Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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"The personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of the Sunday Times, London.”


August 30, 2015, 4:04 am, 1536279
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It has been a nasty scare, and it is not yet over. Though I think they are overstated, the doubts about China will persist. Though the...


August 23, 2015, 4:04 am, 1532815
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. It is more than six years since the Bank of England launched quantitative easing (QE) and more than three years since it last actively did any....


August 16, 2015, 6:04 am, 1529193
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. I did wonder if this was the week when, in the light of Corbynmania, and what appears to be the Labour party’s longest suicide vote in...


August 2, 2015, 4:04 am, 1520334
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. An economic recovery is all about barriers and milestones. It is a story of getting over the barriers and counting off the milestones as you pass...


July 25, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1515712
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Sometimes I think that when George Osborne looks in the mirror each morning, he thinks: “Now how can I put the wind up the Labour party...


July 19, 2015, 6:04 am, 1511744
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Things are getting rather interesting. In the past few days we have had what looks like a concerted attempt by the Bank of England to prepare...


July 18, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1511516
My remarks on being awarded an honorary doctorate by the University of Nottingham, at a ceremony on Friday July 17. Vice Chancellor, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, parents, family members, academic staff and fellow graduands. If I’ve missed anybody out,...


July 18, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1511515
My new book, Something Will Turn Up, is about Britain's economy over recent decades, and into the future. This excerpt gives a flavour of where it and I started, in the industrial heartlands of the West Midlands. I was born...


July 15, 2015, 10:04 am, 1509602
My new book, Something Will Turn Up, is published on Thursday July 16. More about it here soon but, in the meantime, here is the descrption from by publisher, Profile: Overcoming economic decline, inflation and mass unemployment have challenged...


July 12, 2015, 4:04 am, 1507541
My regular column is available to subscribers on www.thesundaytimes.co.uk This is an excerpt. Five days on from any budget is always a bit of a challenge, particularly one that has been picked over more intensely than most. Fortunately there...