Calculated Risk
Read the Bill McBride interview.
Jobs
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
EconModel
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National Assoc. for Business Econ.
National Association for Business Economics
July 8, 2012, 10:05 pm, 982291
The NABE Small Business-Entrepreneurship Roundtable will hold a teleconference to discuss how small businesses have fared over the past 12 months. The 2012 National Small Business Association (NSBA) Small Business Taxation Survey results will be presented. In addition, the NSBA Politics of Small Business Survey findings will provide an overview ...
May 27, 2012, 2:05 pm, 968490
The 2012 Transfer Pricing Symposium gathers leading professionals from business, government and consulting to discuss and debate some of the most relevant economics topics in the field of transfer pricing.
May 27, 2012, 12:05 pm, 968485
Now in its 9th year, The NABE Foundation's Economic Measurement Seminar is a convenient, cost-effective program designed to strengthen your knowledge of economic statistics and analytical techniques, enhancing your ability to add value in your workplace.
May 6, 2012, 10:05 pm, 964697
Stay at the top of your game - enroll in NABE's Applied Econometrics Certificate Program, Econometrics for the Business Analyst, July 9-12 in St. Louis, MO
April 16, 2012, 12:05 am, 960789
Internationl Roundtable teleconference webinar with Eugenio J. Aleman, Senior Economist and Director, Wells Fargo Bank, moderator
Michael S. Sheridan, Director, Global Trade Strategy and Policy, Ford Motor Company
April 1, 2012, 10:05 pm, 958452
April 23-26, 2012, Boston MA. The Applied Econometrics Certificate Program is not like academic econometric courses, which are often long on theory and short on practice. This program emphasizes business applications of statistical techniques and covers cutting-edge developments in economic methodologies and quantitative analysis.
March 18, 2012, 4:05 pm, 955887
Real Estate/Construction Roundtable teleconference on March 20 at 11:00 am, with Martha Peyton, Managing Director, Head of Global Real Estate Strategy and Research, TIAA-CREF, moderator; Ron Witten, President, Witten Advisors LLC; James Woodwell, Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research, MBA
February 26, 2012, 2:05 pm, 952063
NABE invites you to its first-ever Industry Conference, themed "Making it in America: Manufacturing Matters." The conference will take place May 30-31, 2012, at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Cleveland, OH.
February 12, 2012, 4:05 pm, 949618
Regional/Utility Roundtable Teleconference on February 28, with Jonathan T. Rothwell, Senior Research Analyst - Metropolitan Policy Program, The Brookings Institution; Timothy J. Considine, SER Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming; Jim Diffley, Director, IHS Global Insight, moderator
January 29, 2012, 2:05 pm, 947075
Teleconference on February 7, with Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Company, and G. Mustafa Mohatarem, General Motors Corporation. Moderated by Jim Meil, Eaton Corporation
