Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

February 8, 2016, 8:34 am, 1606317

WSJ Citypasses on word that “Work Phones Are Being Phased Out at Banks.”

It has long been considered a standard part of a City worker’s tool kit, but the work phone could be on the way out as banks seek to encourage individuals to use their personal devices.

Banks including Citi, ...

February 5, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1605762

After two months of solid employment reports, the January Jobs Report came back with numbers that were somewhat disappointing when it comes to jobs growth, and which put both Federal Reserve policy and the state of the ...

February 3, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1604936

Insurance companies supporting the ObamaCare exchanges are losing money and raising rates.

Executives at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Alabama are predicting losses of $135 million in 2015, mostly due to the costs of insuring patients who gained ...

January 30, 2016, 8:34 am, 1603693

Thursday night’s Trump-less Republican debate ended up drawing 12.5 million viewers, making it among the lowest ranking of the GOP debates this election cycle:

The Fox News Republican debate without Donald Trump on Thursday night drew ...

January 29, 2016, 10:34 am, 1603409

Ordinarily, the fourth quarter of the year is one in which the economy does fairly well, even in years in which the economy overall is somewhat weak. Businesses spend a little extra to get money off the books ...

January 23, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1601410

While they remain largely in the experimental stage, it seems readily apparent that the self-driving car is where the future of the automobile is head. Google, of course, continues to be among the best ...

January 19, 2016, 10:34 am, 1600019

For years now, China’s economy has been growing at an incredibly rapid rate as the government in Beijing continues a process of modernization that can trace its roots back to the mid-1970s and the first efforts to turn ...

January 13, 2016, 6:34 am, 1598404

In his valedictory State of the Union address, President Obama declared that, “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.” By almost any standard, he’s right. Aside from the silliness of taking credit for “gas under ...

January 8, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1597222

The economy closed out 2015 with one of the strongest monthly jobs reports we’ve seen in some time, making 2015 the second best year for job creation since 1999:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 292,000 ...

January 6, 2016, 8:34 am, 1596375

Jedediah Purdy’s “The Bundys and the Irony of American Vigilantism” provides a useful backgrounder on the ideology driving the standoff in Oregon. Here’s a key excerpt:

From Independence until the late nineteenth century, the major function of federal law ...