Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Outside the Beltway


March 15, 2017, 4:34 pm, 1728970

For the second time in three months, but only the third time in the past ten years, the Federal Reserve Board has raised interest rates:

The Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected increase in its benchmark interest ...


March 14, 2017, 6:34 pm, 1728616

This is Part II of the post I started last Friday. This time, I’ll address some of the most popular reform ideas advanced by conservatives.

4) The assumption that we can “return” ...


March 10, 2017, 4:34 pm, 1727676

With the introduction of the House Republican’s proposed plan to replace the Affordable Care Act, which has been roundly criticized by health care ...


March 10, 2017, 12:34 pm, 1727594

The first Jobs Report to cover a full month in the which the Trump Administration was in power continued to show steady, if not entirely impressive, jobs growth that nonetheless ...


March 8, 2017, 4:34 pm, 1726888

While House Republicans move forward with the health insurance reform bill that was introduced yesterday to what now seems like undeserved fanfare, health care policy experts from across the political spectrum are speaking out against it:

They rarely ...


March 7, 2017, 4:34 am, 1726248

My co-blogger Dave Schuler pointed me to this paper on NAFTA. The title is the same as the title of this post, but without the question mark.

Dave cited this interesting claim from the abstract,

We find that Mexico’s welfare increases by 1.31%, U.S.’s welfare increases by 0.08%, and Canada’s ...


March 6, 2017, 12:34 pm, 1726033

Hollywood, the broadcast networks, and even the National Football League have all noticed something that can’t be ignored over the course of the past year. Namely, it’s the fact that fewer people are watching than they have in the ...


March 4, 2017, 10:34 pm, 1725719

The hallmark of a good economist is to see that which is not seen. This was the topic of Frederic Bastiat’s essay, “That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen” first published in 1850.

In the department of economy, an act, a habit, an institution, a law, ...


March 3, 2017, 6:34 pm, 1725600

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellin strongly hinted today that we’re likely to see another interest rate increase this month:

Janet L. Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said Friday that the Fed was likely to raise its ...


March 1, 2017, 2:34 pm, 1724708

Travel industry experts are finding a noticeable drop in tourism to the United States from elsewhere in the world that seems to coincide with the ...