Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Outside the Beltway


December 2, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1699287

The November Jobs Report showed that the jobs market continues to improve, making a Federal Reserve Board rate hike later this month more and more likely:

The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and ...


November 15, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1694495

Donald Trump was our Establishment Candidate. And on Tuesday night the Establishment won and won yuge.

Wait. How can this be? Trump relished being the anti-Establishment figure, and his followers and the mainstream media purchased his narrative at full retail price. And why not? Here was a candidate running proudly on ...


November 4, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1690431

The final Jobs Report before Election Day, which also happens to fall on the eve of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve Board, shows that that jobs market ...


October 28, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1687907

The first estimate of Gross Domestic Product growth for the third quarter shows the economy growing at a faster pace between June and September than it had for most of the year:

The American economy moved into ...


October 7, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1681793

The penultimate jobs report before November’s Presidential and Congressional elections seems to reveal an economy that is resilient but not exactly growing at the kind of strong pace that ...


October 6, 2016, 10:34 am, 1681398

Tuesday night’s Vice-Presidential debate was had the lowest viewership of any previous such debatesince the encounter between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman in 2000:

Tuesday night’s vice presidential ...


September 22, 2016, 10:34 am, 1677662

A new study challenges a conclusion at the center of the anti-immigration passions that have propelled Donald Trump’s campaign for President. the idea that immigrants take jobs away from Americans:

Do immigrants take jobs from Americans and lower ...


September 21, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1677478

Once again, the Federal Reserve Board has decided to forego raising interest rates:

WASHINGTON — A divided Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, pressing ahead with its economic stimulus campaign for at ...


September 11, 2016, 4:34 am, 1671871

The minimum wage has been a big part of this year’s election cycle, mainly due to Bernie Sander’s campaign and his idea of a national minimum wage. There has been lots of discussion of this, but most of it is just, well, bad. There are really two things ...


September 9, 2016, 4:34 am, 1671453

Uhhmm no. I don’t know who Matthey Sheffield is, other than a liar, but this claim is highly misleading. First off Sheffield starts of rather badly with this,

The figure whose ideas unify Pauline libertarians and today’s Trumpists is the late Murray Rothbard, an economist who co-founded ...