Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


November Payroll Employment


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mahalanobis

"Personal Weblog of Michael Stastny”


July 6, 2011, 12:36 pm, 871936
FT / Letters / Ewan Kirk, Cantab

Sir, The Lex column “Mandelbrot’s inconvenient truth”, following the death of Benoit Mandelbrot, unfortunately concentrated on one of the areas where this outstanding mathematician was somewhat misguided. While the FT letters page ...


July 6, 2011, 12:36 pm, 871935
Bloomberg: A formula for measuring how fast the best-informed traders increase their share of market volume may help regulators prevent crashes such as the May 6 plunge, according to a study from researchers at hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp. and Cornell University.

The team developed a gauge that identifies ...


July 6, 2011, 12:36 pm, 871934
IMF Global Markets Monitor: LCH.Clearnet, the leading central counterparty for European government bonds, in October announced that it will require “materially” higher (around 15% initially) margins to be posted for trades in bonds issued by governments with a 10-year spread of more than 450 bps over a specific AAA ...


July 6, 2011, 12:36 pm, 871933


July 6, 2011, 12:36 pm, 871932

February 25, 2011, 2:36 pm, 826846


February 24, 2011, 2:36 pm, 826411
Oliver Wyman:

As the population ages, the demand for financial products will change. Broadly speaking, older consumers are wealthier than younger ones. They have greater balances in savings and investment accounts and are much more likely to live in an un-mortgaged home. As they reach retirement, their demand for “accumulation” ...


February 24, 2011, 8:36 am, 826262
CDS Curve (white line) vs. Z-Spread (+)

Read: Citi sees free lunch in Greek basis (almost), FT Alphaville


February 23, 2011, 8:36 am, 825827
Deutsche Bank Research: Existing evidence related to the impact of HFT on certain market quality and efficiency indicators is inconclusive. Some studies (e.g. Hendershott and Riordan, 2009; Jovanovic and Menkveld, 2010) suggest that HFT using market making and arbitrage strategies has added liquidity to the market, reduced spreads ...


February 22, 2011, 8:36 am, 825338

Theory has, at length, become so "scientific" and abstract as to intrigue the mathematicians who have taken delight in developing the concept of a kaleidoscopic and frictionless play of atomistic units in a complex and eternally unfolding equilibrium. The notion of equilibrium suggested equations; equations are prolific parents of their ...