May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Small steps toward a much better world”
Here you can watch a video about Alan Krueger not being able to get a mortgage on a second home.
Maybe that welfare cost is not very high at all. After all, if Amazon does not carry a book you can sign up at the Barnes & Noble website and that takes a few minutes at most.
There is a tension in most criticisms of Amazon. On one hand, the ...
There is a new NBER paper by Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, and Heqing Zhu, and it is a startler though perhaps not a surprise:
Hundreds of papers and hundreds of factors attempt to explain the cross-section of expected returns. Given this extensive data mining, it does not make ...
The Germans lecture the periphery to engage in structural reform and increase their exports. A variety of IS-LM Keynesians strike back and note that not all nations can increase their net exports, therefore it is a kind of zero-sum game which won’t boost aggregate demand overall. This is sometimes followed ...
This is from Larry Summers and Lant Pritchett:
…knowing the current growth rate only modestly improves the prediction of future growth rates over just guessing it will be the (future realized) world average. The R-squared of decade-ahead predictions of decade growth varies from 0.056 (for the most recent decade) to 0.13. ...
A shocking example is the decrepit state of German military hardware. Of the Luftwaffe’s 254 fighter planes, 150 cannot fly.
That is from Wolfgang Münchau at the FT.
1. Good essay on risk communication during pandemics (though it focuses on flu, not Ebola).
3. What Saddam Hussein said in public vs. what he said in private (hat tip www.bookforum.com for the ...
Charles Murray has a good piece on Ayn Rand, critical in parts but especially insightful about why Rand’s books continue to be so inspirational and influential:
Rand expressed the glory of human achievement. She tapped into the delight a human being ...
Underpaid or overpaid?:
They’re looking for the few, the proud — and the really desperate.
For a measly $19 an hour, a government contractor is offering applicants the opportunity to get up close and personal with potential Ebola patients at JFK Airport — including taking their temperatures.
Angel Staffing Inc. is hiring brave ...