Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


October 25, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1357715
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How worried should we be about the eurozone? Is the single currency area, the weakest link in the global economic chain since the crisis, about to...


October 19, 2014, 4:04 am, 1353598
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even before the stock market had an attack of the vapours, other factors — a sharp fall in Britain’s inflation rate, renewed weakness in the eurozone,...


October 12, 2014, 10:04 am, 1349782
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How do we build the infrastructure the economy is crying out for and the new housing a growing population sorely needs? Through the haze of the...


October 5, 2014, 4:04 am, 1346170
In its email poll closing Friday 3rd October, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on October 9th, including five votes for a rise...


October 5, 2014, 4:04 am, 1346169
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We have had the two main party conferences and the big revisions to Britain’s economic numbers. We now know the economy’s pre-crisis peak was exceeded in...


September 27, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1342362
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Maybe Ed Miliband should have talked about the budget deficit, and not just for the obvious reasons. Had the Labour leader done so he could have...


September 20, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1338535
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. After all the excitement - and for me the right result - time to return to some normal but rather interesting fare. While we have been...


September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335860
The Scottish referendum campaign has engaged people in politics as never before, it is said, and this is a welcome and different kind of politics. It is, of course, welcome that voters in Scotland are engaged and mainly intend to...


September 14, 2014, 6:04 am, 1334547
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. With days to go, it it is still not clear whether Scotland will avoid the economic car-crash that would follow independence. It could still, as Deutsche...


September 7, 2014, 6:04 am, 1330599
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In 11 days, voters in Scotland will decide on whether their country should go it alone. The latest Sunday-Times YouGov poll shows a two-point lead for...