Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


December 21, 2014, 6:04 am, 1392741
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A few days ago something happened which I have not experienced for a very long time, if ever. Inflation fell to just 1% and will surely...


December 14, 2014, 4:04 am, 1388772
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Rejoice. That is my normal response to lower oil prices. Filling up the car ranks second only to paying gas and electricity bills as the kind...


December 7, 2014, 4:04 am, 1384623
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Has the world changed? We knew before Wednesday’s autumn statement that George Osborne would be forced to concede that the budget deficit remains uncomfortably close to...


December 5, 2014, 4:04 am, 1383761
In the light of the Office for Budget Responsibility's observation, endorsed by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, that the ratio of government spending to GDP is set to fall to its lowest level for 80 years - since the 1930s...


November 30, 2014, 6:04 am, 1379673
In its email poll closing Thursday 27th November, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on December 4th, including two votes for a rise...


November 30, 2014, 6:04 am, 1379672
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The autumn statement, George Osborne’s fifth and possibly final one, is on Wednesday and it is hard not to feel a sense of déjà vu. I...


November 23, 2014, 6:04 am, 1376427
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Cassandras are out in force, from the prime minister down, predicting doom and gloom for the world economy and by extension a knock-on effect for...


November 16, 2014, 4:04 am, 1372285
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation report has attracted a lot of comment, mainly because it confirmed the Bank’s “lower for longer” view on interest...


November 12, 2014, 8:04 am, 1369699
The Bank of England has taken a slightly more downbeat view of growth and a very downbeat growth of inflation over the next few months, with Mark Carney, the governor, warning that consumer price inflation could drop below 1%. If...


November 9, 2014, 6:04 am, 1367572
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Is Britain a good place to do business? It is, in the end, the most fundamental question for the economy. If not, then we are condemned...