapping government benefits. But this time the baby boomers may be responsible for the slight uptick.

Nearly half of Americans, 49.5%, lived in a household where at ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321524

It’s no secret that the apartment sector has been on a tear.

A big share of July’s gain in housing construction came from the multifamily sector, which tends to be fairly ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321523

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a study this week showing the average middle income family will spend $245,340 to raise a child to the age of 18 — even before paying for college tuition.

A cool quarter million to raise a child sounds like a horrifying amount of money. Who ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321521
The Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in Sydney. Bloomberg News

Investors have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321522
Bloomberg News

Japan’s exports perked up in July in line with firmer global demand. But there’s little chance the nation will return any time soon to its status ...


August 20, 2014, 7:03 am, 1321520
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 15, 2014. ...

The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from ...


August 20, 2014, 6:44 am, 1321519
Much has improved in American creditworthiness since the darkest days of the recession, with one big exception: student borrowers, who are by far the fastest growing segment of troubled debtors.


August 20, 2014, 6:36 am, 1321518
Looking for recessions is an obsession for some folks. Every wobbly update, every release of bad news is a new excuse to see trouble around the next bend. But crying fire in the theater of business-cycle analysis has been a … Continue reading →


August 20, 2014, 5:33 am, 1321514

Mark Steyn argues forcefully that all police cars should have dashcams:

The most basic problem is that we will never know for certain what happened. Why? Because the Ferguson cruiser did not have a camera recording the incident. That's simply not credible. "Law" "enforcement" in Ferguson apparently ...


August 20, 2014, 5:23 am, 1321513
A hat tip to Hannah Thomas who has spotted a new info graphic on human capital produced by the Office for National Statistics. You can find it herehttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/wellbeing/human
-capi... with more supporting detail and explanation herehttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_374868.pd
f


August 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1321480

Once a quarter, about halfway through, we take a snapshot of the earnings per share that investors expect to earn in the S&P 500 over the next several quarters. Since our previous snapshot in mid-May 2014, the earnings outlook for investors has eroded ...


August 20, 2014, 4:44 am, 1321479
A


August 20, 2014, 4:05 am, 1321478

From Alison Flood at The Guardian:

A new study which found that readers using a Kindle were “significantly” worse than paperback readers at recalling when events occurred in a mystery story is part of major new Europe-wide research looking at the impact ...


August 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1321439
Bloomberg News

Japan’s exports perked up in July in line with firmer global demand. But there’s little chance the nation will return any time soon to its status ...


August 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1321438

August 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1321437

I am here today:

5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences

19-23 August 2014, Lindau, Germany

Lindau Meeting of the Laureates of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel

The 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences will provide an open exchange of economic expertise and inspire cross-cultural and ...


August 20, 2014, 2:05 am, 1321435

For context, CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio.  On that topic, 3rdMoment writes:

While I have great respect for Shiller, I don’t understand his confidence that the CAPE is likely to return to it’s historical average of around 16. There are several reasons why we might ...


August 20, 2014, 1:33 am, 1321434
A 1795 Spanish dollar, minted in Mexico, with several chopmarks
One of the most interesting things about bitcoin, ripple, and other cryptocurrencies is how ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321420
View an interactive that explores the share of first-time homeowners, by state, since 1996. WSJ

New data show that first-time home buyers aren’t playing as ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321419

Central-banking fans have a new tool to help them plan the rest of the year.

The Journal has created an interactive Global Central Banks Calendar, a database of coming releases by major central banks including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321422
Singapore’s financial district REUTERS

Asian banks are finding deposits harder to come by, posing a risk to economies increasingly dependent on credit for growth.

Year-on-year growth in monthly ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321418

BRASILIA–True to its habit of offering a steady flow of rosy economic forecasts, the Brazilian government is expecting the second half of 2014 will be better than the first, a top official said Monday.

Brazil’s economy expanded by a meager 0.2% in the first quarter of this year compared with ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321421

August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321415

It’s no secret that the apartment sector has been on a tear.

A big share of July’s gain in housing construction came from the multifamily sector, which tends to be fairly ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321417

More Americans than ever before are tapping government benefits. But this time the baby boomers may be responsible for the slight uptick.

Nearly half of Americans, 49.5%, lived in a household where at ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321414

The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a study this week showing the average middle income family will spend $245,340 to raise a child to the age of 18 — even before paying for college tuition.

A cool quarter million to raise a child sounds like a horrifying amount of money. Who ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321413
Bloomberg News

Japan’s exports perked up in July in line with firmer global demand. But there’s little chance the nation will return any time soon to its status ...


August 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1321416

Big American companies have long complained that an estimated $1 trillion in cash is trapped overseas—all because the U.S. corporate tax rate of 35% keeps companies from bringing it home. A new report from a California tax-law professor counters that argument, calling it an “overstatement” advanced by large, ...


August 20, 2014, 12:04 am, 1321410
(August 20, 2014 12:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The Case Against Education's chapter on the selfish return to education runs over sixty pages. Since I suspect that even eager readers may skim all the tables, I end with practical advice in plain English. Note: Nothing in this section... (0 COMMENTS)