Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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August 28, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535694
(August 28, 2015 09:43 AM, by Scott Sumner) I've always had a visceral distaste for dividing people up into victims and villains. Thus I wasn't happy to see this analogy by Bryan Caplan (when talking about the Ashley Madison affair.) Constructing hypotheticals with blameworthy pseudo-victims is easy enough.... (0 COMMENTS)


August 28, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535693
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 116-117 of Gerry O’Driscoll’s insightful 1977 essay, reprinted in Louis M. Spadaro, ed., New Directions ...


August 28, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535692
(Don Boudreaux)

Duke University economics professor Ed Tower sent to me this morning the following ...


August 28, 2015, 9:23 am, 1535690
‘If savvy consumers can help predict a product’s success, might there not be consumers whose clammy embrace spells its death?’


August 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1535628
Inflation has been close to zero in South Korea. JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Traditionally, a distinguishing characteristic of an emerging market was the behavior of its currency. In rich ...


August 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1535627
New townhouses in Watford City, N.D., in 2013, were built during the fracking boom. Now the question is: How will the oil-price drop affect home values? ANDREW ...


August 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1535626
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July:

Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.4 billion, or 0.3 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove ...


August 28, 2015, 8:44 am, 1535625
This week offered several signs that beneath the wild swings in the stock market, the economy is far from tipping toward recession.


August 28, 2015, 8:44 am, 1535624
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August 28, 2015, 8:44 am, 1535623
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August 28, 2015, 8:34 am, 1535622
Treasury yields held on to their modest rebound this week through Thursday’s close, ahead of the Federal Reserve annual conference that begins today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. No doubt the discussions will center on whether the central bank will begin raising interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. Earlier ...


August 28, 2015, 8:34 am, 1535621
Teaser:

What ...


August 28, 2015, 8:04 am, 1535620


August 28, 2015, 8:04 am, 1535619

Malcolm Gladwell’s latest New Yorker piece considers the Hurricane Katrina victims who left New Orleans and what their experiences can teach us about poverty. The reasons people remain stuck in poverty are complex, interconnected, and range from the environmental to the systemic to the personal. Gladwell’s interest in Katrina victims ...


August 28, 2015, 7:33 am, 1535615

Made me laugh. (Not for easily offended non-Americans.)


August 28, 2015, 7:33 am, 1535613
Amy Farber

Have you seen these people? You might come upon them wearing historic period garb. The Society for Creative Anachronism (SCA), founded in 1966, is, according to its website, “an international organization dedicated to researching and re-creating the arts and ...


August 28, 2015, 7:33 am, 1535614
Rod Garratt and Rosa Hayes



In a previous post, we discussed bitcoin miners’ incentives to undertake a 51 percent attack given the current condition of the bitcoin ...


August 28, 2015, 6:34 am, 1535573
● US GDP growth revised sharply higher to 3.2% for Q2 ● US jobless claims fall 6,000, close to multi-decade low ● US pending home sales edge up in July–up 7.4% from year-earlier level ● US consumer comfort index jumps to 5-week high ● Eurozone economic sentiment ticks higher in ...


August 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1535571

August 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1535570

Especially useful if you feel that some of the music of decades ago is better than the great majority of today's music.

Samples:

Crosby, Stills, & Nash, "Change Partners," Winterland, 10-7-73.

Van Morrison and The Band, "Caravan," Winterland, 11-25-76.

Aretha, "Bridge Over Troubled Water," Fillmore West, ...


August 28, 2015, 5:33 am, 1535569



(p. 4A) DENVER (AP) -- Income inequality is all the rage in public debate nowadays. Political figures from Sen. Elizabeth Warren on the left to Republican presidential prospect Jeb Bush on the right are denouncing the widening gap between the wealthy and everyone else.

But ordinary ...


August 28, 2015, 5:03 am, 1535542

Three weeks ago, we featured the work of the young Australian behind the Primitive Technology blog, who built a stone adze from scratch in the wild, which he then proceeded to use to build a primitive, yet effective and durable shelter from ...


August 28, 2015, 4:44 am, 1535541

Since the onset of the Global Crisis, a number of central bank reforms have been implemented. This column suggests that since the Crisis, a silent restoration towards lower central bank independence might have been in place. The trend is more pronounced in non-OECD countries and, in particular, for the level ...


August 28, 2015, 4:44 am, 1535540

Economic models suggest that competition will prevent those subjected to discrimination from being affected adversely. This column uses an unusual case study of sex workers in Singapore to reveal that having many actors on both sides of the market does not, in fact, eliminate discrimination. Policy intervention remains the best ...


August 28, 2015, 4:44 am, 1535539
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August 28, 2015, 4:05 am, 1535538

I very much enjoyed this Live Chat, and I thank the participants for all of their stimulating questions and remarks.  Here is one excerpt:

Ben Casnocha:

How do you think your career and life would have been different if blogging, twitter, and digital media had be ubiquitous in your teens and 20’s? ...


August 28, 2015, 3:33 am, 1535535
Economic Forecasts

Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars.

In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August.

In response, ...


August 28, 2015, 3:03 am, 1535506

August 28, 2015, 3:03 am, 1535504

In the WSJ, Marco Rubio says Obama hasn't been tough enough with China on economic issues:

President Obama has continued to appease China’s leaders ...[with] his insufficient responses to economic ... concerns

What would he do?

For years, China has subsidized exports, devalued its currency, restricted imports and stolen technology on ...


August 28, 2015, 3:03 am, 1535505

Tim Duy:

This September meeting is the gift that keeps on giving. Right now it is giving by the shear quantity of truly bad commentary arguing for a rate hike next month.

Let's back up a few weeks. Prior to the recent market rout, September looked like a pretty good bet. And ...


August 28, 2015, 2:44 am, 1535503
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August 28, 2015, 2:04 am, 1535502

1. William Skidelsky, Federer and Me: A Story of Obsession.  An excellent short book on how tennis has changed through technology, the nature of excellence in human performance, and why fans are interested in sports and sports stars at all.  There is no great tennis stagnation.

2. Bill Hayton, ...


August 28, 2015, 1:23 am, 1535500

Photo Credit: edkohler || Buy Now and smile!

One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital?  I’ll try to answer that here.

There are ...


August 27, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1535442

August 27, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1535441
A couple of excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note, first on the possibility of a September rate hike, and second their forecast for August NFP:

Markets are now pricing a fairly slim chance that the Fed will hike in September, taking to heart the remarks by New ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1535437

Pay close attention to the 500+ stocks in China that are still frozen. Earlier it was reported virtually all these firms borrowed money with pledged stock near the peak of the market in May and June.  If these reports are true, it is likely that given the length of time ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1535436
(August 28, 2015 12:05 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Jonathan Ichikawa joins Jason Brennan in the philosophical symposium on the Ashley Madison hack. He begins innocuously:Here is a sadly familiar story: a teenage girl sneaks out of her parents' house, goes to a party, and gets drunk. A man... (3 COMMENTS)


August 27, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1535435
Disputes over GDP go on and on and on. MarketWatch reports By another measure, the U.S. economy was ho-hum in second quarter.

There are two ways to compute how well the economy is doing.

One is to tally all the goods and services produced during ...


August 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1535418
Here are five things to watch at the central bankers' gathering, which runs Thursday night through Saturday.


August 27, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1535415
Recently a very old debate among macroeconomists has been reopened (this happens from time to time). Paul Romer decided to discuss a key conference held in 1978 (yes really). Some (including me) think that’s about when the profession took a wrong turn largely following Robert Lucas. But in the discussion ...


August 27, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1535414
For a finite price, I tried to sell Thomas Piketty but I can't find a buyer. Economists of the world sign up for REPEC Fantasy Economics.


August 27, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1535352
The Mortgage Bankers Association released a new report this week: Demographics and the Numbers Behind the Coming Multi-Million increase in Households by Lynn Fisher and Jamie Woodwell.

The report has some great section titles such as "Demographics is Destiny" and "35 is the new 25". These are ...


August 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1535351
President Barack Obama said Thursday that the U.S. economy "has been moving and continues to grow."


August 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1535350
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August 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1535349
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August 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1535346
(Don Boudreaux)

Here’s a letter to a Trumpkin:

Mr. Sam Craig

Mr. Craig:

I’m sorry that my “Notable & Quotable” in Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal ...


August 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1535345

1. Venn Diagram of the Day (above). Does a $15 an hour minimum wage have negative employment effects of not? See related CD post from earlier today here.

2. Index Card with All the Financial ...


August 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1535344

In contrast to its tepid economic reform program, the 15-month-old Narendra Modi government has generally earned high marks for foreign policy. It has boosted ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia, brought India’s special relationship with Israel out of the closet, and actively courted neighbors such as Sri Lanka ...


August 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1535341
In the wake of a stronger than expected GDP report (see Second Quarter GDP Revised Up, as Expected, Led by Autos, Housing), some are questioning the stated growth.

For example, the Consumer Metrics Institute says "On the surface this report shows solid economic growth for ...


August 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1535340

1. Venn Diagram of the Day (above). Does a $15 an hour minimum wage have negative employment effects of not? See related CD post from earlier today here.

2. Index Card with All the Financial ...


August 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1535277
(Don Boudreaux)

For our friends in Ghana: a Liberty and Entrepreneurship Camp.  The entrepreneur behind this effort, Afrikanus Kofi Akosah, is ...


August 27, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1535276

Note: This post and its links contain graphic descriptions, images or footage. Discretion is advised.  

It has been widely reported how the Islamic State is abusing young girls, including Christians and Yazidis, in territory it captures, turning them into sex slaves for Islamic fighters.

Less well known is its treatment of young boys. ...


August 27, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1535271
USC's fall semester has just started and I have already taught for 4 hours, met with students and colleagues, attended lunches, seminars and cracked jokes and tried to teach the power of price theory applied to environmental and urban topics. My undergraduate class has an enrollment of 24 students ...


August 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1535210

2013 was a year of many changes to the U.S. tax code, and some of the most significant changes were targeted at raising taxes on high-income Americans. The fiscal cliff tax deal created a new 39.6 percent income tax bracket, raised the top rate on capital gains to 20 percent, ...


August 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1535209
“Gross domestic product” measures production based on what is spent by consumers, businesses and governments, while “gross domestic income” measures the income generated from production. So, things like wages, ...


August 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1535208

Robert Shiller (a reason to agree with Tim Duy):

Rising Anxiety That Stocks Are Overpriced: Over the five trading days between Aug. 17 and Aug. 24, the U.S. stock market dropped 10 percent — the official definition of a “correction,” with similar or greater drops in ...


August 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1535207
The BLS reported this last week:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) decreased 0.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 233.806 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index was essentially unchanged prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is ...


August 27, 2015, 2:45 pm, 1535206
Robert Litan: Akerlof and Shiller write that markets on and off the Internet are full of phishing behavior and that tricksters are not just one-off crooks but will remain part of capitalist economies.


August 27, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1535205
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August 27, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1535202
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August 27, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1535204
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August 27, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1535203
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August 27, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1535201

The first revision of Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter showed the economy growing at a far better pace than initially believed:

The economy grew much more quickly last quarter than initially thought as businesses and ...


August 27, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1535200
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August 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1535199

This is from a recent working paper (pdf) by Miguel Morin:

When the adoption of a new labor-saving technology increases labor productivity, it is an open question whether the economy adjusts in the medium-term by decreasing employment or in>creasing output. This paper studies the effects of cheaper ...


August 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1535198
(Don Boudreaux)

Although a bit dated in some of its institutional details, I share here a paper that Bob Ekelund and I published in ...


August 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1535197

I’m a critic of many aspects of the polling business these days. To take just one of my pet peeves, dozens of questions are being asked about which presidential candidate will win in 2016, although we know that polls have little predictive value at this early stage of the campaign. ...


August 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1535196

Editor’s Note: This article is part of a ChinaFile Conversation on the fall of China’s stock market. The full conversation can be found here

On Monday, August 24, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 8.5 percent, its second such steep fall since late July, and its worst since 2007. ...


August 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1535193
Economists had been expecting today's second quarter GDP estimate to rise from initial readings, based largely on auto sales and housing, and they were correct.

"The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the 'advance' estimate issued last ...


August 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1535192
Unlike housing and auto sectors, economic regions dependent on oil activity remain severely stressed.

For example, the Kansas City Fed regional factory report came in today at -9, compared to an Economic Consensus of -4.

Factory activity in the Kansas City Fed's region remains in deep ...


August 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1535191

…. is from Thomas Sowell’s May 16, 2007 column:

If you start from a belief that the most knowledgeable person on earth does not have even one percent of the total knowledge on earth, that shoots down social engineering, economic central planning, judicial activism, and innumerable other ambitious notions favored ...


August 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1535130
Young Invincibles ranks physician assistant as a top job for new college graduates. JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES

If you’re trying to find a career path that might actually ...


August 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1535129

Simon Wren-Lewis:

The day macroeconomics changed: It is of course ludicrous, but who cares. The day of the Boston Fed conference in 1978 is fast taking on a symbolic significance. It is the day that Lucas and Sargent changed how macroeconomics was done. Or, if you are Paul Romer, ...


August 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1535128

Are you as convinced as Tim is that rate hikes are off the table at the Fed's next meeting?:

Q2 GDP Revised up to 3.7%, by Bill McBride, Calculated Risk: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the ...


August 27, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1535123
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August 27, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1535126
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August 27, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1535127
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August 27, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1535125
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August 27, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1535124
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August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535119

1. Why do so many new restaurant names sound the same?

2. Why do papers with shorter titles get more citations?  The paper on that is here, six words in the title (“The advantage of short paper titles.”)

3. Worries about Greece, still nascent ...


August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535118
(August 27, 2015 11:12 AM, by Scott Sumner) I agree with David Henderson's new post, which starts off with this Bob Murphy quote on the recent stock market decline: As shocking as these developments [drops in stock prices and increased volatility] may be to some analysts, those versed... (1 COMMENTS)


August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535117

Despite a challenging market, the U.S. oil and gas industry is hanging tough. But our government’s inability to craft a sensible energy policy is at best handcuffing our producers and at worst threatening to reverse the gains of America’s shale revolution.


August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535116

Stock market volatility and currency devaluation have caused the international community to take note of the state of the Chinese economy. AEI scholars weigh in on the recent run on the Chinese stock market, its causes and its implications for the US and global economy.

AEI economist Derek Scissors has been ...


August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535115

Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have all recently passed $15 an hour minimum wage laws government mandated price floors that guarantee reduced employment opportunities for low skilled and limited-experience workers, especially minorities. But those $15 an hour wage mandates are getting gradually phased in over time. Depending on the size ...


August 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1535114

Ten years ago this Saturday, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans, breaking levees and devastating the city. A million residents were displaced and the school system was shuttered. In the decade since the largest natural disaster in US history, New Orleans has made a comeback, and perhaps its most ...


August 27, 2015, 11:33 am, 1535112

Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have all recently passed $15 an hour minimum wage laws government mandated price floors that guarantee reduced employment opportunities for low skilled and limited-experience workers, especially minorities. But those $15 an hour wage mandates are getting gradually phased in over time. Depending on the size ...


August 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1535051
“The U.S. economic recovery shifted up a few gears in second quarter,” said Millan Mulraine of T.D. Securities. JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES

U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest sum ...


August 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1535050
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Inch Forward in July

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, marginally increased 0.5 percent to 110.9 in July from an upwardly revised 110.4 in June and is now 7.4 percent above July 2014 (103.3). The index has ...


August 27, 2015, 10:44 am, 1535049
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August 27, 2015, 10:44 am, 1535048
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August 27, 2015, 10:36 am, 1535047
This morning’s macro updates reaffirm the case for cautious optimism on the outlook for the US economy. The revised second-quarter GDP data show that growth was substantially stronger during the April-through-June period: 3.7% vs. the initial 2.3% estimate (seasonally adjusted annual rate). In addition, today’s weekly report on initial jobless ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535040
(Don Boudreaux)

After 20 years of being housed in Enterprise Hall on George Mason’s Fairfax campus, GMU’s Department of Economics ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535039

August 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535036

Whether to continue automatically conferring U.S. citizenship to the children born in this country to unauthorized immigrants suddenly emerged as a dividing line among Republican presidential candidates last week. In all the controversy over Donald Trump’s latest flaming salvo, there has been virtually no discussion of the economic reasons for ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535038

How should policy makers react to the turmoil in the stock market and anxiety about the global economy felt on Wall Street and Main Street? My answer: Don’t panic. Policy makers should be crafting and presidential candidates should be debating longer-term policies to foster real economic growth without being ...


August 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1535037

Recently PolitiFact published a piece criticizing presidential candidates who — in arguing that the Navy is too small — make historical comparisons to the size of the Navy in the past.

The Washington Post has weighed in from time to time with similar criticisms of similar statements by other ...


August 27, 2015, 9:33 am, 1535031

I remember going to the Flames games growing up in Tucker, GA in the early 1970s (and playing street hockey!):

The Calgary Flames’ plan for a new $890 million arena/stadium complex would require the public to pay $690 million of it, and that doesn’t include the potential $300 million ...


August 27, 2015, 9:33 am, 1535030

John Clay:

In his basketball notebook a couple of weeks back, Jerry Tipton wrote about the issue of schools selling jerseys with numbers that often correlate to the most recognizable players on the team. The players themselves receive no money from the sales. The story included UK AD Mitch Barnhart ...


August 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1534968
Fashion designer Lynette Tyner turned to nonprofit micro-financing instead of a traditional bank loan several years ago to expand her small business. Community-lending advocates say better data would encourage traditional ...


August 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1534967
The U.S. economy grew at a much faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter, with new data showing upward revisions to business investment, inventory building and government spending.


August 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1534966
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual ...


August 27, 2015, 8:44 am, 1534964
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August 27, 2015, 8:44 am, 1534965
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August 27, 2015, 8:44 am, 1534963
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August 27, 2015, 8:34 am, 1534962
The only thing worse than crumbling stock prices is a market slide that’s accompanied by a contracting economy. The US has witnessed the former recently, but it’s not obvious that the macro trend is fatally wounded. The outlook for growth remains moderate for the world’s largest economy, which is to ...


August 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1534958

Liu, the bankrupt scrap dealer, said abandoning Beijing was her family’s only option. “It’s natural. We came here for work. We lost 200,000 yuan. We can’t afford to live here any more,” she said.

“Maybe one day we’ll return – but I don’t know when.”

That’s anecdotal of course, but it does ...


August 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1534957
(Don Boudreaux)

… is from pages 181-182 of F.A. Hayek’s 1938 essay “Freedom and the Economic System,” which is reprinted as chapter ...


August 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1534954

Great. But as Fark might comment, "Still no cure for cancer."


August 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1534953

I'll give them this: these questions are a lot harder than I remember my third grade math being.


August 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1534951

Rock on, 96th Street Elementary.

Nobody takes offense, everybody pitches in. It's a radical concept in a school district where the teachers union, United Teachers Los Angeles, has fought the district for years over teacher evaluations, and where ineffective teachers are allowed to continue using the same ...


August 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1534952

Funny.

Not to worry, though, because the Democrats are “accepting suggestions for a new name” for their fund-raising dinners.

By these standards, one wonders who else among the party’s historical luminaries could possibly make the cut. Let’s consider the options.

Similar, and also funny: "A ...


August 27, 2015, 7:33 am, 1534950
Anna Snider


August 27, 2015, 7:23 am, 1534949

Photo Credit: edkohler || Buy Now and smile!

One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital?  I’ll try to answer that here.

There are ...


August 27, 2015, 7:23 am, 1534948
First, peg the Chinese yuan to another currency that has been rapidly appreciating over the past year...



...this will choke ...


August 27, 2015, 6:34 am, 1534890
● A solid gain for US durable goods orders in July ● NY Fed chief says September rate hike is now “less compelling” ● US mortgage applications inched higher last week ● China’s equity market rebounds on Thursday, following Wall Street higher ● Eurozone money supply & private lending growth ...


August 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1534866

Believe it or not, August is shaping up to be the second best month for dividends in 2015.

But don't take our word for it - the proof is in our near-real time measure of the level of distress in the U.S. economy, the cumulative number ...


August 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1534865

August 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1534864

Joseph Tracy, Robert Rich, Samuel Kapon, and Ellen Fu say "that roughly 90 percent of the labor gap that opened up following the recession has been closed":

Mind the Gap: Assessing Labor Market Slack, Liberty Street Economics, NY Fed: Indicators of labor market slack enable economists to judge pressures on ...


August 27, 2015, 4:44 am, 1534863
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August 27, 2015, 3:33 am, 1534860
Reason TV had an excellent interview with Jim Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer on the recent stock market turmoil. Grant says The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors'.

“Confoundingly to me, people have come to be quite accepting of the value ...


August 27, 2015, 2:44 am, 1534823

‘Learning by exporting’ refers to productivity gains experienced by firms after they commence exporting. Such gains are argued to be due to access to new knowledge and resources. This column explores some of the preconditions for learning-by-exporting effects, using data on the overseas activities and affiliations of Japanese firms. Firms ...


August 27, 2015, 2:44 am, 1534822

The export-less depreciation of the yen has opened a debate on the power of exchange rates to boost exports. This column presents new evidence on how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries, and how global value chains have affected it. The upshot is ...


August 27, 2015, 2:44 am, 1534821
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August 27, 2015, 2:04 am, 1534820

This book already has done a good deal to raise the status of autistic people and also studies of autism.  Silberman is to be commended for extensive research into the lives of Hans Asperger and Leo Kanner and into the modern “neurodiversity” movement more broadly.  He ...


August 27, 2015, 12:44 am, 1534783

When you think about "high-tech," you tend to think about your electronic devices, silicon chips, the Internet...But what about nature? How much do bears, deer, and whales owe to technology?

This week's EconTalkepisode with Jesse Ausubel is a whirlwind of food, transportation, wilderness, and more. There's a lot to think ...


August 27, 2015, 12:04 am, 1534781

Full text of my op-ed in Thursday’s Investor Business Daily:

Despite a challenging market, the U.S. oil and gas industry is hanging tough. But our government’s inability to craft a sensible energy policy is at best handcuffing our producers and at worst threatening to reverse the gains of America’s shale revolution.

The ...