May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)
But since this is the federal government we're talking about maybe I should have expected that.
Professor Peter Gordon offers a concise and powerful reply to the folks who bemoan our "lack" of infrastructure investment.
"On the academyâ€™s latest folly."
There's no way I'm going to summarize this. If you have a few minutes, you just have to read it.
But--credit where credit is due--Professor Carey says a very smart thing about climate change models:
Carey is hardly skeptical about climate change or its ...
"But ignoring the problem wonâ€™t make it go away. In 2015, Illinoisâ€™ state pension debt reached a record $111 billion. Government-worker pensions already consume one-fourth of the stateâ€™s budget. And every day Illinois goes without a solution to its pension crisis, the stateâ€™s pension debt grows by over $20 ...
"More than a quarter of a million active and retired truckers and their families could soon see their pension benefits severely cut â€” even though their pension fund is still years away from running out of money."
More: "'This Is Going To Be A National Crisis' - One Of The ...
Because the island is a U.S. territory, what happens there will not stay there: America needs to prevent, or minimize, a humanitarian crisis, some of which would be exported to America. But ameliorative measures must be made conditional on fiscal, labor and other reforms on the ...
I don't believe it, but, hey, you're not supposed to argue with science!
Maybe. We'll see.
Funny, unless you were the one being yelled at.
The Cubs will win the World Series this year? Really?? I'm not sure I'm ready for the world to end.