Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


April 22, 2018, 3:25 am, 1844036
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. I return at a time of good news about the world economy. Despite worries about rising trade tensions, and a slight softening of economic activity surveys...


March 25, 2018, 4:05 am, 1835653
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is reassuring, for those of us who write about economics, when things happen the way that economic theory says they should. When unemployment is low,...


March 18, 2018, 5:24 am, 1833758
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. One of the biggest challenges for people like me is writing about budgets. Though in recent years they have been held on Wednesdays at 12.30, just...


March 11, 2018, 4:24 am, 1831217
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. If I were to allow a robot to take over the writing of this column, something I am gradually working towards, it would take previous known...


March 4, 2018, 4:05 am, 1828177
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. If we’re happy and we know it we should probably clap our hands, as I think I remember singing many years ago. And, however you may...


February 25, 2018, 4:05 am, 1825129
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Amid the flurry of economic news in recent days, one number stood out. This was that, after a strong rise in productivity in the third quarter...


February 18, 2018, 4:05 am, 1822174
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. As impressive recoveries go, it is up there with Jesus raising Lazarus from the dead, four days after he had apparently shuffled off this mortal coil....


February 11, 2018, 3:04 am, 1819050
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The economic story of the week was the Bank of England’s “hawkish” signal that interest rates could rise “somewhat earlier and to a somewhat greater extent”...


February 4, 2018, 3:44 am, 1815961
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There are large parts of the economy in which it is relatively easy to work out what is going on. The housing market, it is fair...


January 28, 2018, 3:44 am, 1813212
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. If it is winter, there must be a National Health Service crisis, and indeed there is. There was one last year, which was described by the...