Technical Problems 1/21/15
The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)
By Deirdre McCloskey and it's a tour de force in a small space.
I don't agree--small corruption might be "O,K." but large-scale corruption is not. And cutting the federal government would go a long way to solving the problem.
But it's an impressive piece: Jay Cost is wrong, Samuel Bryan ...
That's consistent with my reading.
But you can't argue with his guy's advice, either: "The Brutally Honest 6 Reasons You Are Still Overfat". (Link via Instapundit.)
We'll see, but the author makes a pretty convincing case.
From the BBC, highlighting the research of John Leach, University of Portsmouth.
So the only reliable way to shortcut this kind of impaired thinking, most survival experts agree, is by preparing for an emergency in advance. . . . Typically, survivors survive not because they are braver or ...
Of the two India's the one I'd bet on.
The Chicago Sun-Times asks for a little honesty from the mayoral candidates.
Needless to say I agree. The country would be a lot better if politicians just stopped lying so much.
Ironman at Political Calcuations presents some interesting data on Wisconsin's recent economic performance.
And as a former academic, I found this bit especially interesting:
Actually, they don't. Meet "immortal time bias."
Larry Kotlikoff has co-authored a new book on the subject. I recommend it, especially if you don't know about "declare and suspend" and "spousal benefits"