Economics Roundtable

Calculated Risk

Read the Bill McBride interview.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


June Payroll Employment

The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Focus on the Problem

U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

- Recent Entries


June 20, 2013, 7:35 am, 1110481

The deadline for submissions is Septermber 2, 2013. You can read about the contest specifics here. Here is an overview:

The Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, in collaboration with the Foundation for Economic Education and the Charles Koch Foundation, is pleased to announce ...


June 20, 2013, 7:34 am, 1110480

I don't know about "everything": how many tedious meetings do they have?  

As for NYU's compensation practrices, the "understandably infuriated readers" mentioned in the article should really hate this: "A Dastardly Clever Scheme".


June 20, 2013, 7:34 am, 1110478
Engineering schools are prominent among the "underrated". 


June 20, 2013, 7:34 am, 1110479
Hmmm . . . sounds kinda like the occasional accident with guns. I eagerly await the Liberals' demand for more pot control


June 20, 2013, 7:24 am, 1110477
This week I was delighted to travel down to Stratford upon Avon to join the annual gathering of the BASS group of schools. BASS stands for Boys Academically Selective Schools and draws schools from a large geographical range of schools across the UK. The setting at King Edward VI School, Stratford ...


June 20, 2013, 7:24 am, 1110476
The proposed dates and locations for our popular programme of exam technique coaching & revision workshops for AS & A2 Economics in 2013/14 are now available. The details are listed below together with important information about changes in way that bookings are processed.Please note that for 2013/14, we are taking ...


June 20, 2013, 7:04 am, 1110439

See if you can tell from the following chart exactly when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spooked the more timid among Wall Street's professional traders by moving the goalposts closer for ending QE 4.0, the Fed's purchases of up to $45 billion per month ...


June 20, 2013, 6:45 am, 1110438


June 20, 2013, 6:45 am, 1110437


June 20, 2013, 6:04 am, 1110435
Retail sales had a very good month in May, breaking a sequence of disappointing numbers. Volumes and values both rose by 2.1% compared with April, largely on the back of a jump in food sales, which had been suspiciously weak....


June 20, 2013, 6:04 am, 1110434

The use of promotional cars peaked in the 1920s and ‘30s, and while World War II restricted the growth of these “rolling billboards,” they returned as a popular means of advertising in the ‘60s and ‘70s. What’s more, they’re still going strong ...


June 20, 2013, 6:04 am, 1110433

I’m getting to this a little late due to extensive travel (in South Africa now), but David Cay Johnston has a nice writeup of a recent paper on inequality based on the World Top Incomes Database. The paper, by Facundo Alvaredo et al., is important because it largely ...


June 20, 2013, 6:04 am, 1110432

by Linda Beale

The Tax Code Ain’t Nearly So Big as Often Claimed

I can’t resist pointing readers to tax professor Jim Maule’s excellent post chastising everybody–from those obviously slanted propaganda-tank tax gurus Chris Edwards (you all know him as the purported tax expert from the right-wing pseudo-libertarian Cato Institute, whose ...


June 20, 2013, 5:34 am, 1110427
. . . but some people think it's nice to live in Oklahoma: "45 Best Things About Living In Oklahoma".


June 20, 2013, 5:24 am, 1110426
Another RES short video from Bob Denham at Econ Films. The size and location of cities follows a clear pattern -- you just need to look at them from far enough away. Wen-Tai Hsu of the National University of Singapore shows this with the help of economics. This research received the Austin ...


June 20, 2013, 5:04 am, 1110387
Cash-rich Japanese firms piled up more money in the bank last year, according to data released by the Bank of Japan, an unwelcome sign for the government and the central bank.


June 20, 2013, 5:03 am, 1110386

June 20, 2013, 4:05 am, 1110384

When they are asked — and not when they are paid  — at least when it comes to one recent study of the Swiss:

In the early 1990s, Switzerland was getting ready to have a national referendum about where it would site nuclear waste dumps. Citizens had strong views on the ...


June 20, 2013, 3:34 am, 1110383
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ is in contraction, at a nine-month low, with output and new orders in decline.

Key points

Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.3 (49.2 in May). Nine-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index at 48.8 (50.7 in May). Eight-month low.
China Flash Manufacturing ...


June 20, 2013, 3:34 am, 1110382
The clampdown on China's shadow banking continues today, with Money Rates at Record Highs as PBOC Lets Cash Crunch Build

China’s benchmark money-market rates climbed to records as the central bank refrained from using reverse-repurchase agreements to address a cash crunch in the world’s second-biggest economy.

The ...


June 20, 2013, 3:25 am, 1110381

I’m not a fan of the enhanced communications of the Federal Reserve.  In general, I think central banks should say nothing.  Nothing.  Just do your work through fed funds, and make sure you squeeze out bad debts before you stop tightening.  That was the way Martin and Volcker did it, ...


June 20, 2013, 1:33 am, 1110362
The United States has always benefited from immigration and will continue to do so, an economist writes.


June 20, 2013, 12:35 am, 1110350

It is more than a grim coincidence that Herbert Spencer, in his great book Man vs. the State, was warning of the coming slavery in 1884, and that George Orwell, in our time, has predicted that the full consummation of this slavery will ...


June 20, 2013, 12:04 am, 1110347
(June 20, 2013 12:18 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Arnold Kling pointed me to Lester Therow's 1972 Public Interest piece on "Education and Economic Equality."  In Therow's lingo, the "wage competition view" roughly equals the human capital model and the "job competition view" roughly equals the signaling model.  It's... (0 COMMENTS)


June 19, 2013, 11:35 pm, 1110346

The line-ups for the Kazungula ferry start two or three kilometres from the water on either side of the Zambezi river. Each ...


June 19, 2013, 10:05 pm, 1110333

Ross Douthat called him “the best actor in the best TV show of all time.”  I consider that to be a fair description.  I will never forget Tony proclaiming in one episode “He ain’t got ungatz” (sp?) and suddenly understanding what my father had meant by that many years ...


June 19, 2013, 9:03 pm, 1110330
Another take on the FOMC statement and Bernanke press conference from Goldman Sachs' economists Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn:

The FOMC was more hawkish than we had expected. First, Chairman Bernanke suggested that tapering would start “later” this year and might conclude in mid-2014 assuming a 7% unemployment ...


June 19, 2013, 8:05 pm, 1110329

Barbara Oakley, an engineering professor at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan, has just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. a brilliant article on “pathological altruism.” https://mail-attachment.googleus
ercontent.com/attachment/u/0/?ui=2&ik=11da294d87&v
iew=att&th=13f5238b21339128&attid=0.1.1&disp=safe&
zw&saduie=AG9B_P9vxHlegO9Y6TcYl5o4aERi&sadet=13716
56188192&sads=Ae4o5m1UMX9s10vCJ3nHqylftzU People often act out of a desire to help others, but this by no means ensures that what they do will ...


June 19, 2013, 7:04 pm, 1110285
Dissenting votes on the Federal Open Market Committee usually don't have much impact on the actual direction of monetary policy, but what happened Wednesday may be different.


June 19, 2013, 7:04 pm, 1110284
Fed Chairman Bernanke cleared up one thing Wednesday: what exactly constitutes “a substantial improvement” in the job market.


June 19, 2013, 7:03 pm, 1110283

Tim Duy's second reaction to the FOMC meeting and press conference:

FOMC Statement: Second Reaction


June 19, 2013, 7:03 pm, 1110282
Last month there were quite a few analysts predicting the Fed would start tapering off QE purchases in June. My response was Three words: Will Not Happen.

Now we are seeing a flurry of articles with headlines suggesting reducing the monthly purchases of assets is "close" or "near". It depends on ...


June 19, 2013, 6:45 pm, 1110281

TODAY'S recommended economics writing:

• Bernanke ignores low inflation, market doesn't (Bloomberg)

• Rick Perry, liberals and Texas (Matt Yglesias)

• Mediocrity and the civil service in China (Alphaville)

• Making the case for a rise in inflation (New York Times)

...


June 19, 2013, 6:36 pm, 1110280

After years of grim revenue news, state tax collections are surging. As they do, governors and state legislators are making decisions about how to manage the unfamiliar windfall. Some governors, including California’s Jerry Brown, are husbanding resources, trying to hold down spending and paying down one-time debts. Others, such ...


June 19, 2013, 6:35 pm, 1110279

There are some of you, I know, who don’t subscribe to the Counterparties email newsletter, and read it instead on this blog. That’s OK, I don’t hold it against you. But we’ve moved the newsletter off this blog now: Counterparties now has its own blog, to complement the ...


June 19, 2013, 6:05 pm, 1110274

Panda Gourmet, Langdon Days Inn, 2700 New York Ave., just east of Bladensburg Road, NE, 202-636-3588.

It is in a dump of a roadside motel.  You must of course ask for the secret Chinese menus, as the Chinese-American fare does not appear to be of interest.  They have have a special ...


June 19, 2013, 5:34 pm, 1110272
Curve Watchers Anonymous has a close eye on treasury yields in the wake of essentially no news from Bernanke as to when the Fed might actually begin hiking rates.

A mere hint the Fed might slow its QE program was enough to send treasury yields and the US dollar ...


June 19, 2013, 5:04 pm, 1110211
Fed Chairman Bernanke has made no secret of his desire to reduce risks in the $2.6 trillion money-market mutual fund industry. On Wednesday, he said he’s “very glad” securities regulators have finally made progress addressing those risks but stopped short of endorsing a recent proposal by the SEC.


June 19, 2013, 5:03 pm, 1110210

Tim Duy:

FOMC Statement: First Reaction, by Tim Duy: The June FOMC statement was released minutes ago, and it sent a clear signal that the door to scaling back asset purchases was now wide open. Of course, we still await the press conference, where Federal Reserve Chairman ...


June 19, 2013, 4:45 pm, 1110209


June 19, 2013, 4:45 pm, 1110208


June 19, 2013, 4:45 pm, 1110207

Remember last summer? The London Whale, that blockbuster adventure thriller, triggered one chill after another as the high-risk action at JPMorgan Chase was revealed. Today, the threats posed by megabanks remain just below the surface — no crisis at the moment — but they’re equally dangerous. A major sequel this ...


June 19, 2013, 4:35 pm, 1110206

The Congressional Budget Office came out with a report late yesterday that cites a wide variety of economic benefits from immigration reform, a report that arguably helps the advocates of reform in the Senate ...


June 19, 2013, 4:04 pm, 1110204
(June 19, 2013 04:52 PM, by David Henderson) In the latest issue of Regulation magazine is a symposium on carbon taxes. The lead article is by Bob Litterman and then four authors, including me, responded. Here's an excerpt from my piece. On two other issues, I disagree with... (4 COMMENTS)


June 19, 2013, 4:04 pm, 1110203

by Linda Beale

Going Dark–not just an SEC issue, when companies keep their tax classification secret

Today’s Times includes an interesting piece by Floyd Norris about the problem of companies that are neither private nor public but have (or claim to have) few enough public investors that the SEC allows them to ...


June 19, 2013, 4:04 pm, 1110202


June 19, 2013, 3:34 pm, 1110198
NPR reports European Car Sales Hit 20-Year Low For May.

Country by Country Details

Passenger car sales dropped by 5.9% from May 2012 in the 27-country European Union to 1.042 million units, the lowest level since May 1993 German car sales dropped 9.9% in May, Italy was ...


June 19, 2013, 3:34 pm, 1110197

What are the near-term prospects for economic growth in the industrial Midwest? In part because the Midwest is steeped in the production of durable goods, such as automobiles and machinery, its economy has long experienced more-pronounced swings over the business cycle than the overall U.S. economy. The current expansion following ...


June 19, 2013, 3:33 pm, 1110196
A statement by the Fed's policy committee and a news conference by Ben S. Bernanke could provide clues about when the central bank might curtail its stimulus programs.


June 19, 2013, 3:33 pm, 1110195

The Congressional Budget Office analysis of the immigration reform bill moving through Congress tells us some important things. Perhaps the newsiest is this: The legislation would save a net $175 billion over a decade and another nearly $700 billion over the decade after that. This is important, too: Real GDP — ...


June 19, 2013, 3:25 pm, 1110194
May 2013June 2013CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been ...


June 19, 2013, 3:24 pm, 1110193
This week I was delighted to travel down to Stratford upon Avon to join the annual gathering of the BASS group of schools. BASS stands for Boys Academically Selective Schools and draws schools from a large geographical range of schools across the UK and the setting at King Edward VI School, ...


June 19, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1110132
Fed Chairman Bernanke faces one of his toughest tests in years: carefully reining in the central bank’s bond-buying program without sparking an investor panic.


June 19, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1110130
The following is the full statement following the Fed’s June meeting.


June 19, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1110131
The Federal Reserve projects that the unemployment rate could fall to 6.5% in 2014, a threshold it has conditionally set to begin raising interest rates.


June 19, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1110129
The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank's economic outlook and the actions it plans to take.


June 19, 2013, 3:03 pm, 1110128
FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, ...


June 19, 2013, 3:03 pm, 1110127
Just a couple of months ago, several analysts argued that the Fed would start to taper QE purchases in June.  That was NEVER in the cards.  September is possible, but I still expect they will wait until December or early 2014 to start to taper.

The Fed is clearly missing on ...


June 19, 2013, 2:45 pm, 1110126


June 19, 2013, 2:45 pm, 1110125


June 19, 2013, 2:05 pm, 1110122

Okalipuram corporator Queen Elizabeth was granted anticipatory bail in a forgery case.

Allowing her bail plea, high court vacation judge AN Venugopala Gowda told her to surrender her passport before the trial court and execute a personal bond for Rs 50,000.

The corporator has to be available for interrogation as and when required ...


June 19, 2013, 2:05 pm, 1110121

Perhaps he could write such poems in his spare time.  Or perhaps better not?:

Canada’s Parliamentary Poet Laureate, wondering aloud why the government never asks him to write poems, has inadvertently answered his own question.

“I wish that my government had asked me to write poetry about immigration policy, about Idle No ...


June 19, 2013, 2:04 pm, 1110120

June 19, 2013, 2:04 pm, 1110119

The software placed all the charts in the previous post after the page break.

I do not know how to fix it so go to page 2 to real the post.


June 19, 2013, 1:34 pm, 1110112
Growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again:

In July the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, chaired by Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), will discuss a carbon tax bill that would impose a fee on ...


June 19, 2013, 1:24 pm, 1110111
Last March I had the privilege to meet and interview Edward Hugh at a conference in Vienna. I have pasted (an edited-down version of) our interview below, originally published on the Morningstar Advisor magazine (p.49). In case you don't know anything about Edward, he's an extremely knowledgeable and insightful economist, who has ...


June 19, 2013, 1:08 pm, 1110050
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.


June 19, 2013, 1:08 pm, 1110049
Bernanke will step up to the microphones Wednesday for his tenth press conference. The press conferences, since they debuted in April 2011, can have a substantial influence on markets.


June 19, 2013, 1:08 pm, 1110048
The International Monetary Fund said earlier this month it made major mistakes in its 2010 bailout of Greece, errors in a large part due to a poor assessment of the country's debt.


June 19, 2013, 12:45 pm, 1110047


June 19, 2013, 12:45 pm, 1110046


June 19, 2013, 12:45 pm, 1110045


June 19, 2013, 12:35 pm, 1110044

George Zimmer, the founder and public face of Men’s Wearhouse since 1973, has been fired as CEO.

Bloomberg (“Men’s Wearhouse Board Fires Founder George Zimmer“):

Men’s Wearhouse Inc.’s board fired George Zimmer, the ...


June 19, 2013, 12:35 pm, 1110043

There’s good news on the CitiBike front. The big problem I wrote about on June 5 — the way in which entire stations would regularly go dark, refusing to dispense or accept bicycles — seems to have been solved. This is true anecdotally: I haven’t encountered it in the ...


June 19, 2013, 12:05 pm, 1110040

AP: Washington: The nation’s teacher-training programs do not adequately prepare would-be educators for the classroom, even as they produce almost triple the number of graduates needed, according to a survey of more than 1,000 programs released Tuesday.

The National Council on Teacher Quality review is a scathing assessment of colleges’ ...


June 19, 2013, 12:04 pm, 1110039
(June 19, 2013 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) Here's a puzzle I've noticed: criticize government intervention on efficiency grounds, and you will be quick to be told that there are "other values" (equity, for example) that a good society should consider in addition to efficiency. Perhaps you will... (1 COMMENTS)


June 19, 2013, 12:04 pm, 1110038

 

With the F ed completing a two day meeting and Bernanke holding a press conference today  it may be a good time to make a few comments about bond yields.


June 19, 2013, 11:34 am, 1110037
And so we begin the annual Outer Banks ugly user conflict (e.g., I like 'em fried):

The National Park Service closed Ramp 43 in Buxton this morning to protect a nest of piping plover chicks that has started hatching.

As of late this afternoon, three chicks in the four-egg nest had hatched, according ...


June 19, 2013, 11:33 am, 1110036

In the NY Times recently, a San Francisco landlords explains why he’ll leave the apartment in his home vacant, and never rent it out again – thanks to the city’s rent control and anti-landlord housing laws.

San Francisco is going through one of its worst housing ...


June 19, 2013, 11:04 am, 1109978
For Bank of Japan officials tasked with making sure the bond market operates smoothly, things have been anything but smooth over the past three months, as they scrambled to tame wild swings in bond yields triggered by the BOJ's decision in April to double its already massive purchases of Japanese ...


June 19, 2013, 11:04 am, 1109977
The consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in May and the core price index -- which excludes food and energy -- climbed 0.2%.


June 19, 2013, 11:04 am, 1109976
The Fed’s policy committee wraps up its latest conclave today and Bernanke's challenge in clear: Lay the groundwork for pulling QE3 back without alarming the markets.


June 19, 2013, 11:04 am, 1109975
The volatile housing market has slowed purchases of starter homes, but it hasn’t wiped out college grads’ desire for them.


June 19, 2013, 11:03 am, 1109974
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Strong Rebound for Architecture Billings Index

Following the first reversal into negative territory in ten months in April, the Architecture Billings Index has bounced back in May. As a leading ...


June 19, 2013, 10:45 am, 1109973


June 19, 2013, 10:45 am, 1109972


June 19, 2013, 10:45 am, 1109971


June 19, 2013, 10:36 am, 1109970

British capitalism is dysfunctional, and policy-makers have done little since the crisis began to repair it. This isn't (just) my opinion, but that of some monetary policy committee members. Today's minutes show that some thought that:

the benefits of further asset purchases were likely to ...


June 19, 2013, 10:05 am, 1109967

Justin Wolfers tells us to find him here.  Here is one tweet:

Mankiw blog notes all-Harvard CEA now. More amazing: all CEA chairs and members since 2000 got PhD from Cambridge MA schools except 1: Stock


June 19, 2013, 10:04 am, 1109966

Earlier I noted the research of Peter Muennig, Zohn Rosen and Elizabeth Ty Wilde which proves (at all standard confidence intervals) that welfare reform killed people.  I was alarmed that almost nobody but the must read Bill Gardner noticed this research.  Now Dylan Matthews has a long excellent ...


June 19, 2013, 9:35 am, 1109961

If it weren't for the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates, there would be no macroeconomic role for fiscal policy in New Keynesian models. Monetary policy alone could and therefore should be used to hit the macroeconomic target, because this leaves fiscal policy free to try to hit its ...


June 19, 2013, 9:34 am, 1109960
Near Lake Louise ski area around the time of the AERE Summer Conference:

Photo Credit: Lynne Lewis


June 19, 2013, 9:34 am, 1109959

This is the robins' nest right outside our back door. This is the second batch (?) of babies of the nesting season. I think we might be able to enjoy one more batch (?):


June 19, 2013, 9:03 am, 1109899
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 ...


June 19, 2013, 8:05 am, 1109897

Andrew Sullivan is upset with President Obama over Syria.  I’d like to consider the background question of whether individuals, upon assuming the presidency, subsequently come to look more kindly on foreign intervention (and perhaps also surveillance?) than before holding office.  I can think of a few reasons why this ...


June 19, 2013, 8:04 am, 1109896

In my latest column in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, I continue to warn against the pretense of Science in policy-making.  Here’s a slice:

Because no drug is completely risk-free, and because different people have different tolerances for risk, there’s absolutely no scientifically objective way for the FDA to determine if a new ...


June 19, 2013, 7:34 am, 1109894
An excellent test for gun control advocates. 


June 19, 2013, 7:34 am, 1109895
You need equity. Sheesh. (Link via Metafilter.)


June 19, 2013, 7:34 am, 1109893

June 19, 2013, 7:34 am, 1109892
With a quote from my department chair, Lee Craig.


June 19, 2013, 7:33 am, 1109891
The recent moderation in health care spending is cited as a sign of efficiency and has inspired new hope for deficit reduction. But as the economy improves, medical outlays may surge anew.


June 19, 2013, 7:24 am, 1109890

When reading economic articles in the past few years, you may frequently come across reference to the ‘zero lower bound’ or ZLB.

What is the Zero Lower Bound rate?

In short - when interest rates can’t fall any further below 0%

Examples of ZLB

UK interest rates were cut to 0.5% in March 2009 ...


June 19, 2013, 7:04 am, 1109831

Today, we're going to demonstrate how the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) combined together into a troika to wreck the economy of Greece in 2010.


June 19, 2013, 6:45 am, 1109830


June 19, 2013, 6:36 am, 1109829

The great divergence of returns among the major asset classes rolls on in 2013. Indeed, the range of performance has widened since the previous edition of Asset Allocation & Rebalancing Review. US stocks are still at the top of the list while emerging market equities continue to toil ...


June 19, 2013, 5:24 am, 1109825
UPDATE: Please note that the submission deadline for the 2013 Essay Competition is now midnight on Sunday 30 June 2013. The deadline has been extended to allow A2 Economics students more time to complete their entries after the final A2 examinations.tutor2u and the Royal Economic Society are delighted to announce ...


June 19, 2013, 5:24 am, 1109824

A good post by Simon Wren Lewis on future UK macroeconomic policy – learning from the experience of the past few years. – Bold macroeconomic policy for a new government.

Essentially, it involves committing to a more flexible fiscal policy which can take into account the different requirements of liquidity ...


June 19, 2013, 5:03 am, 1109787

June 19, 2013, 3:34 am, 1109784
Bloomberg reports China Swaps Surge as Cash Squeeze Sees Demand Wane at Debt Sale.

China’s one-year interest-rate swap rose by the most in 22 months as the central bank refrained from adding funds to the financial system to ease a cash squeeze, causing demand to fall at a ...


June 19, 2013, 3:25 am, 1109783

I am biased on AIG.  It was never as good as proponents of its past have said.  But it was not as bad as current detractors allege.

AIG went through several eras, some of which are barely covered by this book.  There was the ...


June 19, 2013, 2:05 am, 1109768

One statistic above all explains the excitement India kindles: just 18 people in every 1,000 own a car. In China the figure is 58, according to the World Bank, while in most European countries it is more than 500. “India’s level of car ownership per capita is even lower than ...


June 19, 2013, 2:04 am, 1109767
(June 19, 2013 12:01 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Is television the new agriculture? Upon strong pressure on the part of the French, the "audiovisual" industry will be kept out of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) negotiations. Simon Kuper had an interesting article on the FT, providing... (0 COMMENTS)


June 19, 2013, 1:33 am, 1109766

The National Association of Home Builders is reporting this week that:

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes hit a significant milestone in June, surging eight points to a reading of 52 on the National Association of ...


June 19, 2013, 12:35 am, 1109761

The very idea that the FOMC would function as faithful monetary eunuchs, keeping their eyes on the M1 gauge and deftly adjusting the dial in either direction upon any deviation from the 3 percent target, was sheer fantasy. And not ...


June 19, 2013, 12:04 am, 1109759
(June 19, 2013 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In Stereotype Accuracy, Clark McCauley describes a fascinating Ideological Turing Test from 1972:Dawes, Singer, and Lemons (1972)... recruited students who were "hawks" and "doves" with regard to the Vietnam War and asked them to write opinion statements that the typical... (0 COMMENTS)


June 19, 2013, 12:04 am, 1109758
In case you weren't aware, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is appointed by the President to a renewable 4-year term. (The chairman is also a member of the board, obviously, and there is a 14-year term for the regular board members.) Ben ...