Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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- Recent Entries


May 30, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1483218
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May 30, 2015, 4:05 pm, 1483217

Agreement has been reached on the controversial wage agreement for members of four Icelandic unions. This means that major strike action will be called off.

The Icelandic Union of Commercial and Office Workers (VR), the Commercial Federation of Iceland (LÍV), Flóabandalagið and Stéttarfélag Vesturlands have agreed to a final version of ...


May 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1483216
(May 30, 2015 03:56 PM, by David Henderson) It seems as if there's a strong case for the federal government to charge Hillary Clinton with a fairly serious crime. See here for more details. A former prosecutor named Andy McCarthy states: Given that Congress's array of campaign finance... (0 COMMENTS)


May 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1483215
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Los Angeles Times:

Fashion critic Booth Moore is clearly moved by Andrew Morgan’s new documentary, “The True Cost,” ...


May 30, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1483213

For those who might want to go. (It's the "world's biggest desert area after the Sahara".)

Also travel-related: "16 incredible European destinations that haven't been discovered by tourists".


May 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1483202

Paul Krugman:

Last Exit Before Chaos: There’s an odd summer-of-1914 feel to the current state of the Greek crisis. While some of the main players are, rightly, desperate to find a way to head off Grexit and all it entails, others – on the creditor as well as the ...


May 30, 2015, 2:05 pm, 1483200

May 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1483184

Robert Sugden talks to Mark Thoma about his work on 'Regret Theory', as featured in The Economic Journal 125th Anniversary Special Issue, available for free online here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecoj.12
230/abstract

Here's an example: Regret theory in practice.


May 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1483180

May 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1483148
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May 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1483096
The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the April Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday, May ISM manufacturing index on Friday, May vehicle sales on Friday, April Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the May ISM non-manufacturing index also on ...


May 30, 2015, 8:35 am, 1483095
● Hubris: Why Economists Failed to Predict the Crisisand How to Avoid the Next One By Meghnad Desai Review via Times Higher Education Far from being finally tamed, as much of the economics profession liked to boast, boom and bust was just on hold for a while. As Desai argues, ...


May 30, 2015, 8:04 am, 1483093
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 284 of my colleague Walter William’s new book, American Contempt for Liberty, which is a collection ...


May 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1483071

A fine movie now made just a teensy bit better.


May 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1483070

I'm not at all sure why you'd want to, but your mileage may vary.


May 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1483069



(p. A25) "What I find destructive," says David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "is the message that if you don't get into the top 1 percent then you're out of the game. That's deeply, deeply incorrect."

Autor's own research shows that skills differences are four times ...


May 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1483040
The Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C. Bloomberg News

The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates by the end of the year. Even the first ...


May 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1483039

May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483030
James Bullard says it’s time for the Fed to consider adopting a nominal gross domestic product target–and he’s got a model to prove it. Reuters

The Federal ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483031

Remarks made by a top European Central Bank policymaker to a private audience last week drew fresh scrutiny when a senior European Union official requested more information about the incident.

In a letter addressed to ECB President Mario Draghi dated May 27, the European ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, asked the ECB to ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483029

 

U.S. economic growth for the first quarter is expected to be revised down Friday, partly because the trade deficit was far wider than previously estimated, as imports surged. 


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483027

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank said Friday the measures taken to support foreign exchange liquidity and long-term borrowing help to buffer the country’s economy against the global shocks and said it may take additional measures if deemed necessary.

In its twice-yearly financial stability report published on its website, the central bank said households ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483028

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota reiterated Thursday that he thinks it would be a mistake for the Fed to raise its benchmark short-term interest rate this year.

The Fed “can only achieve its congressionally mandated price and employment goals by being extraordinarily patient in reducing the level of ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483026
An investor looks at stock information at a securities firm in Shanghai late last year. Emerging market economies with stronger fundamentals are better positioned to weather policy spillovers, according ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483023
Getty Images

The nature of employment seems to be undergoing radical change. Among the trends weakening the traditional model of steady, full-time employment are on-demand work platforms like ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483024
A new Cleveland Fed paper finds no support for fears of hyperinflation due to bond buying. BLOOMBERG

Worries that the Federal Reserve’s bond buys would lead to runaway inflation were ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483025

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, May 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: GDP Revisions Show Economy Exposed to Shocks Bullard: Look for New Ways to ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483022
The U.S. economy faltered in the first quarter of 2015, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. Here’s a quick look at the report.


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483018
Next week’s economic calendar is as crowded as the Republican field of presidential candidates. Take the time to watch for these five items.


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483019
Lucky graduates of George Washington University this month in Washington, D.C. ALEX BRANDON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

There’s mounting evidence it’s a particularly good time to graduate from college.

In ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483020
U.S. economic growth slowed, but economists expect a second-quarter bounce. Real private inventories contributed less than the initially estimated, one reason for the downward revision that also suggests the second quarter ...


May 30, 2015, 3:03 am, 1483021
The Commerce Department tries to account for recurring seasonal factors–things like weather, holidays and production schedules–to better identify underlying trends in the economy. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY ...


May 30, 2015, 2:05 am, 1483017

Some of the faux companies even hold strikes — a common occurrence in France. Axisco, a virtual payment processing center in Val d’Oise, recently staged a fake protest, with slogans and painted banners, to teach workers’ rights and to train human resources staff members to calm tensions.

The article,


May 30, 2015, 2:05 am, 1483016

The still-underrated Todd Kliman interviews her:

I’ve been given special powers, and I appoint you czar (funny, isn’t it, how we have so many appointed czars in this unaristocratic country) of food in the US. What is your first order of business? What sorts of laws do you push ...


May 30, 2015, 12:04 am, 1483006


May 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1482972
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Posts Moderate Gain in April

Driven by stronger same-stores sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in April. The RPI – a monthly ...


May 29, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1482971

Socio-economic conditions like wealth and education have been demonstrated to be powerful predictors of life expectancy. Similarly, over the 20th century, a tendency for women to outlive men has emerged in much of the Western world. Using data for countries from all around the world, this column shows how socio-economic ...


May 29, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1482943

I recently attended a lecture given by Arnold Kling, who is a former Federal Reserve economist on the Board of Governors staff, former senior economist at Freddie Mac, and all-around financial and monetary expert. The talk was very interesting--his appraisal of the housing collapse is that it was ...


May 29, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1482942
Next week’s economic calendar is as crowded as the Republican field of presidential candidates. Take the time to watch for these five items.


May 29, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1482941
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May 29, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1482939
Illinois House Bill 298 would allow Illinois municipalities to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. That bill is endorsed by Governor Bruce Rauner, and currently rests in the house rules committee.

As soon as Illinois passes Bill 298, a number of Illinois cities are highly likely to file bankruptcy as ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482878

Manal Corwin is the National Leader of the International Tax practice of KPMG LLP and Principal in Charge of Washington National Tax—International Tax Policy. She is the former Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Tax Affairs in the Office of Tax Policy at the U.S. Treasury Department.

Ms. Corwin is ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482877

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank said Friday the measures taken to support foreign exchange liquidity and long-term borrowing help to buffer the country’s economy against the global shocks and said it may take additional measures if deemed necessary.

In its twice-yearly financial stability report published on its website, the central bank said households ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482875

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, May 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: GDP Revisions Show Economy Exposed to Shocks Bullard: Look for New Ways to ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482876
An investor looks at stock information at a securities firm in Shanghai late last year. Emerging market economies with stronger fundamentals are better positioned to weather policy spillovers, according ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482873
Getty Images

The nature of employment seems to be undergoing radical change. Among the trends weakening the traditional model of steady, full-time employment are on-demand work platforms like ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482872
The U.S. economy faltered in the first quarter of 2015, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. Here’s a quick look at the report.


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482874
A new Cleveland Fed paper finds no support for fears of hyperinflation due to bond buying. BLOOMBERG

Worries that the Federal Reserve’s bond buys would lead to runaway inflation were ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482869
Lucky graduates of George Washington University this month in Washington, D.C. ALEX BRANDON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

There’s mounting evidence it’s a particularly good time to graduate from college.

In ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482871
The Commerce Department tries to account for recurring seasonal factors–things like weather, holidays and production schedules–to better identify underlying trends in the economy. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482868
Next week’s economic calendar is as crowded as the Republican field of presidential candidates. Take the time to watch for these five items.


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482870
U.S. economic growth slowed, but economists expect a second-quarter bounce. Real private inventories contributed less than the initially estimated, one reason for the downward revision that also suggests the second quarter ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482867

The conclusion of the most recent speech by Narayana Kocherlakota, President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

I am an economist, and economics is often, with good reason, called the “dismal” science. But my message to you today is one of hope and optimism.

From 2006 to 2009, we saw a ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1482866
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in April to 1.73% from 1.78% in March. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.13% in April 2014, and this is the lowest level since September 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in ...


May 29, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1482865
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May 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1482863
(May 29, 2015 02:42 PM, by David Henderson) A number of commenters on my proposed bet with Bob Murphy seem to have missed the point. Rather than respond to each of them in comments that I know few people will read, I'm responding here. Various people have argued... (2 COMMENTS)


May 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1482862

May 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1482860

April may or may not be the cruelest month, but this year April was particularly cruel for Affordable Care Act subsidy recipients. A recent H&R Block analysis says that 61 percent of tax filers will have to repay part of the premium subsidies they received to buy health insurance ...


May 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1482861

Friday morning, Gallup released the results of a survey showing that more Americans call themselves pro-choice than pro-life by 50 to 44 percent. Gallup noted that this time was the first time since 2008 that the pro-choice label had a statistically significant lead over the pro-life one. Several other recent ...


May 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1482856
Unexpected Chicago PMI Crash

Looking for signs of strength? You will not find them in today's Chicago PMI report.

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was for a 53.1 expansion reading. Instead, the PMI came in at 46.2, well below the bottom of the consensus range of 51.0 ...


May 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1482795

Last year we wrote that negative GDP growth illustrates the need for bonus depreciation. The same is true exactly one year later.

This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its first quarter GDP growth number downward. The revised estimate pegged GDP growth at -0.7 percent for ...


May 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1482794

May 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1482793
Excuse this pet peeve, but for some reason, when a business executive is interviewed on CNBC (and elsewhere), they are asked about economics in addition to their assumed areas of expertise. News flash: Business executives are NOT experts in economics (This should be called the "Jack Welch rule").


May 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1482791
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May 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1482792
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May 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1482789
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May 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1482790
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May 29, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1482788
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May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482783
(May 29, 2015 12:42 PM, by Scott Sumner) Over at TheMoneyIllusion I discuss a new paper by James Bullard, et al, on the case for NGDP targeting. The Wall Street Journal reported some additional comments by Bullard: He said his model is consistent with the Fed maintaining its... (0 COMMENTS)


May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482782
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses national security on Fox News' 'America's Newsroom.'


May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482781
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses recent events in China and Iraq on Fox Business Network's 'Varney &Co.'


May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482779

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs published a modstly upbeat research note suggesting the US economy is doing better than we think because we are mismeasuring productivity. The bank argues that “potential biases in the GDP statistics resulting from the growth of software and digital content” means “we would be ...


May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482780

Should we replace the income tax with a national sales tax? Some commonsense on the FairTax by the Tax Policy Center:

The tax is designed to protect low-income people from higher taxes via a large new cash transfer program called a “prebate.”  Every household would get a cash transfer equal ...


May 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1482778

As a teacher, I can tell you that my job is comprised of three, distinct elements—passion, instructional practice, and…frustration. As an avid reader of anything and everything to do with education, I know that there is plenty written on the first two components, but not nearly enough on the latter. ...


May 29, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1482765
First quarter GDP came in at -0.7% pretty much in line with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of -0.8%.

First-quarter GDP was revised down about as expected, to minus 0.7 percent vs expectations for minus 0.8 and compared with an initial reading of plus 0.2 percent. Updated source data ...


May 29, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1482764

The Onion:

Stating that any damage would be limited to just a handful of species that somehow managed to survive that long, officials from the Shell Oil Company assured the public Wednesday that most of the Arctic wildlife living near their proposed drilling site will be extinct well before their next ...


May 29, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1482763

David Coady, Ian W.H. Parry, Louis Sears and Baoping Shang:

This paper provides a comprehensive, updated picture of energy subsidies at the global and regional levels. It focuses on the broad notion of post-tax energy subsidies, which arise when consumer prices are below supply costs plus a tax to reflect environmental ...


May 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1482702
Lucky graduates of George Washington University this month in Washington, D.C. ALEX BRANDON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

There’s mounting evidence it’s a particularly good time to graduate from college.

In ...


May 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1482701

Policymakers have little idea how many people live:

The Insecure American, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: America remains, despite the damage inflicted by the Great Recession and its aftermath, a very rich country. But many Americans are economically insecure, with little protection from life’s risks. ... But all ...


May 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1482700
From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for April 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 68. Over ...


May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482698
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May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482699
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May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482697
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May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482696
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May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482695
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May 29, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1482694
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May 29, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1482693
As expected, US GDP for the first quarter was revised down to a modest decrease in today’s update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economic activity slumped 0.7% in the first three months of the year in seasonally adjusted annualized terms, below the mild 0.2% rise previously reported. The negative ...


May 29, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1482692

Heading into today’s release of the first revision of the Gross Domestic Product numbers for the first three months of the year, most analysts were expecting bad news of some sort. Last month’s first report had already shown ...


May 29, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1482691
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May 29, 2015, 12:05 pm, 1482686

Most indie films and documentaries don’t get to most markets. It’s hard for a theatre to know which of the many indie films audiences really want to see and without the scale of a NYC it doesn’t make sense for theatres to gamble on a screening that might not make ...


May 29, 2015, 12:05 pm, 1482685

May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482684
(Don Boudreaux)

Further evidence of the validity of the point that I made in my most-recent Pittsburgh Tribune-Review column is ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482681

Let’s say, just for kicks, you murdered your husband (or wife). Your neighbors have been suspicious ever since your nightly arguments suddenly stopped, right around the time you put something large in your trunk and drove off in the middle of the night. Now they see you driving his car ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482682
Fellow Marc Thiessen discusses the United States fight against ISIS on Fox News' 'The Kelly File'


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482683

Rick Santorum is running for president, and every conservative and Republican should listen to him.

I can see readers’ eyes rolling now. Many conservatives, libertarians, and moderate Republicans dislike Santorum. They may think he’s a horrible messenger. They may find him terribly wrong on some issues. They may think he has ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482679

So the US economy went and did a very bad thing. Instead of growing during the first three months of this year — government’s first estimate was a 0.2% increase — it shrank. Now positive is sure better than negative, especially when many speculated/hoped/prayed/wished 2015 would see a marked acceleration in ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482677

“The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee” is a must-read Q&A from Harvard Business Review. I’ve written often about the two MIT academics and their work on labor markets and the impact of technological change. Two things from the HBR interview that I want to ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482678

India just announced that growth in gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 7.3 percent during the fiscal year April 2014 – March 2015. This will be seized upon by some as world-beating, even ahead of China’s. It will be heralded as a sign of India’s global economic rise. In fact, ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482680

Tolstoy famously remarked that all happy families are alike but each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. The same might be said of the unhappy state of the Greek and Puerto Rican economies. But while both those economies are struggling with very high debt burdens within a monetary ...


May 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1482676

Under Obamacare, doctors have been strained by costly new regulations, intricate payment “reforms” that tie their Medicare reimbursement to complex federal reporting requirements, and mandates that they install and make “meaningful” use of electronic health records.

Add a new burden to the mix: The proportion of patients they see are rapidly ...


May 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1482614

Douglas Shackelford is the Dean of the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Meade H. Willis Distinguished Professor of Taxation.

A world-renowned authority on taxation and business strategy, Dr. Shackelford has studied the profit shifting phenomenon since its early stages. His ...


May 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1482613
The Commerce Department tries to account for recurring seasonal factors–things like weather, holidays and production schedules–to better identify underlying trends in the economy. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY ...


May 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1482612
U.S. economic growth slowed, but economists expect a second-quarter bounce. Real private inventories contributed less than the initially estimated, one reason for the downward revision that also suggests the second quarter ...


May 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1482611

Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May was at 90.7, up from the preliminary reading of 88.6, and ...


May 29, 2015, 10:44 am, 1482609
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May 29, 2015, 10:44 am, 1482610
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May 29, 2015, 10:44 am, 1482608
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May 29, 2015, 10:44 am, 1482607
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May 29, 2015, 10:35 am, 1482606

One problem with the Labour party is that it has too many Brownites and Blairites and not enough Brailsfordites.

I mean, of course, Sir Dave Brailsford. He has explained how he made British cyclists into world-beaters by aggregating marginal gains:

If you broke down ...


May 29, 2015, 10:34 am, 1482605
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May 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1482601
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 257-258 of Hayek’s 1992 collection, The Fortunes of Liberalism (Peter G. Klein, ed.), which is volume ...


May 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1482600


May 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1482599

Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and her party’s candidate for president of Taiwan, will have her work cut out for her when she arrives in the United States at the end of May. She will aim to show voters back home that she can represent Taiwan ...


May 29, 2015, 10:04 am, 1482598

This editorial will be published in the June 8 edition of The Weekly Standard.

Buried deep in the House version of this year’s defense authorization is a brief provision that has great potential to improve and accelerate the way the armed services buy weapons​—​yes, an actual reform of Pentagon procurement. The ...


May 29, 2015, 9:34 am, 1482596

This was written by CBC Radio's Matthew Lazin-Ryder

1. Pitch better stories

Frances Woolley rightly states that Canadian journalists put a disproportionate amount of our time into following up on Stats Can reports, OECD reports, and think-tank publications. The primary reason is simplicity. Virtually any of the talking heads in ...


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482533

A big day in state tax yesterday, good and bad:

Texas: The Texas House approved a reduction in the margin tax (modified gross receipts tax on business) by 25 percent coupled with an increase in homestead exemptions in the property tax, sending the combined bill to Governor Abbott’s desk. ...


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482532

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, May 29, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: GDP Revisions Show Economy Exposed to Shocks Bullard: Look for New Ways to ...


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482530
Getty Images

The nature of employment seems to be undergoing radical change. Among the trends weakening the traditional model of steady, full-time employment are on-demand work platforms like ...


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482531
A new Cleveland Fed paper finds no support for fears of hyperinflation due to bond buying. BLOOMBERG

Worries that the Federal Reserve’s bond buys would lead to runaway inflation were ...


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482529
The U.S. economy faltered in the first quarter of 2015, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. Here’s a quick look at the report.


May 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1482528
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according ...


May 29, 2015, 8:35 am, 1482527
The recent stumble in US economic data raises new questions about the timing of the Fed’s plans for raising interest rates. The earliest forecast for the first round of tightening monetary policy has been pushed up to September, although some analysts say that the turning point for rates will come ...


May 29, 2015, 7:34 am, 1482522
The WSJ notable and quotable picked a lovely snippet from “On Writing Well” (1976) by William Zinsser, who died May 12 at age 92.

Clutter is the disease of American writing. We are a society strangling in unnecessary words, circular constructions, pompous frills and meaningless jargon.


May 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1482521

Supposedly, we've seen peak SEC.


May 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1482520

I can't say they "blew my mind," but your mileage may vary and they were interesting.


May 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1482519
Amy Farber

Within the New York Public Library Digital Collections is the Robert N. Dennis Collection of Stereoscopic Views. Stereoscopic photographs were ...


May 29, 2015, 7:23 am, 1482518
‘If fair trade does deliver higher incomes for farmers, it may prove too successful for its own good’


May 29, 2015, 7:03 am, 1482465
An investor looks at stock information at a securities firm in Shanghai late last year. Emerging market economies with stronger fundamentals are better positioned to weather policy spillovers, according ...


May 29, 2015, 6:44 am, 1482464
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May 29, 2015, 6:35 am, 1482463
● US Jobless Claims Rise, But Job Growth Still Seen Strong | WSJ ● US pending home sales race to nine-year high in April | Reuters ● Consumer Comfort in US Slumps on Views of Buying Climate | Bloomberg ● Eurocoin Business Cycle Indicator Rises Further In May | RTT ...


May 29, 2015, 6:05 am, 1482462

The book itself has not yet come to my pile, though perhaps it still will.  This one is self-recommending, so here is the basic information, it is due out June 2:

Alvin Roth, Who Gets What — and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design.

If you do ...


May 29, 2015, 5:33 am, 1482459

May 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1482432

ISTANBUL—Turkey’s central bank said Friday the measures taken to support foreign exchange liquidity and long-term borrowing help to buffer the country’s economy against the global shocks and said it may take additional measures if deemed necessary.

In its twice-yearly financial stability report published on its website, the central bank said households ...


May 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1482431

How many U.S. companies have been publicly listed on the AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE stock market exchanges over each of the past 40 years?

The answer is graphically presented in the following chart!


May 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1482430

May 29, 2015, 3:33 am, 1482428
In the strive for zero labor factories we are nearly there. Is 90% good enough?

China Daily reports Manufacturing Hub Starts Work on First Zero-Labor Factory.

A manufacturing hub in South China's Guangdong province has begun constructing the city's first zero-labor factory, a signal that the ...


May 29, 2015, 3:24 am, 1482427

This is a difficult book to review.  Let me tell you what it is not, and then let me tell you what it is more easily as a result.

1) The book does not give you detailed biographies of the people that it features.  Indeed, the ...


May 29, 2015, 2:44 am, 1482386

Most of us intuitively believe that politicians reduce taxes and increase spending in the run up to elections to curry favour with voters. But our logic may well be flawed. This column presents evidence from recent Italian elections suggesting that things aren’t so black and white. Yes, some municipalities set ...


May 29, 2015, 2:05 am, 1482384

A memorial dedicated to the 32 Basque whalers who were killed in the West Fjords in 1615 in what’s known as Iceland’s only mass murder was unveiled in Hólmavík, the West Fjords, on April 22, the last day of winter. At the occasion, West Fjords district commissioner Jónas Guðmundsson revoked ...


May 29, 2015, 2:05 am, 1482383

Nearly half of the biggest US metropolitan areas have yet to recoup all the lost jobs from the Great Recession and almost a third have failed to return to previous levels of output, according to analysis that underscores the fragmenting urban fortunes beneath the surface of America’s recovery.

Research on ...


May 29, 2015, 2:04 am, 1482382

If you have trouble registering for this event, please contact conferences@aei.org.

The US Navy and Marine Corps serve as the forward edge of American power, influence, and aid by reassuring allies and deterring would-be adversaries. Through the dedication of their sailors and marines, the Navy and Marines have met increased global ...


May 29, 2015, 12:44 am, 1482353
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