Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


March 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1431198
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Greece’s negotiations with its creditors have provided us all with an entertaining glimpse into the dysfunctional family that is the eurozone. So we have had Wolfgang...


March 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1431199
The Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold, entrenching its reversal, at the last meeting, of its long-standing call for rate rises. Those favouring a hold included members arguing that there is no inflationary pressure and/or that the...


February 15, 2015, 4:04 am, 1422706
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is easy to get depressed about deflation. Deflation and depression are linked in the mind for good reason. In what economic historians call the first...


February 8, 2015, 10:04 am, 1418543
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. George Osborne has, in spite of everything, a pretty good story to tell on the budget deficit. The scale of the borrowing problem the coalition inherited...


February 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1413996
In a significant reversal of its longstanding recommendation to raise rates, the Shadow MPC has voted to keep rates on hold. It should be emphasized that the driver of this shift was not a change in the personnel voting. Instead,...


February 1, 2015, 6:04 am, 1413995
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A month into the year and questions about the recovery are already being asked. Growth slowed at the end of last year, with the smallest quarterly...


January 25, 2015, 6:04 am, 1409477
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has been a big week for monetary policy, led of course by the European Central Bank’s €1 trillion-plus quantitative easing (QE) programme but also here,...


January 18, 2015, 6:04 am, 1406363
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How unusual is deflation? The Office for National Statistics has an inflation measure which goes back to 1800, mainly based on the retail prices index (RPI)....


January 11, 2015, 4:04 am, 1402317
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It may already be too late, given that the election campaign is already in full swing and the claims and counter claims about the public finances...


January 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1398789
In its email poll closing Thursday 2nd January, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by five votes to four that Bank Rate should be raised on January 8th, including four votes for a rise...