Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)

April 15, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255625

Very interesting. Three highlights:

Why math?

I think the decisive moment was reading the book “Men of Mathematics” by Eric Temple Bell. Bell was a professor at Caltech, and he wrote this book, which is actually just a wonderful collection of biographies of mathematicians. Historians ...

April 15, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255624

The author well knows--as do the readers--that this is, currently, but a dream.

But a journey of 1,000 miles begins with the first step.

April 15, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255623

Two years old, but still good.

Yo mamma so dumb she thought marginal analysis was about butter.

April 15, 2014, 5:33 am, 1255585

"This mapshows the net domestic migration for each county in the U.S. for the year between July 1, 2012, and July 1, 2013, adjusted by the original 2012 population. Counties with positive net domestic migration (more people moving in than moving out) are in blue and counties with ...

April 15, 2014, 5:33 am, 1255584

April 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255063

Be nice to your gut bacteria and other germs.They own you.

April 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255062

April 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255060

Passover starts tonight and this sounds good.

April 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255058

Well . . . yeah. It's about time.

A rare sign of sanity in higher education: students are doing an end run on the ‘time served’ model of degree attainment at colleges, and instead are attending university in order to pick up only the skills they need.

April 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1255059

Sooner or later, most Americans will get tired of paying so much in taxes for such poor results. Maybe this is the beginning of "sooner": "New York Legislators Just Did The Unthinkable, And Voters Will LoveIt".

(Maybe this map hints at future developments.)