Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Personal Weblog of Michael Stastny”

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506068

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506070
Bloomberg: A formula for measuring how fast the best-informed traders increase their share of market volume may help regulators prevent crashes such as the May 6 plunge, according to a study from researchers at hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp. and Cornell University.

The team developed a gauge that identifies ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506071
FT / Letters / Ewan Kirk, Cantab

Sir, The Lex column “Mandelbrot’s inconvenient truth”, following the death of Benoit Mandelbrot, unfortunately concentrated on one of the areas where this outstanding mathematician was somewhat misguided. While the FT letters page ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506069
IMF Global Markets Monitor: LCH.Clearnet, the leading central counterparty for European government bonds, in October announced that it will require “materially” higher (around 15% initially) margins to be posted for trades in bonds issued by governments with a 10-year spread of more than 450 bps over a specific AAA ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506061

Theory has, at length, become so "scientific" and abstract as to intrigue the mathematicians who have taken delight in developing the concept of a kaleidoscopic and frictionless play of atomistic units in a complex and eternally unfolding equilibrium. The notion of equilibrium suggested equations; equations are prolific parents of their ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506062
Financial News: Investment consultants are pushing for a seismic shift from active asset management to passive in a move that could result in savings of more than $50bn a year for pension schemes and other institutional investors and a switch of trillions of dollars in assets.

The advice is ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506060
Deutsche Bank Research: Existing evidence related to the impact of HFT on certain market quality and efficiency indicators is inconclusive. Some studies (e.g. Hendershott and Riordan, 2009; Jovanovic and Menkveld, 2010) suggest that HFT using market making and arbitrage strategies has added liquidity to the market, reduced spreads ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506057

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506058
Oliver Wyman:

As the population ages, the demand for financial products will change. Broadly speaking, older consumers are wealthier than younger ones. They have greater balances in savings and investment accounts and are much more likely to live in an un-mortgaged home. As they reach retirement, their demand for “accumulation” ...

July 9, 2015, 4:34 am, 1506059
CDS Curve (white line) vs. Z-Spread (+)

Read: Citi sees free lunch in Greek basis (almost), FT Alphaville