Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)


May 2, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632027

More than I'd expected.

But since this is the federal government we're talking about maybe I should have expected that.


May 2, 2016, 7:34 am, 1632028

Professor Peter Gordon offers a concise and powerful reply to the folks who bemoan our "lack" of infrastructure investment.


May 2, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631991

"On the academy’s latest folly." 

There's no way I'm going to summarize this. If you have a few minutes, you just have to read it.

But--credit where credit is due--Professor Carey says a very smart thing about climate change models:

Carey is hardly skeptical about climate change or its ...


May 2, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631990

"But ignoring the problem won’t make it go away. In 2015, Illinois’ state pension debt reached a record $111 billion. Government-worker pensions already consume one-fourth of the state’s budget. And every day Illinois goes without a solution to its pension crisis, the state’s pension debt grows by over $20 ...


May 2, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631988

"More than a quarter of a million active and retired truckers and their families could soon see their pension benefits severely cut — even though their pension fund is still years away from running out of money."

More: "'This Is Going To Be A National Crisis' - One Of The ...


May 2, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631989

So true:

Because the island is a U.S. territory, what happens there will not stay there: America needs to prevent, or minimize, a humanitarian crisis, some of which would be exported to America. But ameliorative measures must be made conditional on fiscal, labor and other reforms on the ...


May 1, 2016, 7:34 am, 1631770

I don't believe it, but, hey, you're not supposed to argue with science!


May 1, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631759

Maybe. We'll see.


April 30, 2016, 7:34 am, 1631544

Funny, unless you were the one being yelled at.


April 30, 2016, 5:34 am, 1631539

The Cubs will win the World Series this year? Really?? I'm not sure I'm ready for the world to end.