Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

- Recent Entries

March 25, 2017, 2:04 am, 1731667

Growers who can afford it have already begun raising worker pay well beyond minimum wage. Wages for crop production in California increased by 13% from 2010 to 2015, twice as fast as average pay in the state, according to a Los Angeles Times analysis of data from the Bureau ...

March 25, 2017, 12:34 am, 1731664
By: Laurence M. Vance

Back in 2013, Barronelle Stutzman, the owner of Arlene’s Flowers in Richland, Washington, refused to provide flowers for a gay friend’s same-sex wedding. The legal battle that ensued has now ended: The Washington State Supreme Court just unanimously ...

March 25, 2017, 12:34 am, 1731662
By: Mises Institute

Our guest on Mises Weekends is Professor Per Bylund, a man who studies entrepreneurship for a living. Why is the role of the entrepreneur — the individual who risks capital, time, ...

March 25, 2017, 12:34 am, 1731663
By: Jp Cortez

TheDunning-Kruger effectis the idea that low-ability people tend to suffer from illusory superiority. The phenomenon, first studied by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, says that people who know the least tend to overvalue their own competence, and tend ...

March 24, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1731657
(Don Boudreaux)

Gov. Doug Ducey

Mr. Ducey:

In George Will’s recent column you come across as a ...

March 24, 2017, 9:03 pm, 1731651
A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Mar 24, 2017:

• US oil rig count was up an eye-popping 21 this week to 652

• US horizontal oil rigs were up by 13 to 543
• Despite a major correction ...

March 24, 2017, 8:34 pm, 1731650
By: Per Bylund, Jeff Deist

Our guest this week is Professor Per Bylund, a man who studies entrepreneurship for a living. Why is the role of the entrepreneur—the individual who risks capital, time, ...

March 24, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1731649

The Venn diagram above was inspired by Don Boudreaux’s post on Cafe Hayek titled “This DiMicco Guy Is Precisely the Sort of Business Person ...

March 24, 2017, 7:33 pm, 1731648

The Venn diagram above was inspired by Don Boudreaux’s post on Cafe Hayek titled “This DiMicco Guy Is Precisely the Sort of Business Person Upon ...

March 24, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1731631
DeWitt Wallace Fellow James Pethokoukis discusses how failing to pass the AHCA would affect Pres. Trump's broader agenda.

March 24, 2017, 5:03 pm, 1731600

Douglas Campbell:

The Saga of Currency Unions and Trade: One of the first full papers I wrote was on currency unions and trade. I was taking Alan Taylor's field course at UC Davis, which was essentially and Open-Economy Macro History course, and the famous Glick/Rose findings that ...

March 24, 2017, 5:03 pm, 1731599

Larry Summers:

Why scrapping NAFTA would be Trump’s big gift to China: I was in Mexico Thursday seeing the Mexican president, foreign minister and finance minister and addressing a convention of bankers. The only subjects anyone is interested is the future of NAFTA and U.S. Mexican relations.

I came to Mexico ...

March 24, 2017, 5:03 pm, 1731598
Here is a report from CoreLogic: US Residential Foreclosure Crisis: 10 Years Later. There are several interesting graphs in the report, including foreclosures completed by year.

This graph for CoreLogic the Ten States with the highest peak foreclosure rate during the crisis, and the current foreclosure rate.

March 24, 2017, 4:44 pm, 1731597

Over at Dealb%k.  (BTW, I don't pick the pictures).

March 24, 2017, 4:34 pm, 1731596
By: C.Jay Engel

As the Fed continues to increase the rate of interest it pays on excess reserves,the Fed's profits that are left over are slowly going to shrink in size.Since the Fed sends its profits to the US Treasury each ...

March 24, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1731595
(Don Boudreaux)

If subsidies are generally economically beneficial – if governments ...

March 24, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1731594
Resident Fellow Marc Thiessen discusses Pres. Trump's decision to force the House to vote on the AHCA.

March 24, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1731560

One seemingly simple question is central to the debate over Republicans’ plan to replace Obamacare: What is insurance?

Republicans want to strip out the regulations in Obamacare that require some people—primarily the young, male and healthy–to pay more so that others–mostly the elderly, female and sick–pay less. Critics say Republicans ...

March 24, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1731559
The automakers will report March vehicle sales on Tuesday, April 4th.

Note: There were 27 selling days in March 2017, unchanged from 27 in March 2016.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. March Sales to Reach 17-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.61 ...

March 24, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1731558

But it is also a question of history and, more specifically, of how welfare states in the rest of the world developed alongside warfare. European welfare states began in Prussia at the end of the 19th century, when war with France required the mobilisation of a large number of ...

March 24, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1731557
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s the opening paragraph of Tim Worstall’s calling-out of Dan DiMicco for endorsing protectionism for the U.S. steel industry:

I’ve been ...

March 24, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1731556

On Wednesday, in a unanimous decision on Endrew F. v. Douglass County School District, the Supreme Court raised the bar for special education services in public schools.

Chief Justice Roberts’s opinion established that the standard for an “appropriate” education under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) is “markedly ...

March 24, 2017, 1:34 pm, 1731553
The February Issue of the Journal of Finance made it to the top of my stack, and it has a lot of good articles. The first two especially caught my attention,Who Are the Value and Growth Investors? by Sebastien Bertermeier, Larent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini, and ...

March 24, 2017, 1:33 pm, 1731552

'It's going to be an incredible pipeline, greatest technology known to man - or woman,' Trump bragged from the Oval Office.

Read more:

March 24, 2017, 1:03 pm, 1731520
The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2017 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April and May 2009, on ...

March 24, 2017, 12:34 pm, 1731519
By: Tho Bishop

The beltway Republicans are scrambling now that it seems the Obamacare replacement packageput forward for Paul Ryan and endorsed by Donald Trump can’t get enough support to get through the House. The failure of the American Health ...

March 24, 2017, 12:34 pm, 1731518

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731512

1. Who’s complacent?  Not St. George, Utah.

2. Review of David Goodhart, The Road to Somewhere, quite an interesting book, most of all for the UK.

3. Kenneth Arrow was right about information being a public good: “David Pogue tested 47 pill-reminder apps to find ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731511
(March 24, 2017 01:46 PM, by David Henderson) UC Berkeley economist Brad DeLong has written one of the best short pieces on the gains from international trade. His post is titled "Are There Benefits from Free Trade?: DeLong FAQ." He writes: Well, typically and roughly, the average import... (1 COMMENTS)

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731508

Key Points

The relatively modest, but significant, problem of several million Americans at risk of limited or no insurance coverage due to serious preexisting health conditions should and can be addressed more effectively. The Affordable Care Act’s combination of adjusted community rating, guaranteed issue, income-related premium subsidies, and a weak individual mandate ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731509
Research Fellow Benedic Ippolito discusses the healthcare bill up for vote in the House of Representatives.

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731507

In a week chock full of news, the party that found itself on the night of Nov. 8, much to its surprise, very much out of power has been having difficulty finding a way to return.

Democratic senators, urged on by the leftist blogosphere and party activists, peppered Supreme Court nominee ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731510

Every society has its rituals. Indeed, while the details vary from place to place and time to time, ritual itself is a human universal, according to anthropologist Donald Brown.

I’m a big believer in the importance of rituals. They provide an important conduit for the transmission of priorities, meaning, and ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731506

If House Republicans still can’t pass their health-care bill after postponing the vote on it, they will have three choices available.

Option one is to keep trying to modify the bill to win majority support: making it more generous to pick up moderates, or adding some deregulation to court conservatives. The ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731504
Visiting Fellow, Ramesh Ponnuru, discusses the need for Republicans to compromise if they want to repeal and replace Obamacare.

March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731505

Peter J. Wallison, co-director of AEI’s program on financial policy studies and White House counsel to President Ronald Reagan, took the time to answer some questions on the current state of US financial regulation and more.

REUTERS/Lucas ...

March 24, 2017, 11:33 am, 1731502

Apologies to those of you who have missed me the last few weeks (hi mom!) as I have recovered from taking care of some lingering neck issues from my years of head banging to 80's hair bands. I'm back on my feet (computer) and ready to go (from the confines ...

March 24, 2017, 11:03 am, 1731474
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Unemployment rates were significantly lower in February in 10 states, higher in 1 state, and stable in 39 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nine states had notable jobless rate decreases ...

March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731470
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to Rick Manning, president of Americans for Limited Government – at the end of ...

March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731471
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 151 of Texas Tech economist (and GMU Econ alum) Ben Powell’s superb 2014 book,

March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731469
by Peter Dorman (originally published at Econospeak) Fifty Shades of Yellow? Post-Truth Then and Now Simon Wren-Lewis can’t take it anymore. I’ve just read his fulminations on the blatant dishonesty of right wing media outlets in the US and the UK, untethered to any residual professional attachment to standards of ...

March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731468

For years, the protesters I have encountered at colleges have gotten their information about why I am a terrible person from the Charles Murray page at the website of the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC). For all of those years, I have ignored that material. But in the ...

March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731467

Relations between Europe and Turkey are tense. In the past weeks, Turkey has called the Netherlands “the capital of fascism” and accused Germany of “fascist actions” reminiscent of the Nazi period, after Germany cancelled political rallies aimed at gathering support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his referendum on ...

March 24, 2017, 8:34 am, 1731434

How’s that factor strategy been working for ’ya lately? That’s a topical question for a growing number of investors as “smart beta” products play a bigger role in portfolio design. You may not be drinking the factor Kool-Aid, but it’s still worthwhile to check in on these risk premia ...

March 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1731431
by New Deal democrat What’s behind stalled nonsupervisory wage growth? Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers nominally has been stuck in the +2.3% to +2.5% range (or worse) for three years.  Why? Over the weekend I was cleaning out some old graphs, and came across this one from the Atlanta Fed, ...

March 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1731432

March 24, 2017, 7:33 am, 1731426

"Quirky" is, for my money, too kind.

Related: "The worst baby names in the entire world".

March 24, 2017, 7:33 am, 1731425
Anna Snider

In May 2014, Liberty Street Economics bloggers shared a new approach for calculating the Treasury term premium as well as a link for downloading their estimates of it. It has been gratifying to see the “ACM” model (named for current ...

March 24, 2017, 6:04 am, 1731414
Via Tyler Cowen, here is a piece by David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Gary P. Pisano and Pian Shu. Cowen quoted the most important part, so let me follow his lead: The central finding of our regression analysis is that firms whose industries were exposed to a greater surge ...

March 24, 2017, 6:04 am, 1731413

Dr. Richard Sylla, the Henry Kaufman Professor of the History of Financial Institutions and Markets and a professor of economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, joins the show to discuss his new book, “Alexander Hamilton: The Illustrated Biography.” On this episode, we covered Alexander Hamilton’s role in shaping our ...

March 24, 2017, 5:34 am, 1731411

The most expensive one on this list supposedly cost $15 billion.

March 24, 2017, 5:03 am, 1731404

Not long ago, Core77's Rain Noe ordered a battery from Staples that was delivered to his home in a box that was way bigger than the battery enclosed inside.

It turns out that delivery was the unintended consequence of a decision by ...

March 24, 2017, 5:03 am, 1731402

"The destructive effects of false symmetry in reporting":

The Scammers, the Scammed and America’s Fate, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Mr. Ryan’s proposed Obamacare replacement ... is one of the worst bills ever presented to Congress.

It would deprive tens of millions of health insurance — the decline in the ...

March 24, 2017, 5:03 am, 1731403

March 24, 2017, 3:23 am, 1731399
In the hunt for productivity, the revolutionary long shot is worth the cost and risk

March 24, 2017, 2:04 am, 1731376

Recently I went to a (very good) conference.  As a number of us got off the train and waited near the platform for a ride, we immediately recognized each other as belonging to the same event, even though we had not met each other before.  We were short and ...

March 24, 2017, 2:04 am, 1731375

Let’s say you believe that a flood of forthcoming warrior-entrepreneurs will create exciting new products and earn high rates of return on their capital; associated venture capitalists will benefit too.

That might sound quite optimistic, and in one regard it is.  But the high returns also indicate that the status ...

March 24, 2017, 12:34 am, 1731369
By: Tho Bishop

The beltway Republicans are scrambling now that the Obamacare replacement packaged put forward for Paul Ryan and endorsed by Donald Trump can’t get enough support to get through the House. The failure of the American Health Care ...

March 24, 2017, 12:34 am, 1731370
By: Chris Calton

In the 1950s, Corsican gangsters such as Lucky Luciano created a mafia empire by smuggling morphine base from Turkey to Sicily, where it was refined into heroin, then shipped to France and finally to the United States. This was ...

March 24, 2017, 12:04 am, 1731368

Heralded as a Christmas miracle, the passage of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) in December 2015 marked a turning point in federal education policy. The latest reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, ESSA replaced the much-maligned No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 and returned significant control ...