Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


July 2, 2015, 7:33 am, 1500523
Mary Amiti, Tyler Bodine-Smith, Michele Cavallo, and Logan Lewis


July 1, 2015, 7:33 am, 1499862
Gara Afonso and Joo Santos



Second in a two-part series In our previous post, we concluded that, in rating agencies’ views, there is no clear consensus ...


June 29, 2015, 7:33 am, 1498484
Gara Afonso and João Santos



First in a two-part series
Did the Dodd-Frank Act end ‘‘too-big-to-fail’’ (TBTF)? In this series of two posts, we look at ...


June 26, 2015, 7:33 am, 1497394
Anna Snider

Recent news and market analysis has featured a spate of warnings about diminished liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market and reminders of how quickly markets can seize. It’s a topic we’ve addressed on our blog with an investigation of the


June 24, 2015, 7:33 am, 1496109
Thomas Klitgaard and Patrick Russo



The rise in oil prices from near $30 per barrel in 2000 to around $110 per barrel in mid-2014 was a dramatic reallocation of global income to ...


June 22, 2015, 11:33 am, 1494977
Robert Rich




The Research Function at the New York Fed would like to announce the publication of U.S. Economy in a Snapshot. This new monthly packet combines charts and summary ...


June 22, 2015, 7:33 am, 1494842
Rajlakshmi De and Hamid Mehran



Size is usually seen as the leading indication of the costs that a bank failure would impose on society. As a result, the Dodd-Frank Act ...


June 8, 2015, 7:33 am, 1487510
Jan Groen and Patrick Russo



Oil prices have declined substantially since the summer of 2014. If these price declines reflect demand shocks, then this would suggest a slowdown in global economic activity. ...


June 8, 2015, 7:33 am, 1487509
Jan Groen and Patrick Russo



The current policy debate is influenced by the possibility that the first-quarter GDP data were affected by “residual seasonality.” That is, the statistical procedures used by the Bureau ...


June 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1486500
James Narron and Don Morgan



Money was plentiful in the United Kingdom in 1842, and with low yields on government bonds and railway shares paying handsome dividends, the desire to speculate spread—as one ...