Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Moneyness (JP Koning)

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1304014
Milton Friedman's alleged license plate, showing the equation of exchange
The excruciatingly large revisions that U.S. first quarter GDP growth underwent from the BEA's ...

July 3, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1296723

I'm going on holiday and don't have ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295881
2010 Bank of England note signed by Andrew Bailey, former Chief Cashier of the Bank.
A few years ago, Peter Stella and Åke ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295882
An evaporation in liquidity. September 13, 2012, at 12:25:27 to ~12:32 PM, eMini contract. From Nanex.
Steve Roth, who blogs at

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295880
The Cider Mill, by Robin Moline
In general, the real price of land has been increasing all over the world, ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295878
A page from Van Court's Bank Note Reporter and Counterfeit Detector (1843), showing multiple prices for various dollars. Notation: do=ditto, same as above ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295876
Jeremiah, the prophet of impending disaster. By Rembrandt, 1690. See full version.
The 1929 analog model has resurfaced.

The 1929 analog is ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295877

Despite its odd denomination, the above is a genuine banknote. Ne Win, Burma's military dictator from 1962 to 1988 and the man pictured in the note, was convinced that his lucky number was nine. ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295879
I'm going to use a stock market analogy to work out the costs of manufacturing liquidity premia.

In addition to paying dividends and providing price appreciation, stocks provide an amenity flow ...

June 29, 2014, 11:33 am, 1292887

You may know by now that the final revision of U.S. first quarter GDP revealed a shocking 2.9% decline while its mirror image, gross domestic income (GDI), was off by 2.6%.

As Scott Sumner has ...