Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


January 25, 2015, 6:04 am, 1409477
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has been a big week for monetary policy, led of course by the European Central Bank’s €1 trillion-plus quantitative easing (QE) programme but also here,...


January 18, 2015, 6:04 am, 1406363
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. How unusual is deflation? The Office for National Statistics has an inflation measure which goes back to 1800, mainly based on the retail prices index (RPI)....


January 11, 2015, 4:04 am, 1402317
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It may already be too late, given that the election campaign is already in full swing and the claims and counter claims about the public finances...


January 5, 2015, 8:04 am, 1398789
In its email poll closing Thursday 2nd January, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) recommended by five votes to four that Bank Rate should be raised on January 8th, including four votes for a rise...


January 4, 2015, 6:04 am, 1398397
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It would be nice not to have to look ahead into the reminder of 2015 at this point. Barely have we got over thinking about 2014...


January 3, 2015, 8:04 am, 1398159
A minor row has broken out over Conservative claims that the budget deficit has halved under the coalition. Most economists would say that it has. Public sector net borrowing this year will be 5% of GDP according to the Office...


December 28, 2014, 6:04 am, 1395523
The table to accompany this piece is available on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. What did we make of that? Whether we should lay it down and save it for...


December 21, 2014, 6:04 am, 1392741
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. A few days ago something happened which I have not experienced for a very long time, if ever. Inflation fell to just 1% and will surely...


December 14, 2014, 4:04 am, 1388772
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Rejoice. That is my normal response to lower oil prices. Filling up the car ranks second only to paying gas and electricity bills as the kind...


December 7, 2014, 4:04 am, 1384623
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Has the world changed? We knew before Wednesday’s autumn statement that George Osborne would be forced to concede that the budget deficit remains uncomfortably close to...