Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335860
The Scottish referendum campaign has engaged people in politics as never before, it is said, and this is a welcome and different kind of politics. It is, of course, welcome that voters in Scotland are engaged and mainly intend to...


September 14, 2014, 6:04 am, 1334547
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. With days to go, it it is still not clear whether Scotland will avoid the economic car-crash that would follow independence. It could still, as Deutsche...


September 7, 2014, 6:04 am, 1330599
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. In 11 days, voters in Scotland will decide on whether their country should go it alone. The latest Sunday-Times YouGov poll shows a two-point lead for...


September 3, 2014, 8:04 am, 1328389
Today's revised GDP and balance of payments data, taking us up to 2012, confirm what some of us have long suspected, that the recovery in recent years has been stronger than was initially reported. The new numbers show that the...


August 30, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1327055
In its email poll closing Thursday 27th August, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by six votes to three that Bank Rate should be raised on September 4th, including four votes for a rise...


August 30, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1327054
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain and France are two nations separated by just 21 miles of sea but sharply divided by their economic performance. France, economically stagnant, is experiencing rising...


August 16, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1319784
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Strange things are happening. Pay should not be falling at a time when employment is booming – up by 820,000 over the past year – and...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312366
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Gross domestic product, which came into being in Britain just before the D-Day landings we were commemorating earlier this month, is about to undergo one of...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312364
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Britain’s economy is expanding at a healthy rate. This month, for the first time, the average growth prediction for 2014 has hit 3% among the independent...


August 5, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1312365
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Bank of England has got itself into a terrible tangle over interest rates, which is threatening to make it look rather foolish. The big question...