Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Mahalanobis

"Personal Weblog of Michael Stastny”


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297278
Boston College: Red Bull’s red and gold logo can “give you wings” – for better or worse – even if consumers don’t know it, according to a new study by two BC professors, who found the brand’s edgy marketing efforts have sold a heavy dose of attitude to consumers.


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297279

July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297280


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297281
IMF Global Markets Monitor: LCH.Clearnet, the leading central counterparty for European government bonds, in October announced that it will require “materially” higher (around 15% initially) margins to be posted for trades in bonds issued by governments with a 10-year spread of more than 450 bps over a specific AAA ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297277
Bloomberg: European banks struggling to raise money amid the region's sovereign crisis are turning to covered bonds, driving sales and pushing relative yields for the top-rated debt above unsecure company notes for the first time.

Investors demand 171 basis points of extra yield to hold covered bonds instead of ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297276
Bloomberg: U.S. joblessness would be much higher if Americans dropping out of the workforce were taken into account, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale.

“The impression that unemployment has fallen” results primarily from ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297273

Theory has, at length, become so "scientific" and abstract as to intrigue the mathematicians who have taken delight in developing the concept of a kaleidoscopic and frictionless play of atomistic units in a complex and eternally unfolding equilibrium. The notion of equilibrium suggested equations; equations are prolific parents of their ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297274
Financial News: Investment consultants are pushing for a seismic shift from active asset management to passive in a move that could result in savings of more than $50bn a year for pension schemes and other institutional investors and a switch of trillions of dollars in assets.

The advice is ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297275
Financial Times: After decades of false dawns, advances in AI are at hand - led by a digital quiz show contestant - that offer business potentially significant benefits, writes Richard Waters.

Two core processes underlie the trick. One is natural language recognition – the ability to “understand” a sentence. ...


July 7, 2014, 2:36 am, 1297272
Deutsche Bank Research: Existing evidence related to the impact of HFT on certain market quality and efficiency indicators is inconclusive. Some studies (e.g. Hendershott and Riordan, 2009; Jovanovic and Menkveld, 2010) suggest that HFT using market making and arbitrage strategies has added liquidity to the market, reduced spreads ...