Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Outside the Beltway

August 27, 2016, 10:34 am, 1668065

Earlier this week, the Commerce Department reported that the economy had grown at a rather anemic pace in the Second Quarter according to its latest Gross Domestic Product growth estimate:

The economic recovery may be durable, but ...

August 24, 2016, 10:34 am, 1667192

Notwithstanding the fact that their location in Rio de Janeiro made them well-positioned for the U.S. market, the recently concluded 2016 Summer Olympics were ...

August 20, 2016, 4:34 am, 1666115

Good Bye Peak Oil Hypothesis

I have posted on this topic in the past and have been very skeptical of this concept and the Hubbert model in particular. The story is simple and very believable, the amount of oil is finite therefore the production of oil will follow a “bell ...

August 20, 2016, 2:34 am, 1666113

In this speech Donald Trump makes the claim that North Carolina has lost half of the manufacturing jobs (starts at about the 45:30 mark if you don’t want to suffer through the whole horrible thing). The implication, which he does not make explicit, is that those jobs were ...

August 14, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1664234

Good article about how protectionism is pretty much vote buying, or pork barrel politics.

As one of history’s great economists, Frédéric Bastiat, put it in 1848: “There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good ...

August 14, 2016, 4:34 am, 1664153

In my post on mercantilism Micaheal Robinson has one the most up voted comments,

Because Montana and California are subject to the same minimum federal environmental protection standards, health and safety standards, labor standards, housing standards, etc.
The jobs that are going abroad are not going because those performing the ...

August 13, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1664113

Okay, so I read some of the comments in my last post, and going to reply here on the main page.

First up is this comment by grumpy realist,

Except that there are a few things that you leave out:

1) National security. We could use the same logic to “outsource” ...

August 13, 2016, 4:34 am, 1664051

I do not get Donald Trump’s (or anyone else’s like Bernie Sanders) argument for protectionism/mercantilism. I do not understand why trade between nations is viewed a fundamentally different than trade between states in the U.S. or even between individuals and firms. To quote Don Boudreaux, I have been ...

August 5, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1661341

After the June Jobs Report showed the employment market bouncing back after lackluster reports in April and May, the question hanging over the economy was what the July report might indicate. ...

July 21, 2016, 6:35 pm, 1655949