Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


March 30, 2015, 7:33 am, 1447518
Jennie Bai and Or Shachar

Since their inception in 2002, credit default swap (CDS) indexes have gained tremendous popularity and become leading barometers of the credit market. Today, investors who want to hedge credit risk or to speculate can choose from a broad menu of ...


March 27, 2015, 11:33 am, 1446491
Luis Armona, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today released results from its February 2015 Survey of Consumer Expectations Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit ...


March 25, 2015, 7:33 am, 1444940
Marco Del Negro, Raiden Hasegawa, and Frank Schorfheide



Second in a two-part series
As an economist, you make policy recommendations at any point in time that depend on what model of ...


March 23, 2015, 7:33 am, 1443634
Marco Del Negro, Raiden Hasegawa, and Frank Schorfheide

First in a two-part series
Model uncertainty is pervasive. Economists, bloggers, policymakers all have different views of how the world works and what economic policies would make it better. These views are, like it or not, models. Some ...


March 20, 2015, 7:33 am, 1442610
Jason Bram and James Orr



Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment ...


March 11, 2015, 7:33 am, 1437314
Anna Snider

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s release on Wednesday of 2015 bank stress tests results, we’ve seen a spike in traffic to a piece in our archive that offers a primer on the annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) process and background on its role ...


March 9, 2015, 7:33 am, 1435861
Marco Cipriani and Antonio Guarino

Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical literature has identified ...


March 6, 2015, 11:33 am, 1434863
Ravi Bhalla and Rajashri Chakrabarti

This morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a set of interactive visuals that present school spending and its various components—such as instructional spending, instructional support, leadership support, and building services spending—across all thirty-two Community School Districts (CSD) ...


March 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1434291
The Editors

Recent news of banks scaling back on the issuance of car loans to borrowers with a weak credit history, coupled with recent media investigations into auto lending fraud, have drawn renewed attention to a surge in subprime auto lending. That boom ...


March 4, 2015, 7:33 am, 1433200
Friederike Niepmann and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

World trade fell 20 percent relative to world GDP in 2008 and 2009. Since then, there has been much debate about the role of trade finance in the Great Trade Collapse. Distress in the financial sector can have a strong impact ...