Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794440
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The traditional task of a chancellor at budget time is to take on the role of conjuror by pulling rabbits out of what appears to be...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794441
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Something, it seems, is stirring on pay. After years in the doldrums, and with pay growth apparently stuck at 2% when inflation is 3%, two surveys...


November 5, 2017, 3:35 am, 1792347
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. So it happened. The Bank of England was not crying wolf this time and this time the boyfriend was not unreliable. There has been a wailing...


October 29, 2017, 5:04 am, 1788975
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Small numbers can make a big difference. Had the third quarter gross domestic product figures come in at 0.3% a few days ago, this column would...


October 22, 2017, 3:43 am, 1785882
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) attracted headlines this week by saying that leaving the European Union will damage the economy and stifle growth...


October 15, 2017, 4:05 am, 1783455
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The biggest UK economic news this week came from an unusual source. When the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), reviews its own forecasts, as it does...


October 8, 2017, 3:43 am, 1783224
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Give Us a Clue was a popular TV show featuring the entertainer Lionel Blair. It was also what Tony Blair, no relation I think, was reported...


October 1, 2017, 4:04 am, 1781293
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This is the way economies descend into chaos and failure. A weak and divided government, out of energy and ideas, capitulates to the most left-wing Labour...


September 24, 2017, 3:44 am, 1778800
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It would have been easy this week to focus on the latest projections from the Organisation for Co-operation and Development (OECD), which are for a slowing...


September 17, 2017, 3:44 am, 1776380
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A Rip Van Winkle who went to sleep 20 years ago and woke up around midday last Thursday, when the Bank of England made its latest...