Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 


April 17, 2015, 7:33 am, 1457047
Andrew Haughwout



On Tuesday, April 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York hosted an all-day workshop entitled Chapter 9 and Alternatives for Distressed Municipalities and States. The workshop was jointly organized ...


April 16, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1456619
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw



This morning, Jamie McAndrews, the Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ...


April 15, 2015, 9:33 am, 1455741

Jason Bram and Richard Deitz

The April 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released today, points to continued weakness in New York’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s headline general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December, falling 8 points to -1.2 in ...


April 15, 2015, 7:33 am, 1455657
J. Benson Durham

Mounting evidence says that “low-risk” investing delivers superior returns, comparable to strategies based on value, size, and momentum. Such tactics include the “risk parity” (RP) asset allocation approach, which received considerable attention during the 2013 taper tantrum when many RP ...


April 13, 2015, 7:33 am, 1454287
Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz



For the first time in modern history, Puerto Rico is seeing its population decline. This troubling loss can be traced to an exodus of Puerto ...


April 10, 2015, 7:34 am, 1453277
Don Morgan and James Narron



Centered in London, the banking panic of 1825 has been called the first modern financial crisis, the first Latin American crisis, and the first emerging market crisis. ...


April 8, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1452516

Marco Cipriani and Jonathan Cohn

On April 1, 2014, the Federal Reserve began collecting transaction-level data on federal funds, Eurodollars, and certificates of deposits from a large set of domestic banks and agencies of foreign banks operating in the United States. Previously, the Fed had ...


April 8, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1452343
Anna Snider

Tesla Motors’ shares saw a brief bounce from a far-out and fictional product (a smart watch) announced as part of an April fool's prank. While markets evidently made quick sense of the joke, that’s not always the case.
A trio of Liberty ...


April 6, 2015, 7:33 am, 1451038
Beverly Hirtle, Anna Kovner, and Eric McKay




In March, the Federal Reserve and thirty-one large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) announced results of the latest


April 3, 2015, 7:33 am, 1450211
Megan Cohen



U.S. savings bonds were created in 1935 under President Franklin D. Roosevelt to assist the United States in raising funds for a variety of ...