Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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June 26, 2016, 10:35 am, 1648576

Among the many people and organizations to have had a bad referendum campaign, one has so far gone under-remarked: the BBC. The campaign has highlighted profound inadequacies in its current affairs reporting. I mean this in three ways.

First, in being impartial between truth and lies, the ...

June 26, 2016, 8:04 am, 1648547
From Ecowatch: On June 24, foreign oil company TransCanada filed a lawsuit against the U.S. under NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, arguing that the U.S. rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline violated NAFTA’s broad rights for foreign investors by thwarting the company’s “expectations.” As compensation, TransCanada is demanding ...

June 26, 2016, 7:34 am, 1648546

These are two best articles I've read on why Brexit occurred:

"Brexit: A Very British Revolution".

"As a historian, I can assure you this is the most tumultuous event of modern times, a people's revolt against the elite that's been brewing for years".

June 26, 2016, 5:34 am, 1648536

"College Senior hits her first ever home run but tears her ACL rounding 1st. Rules don't allow her teammates to help her around the bases w/out being called out, so the opposing team does."

June 26, 2016, 4:05 am, 1648530

June 26, 2016, 4:04 am, 1648529
My regular column is available to subscribers on This is an excerpt. For many people reading this, Friday morning will have dawned as a moment of triumph, of liberation. That was not how I saw it, as you...

June 26, 2016, 3:03 am, 1648516

June 26, 2016, 2:05 am, 1648514

In 383, the usurper Magnus Maximus withdrew troops from northern and western Britain, probably leaving local warlords in charge. Around 410, the Romano-British expelled the magistrates of the usurper Constantine III, ostensibly in response to his failures to use the ...

June 25, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1648486
(June 25, 2016 10:31 PM, by David Henderson) A straightforward application of public choice theory. Various friends on Facebook have been making fun of Britons who are madly googling to find out the implications of the vote to leave the EU. "Aren't they stupid," "they didn't know what... (1 COMMENTS)

June 25, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1648471
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to the Washington Post:

Jared Bernstein rightly bemoans the hostility to immigrants that is helping ...

June 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1648461
(Don Boudreaux)

I’m sorry to learn that Mike Flynn has died.  I didn’t know him, but I love this joint ...

June 25, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1648458

Here’s the abstract (emphasis added) from a recent research paper titled “Equal but Inequitable: Who Benefits from Gender-Neutral Tenure Clock Stopping Policies?” by three economists Heather Antecol (Claremont McKenna College), Kelly Bedard (UC-Santa Barbara), Jenna Stearns (UC-Santa Barbara):

Abstract: Many skilled professional occupations are characterized by an early period of ...

June 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1648454

Authors: Richard Baldwin, Charlie Bean, Thorsten Beck, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Olivier Blanchard, Peter Bofinger, Paul De Grauwe, Wouter den Haan, Barry Eichengreen, Lars Feld, Marcel Fratzscher, Francesco Giavazzi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Gros, Patrick Honohan, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Tommaso Monacelli, Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Pesenti, Christopher Pissarides, Guido Tabellini, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Guntram ...

June 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1648453

June 25, 2016, 2:05 pm, 1648450

After education and occupation, the share of people not holding a passport was the next most strongly correlated characteristic with the Leave vote.

Here is more from John Burn-Murdoch at FT blogs, via Tim Harford.

The post United Kingdom fact of the day appeared first ...

June 25, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1648449
(June 25, 2016 12:37 PM, by Amy Willis) Malcolm Gladwell has a new podcast project, Revisionist History. The second episode relates the RAND/Pentagon study of enemy combatants during the Vietnam war. Can you measure morale??? The world of self-driving cars is getting a lot closer than I thought.... (0 COMMENTS)

June 25, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1648448
(June 25, 2016 02:00 PM, by Scott Sumner) I can't recall how many times I've visited some tropical paradise, only to be told, "that's funny, it usually never rains at this time of year." When I move to California, I can guarantee that their beautiful Mediterranean climate will... (0 COMMENTS)

June 25, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1648447
… all the fuss about Brexit is about, given that now more people will visit Turnberry, Scotland to golf. Or maybe not. Although that push to repeal Dodd-Frank may save things!

June 25, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1648445
What is it?

I saw this in the parking lot of the hotel where I'm staying. Inspection: yes, it's the chassis of an early 1970s VW, with motor and transmission in place. ...

June 25, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1648444

|Peter Boettke|

The 6th volume of the projected 10 volumes of theCollected Works of Israel M. Kirzner has just be published by Liberty Fund. It is Kirzner's workDiscovery, Capitalism and Distributive Justice. Pick up your copy today and become a "finder keeper" of the rich treasures this work ...

June 25, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1648443
The New York Times has some fun mocking Don Trump today. Here is a quote from this piece."At one point, Mr. Trump even compared his renovation of Trump Turnberry to how he is hoping to overhaul the United States. When a reporter pointed out — correctly — that ...

June 25, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1648442

What would happen if “Based Mom” sat down with “Based Goddess” for an hour to discuss modern-day feminism? No need to speculate—here’s the full one-hour interview (with bonus content!) featuring Factual Feminist Christina Hoff Sommers and Camille Paglia, professor at The University of the Arts. In ...

June 25, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648432
The key economic reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP, May personal income and outlays, June vehicle sales, the June ISM manufacturing, and Case-Shiller House prices.

----- Monday, June 27th -----
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, June ...

June 25, 2016, 12:05 pm, 1648427

There was absolute carnage in various markets following the realization of Brexit, and at times massive asset price changes, sometimes ranging from eight to ten percent, were compressed into minutes or hours.

I recall seeing in my Twitter feed that the dollar-pound rate shift was a ...

June 25, 2016, 10:04 am, 1648407
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 174 of Michael Huemer’s excellent 2013 book, The Problem of Political Authority:

When the justice ...

June 25, 2016, 10:04 am, 1648406
(Don Boudreaux)

According to the mercantilist dogma held by nearly all politicians and pundits (and, yes, also by the People), the best ...

June 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1648401

June 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1648400
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2016.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2016. During the month, the list fell ...

June 25, 2016, 8:35 am, 1648399

Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe
By James K. Galbraith
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
The economic crisis in Greece is a potential international disaster and ...

June 25, 2016, 7:34 am, 1648397

June 25, 2016, 5:34 am, 1648393

Eight-minute video.

If you want a shorter, text version, see Wikipedia.

June 25, 2016, 5:23 am, 1648392

Definition of free movement of labour- It means that workers are entitled to look for work in another country, without requiring any visa.

Free movement of labour is a fundamental principle of the EU. It means EU citizens are entitled to look for a job in another EU country. ...

June 25, 2016, 4:35 am, 1648383

The proposed vote of no-confidence in Jeremy Corbyn worries me: I fear it is based in part upon three motives that are wrong, one of which is plain vicious.

The first of these wrong motives is that Mr Corbyn was only half-hearted in campaigning for Remain. ...

June 25, 2016, 4:05 am, 1648382

1. Fish out of water are more common than thought: “New research shows 33 different families of fish have at least one species that demonstrates some terrestrial activity and, in many cases, these behaviors are likely to have evolved independently in the different families.”

2. Can ...

June 25, 2016, 2:05 am, 1648379

Cornwall has issued an urgent plea for reassurance that it will not be worse off following the Brexit vote.

The county has received a “significant amounts” of funding from the EU for the past 15 years due to its “relatively weak economy”.

But, after 56.5% of voters in the ...

June 25, 2016, 12:34 am, 1648375
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