Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Moneyness (JP Koning)


August 26, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1534547

Recent market action is a good reminder of the asymmetry in markets. In general, stock market rises don't look like stock market declines. Stock ...


August 12, 2015, 11:33 am, 1527167

It's been a while since I blogged about Canadian monetary policy, but Luke Kawa's recent tweet on the topic of Canada's effective lower bound got me thinking.


August 3, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1521095
1934 Chinese silver dollar with Sun Yat-sen
I have been hitting me head against the wall these last few weeks trying to understand Chinese monetary policy, ...


July 24, 2015, 11:33 am, 1515139

Of all the axioms of utility theory, the completeness axiom is perhaps the most questionable.- Robert Aumann, Nobel Prize Winner
We keep a well-stocked wallet in our ...


July 17, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1511368

The whippersnappers who work in the cryptocurrency domain are moving incredibly fast.

As I've been saying for a while, assets like bitcoin (or stocks) are unlikely to become popular as exchange media; ...


July 10, 2015, 11:33 am, 1506950

I catch both Lars Christensen and Brad DeLong making the claim that an introduction of the drachma will work wonders for Greece. Lars, for instance, says that:

However, Grexit will also remove the monetary straitjacket, ...


July 7, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1505301


Statistical agencies employ data collectors who walk up and down aisles with hand-held computers gathering sticker prices for things like frozen french fries and bicycles. The data they ...


July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503349


Here's an interesting fact. Remember all those worthless Zimbabwe paper banknotes? The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), Zimbabwe's central bank, is officially buying them back for cancellation. According to its recent monetary policy ...


July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503347
Here's a conundrum. Many commentators have been trying to puzzle out why stocks have been continually hitting new highs at the same time that bond yields have been hitting new ...


July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503348

Central bankers are usually classified as either hawks or doves. This post is devoted to a third and rare breed; today's monetary policy canaries. Having taken their respective deposit rates to ...