Technical Problems 1/21/15
The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
In the latest (Winter 2015) issue of the Independent Review, I review Edmund Phelps’s 2013 book, Mass Flourishing. Here are my opening few paragraphs:
Vertigo. That’s the sensation I experienced when reading Edmund Phelps’s Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change. The fault, however, isn’t Phelps’s; it’s mine. ...
Here’s a video of a talk that Deirdre McCloskey gave last November at Wabash College on Piketty’s smash best-seller on economic inequality. (The lecture series is named after the late, great Ben Rogge, who was an economics professor at Wabash.)
Around the 15-minute ...
Inspired by this post by Tyler Cowen, my unconventional colleague Bryan Caplan shares some of his conventional views, such as this one (that I also share):
In a very real way, I’m grateful to Uncle Sam for his idiotic policy during the 1970s of putting price ceilings on energy. Those ceilings bestowed upon me a great deal of first-hand experience with gasoline shortages and with waiting in the resulting long queues. Those experiences were ...
Tonight’s Stossel (9:00pm EST, Fox Business) is entitled “Mob Rule.” One of the segments features me and Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul discussion trade and protectionism with John Stossel. Scott is the protectionist; I’m the free trader (as is, of course, Stossel). Tune in!
… is from page 128 of James Grant’s superb 2014 book, The Forgotten Depression – a volume about the U.S. experience with the depression of 1920-21 and the rapid recovery from that depression, a recovery not engineered, steered, or ‘stimulated’ by the state:
As far as the political-eocnomic mind ...
In Montgomery County, MD, (where Russ lives), the personal possession and discharge of firecrackers and other fireworks is prohibited. (It’s “unlawful.”) In bordering Fairfax County, VA, (where I live), the personal possession and discharge of firecrackers and other small fireworks is not prohibited. (It’s “lawful.”)
Suppose that some officious ...
This post is inspired by some comments at this EconLog post by David Henderson.
Money prices set by market forces play a uniquely important role in directing and disciplining economic actions. This role is both so central to an economy’s health, as well as so deeply ignored or ...
… is from page 423 of Robert Bork’s masterful 1978 volume, The Antitrust Paradox:
When an ideology is institutionalized it becomes, paradoxically, less visible – even to those who implement it. The basic ideas are no longer apprehended or controverted, and hence it becomes easier to move further ...