September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The winners of the first EconTalk essay contest comparing Mokyr and Cowen’s vision of the future are Dallas Weaver, Eric Mustin, and Scott Atherley. Rather than pick a single winner, I picked three, because each essay had something I really liked. Each ...
A view of the Future
Tyler Cowen describes a future where computers/robots become capable of doing many, if not most jobs available today and do them ...
Getting Our Growth Checked Out
The podcasts of Mokyr and Cowen both forecast amazing technological growth, but differ on how that growth will impact the ...
The main difference between Cowen and Mokyr, in regards to the future of the American economy, is tone and emphasis. Average is Over (henceforth AIO) is anything but ...
My GMU Econ colleague Bryan Caplan offers yet another useful perspective on minimum-wage legislation – that is, legislation that makes it unlawful for anyone to work for pay who cannot persuade employers to hire him or her at wages at least as high as the legislated minimum. ...
… is from page 234 of the late William Niskanen’s 2002 essay “The Intellectual Case for a Free Market Economy,” which is reprinted as chapter 22 in the valuable 2008 collection of some of the best of Niskanen’s writings, Reflections of a Political Economist (footnote omitted):
The primary moral case ...
Kenny Rogers’s song “You Picked a Fine Time to Leave Me, Lucille” was never one of my favorites. But I like it much better now that it’s been reworked by Chuck Redden. (HT Walter Williams)
George Packer at the New Yorker explains why the economy is working poorly:
In other words, as Steven Greenhouse reported in a bleak post-Thanksgiving article, too many Americans now work low-paying jobs—for example, stocking inventory and ringing up merchandise in big-box stores like Walmart and Target—to have ...
Here is President Obama’s summary of what happened to economic life in America after the late 1970′s:
As values of community broke down, and competitive pressure increased, businesses lobbied Washington to weaken unions and the value of the minimum wage. As a trickle-down ideology became more prominent, taxes ...
I want to thank the 15 or so people who submitted an entry for the EconTalk essay contest. Hope to post the winner here tomorrow (Thursday) by 5 pm eastern and announce a new contest....