Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

April 18, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1257699

Repeating a pattern that it has followed virtually since the beginning of his time in the White House, President Obama’s Administration has once again announced a delay in the process that is supposed to lead to ...

April 18, 2014, 10:35 am, 1257565

Most major businesses were fairly quick to jump on the social media bandwagon, even when it was clear when they didn’t know precisely why they were there. This has been especially true of major consumer brands, almost all ...

April 17, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1257141

The invasion of Crimea may have cost Russia a lot more than it expected:

MOSCOW — Russia’s economy has been hit hard by the turmoil in neighboring Ukraine, Kremlin officials said Wednesday, as pro-Russia separatists battled to ...

April 13, 2014, 8:34 am, 1254855

A recent NYT piece lamenting the fact that airlines are increasingly awarding “status” points on the basis of how much customers spend rather than how many miles they fly ...

April 12, 2014, 10:34 am, 1254647

Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations notes that Egypt may be on the brink of a serious economic crisis:

Egypt is perilously close to becoming insolvent, meaning a default on its debts. As I argue in a ...

April 9, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1253223

Megan McArdle explores how the rise of electronic payment systems could end up hurting the lowest end of society:

My neighborhood is a focal point for homeless-services organizations, which means that on any fine day, there will be homeless ...

April 9, 2014, 10:34 am, 1252948

A new security bug could leave millions of people with their passwords exposed:

SAN FRANCISCO — An alarming lapse in Internet security has exposed millions of passwords, credit card numbers and other sensitive bits of information to ...

April 9, 2014, 10:34 am, 1252947

Contrary to its name and the arguments made by its proponents both when the bill was being debated in 2009 and 2010 and in the time since then, the President’s signature piece of legislation appears to be making ...

April 7, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1251926

Andrew Sullivanhas received lots of reader pushback, some more civil than others, for taking the position that Mozilla CEO Brendan Eich should not have been forced out of his job for his active opposition to gay ...

April 5, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1251293

The Associated Press reports on another unanticipated consequence of the Affordable Care Act, the fact that you probably won’t be able to buy health insurance until November if you don’t have it already:

Americans thinking about buying health insurance ...