Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Money and Banking


February 13, 2017, 9:33 am, 1719288

“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” ECB President Mario Draghi, 26 July 2012.

In 2012, the ECB faced down a mortal threat to the euro: fears of redenomination (the re-introduction of domestic ...


February 6, 2017, 9:33 am, 1717048

“Despite the clear message delivered by President Donald Trump in prioritizing America’s interest in international negotiations, it appears that the Federal Reserve continues negotiating international regulatory standards for financial institutions among global bureaucrats in foreign lands without transparency, accountability, or the authority to do so. This is unacceptable.”


January 30, 2017, 9:33 am, 1714869

"That [comparative advantage] is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that it is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them."


January 23, 2017, 9:33 am, 1712728

“Bitcoin is the currency of the Internet: a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital currency. Unlike traditional currencies such as dollars, bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever: there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. As such, it is more resistant to wild inflation and ...


January 16, 2017, 9:33 am, 1710866

“We call for further analysis of the technicalities, opportunities, and challenges of state-contingent debt instruments, including GDP-linked bonds.” G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors, 23-24 July 2016, Chengdu, China

Gross government debt in advanced economies has surpassed 105% of GDP, up from less than 75% a decade ago. ...


January 9, 2017, 9:33 am, 1708875

“We teach our students that […] the benefits of a simpler, more easily administered tax system that treats different forms of income more equally may well rise as our need for revenue rises. We also teach them that progressive taxation involves a trade-off between equity and efficiency and that, when ...


January 2, 2017, 9:33 am, 1707036

“The independence of the central bank to set a monetary course separate from the day-to-day of electoral politics is as fragile as it is essential.” Peter Conti-Brown

The median FOMC participant forecasts that the Committee will raise the target range for the federal funds rate three times this year. ...


December 26, 2016, 7:33 am, 1705540

As 2016 draws to a close, it’s natural to look back over the year’s posts. With all the swirling concerns about China-U.S. relations—including the selection of the protectionist co-author of Death by China to head a new White House National Trade Council—we wondered whether our February doubts about ...


December 19, 2016, 9:33 am, 1703768

“Far from being synonymous with stability, the gold standard itself was the principal threat to financial stability and economic prosperity between the wars.” Barry Eichengreen, Golden Fetters.

The extraordinary monetary easing engineered by central banks in the aftermath of the 2007-09 financial crisis has fueled criticism of discretionary policy ...


December 12, 2016, 11:33 am, 1701831

Critics of the Dodd-Frank Act argue that the new regulatory regime has weakened small banks (see, for example, Peirce, Robinson, and Stratmann). This criticism is echoed in the Financial CHOICE Act—proposed by House Financial Services Chair Jeb Hensarling—that would largely scrap the current oversight of large ...