Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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October 20, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1354356

In the wake of the mass shooting incidents that grabbed headlines in 2012, especially the movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado and the elementary school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, many states reacted by passing laws to restrict gun ownership ...


October 20, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1354355
Teaser:

The ...


October 20, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1354351
(October 20, 2014 04:51 PM, by Art Carden) The world is a pretty complex and mesmerizing place, and people (and firms) do a lot of things that are, at first glance, hard to understand. Consider airlines. I've heard on numerous occasions complaints about how major carriers board their... (0 COMMENTS)


October 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1354345
In yet another potential market topping sign, M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008

The value of deals that fail to complete has reached its highest level since 2008, in the latest sign that the best year for mergers and acquisitions since the financial crisis will also ...


October 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1354344

Assuming that only 12% of campus sexual assaults at OSU are reported.

Assuming that 1 in 5 women at OSU are assaulted over 4 years.

In May, I wrote a CD ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1354283
Stalls at an outdoor market in Donetsk this month. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The world’s banks tightened the purse strings on Ukraine in the middle of its conflict ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1354282

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1354281
CR Note: Existing Home Sales for September will be released tomorrow by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.09 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in August were at a 5.05 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the ...


October 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1354280
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October 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1354279

LAST week, the Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Jean Tirole (see this week's Free exchange column) for his work examining the difficulties in regulating firms with substantial market power. Mr Tirole's research is as relevant as ever, thanks to growing concern over the weight tech titans are ...


October 20, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1354275

October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354270

|Peter Boettke|

Coming to a PBS station near you -- Water Williams: Suffer No Fools.

It is one of the great honors of my life to have been hired at GMU when Walter Williams was the Department Chairman. Walter signs his articles and books, WalterE. ...


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354269
Here is a link to my piece on inequality that was published today on the Guardian Economics Blog

What Thomas Piketty has shown us, is that since 1980, it is only the rich and the very rich who have benefited from growth, writes Roger Farmer


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354268
On October 6, I noted German Factory Orders Slump 5.7%, Most Since January 2009.

The previous month was up 4.9%, so I averaged the two months noting "The average result is a decline of 0.4% per month, for the last two months. That process also means ...


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354267

Back in 2010, there was an issue ad showing a “Chinese professor” in the year 2030 lecturing his students about America’s collapse. “Why do great nations fail?” he asked. “The ancient Greeks, the Rome Empire, the British Empire, the United States of America — they all make the same mistakes, ...


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354265

The apparent decline in US startups is bad news for two reasons. First, it means fewer potential Googles and Apples and Twitters and other high-impact businesses. Second, it also means fewer small businesses that — while they may not make their owners millions or billions — ...


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354266

I have written a lot about the secular decline in US entrepreneurship. As economist Ian Hathaway noted in a podcast with me:

If you look at the number of freshly launched firms in a given year and you take that as a share of all firms, that rate declined ...


October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354203
The World Trade Organization (WTO) today ruled in favor of Canada and Mexico, saying that U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) rules violate our commitments in previous trade agreements.

The COOL rules in dispute required new labels on fresh beef, pork, and lamb, but not on processed foods such as ...


October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354201
Candy prices should leave Halloween fright to the neighborhood kids this year. Getty Images (2012)

Halloween is known for frightening ghosts, goblins and witches. But this year, ...


October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354202
Lawrence Mishel Getty Images (2008)

Gaps in educational achievement and shifts in technology, often cited as key reasons for widening income and wealth inequality, do very little ...


October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354200

Differences in income taxe ratess across states have little impact on migration:

State “Income Migration” Claims Are Deeply Flawed, by Michael Mazerov, CBPP: Some proponents of state income tax cuts are making highly inaccurate claims about the impact of interstate migration patterns on states with relatively high income taxes ...


October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354199
From FHFA Director Melvin Watt: Prepared Remarks of Melvin L. Watt, Director, FHFA, At the Mortgage Bankers Association Annual Convention

On lower downpayments:

To increase access for creditworthy but lower-wealth borrowers, FHFA is also working with the Enterprises to develop sensible and responsible guidelines for mortgages with ...


October 20, 2014, 2:45 pm, 1354197
Money is a new feature in the Michigan sixth congressional district, where Democratic challengers are going on the offensive against incumbent Republican Fred Upton.


October 20, 2014, 2:45 pm, 1354198
The depressive donkey in A.A. Milne’s "Winnie the Pooh" stories pretty much matches the mood of Americans lately, according to the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released last week.


October 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1354196
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October 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1354195
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October 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1354194
THIS week our correspondents discuss deflation, the TV business and the politics of wages


October 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1354192

October 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1354191

Maybe that welfare cost is not very high at all.   After all, if Amazon does not carry a book you can sign up at the Barnes & Noble website and that takes a few minutes at most.

There is a tension in most criticisms of Amazon.  On one hand, the ...


October 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1354187

*"I have no idea what Bono and the Edge think is funny."


October 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1354186

Over the last six months, retail gas prices in the US have fallen by 62 cents, from $3.71 per gallon in late April to $3.09 per gallon currently, according to GasBuddy.com (see blue line in chart above). That’s almost ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354124

Taxes are a hot topic in the unexpectedly close Maryland governor's race. Republican nominee and former Ehrlich Cabinet member Larry Hogan has proposed cutting the state corporate income tax from 8.25 percent to 6 percent, along with "roll[ing] ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354123

The Irish Times reports that the Irish government is considering a 6.25 percent tax rate on intellectual property:

“Irish officials are examining the feasibility of a 6.25 per cent rate on a new corporate tax scheme as the Government moves to shore up inward investment after its decision ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354122

The nonprofit sector largely dodged massive job losses and weak wage growth experienced across most of the U.S. during the recession and first years of the economic recovery, new Labor Department data shows.

The nonprofit field, which is a cross-section of employment mainly in industries such as health care, social assistance, ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354121
The good news is that the outlook for global trade this year is a bit better than last year. But the bad news, according to the World Trade Organization, is that the economic malaise in Europe will drag on the exchange of goods around the world, in turn hurting the ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354120
Is it working yet? Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The European Central Bank launched its private sector asset purchase program on Monday.

But will it work?

Everyone knew it was ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354119

Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo reprimanded Wall Street executives for not doing enough to control the behavior of employees and suggested regulators and prosecutors could impose further constraints on the financial industry if it doesn’t do a better job of policing itself.

Mr. Tarullo, in remarks prepared for a conference ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354118
I frequently hear stories from prime borrowers about their horrible experiences getting mortgages right now. Yes, the process is difficult because of all the extra checks because the lenders are afraid the loans will be put back to them in a few years.

At the same time, loan officers ...


October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354117
Although voters in the U.S. are unlikely to be swayed by lower gas prices, the price drop may lead to significant political maneuvering abroad as Russia and Iran, two major oil exporters, feel an economic pinch.


October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354116
The depressive donkey in A.A. Milne’s "Winnie the Pooh" stories pretty much matches the mood of Americans lately, according to the new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released last week.


October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354115
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October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354114

FRIDAY October 17th was China’s first official “Poverty Alleviation Day”, an annual convocation of “forums and fundraisers”, designed to rally efforts to combat deprivation. Of course, thanks to China’s rapid economic progress, the country already alleviates a lot of poverty each day: last year the number of rural poor fell ...


October 20, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1354113

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of ...


October 20, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1354112
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October 20, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1354107

I have previously reported about a friend of mine and her experience with Obama Care. Earlier this year her catastrophic health insurance was canceled as insufficient under Obama Care regulations. Her monthly premiums would have increased by several hundred percent to get the cheapest available qualifying coverage. Instead she was ...


October 20, 2014, 11:33 am, 1354105

I also contacted Penny Goldberg, a professor of economics at Yale University and editor of the American Economic Review, to ask if she could think of any joke, any tiny moment of amusement, one solitary witticism that has passed across her desk. Anything, even if it was rejected.

Ms. Goldberg, confirming ...


October 20, 2014, 11:33 am, 1354104

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the ...


October 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1354040

Jon Faust, director of the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University, asks how we’ll be able to tell when the time has arrived for the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

Earlier this year, the commentators in the U.S. who had been warning of imminent inflation ever since ...


October 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1354041

MONDAY

BOE’s Cunliffe speaks in London at 1110 GMT ECB’s Constâncio speaks on banking regulation in London at 1150 GMT Fed’s Powell speaks in a St. Louis Fed webinar on community banking at 10 a.m. EDT

TUESDAY

Australia’s central bank releases minutes of its October policy meeting at 11:30 a.m. local time

WEDNESDAY

ECB’s Noyer gives welcoming ...


October 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1354039
Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party has pledged to use more austere economic policies to tame Brazil’s sticky inflation and jump-start growth. Getty Images

Elections ...


October 20, 2014, 11:03 am, 1354038

Federal Reserve Gov. Jerome Powell didn’t address monetary policy or the economy in introductory remarks he made to a Webinar on community banking on Friday.

He repeated the central bank’s position that it is aware community banks could be unduly hurt by new financial regulations, and is taking care to make ...


October 20, 2014, 10:45 am, 1354037
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October 20, 2014, 10:45 am, 1354036
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October 20, 2014, 10:35 am, 1354035

I have long been sceptical of the feasibility and desireability of social mobility. Today's report by the Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission, though, makes me wonder: is social mobility an out-dated idea?

To see my point, imagine two ...


October 20, 2014, 10:34 am, 1354034
Teaser:

Since ...


October 20, 2014, 10:05 am, 1354030

There is a new NBER paper by Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, and Heqing Zhu, and it is a startler though perhaps not a surprise:

Hundreds of papers and hundreds of factors attempt to explain the cross-section of expected returns. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make ...


October 20, 2014, 10:04 am, 1354029
(October 20, 2014 09:05 AM, by Scott Sumner) Sometimes I argue that nominal GDP is like Coke, it's the "real thing." By that I mean it's a well-defined concept, the dollar value of all output of final goods and services. Of course I exaggerate, there are some conceptual... (0 COMMENTS)


October 20, 2014, 9:33 am, 1354022

The Society for the Development of Austrian Economics is pleased to announce the winners of the 2014 Carl Menger Essay Contest for undergraduate students. Professors Daniel Smith, Michael Thomas, and Adam Martin were this year’s judges. All entries were anonymous.

The prize comes with $500 plus a ...


October 20, 2014, 9:33 am, 1354021

From the Miscellany Section of Economic Inquiry:

We collect contingent valuation data from 524 student survey respondents over a 3-day, 72-hour period. Data analysis of a hypothetical campus referendum focuses on time-of-day effects on willingness to pay for a renewable energy project. We find that subjects responding to the ...


October 20, 2014, 9:33 am, 1354020

In 2007, the Fed’s balance sheet was less than $1 trillion. Today, it is nearly $4.5 trillion. The U.S. experience is far from unique. Since 2007, global central bank balance sheets have nearly tripled to more than $22 trillion as of mid-2014. And, the increase is split evenly between advanced ...


October 20, 2014, 9:23 am, 1354019
A2 development economistswill read this article from the BBCwith great interest and ought to be able to extract plenty from it. Extraction lies at the heart of the piece because instead of simply growing sugar, Mauritius has successfully invested in capacity and capabilities to create more value from the basic ...


October 20, 2014, 9:03 am, 1353956
Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England, said bankers’ pay may reflect an expectation that banks will become more profitable over the coming ...


October 20, 2014, 9:03 am, 1353957

October 20, 2014, 9:03 am, 1353955
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 0.4% (1.0 billion vehicle miles) for August 2014 as compared with August 2013.

Travel for the month is estimated to be 267.8 billion vehicle miles.

Cumulative Travel for 2014 changed by 0.6% (11.1 ...


October 20, 2014, 8:45 am, 1353954
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October 20, 2014, 8:44 am, 1353953
Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a year ...


October 20, 2014, 8:35 am, 1353952

Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then. 

What’s a multinational to do? Where is it to go?  Senator Dick Durbin and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden seem pleased that Chicago-based AbbVie’s  decided to drop ...


October 20, 2014, 8:04 am, 1353951
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 60 of the 1990 Liberty Fund edition of Vera Smith’s superb 1936 volume, The Rationale of Central Banking and the Free Banking Alternative:

The public mind entertained exaggerated hopes as to the power of banking.  It was a widespread belief that all that was necessary ...


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353948

The editor of New Republic thinks Amazon is a monopoly.

Many people reply effectively. Here are three.

Annie Lowrey, New York: "Amazon is Not a Monopoly".

Joe Nocera, New York Times[!]: "Amazon Plays Rough. So What?"

Reihan Salam, Slate: "In Praise of Amazon".


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353949

As the kids used to say, "No duh!"

Cheap energy is key for economic growth, and a glut of natural gas is leading to a kind of small renaissance in American manufacturing, especially in energy-intensive industries. More fracking means more gas, lower prices, and growth potential for ...


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353947

I concur.

And don’t just vote, but make sure others cast the right vote as well. Here’s why:

First and foremost, the right to vote should never be taken for granted. It is a gift and one we should cherish. It should not be tossed aside. ...


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353950

I particularly like the suggestion that Ms. Watson "needed a giant “FIRST-WORLD PROBLEMS” sign behind her at this UN speech".


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353945

Jonah Goldberg at the top of his form. Half funny, half original, insightful analysis. Even though this column depreciates economics a bit, it's a good argument. And I really like his discussion of "wedge issues".

So the other day I was on Fox talking about the minimum ...


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353944

Econ Ph.D. students, send your resumes to Google!

Spoiler: the app is Matlab.


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353943

Thanks to the rank bias of teachers of "environmental science" today's high schools students are unlikely to know the enormous damage Silent Spring did. Show them this.


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353946

This is mean, nasty, over the top, and I liked every word of it.


October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353942
Adam Copeland and Ira Selig

Tri-party repo is popular among securities dealers as a way to raise short-term funding. The tri-party repo settlement process has been improved, and continues to be improved, with the implementation of a set of recent reforms. Two main goals of ...


October 20, 2014, 7:23 am, 1353941
New data has been released on relative productivity for the UK and other G7 nations.In 2013, based on GDP per hour, the UK came sixth of the G7 countries, with the USA top and Japan bottom. UK productivity was 17 percentage points lower than the average for the rest of ...


October 20, 2014, 6:45 am, 1353898
Although voters in the U.S. are unlikely to be swayed by lower gas prices, the price drop may lead to significant political maneuvering abroad as Russia and Iran, two major oil exporters, feel an economic pinch.


October 20, 2014, 6:45 am, 1353897
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October 20, 2014, 6:45 am, 1353896
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October 20, 2014, 6:45 am, 1353895
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October 20, 2014, 6:44 am, 1353894

Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about Zingales's essay, "Preventing Economists' Capture." Zingales argues that just as regulators become swayed by the implicit incentives of dealing with industry executives, so too with economists who ...


October 20, 2014, 6:35 am, 1353893
● World stocks advance on strong data, earnings | Reuters Global stocks climbed on Monday, with strong U.S. data and encouraging third-quarter earnings easing concerns about the pace of global economic recovery and raising appetite for riskier assets. ● Volatility … Continue reading →


October 20, 2014, 6:35 am, 1353892
Economic worries for the global economy are again taking a toll on sentiment these days, but the US macro trend shows few signs of stress, based on data through September. It remains to be seen if the resiliency holds up … Continue reading →


October 20, 2014, 6:05 am, 1353891

The Germans lecture the periphery to engage in structural reform and increase their exports.  A variety of IS-LM Keynesians strike back and note that not all nations can increase their net exports, therefore it is a kind of zero-sum game which won’t boost aggregate demand overall.  This is sometimes followed ...


October 20, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353889
Here are some summary notes on economic growth and development prospects for the Ivory Coast.


October 20, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353888

Deflation is defined as a fall in the general price level. It is a negative rate of inflation. It means the value of money increases rather than decreases. Deflation is not necessarily bad, but often periods of deflation / low inflation can lead ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353829

 

Faltering growth, double-digit unemployment and a looming threat of deflation in Europe are causing American businesses to worry — again — about the eurozone’s economic woes.

According to a survey of corporate economists ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353828
The Federal Reserve in Washington. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Cato Institute has some bones to pick with the Federal Reserve.

The Washington libertarian think tank this week ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353827

Since the S&P 500 is behaving so predictably, and because we just visited the topic on Thursday, 16 October 2014, we thought we'd take this opportunity to revisit how the stock prices of the S&P 500 behaved in the third quarter of 2014.

Our ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353826

October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353825

I've been harping on the lack of concern about market power since I began blogging almost 10 years ago. Nobody much listened or cared -- so this is very welcome:

Amazon’s Monopsony Is Not O.K., by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Amazon.com, the giant online retailer, has too much ...


October 20, 2014, 2:05 am, 1353794

This is from Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett:

…knowing the current growth rate only modestly improves the prediction of future growth rates over just guessing it will be the (future realized) world average.  The R-squared of decade-ahead predictions of decade growth varies from 0.056 (for the most recent decade) to 0.13.  ...


October 20, 2014, 1:33 am, 1353793
The ECB has been concerned about falling consumer prices. I propose that's 100% stupid, yet that's the concern.

When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1353785
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at the Boston Fed last year.  Boston Globe

BOSTON–The Federal Reserve will likely conclude its bond-buying program this month as planned, ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1353784

BOSTON–The Federal Reserve is ready to end its bond-buying program at its meeting next week, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview Saturday. But if overseas weakness turns out to have a greater negative impact on the U.S. economy than he currently expects, Mr. Rosengren said the central ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1353783

 

Faltering growth, double-digit unemployment and a looming threat of deflation in Europe are causing American businesses to worry — again — about the eurozone’s economic woes.

According to a survey of corporate economists ...


October 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1353782
The Federal Reserve in Washington. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The Cato Institute has some bones to pick with the Federal Reserve.

The Washington libertarian think tank this week ...


October 20, 2014, 12:45 am, 1353781
Robert Litan: Online commerce accounts for about 6% of all retail sales this year, up from essentially zero in 2000.


October 19, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1353777

President Barack Obama on Sunday hit the campaign trail for the first time this year, urging voters to the polls to support a Democratic party that “is going to fight for you.”

Mr. Obama was stumping for Maryland Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and later for Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn at ...


October 19, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1353778
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Reuters

The Federal Reserve should end its bond-purchase program as planned at its policy meeting this month, John Williams, ...


October 19, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1353776
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at the Boston Fed last year.  Boston Globe

BOSTON–The Federal Reserve will likely conclude its bond-buying program this month as planned, ...


October 19, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1353775

BOSTON–The Federal Reserve is ready to end its bond-buying program at its meeting next week, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview Saturday. But if overseas weakness turns out to have a greater negative impact on the U.S. economy than he currently expects, Mr. Rosengren said the central ...


October 19, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1353774

Efficient banks have many options for lenders and credit when banking crises hit. It's the inefficient and insolvent banks that must turn to a central bank. But do we really want central banks that reward insolvency and encourage inefficiency? ...


October 19, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1353772
(October 20, 2014 12:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Mainstream scientists assure us that Ebola poses very little threat to Americans; unless you're a health worker who cares for the infected, Ebola is almost impossible to catch in a rich, modern society. Yet many populists and borderline conspiracy theorists... (7 COMMENTS)


October 19, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1353771
(October 20, 2014 01:27 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Economics makes many things funnier. But econ's comedic value-added for the final scene of The Warriors (1979) is truly rich. The first 15 seconds have the big unintended joke, but don't stop there.... (0 COMMENTS)


October 19, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1353770

President Barack Obama on Sunday hit the campaign trail for the first time this year, urging voters to the polls to support a Democratic party that “is going to fight for you.”

Mr. Obama was stumping for Maryland Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and later for Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn at ...


October 19, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1353769
From Merrill Lynch on Oil:

The plunge in oil prices, if it proves persistent, could end up being the big economic story. Energy prices have fallen very sharply in the past three months. Brent oil prices have declined from around $110/bbl in July to $86/bbl as this goes to ...


October 19, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1353768

Yale University has generated annual returns of 13.9% over the last 20 years on its endowment – well in excess of the 9.2% average return on US university endowments. Keynes’ writings were a considerable influence on the investment philosophy of David Swensen, Yale’s CIO. This column traces how Keynes’ experiences ...


October 19, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1353767
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October 19, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1353765
In this TED talk, Dilip Ratha, ofthe Migration and Remittances Unit at the World Bank, sets out simply boththe size of remittancesand theeconomic impact on the countries that receive them.


October 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1353764
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Reuters

The Federal Reserve should end its bond-purchase program as planned at its policy meeting this month, John Williams, ...


October 19, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1353763

I was pleased to see today’s New York Times editorial entitled “A Rate Cap for All Consumer Loans.”  It created a very public description of an industry indiscretion involving loaning money to the military at over 36%. Those loans are illegal because a federal law makes ...


October 19, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1353761
This article from the Sunday Observerhttp://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/
oct/18/ec... is really useful for understanding some of the longer term dynamics in the labour market that are affecting the pattern of demand for jobs of different skills.


October 19, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1353746

The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those ...


October 19, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1353743

A shocking example is the decrepit state of German military hardware. Of the Luftwaffe’s 254 fighter planes, 150 cannot fly.

That is from Wolfgang Münchau at the FT.


October 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1353741


October 19, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1353740
Behavioural economics figures more prominently in the new specifications for A level economics from September 2015 onwards.This brief essay from Cass Sunstein, the co-author (with Richard Thaler)of "Nudge"offers a general introduction to the idea of nudging, along with a list of ten of the most important “nudges.” It also provides ...


October 19, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1353714

October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353713

Ultimately all economics is local. Ontario municipalities are in the final throes of a municipal election race and in my own community the question of municipal economic development via public sector construction spending has come up. The concern is that much of the economic activity in my community over the ...


October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353712

Recent posts by Adrian Hope Baille and Sina Motamedi have got me thinking again about the idea of the Federal Reserve (or any other central bank for ...


October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353711
Huky Guru posted a couple of interesting charts on his blog today about shrinking credit but rising percentage of nonperforming Spanish bank loans: NPLs of banks rebounded to 16.59%. Seven points higher than in the 1994 crisis.

Spanish Bank Shrinking Credit


October 19, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1353710
If you have studied the economic importance of capital investment as part of your macroeconomics, then this short article on the German economy (Europe's biggest but experiencing weaker economic growth) will be of interest.The German Finance Minister wants the ratio of investment to GDP to start climbing again with infrastructure ...


October 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353681

Jim Hamilton:

How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?: Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold your breath. ...


October 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353680

Robert Shiller's narrative:

When a Stock Market Theory Is Contagious: Since Sept. 18, the stock market has fallen more than 6 percent. An abrupt decline last week — after five years of gains — prompted fears that the market may have reached a major turning point. Has a bear ...


October 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353679
Some interesting thoughts from Professor Hamilton: How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?

Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold ...


October 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1353676
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to a college student in New Jersey:

Dear Mr. Sloan

Thanks for writing.

You ask if my support of free trade is “too simplistic.”  Aren’t there “conditional situations and details” that I overlook when I oppose protectionist arguments?  Fair questions.  My answer, though, is that while I agree ...


October 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1353663

Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold your breath.


October 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1353660
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 191-192 of Leonard Read‘s 1956 essay “Unearned Riches,” which is chapter XIV in the 1956 collection, edited by Mary Sennholz, On Freedom and Free Enterprise: Essays in Honor of Ludwig von Mises (available for free here) (original emphasis):

Our wage earner may think of ...


October 19, 2014, 9:33 am, 1353658
A great and balanced essay. Thanks to Alex Tabarrok for the pointer.


October 19, 2014, 8:05 am, 1353636

Charles Murray has a good piece on Ayn Rand, critical in parts but especially insightful about why Rand’s books continue to be so inspirational and influential:

Rand expressed the glory of human achievement. She tapped into the delight a human being ...


October 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353635

In the New York Times, no less.

Three cheers for Obamacare!


October 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353634

The Washington Post, 10/16: "Want to feel better about Ebola? This (massive) chart should do the trick."

We wanted to come up with a way to represent the true scale of Ebola in the United States. So we made the graphic below, which depicts over 310 million ...


October 19, 2014, 7:23 am, 1353633
Here is a positive analysis of the economic effects of the rise in net inward migration into the UK economy from Jonathan Portes, Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research:http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/
oct/19/imm...


October 19, 2014, 6:44 am, 1353610
A


October 19, 2014, 6:44 am, 1353609
A


October 19, 2014, 5:33 am, 1353607

With very appetizing pictures of the pizzas.


October 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353606
I find it reassuring that we have an intellectual heavyweight as Chief Economist of the Bank of England. Andy Haldane gave a talk last month to the Keynes Society that was easily one of the best I have heard in the last ten years. Haldane understands that Economic forecasting and ...


October 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353605
The slump in global oil prices is one of the BIG economic stories at the moment. There is plenty of comment and analysis around - this article from the Observer is really good focusing on the gainers and losers from an international perspective.Read:Low oil price means high anxiety for Opec ...


October 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353603
I am sure many economics teaching colleagues will be fascinated to read this blog from John Tomsett at Huntingdon School in York on how he has approached his microeconomics teaching in the first six weeks of the new term. For me, John's blog is an essential read and he is ...


October 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353604
Newnight's Economics Editor Duncan Weldon looks at prospects for the UK economy. How well the economy is doing depends on where you look. Unemployment is falling but real wages for people in work are stagnant or falling. And the productivity gap between the UK and the rest of the world ...


October 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353600

October 19, 2014, 4:44 am, 1353599
Robert Litan: Online commerce accounts for about 6% of all retail sales this year, up from essentially zero in 2000.


October 19, 2014, 4:04 am, 1353598
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...


October 19, 2014, 2:05 am, 1353583

Underpaid or overpaid?:

They’re looking for the few, the proud — and the really desperate.

For a measly $19 an hour, a government contractor is offering applicants the opportunity to get up close and personal with potential Ebola patients at JFK Airport — including taking their temperatures.

Angel Staffing Inc. is hiring brave ...


October 19, 2014, 12:04 am, 1353571
(October 19, 2014 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Given existing border controls, mild measures to prevent serious contagious disease seem morally acceptable. Yet the best choice, in my view, remains fully open borders - tear down the walls and make travel between countries as free as travel within... (0 COMMENTS)