Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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AEIdeas - Economics

August 30, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1327015

So this year is not shaping up much better, growth-wise, that any other year during the Not-So-Great Recovery. What should we be doing right now to move from stagnation to acceleration? Here is MIT’s Andrew McAfee, co-author with Erik Brynjolffson of “The Second Machine Age,” giving some good ...

August 29, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1326792

A sign that you’ve hit the mark is when people respond to arguments you didn’t make rather than the ones you did. My recent Wall Street Journal piece on progressives’ response to the rising Social Security deficit made a very simple point: you’d think a bigger shortfall would ...

August 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1326666

The Federalist website offers yet another critique of expanding the child tax credit vs. sharply lowering top tax rates. A few things:

1.)  As a supporter of CTC expansion, I feel at a bit of a disadvantage since critics such as Cato’s Dan Mitchell aren’t offering constructive ...

August 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1326665

Check out the top pieces we’re reading today on the economy, technology, education, and more.

1.)The Atlantic goes inside Google’s secret drone-delivery program here.

2.) From WSJ: Ebola virus outbreak could hit 20,000 within nine months, warns WHO.

3.) Is Ed reform tripping with a testing high? ...

August 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1326137

Check out the top pieces we’re reading today on the economy, technology, family, and more.

1.) Should the SAT be optional? Jonathan Wai weighs in at Quartz.

2.) Carson Bruno looks at the economic impact of the Napa earthquake in this Real Clear Markets piece.

3.) Here are the ...

August 28, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1326061

A new IGM Forum poll of economists finds large, confident majorities who think US states are (a) understating pension liabilities and (b) at risk — at least some of them — of eventually needing a combo of austerity budgets, a federal bailout, and/or default unless they soon increase ...

August 27, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1325491

The Wall Street Journal sums up the new CBO budget report:

The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday said the federal budget deficit over the next decade will be smaller than previously forecast, as the government continues to benefit from low interest rates.

The CBO said the deficit through ...

August 27, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1325490

Check out the top pieces we’re reading today on the economy, technology, and more.

1.) How much disincentive is too much? Jim Manzi asks in Cato Unbound.

2.) Jason Russell writes on how right to work helps unions and economic growth in his latest from e21.

3.) From the National Bureau ...

August 27, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1325489

Conservatives are for growth. Liberals are for redistribution. Conservatives worry about growing the pie. Liberals worry about slicing and re-slicing the pie to make sure everyone gets a fair piece.

At least those are the shorthand, flawed stereotypes. But it is the “pie” metaphor that I want to focus on for ...

August 27, 2014, 11:33 am, 1325359

US-Asia economic relations are one of the keys to a prosperous 21st century. In that light, yesterday did not bring good news.

As part of its recent spate of nasty economic behavior, China has been harassing foreign car-markers for “monopolizing” their own parts supply. This is something ...