Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Winterspeak


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223347
Japan had their credit crises 25 years ago, and has been mired in a slump ever since. The best source I've found to detailing that history is Richard Koo, but he's not great. Here's a nice article with some of this views:

'With quantitative easing under the circumstances we have ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223348
Obama's healthcare plan requires individuals to buy insurance, requires insurance companies to accept all customers, and subsidizes those who cannot afford to buy insurance themselves. Public funding and private provisioning can be a good idea, but the flaws with Obamacare have been well documented elsewhere.

I am not interested ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223349
The public purpose of banking is to provide credit analysis -- namely, to separate good loans (loans that will be paid back) from bad loans (loans that will not be paid back). Therefore, having private banks issue loans that the Government banks makes no sense. Having the Government make


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223350
The NYTimes leads:

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security.

This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223346
Greek debt is "trading" at about a 450 bps spread, although "trading" is a charitable term considering there are few bids in the market. I think that some commentators do not believe in the US stock market recovery as there has been no structural reform whatsoever, and they would ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223345
8 lbs 11 oz


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223342
The financial reform bill may or may not include a Consumer Financial Protection Agency. I hope it does not. This is because the fundamental role of finance is to make loans that get paid back, and anything that dulls or distracts from this task of credit analysis is contrary to ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223343
ACA met, face-to-face, with Paulson. Which means ACA had the opportunity to talk to Paulson about the CDO. This makes it about ACA incompetence, and not Goldman fraud.


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223344
I very much liked this Michael Lewis quote in an interview with Christopher Lydon:

Lewis: “The people who were responsible for orchestrating the crisis, because they’re on top and they’re in the middle of it, they’re the only ones who are sort of fluent in the language of it. I ...


February 11, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1223341
Funny or sad?