Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

July 21, 2016, 6:35 pm, 1655949

July 19, 2016, 4:35 pm, 1655105

In the wake of the filing of a lawsuit filed by former Fox News Channel host Gretchen Carlson, Gabriel Sherman at†New York magazine is reporting that ...

July 14, 2016, 4:35 pm, 1653774

Dave Schuler has noted a pretty significant development that’s off the radar because of Campaign 2016 shenanigans and the rash of police shootings: the ObamaCare compromise of trying to mandate health coverage while maintaining the status of for-profit insurance ...

July 8, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1652072

After disappointing reports for April and May that suggested that the economy may be slowing, the July Jobs Report came back with impressive job gains, ...

July 7, 2016, 8:34 am, 1651679

Former Fox News host Gretchen Carlson has filed a sexual harassment lawsuit against Fox News head Roger Ailes, complete with all the lurid details you’d expect ...

June 24, 2016, 2:34 am, 1648075

One of the things about the Financial Crisis is that it was not really a macro economic problem, but a conglomeration of micro economic problems. These micro economic problems are all incentive problems. These incentives problems were spread throughout the financial system.

One incentive problem was the reduction in ...

June 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1647457

Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellin hinted in her Congressional testimony that the Board of Governors is likely to hold back on raising interest rates at least through the summer:

WASHINGTON — Weak economic growth in the United ...

June 16, 2016, 8:34 am, 1645888

After several less than stellar economic reports, including a very disappointing May Jobs Report, the Federal Reserve Board again held interest rates steady after its meeting this week and hinted that it is reevaluating its ...

June 3, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1642415

In what may be an indication that the weakness we saw in April was not an anomaly, the Jobs Report in May shows the employment market falling off a cliff, raising questions of just how ...

May 31, 2016, 2:34 am, 1641028

So, back in March 2009 I wrote this post about prognostications about the growth of the U.S. economy. It centered mainly about how robust growth will be due to the economic stimulus package. Some rather fantastical claims were made regarding the growth rate of GDP. Namely that ...