Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


November Payroll Employment


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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February 4, 2012, 7:03 pm, 948266
Earlier:
Summary for Week ending February 3rd
Schedule for Week of February 5th

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR): AAR Reports Gains for January Rail Traffic

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported that total U.S. rail carloads originated in January 2012 totaled ...


February 4, 2012, 6:47 pm, 948264

SPARKS, Nev.—On a day when the improving economy threatened to undermine Mitt Romney’s main argument to voters, he made a pitch to win over swing voters like Al Babb.


February 4, 2012, 6:47 pm, 948265

LAS VEGAS — At least one Republican presidential candidate is not trying to frame Friday’s better-than-expected unemployment report as a failure of President Barack Obama.

When reporters here asked Newt Gingrich for comment on the jobs numbers as he shook hands with voters at a mostly empty saloon, the former House ...


February 4, 2012, 6:47 pm, 948263

COLORADO SPRINGS—Mitt Romney, who has been selling himself as the presidential candidate best qualified to turn around the economy, acknowledged Saturday that things are improving – and then proceeded to tear into President Barack Obama‘s economic policies.

“I’m delighted things are getting better. I think they are,” Mr. Romney told a ...


February 4, 2012, 6:44 pm, 948262
Prop bets for the Superbowl, available at Bovada, on almost anything and everything related to tomorrow's game and half-time show. Hey, you can even bet on whether the coin toss is heads or tails! Some examples:
How ...


February 4, 2012, 6:05 pm, 948261

There are three lanes, with the left two lanes narrowing into one.  A slight bit further ahead, the traffic from Gallows Road merges into the right lane, map here.

Many people from the far left lane merge “unethically,” driving ahead as far as they can, and then asking to be ...


February 4, 2012, 5:34 pm, 948260
Greek default drama is much like the movie Groundhog Day. If you prefer a quote from Yogi Berra instead, then please consider It's déjà vu all over again.

Every day for weeks we have heard a "deal is close". Moreover, on multiple occasions at ...


February 4, 2012, 5:33 pm, 948259



February 4, 2012, 4:04 pm, 948258

Don’t tell me that the Dems favor fiscal stimulus because they like big government. The payroll tax cut will make it a bit more difficult to expand the size of government in future years. (As Clinton found in 1993, when he was told the “bond markets” (i.e. the Reagan ...


February 4, 2012, 3:03 pm, 948254

I am worried that policymakers are too anxious to reverse course. That is, despite recent communications suggesting that policy will remain on hold or even be eased further, I'm worried that the Fed will increase interest rates too soon. In the past, any sign of green shoots has brought ...


February 4, 2012, 3:03 pm, 948253
Earlier:
Summary for Week ending February 3rd

This will be a light week for economic releases. The key economic release is the December trade balance report to be released on Friday.

Also on Friday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak to the National Association of ...


February 4, 2012, 2:05 pm, 948250

100% whole wheat, 12 Grain, 7 Grain, German Dark Wheat, Health Nut, Healthy Multi-grain, Honey Whole Wheat, Oatnut, Country Oat Bran, Country Wheat, Country White, Country Whole Grain White, Healthfull 10 Grain, Healthfull Flax and Fiber, Healthfull Hearty Wheat, Healthy Nutty Grain, Double Fiber, Double Protein, Grains & More Flax ...


February 4, 2012, 1:33 pm, 948248
"Down the road, this data will be used against you." Or so says one opponent of mandated installation of smart meters into homes. This quote comes from this articlespelling out Tea Party opposition to "green initiatives" seeking to reduce our carbon footprint. If you view climate change as ...


February 4, 2012, 12:46 pm, 948247
Follow the actual policy agenda.


February 4, 2012, 12:46 pm, 948246
Any good news anywhere? Keynesianism is wrong!


February 4, 2012, 12:44 pm, 948245
From the Washington Post:

"Cheap natural gas has also thrown energy markets into turmoil. It is impossible for almost any other source of electric power to compete, especially coal and nuclear. By trimming fuel bills, cheap gas ...


February 4, 2012, 12:05 pm, 948242
(February 4, 2012 10:42 AM, by Arnold Kling) Edmund S. Phelps and Saifedean Ammous write, This shift of power from owners and innovators to state officials is the antithesis of capitalism. Yet this system's apologists and beneficiaries have the temerity to blame all these failures on "reckless capitalism"... (0 ...


February 4, 2012, 11:27 am, 948240

Industry-Ranks-2-2012

I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio.  The first part of this is industry analysis.

My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic.  Green industries are cold.  Red industries ...


February 4, 2012, 10:44 am, 948238
From yesterday's "Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business"

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew substantially in January, as ISM's Non-Manufacturing ...


February 4, 2012, 10:05 am, 948234
(February 4, 2012 09:35 AM, by Arnold Kling) From Ross Douthat, writing an introduction to a new edition of Robert Nisbet's The Quest for Community. Man is a social being, and his desire for community will not be denied. ... And if he can't find that community on... (0 ...


February 4, 2012, 10:05 am, 948233
(February 4, 2012 09:57 AM, by Arnold Kling) Scott Sumner writes, In my view, Japan is the future of the global economy. Not the deflation (I think the Fed will be able to keep inflation close to 2%) but the low real interest rates. In retrospect the 2001... (0 ...


February 4, 2012, 10:04 am, 948232

Steve Horwitz – influenced, methinks, by my former student Adam Gurri – explains why pedestrian economics (here, alas, peddled by Paul Krugman) is mistaken to measure the contribution of entrepreneurs by how many workers they directly employ.


February 4, 2012, 9:35 am, 948230

Steven Horwitz

I'm currently in Brazil at a summer seminar for young Brazilians interested in libertarian ideas sponsored by the Atlas Foundation and OrdemLivre.org in the beautiful mountain town of Petropolis outside of Rio. On Thursday, I participated in a debate at the equivalent of the Chamber ...


February 4, 2012, 9:03 am, 948229
The data released last week was solid, with the exception of house prices. Both the Case-Shiller index for November, and the CoreLogic index for December showed additional house price declines and new post bubble lows.

The employment report was well above expectations. There were 243,000 payroll jobs ...


February 4, 2012, 8:37 am, 948228

If you ignore the mindless tittle-tattle, David Miliband’s New Statesman article raises a genuine issue: what should be the left’s attitude to the state? He writes:

The weaknesses of the "big society" should not blind us to the policy and political dead end ...


February 4, 2012, 8:05 am, 948227

One related story is here.

Addendum: Qatar, by the way, last year paid about $250 million for a Cezanne “Card Players.”  The details ...


February 4, 2012, 8:04 am, 948226

… is from page 119 of  the 1978 edition of David Friedman‘s 1973 The Machinery of Freedom:

Part of freedom is the right of each of us to go to hell in his own fashion.


February 4, 2012, 7:34 am, 948225
Inquiring minds note a stunning drop in the price for doing God's Work. Last year Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein received a salary of a $600,000 as well as a stock bonus worth $12.6 million.

This year the base salary for doing God's work rose to $2 ...


February 4, 2012, 6:47 am, 948224

$0.03: The average cost per viewer for thirty second of ad time during the Super Bowl.

super

ZUMAPRESS.com

The average advertiser during the Super Bowl will pay about $3.5 million for one thirty ...


February 4, 2012, 6:37 am, 948223

The People's Money: How Voters Will Balance the Budget and Eliminate the Federal Debt
By Scott Rasmussen
Interview with author via Newsmax
Independent pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen tells Newsmax that the real federal debt is ...


February 4, 2012, 5:04 am, 948222

February 4, 2012, 2:05 am, 948220

Rogoff’s real hero, however, was Bobby Fischer, the American chess champion of the 1970s. He remembers following the games from the famous Fischer-Spassky world chess championship in 1972, and being awed by Fischer’s play – “It was like seeing the hand of God at work; the originality, the simplicity.” He ...


February 3, 2012, 11:03 pm, 948215
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 3, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Quiet week for the Unofficial Bank List with ...


February 3, 2012, 9:34 pm, 948211


February 3, 2012, 9:34 pm, 948210
Shortly after Dutch finance minister, said "We want no further delays" came news of further delays. The reason: Greek political parties all refuse to go along with more austerity measures.

Please consider Greece’s leaders oppose new austerity measures

All three party leaders in Greece’s teetering national unity government ...


February 3, 2012, 9:26 pm, 948209


February 3, 2012, 8:46 pm, 948207
Nicola Borri, Gianfranco di Vaio, Giuseppe Ragusa, 4 February 2012

Will Italy be able cut its debt and abide by the new EU fiscal rules? This column presents a simulation of the evolution of the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio. It finds that Italy’s borrowing and saving plans are sustainable – even at ...


February 3, 2012, 8:46 pm, 948206
Purify my mind, again.


February 3, 2012, 7:26 pm, 948204
Tim Harford hands out tips on the important practical task of getting your email under control


February 3, 2012, 7:03 pm, 948199

Employment growth accelerates along several dimensions: nonfarm payroll, an alternative measure of nonfarm payroll, private employment, hours, and civilian employment (report here). However, JEC vice chairman Brady (JEC-Republicans) states in a press release: "Job Numbers Mask Underlying Job Weakness."


February 3, 2012, 7:03 pm, 948198
Some readers sent me a link to some terrible analysis that argued over 1 million people left the labor force in January. I pointed out the error. Apparently Rick Santelli at CNBC made the same mistake and reads the wrong blogs!

The Bonddad blog points out ...


February 3, 2012, 6:38 pm, 948197

by Chidem Kurdas

The Republican primaries have been all-out fights, with a series of contenders showing strength in polls and challenging the establishment favorite Mitt Romney, only to fall back after the initial success. Newt Gingrich is the latest to rise and, after his loss in the Florida primary, presumably to ...


February 3, 2012, 6:04 pm, 948194


February 3, 2012, 6:04 pm, 948193
by Beverly Mann

Thomas Hartmann writes via Truthout:

Most Americans don't realize that the idea that ‘corporations are people’ and ‘money is speech’ are concepts that were never, ever considered or promoted or even passed by any legislature in the history of America. Neither were they ever ...


February 3, 2012, 5:33 pm, 948191

Via No Depression:

Athens, GA: Some of the greatest songs were written to give voice to anxiety, despair and unwanted change. “After it’s Gone”, a new single just released by Patterson Hood and the Downtown 13, was inspired by the threat of a Walmart in the heart of the downtown ...


February 3, 2012, 5:33 pm, 948190
Readers respond to a post about anticapitalist sections of the bible with some other examples.


February 3, 2012, 5:26 pm, 948189

Comparisons can be useful in determining where the economy is at any given point in time, and today's Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides another opportunity to do just that. According to that report, the U.S. economy added 243,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in ...


February 3, 2012, 5:26 pm, 948187
A substandard romantic novel is trivial, whereas a ruined weekend tryst in Paris is a minor tragedy, writes Tim Harford


February 3, 2012, 5:03 pm, 948179

Tim Duy:

Good News on Employment, by Tim Duy: With only a minimal drag from the government sector, the February employment report shined on the back of a solid gain in private sector hiring:

The last couple ...


February 3, 2012, 5:03 pm, 948178
The first graph below shows the number of total construction payroll jobs in the U.S. including both residential and non-residential since 1969.

Construction employment increased by 21 thousand jobs in January, after increasing by 74 thousand jobs in all of 2011. Last year was the first year with ...


February 3, 2012, 4:46 pm, 948177


February 3, 2012, 4:46 pm, 948176
Some light at the end of the jobs tunnel?


February 3, 2012, 4:46 pm, 948175

Dimitri Papadimitriou and Randall Wray deliver a second installment of their joint assessment of the risks that a renewed global financial crisis might be triggered by events in Europe or the United States.  In their latest one-pager they move past disputes over etiology and lay out their solutions for both ...


February 3, 2012, 4:05 pm, 948174

The Senate voted to ban executive bonuses at Fannie and Freddie.

After buttering up the public for another round of quantitative easing, the buzz today (at CNN, Fin Times and the WSJ) is that the January jobs report will kill QE3 forever.

The census bureau released new homeownership ...


February 3, 2012, 4:05 pm, 948173

In China a fapioa – the official receipt used for expense claims has a resale face value of 2 – 10% of face value – leaving one behind in a restaurant or taxi is the equivalent of giving a tip (in a culture where tipping is uncommon) and not requesting ...


February 3, 2012, 4:04 pm, 948172

Here’s a letter to Washington, DC’s, WTOP Radio:

During today’s 11am hour you interviewed a Nevada GOP official who listed “strong enforcement of drug laws” as a “family value.”

His claim is questionable.  Consider this observation by Pepperdine University Professor James Q. Wilson, a noted conservative and explicit proponent of the ‘war ...


February 3, 2012, 4:04 pm, 948171
David Beckworth:

global economic growth over the past few decades has outpaced the capacity of the world economy to produce truly safe assets

Really? The U.S. could have just deficit-spent more, crediting people’s/businesses’ checking accounts and thereby increasing the global stock of the world’s safest asset: U.S. dollars.

It could (by ...


February 3, 2012, 3:03 pm, 948155

With all the cheering about the jobs report this morning showing 243,000 jobs created last month and a fall in theunemployment rate to 8.3 percent, I thought it might be useful to present a contrary voice (especially since I'm at a conference and don't have time to do ...


February 3, 2012, 2:47 pm, 948154

Hiring looks like a rabbit, but expect job growth to shift into a slower pace soon. U.S. non-farm payrolls posted gains of more than 200,000 in December and January. That pace of hiring helped to bring down the jobless rate, which slipped to a nearly three-year low of 8.3%.


February 3, 2012, 2:46 pm, 948153


February 3, 2012, 2:45 pm, 948152

WRITING on the surprisingly strong January jobs report, my colleague says:

Will the better tone to the jobs market deter the Federal Reserve from further monetary easing? Not yet. Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, acknowledged the moderately better tone to economic data yesterday, but the last official Fed statement ...


February 3, 2012, 2:45 pm, 948151

THE treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a permanent bail-out fund for the euro zone, was signed in Brussels on February 2nd. It now needs to be ratified by the 17 members of the single currency, with the aim of coming into force in July. The ESM is designed ...


February 3, 2012, 2:44 pm, 948150

Do you receive a tax deduction for the interest paid on your mortgage or for the taxes you pay to your state and local governments? Would you think about those deductions in the same way if instead of seeing a reduction in taxes for those items the federal government instead ...


February 3, 2012, 2:36 pm, 948149

“Economic conditions are entirely different today than they were in Reagan’s era, and different conditions demand different policies. Those who say otherwise are simply engaging in cookie-cutter economics — proposing whatever was popular and seemed to work once, without regard to changing circumstances”—Bruce Barlett in a WaPo piece entitled ...


February 3, 2012, 2:05 pm, 948148

The RGDP growth rate has been 1.6% in the 4 quarters since late 2010, which is below everyone’s estimate of trend growth (except perhaps Tyler Cowen…

There is much more at the link, from Scott Sumner.  Of course Michael Mandel, Peter Thiel, Garry Kasparov, and some others would quality as ...


February 3, 2012, 2:05 pm, 948147

February 3, 2012, 2:05 pm, 948146
(February 3, 2012 01:40 PM, by David Henderson) On Thursday evening, Feb. 9, I'll be giving a public talk at the University of Rochester in Rochester, New York. It will go from 7:30 to 9:00, with ample time during that time period for Q&A. The talk is titled:... (0 ...


February 3, 2012, 1:34 pm, 948140
Quick Notes About the "Falling" Unemployment Rate

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,565,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,145,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,420,000. In January, the Civilian Labor Force rose ...


February 3, 2012, 1:33 pm, 948139
A look at how far the United States economy has to go before it fully recovers from the Great Recession.


February 3, 2012, 1:03 pm, 948128

I am here today:

NBER EF&G Research Meeting
Nir Jaimovich and Guido Lorenzoni, Organizers
February 3, 2012
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

PROGRAM

8:30 am Continental Breakfast

9:00 am Gary Gorton, Yale University Guillermo Ordonez, Yale University Collateral Crises Discussant: Veronica Guerrieri, University ...


February 3, 2012, 1:03 pm, 948127
Catching up: The January ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.8%, up sharply from 53.0% in December. The employment index increased in January to 57.4%, up from 49.8% in December. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: December 2011 Non-Manufacturing ...


February 3, 2012, 12:47 pm, 948126

Friday’s monthly unemployment report showing an unexpectedly large gain in new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3% from 8.5% is welcome news for President Barack Obama, whose biggest challenge in the November election is the economy.

The White House pointed to the report as more evidence ...


February 3, 2012, 12:47 pm, 948125

President Barack Obama used Friday’s monthly jobs report to criticize the Republican candidates hoping to unseat him this fall, saying unequivocally that “the economy is growing stronger.”

“The recovery is speeding up,” Mr. Obama said Friday in remarks at a fire station in Northern Virginia. “We can’t go back to the ...


February 3, 2012, 12:47 pm, 948124

Whenever the unemployment rate drops, economically savvy observers know to ask a key question: What happened to the employment-population ratio?

Under the government’s ...


February 3, 2012, 12:47 pm, 948123

Note: This post updates the that column originally appeared as the Ahead of the Tape with the latest employment numbers.

Call it the case of the missing start-ups.

It isn’t small businesses so much as new businesses that typically power job growth during economic recoveries. Trouble is, that engine isn’t firing ...


February 3, 2012, 12:47 pm, 948122

The News Hub panel provides comprehensive coverage of the improving U.S. employment picture. The Labor Department reported 243,000 non-farm payroll jobs were added in January.

...


February 3, 2012, 12:46 pm, 948121


February 3, 2012, 12:46 pm, 948120


February 3, 2012, 12:46 pm, 948119

Some indigestible food for thought:  there is not a single state in the Union—not one—in which the top 1% of income earners pay a higher rate of state taxes than the bottom 20%.  For the majority of states, it’s not even close:  the poorest 20% pay somewhere between double and ...


February 3, 2012, 12:45 pm, 948117

How good does must the economy get to be an asset for Barack Obama's re-election? The tough arithmetic is captured in the nearby table, which is drawn from the latest Economist/YouGov poll. Mr Obama's approval rating on the economy is deeply negative. It would have to get considerablybetter than it ...


February 3, 2012, 12:45 pm, 948118

Is the jobs recovery finally for real?

It certainly feels that way. Before getting into the caveats, let's look at January's solid employment report. Non-farm employment jumped 243,000, or 0.2%, from December, the best in nine months. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3%, a three-year low, ...


February 3, 2012, 12:36 pm, 948116
So apparently Susan G. Komen has reversed its decision to fund Planned Parenthood.  Just as it wasn't surprising that they might want to gently disconnect themselves from the abortion rights movement, it's also not shocking that once this issue became political, pro-choicers mobilized faster and harder than pro-lifers did.  For ...


February 3, 2012, 12:35 pm, 948115

This paper of mine on the Turkish economy was completed more than a year ago but has just been published in the new journal of the Turkish Economic Association. Re-reading it, I feel it captures well the missed opportunities of the last few ...


February 3, 2012, 12:04 pm, 948113

In today’s European Wall Street Journal, Arnold Kling eloquently and concisely explains his idea of “PSST” – patterns of sustainable specialization and trade – and highlights how an understanding of the economy based upon PSST differs fundamentally from an understanding based on Keynesianism.  I encourage you to read the ...


February 3, 2012, 12:04 pm, 948112
This is another look at the idea I put forth here, that - contra the standard economic idea that consumption depends on wealth - I believe that consumption depends on income. It's worth stressing that wealth and income are not independent variables. Wealth is the accumulation of unspent income ...


February 3, 2012, 11:34 am, 948110
Untenable pension promises made by corrupt politicians to corrupt unions in an unholy alliance is about to sink another city. Please consider Providence is facing bankruptcy

Rhode Island's capital city will be in bankruptcy by June if it doesn't get help resolving its financial crisis.

That was ...


February 3, 2012, 11:34 am, 948109

By Bill Testa and Norman Wang

In the Midwest, the terms “industrial” and “cities” are almost synonymous. Though agriculture has been important to growth and development, the region’s economy was built on manufacturing, and the sector continues to be prominent—for both small towns and large metropolis alike.

However, labor and income ...


February 3, 2012, 11:34 am, 948108
Good news today about employment. The 243,000 increase in jobsis a very solid number.The graph below showshow the prices at Intrade reacted when the news was released at 8:30 am. President Obama's probability of being reelected rose by ...


February 3, 2012, 11:33 am, 948107
Young people who are good at math are told that being an actuary might be a good job for them. As I understand it, actuaries take historical data and calculate conditional probabilities such as; what is the probability that a 45 year old white man will die in the next ...


February 3, 2012, 11:33 am, 948106
This is a recovery led by the private sector. And while seasonal adjustments may have made January look better than it really was, job growth appears strong.


February 3, 2012, 11:25 am, 948104
Is the business truly worth the astounding estimated market value when Facebook finally completes an Initial Public Offering? Will profit be paramount or will Facebook have other key objectives beyond the bottom line? Can the explosive growth of the business be maintained or will concerns about online privacy act as ...


February 3, 2012, 11:03 am, 948092
There were some revisions this morning to previous employment reports. This included the annual benchmark revision to state unemployment insurance (UI) records, and benchmarking the population controls to the 2010 Census data and an update to seasonal factors.

The benchmark revision increased total employment in March 2011 by ...


February 3, 2012, 11:03 am, 948091
This was a solid report and well above expectations. However there is still a long ways to go for a healthy labor market with solid wage gains.

There were 243,000 payroll jobs added in January, with 257,000 private sector jobs added, and 14,000 government jobs lost. ...


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948090

Fewer Americans are being laid off than in previous months as the labor market strengthens. The number of workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits—an indicator of the pace of layoffs—fell by 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000. That’s well below the 400,000-plus new claims filed weekly in ...


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948088

According to one little-followed measure, the economy created nearly 500,000 jobs last month — about twice as many as the government’s official figure of 243,000.

To gauge employment, the Labor Department uses two separate ...


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948089
The Federal Reserve's newly expanded forecasts of the economic and monetary policy outlook are at best shots in the dark that should be viewed cautiously by financial markets, a top central bank official said Thursday.


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948087

Economists and others weigh in on the increase in jobs and drop in the unemployment rate.

–Our quick read through of today’s report shows that this is unquestionably a positive report in nearly every way. Average hourly earnings isn’t as strong as we’d like it to be ...


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948086


February 3, 2012, 10:47 am, 948085


February 3, 2012, 10:44 am, 948083
President Obama’s 2011 State of the Union Address contained ringing language on corporate tax reform:

Over the years, a parade of lobbyists has rigged the tax code to benefit particular companies and industries. Those with accountants or lawyers to work the system can end up paying ...


February 3, 2012, 10:44 am, 948082
Some highlights of today's employment report:

1. Temporary employment reached a 3.5-year high in January of 2.4 million jobs, the highest level since May 2008 (see ...


February 3, 2012, 10:38 am, 948081

Today's employment report from the U.S. Labor Department delivered a hefty blow against the idea that recession risk is high for the immediate future. Private nonfarm payrolls rose by a net 257,000 in January (total nonfarm payrolls rose by a slightly lower 243,000 because of a 14,000 decrease in ...


February 3, 2012, 10:36 am, 948080

Since August, the unemployment rate has dropped from 9.1% to, as of the last report in January, 8.5%. Good news, without question, although incomplete given the fact that several of those monthly drops occurred because the ...


February 3, 2012, 10:36 am, 948079
Why Your Prius Will Kill our Highways:

This isn't a new problem, but it's getting worse. Since back in the Eisenhower era, the federal government has maintained a Highway Trust Fund, paid for mostly by taxes on fuel, that helps cover the repair and construction of our country's roads, ...


February 3, 2012, 10:35 am, 948078

What mean reversion? This is two fantastic jobs reports back-to-back, with the second even better than the first.

You thought the December jobs report was great? I certainly did — but it’s been revised, now, and it’s even better than was first reported. And the January report is positively ...


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948077


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948076

"Libertarian Political Realism" by David S. D’Amato

Political realism — as both an experiential or historical matter and a methodological one — must be at the center of a thoroughgoing libertarian project, informing our criticisms and proposed solutions. ...


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948075

In 1789, the political price for our federal constitution included a bailout of the 13 indebted states. But it was by refusing to bail out the states a second time in the 1840s that the United States preserved its federal system, with substantial fiscal independence for state governments. Facing a ...


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948074

All good news, 243k up but lots more information in the numbers, try @JustinWolfers or @BetseyStevenson for details and interpretation.  The “big loser” here?: Old Keynesianism.  You really can get a recovery when the real shocks are moderately positive.  You will note, as we have been told many ...


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948073
(February 3, 2012 08:19 AM, by Arnold Kling) The Adam Smith Institute has just released a paper of mine on patterns of sustainable specialization and trade. An excerpt: The PSST approach drops the assumption that production technology is known. Instead, the Smithian division of labour and Ricardian comparative... (1 ...


February 3, 2012, 10:05 am, 948072
(February 3, 2012 09:37 AM, by Arnold Kling) He writes, My guess is that most intellectuals underestimate just how dysfunctional most firms are. This is part of a discussion of why businesses pay consultants. I think a pretty standard view is that CEOs bring in consultants to help... (0 ...


February 3, 2012, 10:04 am, 948071

… is from page 61 of Frank Trentmann’s important 2008 book Free Trade Nation – a book that I thank Walter Grinder for bringing to my attention.  In the section of the book from which the following quotation is taken, Trentmann is discussing Joseph Chamberlain’s “Tariff Reform” – an ...


February 3, 2012, 10:04 am, 948070
The employment report was the strongest this cycle with payroll employment rising 243,000 and the household survey reporting a 176,000 increase. Moreover, hours worked rose 0.6% as compared to the 0.2% norm over most of this cycle.In January government employment was little changed as compared to the 276,000 ...


February 3, 2012, 9:04 am, 948056

The good news? It looks to be much better than all the new shows from last year. The bad news? It's another CSI. Still, with broadcast television being what it is, you should make room on your fall TV viewing schedule for CSI: Legoland! ...


February 3, 2012, 9:03 am, 948055
From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, ...


February 3, 2012, 8:44 am, 948053
IBTraveler -- Spirit Airlines announced this week that it would add a $2 "unintended consequences fee" to all tickets due to new federal regulation aimed at protecting consumers. The "Department of Transportation Unintended Consequences Fee" was added to each ticket effective immediately ...


February 3, 2012, 8:36 am, 948052

Judging of what we are by what we ought to be, I have persuaded myself that this body might accept this reasonable proposition. The proposition is peace. ...


February 3, 2012, 8:36 am, 948051

Political realism — as both an experiential or historical matter and a methodological one — must be at the center of a thoroughgoing libertarian project, informing our criticisms and proposed solutions. It can furnish the fresh approach to social questions people around the ...


February 3, 2012, 8:35 am, 948050

Edward Wyatt makes a very good point today — why is the SEC doing big favors for big banks, every time it slaps a fine on them?

If a bank settles a fraud case, it automatically loses certain privileges, like the ability to issue debt securities opportunistically, without going through ...


February 3, 2012, 8:34 am, 948049

What does Apple owe it’s workers? I’ve read some silly proposals since the big New York Times story on the difficult and sometimes dangerous conditions in it’s factories. For instance, the idea that Apple should give some of it’s massive cash horde to workers in China. But Apple and ...


February 3, 2012, 7:34 am, 948045


February 3, 2012, 7:33 am, 948044
The opacity surrounding health care prices and the practice of charging different buyers different prices for identical goods or services contribute mightily to the cost of health care, but at the least the former may be on the way out, an economist writes.


February 3, 2012, 7:25 am, 948043
A wonderful opportunity to teach economics and business at George Heriot’s School in Edinburgh here…


February 3, 2012, 7:25 am, 948042
Many thanks to tutor2u’s Amy Chapman for letting us have first news of this teaching opportunity in the lovely spa town of Cheltenham.


February 3, 2012, 7:03 am, 948040

Who does Romney care about?:

Romney Isn’t Concerned, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...Earlier this week, Mr. Romney told a startled CNN interviewer, “I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.”

Faced with criticism, the candidate has claimed that he didn’t mean ...


February 3, 2012, 6:46 am, 948039


February 3, 2012, 6:05 am, 948038

All from the most recent issue of New York magazine.

"How Much Does an A-List Actor Make . . . and Spend?" Interesting and something I'll bet you won't hear our president complain about:

Payments don't go to the actor (or producer) but to a personal corporation subject ...


February 3, 2012, 6:05 am, 948037

Loyal MR reader V has a request:

1. Engage with the arguments by Sailer and his ilk that Mexican immigration is different than the waves of the 1920′s, 1880′s, etc.

Specifically, they cite the example of New Mexico, current Latin America, evolving California, etc. where class-based hierarchies that closely mirror IQ differences ...


February 3, 2012, 6:05 am, 948036
More good news for the economy with the purchasing managers' index for the service sector up from 54 in December to 56 in January, a 10-month high. This is what Markit said: "The UK service sector started 2012 in positive...


February 3, 2012, 5:25 am, 948033
Another great infographic below, this time from mint.com, comparing all the important indicators (and the cost of a Big Mac) in an easy to digest graphic.

...


February 3, 2012, 5:04 am, 948031

February 3, 2012, 5:04 am, 948030

Tim Duy:

How This Gets Even Uglier, by Tim Duy: At this risk of beating a dead horse, I reiterate that I don't see how the European situation comes to a happy conclusion. Conditions in Greece appear to be deteriorating rapidly. Via Athens News, ...


February 3, 2012, 3:34 am, 948026
On January 30, 25 of 27 nations signed the Merkozy accord calling for strict budget discipline and "quasi-automatic sanctions" for nations that violate budget rules. Only the UK and Czech Republic refused to sign.

Following that ceremonious signing it took precisely two days for European bureaucrats to propose "Application ...


February 3, 2012, 2:05 am, 948025
(February 3, 2012 12:23 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I have a predictably optimistic take on Charles Murray's Coming Apart. But these two graphs did indeed shock me. The first contrasts divorce rates for working class ("Fishtown") and professional ("Belmont") whites: Notice: Among professionals, divorce plateaued over three decades... (0 ...


February 3, 2012, 1:34 am, 948020
American Airlines filed for bankruptcy in November 2011. Here is the question at hand: Will Taxpayers Be On The Hook For American Airlines' Pensions?

American Airlines needs $18.5 billion to cover its pension promises to current and former employees, but it has only set aside ...