Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


March 19, 2017, 6:04 am, 1729878
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It might be an age thing but the pace of life these days can be dizzying. There was a time when budgets rarely unravelled, and even...


March 12, 2017, 5:04 am, 1727881
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. When it comes to budgets, there are some eternal verities. One is the contrast between the picture of the economy painted by the chancellor and the...


March 5, 2017, 4:04 am, 1725740
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Philip Hammond would rather he did not have to present a budget this week. We know that because, in November, he told us so. The spring...


February 26, 2017, 4:04 am, 1723482
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Every little bit of information adds to our knowledge, and changes our perceptions. In recent days we have had a flurry of such information from the...


February 19, 2017, 4:04 am, 1721267
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There is some news we should make a point of celebrating. The announcement a few days ago that Britain’s employment rate hit a record high of...


February 12, 2017, 4:04 am, 1719023
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has been producing its “green” budget for 35 years, through changing economic and political circumstances. The latest, the final one (for...


February 5, 2017, 4:04 am, 1716811
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes ideas that have been around for a long time suddenly build up a he ad of steam. So it is with one such idea at...


January 29, 2017, 6:04 am, 1714596
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The scores are in, and they show that Britain’s economy held up very well in the second half of last year, in the aftermath of the...


January 22, 2017, 4:04 am, 1712520
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Certainty and uncertainty. The certainty from Theresa May that Britain will be leaving the European Union’s single market is enabling some businesses to prepare now for...


January 15, 2017, 6:04 am, 1710661
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Inequality has become the fallback position for politicians in need of a theme, or organisations which want to show they care. Inequality, it seems, is driving...