Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


July 17, 2016, 4:04 am, 1654319
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. So no more George Osborne. Hello Philip Hammond. But 0.5% Bank rate, the record low rate that lasted for the whole of Osborne’s chancellorship, lives to...


July 10, 2016, 4:04 am, 1652324
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This continues to be a record-breaking time, though the records being broken are not necessarily those you would want. So, the pound’s peso-style two-day fall in...


July 3, 2016, 4:04 am, 1650494
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. What an extraordinary time it has been. During the worst of the global financial crisis I wrote that we had 10 years of big economic and...


June 26, 2016, 4:04 am, 1648529
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For many people reading this, Friday morning will have dawned as a moment of triumph, of liberation. That was not how I saw it, as you...


June 22, 2016, 8:04 am, 1647456
The moment has arrived. The biggest decision voters will take for decades is hours away. Most are unprepared for it, and with good reason. The referendum campaign has also revealed a new and unattractive type of politics in Britain....


June 19, 2016, 4:04 am, 1646565
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The moment is nearly upon us. Like the Scottish referendum in September 2014 but with even more at stake, a nerve-racking few days lie ahead. Either...


June 12, 2016, 4:04 am, 1644652
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is time to put up or shut up. Should we stay in or leave the EU? Those who have been following my pieces in recent...


June 5, 2016, 4:04 am, 1642623
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Judging by the many ideas I have had for post-referendum subjects – keep them coming – I sense that June 23 cannot come too soon for...


May 29, 2016, 4:04 am, 1640688
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The economic debate over EU membership rages on, with the heavy weaponry overwhelmingly on one side. I can only hope there will be a ceasefire on...


May 22, 2016, 4:04 am, 1638689
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A few weeks ago I came across a woman who told me that she was voting to leave the European Union because it had stopped her...