Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


August 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1322907

Marja Vitti



We’ve already talked about clams being used as money as late as 1933, but some genuine clam shells found during the construction of the New York Fed’s building at 33 Liberty Street sparked both geological interest and many witty remarks ...


August 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1321587
Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui

The United States has been borrowing from the rest of the world since the mid-1980s. From 2000 to 2008, this borrowing averaged over $600billion per year, which translates into U.S. spending exceeding income by almost 5.0percent of GDP. Borrowing fell during the recent ...


August 18, 2014, 9:33 am, 1320306
Jason Bram and Michael Kubiske

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly surveys of manufacturers and service-sector firms include special supplementary questions on topics of interest. The August survey questions focused on the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on businesses in ...


August 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1320222
Marco Cipriani, Antoine Martin, Patrick McCabe, and Bruno M. Parigi

In the academic literature on banks, “suspension of convertibility”—that is, preventing the exchange of deposits at par for cash—has traditionally been seen as a potential means of preventing economically damaging bank runs. In this post, however, we show ...


August 15, 2014, 7:33 am, 1319077
Amy Farber

Caricatures of Alan Greenspan and Warren Buffett in the National Portrait Gallery? Are we hearing correctly? ...


August 14, 2014, 11:33 am, 1318522
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle W. Scally, and
Wilbert van der Klaauw

Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2014. Aggregate debt was relatively flat in the second quarter as housing-related debt ...


August 13, 2014, 7:33 am, 1317669
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Raiden Hasegawa, and FrankSchorfheide

GDP contracted 4percent from 2008:Q2 to 2009:Q2, and the unemployment rate peaked at 10percent in October2010. Traditional backward-looking Phillips curve models of inflation, which relate inflation to measures of “slack” in activity and past measures of inflation, would ...


August 11, 2014, 7:33 am, 1316020
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Raiden Hasegawa, and FrankSchorfheide

Since the financial crisis of 2007-08 and the Great Recession, many commentators have been baffled by the “missing deflation” in the face of a large and persistent amount of slack in the economy. Some prominent academics have argued ...


August 8, 2014, 7:33 am, 1314604
James Narron, David Skeie, and Don Morgan

With intermittent war raging across much of Western Europe near the end of the eighteenth century, by about 1795, Hamburg had replaced Amsterdam as an important hub for commodities trade. And from 1795 to 1799, Hamburg boomed. Prices for goods increased, ...


August 6, 2014, 7:33 am, 1312915
Jonathan McCarthy

One contributor to the subdued pace of economic growth in this expansion has been consumer spending. Even though consumption growth has been somewhat stronger in the past couple of quarters, it has still been weak in this expansion relative to previous expansions. This post concentrates on ...