Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


February 13, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1608418
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Every recording artist is familiar with the idea of the difficult second album – the tricky follow-up to a successful debut – as is every author of...


February 7, 2016, 4:04 am, 1606085
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Negative interest rates are in vogue. The Bank of Japan a few days ago joined a club which includes Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and the European Central...


January 31, 2016, 4:04 am, 1603795
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We do not yet have a date, and we do not yet have much of a campaign, but the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European...


January 24, 2016, 4:04 am, 1601460
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Mark Carney has spoken, in a speech to celebrate 50 years as a professor of economics at London’s Queen Mary University of Lord Peston (Robert’s dad)....


January 17, 2016, 4:04 am, 1599532
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Another year is now in full swing. Alongside all the other things sent to try us, including weak and volatile stock markets, a plunging oil price...


January 10, 2016, 4:04 am, 1597517
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Such is George Osborne’s reputation for political cunning, the natural reaction to anything he does is to look for the true meaning behind the message. Prince...


January 3, 2016, 6:04 am, 1595465
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk, as is the forecasting league table which accompanies the piece This is an excerpt. The easiest thing to do when looking ahead is to assume more of the same. That,...


December 27, 2015, 4:04 am, 1594103
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk, as is the forecasting league table which accompanies the piece This is an excerpt. So that was that. A year in which plenty happened, and plenty more might have happened....


December 20, 2015, 4:04 am, 1592586
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Pay, the final frontier, or am I getting my Star Trek and my Star Wars mixed up? Anyway, what happens to pay over the next 12...


December 13, 2015, 6:04 am, 1590238
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The drop in oil prices to $40 a barrel, and now to a couple of dollars below that level, resonates a lot with me. Readers with...