Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
November Payroll Employment
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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February 4, 2012, 8:05 pm, 948271
Following its most recent quarterly gathering on 17th January, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted unanimously that UK Bank Rate should be held at ½% on Thursday 9th February. The main reason why SMPC members again voted without any...
February 4, 2012, 8:04 pm, 948270
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The ducks, it seems, are all lined up in a row. Gross domestic product fell in the final quarter of last year, inflation is falling and...
February 3, 2012, 6:05 am, 948036
More good news for the economy with the purchasing managers' index for the service sector up from 54 in December to 56 in January, a 10-month high. This is what Markit said: "The UK service sector started 2012 in positive...
February 1, 2012, 10:05 am, 947637
The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing in January is strong and, in the circumstances, rather surprising. The index rose from 49.7 in December to 52.1 in January, pointing clearly to a resumption of the sector's expansion. Adding to the good...
January 30, 2012, 10:05 am, 947193
Jonathan Portes of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research asked me what I meant by 'Keynesian'. Jonathan's post is here, and there is an interesting one here from Simon Wren-Lewis. This is what I said: The National...
January 28, 2012, 8:05 pm, 947012
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In all likelihood, the 0.2% fall in GDP announced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week will be revised away in time. There were,...
January 25, 2012, 8:05 am, 945572
The 0.2% drop in gross domestic product inn the fourth quarter of 2011 was disappointing, but probably no more than that. It did not change estimates for growth in 2011 of 0.9% (1.4% excluding North Sea oil and gas) and...
January 24, 2012, 12:05 pm, 945172
The International Monetary Fund has revised down its growth forecast for 2012 to 3.3%, from 4% in September, and its 2013 forecast from 4.5% to 3.9%. To be fair, its earlier forecasts looked a little rosy, though the global economy...
January 24, 2012, 10:05 am, 945103
Public sector net borrowing was £13.7 billion last month, down from £15.9 billion a year earlier. The current budget deficit was £10.8 billion, down from £13.3 billion in December 2010. Upward revisions to earlier data mean that cumulative borrowing for...
January 23, 2012, 10:05 am, 944613
Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr), has published a lively rejoinder to my piece yesterday on his blog, here, in which he suggests I tie myself "up in all sorts of knots". Jonathan's...
