Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.

Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

RSS Feed

Money and Banking

December 10, 2018, 7:25 am, 1928015

“Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.” Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, November 28, 2018.

“We’re a long way ...

December 3, 2018, 8:36 am, 1925940

“The turmoil that followed the failure of Lehman and the decision to rescue AIG … underscored the absence of a third alternative to the options of bailout or disruptive bankruptcy.” Daniel K. Tarullo, October 18, 2013.

Addressing the calamity posed by the failure of large, global financial intermediaries has ...

November 19, 2018, 8:36 am, 1922201

“A multitude of federal agencies, self-regulatory organizations, and state authorities share oversight of the financial system under a framework riddled with regulatory gaps, loopholes, and inefficiencies.” The Volcker Alliance, Reshaping the Financial Regulatory System, p. 1, 2015.

Over the past century, an alphabet soup of agencies and rules overseeing ...

November 12, 2018, 8:35 am, 1919774

Bank of Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo “called for more policy coordination and harmonization between countries so that emerging markets can lead global growth alongside a recovery in the U.S. economy.” Nusa Dua, Indonesia, October 8, 2018.

Do changes in U.S. dollar interest rates have a material impact on financial ...

October 29, 2018, 8:35 am, 1912857

“The Council’s decision today follows extensive engagement with [Prudential] and a detailed analysis showing that there is not a significant risk that the company could pose a threat to financial stability.” Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin, October 17, 2018.

“Insurers and banks also don’t pose the same risk to ...

October 22, 2018, 8:35 am, 1909959

“By and large our negative interest-rate policies have been a success. We haven’t seen the distortions that people were foreseeing. We haven’t seen bank profitability going down; in fact, it is going up.” Mario Draghi, Comments at the Peterson Institute, Washington D.C., October 12, 2017. (at 36 minutes ...

October 15, 2018, 7:44 am, 1907457

Housing debt typically is on the short list of key sources of risk in modern financial systems and economies. The reasons are simple: there is plenty of it; it often sits on the balance sheets of leveraged intermediaries, creating a large common exposure; as collateralized debt, its value is sensitive ...

October 8, 2018, 8:35 am, 1905712

“When the official statistics on economic growth understate real economic growth, it reduces public faith in the political and economic system.” Martin Feldstein, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2017.

People use a variety of statistics to gauge how the economy is doing. And policymakers need data to guide ...

October 1, 2018, 9:24 am, 1903871

“[I]t is a question of when, not if, a large-scale attack succeeds.” DTCC and Oliver Wyman, Large-scale Cyber-attacks on the Financial System, March 2018.

“The government cannot credibly commit to a no-bailout policy.” Kathryn Judge, “Guarantor of Last Resort,” 97 Texas Law Review, forthcoming.

Modern financial systems are ...