Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Entrepreneurial Mind

”... with Dr. Jeffrey R. Cornwall”

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774043
I have written often about the challenges for entrepreneurs of finding balance between the strong, often conflicting pulls from family and from their business.

Toddi Gutner offers three case studies on entrepreneurs who have worked at finding this balance in ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774044
"I've developed this really cool product and I have applied for a patent."

"I want to show you this awesome app that I helped design."

"We've got a great idea for a website."

Those of us who work with ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774045

So what can small businesses expect for 2012? My general advise continues to be cautious!  While we are seeing some of the small business surveys showing optimism increasing and more ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774046
While entrepreneurial success is tied to careful feasibility assessment, business modeling and planning, never underestimate the role that luck plays in an entrepreneurial journey.

I am not suggesting that aspiring entrepreneurs just sit and wait for an opportunity to come to ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774042
One of the bootstrapping techniques I like folks to consider is keeping your day job while your venture to getting up to speed.  This has become a more common financing strategy now that the weak economy has put a hit on the ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774041

Entrepreneurs face a difficult challenge in how they should be spending their time as a business grows.


The dilemma is commonly referred to as needing to "work on the business rather than work in it."


Typically, entrepreneurs are heavily ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774038
Most entrepreneurs dream of that one big break.  For some businesses it is getting the one big customer.  For others it may be betting that magical "shout out" from a national thought leader or big time media outlet.

Should you always ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774039
If we have any hopes of entrepreneurs leading us into a new period of economic growth the evidence is that they will come from two generational groups -- the Millennial Generation and their parents the Baby Boomers.

A lot has been ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774040
Developing a sound business model is key to the successful launch of a business.

But you should never assume the business modeling is finished once the business begins to grow. Keeping a business model current is critical for long-term success.

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774037
But delegating often turns out to be easier said than done. There are three common mistakes that entrepreneurs can make when delegating.

The first mistake is being hesitant to delegate.

When first beginning to delegate to employees, some entrepreneurs feel ...