Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 

October 24, 2014, 7:33 am, 1357035
Moreno Bertoldi, Philip R. Lane, Paolo Pesenti, and ValĂ©rie Rouxel-Laxton

The reason why the macroeconomic policy mix has been different ...

October 20, 2014, 7:33 am, 1353942
Adam Copeland and Ira Selig

Tri-party repo is popular among securities dealers as a way to raise short-term funding. The tri-party repo settlement process has been improved, and continues to be improved, with the implementation of a set of recent reforms. Two main goals of ...

October 17, 2014, 7:33 am, 1352843
Jason Bram

Ever since the first census of the U.S. population was taken, back in 1790, New York City has been the nation’s largest city, and for most of this time by a factor of more than two. But how has the city—in particular, the city’s boundaries—evolved ...

October 15, 2014, 7:33 am, 1351438
Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Tara Rice

The recent financial crisis underscored the importance of understanding how liquidity conditions for banks (or other financial institutions) influence the banks’ lending to domestic and foreign customers. Our recent research examines the domestic and international lending responses to ...

October 10, 2014, 7:33 am, 1349016
Amy Farber

In a May 2014 Historical Echoes post, Marja Vitti describes what happened to money ...

October 8, 2014, 7:33 am, 1347759
Thomas Klitgaard and Preston Mui

Japan’s population is shrinking and getting older, with the population falling at a 0.2 percent ...

October 6, 2014, 7:33 am, 1346540
Fernando Duarte, Juan Navarro-Staicos, and Carlo Rosa

Volatility, a measure of how much financial markets are fluctuating, has been near its record low in many asset classes. Over the last few decades, there have been only two other periods of similarly low volatility: in May 2013, and ...

October 3, 2014, 7:33 am, 1345460
Jim Narron and Don Morgan

In 1815, England emerged victorious after what had been nearly a quarter century of war with France. And during those years, encouraged by high prices and profits, England greatly expanded its agricultural and industrial capacity in terms of land and new machinery, ...

October 1, 2014, 7:33 am, 1344280
Claudia M. Buch, James Chapman, and Linda Goldberg

Over the past thirty years, the typical large bank has become a global entity with subsidiaries in many countries. In parallel, financial liberalization has increased the interconnectedness of banking systems, with domestic banking systems becoming more exposed to ...

September 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1343610
Fatih Karahan, Samuel Kapon, and Kaivan K. Sattar

Job openings are arguably one of the most important indicators of recovery in the labor market, as they reflect employers’ willingness to hire. The number of job openings has recovered steadily since the recession, yet through the end of ...