Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Carpe Diem - AEI (Mark J. Perry)

September 2, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1538136

In 1942, economist Joseph Schumpeter described “creative destruction” as a “process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” There probably ...

September 1, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1537527

A $15 an hour minimum wage would actually hurt those it’s designed to help, like recent immigrants and other low-skilled, limited-experience workers?

From a recent op-ed in the Washington Post by Mirta Gutierrez, now the executive chef at Tortilla Coast Restaurant in Washington, DC (“A $15 minimum wage would hurt ...

August 31, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1536789

1. Chart of the Day I (above). As a result of revolutionary drilling technologies that have dramatically increased domestic production of shale oil and shale gas, America produced 89% of the domestic energy consumed this year (through May), which is the highest level ...

August 31, 2015, 11:33 am, 1536714

…. is from Frederic Jesup Stimson‘s 1910 book “Popular Law-Making: A Study of the Origin, History, and Present Tendencies of Law-Making By Statute” (emphasis added):

And now we find the first statutory origin of that utterly fallacious principle — although alive today — that the state, in ...

August 29, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1536226

While at the Minnesota State Fair yesterday, I visited the display of “drop homes” that are manufactured in Minneapolis by “Next Door Housing” (see photo above), and available for short or long term rental ($900-$1,200 per month), or for purchase (starting at about ...

August 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1535340

1. Venn Diagram of the Day (above). Does a $15 an hour minimum wage have negative employment effects of not? See related CD post from earlier today here.

2. Index Card with All the Financial ...

August 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1535191

…. is from Thomas Sowell’s May 16, 2007 column:

If you start from a belief that the most knowledgeable person on earth does not have even one percent of the total knowledge on earth, that shoots down social engineering, economic central planning, judicial activism, and innumerable other ambitious notions favored ...

August 27, 2015, 11:33 am, 1535112

Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have all recently passed $15 an hour minimum wage laws government mandated price floors that guarantee reduced employment opportunities for low skilled and limited-experience workers, especially minorities. But those $15 an hour wage mandates are getting gradually phased in over time. Depending on the size ...

August 26, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1534780

Full text of my op-ed in Thursday’s Investor Business Daily:

Despite a challenging market, the U.S. oil and gas industry is hanging tough. But our government’s inability to craft a sensible energy policy is at best handcuffing our producers and at worst threatening to reverse the gains of America’s shale revolution.

The ...

August 26, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1534705

Here’s an update to my recent post about Seattle area restaurant employment “Minimum wage effect? January to June job losses for Seattle area restaurants (-1,300) largest since Great Recession.” Local area employment data by industry was released last week for the month ...