Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 23, 2014, 6:05 am, 1339625

One of Ludwig von Mises’ most insightful parts of Human Action is his discussion on the reason to hold a cash balance. By using his construct of the “evenly rotating economy”, Mises shows that the only reason why an individual would not hold cash is because he is fully ...


September 23, 2014, 5:33 am, 1339622

Very interesting. One noticable thing: there were a lot more vegetables on the menu in those days.


September 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1339581

The upturn in a closely watched benchmark of Chinese factory sentiment on Tuesday eased concerns, at least temporarily, that the world’s second-largest economy is headed for a hard landing.

After a raft of bad news in August, China’s first data point in September suggested factory owners were feeling a bit better ...


September 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1339580

In previously analyzing what broke the job market in the United States, we pointed to the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (more popularly known as "Obamacare") and offered a hypothesis for why the number of part time jobs in the ...


September 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1339579

September 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1339578

Tim Duy:

Fisher on Wages, by Tim Duy: Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said Friday the US economy was threatend by higher wages. Via Reuters:

Fisher said on Friday he worries that further declines in unemployment nationally could lead to broader wage inflation. To head that off, ...


September 23, 2014, 4:44 am, 1339577
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September 23, 2014, 3:03 am, 1339526
A weaker Australian dollar will support tourism. Bloomberg News

The Australian dollar’s tumble to a seven-month low is likely to be quietly welcomed by country’s central bank, ...


September 23, 2014, 2:05 am, 1339525

Ruth Towse, Advanced Introduction to Cultural Economics.  She remains the definitive presenter of this material.

I very much enjoyed Ian Leslie’s Curious, a polyglot look at being…curious.

Richard Flanagan, The Narrow Road to the Deep North.  A moving and vibrant novel about an Australian in a ...


September 23, 2014, 2:05 am, 1339524

Why should trading be the province of humans only?:

One project is Michael Marcovici’s Rat Trader. The book describes the training of laboratory rats to trade in foreign exchange and commodity futures markets. Marcovici says the rats “outperformed some of the world’s leading human fund managers.” The rats were trained to ...


September 23, 2014, 1:33 am, 1339523
There are lots of reasons why your health care plan may have been cancelled but this one is arguably the most bizarre.



Please play the video or the following discussion will not make much sense.

Link if video does ...


September 23, 2014, 1:03 am, 1339508

Here are some economic indicators for Kansas; they indicate rising GDP but stalling real personal income (through 2014Q2), stagnant employment growth, with manufacturing employment deviating from national trends.

Figure 1: Nominal Gross State Product (blue) and personal income (red). NBER ...


September 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1339507

Historical revisionism is the process of unmasking government excuses for war and war-making.


September 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1339506

Long-term interest rates are going down, but many Fed observers, relying on expectations theory, wrongly think they should be going up. If we understand Mises and time preference, however, we can see the true trend much more clearly.


September 23, 2014, 12:34 am, 1339505
Teaser:

Long ...


September 22, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1339484
(September 22, 2014 08:38 PM, by Scott Sumner) This is good news: New Zealand's NZX 50 Index increased 1.1 percent, driven higher by power-company stocks, after John Key won a third term as prime minister. Key, a former head of foreign exchange at Merrill Lynch & Co., led... (0 COMMENTS)


September 22, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1339483
(September 23, 2014 12:08 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In 1976, 8.3% of students in U.S. public schools were officially disabled. By 2010, the disabled share was up to 13%. What on earth happened? This piece by Jay Greene and Greg Forster considers and critiques three main stories. Prepare... (0 COMMENTS)


September 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1339474

The Federal Reserve should be more proactive about ensuring U.S. inflation hits its 2% target, since undershooting that goal as the central bank has been doing recently endangers economic growth, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said.

Mr. Kocherlakota, a voter this year on the Federal Open Market Committee and arguably the ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1339473
I use the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) to track mortgage rates. The PMMS series started in 1971, so there is a fairly long historical series.

For daily rates, the Mortgage News Daily has a series that tracks the PMMS very ...


September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339472

The role of credit-fuelled property booms in the Global Crisis has received much high-profile attention in recent years. Using data on Irish small and medium enterprises, this column highlights an additional channel through which such booms can impact post-crisis growth. Firms having difficulty repaying their property-related debts divert resources away ...


September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339471

There is an urgent need to understand why many households in the US do not hold a bank account. This column argues that supply-side factors – standard bank practices that ration certain households – play a role in this. The evidence comes from the staggered interstate branching deregulation after 1994 that ...


September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339470
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September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339469
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September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339468

THIS week: The latest grim economic news from the eurozone, the future of Oracle after Larry Elison (sort of) leaves and an accounting irregularity at Tesco


September 22, 2014, 6:05 pm, 1339419

Courtesy of The Austrian Insider.


September 22, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1339418
Bidding Wars Stop

With cash-paying investors on full retreat, existing home sales dropped 1.8% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says that's a good thing because "first-time buyers have a better chance of purchasing a home ...


September 22, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1339417
While I am pleased to be quoted in this NY Times article, I'm a pinch surprised by the quote. I am a home owner in LA. I would not have made this big bet of all my life's savings if I thought that LA is doomed in the face ...


September 22, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1339416
These are notes taken from a talk given by Andrew Wolstenholme the CEO of CrossRail to a meeting of the Eton College Geography Society on Monday 22nd September 2014


September 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1339355

MONDAY

GMT ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels at 1300 GMT Bank of Israel releases a policy statement at 1600 local time (1300 GMT) New York Fed’s Dudley speaks on the economy and monetary policy in New York at 10 a.m. EDT Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks on the objectives of monetary policy in Marquette, Mich., ...


September 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1339354
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

In today’s existing home sales report, the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million, down 1.8% from July’s downwardly-revised (to 5.14 million from 5.15 million), and down 5.3% from last August’s ...


September 22, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1339352

Long-time readers of this blog know that I am an apostate of the economics discipline. When I was 17, I wanted to study something that would be useful to help make the world a better place. I thought that economics would meet that requirement, and it also seemed natural since ...


September 22, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1339351
Update appended below. —- After a two-and-a-half-month hiatus from regular blogging here—most of my few posts this summer related to my passion about animal rescue and animal welfare—I’m once again feeling like posting about politics, at least more regularly than I posted this summer. (And maybe soon I’ll once again ...


September 22, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1339350
Scott Sumner made a very important point a while back (and repeatedly since) in a post wherein he makes a bunch of other (IMO) not very good points: Income and wealth inequality data: Nonsense on stilts His crucial (and I think true) point, in my words: you can’t think coherently about inequality — ...


September 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1339343
In a concern over votes, regional government spending is on the rise. In addition, Spain Mandates "Stop the Bleeding" No More Layoffs in Public Companies.

"Stop the Bleeding" via translation ...

Nine months after the local elections, the government has begun to show signs of needing ...


September 22, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1339342
Hopefully Economics keeps moving forwards, with new ideas enriching the subject in schools and universities. You may be aware that there is a‘post-crash economics’ debate out there, with people wondering how economists got things so wrong in the lead up to the crash.I was lost for words when I ...


September 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1339280

First, it was Standard & Poor’s.  Now, Morgan Stanley weighs in on income inequality in a new report. Why are these Wall Street institutions, normally focused on macroeconomic issues directly related to gross domestic product forecasts, suddenly chiming in on the issue?

Because both firms find U.S. inequality is ...


September 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1339279

Last week’s news that the official U.S. poverty rate fell for the first time in seven years to 14.5% from 15% was greeted lukewarmly—and for good reason.

The poverty rate remains well above its prerecession level of 12.5% in 2007. Also, most economists quibble with how the rate is ...


September 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1339278
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.5% (4.0 billion vehicle miles) for July 2014 as compared with July 2013.

Travel for the month is estimated to be 266.8 billion vehicle miles.

Cumulative Travel for 2014 changed by 0.6% (10.1 ...


September 22, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1339277
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September 22, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1339276
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September 22, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1339275

And now time for something entirely different. I noticed a great new book in our list of library ...


September 22, 2014, 2:35 pm, 1339274

While we wait to see how and when the Obama Administration will use its executive authority to curb the use of corporate tax inversions, the debate continues over whether Treasury even has the power to limit the practice. In a new article in Tax Notes, Tax Policy Center senior ...


September 22, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1339273

Jess Zimmerman offers “An ingenious way to save the comments section,” if she does say so herself.

Make comments cost money.

Hear me out before you decide I’m a capitalist swine. I’m not proposing just charging to comment, which would mean the richest ...


September 22, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1339268

As a follow-up to his recent Mises Daily article on the topic, Mateusz Machaj and Tom Woods discuss the Taylor Rule, its history, and its errors.

Also here.


September 22, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1339267

The Economist ran a good article last week about the enormous difficulty of being an entrepreneur. In particular, the piece emphasizes the importance of doing away with the mythology of entrepreneurship as a life of romance, adventure, and the heroic pursuit of greatness. In reality, entrepreneurship is grueling ...


September 22, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1339266

September 22, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1339265

In 1960, 5 percent of Republicans and 4 percent of Democrats said that they would feel “displeased” if their son or daughter married outside their political party. By 2010, those numbers had reached 49 percent and 33 percent. Republicans have been found to like Democrats less than they ...


September 22, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1339261
Paul Krugman and Josh Barro are going after conservatives for their "new love affair with Canada". They claim conservatives are incorrect to view Canada's successful fiscal consolidation in the 1990s as evidence of "expansionary austerity." Here is Krugman:

Canadian austerity in the ...


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339199

Representative Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) has introduced a bill called the “CEO-Employee Pay Fairness Act.” This bill would prevent a corporation from deducting the cost of compensating CEOs if the corporation did not raise the wages of all employees that earned less than $115,000 by a specific formula ...


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339198

The Tax Foundation’s International Tax Competitiveness Index ranks the United States tax code 32nd out of 34 OECD countries. An obvious question to ask, then, is why the U.S. remains so wealthy, and so successful at creating new businesses.

A report from Harvard Business School – a survey ...


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339197

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Monday that he strongly hopes the central bank can begin to increase interest rates next year.

“I would love to be able ...


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339196

The number of mortgages made to purchase homes for owner occupants hit a six-year high last year. But don’t celebrate. Purchase loans for owner occupants were still below their 1993 level.

The


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339195

The NY Fed hopes that someday the FRBNY DSGE model will be useful for forecasting. Presently, the model has "huge margins for improvement. The list of flaws is long..." (first in a five-part series):

Forecasting with the FRBNY DSGE Model, by Marco Del Negro, Bianca De Paoli, Stefano Eusepi, ...


September 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1339194
The most important number in the NAR report each month is inventory. This morning the NAR reported that inventory was up 4.5% year-over-year in August. It is important to note that the NAR inventory data is "noisy" and difficult to forecast based on other data.

The headline ...


September 22, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1339193
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September 22, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1339192

ON FRIDAY we published a short pieceon the evidence for and against poverty traps. We discussed a paper that was recently published in theJournal of Economic Perspectives. One of the authors, Aart Kraay, submitted a response to the article, which we publish below. MrKraayis an economistin the Development ...


September 22, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1339191
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September 22, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1339188

Mises Daily Monday by Willem Cornax:

The modern health insurance industry, a by-product of government regulation and tax policy, has led to a system in which the consumer of medical services doesn’t know the costs or final prices charged ...


September 22, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1339187
(September 22, 2014 12:30 PM, by David Henderson) Kevin Drum alerts us to some unintended consequences of a law that he advocates. Over at Mother Jones, Kevin Drum has noticed that some health insurers are charging a huge co-insurance rate for HIV drugs. He writes: If all your... (6 COMMENTS)


September 22, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1339186
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s an essay that I was asked to write for the blog at Library of Law & Liberty.  Specifically, this essay – motivated by Peter Thiel’s recent piece in the Wall Street Journal - explains that what we economists still formally call “competition” is not a very competitive situation, ...


September 22, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1339185
Guest Post by Mark Jamison retired Postmaster Webster, N.C. It’s likely that I will be the last postmaster to serve the town of Webster, North Carolina. The first postmaster, Allen Fisher, began his term in 1857, shortly after Jackson County was founded and Webster became the county seat. The names ...


September 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1339182


September 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1339181
Randy Walsh and I have released a NBER Working Paper that surveys research at the intersection of environmental and urban economics. Over the last 20 years, environmental and urban economists have made great research progress and our piece highlights what we have achieved and what are the open ...


September 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1339180

The video above is a segment from “60 Minutes” last night about how the IRS is allowing criminals to ripoff the American taxpayer.  As Steve Kroft points out at the beginning of the segment, the IRS refund scam proves “once again what every con-man already ...


September 22, 2014, 11:23 am, 1339179
Here is a great enrichment opportunity for Y13 Economists, especially those looking to take the subject to university or considering a career in Finance. In association with our good friend Stuart Block from "Beyond the Bike", weare launching aninteractive day for students including:2 lectures from eminent economists Tim Harford (author ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339117

FRANKFURT—Germany’s central bank on Monday sought to dispel fears of an abrupt interruption to the country’s growth trend, though cautioned that some positive recent data were supported by one-off factors that didn’t accurately represent the state of the economy.
The Deutsche Bundesbank’s monthly report said industrial data for July were ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339116

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, September 22, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Exit Plan is Still a Work in Progress Federal Reserve Rate-Hike ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339118
Acting OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General Rintaro Tamaki speaks at OECD headquarters earlier this year.  AFP/Getty Images

Is the exchange rate the main factor determining ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339113

setSandboxHeight = function(id, height) { if ( height > 5000 ) return; document.getElementById("ifrm_" + id).height = height+ "px"; }
Over the past 20 years the average increase in spending on ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339114

New data show that household formation slowed considerably last year, a potentially ominous sign for the housing market.

Household formation is a key driver of demand for housing. When the economy stumbles and ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339115

The share of homes being purchased without a mortgage remains high, historically speaking, but it is beginning to edge down.

One-third of homes sold in July were all-cash deals, according to data from ...


September 22, 2014, 11:03 am, 1339112
The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Slightly Lose Momentum in August as Investor Activity Declines

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in August from a slight downwardly-revised 5.14 million ...


September 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1339111

Using a new, unique, and comprehensive data set that covers close to 19,000 Chinese ODI deals from 1998 to 2011, we find that in contrast to the common perception, over half of the ODI deals are in service sectors, with many of them appearing to be related to export promotion. ...


September 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1339108
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September 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1339110
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September 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1339109
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September 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1339107
Last week the Tax Foundation released its annual International Tax Competitiveness Index for 2014.

The United States ranked 32 out of 34 OECD countries surveyed. Only Portugal and France got lower ...


September 22, 2014, 10:35 am, 1339106
US economic growth will decelerate in the third quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric nowcast. Today’s revised GDP estimate anticipates an increase of 2.2% (real seasonally adjusted rate) for the July-through-September period—down sharply from the 4.2% pace in … Continue reading →


September 22, 2014, 10:35 am, 1339105
US economic activity decelerated more than expected in August, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The three-month average for the business cycle benchmark (CFNAI-MA3) declined to +0.07 for last month’s reading vs. a revised … Continue reading →


September 22, 2014, 10:35 am, 1339104

At the end of an interview with Ed Balls this morning, Sarah Monague (02h 22m in) gave us a wonderful example of the ideological presumptions of supposedly neutral BBC reporting. She asked Nick Robinson: "It's about economic credibility here, isn't it?"

What's going on here ...


September 22, 2014, 10:34 am, 1339103

Apple sold ten million new iPhones in three days:

Early sales of Apple’s new iPhones have lived up to high expectations.

The company on Monday said it sold more than 10 million of the iPhone 6 and ...


September 22, 2014, 9:33 am, 1339097
Now that 30 days have passed, I can post the whole oped from the Wall Street Journal. See previous post for additional commentary

A Few Things the Fed Has Done Right

The Fed's plan to maintain a large balance sheet and pay interest on ...


September 22, 2014, 9:33 am, 1339096

Nearly 30 years ago, the satirical Spy magazine began posing the now-familiar question – “separated at birth?” – above lookalike images of two unconnected public figures. Donald Trump was paired with Elvis Presley, Marie Osmond with Monica Lewinsky, and the ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339033
Acting OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary General Rintaro Tamaki speaks at OECD headquarters earlier this year.  AFP/Getty Images

Is the exchange rate the main factor determining ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339032

FRANKFURT—Germany’s central bank on Monday sought to dispel fears of an abrupt interruption to the country’s growth trend, though cautioned that some positive recent data were supported by one-off factors that didn’t accurately represent the state of the economy.
The Deutsche Bundesbank’s monthly report said industrial data for July were ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339034
The new iPhone 6 at an Apple Store in Palo Alto, California, on Sept. 19. Getty Images

Taiwan’s export orders have been enjoying ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339030

The share of homes being purchased without a mortgage remains high, historically speaking, but it is beginning to edge down.

One-third of homes sold in July were all-cash deals, according to data from ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339031

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Monday, September 22, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Exit Plan is Still a Work in Progress Federal Reserve Rate-Hike ...


September 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1339029
The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth decelerated in August

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.21 in August from +0.26 in July. Two of the four broad categories ...


September 22, 2014, 8:35 am, 1339028

Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. Read the Daily Deduction each Monday until then. 

California, here I come!” It’s official: Democratic Governor Jerry Brown signed into law a $330 million annual incentive program for film and television production. Feature films with budgets of $75 million ...


September 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1339026
(September 22, 2014 07:02 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) The district court of Frankfurt lifted the nationwide ban on UberPOP in Germany. UberPOP is the most controversial and most promising service Uber offers: it doesn't just connect professional drivers of black cars (as Uber indeed does) in a bigger... (0 COMMENTS)


September 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1339025
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from a speech that James Madison gave to the constitutional convention in Philadelphia on June 29, 1787:

In time of actual war, great discretionary powers are constantly given to the Executive Magistrate.  Constant apprehension of War, has the same tendency to render the head too large ...


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339021

I believe it.

A new study suggests the policy may be doing more harm than good. It finds public school students in North Carolina who gain their first regular access to a home computer between the fifth and eighth grades experience “a persistent decline in reading and ...


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339020

Foreign language fluency for native English speakers is rapidly becoming a lousy investment because of 1) big, rapid improvements in machine translation and 2) the diffusion around the world of English. But there are supposedly cognitive benefits.


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339018

Economist Emily Oster argues that because randomized studies don't reproduce the results of observational studies, for the vast majority of people vitamin supplements probably aren't beneficial.

In these trials, participants wererandomly assignedto take supplements. Because the assignment was random — and the trials were big — the ...


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339019

Philip Tetlock is updating his classic work.With advice on how to forecast with the acronym CHAMP.

Link via Marginal Revolution.


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339017
Marco Del Negro, Bianca De Paoli, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, Argia Sbordone, and Andrea Tambalotti

First in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of NewYork’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings ...


September 22, 2014, 7:23 am, 1339016

Readers Question 1) Can an economy that factors in the need for government funded public services and to offer people a living wage, and other more distributive economic strategies such as taxing the rich more, etc. Can it work ...


September 22, 2014, 7:03 am, 1338955
The new iPhone 6 at an Apple Store in Palo Alto, California, on Sept. 19. Getty Images

Taiwan’s export orders have been enjoying ...


September 22, 2014, 6:44 am, 1338954
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September 22, 2014, 6:44 am, 1338953

Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics and author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century talks to Econtalk host Russ Roberts about the book. The conversation covers some of the key empirical ...


September 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1338952

More refutation of "government is the name we give to things we do together". Why should New York residents have to pay to keep Colbert and Fallon where they were going to stay anyway?

See also "California Triples Film And Tax Credits Even As Other States Say ...


September 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1338951

"Your city. Judged."

Not for the politically correct or the overly sensitive.

I'm neither, and I laughed.


September 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1338922

Although the Federal Reserve met, issued a statement, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a press conference last week, none of it meaningfully affected the trajectory of stock prices, which continued to behave consistently with investors focused on the future quarter of ...


September 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1338921

September 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1338919

Why are conservatives are blaming the victims of the recession despite "evidence and logic" to the contrary?:

Those Lazy Jobless, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Last week John Boehner, the speaker of the House, explained to an audience at the American Enterprise Institute what’s holding back ...


September 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1338920

Tim Duy:

Hawkish Undertone, by Tim Duy: The Fed co«ntinuous to moves toward policy normalization.

Slowly. Very slowly.

They believe they are making every effort to avoid a premature withdrawal of accommodation. Every step is sequenced. And that sequencing did not allow for the removal of the considerable period language just ...


September 22, 2014, 4:44 am, 1338918

The impact of education on earnings over the life cycle is a critical factor for policy decisions ranging from education to taxation and pensions. This column exploits a unique Norwegian population panel data set to estimate an internal rate of return to additional schooling of about 10%. The standard Mincer-regression ...


September 22, 2014, 4:44 am, 1338917
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September 22, 2014, 4:05 am, 1338916

Edward Luce writes in The Financial Times:

According to William Lazonick, a scholar at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, seven of the top 10 largest share repurchasers spent more on buybacks and dividends than their entire net income between 2003 and 2012. In the ...


September 22, 2014, 3:33 am, 1338912
Strange Bedfellows

US Mideast relationships get stranger every day. The US has come to the defense or has given aid to three rather unlikely groups in the past few weeks.

Iranian Revolutionary GuardKurdish Workers Party (PKK), which directly supports the YPG, on Washington's list of proscribed terror groups"Moderates" ...


September 22, 2014, 2:44 am, 1338870
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September 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1338868

We again looked at those individuals moving into and out of the finance sector, but this time restricted the sample only to those doing a job with the same title in both the finance and non-finance sectors, focusing on generic job titles such as ‘function manager’, ‘ICT professional’, ‘secretarial’, ‘customer ...


September 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1338869

If you want to know what Japan is up against consider that Japanese RGDP has grown by 0.00% per year over the past 6 1/2 years.  In contrast, Germany, the shining star of the European economy, has grown at 0.5% per year over the past 6 1/2 years.  Then consider ...