Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Moneyness (JP Koning)

April 13, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1254959

This is a follow up to my previous post on the monetary effects of credit cards. In this post I'll explore the idea that the use of credit cards in payments is driving a ...

April 8, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1252677

This is a guest post by Mike Sproul. Many of you may know Mike from his comments on this blog and other economics blogs. I first encountered Mike at the website back ...

April 4, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1251184

It's the Roe v Wade of the blogosphere, a battle that never quite gets resolved. Nick Rowe and David Glasner have been having one of their bi-annual debates over the ability of private ...

March 30, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1248182

A few weeks ago I claimed that the so-called value premium was really just a liquidity premium. The value premium, illustrated best by the HML, or high-minus-low strategy (shorting stocks that have high price-to-book ...

March 23, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1244848

In a previous post, I made the point that banknotes aren't Samuelsonian bubble assets, say like a chain letter or a ponzi scheme or bitcoin. Upon the dismantling of a central bank, each ...

March 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1241319
What is this gas station using as a medium of account? Visa/Mastercard dollars or Federal Reserve dollars?
In this post I'll argue that in ...

March 7, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1237350
 The "High minus low" strategy: Source 
If you haven't read Clifford Asness and John Liew's recent article on market efficiency, you should. ...

March 1, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1233706
Jeremiah, the prophet of impending disaster. By Rembrandt, 1690. See full version.
The 1929 analog model has resurfaced.

The 1929 analog is ...

February 23, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1229858

Despite its odd denomination, the above is a genuine banknote. Ne Win, Burma's military dictator from 1962 to 1988 and the man pictured in the note, was convinced that his lucky number was nine. ...

February 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1226858
A page from  Van Court's Bank Note Reporter and Counterfeit Detector (1843), showing multiple prices for dollars 
For the past year or so, ...