Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.


Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


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Winterspeak


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850271
Japan had their credit crises 25 years ago, and has been mired in a slump ever since. The best source I've found to detailing that history is Richard Koo, but he's not great. Here's a nice article with some of this views:

'With quantitative easing under the circumstances we have ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850272
Obama's healthcare plan requires individuals to buy insurance, requires insurance companies to accept all customers, and subsidizes those who cannot afford to buy insurance themselves. Public funding and private provisioning can be a good idea, but the flaws with Obamacare have been well documented elsewhere.

I am not interested ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850273
The public purpose of banking is to provide credit analysis -- namely, to separate good loans (loans that will be paid back) from bad loans (loans that will not be paid back). Therefore, having private banks issue loans that the Government banks makes no sense. Having the Government make


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850274
The NYTimes leads:

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850270
Greek debt is "trading" at about a 450 bps spread, although "trading" is a charitable term considering there are few bids in the market. I think that some commentators do not believe in the US stock market recovery as there has been no structural reform whatsoever, and they would ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850269
8 lbs 11 oz


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850266
The financial reform bill may or may not include a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. I hope it does not. This is because the fundamental role of finance is to make loans that get paid back, and anything that dulls or distracts from this task of credit analysis is contrary to ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850267
ACA met, face-to-face, with Paulson. Which means ACA had the opportunity to talk to Paulson about the CDO. This makes it about ACA incompetence, and not Goldman fraud.


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850268
I very much liked this Michael Lewis quote in an interview with Christopher Lydon:

Lewis: “The people who were responsible for orchestrating the crisis, because they’re on top and they’re in the middle of it, they’re the only ones who are sort of fluent in the language of it. I ...


April 30, 2018, 8:11 pm, 1850265
Funny or sad?