Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


March 22, 2015, 6:04 am, 1443348
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This is a strange world, and we have just had a rather strange budget. There was some jam today, though it was spread pretty thinly. There...


March 18, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1441434
George Osborne stuck to his "no giveaways" pledge in the final Budget before the election - there is actually a modest fiscal tightening of £745m for 2015-16. That did not stop him sprinkling a few crowd pleasers through his Budget,...


March 15, 2015, 6:04 am, 1439490
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. George Osborne’s sixth budget may not go down as his most memorable – the expectation is that it will be a political rather than an economic...


March 8, 2015, 5:04 am, 1435516
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The feelgood factor is often elusive. But it is back. Consumer confidence is riding high, wages are once more outstripping inflation and unemployment continues to fall....


March 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1431199
The Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold, entrenching its reversal, at the last meeting, of its long-standing call for rate rises. Those favouring a hold included members arguing that there is no inflationary pressure and/or that the...


March 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1431198
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Greece’s negotiations with its creditors have provided us all with an entertaining glimpse into the dysfunctional family that is the eurozone. So we have had Wolfgang...


February 15, 2015, 4:04 am, 1422706
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is easy to get depressed about deflation. Deflation and depression are linked in the mind for good reason. In what economic historians call the first...


February 8, 2015, 10:04 am, 1418543
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. George Osborne has, in spite of everything, a pretty good story to tell on the budget deficit. The scale of the borrowing problem the coalition inherited...


February 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1413996
In a significant reversal of its longstanding recommendation to raise rates, the Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold. It should be emphasized that the driver of this shift was not a change in the personnel voting. Instead,...


February 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1413995
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A month into the year and questions about the recovery are already being asked. Growth slowed at the end of last year, with the smallest quarterly...