Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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David Smith’s EconomicsUK.com

"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


August 28, 2016, 4:04 am, 1668148
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is back to work, in my case after escaping to the Outer Hebrides, where the people were a lot friendlier than the weather and where...


August 7, 2016, 4:04 am, 1661747
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. You will forgive me, I hope, for being in a state of excitement since Thursday lunchtime. I cannot remember exactly what I was doing in March...


July 31, 2016, 4:04 am, 1659097
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. We are at an interesting moment, something which will be of intense interest to future economic historians. Business and consumer confidence have taken a battering since...


July 24, 2016, 6:04 am, 1656559
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. 2015 was an unusual year, though not as extraordinary as 2016 is turning out to be. Last year was strange because for the first time in...


July 17, 2016, 4:04 am, 1654319
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. So no more George Osborne. Hello Philip Hammond. But 0.5% Bank rate, the record low rate that lasted for the whole of Osborne’s chancellorship, lives to...


July 10, 2016, 4:04 am, 1652324
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. This continues to be a record-breaking time, though the records being broken are not necessarily those you would want. So, the pound’s peso-style two-day fall in...


July 3, 2016, 4:04 am, 1650494
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. What an extraordinary time it has been. During the worst of the global financial crisis I wrote that we had 10 years of big economic and...


June 26, 2016, 4:04 am, 1648529
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For many people reading this, Friday morning will have dawned as a moment of triumph, of liberation. That was not how I saw it, as you...


June 22, 2016, 8:04 am, 1647456
The moment has arrived. The biggest decision voters will take for decades is hours away. Most are unprepared for it, and with good reason. The referendum campaign has also revealed a new and unattractive type of politics in Britain....


June 19, 2016, 4:04 am, 1646565
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The moment is nearly upon us. Like the Scottish referendum in September 2014 but with even more at stake, a nerve-racking few days lie ahead. Either...