May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Carpe Diem - AEI (Mark J. Perry)
In this parody video from Funny or Die (embedding disabled, so I can only provide a link) Mary Poppins (Kristen Bell) is working for minimum wage, and really needs a $3 per hour raise to make a “living wage.” Although she also complains that after paying government-mandated federal and ...
From my op-ed in Friday’s Investor’s Business Daily “There’s a US Energy Boom, No Thanks to Obama“:
It would be easy to look at the dramatic 35% increase in America’s oil and natural gas production since President Obama took office ...
The chart above shows the Google trends or “Interest Over Time” trends from 2004-present for the terms “peak oil” and “fracking.” Note that “peak oil” peaked in August 2005, just about the same time that “fracking” started revolutionizing oil production in the US.
…. is from Burton Malkiel writing in “The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success“:
It’s true that when you buy an index fund, you give up the chance to boast at the golf course that you picked the best performing stock or mutual fund. That’s ...
… is from Karr Ingham, economist for the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, from a recent presentation in Houston where he predicted that crude oil production in Texas will surpass its 1972 all-time high within two years:
When oil companies get richer, they don’t pocket their money. They invest ...
John Stossel’s column this week is called “Policing America,” and he points to the fact that violent crime in America peaked in 1991 at 758.2 crimes per 100,000 population, and has consistently fallen in almost every year since then. ...
In an interesting article that is forthcoming in the next issue of Economic Affairs, Vincent Geloso (Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics) presents an interesting defense of “ticket scalping,” arguing that it can provide an effective form of risk management and greater certainty of profits for artists, concert ...