Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


April 26, 2015, 8:04 am, 1462005
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It was a big week for the public finances, both where we have been and where we might be going. We can now make a judgment...


April 19, 2015, 6:04 am, 1457861
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. I would not want anybody to think a theme is developing here but, having warned last week that we should take economists’ views on austerity with...


April 12, 2015, 6:04 am, 1453982
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Should you listen to economists during this election campaign? I say that in the full knowledge that it may encourage some to stop reading now, and...


April 5, 2015, 4:04 am, 1450711
Continuing its recent trend, the Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold in April. There was a variety of reasons offered for holding. Some members felt the economy remained weak. Others felt that the economy was going well...


April 5, 2015, 4:04 am, 1450710
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A landmark has been passed, and sooner than expected. Living standards, measured in the conventional way, are higher than they were than the coalition took office,...


March 29, 2015, 6:04 am, 1447170
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A big fat zero. No inflation at all. Though it is not guaranteed, a run of deflation – prices lower than a year earlier – seems...


March 22, 2015, 6:04 am, 1443348
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This is a strange world, and we have just had a rather strange budget. There was some jam today, though it was spread pretty thinly. There...


March 18, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1441434
George Osborne stuck to his "no giveaways" pledge in the final Budget before the election - there is actually a modest fiscal tightening of £745m for 2015-16. That did not stop him sprinkling a few crowd pleasers through his Budget,...


March 15, 2015, 6:04 am, 1439490
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. George Osborne’s sixth budget may not go down as his most memorable – the expectation is that it will be a political rather than an economic...


March 8, 2015, 5:04 am, 1435516
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The feelgood factor is often elusive. But it is back. Consumer confidence is riding high, wages are once more outstripping inflation and unemployment continues to fall....