Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303994

Today marks the four-year anniversary of the Dodd-Frank Act. The financial regulatory bureaucracy has swelled to historic proportions and many of Dodd-Frank’s new rules are restricting credit and economic growth with questionable benefits to safety and soundness. So far, regulators have done little to consider the economic impact ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303995

From “Expanding the School Breakfast Program: Impacts on Children’s Consumption, Nutrition and Health” by Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach and Mary Zaki:

School meals programs are the front line of defense against childhood hunger, and while the school lunch program is nearly universally available in U.S. public schools, the school breakfast program ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303991

Some folks on the right, such as Ben Domenech and Sean Davis of The Federalist, seem oddly desperate to make the case that inflation is dangerously high, and the Federal Reserve is to blame. Now it is certainly a neat political argument, one that combines the ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303993

Judging by the policy advice being offered to the European Central Bank by the International Monetary Fund and the editorial writers of the Financial Times, one would think that there was an unambiguous case for ECB quantitative easing. After all, European inflation is presently running at around a quarter of the ECB’s ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303990

Interesting piece by WaPo reporter Todd Frankel on US fertility rates and the bad economy. Here is the hed:  “They want a baby. The economy won’t play along: America’s birth rates are still near a historic low. One couple’s lesson in the new economics of having a child.”  And ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303992

The chart above helps to illustrate the significance of America’s shale oil and gas boom by showing the combined domestic output of US oil and gas (in quadrillion BTUs, EIA data here). After production of conventional oil and gas peaked ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303988

1.) On Tuesday the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled on the Halbig v. Burwell case. The court, “on a 2-1 vote, invalidated an Internal Revenue Service regulation that implemented a key piece of the 2010 Affordable Care Act. The regulation said ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303986

In the new Minneapolis Fed paper, “Too Correlated to Fail,” V.V. Chari and Christopher Phelan argue attacking “Too Big To Fail” and moral hazard by limiting bank size won’t by itself end the moral hazard problem caused by financial institution anticipating government bailouts:

In this paper, we argue that ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303987

Some people really don’t like “big box” retailers. The openings of new stores, particularly in cities, are frequently accompanied by protests. Recall that Occupy Wall Street targeted retailers, including Wal-Mart, Target, and Best Buy. Critics knock these companies for a variety of reason, including low wages, meager benefits, and their ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303989

From Stanford’s Vivek Wadhwa in Politico:

Skilled immigrants are more important to the United States than ever, because it is on the verge of a major reinvention. Its scientists and entrepreneurs are setting the wheels in motion to solve humanity’s grand challenges—in areas such as ...