Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Analysis on corporate strategy, economics, some occasional neuroscience, and anything else that interests me”

June 25, 2015, 8:04 am, 1496789

The word “bailout” became ubitious during the Great Recession. From banks “too big to fail” to the faltering auto industry in Detroit, Washington has been the go-to lender of last resort for many American companies.

And the ...

June 24, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1496615

Supermarket chain Whole Foods has outright denied claims that customers in New York City were being overcharged by the fresh food provider. The company has been backed into a corner after an investigation by the New ...

June 24, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1496614

Facebook closed on Wednesday with stock prices reaching a record $88.86 per share, valuing the company at just under $250 billion.

Analysts have been very bullish on Facebook in recent months thanks to stronger than expected ...

June 24, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1496460

The labor force in 22 of the 50 United States is going to shrink over the next 15 years according to state-by-state projections of the working-age population from the Conference Board.

In terms of loss, Vermont ...

June 24, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1496368

Millennials are spending less on vacations and their thrifty getaways are causing a headache for the travel industry. According to travel insurance company Allianz Global Assistance, “Summer travel will actually increase by one-half of a percent in 2015.”

The company ...

June 24, 2015, 10:04 am, 1496195

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced on Wednesday that his country’s newest bailout proposal has been denied by the regions creditors.

Some of Tsipras’ supporters in the Syriza government party that propelled him to power have been ...

June 24, 2015, 10:04 am, 1496194

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren wants us to bank at our local post office. The politician and consumer advocate has announced a plan that would bring budget-priced banking services to U.S. citizens.

In May 2015, the USPS said it had lost $1.5 ...

June 24, 2015, 8:04 am, 1496115

If you are going to disrupt an industry or take over an established field you need to have a strong set of actionable business items that can help you succeed. Whether you need to “analyze your competition” or ...

June 23, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1495883

Matthew Yglesias wrote a perceptive piece at Vox this weekend on the “mystery” surrounding unfilled jobs. Basically, there are a lot of job openings right now but they ...

June 23, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1495882

The uninsured rate in the US has decreased by nearly one-fifth and it has reached record lows just one full year after the Affordable Care Act was fully implemented according to data ...