Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Moneyness (JP Koning)


May 20, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1638512

Remember all the hoopla about Japanese buying safety deposit boxes to hold cash in response to the Bank of Japan's decision to set negative rates? Here is ...


May 16, 2016, 9:34 am, 1636881
COINING IN PARIS c. 1500 (From a French print c. 1755)
Not all debasements, or reductions ...


May 6, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1633872


What's the main difference between our modern monetary system and the system they had in the medieval ages? Most of you will probably answer something along the lines ...


April 26, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1630104

Canadians will all know what Canadian Tire Money is, but American and overseas readers might not. Canadian Tire, one of Canada's largest retailers, defies easy categorization, selling everything from tents to lawn furniture to hockey ...


April 20, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1628471


Imagine waking up in the morning and checking the hockey scores, news, the weather, and how much the central bank has adjusted the gold content of the dollar overnight. This ...


April 9, 2016, 9:34 pm, 1625236
Blair Ferguson. Source: Bank of Canada
Passive investing is eating Wall Street. According to 2015 Morningstar data, while actively managed mutual ...


March 30, 2016, 11:34 am, 1622287


When I think of senseless waste, I think of the Battle of the Somme. Whole generations lost in
order to move a trench line forward by a metre or two. Zoom forward ...


March 24, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1620826


Would it make sense for firms to try to slow down their equity structure?

Equity markets are made of two classes of participants. ...


March 14, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1617762

Remember when shadow banks regularly outcompeted stodgy regulated banks because they could evade onerous regulatory requirements? Not any more. In negative rate land, regulatory requirements are a blessing for banks. Shadow banks want ...


March 1, 2016, 11:34 pm, 1613978


Have Swiss interest rates fallen so low that the public is finally bolting into cash? The Wall Street Journal and Zero Hedge think so. They both point to big ...