Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Marginal Revolution

"Small steps toward a much better world”

October 20, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1354275

October 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1354192

October 20, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1354191

Maybe that welfare cost is not very high at all.   After all, if Amazon does not carry a book you can sign up at the Barnes & Noble website and that takes a few minutes at most.

There is a tension in most criticisms of Amazon.  On one hand, the ...

October 20, 2014, 10:05 am, 1354030

There is a new NBER paper by Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, and Heqing Zhu, and it is a startler though perhaps not a surprise:

Hundreds of papers and hundreds of factors attempt to explain the cross-section of expected returns. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make ...

October 20, 2014, 6:05 am, 1353891

The Germans lecture the periphery to engage in structural reform and increase their exports.  A variety of IS-LM Keynesians strike back and note that not all nations can increase their net exports, therefore it is a kind of zero-sum game which won’t boost aggregate demand overall.  This is sometimes followed ...

October 20, 2014, 2:05 am, 1353794

This is from Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett:

…knowing the current growth rate only modestly improves the prediction of future growth rates over just guessing it will be the (future realized) world average.  The R-squared of decade-ahead predictions of decade growth varies from 0.056 (for the most recent decade) to 0.13.  ...

October 19, 2014, 4:05 pm, 1353743

A shocking example is the decrepit state of German military hardware. Of the Luftwaffe’s 254 fighter planes, 150 cannot fly.

That is from Wolfgang Münchau at the FT.

October 19, 2014, 2:05 pm, 1353714

October 19, 2014, 8:05 am, 1353636

Charles Murray has a good piece on Ayn Rand, critical in parts but especially insightful about why Rand’s books continue to be so inspirational and influential:

Rand expressed the glory of human achievement. She tapped into the delight a human being ...

October 19, 2014, 2:05 am, 1353583

Underpaid or overpaid?:

They’re looking for the few, the proud — and the really desperate.

For a measly $19 an hour, a government contractor is offering applicants the opportunity to get up close and personal with potential Ebola patients at JFK Airport — including taking their temperatures.

Angel Staffing Inc. is hiring brave ...