Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338346

Looking at Italy’s ballooning debt, Germany’s reluctance to allow the European Central Bank free rein on the cash lever makes some sense.

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday cut its outlook for the Belpaese again, forecasting a 0.1% contraction instead of 0.3% growth this year.  That means a third consecutive ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338345

The House has approved a bill that would open the Federal Reserve’s activities, including its deliberations on interest rate policy, to increased congressional scrutiny.

The legislation would direct the Government Accountability Office to conduct a “full audit” of the Fed’s operations and report back to Congress. Currently, the GAO reviews the ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338344

Households in the U.S. borrowed more on credit cards, cars and their educations in the second quarter and their collective net worth climbed to a new record, according to a new Federal Reserve report. But the Fed report from which these numbers are drawn, known as the Flow of Funds, does ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338347

In a sign that the scars from the financial crisis maybe healing, travelers in the U.S. are spending more on flights while slowing outlays on typically less-expensive forms of transportation such as cars, trains and buses.

Inflation-adjusted spending on travel and tourism in the U.S. rose at a 2.1% seasonally ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338349

The median American worker has been on the job for 4.6 years, according to new data from the Department of Labor, little changed over the past two years. But while the trends in job tenure change very slowly, the release provides an interesting snapshot of how people at different ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338351

The Labor Department’s number crunchers pretty much nailed it.

A preliminary annual revision to payroll data, released Thursday, shows an earlier count of how many people were employed in the U.S. in March ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338350

Average weekly wages went up in most large counties during the first quarter of 2014, reflecting a broader national increase, the Labor Department reported today.

Among the 339 largest counties, 323 experienced wage increases from the first quarter of 2013 to the same period this year, according to the the


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338343

The propaganda war over Ukraine has a new addition: a fake letter by International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde to Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk spurning the leader’s alleged request for more cash.

It has been posted by pro-Russian separatist sites such as E-News and NovoRussia.

But the letter ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338348
The Ebola crisis has pushed some food prices in Monrovia’s West Point slum, where people wait earlier this month for a World Food Program distribution, above other areas in Liberian ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338352

Housing construction dipped in August, driven by a 32% drop from July in the notoriously volatile multifamily sector.

But beyond the month-to-month noise, the trends haven’t changed. Apartment construction over the past year ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338336

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply across the U.S. over the year, but some states performed far better than others.

Among the 50 states, joblessness fell fastest in Illinois, which saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7% in August from 9.2% a year earlier.

As of August, North Dakota had the


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338342
Getty Images

New Zealanders go to the polls Saturday. Here are five things to know about the election and its impact on the economy.

#1: A TIGHT RACE

The ruling National Party is ahead in the polls but ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338334
Economic reports scheduled for next week will offer new looks at the spring growth spurt, August home sales and durable goods activity. In addition, a slew of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak about the economy and monetary policy. Here are five points of interest on tap next week:


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338333

Banking regulators have spent much of their post-crisis time focusing on Wall Street balance sheets. Now they’re taking aim at banks’ culture as well.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will hold a conference on October 20 on bank ethics and culture, according to people familiar with the event. A ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338337

Higher levels of student debt will reduce U.S. home sales by around 8% this year, according to a report released Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an advisory firm.

The ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338335

Newark, N.J., leads the pack of U.S. cities with the highest share of residents who don’t use banks, a new report shows.

There have long been concerns—both in the government and in the banking industry—about the number of households that lack access to the U.S. banking system, with many efforts to ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338341

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, September 19, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Da Costa’s Take: Market Frets Over Hawkish Dots Despite Dismissive Yellen Yellen Highlights Deepening U.S. ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338340

The Federal Reserve should sell its holdings of mortgage bonds as it tightens monetary policy, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday, so that it might move away from what he sees as the inappropriate allocation of credit to a specific sector in the economy.

Mr. Lacker, considered an inflation hawk, ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338339

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Friday he’d like to the see the U.S. central bank begin to raise rates early next year, in an interview on Fox Business Network.

When it comes to making the first move to lift interest rates off of their current near ...


September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338338

The best way to expand technology use in developing countries is to boost local research and development spending, right? Nope. It’s to hand out more visas.

That’s according to a new paper by University of Colorado economics professor Keith Maskus, who argues that allowing freer movement of skilled workers across ...


September 20, 2014, 12:34 am, 1338332

In spite of its failure in the short term, the Scottish campaign exposed elite dread of decentralization while establishing a precedent that regions can decide for themselves to secede even without a nation-wide vote. The campaign also illustrates anew ongoing trends in the ...


September 19, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1338322

The Second Circuit has refused to hear Citibank's appeal of Judge Griesa's order enjoining Citi from making payment on USD-denominated, Argentine-law bonds. The Second Circuit's order is a bit... Delphic. Weighing in at all of 56 words, not counting citations, the court simply "decline[d] ...


September 19, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1338317
Sometimes the press deserves a little applause. Peter Coy atBusiness Week and Pat Regnier atTime both wrote articles very nicely explaining bank capital and many fallacies around it.

Both articles also have nice graphics, but I give Coy and BusinessWeek the A+, because it also ...


September 19, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1338299

Technological advances in equity markets entered the spotlight following the Flash Crash of May 2010. This column analyses the advantages and disadvantages of algorithmic and high-frequency trading. Ever-faster exchanges do not always improve liquidity. Following a speed upgrade in the Nordic equity markets, effective spreads posted by high-frequency traders increased ...


September 19, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1338298

With the recent Global Crisis, the interest in systemic risk and the interconnection between financial institutions has increased. This column investigates the case of European financial firms, where several factors can jeopardise a firm’s financial health. Using data since 2000 to evaluate the firms’ systemic risk, the authors find that ...


September 19, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1338293
John Boehner says that unemployed Americans are pretty clearly malingerers, bums on welfare who have decided that they don’t feel like working: “This idea that has been born, maybe out of the economy over the last couple years, that you know, I really don’t have to work. I don’t really want ...


September 19, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1338291
Here is a photo taken of King James today at UCLA. To my surprise, his people didn't call my people to arrange a meeting. I just sent him a tweet telling him to stick around Westwood for 2 weeks so he can attend my environmental economics class. I ...


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338252

Higher levels of student debt will reduce U.S. home sales by around 8% this year, according to a report released Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an advisory firm.

The ...


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338251

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply across the U.S. over the year, but some states performed far better than others.

Among the 50 states, joblessness fell fastest in Illinois, which saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7% in August from 9.2% a year earlier.

As of August, North Dakota had the


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338250

Newark, N.J., leads the pack of U.S. cities with the highest share of residents who don’t use banks, a new report shows.

There have long been concerns—both in the government and in the banking industry—about the number of households that lack access to the U.S. banking system, with many efforts to ...


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338248

Banking regulators have spent much of their post-crisis time focusing on Wall Street balance sheets. Now they’re taking aim at banks’ culture as well.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will hold a conference on October 20 on bank ethics and culture, according to people familiar with the event. A ...


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338249
Economic reports scheduled for next week will offer new looks at the spring growth spurt, August home sales and durable goods activity. In addition, a slew of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak about the economy and monetary policy. Here are five points of interest on tap next week:


September 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1338247

The MacIver Institute, an organization of endlessly imaginative analysis, has highlighted this LFB memo reports that under the right conditions, the structural budget balance will $535 for the 2015-17 biennium.

Those assumptions include a $116 million cut to this FY’s appropriations, revenues in the 2015-17 biennium would rise ...


September 19, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1338245
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September 19, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1338246
A


September 19, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1338244
A


September 19, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1338243

By James Kwak

You may have noticed that my blogging has tailed way off over the past few months—to, well, just about nothing. You probably noticed that it was pretty spotty for a long time before that. The main reason is that I’ve been busy with a new teaching job, which requires ...


September 19, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1338242

This week the rating agency Standard and Poor’s got a lot of attention for a study that concluded that rising income inequality is damaging state tax revenues.

Well, state tax revenue growth has slowed in recent decades and income inequality has grown. But the story is far more complicated than ...


September 19, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1338239
(September 19, 2014 06:01 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Scotland won't secede: 54% voted for 'no', 46% voted 'yes'. The composure with which the losers conceded tells you something about this referendum. The secessionists had remarkably little complaint with the state of the Union. They did not push for... (0 COMMENTS)


September 19, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1338238
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to Fred Hochberg, Chairman and President of that great geyser of cronyism, the U.S. Export-Import Bank:

Dear Mr. Hochberg:

I seldom agree with any of your attempts to justify the existence of your government agency.  The Export-Import Bank is, after all, a bureaucracy that diverts private-sector resources ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338172

Recently, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) released a bill that would retroactively change interest deduction laws and ownership requirements for inverted companies going back to 1994. We’ve discussed how this is an attempt to fix a problem that only sound tax reform can solve, but the bill’s retroactivity ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338171

A group of professors recently released a study that finds insufficient discussion of the total cost of taxes in public finance textbooks. They find that common textbooks fail to fully include the total cost of taxes into discussions of public goods and cost-benefit analyses. I quote the abstract ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338170

Newark, N.J., leads the pack of U.S. cities with the highest share of residents who don’t use banks, a new report shows.

There have long been concerns—both in the government and in the banking industry—about the number of households that lack access to the U.S. banking system, with many efforts to ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338169
Economic reports scheduled for next week will offer new looks at the spring growth spurt, August home sales and durable goods activity. In addition, a slew of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak about the economy and monetary policy. Here are five points of interest on tap next week:


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338168

Banking regulators have spent much of their post-crisis time focusing on Wall Street balance sheets. Now they’re taking aim at banks’ culture as well.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will hold a conference on October 20 on bank ethics and culture, according to people familiar with the event. A ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1338167
Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.

From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Advance in July amid Rising Transaction Volume and Improving Liquidity Measures

CoStar’s equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index increased by a strong 1.5% in July 2014 and 11.9% for the ...


September 19, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1338165
A


September 19, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1338166
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September 19, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1338164
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September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338159
A Fiscal Times, Yahoo Finance article by by John Grgurich claims that Instead of QE, Fed Could Have Given $56,000 to Every Household in America .

Grgurich formulated his article after reading "an intriguing piece just published in Foreign Affairs, Brown University political economist Mark Blyth and ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338157

Ooops! wrong title (sigh) ...

As we’ve pointed out before, economics and business journals have few retractions compared with the other academic literature. Opinions vary on why this is, but the fact that only a few journals have plagiarism policies can’t help.

Research Papers in Economics, or RePEc, an organization ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338158

Tyler Cowen:

That is a new paper (pdf) by John Cawley, here is the abstract:

This guide, updated for the 2014-15 job market season, describes the academic market for new Ph.D. economists and offers advice on conducting an academic job search. It reports findings from published papers, describes practical details, ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338156
From the UCSB Bren School of ES & M:

In March we told you about a paper written by Bren professor Chris Costello and former Bren ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338154

One of my favorite policy heuristics: “The history of big bank failure is a history of the state blinking before private creditors” – Andrew Haldane. Which leads me to this reality-based analysis by Adam White via his review of Tim Geithner’s book:

Geithner criticizes ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338155

Venture capitalist Peter Thiel makes a great point in a Q&A with MIT Technology Review that reflects on economic dynamism and large companies (a favorite theme of mind):

Can technology companies that start out bold stay that way when they become established? Many large computing ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338153

Charles Blahous makes a number of great points in an e21 essay on the fiscal future of Medicare — and the US budget. While it is true, as a recent New York Times piece notes, that the Medicare spending projections has declined quite a bit since ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338152

In his race for the open Iowa Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has put great emphasis on Social Security. That’s good – Social Security is a crucial program for millions of Americans and the biggest domestic line item in the federal budget.

But Braley’s political focus on Social Security doesn’t ...


September 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1338090
USDA's Food and Nutrition Service yesterday released final results showing that the Healthy Incentives Pilot (HIP) had a significant positive impact on fruit and vegetable intake for low-income participants in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

In the pilot, which was conducted in Hampden County, Massachusetts, HIP participants ...


September 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1338088

The best way to expand technology use in developing countries is to boost local research and development spending, right? Nope. It’s to hand out more visas.

That’s according to a new paper by University of Colorado economics professor Keith Maskus, who argues that allowing freer movement of skilled workers across ...


September 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1338089

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Friday he’d like to the see the U.S. central bank begin to raise rates early next year, in an interview on Fox Business Network.

When it comes to making the first move to lift interest rates off of their current near ...


September 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1338087

Higher levels of student debt will reduce U.S. home sales by around 8% this year, according to a report released Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an advisory firm.

The ...


September 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1338086

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply across the U.S. over the year, but some states performed far better than others.

Among the 50 states, joblessness fell fastest in Illinois, which saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7% in August from 9.2% a year earlier.

As of August, North Dakota had the


September 19, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1338085
Senators who voted no Thursday on training and equipping Syrian rebels in the fight against Islamic State extremists had individual reasons for their vote, but some broad themes emerged.


September 19, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1338084
Here are state unemployment rate trends for closely-contested state governor and U.S. Senate races.


September 19, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1338083
A


September 19, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1338077

The median household income in the city of New York is a few hundred dollars a year more than the median household income in the state of Texas, but in practical terms the average New York City household is much worse off.The most obvious issue is the cost of housing, ...


September 19, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1338076
(September 19, 2014 01:33 PM, by Scott Sumner) Because I'm a resident of Newton, Massachusetts, I couldn't help noticing that it was recently named the Best Suburb in America for education. And it's easy to see why: That's largely because this wealthy Boston suburb has the money to... (0 COMMENTS)


September 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1338011

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Friday he’d like to the see the U.S. central bank begin to raise rates early next year , in an interview on Fox Business Network.
When it comes to making the first move to lift interest rates off of their ...


September 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1338010

The best way to expand technology use in developing countries is to boost local research and development spending, right? Nope. It’s to hand out more visas.

That’s according to a new paper by University of Colorado economics professor Keith Maskus, who argues that allowing freer movement of skilled workers across ...


September 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1338009
Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008.

The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released this morning) and the BEA supplement data on single ...


September 19, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1338008
Senators who voted no Thursday on training and equipping Syrian rebels in the fight against Islamic State extremists had individual reasons for their vote, but some broad themes emerged.


September 19, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1338007
Here are state unemployment rate trends for closely-contested state governor and U.S. Senate races.


September 19, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1338006
A


September 19, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1338005

Policy makers and researchers have long been interested in how potential changes to the personal income tax system affect the size of the overall economy. Earlier this year, for example, Representative Dave Camp (R-MI) proposed a sweeping reform to the income tax system that would reduce rates, greatly pare back ...


September 19, 2014, 12:05 pm, 1338000

September 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1337999
(September 19, 2014 09:57 AM, by Russ Roberts) I've done a lot of interviews on education at EconTalk and there's always more to learn. There were two moments that really stuck with me from this conversation with Elizabeth Green about her book, Building a Better Teacher. One is... (2 COMMENTS)


September 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1337998
(September 19, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) Anarchy in the UK? Not so much. Scottish voters have decided to stay in the UK, and Justin Wolfers calls this "a loss for pollsters and a win for betting markets." I agree: betting markets produce a much higher signal-to-noise... (0 COMMENTS)


September 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1337997
Via the Guardian comes a few words on the drought and markets for, in this case, almonds.  But similar things could be said of other crops.  The ‘subsidized’ cost of getting water to these producers is not reflected in prices, nor is the ‘ownership’ of the water  looked at in a ...


September 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1337994
The title of this article, "Surprising" MH17 Crash Update, is accurate only in the sense the average sheep believes the average mainstream media report.

Since that is the majority, the title is accurate. Mish readers, however, may find this report not surprising.

Reader Marina from Toronto explains via ...


September 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1337993

I’ve used the above chart a lot. It shows the gap between actual GDP and potential GDP. It represents trillions in missing economic growth caused by a failure of the US economy to return to its previous trend growth path.

The cost of the Two Percent Economy is staggering, ...


September 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1337992

Where are top income tax rates heading? The answer may depend on how Americans view the rich and the reasons behind high-end income inequality. Are the 1% and 0.1% and 0.01% pretty much deserving or undeserving?

Or to put it another way: If you believe — mostly — that


September 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1337991
Investment 1-Year Return Value of $1M Investment 10-Year Return Value of $1M Investment CALPER’s Hedge Fund 7.10% $1.071M 4.88% $1.6M MSCI All World Index 21.70% $1.217M 10.44% $2.7M Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 18.30% $1.183M 9.95% $2.6M Conservative Index Funds 14.50% $1.145M 8.60% $2.3M

There’s been a lot of news lately that California Public Employees’ Retirement System ...


September 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1337931

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, September 19, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Da Costa’s Take: Market Frets Over Hawkish Dots Despite Dismissive Yellen Yellen Highlights Deepening U.S. ...


September 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1337930

The Federal Reserve should sell its holdings of mortgage bonds as it tightens monetary policy, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday, so that it might move away from what he sees as the inappropriate allocation of credit to a specific sector in the economy.

Mr. Lacker, considered an inflation hawk, ...


September 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1337929

James Surowiecki:

Home Free?, by James Surowiecki: In 2005, Utah set out to fix a problem that’s often thought of as unfixable: chronic homelessness. The state had almost two thousand chronically homeless people. Most of them had mental-health or substance-abuse issues, or both. At the time, the standard approach was ...


September 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1337928

Since I posted the original, it's only fair to post the response:

The political economy of a universal basic income, by Steve Waldman, Interfluidity: So you should read these two posts by Max Sawicky on proposals for a universal basic income, because you should read everything Max Sawicky ...


September 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1337927
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in August. Twenty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate increases from July, 15 states had decreases, and 11 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor ...


September 19, 2014, 10:36 am, 1337926
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise slightly to +0.29 in Monday’s update for August, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The projection is marginally above July’s +0.25 reading, … Continue reading →


September 19, 2014, 10:35 am, 1337925

I have often accused rightists of making a "small truths, big error" rhetorical trick - of using a small truth to disguise a big mistake. I fear, though, that this post by Richard Murphy shows that the left can do the same thing.


September 19, 2014, 10:35 am, 1337924
In September 2009, Paul Krugman wrote "How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? The key points in that magazine article were:

1. Economists did not see the financial crisis coming, therefore there is something wrong with economics.
2. It's not hard to see what is wrong with economics ...


September 19, 2014, 10:34 am, 1337923
Teaser:

This ...


September 19, 2014, 10:34 am, 1337922
Teaser:

Hailo ...


September 19, 2014, 10:05 am, 1337919

Mises Daily Friday by Mark Thornton:

In this interview, Mark Thornton discusses his debate on the drug war at Oxford University and provides a view on how drug prohibition is viewed internationally.


September 19, 2014, 10:05 am, 1337918

Per Bylund recently published “Signifying Williamson’s Contribution to the Transaction Cost Approach: An Agent-Based Simulation of Coasean Transaction Costs and Specialization” the Journal of Management Studies.

Bylund writes: “It is a simulation test of Coase’s transaction cost approach using agent-based modeling, and what I do is basically show that transaction costs have no explanatory ...


September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337916
Via Alternet comes this disturbing story. Deborah Calley told WITI that she paid cash for her dream home in 2010. She had thought that it would make raising two children easier while she was recovering from the traumatic car accident. But that dream was shattered when she was notified that ...


September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337917
Now that the Fed has sent the message that nominal rates will stay at the ZLB for a considerable time after October, let’s revisit the concept of the Zombie firm. The ZLB Fed rate makes it more likely that zombie firms will continue to limp on… Zombie firms are not ...


September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337915


September 19, 2014, 9:33 am, 1337911

….is from Henry Hazlitt:

The whole gospel of Karl Marx can be summed up in a single sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are. Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has ...


September 19, 2014, 9:23 am, 1337910

Co-organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College and Economia Civile with support from the Ford Foundation

Megaron Athens International Conference Centre
Athens, Greece
November 21–22, 2014

On November 21 and 22, the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College will hold its second annual conference at the Megaron Athens ...


September 19, 2014, 9:23 am, 1337909
It was Selten’s chain store paradox that first attracted me to economics, with a heady mixture of logic, psychology and military strategy


September 19, 2014, 9:03 am, 1337848

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, September 19, 2014:

Sign up for the newsletter.

Highlights

Da Costa’s Take: Market Frets Over Hawkish Dots Despite Dismissive Yellen Yellen Highlights Deepening U.S. ...


September 19, 2014, 9:03 am, 1337847

The Federal Reserve should sell its holdings of mortgage bonds as it tightens monetary policy, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday, so that it might move away from what he sees as the inappropriate allocation of credit to a specific sector in the economy.

Mr. Lacker, considered an inflation hawk, ...


September 19, 2014, 9:03 am, 1337846
The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2014 Flow of Funds report yesterday: Flow of Funds.

According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q2 compared to Q1, and is at a new record high:

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose $1.4 trillion to $81.5 trillion ...


September 19, 2014, 8:44 am, 1337845

DO POVERTY traps exist? Academics seem to think so. According to Google Scholar, so far this year academics have used the phrase “poverty trap” 1,210 times. (Paul Samuelson, possibly the greatest economist of the 20th century, was mentioned a mere 766 times). Some of the most innovative work in development ...


September 19, 2014, 8:35 am, 1337844

Jack Lew on corporate inversions: “Action is going to be taken.” Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says that ”any company considering an inversion is now on notice that there is action that is going to be taken.” Administrative curbs would limit the economic benefits of inversions but only congressional ...


September 19, 2014, 8:04 am, 1337841
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from page 287 of the 1975 HarperPerennial printing of the third (1950) edition of Joseph Schumpeter‘s magnificent 1942 treatise, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy:

The incessant competitive struggle to get into office or to stay in it imparts to every consideration of politics and measures the bias so ...


September 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1337837
Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow

In June 2014, settlement fails of U.S. Treasury securities reached their highest level since the implementation of the Treasury fails charge in May 2009, attracting significant attention from market participants. In this post, we review what fails ...


September 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1337836
Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow

In June of this year—as we noted in the preceding post—settlement fails in U.S. Treasury securities spiked to their highest level since the implementation of the fails charge in May 2009. Our first ...


September 19, 2014, 7:23 am, 1337835
If, like me, you spent much of the spring and summer of this year being 'gently persuaded' to purchase loom bands and their paraphernalia, you may find this short presentation and task on demand and supply of the product useful.For many weeks, it seemed almost impossible to undertake a shopping ...


September 19, 2014, 7:23 am, 1337834

Readers Question I realise that at the maximum wage, (minimum wage) for labour – Qty supplied would exceed quantity demanded. Therefore, from the labour market diagram there is an obvious fall in Qty of labour, given that there would ...


September 19, 2014, 7:03 am, 1337781
Getty Images

New Zealanders go to the polls Saturday. Here are five things to know about the election and its impact on the economy.

#1: A TIGHT RACE

The ruling National Party is ahead in the polls but ...


September 19, 2014, 6:44 am, 1337779
A


September 19, 2014, 6:44 am, 1337780
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September 19, 2014, 6:36 am, 1337778
The latest economic releases look wobbly in some corners–yesterday’s report on housing starts, for example. But the monthly comparisons for several indicators, although weak, appear to be noise at this time in terms of evaluating the business cycle. Indeed, reviewing … Continue reading →


September 19, 2014, 5:33 am, 1337774

The Onion, of course.


September 19, 2014, 5:33 am, 1337772

If there's an actor or actress who you have wondered what happened to, this might be the site for you.


September 19, 2014, 5:33 am, 1337773

By Sick Individuals. (That's their name; I had nothing to do with it.)

Big room house forever!


September 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1337771

Photo Credit: Matt Cavanagh

There is a saying in the markets that volatility is not risk. In general this is true, and helps to explain why measures like beta and standard deviation of returns do not measure risk, and ...


September 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1337770

An independent Scotland would have made an interesting economics case study. How would Sterlingisation  or a Currency Union have affected the Scottish economy? Now we may ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337728
Getty Images

New Zealanders go to the polls Saturday. Here are five things to know about the election and its impact on the economy.

#1: A TIGHT RACE

The ruling National Party is ahead in the polls but ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337727

Are you an environmentally-minded person who enjoys cold beer, but feels guilty about using all that electricity to keep beer cool in your refrigerator? Wouldn't you be better off if you could keep your beer cold without drawing any power from the grid at all? ...


September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337726

September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337725

Don't pay any attention to "the prophets of climate despair":

Errors and Emissions, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: This just in: Saving the planet would be cheap; it might even be free. But will anyone believe the good news?

I’ve just been reading two new reports on the economics ...


September 19, 2014, 4:05 am, 1337724

The Obama administration on Thursday announced measures to tackle the growing threat of antibiotic resistance, outlining a national strategy that includes incentives to spur the development of new drugs, tighter stewardship of existing ones and a national tracking system for antibiotic-resistant illness. The actions are part of the first major ...


September 19, 2014, 3:23 am, 1337722
Sitting watching Alex Salmond acknowledge the results of the Scottish referendum, there is a great example of the speed with which the foreign exchange markets respond to news. Sterling fell significantly in value over the last two weeks, with polls suggesting that the 'Yes' campaign was much closer to a ...


September 19, 2014, 2:05 am, 1337688

I’ve refrained from comments on the Scottish referendum on independence. Let people decide their own path is a reasonable stance to take, so let the Scots decide the future of Scotland.

Yet in discussion with one of my past students yesterday, the question arose “should other citizens of the United Kingdom ...


September 19, 2014, 2:05 am, 1337687

Breath control is the essential skill for success in kabaddi, a game with ancient roots in which teams take turns sending a raider across midcourt who, on a single breath, tries to tag a member of the opposing team and return safely to his team’s half of the court before ...


September 19, 2014, 2:04 am, 1337686
(September 19, 2014 12:50 AM, by Bryan Caplan) If a business rents land, any accountant will count the rent as a cost of doing business. If a business borrows to buy land, any accountant will count the interest payments as a cost of doing business. What happens, though,... (0 COMMENTS)


September 19, 2014, 1:33 am, 1337685
With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.

With 26 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the ...


September 19, 2014, 12:34 am, 1337661

In this interview, Mark Thornton discusses his debate on the drug war at Oxford University and provides a view on how drug prohibition is viewed internationally.