Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468601

Maybe explains why--despite color being so important to some buyers--color choices seem rather limited these days.


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468602

I liked this bit:

Dave Navarro has a new love in his life.

The 47-year-old Jane's Addiction guitarist is dating Fox News anchor, Andrea Tantaros, 36, reportsUs Weekly.

'Even though they seem like opposites, they have a lot in common,' an insider ...


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468600

May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468599

A few years ago a reader wrote me asking how could I, at my age, still have the tagline for this blog be "Things One Middle-Aged Economist Finds Interesting".

Well, given this latest research--the "science is settled"!--I rest my case.


May 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1468598
Samuel Kapon and Joseph Tracy



The contribution of labor input to the potential GDP growth rate for the United States has changed over time. We decompose this contribution into two components: ...


May 6, 2015, 7:24 am, 1468597

Photo Credit: arsheffield

I imagine the SEC (or the Fed, IRS, or the FSOC) saying: “If we only have enough data, we can answer the policy questions that we are interested in, create better policy, prosecute bad guys, ...


May 6, 2015, 7:03 am, 1468536
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease 4.6 % in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 1, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index decreased ...


May 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1468535

A solid empirical result is that voters reward governments for recent economic prosperity. This column presents new evidence that the electoral fate of governing parties is also associated with the electorate’s wider ‘subjective well-being’. Policymakers who want to win should focus on more a broad range of factors that matter to ...


May 6, 2015, 6:44 am, 1468534
A


May 6, 2015, 6:35 am, 1468533
● Pickup in Service Industries Points to U.S. Growth Rebound: ISM | Bloomberg ● US service sector jobs growth accelerates to 10-month high in April: PMI | Markit ● US Trade Deficit at 6-Year-High | US&WR ● Eurozone March retail sales weaker than expected | Reuters ● Eurozone growth continues ...


May 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1468493

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, March 2015 was an especially remarkable month for imports coming into the United States. Looking at the year-over-year growth rate of the value of goods that the U.S. imports from China, that's something of an understatement:


May 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1468492

May 6, 2015, 4:44 am, 1468491
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May 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1468437

Our level of income is unarguably dependent on where we live in the world. But evidencing this is tricky. This column presents a model that explains global income variability using one variable only – where you live. The results suggest that we might want to reassess how we think about ...


May 6, 2015, 2:44 am, 1468436
A


May 6, 2015, 2:05 am, 1468434

1. Circa 1970, “43 percent of blacks under 21 years of age [have]…a great respect for the [Black Panther Party].”  Many thousands of young black people joined the party.

2. The North Vietnamese “discussed releasing POWs in exchange for the release of Panthers from U.S. jails.”

3. Algeria granted the Panthers national ...


May 6, 2015, 2:05 am, 1468435

After the pagan fighters left their stronghold, a crowd of  Christian Alexandrians and soldiers swarmed the hill.  One of them took an axe and with all his strength struck the jaw of the monumental statue of Serapis…The crowd then hacked the rest of the statue into pieces and dragged the ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 am, 1468433
Picture (literally) this: The Wailing Wall seen from a distance that would represent base to height. With as normal observant Jews at that base praying and inserting prayers into cracks in the wall. At the height a depiction of the Prophet mounted on his horse immediately prior to his Ascent ...


May 6, 2015, 2:04 am, 1468432

If you have trouble registering for this event, please email conferences@aei.org.

Fatherhood is a mixed bag of fun, fury, and failure. So much is lost — no more impulsive road trips or catnaps during football commercials. And yet, as an all-star team of conservative essayists write in “The Dadly Virtues: Adventures ...


May 6, 2015, 1:03 am, 1468389

Michigan voters have resoundingly defeated Proposal 1, a tax package designed to raise an additional $2 billion a year, largely through sales and gas tax increases. Our pre-election analysis of the ballot initiative can be found here.

As of this writing, 


May 6, 2015, 12:44 am, 1468388
2016 candidates, take note: Economic mobility is a bigger worry than income inequality, poll finds


May 6, 2015, 12:04 am, 1468386
(May 6, 2015 12:16 AM, by Bryan Caplan) There really ought to be a paper on George Orwell and Public Choice. Thanks to Loyola University senior Michael Makovi, there finally is. He's done a great job - "George Orwell as Public Choice Economist," forthcoming in The American Economist,... (0 ...


May 5, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1468385
Those who claim there will be no Greece contagion need consider yields in other European bonds.

In spite of the fact the ECB is buying 60 billion euros of debt a month for 19 months, yields on many longer-dated bonds are rising.

Spain 10-Year Yield


May 5, 2015, 10:45 pm, 1468324
2016 candidates, take note: Economic mobility is a bigger worry than income inequality, poll finds


May 5, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1468323
A


May 5, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1468258

The Federal Reserve shouldn’t raise its benchmark short-term interest rate in 2015, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota reiterated Tuesday.

The U.S. central bank “can best achieve its objectives by keeping the fed funds rate target at its current level during this calendar year,” Mr. Kocherlakota said in remarks ...


May 5, 2015, 8:05 pm, 1468256

Fans of Game of Thrones know that “a Lannister always pays his debts.” So too do nearly all alumni from Notre Dame, Vassar, Harvey Mudd, and Brigham Young, at least when it comes to federal student loans.

There is more here, from Brookings, via Matthew C. Klein.  ...


May 5, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1468255

This article appears in the May 4, 2015 issue of National Review.

In my last column, I showed that policy uncertainty rises as presidential and midterm elections approach and cited research that documented a strong negative statistical link between economic-policy uncertainty and economic growth. I heard back from many National Review ...


May 5, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1468194
Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 205,000 payroll jobs added in ...


May 5, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1468193
A


May 5, 2015, 6:35 pm, 1468192

I am delighted to announce a major new endowment gift for the Tax Policy Center from Robert C. Pozen. His gift will establish the Pozen Director’s Chair at TPC in perpetuity.  I’m honored to be its inaugural holder.

Bob is a ...


May 5, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1468191
Teaser:


May 5, 2015, 6:05 pm, 1468188

May 5, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1468187
(May 5, 2015 05:02 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) In 1851, the London Great Exhibition was promoted by Prince Albert and a Royal Commission that included, among others, William Gladstone and Richard Cobden, the great apostle of free trade who conducted the campaign that led to the abolition of... (0 ...


May 5, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1468186
(Don Boudreaux)

Sorry, I just can’t resist….

Here’s the lead paragraph from this report in yesterday’s Miami Herald:

A jury Monday found a couple guilty of having sex on Bradenton Beach after only 15 minutes of deliberation.

The report, however, did not say how long a couple must deliberate before having sex on ...


May 5, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1468185

Over at the Corner, my AEI colleague Ramesh Ponnuru looks at former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s shameless – and I think mistaken – pitch to seniors as Huckabee launches his campaign for the GOP presidential nomination. Huckabee says:

You were forced to pay for Social Security and Medicare for 50 ...


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468120

This week is National Small Business Week. From the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) website:

“Every year since 1963, the President of the United States has issued a proclamation announcing National Small Business Week, which recognizes the critical contributions of America’s entrepreneurs and small business owners.”

Small businesses are important ...


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468118
Senators are looking at legislation that would put “real constraints” around the Fed’s emergency lending powers. J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Unhappiness with the Federal Reserve may be ...


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468119
The first-quarter trade deficit took a hit from the unwinding of backlogs at West Coast ports, such as Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, shown in February.


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468116
Bostjan Jazbec in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in 2013. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The stimulus programs launched by the European Central Bank over the past year are working, but it ...


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468117
A man shops for shoes in Mexico City in February. The economic recovery in the U.S. is helping spending as immigrants send more money home to their families.


May 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1468115
I posted these graphs regularly during the recession and recovery.

Here is a final update (until the next recession) to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs ...


May 5, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468113
A


May 5, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468114
A


May 5, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468112
A


May 5, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1468111
A


May 5, 2015, 4:35 pm, 1468110

I am delighted to announce a major new endowment gift for the Tax Policy Center from Robert C. Pozen. His gift will establish the Pozen Director’s Chair at TPC in perpetuity.  I’m honored to be its inaugural holder.

Bob is a ...


May 5, 2015, 4:05 pm, 1468108

The limited data available do not suggest a recent overall increase in the number of homicides by police or the racial composition of those killed, despite the high-profile cases and controversies of 2014-2015, according to a New York Times analysis. But a January 2015 report published in the Harvard ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468107

May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468106


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468104

President Obama’s decision to nominate Marine Commandant Gen. Joseph Dunford to become the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is a very good move. It’s also a little bit of a surprise: Even though it’s been clear for a while that Dunford was going to be the last man ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468105

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama: We’ve had three back-to-back, two-term presidencies for the first time since the 1820s. Each of these men took office with his party in control of both chambers of Congress; by their seventh year in office, both chambers belonged to the opposition. They have ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468103

Last Friday, Mexican authorities opened a new front in their anti-drug campaign by launching an offensive in the State of Jalisco against two of the country’s most profitable cartels. And, all hell broke loose. Within hours, the New Generation Cartel of Jalisco (CJNG) and Los Cuinis mobilized more than 500 ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468102

I’m going to step out of my lane for a short rant today.
Here was the fourth grade prep sheet from our school system about famous Americans.

Citizens who gave service to our country:
Benjamin Franklin
Helen Keller
Eleanor Roosevelt
George Washington Carver

Citizens who helped shape our government:
George Washington
Betsy ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468100

A new phrase has rapidly become familiar in schooling: “opt-out.” Across the nation, hundreds of thousands of students are refusing to take state reading and math tests, usually at the behest of their parents. In New York, 200,000 students have opted out of this spring’s state tests. Some New York ...


May 5, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1468101

GOP presidential candidate Carly Fiorina blames unionization for pay differences between men and women. The Washington Post’s Max Ehrenfreund covers the issue today and includes some comments from me. He gets many things right. But not all.

To start, Ehrenfruend states that “Women made 82 cents for every dollar men ...


May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468094
The JS-Kit/Echo comment system I had on this blog is now defunct. The company recently dropped support across the board for everyone.

I am looking for a replacement comment system. In the meantime, thanks for your patience.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a ...


May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468093
I had a lot of fun this morning on CNBC.

Rick Santelli invited me on his show to discuss Beware, the Tax Man Has Eyes on You: Potential Hike for Illinoisans is Staggering and a few other recent posts of mine on the plight of Chicago. ...


May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468092

Is it time to rethink the academic conference?

Academic conferences are a habit from the past, embraced by the administrativersity as a way to showcase knowledge and to increase productivity in the form of published conference proceedings. We have been complicit. Until now.

We believe it is time to ...


May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468091

Inspired by Don Boudreaux’s open letter to Sen. Bernie Sanders:

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Capitol Hill
Washington, DC

Dear Sen. Sanders:

You want to raise the minimum wage and prevent what you allege to be “corporately backed” freer trade.  Your positions are inconsistent with each other.

Presumably ...


May 5, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1468030
Bostjan Jazbec in Ljubljana, Slovenia, in 2013. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The stimulus programs launched by the European Central Bank over the past year are working, but it ...


May 5, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1468029

Paul Krugman:

Explaining US Inequality Exceptionalism: Disposable income in the United States is more unequally distributed than in most other advanced countries. But why? ... Janet Gornick and Branko Milanovic at the CUNY Graduate Center’s Luxembourg Income Study Center shed light on the question, partly overturning what all of ...


May 5, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1468028

Today’s March trade release brought unwelcome news, making the advance release (discussed by Jim here) appear optimistic by comparison. From Reuters:

A surge in imports lifted the U.S. trade deficit in March to its highest level in nearly 6-1/2 years, suggesting the economy contracted in the first quarter.

Growth, ...


May 5, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1468019
Greece Talks on Hold

Pierre Moscovici, the European commissioner for economic affairs, warns Debt Talks on Hold Until Greece Agrees Reforms.

Greece’s eurozone creditors will not discuss how to get the country’s sovereign debt back on a sustainable path until Athens agrees to a new economic ...


May 5, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1468018
On April 29 in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I commented "The second estimate of Q1 GDP comes out on May 29. Any number of changes could send Q1 negative."

Here we are already. Imports subtract from GDP and March trade ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467957

In addition to the federal estate tax (which is fourth highest in the OECD), many U.S. states levy their own estate and inheritance taxes.  While estate taxes are charged against the estate regardless of who inherits the assets, inheritance taxes are levied on the transfer of assets to ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467955
Raghuram Rajan and the Reserve Bank of India are clashing with the country’s finance ministry over the composition of a proposed monetary-policy committee. Mike Theiler/Reuters

NEW DELHI—A ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467956
Reuters

Factory-floor readings in April paint a bleak picture for many of Asia’s manufacturers, with Vietnam as a notable exception. Here are five takeaways from HSBC’s purchasing-managers index readings from across the region:

#1: Domestic Demand Is Still Dismal ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467954

 

MONDAY

9 a.m. EDT: Fed’s Tarullo delivers opening remarks at an Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act outreach meeting in Boston 12:25 p.m. EDT: Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks in Columbus, Ind. 3:10 p.m. EDT: ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467953

Here’s your morning jolt of news, insight and analysis on the global energy business. Send us tips, suggestions and complaints: EnergyJournal@wsj.com

Sign up for this newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/EnergyJournalSignup

MINE SALE WOULD END GOLDMAN RAW-MATERIALS OUTPUT


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467951
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago leader Charles Evans repeated on Monday his belief that raising rates this year would be a bad idea, especially in the ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467952
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467948
Americans are more concerned about moving up than they are about how much more, or less, their neighbor might make. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Presidential candidates, take note: ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467947
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen wrote a letter, dated Monday, to congressional chairmen investigating the early release of sensitive Federal Open Market Committee details by a consulting ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467949

In brief comments Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams sounded an optimistic note on the economy and said he expects to see further improvement in employment as the year moves forward.


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467950
An oil drill in Midland, Texas, in February. SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

The U.S. energy boom may offer a modest boost to the U.S. economy but probably won’t ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467946
Bloomberg News

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year to a record-low 2.0%, moving to shore up growth in the face falling commodity prices and China’s slowdown. But many interpreted the accompanying statement as a signal ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467944
In April, House Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.), right, introduced a bill that would present a very different direction for U.S. trade policy. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, (R., Wis.) ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467941
A man shops for shoes in Mexico City in February. The economic recovery in the U.S. is helping spending as immigrants send more money home to their families.


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467942

Unhappiness with the Federal Reserve may be the ingredient needed to bring bipartisan support to a broader regulatory relief bill.

Republican Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana and Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren are working on legislation that would place further constraints on the Fed’s emergency lending powers and are discussing how ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467943
The first-quarter trade deficit took a hit from the unwinding of backlogs at West Coast ports, such as Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, shown in February.


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467945

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 5, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny Fed’s Williams ‘Very ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467940

Andrew Jalil and Gisela Rua:

Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record, by Andrew Jalil and Gisela Rua, April 2015: Abstract This paper uses the historical narrative record to determine whether inflation expectations shifted during the second quarter of 1933, precisely as ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467939

I have a new column:

Supply-Side Social Insurance: David Brooks’ claim that “the federal government spent nearly $14,000 per poor person” in 2013 and his claim that “over the last 30 years the poverty rate has scarcely changed” have both been thoroughly debunked. The responses show very ...


May 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1467938
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports National Homes Prices Rose by 5.6 Percent Year Over ...


May 5, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1467937
2016 candidates, take note: Economic mobility is a bigger worry than income inequality, poll finds


May 5, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1467936
A


May 5, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1467935
A


May 5, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1467934
Teaser:

You’re ...


May 5, 2015, 12:05 pm, 1467930

After promoting women’s groups in West Bengal as a route to development a West Bengali woman asked Lant Pritchett:

You all are from countries that are much richer and doing much better than our country so your country’s women’s self-help groups must also be much better, tell us how women’s self-help ...


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467929
(May 5, 2015 11:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Lately I've heard libertarians ridiculed because their argument against some law boils down to, "Because freedom." Why shouldn't we have inheritance taxes? Because freedom. Why shouldn't we ban handguns? Because freedom. Why shouldn't we have an affirmative consent standard for... (3 ...


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467928
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses the Iranian vessel takeover, the situation in Yemen, and the shooting in Garland, Texas on Fox Business' 'Lou Dobbs Tonight.'


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467927
Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses Hillary Clinton agreeing to testify before the House Benghazi committee on Fox News' 'America's Newsroom.'


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467926

We’re joined this week by the CEO of the Case Foundation, Jean Case. Case sits down with us to discuss the philosophy of the Case Foundation, what they look for in a project, and how they define success. We also spend some time discussing millennial involvement in philanthropy and what they ...


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467924

In a flashback to US operations against Iran from 1987-1988 during the Tanker War, the Navy has begun accompanying US-flagged commercial ships as they pass the through the Strait of Hormuz. The administration has realized the encirclement of the Maersk Kensington on April 24 and the detention of ...


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467925

May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467922

Trade debates are making for strange bedfellows. Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.) this week published a set of concerns on trade promotion authority (TPA) that look like they were drafted by a labor union. The concerns include statements about trade deficits, immigration and other matters at odds with both facts ...


May 5, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1467923

Margrethe Vestager is one of the most influential women in Danish politics but it was her recent decisions as European Commissioner for Competition to take on both Google and Gazprom that turned her into a globally recognised figure.

The two cases are very different. Google’s dominance may be a fleeting one ...


May 5, 2015, 11:33 am, 1467921
Many producers have approached Ron Paul about doing a documentary regarding Paul's philosophical views.

Until now, Ron Paul has turned down all such overtures.

Empire of Lies

I am pleased to report that Ron Paul just now authorized a long-time friend, Charles Goyette, to make that documentary. ...


May 5, 2015, 11:33 am, 1467920
The NY Times reports:

For investors in hedge funds, like big pension funds, 2014 was not a lucrative year. But for those who managed their money, the pay was spectacular.


May 5, 2015, 11:33 am, 1467919
Anticipate and react. This mantra holds in basketball and in climate change adaptation. Airports in Boston and San Francisco are well aware that their location places them at risk from sea level rise. Are they passively crossing their fingers and hoping for the best? Or course not. Here is Logan ...


May 5, 2015, 11:24 am, 1467918
A


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467855

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said Friday it’s still possible the U.S. central bank can raise interest rates this summer.

Speaking to reporters Friday, Mr. Williams said that while economic activity over the start of the year was disappointing, he had not yet changed his forecast for ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467856
President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan visit the Lincoln Memorial on Monday in Washington. Mr. Abe was in the nation’s capital to discuss a range ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467854
The April employment report will headline a busy data week for economy-watchers. Coming reports might change what we think of first-quarter growth and our views of what’s ahead.


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467853
Reuters

Factory-floor readings in April paint a bleak picture for many of Asia’s manufacturers, with Vietnam as a notable exception. Here are five takeaways from HSBC’s purchasing-managers index readings from across the region:

#1: Domestic Demand Is Still Dismal ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467850

Here’s your morning jolt of news, insight and analysis on the global energy business. Send us tips, suggestions and complaints: EnergyJournal@wsj.com

Sign up for this newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/EnergyJournalSignup

MINE SALE WOULD END GOLDMAN RAW-MATERIALS OUTPUT


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467851

 

MONDAY

9 a.m. EDT: Fed’s Tarullo delivers opening remarks at an Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act outreach meeting in Boston 12:25 p.m. EDT: Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks in Columbus, Ind. 3:10 p.m. EDT: ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467852
Raghuram Rajan and the Reserve Bank of India are clashing with the country’s finance ministry over the composition of a proposed monetary-policy committee. Mike Theiler/Reuters

NEW DELHI—A ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467846

In brief comments Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams sounded an optimistic note on the economy and said he expects to see further improvement in employment as the year moves forward.


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467847
An oil drill in Midland, Texas, in February. SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

The U.S. energy boom may offer a modest boost to the U.S. economy but probably won’t ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467849
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Bernanke ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467845
Americans are more concerned about moving up than they are about how much more, or less, their neighbor might make. JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Presidential candidates, take note: ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467848
Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago leader Charles Evans repeated on Monday his belief that raising rates this year would be a bad idea, especially in the ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467844
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen wrote a letter, dated Monday, to congressional chairmen investigating the early release of sensitive Federal Open Market Committee details by a consulting ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467840
The first-quarter trade deficit took a hit from the unwinding of backlogs at West Coast ports, such as Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, shown in February.


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467843
Bloomberg News

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year to a record-low 2.0%, moving to shore up growth in the face falling commodity prices and China’s slowdown. But many interpreted the accompanying statement as a signal ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467841
In April, House Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.), right, introduced a bill that would present a very different direction for U.S. trade policy. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, (R., Wis.) ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467842

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 5, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny Fed’s Williams ‘Very ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467839

Unhappiness with the Federal Reserve may be the ingredient needed to bring bipartisan support to a broader regulatory relief bill.

Republican Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana and Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren are working on legislation that would place further constraints on the Fed’s emergency lending powers and are discussing how ...


May 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1467838
The April ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 57.8%, up from 56.5% in March. The employment index increased in April to 56.7%, up slightly from 56.6% in March.Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2015 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® ...


May 5, 2015, 10:44 am, 1467837
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May 5, 2015, 10:44 am, 1467836
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May 5, 2015, 10:44 am, 1467835
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May 5, 2015, 10:44 am, 1467834
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May 5, 2015, 10:35 am, 1467833
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 195,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s April update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection represents a slightly higher increase vs. February’s rise. The Capital Spectator’s median ...


May 5, 2015, 10:35 am, 1467832

Louisiana’s Governor Bobby Jindal doesn’t want to raise taxes on the entertainment industry. Bloomberg reports that the state’s $1.6 billion budget gap won’t be filled by dropping a $415,000 per episode tax break for “Duck Dynasty.” Louisiana gives moviemakers a tax credit of up to 30 percent of their ...


May 5, 2015, 10:35 am, 1467831

One of the many issues which hasn't had the attention it deserves in this election campaign is the paradox of voter turnout: the people most likely to vote are those with least at stake, whilst those least likely to vote have the most at stake.

I mean ...


May 5, 2015, 10:34 am, 1467830
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May 5, 2015, 10:04 am, 1467828
(Don Boudreaux)

My colleague Larry White summarizes, in this splendid essay at Alt-M, what you should know about the history of free banking.  Here’s Larry’s conclusion:

Where free banking was given a reasonable trial, for example in Scotland and Canada, it functioned well for the typical user of money and ...


May 5, 2015, 10:04 am, 1467827

A few years back, I wrote in the Financial Times that the “special relationship” between the UK and the US was in serious jeopardy for the simple reason that the cornerstone of the relationship since its earliest days, shared “hard power”—military and intelligence—was in steep decline on the UK ...


May 5, 2015, 10:04 am, 1467826

On April 29, the House Energy and Commerce Committee released a new discussion draft of the 21st Century Cures Initiative, a bill intended to revitalize and streamline American medical innovation. The draft contains a number of important and exciting provisions, including increased funding for the National Institutes of ...


May 5, 2015, 9:34 am, 1467823

|Peter Boettke|

Peter Klein recently discussed a paper dealing with innovation. The argument presented is straightforward --- there are only so many ideas, creativity isn't really about thinking thoughts that nobody has ever thought about before, but in taking existing ideas and arranging them in combinations that ...


May 5, 2015, 9:03 am, 1467762

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, May 5, 2015:

Sign up for the newsletter: http://on.wsj.com/grandcentralsignup


Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: The Fed’s Emergency Lending Powers Come Under New Congressional Scrutiny Fed’s Williams ‘Very ...


May 5, 2015, 9:03 am, 1467761
In April, House Rep. Sander Levin (D., Mich.), right, introduced a bill that would present a very different direction for U.S. trade policy. Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, (R., Wis.) ...


May 5, 2015, 9:03 am, 1467760
The Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $51.4 billion in March, up $15.5 billion from $35.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $187.8 billion, $1.6 ...


May 5, 2015, 8:44 am, 1467759
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May 5, 2015, 8:35 am, 1467758
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans recommends waiting until 2016 to start raising interest rates. The tipping point, he advised in a speech yesterday, should be compelling evidence that wages are rising in a robust degree. For the moment, that evidence is lacking, he noted. Yet it’s not obvious that the ...


May 5, 2015, 8:35 am, 1467757

Louisiana’s Governor Bobby Jindal doesn’t want to raise taxes on the entertainment industry. Bloomberg reports that the state’s $1.6 billion budget gap won’t be filled by dropping a $415,000 per episode tax break for “Duck Dynasty.” Louisiana gives moviemakers a tax credit of up to 30 percent of their ...


May 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1467756
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 213 of the 5th edition (2015) of Thomas Sowell’s Basic Economics:

An employer who refuses to hire qualified individuals from the “wrong” groups risks leaving his job unfilled longer in a free market.  This means that he must either leave some work undone and some ...


May 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1467755


May 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1467754

Martin O’Malley (D) says he plans to announce his presidential campaign in Baltimore. Perhaps he’ll used a burned-out police car or a looted storefront as his backdrop. The former Maryland governor and Baltimore mayor tried to blame last week’s unrest on structural problems in our economy, outsourcing and a failure ...


May 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1467749

Fine piece by Stephen Moore about who bears the cost of the extreme environmentalists' policies.


May 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1467750

Glenn Reynolds has some fun with the recent report that regarding endowments, the rich colleges and universities are getting richer.


May 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1467747

"How Blue NYC is Strangling Itself".

New York City could be facing fiscal death by expensive bus stations.

"Big Blue is Killing Upstate New York".

Upstate New York is dying—and big blue is its killer.

'Reform for Relief'” Coming to Blue Cities".

Chicago ...


May 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1467748

I'd like to see data from 10, 20, and 30 years ago, but this sounds pretty bad:

According to thelatest supplemental surveyfrom the New York Fed's manufacturing and business leaders surveys, employers in the New York area are facing two main problems: finding workers who can ...


May 5, 2015, 7:03 am, 1467686
Bloomberg News

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year to a record-low 2.0%, moving to shore up growth in the face falling commodity prices and China’s slowdown. But many interpreted the accompanying statement as a signal ...


May 5, 2015, 6:44 am, 1467685

China’s export-led growth has coincided with the country becoming one of the largest net global creditors. This column looks ahead to the next chapter of Chinese ‘outwards mercantilism’ – FDI investment in natural resources, commodities and mining bundled with access to finance and the export of Chinese capital products and ...


May 5, 2015, 6:44 am, 1467684

Indian children are more likely to be malnourished than their counterparts in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite higher standards of living. This column uses data on child height – an anthropometric measure of net nutrition – from Africa and India to explore how parental gender preferences affect the likelihood of children being ...


May 5, 2015, 6:44 am, 1467683
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May 5, 2015, 6:35 am, 1467682
● US factory orders rebound solidly, but trend still soft | Reuters ● Global Manufacturing PMI falls to 21-month low | Markit ● Eurozone producer prices pick up | MarketWatch ● Reserve Bank of Australia cuts official cash rate to record low 2% | SMH ● Inflation Expectations Tick Up ...


May 5, 2015, 5:33 am, 1467679

I can imagine several other subjects studied at the nation's finest colleges and universities that wouldn't do well on such a test.


May 5, 2015, 5:03 am, 1467626

How much of a correlation is there between falling oil prices and the number of layoffs, as measured by seasonally adjusted new jobless claims, in the eight states whose oil industries employ high cost production methods for extracting crude oil?

To us, that's an interesting ...


May 5, 2015, 4:44 am, 1467625

The evidence about the effect of bribery on economic growth is mixed. Some find it harmful while others believe it helps via a ‘grease the wheels’ effect. This column argues that the ambiguity can be explained by divergent effects of the mean and dispersion of corruption. A high bribery-mean retards ...