Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

June 24, 2016, 2:34 am, 1648075

One of the things about the Financial Crisis is that it was not really a macro economic problem, but a conglomeration of micro economic problems. These micro economic problems are all incentive problems. These incentives problems were spread throughout the financial system.

One incentive problem was the reduction in ...

June 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1647457

Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellin hinted in her Congressional testimony that the Board of Governors is likely to hold back on raising interest rates at least through the summer:

WASHINGTON — Weak economic growth in the United ...

June 16, 2016, 8:34 am, 1645888

After several less than stellar economic reports, including a very disappointing May Jobs Report, the Federal Reserve Board again held interest rates steady after its meeting this week and hinted that it is reevaluating its ...

June 3, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1642415

In what may be an indication that the weakness we saw in April was not an anomaly, the Jobs Report in May shows the employment market falling off a cliff, raising questions of just how ...

May 31, 2016, 2:34 am, 1641028

So, back in March 2009 I wrote this post about prognostications about the growth of the U.S. economy. It centered mainly about how robust growth will be due to the economic stimulus package. Some rather fantastical claims were made regarding the growth rate of GDP. Namely that ...

May 24, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639455

Bubba Smith, the former N.F.L. star who went on to have a successful career as an actor, is the latest former pro football player to be diagnosed as having a degenerative brain disease linked to repeated concussions:

Bubba Smith, the All-Pro defensive end in the N.F.L. who went on ...

May 23, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1639102

With the time for N.F.L. players to return to training camp fast approaching, New England Patriots Quarterback Tom Brady has appealed the decision of a panel of the ...

May 17, 2016, 8:34 am, 1637237

Bill Backer, the man behind the creation of the most famous commercials of the 1970s if not all time, has died at the age of 89:

Bill Backer, a lapsed lyricist whose classic 1971 commercial taught a fractious world of potential

May 16, 2016, 10:34 am, 1636893

Ever since he entered the Presidential race last June, Donald Trump has boasted to crowds that he was ‘self-funding’ his Presidential campaign and that he would not ...

May 14, 2016, 10:34 am, 1636556

In the latest sign of an what seems like a cultural shift on the issue of capital punishment, Pfizer announced yesterday that it would no longer permit its drugs to be used as part of the ...