Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


April 19, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1257851
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There are still nearly five months to go until the referendum on Scottish independence but the debate is definitely hotting up. The polls are getting more...


April 12, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1254737
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Being British means we are easily embarrassed even by modest success. The default position, when it comes to the economy, is to grumble. There is usually...


April 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1251341
In its most recent e-mail poll, which was finalised on Tuesday 1st April, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) decided by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on Thursday 10th April....


April 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1251340
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. One question keeps coming back to me from readers. Why, when it was such a big issue in the past, does the balance of payments no...


March 29, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1247986
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Inflation has been below the official 2% target for two months in a row, something it has not been possible to write for a long time....


March 28, 2014, 8:04 am, 1247445
Today's GDP figures - the third take on the final quarter of 2013 - showed a rise of 0.7%, as before, and confirm that business investment contributed significantly to that growth. Overall wages and salaries rose by 3% in 2013...


March 25, 2014, 8:04 am, 1245574
The February inflation figures were good, showing a drop in consumer price inflation from a below-target 1.9% to even further below target at 1.7%. If the squeeze on real wage growth had not already ended - as I think it...


March 22, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1244624
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. So, was it one of those budgets that will last about as long in the memory as the spring daffodils, or was it more enduring than...


March 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1242969
George Osborne's aim in the budget was to demonstrate that the government's plan is working and to show that he has not given up on rebalancing the economy. Did he succeed? The Office for Budget Responsibility's numbers are unremarkable -...


March 18, 2014, 10:04 am, 1242261
Today's announcements regarding the Bank of England were not quite as expected but they do the job. Ben Broadbent, like Mark Carney an ex Goldman Sachs employee, will succeed Charlie Bean as deputy governor responsible for monetary policy. Broadbent, a...