Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Moneyness (JP Koning)

February 26, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1430011

The Swedes really don't like cash. First, consider that Sweden is the only country in the world that I'm aware of where reliance on paper money is in decline. Second, no country's central bank has produced a ...

February 17, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1423910

For lazy central bankers, this post describes three lite strategies for getting interest rates below the zero lower bound. Rather than requiring drastic action, these methods can be quickly deployed without having to ...

February 12, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1421380

Canada trails the ...

February 1, 2015, 1:33 am, 1413931

The price of bitcoin is a capricious thing. Imagine that you've saved enough bitcoin to take your significant other out to a fancy restaurant. When the bill comes you discover to ...

January 24, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1409359

The upcoming Greek election has renewed interest in the idea of Grexit. This option is often presented to the Greek public as desirable given ...

January 21, 2015, 10:25 am, 1407356
Swiss National Bank share certificates
Gavyn Davies blames the Swiss National Bank's corporate structure for the floating of the Swiss franc. Paul Krugman intimates ...

January 16, 2015, 11:33 am, 1405758

Two things worth noting:
As many of you know by now, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Switzerland's central bank, just reduced the rate that banks earn on deposits held at the SNB by half ...

January 4, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1398609
Shibboleth, by Doris Scalcedo
John Cochrane writes an interesting post that makes the case that removing or penalizing cash would not ...

January 1, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1397677

David Beckworth had a very interesting pair of posts outlining how QE would only have had a meaningful effect on the economy if the associated monetary base growth was permanent.

One addendum ...

December 28, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1395631
Robin Hood, N.C. Wyeth, 1917
There were plenty of reports in the press this year accusing central banks of behaving like King John, stealing from ...