Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Economics in the News

"Geoff Riley (Head of Economics at Eton College) provides a regular commentary on economics issues and trends - essential daily reading for all economics students and teachers.”


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360608
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an example of an oligopoly colluding overtly to fix the price of a barrel of oil - currently there are 12 members and according to OPEC they control 81% of crude oil reserves. One of OPEC's main aims is to “ensure stable ...


October 30, 2014, 7:23 am, 1360609
This prediction is based on estimates of the real cost of living, known as purchasing power parity or PPPs which according to this FT article "are recognised as the best way to compare the size of economies rather than using volatile exchange rates". PPP theory takes into account ...


October 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1359986
As more and more syllabuses start to incorporate behavioural economics into their specifications (as they should!)... so are governments around the world.Most recently, I came across this - a paper produced by the Irish Civil Service on how behavioural economics can assist in policy making and incorporating it into their ...


October 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1359985
Some quirky videos here on economic questions fromWeTheEconomy...Paul G. Allen’s Vulcan Productions and Morgan Spurlock’s Cinelan have partnered to produce WE THE ECONOMY 20 Short Films You Can’t Afford to Miss. Each film is helmed by an acclaimed filmmaker, each with their own creative vision. The series aims to drive ...


October 29, 2014, 7:23 am, 1359723
Flip teaching is the idea that instead of teaching in the classroom, and doing prep at home, pupils do the learning at home and then do the prep in the classroom - the idea being that the teacher is on hand to help with areas the pupils do not understand. ...


October 27, 2014, 11:23 am, 1358272
Amazon comes in for some pretty severe criticisms from various quarters. So I enjoyed reading an article by Reihan Salam inSlate, who argues that “Jeff Bezos’ company is not the problem with American capitalism. It’s the solution to our economy’s ills”. ...


October 27, 2014, 9:23 am, 1358197
The world seems to want, and need, plenty of advice on ways to boost macroeconomic performance. I was drawn to one piece onProject Syndicate that was especially interesting because the author, Jeff Sachs (one of the most famous development economists) introduces his comments by saying: “I am a macroeconomist, ...


October 24, 2014, 5:23 am, 1356953
The Local Government Association (which represents local councils in the UK) have joined the debate about term time holidays for pupils this week. They argue that current rules banning term time holidays or imposing fines on those families who take such breaks do not recognise the complexities of modern families ...


October 22, 2014, 9:23 am, 1355488
Reports out over the last couple of days suggest that government spending on free nursery places for 3 year olds since 1998 has not produced any valuable educational or economic outcome. The policy was introduced as part of a series of reforms introduced by Tony Blair when he came to ...


October 22, 2014, 7:23 am, 1355413
Why can’t the UK government get its deficit down? This question has been exercising commentators recently, in the light of the latest assessment from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that George Osborn will once again miss his target for the deficit in the 2014/15 financial year. Of ...