Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)

August 31, 2016, 7:34 am, 1669064

From, "Your Unbiased Source on Nutrition and Supplements":

There are no studies that indicate any long-term health risks from drinking diet soda. . . .There is no evidence that diet soda inhibits fat loss, or that it even spikes insulin levels to levels that would ...

August 31, 2016, 7:34 am, 1669065

"Don’t get me wrong. I think self-driving cars will be one of this century’s greatest technical achievements. But I am just astounded at how little work has been done by the companies planning to populate our streets with two-ton vehicles being controlled by software but little testing."

August 31, 2016, 5:34 am, 1669038

The Colonel's secret is out. (Coming soon to a social science journal near you: the effect of the recipe release on KFC's sales.)

Related: "Uncovering the secrets of NYC’s favoritefoods".

August 31, 2016, 5:34 am, 1669037

They must becelebrating in Baghdad by the Bay.

In 2012, the Civic Center station made headlines when a work crew pulled apart a broken escalator and discovered so much human excrement inside, they had to call a hazardous-materials team.

So, yes, it could be worse.

August 30, 2016, 7:34 am, 1668710

"Bookworm" from the Bookworm Room:

With a child heading off to college, I’ve decided to start a new feature at my blog. As the spirit moves me, I’m going to quote, verbatim, from college catalogs. I’m not going to go the cheap and easy route of quoting from ...

August 30, 2016, 7:34 am, 1668709

To me, this story illustrates the need for detailed, location-specific information in helping students and running schools.

August 30, 2016, 7:34 am, 1668707

John Cochrane:

The cause of sclerotic growth is the major economic policy question of our time. The three big explanations are 1) We ran out of ideas (Gordon); 2) Deficient "demand," remediable by more fiscal stimulus (Summers, say) 3); Death by a thousand cuts of cronyist regulation and ...

August 30, 2016, 7:34 am, 1668708

George Leef has great funreviewing a new book claiming "college professors [are]harried and overburdened to the point where they’re putting their very health at risk".

Oddly, Berg and Seeber present data showing that actual corporate chief executive officers feel less stress and more ability to get their work ...

August 30, 2016, 5:34 am, 1668687

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget presents the discouraging forecasts.

CBOnow projects deficits more than tripling, from $438 billion in 2015 to $1.24 trillion by 2026, with trillion dollar deficits returning by 2024. CBO now projects the deficit for 2016 to be $152 billion higher than 2015 ...

August 29, 2016, 7:34 am, 1668367

Very nicely done by