Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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August 30, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1327055
In its email poll closing Thursday 27th August, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on September 4th, including four votes for a rise...


August 30, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1327054
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain and France are two nations separated by just 21 miles of sea but sharply divided by their economic performance. France, economically stagnant, is experiencing rising...


August 16, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1319784
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Strange things are happening. Pay should not be falling at a time when employment is booming – up by 820,000 over the past year – and...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312369
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. During the worst of the global financial crisis, people were fond of quoting Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India’s planning commission. In his phrase: “Confidence...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312368
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Even by the standards of Britain’s housing market, the announcement a few days ago of a 3.9% May increase in house prices was a humdinger. The...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312370
In its email poll closing Wednesday 28th May, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by five votes to four that Bank Rate should be raised ¼% on June 5th, including four votes for a...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312365
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England has got itself into a terrible tangle over interest rates, which is threatening to make it look rather foolish. The big question...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312364
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain’s economy is expanding at a healthy rate. This month, for the first time, the average growth prediction for 2014 has hit 3% among the independent...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312366
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Gross domestic product, which came into being in Britain just before the D-Day landings we were commemorating earlier this month, is about to undergo one of...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312367
It may be that Mark Carney simply likes drawing attention to himself, in which case last night's Mansion House speech was a success. His was not the first hint that rates could rise sooner rather than later - the May...