Economics Roundtable
Calculated Risk
Read the Bill McBride interview.
Jobs
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
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Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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EconModel
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The Entrepreneurial Mind
”... with Dr. Jeffrey R. Cornwall”
The first mistake is being hesitant to delegate.
When first beginning to delegate to employees, some entrepreneurs feel ...
Should you always ...
A lot has been ...
But you should never assume the business modeling is finished once the business begins to grow. Keeping a business model current is critical for long-term success.
Entrepreneurs face a difficult challenge in how they should be spending their time as a business grows.
The dilemma is commonly referred to as needing to "work on the business rather than work in it."
Typically, entrepreneurs are heavily ...
Toddi Gutner offers three case studies on entrepreneurs who have worked at finding this balance in ...
"I want to show you this awesome app that I helped design."
"We've got a great idea for a website."
Those of us who work with ...
So what can small businesses expect for 2012? My general advise continues to be cautious! While we are seeing some of the small business surveys showing optimism increasing and more ...
I am not suggesting that aspiring entrepreneurs just sit and wait for an opportunity to come to ...