Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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AEIdeas - Economics

October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354265

The apparent decline in US startups is bad news for two reasons. First, it means fewer potential Googles and Apples and Twitters and other high-impact businesses. Second, it also means fewer small businesses that — while they may not make their owners millions or billions — ...

October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354267

Back in 2010, there was an issue ad showing a “Chinese professor” in the year 2030 lecturing his students about America’s collapse. “Why do great nations fail?” he asked. “The ancient Greeks, the Rome Empire, the British Empire, the United States of America — they all make the same mistakes, ...

October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354266

I have written a lot about the secular decline in US entrepreneurship. As economist Ian Hathaway noted in a podcast with me:

If you look at the number of freshly launched firms in a given year and you take that as a share of all firms, that rate declined ...

October 17, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1353223

I am on the record as being dubious about the “repeal and replace” approach to Obamacare. I think the politics are formidable, to say the least. Now that does not mean I am arguing for the status quo. Far from it. Avik Roy has an impressive reform plan ...

October 17, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1353135

Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke today at a Boston Fed conference on inequality:

The extent of and continuing increase in inequality in the United States greatly concern me. The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years ...

October 17, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1353134

The world’s three largest economies are the US, China, and Japan. If you knew they had the following growth rates – +16%, +2.7%, and -3.6% — you’d probably be fairly confident in matching the economy to its growth. And the answer is: the US at +16%, Japan at +2.7%, and ...

October 17, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353057

What is the volatile stock market saying about the economy? Recall this analysis from economist Mike Darda in a post earlier this week:

If financial market turbulence is going to have broad-based macroeconomic repercussions (shocks to the money demand function not accommodated by the Fed), we would look for ...

October 17, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353058

The World Health Organization is coming under attack for failing to control the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa. While one would hope that the United Nations agency most responsible for health had responded more vigorously and with more effect, that is not the agency WHO has become. ...

October 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1352437

October marks the 20th anniversary of “The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life,” the extraordinarily influential and controversial book by AEI scholar Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein. Here, Murray answers a few questions about the predictions, controversy, and legacy of his book.

It’s been 20 years ...

October 16, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1352345

A new study published by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College concludes that reducing public pension benefits would cause an outflow of quality government employees. You can expect to see it cited as states and cities debate whether to reform their pension plans. But I think ...