Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

April 23, 2014, 6:34 am, 1259401

The discussion thread on yesterday’s posting “Supreme Court Upholds Michigan Referendum Banning Affirmative Action In Higher Education” is uncharacteristically ugly, with more slinging of insults than thoughtful ...

April 22, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1258991

Yesterday it was reported that a Federal agency had approved the sale of powdered alcohol, today we learned that this decisionhas been reversed:

A federal agency that had originally approved a new powdered alcohol product reversed its position Monday.

The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau approved Palcohol’s powdered ...

April 21, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1258457

Tomorrow morning, the Supreme Court will here oral argument in a case that promises to have a huge impact on the television industry and how Americans are able to view television programming, specifically programming that is offered over ...

April 20, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1258070

Late last week, I wrote about a change of policy by General Mills that seemed to say that consumers who interact with the company online would abandon their right to sue the company in court and would instead be forced to send their disputes to arbitration. After pretty much ...

April 20, 2014, 10:34 am, 1257969

If you live in Oklahoma and you put solar panels on your house, you’re going to have to pay a surcharge to your electric company thanks to a new law signed by Governor Mary Fallin last week:

Oklahoma ...

April 19, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1257827

Nate Silver nearly missed his flight on Friday so, as any self-respecting data nerd would do, he crunched the numbers to try to determine when the best time to fly might be:

The best time to ...

April 19, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1257818

With newspaper circulation, and more importantly advertising revenue, continuing to plummet due largely to the rise of online and other alternative sources of information, newspaper companies have responded by adding paywalls requiring people to subscribe in order to read ...

April 18, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1257699

Repeating a pattern that it has followed virtually since the beginning of his time in the White House, President Obama’s Administration has once again announced a delay in the process that is supposed to lead to ...

April 18, 2014, 10:35 am, 1257565

Most major businesses were fairly quick to jump on the social media bandwagon, even when it was clear when they didn’t know precisely why they were there. This has been especially true of major consumer brands, almost all ...

April 17, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1257141

The invasion of Crimea may have cost Russia a lot more than it expected:

MOSCOW — Russia’s economy has been hit hard by the turmoil in neighboring Ukraine, Kremlin officials said Wednesday, as pro-Russia separatists battled to ...