Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


July 25, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1515712
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes I think that when George Osborne looks in the mirror each morning, he thinks: “Now how can I put the wind up the Labour party...


July 19, 2015, 6:04 am, 1511744
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Things are getting rather interesting. In the past few days we have had what looks like a concerted attempt by the Bank of England to prepare...


July 18, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1511516
My remarks on being awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Nottingham, at a ceremony on Friday July 17. Vice Chancellor, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, parents, family members, academic staff and fellow graduands. If I’ve missed anybody out,...


July 18, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1511515
My new book, Something Will Turn Up, is about Britain's economy over recent decades, and into the future. This excerpt gives a flavour of where it and I started, in the industrial heartlands of the West Midlands. I was born...


July 15, 2015, 10:04 am, 1509602
My new book, Something Will Turn Up, is published on Thursday July 16. More about it here soon but, in the meantime, here is the descrption from by publisher, Profile: Overcoming economic decline, inflation and mass unemployment have challenged...


July 12, 2015, 4:04 am, 1507541
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Five days on from any budget is always a bit of a challenge, particularly one that has been picked over more intensely than most. Fortunately there...


July 8, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1505655
For a long time during George Osborne's seventh budget it was quite hard to detect a unifying theme, or even a set of themes. As the first Tory-only budget for nearly two decades, and the first of the new parliament,...


July 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1503806
From The Sunday Times, July 5 2015 At the start of this year, things were looking up for the beleaguered Greek economy. Economists polled by Consensus Economics predicted growth of 2% this year, following last year’s modest 0.8% expansion. Unemployment,...


July 5, 2015, 6:04 am, 1503776
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Given the sheer unpredictability of events in Greece we cannot be sure that George Osborne’s first post-election budget, his seventh in all, will be the biggest...


June 28, 2015, 4:04 am, 1498103
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There is more than a touch of déjà vu about George Osborne’s summer budget on July 8. In June 2010, when Osborne presented his first “emergency”...