Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


December 4, 2016, 6:04 am, 1699585
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Household debt is back in the headlines. Official figures show that consumer credit is rising by 10.5% a year, its fastest since well before the crisis,...


November 27, 2016, 4:04 am, 1697555
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In announcing that Wednesday’s autumn statement will be the last (at least until a future chancellor decides to reinstate it), Philip Hammond abandoned one tradition. He...


November 20, 2016, 6:04 am, 1695860
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Chancellors of the exchequer do not normally elicit much sympathy, usually falling effortlessly into the role of pantomime villain. It is hard, however, not to feel...


November 13, 2016, 4:04 am, 1693608
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The way we used to worry about the intrusion of politics into the economy and business now seems quaint and old-fashioned, belonging to a very different...


November 6, 2016, 6:04 am, 1690896
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. You would have to say that it has been bracing, not least for the pound. Blown in one direction – down – by the referendum result...


October 30, 2016, 6:04 am, 1688279
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. To the frustration of many MPs, and the concern of many businesses, the shape of Britain’s post-EU future remains clouded in uncertainty. When Jeremy Corbyn said...


October 23, 2016, 4:04 am, 1685894
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For Britain’s retailers – at least those who are not threatened with having their knighthood taken away – this should be a time of celebration. The...


October 16, 2016, 6:04 am, 1684012
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. What is the biggest risk to Britain’s economy over the next couple of years? Anybody watching sterling’s gyrations in recent days might conclude that, as on...


October 9, 2016, 6:04 am, 1682058
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The pound in your pocket is worth a lot less than it was, as Harold Wilson did not quite say. Actually, the reference to the most...


October 2, 2016, 6:04 am, 1680155
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It may be the nature of the beast, but economic anniversaries tend to be unhappy ones. Fortyyearsago,Britainwas in the middle of one of the most humiliating...