Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


September 27, 2017, 7:25 am, 1779881
Laura Lipscomb, Antoine Martin, and Heather Wiggins



In a previous post, we described some reasons why it ...


September 26, 2017, 7:05 am, 1779411
Kenneth Garbade, Frank Keane, and Radhika Mithal



The Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG) was ...


September 25, 2017, 7:05 am, 1779038
Laura Lipscomb, Antoine Martin, and Heather Wiggins

The Federal Reserve has paid interest on reserves held by banks in their Fed accounts since 2008. Why should it do so? Here, we describe some benefits of paying interest on required reserve balances. Since forcing banks to hold unremunerated ...


September 22, 2017, 7:25 am, 1778262
Robert Rich



Today marks the launch of the monthly publication of the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG). We are reporting two ...


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775815
Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, and Richard Deitz



The New York-Northern New Jersey region ...


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775814

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and WilbertvanderKlaauw


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775811
John J. Conlon, Gizem Kosar, Giorgio Topa, and Basit Zafar



The New York Fed for the first time released its Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Labor Market Survey which focuses ...


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775813
Helene Lee and Asani Sarkar

Editor’s note: When this post was first published there was an omission in text; text has been restored. (August 16, 2017, 9:05 a.m.)


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775812


This week, four Ph.D. students in economics and finance are wrapping up their summer internships at the New York Fed’s Research Department. The ten-week internships—which are compensated—offer interns the opportunity to further their dissertation research, ...


September 14, 2017, 7:45 pm, 1775808
Michael Cai, Marc Giannoni, Abhi Gupta, Pearl Li, and Argia Sbordone

This post presents our quarterly update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since May ...