January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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We're hiring a labor economist at EPI... see link for details on how to apply...
Living Standards/Labor Economist
The Economic Policy Institute is looking for an experienced economist for our flagship Living Standards program. In that position, the successful candidate would work with the Living Standards team to ...
Romer/Bernstein estimate job impact to be between 3 and 4 million... see The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.
Just posted at EPI...
A package that provides funding for infrastructure, aid to states, and other provisions would begin to reverse our economic course by creating jobs while meeting national priorities. The package should also include a down-payment on longer-term reforms, as well. This memo ...
The GAO is out with its first report on the Treasury's TARP/CPP program. Implementing the transparency and accountability requirements should be a high priority for the new administration.
(Also, be sure to check out the nifty TED spread chart on page 50, and the bond-treasury spread on 51. And, if you ...
A new Gallup Poll finds 48% of Americans saying the amount of federal income taxes they pay is "about right," with 46% saying "too high" -- one of the most positive assessments Gallup has measured since 1956. Typically, a majority of ...
Now live on Twitter...
Best idea I've heard in a while...
Create an "extended warranty fund" Instead of buying warranty after warranty, why not create an "extended warranty fund." In other words, whenever a retailer offers you an extended warranty, simply transfer that amount of money into ...
I've been trying to track this article down for months... must read for those interested in setting the record straight.Persistence of Myths Could Alter Public Policy Approach - washingtonpost.com
Making minor improvements... but want to redesign to incorporate twitter, posterous.
Also thinking about moving from movable type to a hosted platform to better cross-post.