Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

September 16, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335781

There is a lot of economic nostalgia — particularly on the left with its fond memories of the unionized 1950s — for manufacturing. In his 2013 State of the Union address, President Obama asked Congress to finance “manufacturing hubs” as a way of turning “regions left behind by ...

September 15, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1335304

One has to be struck by how the markets are choosing to turn a blind eye to the ill-winds of political change that continue to blow through Europe. One also has to be struck by how markets fail to be link Europe’s political fragmentation to its very poor economic performance ...

September 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335231

The Wealth Building Home Loan (WBHL), a new approach to home finance, opened to rave reviews at the American Mortgage Conference held September 8-10. Six leaders of national stature made favorable comments from the podium. Lewis Ranieri, considered the “godfather” of mortgage finance, in his keynote address praised ...

September 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1335230

The Tax Foundation has put together a Tax Competitive Index, which finds “the United States has the 32nd most competitive tax system out of the 34 OECD member countries.”

Tax Foundation

Here are few key ...

September 15, 2014, 9:33 am, 1335072

The great economic lesson of the 1980s supply-side revolution is that taxes matter. But what are the nuances of that lesson, and how should that lesson by applied to the modern American economy? Politicians and pundits typically offer extreme versions of how tax reform would affect growth, either that it ...

September 12, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1334185

The triennial Survey of Consumer Finances was recently release by the Fed. Over at Bloomberg, Mark Whitehouse gathers together some of the data from the report on US families’ debts. Despite the “overall improvement in the state of U.S. household finances,” it turns out that by some measures ...

September 12, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1334187

Just catching up now to a Forbes piece by Brian Domitrovic, another broadside against the expansion of the child tax credit outlined in the conservative reform policy book “Room to Grow.” This bit is unfortunately representative of the piece:

The “Room to Grow: suggestion is Keynesianism by another ...

September 12, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1334186

Great summary from MKM economist Mike Darda:

Retail sales were in line with expectations in August, but upward revisions pushed the six-month annual rate of increase above 7%. We believe the pickup in sales is sustainable due to three bullish forces colliding: improving labor market conditions, ...

September 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1333520

New research suggests that one of the key economic claims used to sell Obamacare to Congress might not be true:  Here is Obama White House budget boss and healthcare guru Peter Orszag in 2009:

As I have written and talked about before, one of the biggest signals ...

September 11, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1333372

The official US unemployment rate is 6.1% vs. a Great Recession high of 10.0% and a low of 4.4% during the last expansion. So what do we make of that number? Although the jobless rate has fallen a lot, so has the labor force participation rate. The LFPR was 66% ...