May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)
Economist Emily Oster argues that because randomized studies don't reproduce the results of observational studies, for the vast majority of people vitamin supplements probably aren't beneficial.
In these trials, participants were randomly assigned to take supplements. Because the assignment was random â€” and the trials were big â€” the ...
A new study suggests the policy may be doing more harm than good. It finds public school students in North Carolina who gain their first regular access to a home computer between the fifth and eighth grades experience â€śa persistent decline in reading and ...
Foreign language fluency for native English speakers is rapidly becoming a lousy investment because of 1) big, rapid improvements in machine translation and 2) the diffusion around the world of English. But there are supposedly cognitive benefits.
Philip Tetlock is updating his classic work. With advice on how to forecast with the acronym CHAMP.
Link via Marginal Revolution.
More refutation of "government is the name we give to things we do together". Why should New York residents have to pay to keep Colbert and Fallon where they were going to stay anyway?
"Your city. Judged."
Not for the politically correct or the overly sensitive.
I'm neither, and I laughed.
Master the rhythm of the buzzer.
Everybody should--ugh--eat their vegetables. Maybe these recipes will help.
If he wins everything, sure. If he doesn't . . .
"Below, you'll find the definitive list of "hip"â€”or formerly hip and now just richâ€”neighborhoods in major metropolitan areas in the U.S., Canada, and around the globe."