Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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November 23, 2014, 11:33 am, 1376491
The price of 52 Samsung TVs gathered by the BPP, April 2008 - November 2009 (Cavallo)
In a previous post, I mentioned that the ...


November 23, 2014, 10:34 am, 1376478

November 23, 2014, 10:05 am, 1376475

This Vice documentary on sewage in New York is actually quite interesting. I would enjoy the Richard Scarry book.

Hat tip: Connor.


November 23, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376474
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 18 of the 1983 collection of some of the writings of the late G. Warren Nutter, entitled Political Economy and Freedom; specifically, it’s from Nutter’s 1974 essay “Freedom in a Revolutionary Economy”:

More fundamentally, something must be wrong in a society that feels compelled to ...


November 23, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376473
- by New Deal democrat     (from Bonddad blog) Failure to deflate: flat consumer prices only slightly help real wages, sales Usually changes in the inflation rate are all about the price of gasoline.  Not in October.  Although gas prices fell -6.4% (compared with a decline of -5.0% a year ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376462
Bloomberg News

Household debt in South Korea is rising at its fastest pace in seven years, driven by government efforts to help prop up the economy.

Outstanding household debt grew ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376463

The Federal Reserve has asked its inspector general, Mark Bialek, to scrutinize the manner in which the central bank oversees large financial companies, potentially pulling back the curtain on an area that has seen endless criticism since the financial crisis.

The Fed disclosed Thursday its general counsel Scott Alvarez, who has ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376464

A raft of settlements and criminal charges against big Wall Street firms reinforces a loss of public faith in the banking system that poses a threat to the country’s financial stability, said William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“This loss of trust is so severe that ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376461
Women participate less in the workforce in many Asian countries than they do in the West. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic “miracles” depend to a large degree on ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376466
In the past, the Fed adjusted rates by moving its benchmark federal funds rate, an overnight rate on interbank lending, by adding or withdrawing reserves out of the banking ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376465
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 21. Bloomberg News

Broad expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising short-term interest ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376455
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376460
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles said specific guidance over the medium-term might give households and businesses a false sense of certainty. Reuters

LONDON—Providing ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376456
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376457
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376459
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shown at a ruling-party rally Friday, must win over voters who haven’t benefited from his Abenomics growth policies. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Prime Minister ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376458

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, November 21, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dealer Survey Highlights Fed’s Looming Jobs Vs Inflation Conundrum Fed Launches ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376453
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376454

The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when ...


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376452
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 23, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376451
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 23, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376450

This post by Richard reminds me that we need more class-consciousness.

Rightists often argue that class war can be divisive and mean-spirited. But as Richard points out, the opposite is (also?) true. The reduced salience of class divisions has led not to a healthy community ...


November 23, 2014, 8:04 am, 1376448
(Don Boudreaux)

This EconPop movie review is both insightful and witty.  Be sure to watch to the very end.


November 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1376445

Los Angeles and New York clearly win.


November 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1376444


November 23, 2014, 6:04 am, 1376427
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Cassandras are out in force, from the prime minister down, predicting doom and gloom for the world economy and by extension a knock-on effect for...


November 23, 2014, 5:33 am, 1376426

I'm real glad these folks fight on our side.


November 23, 2014, 5:23 am, 1376425

I’m a very intellectually curious person — I could spend most of my time researching investing questions if I had the resources to do that and that alone.  This post at the blog will be a little more wonky than most.  If ...


November 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376402

November 23, 2014, 4:05 am, 1376401

…cetacean brain size, relative to body size, increased substantially about thirty-eight mill years ago when the odontocetes evolved from the ancient archaeocetes…

What drove these changes? It does not seem to have been the transition to an aquatic existence itself as that occurred about fifty-five million years ago and brains stayed ...


November 23, 2014, 4:05 am, 1376400

…the evidence suggests that China was larger (in terms of purchasing power parity) than any other economy in the world until around 1889, when the US eclipsed it. Now, 125 years later, the rankings have reversed again, following decades of rapid economic development in China.

That is from Jeffrey Sachs, ...


November 22, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1376374
A


November 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1376371

(For the youth of today, here is the reference.)

I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a ...


November 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1376370

The appropriate level of public sector wages is debated frequently in every country, and the debate has intensified in the wake of the Global Crisis. This column presents evidence that regional wage differentials in Japan are greater in the private sector than in the public sector. In regions where public ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376368
A correspondent sends a suggested edit of a part of my writing tips for PhD students

With markup

Keep it short


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376367
An eagle got an impressive birds-eye-view of London this week, flying over the city's most iconic landmarks using a Sony HDR-AZ1VR Action Cam attached to its back.



Link if video does not play: Action Cam Footage Shows Eagle Flying Over ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376366
I was given the chance to speak for 5 minutes yesterday at a public event. Unlike the other speakers, I stuck to my time limit and tried to give a punchy talk about the Future of Los Angeles. The event took at place at Prof. Thom Mayne's studio called ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376365
Paul Romer serves as the Director of NYU's Marron Institute of Urban Management. I am a Visiting Scholar at this Institute and try to show up there twice a year. The Institute has just posted my new Working Paper titled: Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from ...


November 22, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376356
Update: I've added the MBAand Goldman Sachs forecasts. Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.

Here is a summary of ...


November 22, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1376354
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a line from this report in the New York Times; I add emphasis to that part of the line that is most germane to this blog post:

Studies show that simply raising the price of an alcoholic beverage by 10 percent reduces alcohol consumption by 7 percent, suggesting that ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376337

Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger:

High marginal tax rates on the top 1%: Optimal tax rates for the rich are a perennial source of controversy. This column argues that high marginal tax rates on the top 1% of earners can make society as a whole better off. Not knowing whether ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376336

The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2.

Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even ...


November 22, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1376333

From 1967 to 1980, Brazil grew at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent. Few would have predicted, then, that for the next 22 years per capita income would grow at precisely zero.

That is from David Pilling at the FT, who considers China as well.  And here ...


November 22, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1376332
(November 22, 2014 02:15 PM, by Scott Sumner) Consider the following story: A suicide bomber has killed at least 48 students at a high school assembly in northeastern Nigeria, witnesses say. . . . The region has been in the grip of fighting between government forces and Boko... (3 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1376329

Everett Glenn, "Pioneer in professional athlete representation," argues that Ol' Roy had to knowabout the goings-on at UNC-Chapel Hill. (Dang gummit!)

Related: "Bob Smizik: How best to punish UNC".


November 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1376328
The first one or two people doing something can hardly be called a trend. Yet, all trends start with a movement of One.

UKIP gained a second seat in British parliament as a result of a special election following a Tory defection to UKIP. The first UKIP seat ...


November 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376313

Remember all those predictions from those with other agendas about runaway inflation (e.g. see Paul Krugman today on The Wisdom of Peter Schiff)?:

The Risks to the Inflation Outlook, by Vasco Cúrdia, FRBSF Economic Letter: The Federal Reserve responded to the recent financial crisis and the Great ...


November 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376312
A


November 22, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1376310
(Don Boudreaux)

Here are two notes on immigration.  The first is from my treasured libertarian friend Frayda Levin; it’s a letter of hers that appears in today’s edition of the New York Times:

To the Editor:

Immigration Has Republican Governors Seething and Facing Practical ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1376272
This will be a short, but busy holiday week. The key reports this week arethe second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the November Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.


November 22, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1376265

It doesn’t sound quite right to still call it that, does it?  In any case it is on display at the National Museum of African Art.  At least two-thirds of the collection is lame and maybe a third or somewhat less is ...


November 22, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1376264
(November 22, 2014 10:44 AM, by David Henderson) Ok, Krugman didn't say that; he didn't mention my name. But that's Krugman's MO. He has stated explicitly before--I can't find the link quickly--that he doesn't want to mention the names of people he takes issue with because that would... (0 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 10:34 am, 1376216

Bob Davis, who is wrapping up a four-year stint covering the Chinese economy for the Wall Street Journal, offers a dim ...


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376212
(Don Boudreaux)

In today’s Wall Street Journal, I review the fourth installment – The Mystery of the Invisible Hand - in Marshall Jevons’s economics murder-mystery series.  A slice:

The breakthrough in the case comes when Spearman’s students present the results of their research on the economics of the art market. Among ...


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376211


November 22, 2014, 10:04 am, 1376210
Dan here…Sometimes I don’t know the questions to ask.  Here is a note on water…. by David Zetland  (from Aguanomics) Does fixing a mistake make it worse? EC writes from Florida: One of the big questions staring me in the face is… as we reach the limits of sustainable use ...


November 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376200
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 21, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity that resulted in several removals ...


November 22, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376199
● Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? By Karen Dawisha Review via The Wall Street Journal Systemic embezzlement, skimming, fraud and personal enrichment through power—these have long been assumed about Vladimir Putin ‘s inner circle, but they have not been comprehensively laid out until now. Karen Dawisha’s book made headlines in ...


November 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1376197
(November 22, 2014 07:09 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) I've been re-reading some of Herbert Spencer's works, for a LibertyMatters discussion that began with a very insightful article of George H. Smith. In Spencer's The Study of Sociology I've stumbled upon this rather amusing quotation that I'd like to... (0 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2014, 8:04 am, 1376196
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 135 of Michael Polanyi’s deep 1958 volume, Personal Knowledge (original emphases):

Scientific discovery reveals new knowledge, but the new vision which accompanies it is not knowledge.  It is less than knowledge, for it is a guess; but it is more than knowledge, for it is a foreknowledge ...


November 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1376194

November 22, 2014, 7:03 am, 1376173
A


November 22, 2014, 6:44 am, 1376172
Several conservative economists have argued congressional Republicans should reappoint CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf next year. Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist disagrees.


November 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1376170

Potentially helpful if you want to show off.


November 22, 2014, 5:33 am, 1376169

Don't sound like a tourist.


November 22, 2014, 5:23 am, 1376168

Photo Credit: Richard.Asia

Recently, I had a client leave me.  I’m not sure why he did — I didn’t ask, because that’s his business.  It *is* his money, after all, not mine.  After deducting the accrued fee, I thanked ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376148

The Federal Reserve has asked its inspector general, Mark Bialek, to scrutinize the manner in which the central bank oversees large financial companies, potentially pulling back the curtain on an area that has seen endless criticism since the financial crisis.

The Fed disclosed Thursday its general counsel Scott Alvarez, who has ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376149

A raft of settlements and criminal charges against big Wall Street firms reinforces a loss of public faith in the banking system that poses a threat to the country’s financial stability, said William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“This loss of trust is so severe that ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376146
Women participate less in the workforce in many Asian countries than they do in the West. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Economic “miracles” depend to a large degree on ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376150
James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Aug. 21. Bloomberg News

Broad expectations the Federal Reserve will start raising short-term interest ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376147
Bloomberg News

Household debt in South Korea is rising at its fastest pace in seven years, driven by government efforts to help prop up the economy.

Outstanding household debt grew ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376153
European Central Bank board member Yves Mersch. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

DORTMUND, Germany—The negative interest rates that some banks have started to slap on to large deposits shouldn’t ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376155

New figures offer the latest reminder of an apartment boom.

Housing starts fell in October because of a 15.5% drop in the multifamily sector, which is notoriously volatile. But ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376154
The share of first-time home buyers has represented less than 30% of all buyers in 18 of the last 19 months, according to the National Association of Realtors.


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376152
The consumer price index’s measure for sugar and artificial sweeteners tumbled 2.2% in October and is down 3.8% from a year earlier. Getty Images

Bakers, start your ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376151
In the past, the Fed adjusted rates by moving its benchmark federal funds rate, an overnight rate on interbank lending, by adding or withdrawing reserves out of the banking ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376145
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles said specific guidance over the medium-term might give households and businesses a false sense of certainty. Reuters

LONDON—Providing ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376138
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376136
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376144
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shown at a ruling-party rally Friday, must win over voters who haven’t benefited from his Abenomics growth policies. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Prime Minister ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376139

The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376137
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376142
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376143

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, November 21, 2014:
Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup.

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Dealer Survey Highlights Fed’s Looming Jobs Vs Inflation Conundrum Fed Launches ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376141
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376140
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376135

November 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1376120

A Georgia O’Keeffe painting just sold for over $44 million, setting a new record for a painting by a woman; the previous record was for a Joan Mitchell painting auctioned for $11.9 million.  A Francis Bacon once auctioned for $142.4 million, and so:

Despite the huge O’Keeffe sale, the cavern between ...


November 22, 2014, 2:05 am, 1376119

November 22, 2014, 1:33 am, 1376118
Thursday and Friday I attended the NBER Asset Pricing conference. As usual it was full of interesting papers and sharp discussion. Program here.

A bloggable insight: Itamar Drechsler, and Qingyi F. Drechsler "The Shorting Premium and Asset Pricing Anomalies." They carefully found the cost ...


November 22, 2014, 1:33 am, 1376117
An important little item from the just released minutes of the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be interesting to people who follow monetary policy and financial reform issues.

Finally, the manager reported on potential arrangements that would allow depository institutions to pledge funds held in ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376101
Kentucky had the biggest decrease in its unemployment rate, 0.5 percentage point to 6.2%, the lowest level in more than six years. Sarah Portlock/The Wall Street ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376102
President Barack Obama announces executive actions on immigration policy during a televised address from the White House on Thursday. Reuters

The White House on Friday said


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376100
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, listens during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376098
A Senate hearing this week raised the question of whether the Fed has fully addressed its alleged shortcomings as a regulator of big banks. Here are five things to know.


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376096
William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during a Senate Banking Subcommittee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Friday. Bloomberg News

If ...


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376097
In the U.S., financial markets, government agencies and most businesses will close next Thursday to observe the Thanksgiving holiday. Before Americans go off to a day of thanks, turkey and football, the shortened workweek will bring a long list of economic reports. Here are five items to watch:


November 22, 2014, 1:03 am, 1376099

The last month has been a challenging time for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

In the view of many market observers, the veteran central banker has sent conflicting messages about the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, injecting uncertainty into the central bank outlook at a time when ...