January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Scott Sumner reports:
So the Texas oil boom was quite recent, beginning about 2010. Now let’s look at the population growth figures before and after the recent boom:
Where is all the population growth from fracking?
Texas’s population grew at roughly twice the national ...
Japan’s economy grew by 0.7% in 2013, down from an initial estimate of 1%.
…Japan’s trade gap also rose to a new record last month, increasing by 71% to 2.79tn yen in January, official figures showed.
There is more here, via R. Lopez. For background and context, see
Clifford Asness and John Liew have an excellent piece in Institutional Investor on Fama, Shiller and The Great Divide over Market Efficiency. Asness and Liew are both students of Fama so you might expect them to come down squarely on the side of market efficiency but they are also ...
Stockholm’s homeless population recently began accepting card payments.
The article is more generally about the high costs of cash payments and also storing cash:
In the US,a study by Tufts University concluded that the cost of using cash amounts to around $200 billion per year – about $637 per person. ...
The World Bank lists Russia at $14,037 per capita income.
That same source lists Ukraine at $3,867.
Russian per capita income is slightly more than 3.6 times higher. I am not suggesting that Crimea will now experience an economic boom, but this differential is worth keeping in mind ...
The author is Christopher Hale and the subtitle is the rather misleading Exposing Britain’s My Lai.
The first fifth of this book is in fact the best short early economic history of Malaysia and Singapore I know, even though the focus of the book as a whole is on ...
That is the new Ezra Klein-led news site, and a demo version of the site is at www.vox.com, where you can watch an explanatory video. You can follow them on Twitter here. They are on Instagram here. YouTube here.
You can also think ...
These points have been far too often forgotten:
Even if the multiplier is substantially above 1, it is not obvious that stimulus spending is a good idea. The reason is that we are not trying to maximize output and employment – we are trying to maximize overall social well-being. At a ...