Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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About Economics (Mike Moffatt)

April 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1258374

One topic that is getting a lot of attention both in economics and in politics is the "profitability" of labor versus capital (i.e. financial assets invested and earning a return). The reason for this concern is that, logistically, most people are endowed with the ability to work (and therefore ...

April 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1258373

Job creators, directly, at least, are obviously those entrepreneurs and business owners that hire workers. Economist Jared Bernstein, however, argues that, in an important indirect sense, consumers and investors are the job creators, since their actions give businesses the incentives to expand output and hire workers.

This works in ...

April 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1258372

The John Bates Clark Medal, awarded by the American Economic Association to who they feel is the most promising economist under the age of 40, is often referred to as the "baby Nobel" due to its high correlation with future Nobel Prize awards. This year's medal goes to ...

April 14, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1255399
In case you haven't heard, Michael Lewis has a new book out entitled Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt that gives a fascinating narrative inside the world of high-frequency trading. As expected, the book has reignited discussions about the social value (or cost) of high-frequency trading. This ...

April 14, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1255400

If you read this site regularly, you likely know that jobs numbers are posted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics each month. While those numbers are a useful snapshot, it's also important to look at longer term trends in order to understand the overall employment picture. Economist Jared ...

April 14, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1255398
The differential in compensation for men and for women in the U.S. is getting a lot of attention right now, largely due to the fact that President Obama has made gender pay equality a priority and issued two executive orders aimed at bringing gender wage parity to government employees. ...

April 14, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1255397
In econ 101, we are taught that a minimum wage is a price floor on labor, and, as such, a binding minimum wage will increase unemployment and decrease employment. It's important to note, however, that in econ 101 we assume that both the labor market and the market for ...

April 7, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1251920
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report on Friday. The good news is mainly in the fact that 192,000 jobs were added in March, which means that the total number of jobs in the U.S. is officially above where it was in January 2008, before ...

April 7, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1251918
Former Treasury Secretary, former Harvard University President, and former Obama economist Larry Summers has some views on the dynamics of business cycles. His talk is part of a larger panel on full employment put together by the Center on Budget, and there is commentary from a few other ...

April 7, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1251919
The (favorable) March jobs report has gotten some people wondering about what the Federal Reserve is going to do in terms of its future course of monetary policy- does the economy seem like it still needs help or is it healthy enough to continue tapering the current asset purchase program? ...