Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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February 19, 2017, 4:04 am, 1721267
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. There is some news we should make a point of celebrating. The announcement a few days ago that Britain’s employment rate hit a record high of...


February 12, 2017, 4:04 am, 1719023
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has been producing its “green” budget for 35 years, through changing economic and political circumstances. The latest, the final one (for...


February 5, 2017, 4:04 am, 1716811
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes ideas that have been around for a long time suddenly build up a he ad of steam. So it is with one such idea at...


January 29, 2017, 6:04 am, 1714596
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The scores are in, and they show that Britain’s economy held up very well in the second half of last year, in the aftermath of the...


January 22, 2017, 4:04 am, 1712520
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Certainty and uncertainty. The certainty from Theresa May that Britain will be leaving the European Union’s single market is enabling some businesses to prepare now for...


January 15, 2017, 6:04 am, 1710661
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Inequality has become the fallback position for politicians in need of a theme, or organisations which want to show they care. Inequality, it seems, is driving...


January 8, 2017, 4:04 am, 1708567
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. The table to accompany the piece is available in the newspaper. Of all the experts to be castigated in recent months in this strange climate in...


January 1, 2017, 4:04 am, 1706818
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A new year is upon us, and with it the challenge of trying to plot a path through the uncertainty. That there is more uncertainty than usual...


December 25, 2016, 6:04 am, 1705393
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Well. I am spoilt for choice. Do I write about Donald Trump and whether his tax-cutting, infrastructure-boosting plans will mean a new dawn for the American...


December 18, 2016, 6:04 am, 1703519
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. For many people reading this, and for many whose businesses depend on healthy household finances, two trends will dominate the outlook in 2017. One is the...