Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Becker-Posner Blog

"A blog by Gary Becker and Richard Posner”

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773963

Thursday Northwestern Law School is holding a conference on the war on drugs. The announcement is below. I am chairing a panel at 4 p.m. to 5:30 of three economists on the topic "costs and benefits of the war on drugs." It should be an interesting session, and ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773964

 The print media and the blogosphere have many discussions of the high and rising cost of attending college, the debt burden weighing on college students, the fact that the average real earnings of college graduates have risen only slowly during the past 40 years, and the difficulty young ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773965

Becker’s data are solid, but I am not what inferences can be confidently drawn from them. 

In particular, I doubt whether it’s possible to infer the value of a college education from a comparison of earnings of college graduates to earnings of persons who do ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773966

There are, especially in Europe and East Asia, and to a limited extent in the Western Hemisphere, small countries that are well governed. But among large, populous countries, there appears to be only one well-governed country: Germany. The United States is the third largest country by land ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773962

Decriminalizing a drug like marijuana means that it no longer is a crime to possess marijuana for personal use, The advantages of decriminalizing marijuana are so numerous and powerful that it is difficult to understand the intense opposition.

The movement at the state level of the United States ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773961

With 20 states having now legalized medical marijuana use, and two (Washington and Colorado) having legalized recreational use of marijuana, the days of legal prohibition of use of marijuana for recreational as well as for medical purposes seem numbered. 

The case for prohibiting marijuana was never ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773958

Starting this weekend, we will be taking a one-month sabbatical from blogging. We will resume at the end of that period.

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773959

The US embargo of Cuba began in 1960, a year after Fidel Castro turned this island toward communism. It was extended to food and medicines in 1962, the same year as the showdown with Russia over the installation of missiles there. The embargo has prevented American companies from ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773960

I agree with Becker that we should end the embargo. It was first imposed in 1960, two years after Castro took power, and strengthened after the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, and thereafter modified from time to time—and recently somewhat relaxed, so that today in fact we ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773957

In memoriam: Gary S. Becker, 1930-2014.

The Becker-Posner blog is terminated.

Richard A. Posner