May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The share of U.S. firms giving pay raises has nearly tripled since last fall, according to a new survey of business economists by the National Association for Business Economics, though official data on U.S. workers’ earnings haven’t shown any broad acceleration in wage growth.
Some 43% of the NABE members ...
Lacking any new equations, mainstream economists have resorted to timing their computers as they solve the existing ones. Meanwhile, booms and busts are brewing in the real economy. But computers that can quickly solve word problems won’t tell you much about how business ...