Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


May 20, 2015, 7:33 am, 1477706
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith

Second post in the series In a recent series of blog posts, the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Ben Bernanke, has asked the question: “Why are interest rates so low?” (See


May 18, 2015, 9:33 am, 1476270
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith

First in a two-part series
There are various types of economic forecasts, such as judgmental forecasts or model-based forecasts. In this post, we provide an update of the economic forecasts implied by ...


May 18, 2015, 7:33 am, 1476185
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith

First in a two-part series
There are various types of economic forecasts, such as judgmental forecasts or model-based forecasts. In this post, we provide an update of the economic forecasts implied by ...


May 15, 2015, 11:33 am, 1475224
Jonathan McCarthy, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich




Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory ...


May 15, 2015, 7:33 am, 1475065
Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz




With the college graduation season well under way, a new crop of freshly minted graduates is entering the job market ...


May 13, 2015, 7:33 am, 1473598
Antoine Martin and Susan McLaughlin

Second in a two-part series In our earlier post, we described how the tri-party repo arrangement was a clever way to reduce the costs and risks that individual firms faced when settling bilateral repos. In this post, we explain how the ...


May 12, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1473008
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw



Today’s release of the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2015 ...


May 11, 2015, 7:33 am, 1471897
Antoine Martin and Susan McLaughlin

First in a two-part seriesThe conventional wisdom about financial innovation is that it is typically undertaken as a way to increase profits. However, financial innovation can also occur as a response to the need to reduce risk. Tri-party repo is an ...


May 8, 2015, 7:33 am, 1470157
Thomas Klitgaard and James Narron




President Andrew Jackson was a "hard money" man. He saw specie—that is, gold and silver—as real money, and considered paper money a ...


May 7, 2015, 9:33 am, 1469532
Anna Snider

Each year, the manager of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) submits an accounting of open market operations and other developments influencing the composition and performance of the Fed’s balance sheet to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

This year’s report,