Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


January 16, 2015, 9:33 am, 1405675
Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, and Richard Deitz

The New York Fed’s January Business Leaders Survey indicates that the regional economy kicked off the New Year on a positive note. This monthly survey—which covers firms in the service sector in New York State, northern New ...


January 16, 2015, 7:33 am, 1405596
Amy Farber



Did’ya ever notice how silly those Historical Echoes posts can get? Andy Rooney passed in November 2011 ...


January 14, 2015, 7:33 am, 1404187
Ezechiel Copic, Luis Gonzalez, Caitlin Gorback, Blake Gwinn, and Ernst Schaumburg

On January 29, 2014, the U.S. Treasury held its first auction of a two-year floating-rate note (FRN), which pays a fixed spread over the floating thirteen-week bill rate rather than a fixed coupon. In this post, ...


January 12, 2015, 7:33 am, 1402698
Nicola Cetorelli

A successful hybrid is an offspring of two species that, in a new environment, is better suited for survival than its own parents. Evolution in the financial “ecosystem” seems to have driven the emergence of hybrid intermediaries.

In several previous posts, ...


January 9, 2015, 7:33 am, 1401554
Amy Farber




Metaphors, similes, analogies—we know they’re not the same thing, but they can do pretty much the same job ...


January 7, 2015, 7:33 am, 1400131
Matthew Ploenzke, Robert Rich, and Joseph Tracy



Uncertainty is of considerable interest for understanding the behavior of individuals as well as ...


January 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1398778
David Lucca, Amit Seru, and Francesco Trebbi

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, job transitions of personnel in banking supervision and regulation between the public and private sectors—often labeled the revolving door—have come under intense scrutiny and have been blamed by certain economists (


January 2, 2015, 11:33 am, 1397936
Megan Cohen

On June 24, 1968, thousands of people swarmed assay offices in the United States, anxious to unload their holdings of silver certificates. The U.S. Treasury had deemed this the final date on which the certificates could be exchanged for silver bullion. ...


December 29, 2014, 7:33 am, 1395829
Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, David Lucca, and Emanuel Moench

The growth rate in real gross domestic product (GDP) is a conventional indicator of the economy’s health. But the two ways of measuring annual GDP growth can give very different answers. In 2013, GDP grew 2.2percent on ...


December 22, 2014, 7:33 am, 1393029
Or Shachar

Last year, IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) launched a credit default swap index futures contract. In the first two weeks there were spurts of interest in it, but soon it became evident that the new product was unable to generate sufficient demand. Given their short life span ...