Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


November 23, 2014, 6:04 am, 1376427
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Cassandras are out in force, from the prime minister down, predicting doom and gloom for the world economy and by extension a knock-on effect for...


November 16, 2014, 4:04 am, 1372285
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation report has attracted a lot of comment, mainly because it confirmed the Bank’s “lower for longer” view on interest...


November 12, 2014, 8:04 am, 1369699
The Bank of England has taken a slightly more downbeat view of growth and a very downbeat growth of inflation over the next few months, with Mark Carney, the governor, warning that consumer price inflation could drop below 1%. If...


November 9, 2014, 6:04 am, 1367572
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Is Britain a good place to do business? It is, in the end, the most fundamental question for the economy. If not, then we are condemned...


November 2, 2014, 6:04 am, 1362472
At its meeting of Tuesday 14th October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended that Bank Rate should be raised by ¼% on Thursday 6th November. Those urging a rate increase took the view that...


October 25, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1357715
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How worried should we be about the eurozone? Is the single currency area, the weakest link in the global economic chain since the crisis, about to...


October 19, 2014, 4:04 am, 1353598
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...


October 12, 2014, 10:04 am, 1349782
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How do we build the infrastructure the economy is crying out for and the new housing a growing population sorely needs? Through the haze of the...


October 5, 2014, 4:04 am, 1346170
In its email poll closing Friday 3rd October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on October 9th, including five votes for a rise...


October 5, 2014, 4:04 am, 1346169
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We have had the two main party conferences and the big revisions to Britain’s economic numbers. We now know the economy’s pre-crisis peak was exceeded in...