January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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About Economics (Mike Moffatt)
One topic that is getting a lot of attention both in economics and in politics is the "profitability" of labor versus capital (i.e. financial assets invested and earning a return). The reason for this concern is that, logistically, most people are endowed with the ability to work (and therefore ...
Job creators, directly, at least, are obviously those entrepreneurs and business owners that hire workers. Economist Jared Bernstein, however, argues that, in an important indirect sense, consumers and investors are the job creators, since their actions give businesses the incentives to expand output and hire workers.
This works in ...
The John Bates Clark Medal, awarded by the American Economic Association to who they feel is the most promising economist under the age of 40, is often referred to as the "baby Nobel" due to its high correlation with future Nobel Prize awards. This year's medal goes to ...
If you read this site regularly, you likely know that jobs numbers are posted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics each month. While those numbers are a useful snapshot, it's also important to look at longer term trends in order to understand the overall employment picture. Economist Jared ...