Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

July 31, 2014, 1:33 am, 1308648

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released new state crude oil production data yesterday for the month of May, and one of the highlights of that monthly report is that oil output in America’s No. 1 oil-producing state – Texas – ...

July 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1308270

Jim Pethokoukis and Arthur Brooks in their defense of an economic safety net do not go far enough in their explicit and implicit criticisms of the view of the Ayn Rand Institute and others that a safety net is coercive in terms of its ...

July 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1308268

“Surprise!” say the sell-side, upbeat economy touts. Second quarter GDP growth came in at a 4% pace, well above the expected 3% pace.

But that’s as good as the news gets.

It’s best to average two choppy quarters, especially when the first quarter was said to have been depressed – now to ...

July 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1308269

In a breathless Federalist piece,”Conservatives Need To Have It Out Over The Federal Reserve,” Willis Krumholz offers a data-salad recap of the wrong-headed, Austrian-based (sigh …), Paulite-tinged (double sigh …) criticisms of Federal Reserve policy that is currently popular on ...

July 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1308266

In a new research note, First Trust economists Bob Stein and Brian Wesbury engage in a bit of economic mythbusting. In the June jobs report, according to the Household Survey, part-time jobs increased by 799,000 out of total job gains of 407,000. That means full-time jobs fell. And ...

July 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1308267

An interesting anecdote from economic historican Carl Benedikt Frey that really syncs with what MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee wrote in “The Second Machine Age.” Two key ways for workers to deal with automation is through education and entrepreneurship:

Labor markets may once again ...

July 30, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1308183

Throughout President Obama’s first term, White House economists kept predicting strong economic growth was just around the corner. Soon, very soon, real GDP would grow at 4% a year or more, quarter after quarter.

Never happened. Although the economy grew by 4.0% during the second quarter of this year ...

July 30, 2014, 11:33 am, 1308101

Even with an unexpectedly strong second-quarter GDP report, the current economic recovery is the weakest since World War II. Even worse, many long-term forecasts — including those from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve, and White House — see future growth far slower than the postwar average. But the economy ...

July 29, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1307446

The Ayn Rand Institute is disappointed in Paul Ryan. Here the House Budget Chairman goes to all the trouble of rolling out an anti-poverty plan, and he somehow forgets to obliterate the safety net. What gives? Does Ryan remember nothing from the Ayn Rand reading of his youth? Someone delete ...

July 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1307369

Democrats rule! For the partisan left, the first sentence of “Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration” is probably plenty: “The U.S. economy has grown faster—and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics—when
the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican.”

Case closed. ...