Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Carpe Diem - AEI (Mark J. Perry)

July 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306185

In this parody video from Funny or Die (embedding disabled, so I can only provide a link) Mary Poppins (Kristen Bell) is working for minimum wage, and really needs a $3 per hour raise to make a “living wage.” Although she also complains that after paying government-mandated federal and ...

July 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306184

From my op-ed in Friday’s Investor’s Business Daily “There’s a US Energy Boom, No Thanks to Obama“:

It would be easy to look at the dramatic 35% increase in America’s oil and natural gas production since President Obama took office ...

July 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306183

July 27, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306182

The chart above shows the Google trends or “Interest Over Time” trends from 2004-present for the terms “peak oil” and “fracking.” Note that “peak oil” peaked in August 2005, just about the same time that “fracking” started revolutionizing oil production in the US.

HT: Hitssquad

July 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1305951

…. is from Burton Malkiel writing in “The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success“:

It’s true that when you buy an index fund, you give up the chance to boast at the golf course that you picked the best performing stock or mutual fund. That’s ...

July 25, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1305596

… is from Karr Ingham, economist for the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, from a recent presentation in Houston where he predicted that crude oil production in Texas will surpass its 1972 all-time high within two years:

When oil companies get richer, they don’t pocket their money. They invest ...

July 24, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1305000

Both Sean Davis and Ben Domenech at the web magazine The Federalist have used the chart above in their recent posts about food inflation here and here. As the title of the chart implies, Davis ...

July 24, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1304820

John Stossel’s column this week is called “Policing America,” and he points to the fact that violent crime in America peaked in 1991 at 758.2 crimes per 100,000 population, and has consistently fallen in almost every year since then. ...

July 24, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1304819

In an interesting article that is forthcoming in the next issue of Economic Affairs, Vincent Geloso (Ph.D. candidate at the London School of Economics) presents an interesting defense of “ticket scalping,” arguing that it can provide an effective form of risk management and greater certainty of profits for artists, concert ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303976

Updated: The chart above shows the percent changes between January 2000 and June 2014 for: a) Average Hourly Earnings (blue line), b) the CPI for Food and Beverages (red line) and c) the CPI for ...