Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Mahalanobis

"Personal Weblog of Michael Stastny”


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773920
Financial Times: After decades of false dawns, advances in AI are at hand - led by a digital quiz show contestant - that offer business potentially significant benefits, writes Richard Waters.

Two core processes underlie the trick. One is natural language recognition – the ability to “understand” a sentence. ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773921
Bloomberg: U.S. joblessness would be much higher if Americans dropping out of the workforce were taken into account, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale.

“The impression that unemployment has fallen” results primarily from ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773922
Bloomberg: European banks struggling to raise money amid the region's sovereign crisis are turning to covered bonds, driving sales and pushing relative yields for the top-rated debt above unsecure company notes for the first time.

Investors demand 171 basis points of extra yield to hold covered bonds instead of ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773923
Boston College: Red Bull’s red and gold logo can “give you wings” – for better or worse – even if consumers don’t know it, according to a new study by two BC professors, who found the brand’s edgy marketing efforts have sold a heavy dose of attitude to consumers.


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773919
Financial News: Investment consultants are pushing for a seismic shift from active asset management to passive in a move that could result in savings of more than $50bn a year for pension schemes and other institutional investors and a switch of trillions of dollars in assets.

The advice is ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773918

Theory has, at length, become so "scientific" and abstract as to intrigue the mathematicians who have taken delight in developing the concept of a kaleidoscopic and frictionless play of atomistic units in a complex and eternally unfolding equilibrium. The notion of equilibrium suggested equations; equations are prolific parents of their ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773915
Oliver Wyman:

As the population ages, the demand for financial products will change. Broadly speaking, older consumers are wealthier than younger ones. They have greater balances in savings and investment accounts and are much more likely to live in an un-mortgaged home. As they reach retirement, their demand for “accumulation” ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773916
CDS Curve (white line) vs. Z-Spread (+)

Read: Citi sees free lunch in Greek basis (almost), FT Alphaville


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773917
Deutsche Bank Research: Existing evidence related to the impact of HFT on certain market quality and efficiency indicators is inconclusive. Some studies (e.g. Hendershott and Riordan, 2009; Jovanovic and Menkveld, 2010) suggest that HFT using market making and arbitrage strategies has added liquidity to the market, reduced spreads ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773914