Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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AEIdeas - Economics

October 24, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1357427

John. G. Taft is undoubtedly a smart man. He runs the Royal Bank of Canada’s wealth management department for the U.S., which you couldn’t do without being pretty bright. One pitfall for bright people, however, is that you sometimes think because you know a lot about one thing that you ...

October 24, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1357428

It’s national retirement week, so we have rounded up some of the top pieces by AEI economist Andrew Biggs on retirement, Social Security, and whether or not Americans are saving enough.

“Is there a retirement crisis?” Biggs:

Adequate retirement income, in this sense, is an income that allows retirees ...

October 24, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1357351

The Economist magazine’s Free Exchange column cites new research suggesting that geography is a big factor in unemployment, especially for lower income Americans, Simply put. “Jobs are often located where poorer people cannot afford to live.” 

One study the piece does not mention is that from the ...

October 24, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357190

The Theory, as taught to generations of economics students:

“Economists say there is a zero bound on the nominal interest rate: it cannot go below zero.” “Nobody would lend money at a negative nominal rate of interest because they could do better by simply holding cash.”

–Paul Krugman et al., “Economics: European Edition”

The ...

October 24, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357189

Well, this is curious. Part of the Republican brand, I thought, was that the GOP was the party of debt reduction and the need to reform entitlements. Paul Ryan made his name as a policy wonk because of his support for Medicare reform. And recall that President Bush unsuccessfully pushed ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356593

There’s an overdue debate going on over the extent of China’s economic troubles. There are many angles but two indicators don’t get enough attention because they’re down in the weeds. Chinese monetary aggregates say the country is in serious trouble.

M1 is called narrow money, in China defined as ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356592

I wrote yesterday about the possibility of McDonald’s possible automating away its cashiers. Now Mickey Ds denies that’s the intention of their plan to, as the Wall Street Journal puts it, “roll out new technology in some markets to make it easier for customers to order and pay digitally ...

October 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1356591

It’s becoming something close to consensus on the left that very high tax rates won’t hurt economic growth. After all, the US did just fine in the 1950s with a 91% top rate, right? Here is a bit of my thinking on that, from a post

October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356437

While Washington keeps talking about income stagnation for the 99%, seem incomes have stopped stagnating — at least for the 80%. From a new Goldman Sachs note:

Perhaps more importantly from the perspective of overall consumption growth, lower- and middle-income wage earners … are sharing fully in the recovery. This is ...

October 23, 2014, 11:33 am, 1356356

That’s the question raised in a new Washington Post column by AEI economist Mike Strain. Or as the click-friendly headline puts it: “Janet Yellen is in danger of becoming a partisan hack: The Federal Reserve chair shouldn’t be picking a side in political debates.”

Keep in mind Strain is no reflexive Yellen ...