May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Newmark’s Door (Craig Newmark)
Bruce Schneier, a "long-time computer-security researcher," wrote about last week's big DDoS attack on the Net as follows:
What this all means is that the [internet of things] will remain insecure unless government steps in and fixes the problem. When we have market failures, government is the only solution. The ...
This week's bulletin from the land of You Can't Make This Stuff Up.
In the mid-2000s, in the midst of a housing boom, the Los Angeles Unified School District realized that skyrocketing rents were fueling teacher turnover.
Nearly half of all new ...
I won't defend the $ estimate, but I could defend the diagnosis. And this is the beginning of a solution:
Of all the serious problems in the American workplace, this one is the most solvable. And we can solve it one company, one culture, one worker at a time.
In favor: Nick Hanauer, entrepreneur, venture capitalist--according to Wikipedia, "the first non-family investor in Amazon"--and very rich.
Against, and a direct reply to Hanauer: Adam Ozimek, "America's Worst Minimum Wage Pundit".
More against (because it's the right answer):
Deirdre McCloskey, "The Secret History of the Minimum Wage".
The Law of Unintended Consequences is not something to trifle with.
"Spectacular," maybe, but not unexpected.
If you are a fan of Cruise's work, I think this is a fun 10 minutes.
Don't ask me why anyone would want to do it, but putting a PC into a gun is . . . well, imaginative.
Moneyball is a really fine movie. If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it.