Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Mahalanobis

"Personal Weblog of Michael Stastny”


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224150
Financial Times: After decades of false dawns, advances in AI are at hand - led by a digital quiz show contestant - that offer business potentially significant benefits, writes Richard Waters.

Two core processes underlie the trick. One is natural language recognition – the ability to “understand” a sentence. ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224151
Bloomberg: U.S. joblessness would be much higher if Americans dropping out of the workforce were taken into account, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale.

“The impression that unemployment has fallen” results primarily from ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224152
Bloomberg: European banks struggling to raise money amid the region's sovereign crisis are turning to covered bonds, driving sales and pushing relative yields for the top-rated debt above unsecure company notes for the first time.

Investors demand 171 basis points of extra yield to hold covered bonds instead of ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224153
Boston College: Red Bull’s red and gold logo can “give you wings” – for better or worse – even if consumers don’t know it, according to a new study by two BC professors, who found the brand’s edgy marketing efforts have sold a heavy dose of attitude to consumers.


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224149
Financial News: Investment consultants are pushing for a seismic shift from active asset management to passive in a move that could result in savings of more than $50bn a year for pension schemes and other institutional investors and a switch of trillions of dollars in assets.

The advice is ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224148

Theory has, at length, become so "scientific" and abstract as to intrigue the mathematicians who have taken delight in developing the concept of a kaleidoscopic and frictionless play of atomistic units in a complex and eternally unfolding equilibrium. The notion of equilibrium suggested equations; equations are prolific parents of their ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224145
Oliver Wyman:

As the population ages, the demand for financial products will change. Broadly speaking, older consumers are wealthier than younger ones. They have greater balances in savings and investment accounts and are much more likely to live in an un-mortgaged home. As they reach retirement, their demand for “accumulation” ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224146
CDS Curve (white line) vs. Z-Spread (+)

Read: Citi sees free lunch in Greek basis (almost), FT Alphaville


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224147
Deutsche Bank Research: Existing evidence related to the impact of HFT on certain market quality and efficiency indicators is inconclusive. Some studies (e.g. Hendershott and Riordan, 2009; Jovanovic and Menkveld, 2010) suggest that HFT using market making and arbitrage strategies has added liquidity to the market, reduced spreads ...


February 12, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1224144