Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Outside the Beltway

September 22, 2016, 10:34 am, 1677662

A new study challenges a conclusion at the center of the anti-immigration passions that have propelled Donald Trump’s campaign for President. the idea that immigrants take jobs away from Americans:

Do immigrants take jobs from Americans and lower ...

September 21, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1677478

Once again, the Federal Reserve Board has decided to forego raising interest rates:

WASHINGTON — A divided Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, pressing ahead with its economic stimulus campaign for at ...

September 11, 2016, 4:34 am, 1671871

The minimum wage has been a big part of this year’s election cycle, mainly due to Bernie Sander’s campaign and his idea of a national minimum wage. There has been lots of discussion of this, but most of it is just, well, bad. There are really two things ...

September 9, 2016, 4:34 am, 1671453

Uhhmm no. I don’t know who Matthey Sheffield is, other than a liar, but this claim is highly misleading. First off Sheffield starts of rather badly with this,

The figure whose ideas unify Pauline libertarians and today’s Trumpists is the late Murray Rothbard, an economist who co-founded ...

September 6, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1670618

Fox News Channel has settled the sexual harassment lawsuit brought by former FNC anchor Gretchen Carlson, who accused former head of Fox News Roger Ailes of a long trail of sexual harassment while she worked ...

September 2, 2016, 10:35 am, 1669753

The American jobs market seems to be be somewhat schizophrenic in 2016, and it’s unclear what that means when it comes to the state of the economy, how the Federal Reserve ...

August 27, 2016, 10:34 am, 1668065

Earlier this week, the Commerce Department reported that the economy had grown at a rather anemic pace in the Second Quarter according to its latest Gross Domestic Product growth estimate:

The economic recovery may be durable, but ...

August 24, 2016, 10:34 am, 1667192

Notwithstanding the fact that their location in Rio de Janeiro made them well-positioned for the U.S. market, the recently concluded 2016 Summer Olympics were ...

August 20, 2016, 4:34 am, 1666115

Good Bye Peak Oil Hypothesis

I have posted on this topic in the past and have been very skeptical of this concept and the Hubbert model in particular. The story is simple and very believable, the amount of oil is finite therefore the production of oil will follow a “bell ...

August 20, 2016, 2:34 am, 1666113

In this speech Donald Trump makes the claim that North Carolina has lost half of the manufacturing jobs (starts at about the 45:30 mark if you don’t want to suffer through the whole horrible thing). The implication, which he does not make explicit, is that those jobs were ...