Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

July 25, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1305607

Two years ago, we apparently came alarmingly close to an event that we could not have possibly avoided which would have had widespread devastating consequences:

On July 23, 2012, the sun unleashed two massive ...

July 25, 2014, 8:34 am, 1305377

Ticket collectors at Southwest Airlines are our first line of defense.

GMA (“Family Booted Off Southwest Airlines After Dad Tweeted About ‘Rude’ Gate Agent“):

A Minneapolis man said ...

July 23, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1304130

The Federal Aviation Administration has halted all flights from the U.S. to Israel for 24 hours in response to a rocket attack near Ben Gurion Airport:

Major American airlines stopped flying to Israel on Tuesday after a rocket fell near Ben-Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv, and after the ...

July 18, 2014, 10:34 am, 1303052

Yesterday’s tragic attack on Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in the skies over eastern Ukraine has led many people to wonder why planes were flying over disputed territory to being with. After all, even though it’s apparently ...

July 16, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1301935

Confirming a rumor that has actually been circulating in the business news world for some time, The New York Times reported this morning that Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox made a bid to acquire Time Warner, a bid ...

July 15, 2014, 6:34 am, 1301027

French anthropologist Emmanuel Todd argues “There is no such thing as Europe” because the English-speaking and Scandinavian countries are so culturally different from the rest of the Continent.

July 9, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1298771

July 8, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1298133

At the Monkey Cage, Joshua Tucker applies game theory to argue that LeBron James ought choose which team he signs with quickly.

First, let’s make some simplifying assumptions, as all game theoretic models ...

July 6, 2014, 6:34 am, 1297116

A free trade zone between the United States and the European Union is a no-brainer. But the devil is in the details.

July 4, 2014, 10:34 am, 1296873

Chances are the fireworks that you may enjoy later today aren’t exactly red, white & blue:

On Independence Day, celebrations across the United States depend on China.

The sparklers, bottle rockets and Roman ...