Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

October 29, 2014, 9:33 am, 1359806

It’s easy to be misled by absolute figures, but when assessed in proper terms, by relating exports to GDP, neither the United States nor China is a strong trading nation.

The United States leads the world in GDP, followed by China. China, in absolute terms, is number one in exports, with ...

October 29, 2014, 7:33 am, 1359724

“What day is it?”

“It’s today,” squeaked Piglet.

“My favorite day,” said Pooh.

As a proud member of the “don’t just do something, sit there” school of politics, I don’t fret much about partisanship and gridlock. Partisanship and gridlock aren’t bugs of our constitutional system, they’re features. And, while everyone likes to see ...

October 29, 2014, 1:33 am, 1359562

One of the most commonly cited numbers in discussions of inequality is the trend in median household income, often used as if it settled the issue. Using median household income poses a fundamental problem, however. It conflates two measurements — changes in the composition of households and changes in income ...

October 28, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1359377

How family structures impact economic success

Given the uncertainty of the American economy in recent years, it seems that for many families the American dream has been replaced with stagnant income, inequality, and unemployment. Yet the economy is only one part of the picture. In their new report, “

October 28, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1359304

… is from Thomas Sowell’s nationally syndicated column today “Random Thoughts“:

Too many intellectuals are too impressed with the fact that they know more than other people. Even if an intellectual knows more than anybody else, that is not the same as ...

October 28, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1359303
Poverty scholars

October 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1359230

Financial planners emphasize the importance of healthy savings for building financial security. Equally important, but less often emphasized, is that a family’s accumulation of wealth depends on the home mortgage it chooses. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are busy making plans to loosen mortgage underwriting ...

October 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1359231
Senior fellow John Bolton discusses ISIS using a British hostage as its spokesperson and the implications if the United States doesn't intervene.

October 28, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1359155

Education is not usually a topic that has a great deal of electoral salience. To wit, in Gallup’s most recent poll, while 17% of respondents found the economy to be the most pressing issue facing America today, education came in at 5%, ...

October 28, 2014, 11:33 am, 1359072

In April and again last month, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund made headlines by projecting the Chinese economy to surpass the American economy this year. The international institutions see China as attaining ...