Calculated Risk
Read the Bill McBride interview.
Jobs
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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Economics in the News
"Geoff Riley (Head of Economics at Eton College) provides a regular commentary on economics issues and trends - essential daily reading for all economics students and teachers.”
May 24, 2013, 1:24 am, 1098074
The High Speed 2 rail project is under fire on many
fronts. The Nimby protests in the
affluent Home Counties have been augmented last week by more weighty criticism
by the National Audit Office (NAO) of the scheme. At least, this is how the NAO’s work has come
across in the media.
But the NAO ...
May 23, 2013, 1:24 pm, 1097775
Much of the recent talk about tax has been linked to the avoidance stories by big multi-national companies like Google. An alternative angle that students may find interesting as a counter argument is the use of tax concessions as an incentive by government. The most commonly used example is the ...
May 23, 2013, 7:24 am, 1097528
WOW! Economics has quickly become the leading CPD course for teachers of A Level Economics, IB Economics and equivalent qualifications. Over 350 Economics teachers have attended WOW! Economics 2013 taking away with them over 40 teaching resources.WOW! Economics 2014 is the second edition of the sell-out format and returns with ...
May 22, 2013, 1:24 pm, 1097132
I have to come clean as a self-confessed container nerd (geek alert: follow the world’s containers using this amazing tool). Not only are the ships hugely impressive from an engineering perspective, but they are a gift for an Economics or Business enthusiast. You might want to be thinking about economies ...
May 21, 2013, 7:24 pm, 1096689
What are the costs of a higher average rate of inflation? With CPI inflation staying persistently above target over much of the last six years, to what extent has this undermined UK macro performance? Or has a little extra inflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy (0.5% base rates and £375bn of ...
May 21, 2013, 5:24 pm, 1096615
Here is a video report from the fast-growing country of Indonesia where infrastructure deficiencies threaten their sustainable growth rate.
May 21, 2013, 3:24 pm, 1096534
The headline on the BBC website this afternoon is "Pound falls after surprise dip in inflation". It is important that students taking the A2 economics papers next month are able to give current figures for the macroeconomic indicators, so they should take note of today's CPI inflation figure for April, ...
May 21, 2013, 11:24 am, 1096379
Here's another in a long line of sporting examples that might serve as a useful introduction to Game Theory.
May 21, 2013, 7:24 am, 1096220
By the end of June 2013 over 350 Economics teachers will have attended WOW! Economics 2013 in Manchester, London, Birmingham and Dubai taking away with them a bumper crop of teaching ideas, approaches and ready-to-use resources for their departments and students.There is just ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY to attend WOW! Economics ...
May 21, 2013, 7:24 am, 1096219
We are really looking forward to welcoming old friends and new ones to our annual conference for teachers. Demand for tickets is strong and it could well be a sell out as teachers take advantage of some fantastic departmental deals on offer. Another conference organiser is charging £285 + VAT ...
