Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 

May 25, 2016, 7:33 am, 1639637
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Micah Smith

Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find ...

May 24, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1639404
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

May 23, 2016, 7:34 am, 1638923
Stefano Eusepi, Erica Moszkowski, and Argia Sbordone

The May 2016 forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model remains broadly in line with those of our two previous semiannual reports (see our May 2015 and

May 20, 2016, 7:33 am, 1638353
Amy Farber

J.K. Rowling, David Byrne, Eric Idle—In recent years, these captivating figures have delivered commencement addresses at Harvard, Columbia University and Whitman College, respectively. Of course, Federal Reserve chairs give commencement speeches ...

May 19, 2016, 11:34 am, 1638046
Robert Rich

Monitoring ...

May 18, 2016, 7:33 am, 1637592
Ozge Akinci

In recent years, policymakers in advanced and emerging economies have employed a variety of macroprudential policy tools—targeted rules or requirements ...

May 16, 2016, 7:33 am, 1636835
Sooji Kim, Matthew Plosser, and João Santos

Financial regulatory agencies issued guidance intended to curtail leveraged lending—loans to ...

May 13, 2016, 7:33 am, 1636246
Thomas Klitgaard and James Narron

In the late 1800s, a surge in ...

May 11, 2016, 7:33 am, 1635492
Giacomo De Giorgi and Nicole Dussault

Commonly used metrics of inequality and mobility attempt to capture how household (or individual) income compares to the rest of the ...

May 9, 2016, 7:33 am, 1634593
Thomas Klitgaard and Harry Wheeler

China lends to the rest of the world because it saves much more than it needs to fund its high level of physical investment spending. For years, the public sector accounted for this lending through the Chinese central bank’s purchase of foreign assets, but ...