Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


September 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1343610
Fatih Karahan, Samuel Kapon, and Kaivan K. Sattar

Job openings are arguably one of the most important indicators of recovery in the labor market, as they reflect employers’ willingness to hire. The number of job openings has recovered steadily since the recession, yet through the end of ...


September 29, 2014, 7:33 am, 1342834
Kenneth D. Garbade

From time to time, and most recently in the April 2014 meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, U.S. Treasury officials have questioned whether the Treasury should have a safety net that would allow it to continue to meet its obligations even in the event of ...


September 26, 2014, 11:33 am, 1341833
Matthew Cocci, Marco Del Negro, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Sara Shahanaghi

Fifth in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. ...


September 25, 2014, 7:33 am, 1341059
Matthew Cocci, Marco Del Negro, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, and Sara Shahanaghi

Fourth in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. ...


September 25, 2014, 7:33 am, 1341058
Richard Crump, Troy Davig, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench

People disagree, and so do the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). How much do they disagree? Why do they disagree? We look at the FOMC’s projections of the federal funds rate (FFR) and other variables ...


September 24, 2014, 7:33 am, 1340367
Andrea Tambalotti and Argia Sbordone

Third in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. economy and provide economic forecasts. The severe recession ...


September 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339687
Bianca De Paoli, Argia Sbordone, and Andrea Tambalotti

Second in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings of the U.S. economy and provide ...


September 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1339017
Marco Del Negro, Bianca De Paoli, Stefano Eusepi, Marc Giannoni, Argia Sbordone, and Andrea Tambalotti

First in a five-part series This series examines the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (FRBNY DSGE) model—a structural model used by Bank researchers to understand the workings ...


September 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1337837
Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow

In June 2014, settlement fails of U.S. Treasury securities reached their highest level since the implementation of the Treasury fails charge in May 2009, attracting significant attention from market participants. In this post, we review what fails ...


September 19, 2014, 7:33 am, 1337836
Michael Fleming, Frank Keane, Antoine Martin, and Michael McMorrow

In June of this year—as we noted in the preceding post—settlement fails in U.S. Treasury securities spiked to their highest level since the implementation of the fails charge in May 2009. Our first ...