Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Moneyness (JP Koning)


December 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1392165

Marc Faber is a very knowledgeable guy, but thumbing through a copy of his most recent Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report, I stumbled on a pretty big error. Here ...


December 12, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1388495

Jacob Little, legendary short seller.
The Great Bear of Wall Street
1794 - 186This is a guest post by ...


December 7, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1384853

On a recent trip to Ottawa, I stopped by the Bank of Canada. The door was locked and the building empty. Odd, I thought, why would the Bank be closed in the middle ...


November 29, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1379629

While I may have taken some jabs at the gold bugs in two recent posts, please don't take that to mean that I have it in for ...


November 23, 2014, 11:33 am, 1376491
The price of 52 Samsung TVs gathered by the BPP, April 2008 - November 2009 (Cavallo)
In a previous post, I mentioned that the ...


November 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1372133

Does a lowering of a central bank's interest rates create inflation or deflation? Dubbed the 'Sign Wars' by Nick Rowe, this has been a recurring debate in the economics blogosphere ...


November 4, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1364445


This blog wouldn't be around if it wasn't for gold bugs.

Many moons ago my former-employer (and friend), the truest gold bug you'd ever meet, would lecture everyone in the office ...


October 28, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1359499


There are thousands of fears, from arachnophobia to globophobia (fear of balloons) to zoophobia (fear of animals). What might the fear of market illiquidity look like?

Say that you are petrified that a ...


October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353712

Recent posts by Adrian Hope Baille and Sina Motamedi have got me thinking again about the idea of the Federal Reserve (or any other central bank for ...


October 12, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1349811


I gave myself a quick whiff this week to determine if I pass the market monetarist smell test. This is by no means definitive, nor is this an officially administered MM® test.