Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Winterspeak


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502106
The public purpose of banking is to provide credit analysis -- namely, to separate good loans (loans that will be paid back) from bad loans (loans that will not be paid back). Therefore, having private banks issue loans that the Government banks makes no sense. Having the Government make


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502107
The NYTimes leads:

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502108
The first from David Kelly via Mosler:

The most obvious quantifiable impact of the bill is an increase in taxes for upper income Americans, particularly on investment income. Starting in 2013, the Medicare tax rate on households with income over $250,000 will be increased from 1.45% to 2.35%. In addition, ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502109
For those of you into motorcycles, here's a series of great interviews with Erik Buell, who used to make the only bikes on the planet worth thinking about.


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502105
Obama's healthcare plan requires individuals to buy insurance, requires insurance companies to accept all customers, and subsidizes those who cannot afford to buy insurance themselves. Public funding and private provisioning can be a good idea, but the flaws with Obamacare have been well documented elsewhere.

I am not interested ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502104
Japan had their credit crises 25 years ago, and has been mired in a slump ever since. The best source I've found to detailing that history is Richard Koo, but he's not great. Here's a nice article with some of this views:

'With quantitative easing under the circumstances we have ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502101
I very much liked this Michael Lewis quote in an interview with Christopher Lydon:

Lewis: “The people who were responsible for orchestrating the crisis, because they’re on top and they’re in the middle of it, they’re the only ones who are sort of fluent in the language of it. I ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502102
8 lbs 11 oz


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502103
Greek debt is "trading" at about a 450 bps spread, although "trading" is a charitable term considering there are few bids in the market. I think that some commentators do not believe in the US stock market recovery as there has been no structural reform whatsoever, and they would ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502100
ACA met, face-to-face, with Paulson. Which means ACA had the opportunity to talk to Paulson about the CDO. This makes it about ACA incompetence, and not Goldman fraud.