September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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AEIdeas - Economics
If you dare question the alarming claims about income inequality made by progressives and Democrats, including President Obama, does that make you a “denier” — akin to climate change “deniers” — whose arguments should no longer be taken seriously?
In a recent post, “Yes, Rising Inequality is a Problem,” excellent economics ...
If your goal is to help low-income American families — rather than, say, making base-pleasing political points against businesses like Wal-Mart — then raising the minimum wage would seem to be an inferior policy compared to wage subsidies of various sorts. Economist David Neumark makes several good points on this ...
Despite optimistic sound bites from the White House about improvements to HealthCare.gov, the President’s health reform remains dysfunctional. The website now boasts that it can handle 50,000 users at a time. But HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius warns that there will still be delays and urges people to try in ...
Will the US economy bail out President Obama and the Democrats in 2014 — and maybe 2016, too — after the disastrous Obamacare rollout?
Here is political analyst Greg Valliere of Potomac Research:
Obama can give a great speech in South Africa, he can take credit for the plunging deficit and relative ...
Yup, the Great Recession was pretty bad. Median pre-tax, in-cash income — known as market income — fell more over the first three years of the Great Recession and its aftermath than over the first three years of any other recession since 1968, falling some 7%. Lower-income Americans, the bottom ...
This morning the Greek statistical agency reported that the pace of consumer price deflation in Greece has now picked up to 2.9% in November 2013. This puts Greece firmly into deflation territory, which will highly complicate the country’s efforts to engineer an economic recovery or to bring its public debt ...
US household wealth increased by $1.9 trillion to $77.3 trillion from July through September, according to new Federal Reserve data. That’s up by 2.6% from the previous three months. Of that nearly $2 trillion, $1.5 trillion came from an increase in the value of financial assets, including stocks and pension ...
Why have health care costs moderated in the last decade? Some have suggested the Great Recession alone was the cause, but health expenditure growth in the depths of the recession was nearly identical ...
The Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, under which some workers could receive benefits for up to 99 weeks, is about to expire. If it is not extended, some 1.3 million long-term unemployed workers — out of a staggering 4.1 million total long-term unemployed – will immediately lose benefits.
Why would this be a good ...
The US economy has not grown at 3% or faster, as measured by the Commerce Department, since 2005 when it grew at 3.4%. Here are the highlights of why Goldman Sachs thinks 2014 will be a year of acceleration:
1. The current level of housing starts stands well below our estimate of ...