May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)
From Examine.com, "Your Unbiased Source on Nutrition and Supplements":
There are no studies that indicate any long-term health risks from drinking diet soda. . . . There is no evidence that diet soda inhibits fat loss, or that it even spikes insulin levels to levels that would ...
"Donâ€™t get me wrong. I think self-driving cars will be one of this centuryâ€™s greatest technical achievements. But I am just astounded at how little work has been done by the companies planning to populate our streets with two-ton vehicles being controlled by software but little testing."
The Colonel's secret is out. (Coming soon to a social science journal near you: the effect of the recipe release on KFC's sales.)
Related: "Uncovering the secrets of NYCâ€™s favorite foods".
They must be celebrating in Baghdad by the Bay.
In 2012, the Civic Center station made headlines when a work crew pulled apart a broken escalator and discovered so much human excrement inside, they had to call a hazardous-materials team.
So, yes, it could be worse.
"Bookworm" from the Bookworm Room:
With a child heading off to college, Iâ€™ve decided to start a new feature at my blog. As the spirit moves me, Iâ€™m going to quote, verbatim, from college catalogs. Iâ€™m not going to go the cheap and easy route of quoting from ...
To me, this story illustrates the need for detailed, location-specific information in helping students and running schools.
The cause of sclerotic growth is the major economic policy question of our time. The three big explanations are 1) We ran out of ideas (Gordon); 2) Deficient "demand," remediable by more fiscal stimulus (Summers, say) 3); Death by a thousand cuts of cronyist regulation and ...
George Leef has great fun reviewing a new book claiming "college professors [are] harried and overburdened to the point where theyâ€™re putting their very health at risk".
Oddly, Berg and Seeber present data showing that actual corporate chief executive officers feel less stress and more ability to get their work ...
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget presents the discouraging forecasts.
CBO now projects deficits more than tripling, from $438 billion in 2015 to $1.24 trillion by 2026, with trillion dollar deficits returning by 2024. CBO now projects the deficit for 2016 to be $152 billion higher than 2015 ...
Very nicely done by