Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256413

If you’re looking for 10 valuable lessons on welfare reform, AEI’s Robert Doar has them. Doar was commissioner of the New York City Human Resources Administration (HRA) from early 2007 until the end of 2013, and “from 1995 until the end of 2013, New ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256414

Federal income taxes went up last year, a financial reality becoming ever clearer to many higher-earning Americans as tax day looms. But how much higher can Washington clip wealthier Americans before rising tax rates really weigh on US economic growth?

Quite a bit, some would argue. Despite those tax hikes, the ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256415

A trend is sweeping the nation: e-cigarettes. Will the government stem the momentum of a health craze bound to save millions of lives? AEI scholar Sally Satel discusses the benefits of e-cigarettes for both individuals and the US as a whole.

Follow AEIdeas on Twitter at @AEIdeas.

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256416

The Hill published my piece “Plan C: A Simple Fix for Fannie and Freddie” on April 7. Many people liked it, but I got an unhappy call of which the gist was: “You have given aid and comfort to the hedge funds and speculators in Fannie and Freddie’s ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256412

1.) HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is resigning, The Wall Street Journal reports: “Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, who led the government’s troubled rollout of the 2010 health-care law, will step down, her spokeswoman confirmed Thursday, capping a rocky five years in the Obama ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256411

Tell me how economic stuff works, Team Gawker:

A new report estimates that U.S. taxpayers spend more than $6 billion each year to provide government benefits to low-paid Walmart workers. The Walton family, which owns Walmart, is worth $149 billion, and is always working to pay lower taxes.

I think I’m ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256408

What’s the best way to reduce poverty and increase economic mobility?

On this episode of Ricochet’s Money & Politics Podcast, I chat with AEI’s  Robert Doar. Before joining AEI, Doar was commissioner of New York City’s Human Resources Administration, the largest local social services agency in the United States. In ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256409

AEI’s Kevin Hassett provided a pointed critique of Thomas Piketty’s new book, “Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century,” Tuesday, telling an audience at the Tax Policy Center that Piketty’s prediction of a “potentially terrifying” future, in which capitalism collapses under the weight of wealth concentration, is not grounded in economic ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256410

The March consumer inflation numbers showed prices rising faster than expected and up from last month. In the 12 months through March, consumer prices increased 1.5% versus 1.1% in February. The core CPI, which strips out the volatile energy and food bits, rose 1.7% versus 1.6% in February.

Analysis from IHS ...

April 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1256407

States can look forward to increasing financing problems as the cost of their Medicaid programs grows. That is true even if they do not expand coverage to everyone with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as called for by the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare. I ...