May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Ludwig von Mises Institute Articles
The Fed has created a new measure of employment that it says it will use to guide monetary policy. Unfortunately, simply knowing employment trends tells us little about whether or not real wealth is being created in the economy. ...
David Gordon and Jeff Deist discuss Rothbard’s life from an insider’s perspective, his relationship with Mises and the areas where they disagreed, and more.
Efficient banks have many options for lenders and credit when banking crises hit. It's the inefficient and insolvent banks that must turn to a central bank. But do we really want central banks that reward insolvency and encourage inefficiency? ...
In this review of Radley Balko's Rise of the Warrior Cop Aaron Tao examines the history of government policing, rights that have been lost, and the symbiotic relationship between the police state and the war on drugs.
Once interest rates begin to rise — and rise they must, whether as a result of Fed policy or not — the end of the asset price inflation will be at hand. The result will be another financial crisis and accompanying recession.
Christopher Westley reports from this year's National Association of Business Economists Convention. He finds that the mainstream's intellectual blinders are firmly in place, and that the “fatal conceit” Friedrich Hayek wrote about in 1988 is alive and well in 2014.
Orders in capital goods have been going up since 2009. Normally, capital goods purchases suggest economic growth, but if the orders are a result of easy money, the purchases point not to wealth creation, but to a bubble.