Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Carpe Diem - AEI (Mark J. Perry)

December 19, 2014, 1:33 am, 1391880

Pictured above are some color TVs from the 627-page 1964 Sears Christmas Catalog, available here at the WishbookWeb website along with many other Christmas catalogs from 1933 to 1988. The original prices are listed ($750 for the Sears color TV console and $800 for the more expensive one), and those ...

December 17, 2014, 11:33 am, 1390797

Although that strategy didn’t work out so well for Jerry Seinfeld….

It’s that time of year for my annual post on the “deadweight loss of Christmas gift giving.”

1. Economist Steven Landsburg writing in his book the “Armchair Economist: Economics and Everyday Experience“:

 I am not ...

December 16, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1390385

Last summer when oil prices rose by 5% during a three-week period in June partly due to instability in Iraq, Sen. Bernie Sanders once again blamed greedy energy-market traders for the rise in prices and introduced legislation in the first week of July that would allow the government to intervene ...

December 16, 2014, 1:33 am, 1389706

1. Chart of the Day. Medallion Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: TAXI) is a NYC-based specialty finance company that originates, acquires, and services loans that finance taxicab medallions. As I’ve been reporting for the last year, the traditional NYC “taxi cartel,” which has operated for generations under a government-protected cartel regime ...

December 12, 2014, 11:33 am, 1388178

Trigger Warning: If you are upset by facts about campus sexual assault please stop reading now.

The Department of Justice (Bureau of Justice Statistics) released a report yesterday titled “Rape and Sexual Assault Victimization Among College-Age Females, 1995–2013.”  The report was based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) of ...

December 11, 2014, 1:33 am, 1387129

1. Chart of the Day I. US oil output continues to surge and last week domestic crude production topped 9.1 million barrels per day, the highest output since February 1986.

2. Chart of the Day II. The combined oil production in America’s three ...

December 9, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1386321

1. Chart of the Day I. Through October of this year, net petroleum imports as a share of products supplied fell to 27.1%, the lowest level of dependence on foreign sources of petroleum in more than 40 years, going all the way back to 1971 (see chart above). For that ...

December 9, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1386124

According to a TV election ad in 2012, “President Obama knows that women being paid 77 cents on the dollar for doing the same work as men isn’t just unfair, it hurts families.” Do the data support the president’s claim? Not at all.

For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ...

December 8, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1385565

Below are summaries of three research papers on the negative effects of increases in the minimum wage — the first one finds empirical evidence of negative employment effects from increases in the minimum wage between 2008 and 2012 (negative demand side effects), and the other two find negative effects of ...

December 8, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1385463

1. Uber Updates: a)  In just one year, Uber has gone from operating in 60 cities to 250, and from 21 countries to 50, b) Next year, Uber will generate more than 1 million jobs in cities around the world and with that level of global expansion, millions ...