Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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October 22, 2016, 12:34 am, 1685788
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingSix Things to Consider About Inflation

October 22, 2016, 12:34 am, 1685789
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssWeek In Review: October 22, 2016 0 Views

October 21, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1685784
Click here to read my column in Sunday's New York Times.

October 21, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1685781
A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssIs Yellen Starting a Civil War at the Fed?

October 21, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1685779

Forbes contributor Adam Ozimek described billionaire Nick Hanauer last May as “America’s Worst Minimum Wage Pundit.” Reason? Because of his “exceptionally wrong and ...

October 21, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1685761
Here is some additional analysis on the labor force participation rate. Dr. Frank Lysy discusses the various reasons for the decline in the labor force participation rate for prime age workers - especially the multi-decade decline for prime working age men: The Structural Factors Behind the Steady Fall ...

October 21, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1685760
(October 21, 2016 05:20 PM, by David Henderson) In 2008, U.S. economist Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Krugman, one of the best-known economists in the world, is familiar to the public mainly through his regular column in the New York Times and for his... (0 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1685759
(Don Boudreaux)

Here are some questions for American protectionists.

– Claiming to be bothered by government-created market distortions, you insist that Uncle Sam should ...

October 21, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1685757

Here’s a slightly shortened version of my op-ed (“Wind an even bigger boondoggle than ethanol“) that is running this weekend in McClatchy newspapers nationwide.

Before ...

October 21, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1685726
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssGlobal EconomyMoney and BanksMoney and BankingPolitical TheoryChina Moves Forward with Its De-Dollarization Strategy

October 21, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685723
(October 21, 2016 02:51 PM, by Scott Sumner) Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, mostly for pragmatic reasons. (As with all social science theories, I do not believe it is literally true---just approximately true.) Now it appears that the... (1 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685722
(Don Boudreaux)

Suppose that vicious and venomous vermin once annually infested the land, putting the ...

October 21, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685721

There are two interesting semi-related initiatives on the ballot for Washington State votes next month, one proposing a state carbon tax and another one calling ...

October 21, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685720

One of President Obama’s greatest diplomatic legacies will be how, through arrogance, disdain, or direction, he convinced allies that long partnerships with Washington meant little to the United States. Historians might focus on the consequence of inaction in Syria or mishandling Libya, but Obama’s broader legacy might be the decline ...

October 21, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1685718

There are two interesting semi-related initiatives on the ballot for Washington State votes next month, one proposing a state carbon tax and another one calling ...

October 21, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685717
The advance GDP report for Q3 GDP will be released next Friday. The consensus is real GDP increased at a 2.5% Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate in Q3.

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third ...

October 21, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1685716
It's the final major snapshot of state labor markets before the Nov. 8 presidential election.

October 21, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1685715

By James Kwak

Mike Konczal wrote an article a few days back arguing that various progressive policies aimed at helping poor people would not be able to pry the “white working class” away from Donald Trump and Trumpism. I think the article was insightful and intelligently argued. This was ...

October 21, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1685714
Tags A A Home | Feed | Blog.rssWorld HistoryPhilosophy and MethodologyPolitical TheoryWhat's the Difference Between Liberalism and "Neoliberalism"? ...

October 21, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1685713

In earlier posts, Emma Smith and I added up central bank purchases of G-4 government bonds. This includes emerging market, Japanese and Swiss purchases for reserve accumulation and purchases by the Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England during periods of quantitative easing (QE).

In ...

October 21, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1685706

October 21, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1685705

If you’ve followed the news, you’ll know that both the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), negotiated between the European Union and the United States, and the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), between the EU and Canada, are facing a massive popular backlash across Europe.

According to a YouGov poll, ...

October 21, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1685700
Brad DeLong wonderswhether macroeconomic policy has been different in the post-2009 recovery. If we assume the role of macroeconomic policy is to stabilize aggregate demand growth, then my answer is an unequivocal yes. Macroeconomic policy was very different during the recovery than in previous periods.

October 21, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685669

Today is October 21, the date in 1942 when the Revenue Act of 1942 was passed, making the federal income tax a broad-based tax for the first time. Personal exemptions were reduced from $1,500 per couple to $1,200 per couple and the lowest tax rate rose from 10 ...

October 21, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685668

Unemployment fell over the past year in nine of the 12 most competitive states in the 2016 presidential election.

The economy and labor market typically rank among the biggest issues on voters’ minds as they head to the polls. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has pointed to economic stability and job growth ...

October 21, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685667

"Maybe Mrs. Clinton is winning because she possesses some fundamental political strengths":

Why Hillary Wins, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate. Hey, that’s what pundits have been saying ever since this endless campaign began. You have to go back to Al Gore in 2000 ...

October 21, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685666

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Neoliberalism and austerity: I like to treat neoliberalism not as some kind of coherent political philosophy, but more as a set of interconnected ideas that have become commonplace in much of our discourse. That the private sector entrepreneur is the wealth creator, and the state typically ...

October 21, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1685664

October 21, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1685665

Sebastian Mallaby’s new biography of former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan, The Man Who Knew, might easily have been titled The Man Who Knew–And Didn’t Act. The central revelation of the book is that Greenspan, far from ...

October 21, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1685660
“The one thing you have over me is experience,” Mr. Trump said at one point. And yet it seemed clear through this last confrontation that there was a gap in knowledge, or at least in command of the material that candidates seeking to be president are expected to master. “Take ...

October 21, 2016, 11:03 am, 1685626
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Unemployment rates were significantly lower in September in 7 states, higher in 1 state, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
New Hampshire and South Dakota ...

October 21, 2016, 10:44 am, 1685625

October 21, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685624

No, here is my latest Bloomberg column on that question.  Here is one bit:

One criticism is that the tribunals could force governments to pay compensatory “takings” to foreign companies that incur costs as a result of safety or environmental regulations. But it has long been standard practice ...

October 21, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685623
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 249 of the 1991 Robert Schalkenbach Foundation edition of Henry George‘s eloquent ...

October 21, 2016, 10:04 am, 1685622

Editor’s Note: Mark Perry, an economist at University of Michigan’s Flint campus and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, responds to billionaire and $15 minimum wage advocate Nick Hanauer’s argument that “The claim that if wages go up, jobs will go down is not a theory — it’s a scam.” Perry argues ...

October 21, 2016, 9:33 am, 1685619
For the next couple days, I will be hanging out at this conference. Various papers available at the link.

October 21, 2016, 9:23 am, 1685618

In recent post, I looked at whether Pound Sterling would have fallen without Brexit vote?

There was a good case to say it was overvalued, but there are a few other factors I’d like to mention.

Big Mac index

According to the Big mac index, the Pound wasn’t overvalued at all. In ...

October 21, 2016, 9:03 am, 1685587
Some interesting analysis on the Labor Force Participation Rate from economist Steven Hipple at the BLS: Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak? (ht Invictus). Hipple discusses many of the trends we have discussed. (see the paper for Hipple's discussion of these trends):

After rising steadily for ...

October 21, 2016, 8:34 am, 1685586

Media chatter about economic recessions tends to come in three flavors. One is the rarely seen diligent species that considers how the macro trend is evolving currently, and may evolve over the next month or so, based on a diversified set of metrics. Then there’s the long-run forecast that makes ...

October 21, 2016, 8:34 am, 1685585

The Sun wants the BBC to sack Gary Lineker for “peddling lies.” Let’s leave aside the fact that the Sun is much better at peddling lies that Mr Lineker ever will be. What this shows, yet again, is that the right is now the enemy of freedom.

October 21, 2016, 8:04 am, 1685583

…the most important technological change for the transportation of heavy goods in nineteenth-century India was not the arrival of the quick, expensive railway: it was the move from pack animals to carts pulled by two or four beasts in the first half of the century.  This was the process ...

October 21, 2016, 8:04 am, 1685582

I’ll be interviewing Mark soon, at a private venue, no public event, but for eventual release in the Conversations with Tyler series.  Here is a short bio of Mark.  He is credited as being the founder of modern Southwestern cuisine, and he was the driving force behind ...

October 21, 2016, 8:04 am, 1685581

October 21, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685576

Not what the article is about, but I see that Steppenwolf is nominated. MC5--kick out the jams!

That was music, people.

October 21, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685575

By All We Ever Knew.

Via my older daughter.

October 21, 2016, 7:33 am, 1685574
Anna Snider

The money market industry is in the midst of significant change. With the implementation this month of new Securities and Exchange Commission rules designed to make money market funds (MMFs) more resilient to stress, institutional prime and tax-exempt funds must report more accurate ...

October 21, 2016, 7:23 am, 1685573

Photo Credit: Alison & Orlando Masis


efore I write my piece, I want to say a word about the virtue of voting for third party ...

October 21, 2016, 7:03 am, 1685561

When junk science goes unchallenged, it can have real world consequences.

In today's example of junk science, we have a case where the real world consequences involve taxes being selectively imposed on a single class of products that is commonly purchased by millions of consumers, soda ...

October 21, 2016, 6:04 am, 1685560

On October 10, Arizonian Mahin Atif Khan pleaded guilty “to charges of terrorism, conspiracy to commit terrorism and conspiracy to commit misconduct involving weapons and will soon face at least seven years in prison for his actions.” A guilty plea to terrorism isn’t usually big news, but Khan’s plea should ...

October 21, 2016, 5:33 am, 1685559

Who says rich people don't have problems?

October 21, 2016, 5:03 am, 1685549

October 21, 2016, 2:34 am, 1685538
A A Tags Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingInflation May Be Causing a Long-Term Rise in Unemployment ...

October 21, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685537

Japan’s Financial Services Agency is nearing a landmark decision on the status and securitisation of PokeCoins, the virtual currency used to breed rare monsters in the highly successful mobile game Pokémon Go.

The FSA, which has not formally disclosed when it will make its ruling, is debating the ...

October 21, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685536
(October 21, 2016 12:44 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In our debate, Robin bemusedly observed that I'm one of those odd people who wouldn't step into a Star Trek transporter. My actual view is more moderate: Before I'd use the transporter, I'd like to know how it works. Does... (2 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685535

Should Pakistani actors in Bollywood be held responsible for the jihadists their government sends across the border to attack India? As relations between the South Asian neighbors continue to sour, this appears to be the new and foolish consensus in India’s entertainment industry.

Earlier this week, Karan Johar, a prominent Indian ...

October 21, 2016, 12:34 am, 1685521
A A Tags Home | Feed | Blog.rssMoney and BanksMoney and BankingHow Inflation Causes Unemployment to Rise Over Time ...

October 21, 2016, 12:04 am, 1685520

Technology has transformed our lives, from how we buy things to how we get around to how we interact with each other. Unfortunately, our country’s social safety net has not kept pace with the tech revolution. It is difficult to navigate, creates perverse incentives, and has a poor track record ...

October 21, 2016, 12:04 am, 1685519

America’s transportation network faces numerous problems. The American Society of Civil Engineers consistently assigns US infrastructure low grades. With revenue from federal fossil-fuel taxes declining, many states and localities lack the resources necessary to expand and maintain their transportation systems. Presidential candidates this year have suggested possible solutions, which include ...