Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


December 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1392164
Michael Gedal, Stephanie Rosoff, and Joelle Scally

The New York Fed has released a new product—the Household Debt and Credit Report for the Second District—which tracks consumer credit conditions in the tri-state area. Our readers are already familiar with our Quarterly Report on ...


December 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1392028
Megan Cohen



From 1793 until 1861, when the U. S. Treasury Department was given exclusive rights to produce legal ...


December 8, 2014, 7:33 am, 1385074
Jan Groen

Global asset market developments during the summer of 2013 have been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, starting with former Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning future curtailing of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs. A previous ...


December 5, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1384131
Richard Crump, Emanuel Moench, William O'Boyle, Matthew Raskin, Carlo Rosa, and Lisa Stowe

First in a two-part series Market expectations of the path of future policy rates can have important implications for financial markets and the economy. Because interest rate derivatives enable market participants to hedge against ...


December 5, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1384130
Richard Crump, Emanuel Moench, William O'Boyle, Matthew Raskin, Carlo Rosa, and Lisa Stowe



December 5, 2014, 7:33 am, 1383886
James Narron, David Skeie, and Don Morgan





As we noted in our last post on the British ...


December 3, 2014, 9:33 am, 1382003
Amy Farber

Does the Federal Reserve or the government care about pocketbooks? Not literally pocketbooks (except perhaps for the ...


December 3, 2014, 9:33 am, 1382002
Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin


First in a three-part series There has been some debate ...


December 3, 2014, 9:33 am, 1382000
Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin

Third in a three-part series This is the third in a series of blog posts on the topic of measuring labor market slack. In this post, we assess the relationships between short- and long-term unemployment ...


December 3, 2014, 9:33 am, 1382001
Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin

Second in a three-part series In this second post in our series on measuring labor market slack, we analyze the labor market outcomes of long-term unemployed workers to assess their employability and labor force attachment. ...