Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


August 22, 2016, 7:34 am, 1666443
Olivier Armantier, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar



The New York Fed started releasing results from its ...


August 19, 2016, 7:34 am, 1665875
Amy Farber



In 1970, New Britain Bank and Trust (inactive as of 1984) ran a television advertisement that starred a real-life bank robber touting a safety feature of its ...


August 18, 2016, 11:34 am, 1665606
Jaison R. Abel, Jaison Bram, and Richard Deitz




At today’s economic press ...


August 17, 2016, 7:34 am, 1665149
Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Jake Schurmeier, and Emma Weiss



The Federal ...


August 16, 2016, 9:34 am, 1664819
Jason Bram and Richard Deitz

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York this morning released the results of its August 2016 business surveys, including the supplemental survey report on health coverage costs and the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on ...


August 15, 2016, 7:34 am, 1664354
Richard Crump and Stefano Eusepi



What can disagreement teach us about how private forecasters perceive the conduct of monetary ...


August 12, 2016, 7:34 am, 1663795
Meta Brown, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, MagaliSolimano, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

Debt and its performance play a critical role in economic development. The enormous increase in mortgage debt that took place during the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis and the contribution of that ...


August 11, 2016, 7:34 am, 1663383
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Giacomo De Giorgi, and Rachel Schuh



Educational attainment is an important element of human capital; however a ...


August 10, 2016, 7:34 am, 1662972
Jason Bram and Harry Wheeler

A key concern about Puerto Rico’s prospects is that its labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the adult population either working or looking for work, has fallen sharply. Looking at the data shows that this decline cannot be attributed ...


August 9, 2016, 11:34 am, 1662613
Graham Campbell, Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw