Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


July 20, 2014, 6:04 am, 1303629
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This will not be my last look at Scottish independence between now and the September 18 referendum but it will keep us going for now. I...


July 12, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1300154
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Official figures a few days ago for industrial production in Britain produced a surprise. And, for once, it was not a pleasant one. Overall industrial output...


July 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1297052
In its email poll closing Wednesday 2nd July, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by eight votes to one that Bank Rate should be raised on July 10th, including five votes for a rise...


July 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1297051
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Inequality is always with us and it never loses its power to provoke debate. This year, of course, we have had a bestselling book on it,...


June 28, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1292743
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain’s economy is expanding at a healthy rate. This month, for the first time, the average growth prediction for 2014 has hit 3% among the independent...


June 21, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1289544
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England has got itself into a terrible tangle over interest rates, which is threatening to make it look rather foolish. The big question...


June 14, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1286397
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Gross domestic product, which came into being in Britain just before the D-Day landings we were commemorating earlier this month, is about to undergo one of...


June 13, 2014, 4:04 am, 1285781
It may be that Mark Carney simply likes drawing attention to himself, in which case last night's Mansion House speech was a success. His was not the first hint that rates could rise sooner rather than later - the May...


June 7, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1283155
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even by the standards of Britain’s housing market, the announcement a few days ago of a 3.9% May increase in house prices was a humdinger. The...


May 31, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1280002
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. During the worst of the global financial crisis, people were fond of quoting Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India’s planning commission. In his phrase: “Confidence...