Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed)

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from economists working at the intersection of research and Fed policymaking. 

July 31, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1309050
James Orr

An Update on the Competitiveness of PuertoRico’s Economy, released today, offers six steps that the Island’s government should consider taking to restore its fiscal health. PuertoRico faces interrelated economic and fiscal challenges. The report characterizes economic activity in PuertoRico as flat ...

July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1304004
Beverly Hirtle, Anna Kovner, and Eric McKay

Stress tests have become an important method of assessing whether financial institutions have enough capital to operate in bad economic conditions. Under the provisions of the Dodd-Frank Act, both the Federal Reserve and large holding companies(BHCs) are required ...

July 18, 2014, 7:33 am, 1302973
Megan Cohen

There are many methods by which financial institutions can ready themselves for worst-case scenarios: they participate in the federal deposit insurance system, they follow a variety of banking regulations, and they prepare for natural disasters, for starters. But ...

July 16, 2014, 7:33 am, 1301684
Bianca De Paoli and Pawel Zabczyk

One way to assess the stance of monetary policy is to assert that there is a natural interest rate (NIR), defined as the rate consistent with output being at its potential. Broadly speaking, monetary policy can be seen as expansionary if the ...

July 15, 2014, 9:33 am, 1301148
Jason Bram and Richard Deitz

The July 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released today, points to some notable strengthening in NewYork’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s headline general business conditions index and the new orders and shipments indexes all climbed to their highest levels in more ...

July 14, 2014, 7:33 am, 1300551
Thomas Klitgaard and Richard Peck

Economists often model inflation as dependent on inflation expectations and the level of economic slack, with changes in expectations or slack leading to changes in the inflation rate. The global slowdown and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis caused the greatest divergence ...

July 11, 2014, 7:33 am, 1299665
James Narron and David Skeie

In the late 1700s, France ran a persistent deficit and by the late 1780s struggled with how to balance the budget and pay down the debt. After heated debate, the National Assembly elected to issue a paper currency bearing an attractive 3 percent ...

July 10, 2014, 7:33 am, 1299081
Richard Deitz and Shira Gans

With more than 35,000 farms and $5.5 billion in annual sales, the agriculture industry is an important part of the New York State economy. New York produces a wide array of agricultural goods, from dairy products (the state has the third largest dairy ...

July 9, 2014, 7:33 am, 1298505
Adam Copeland, Isaac Davis, Eric LeSueur, and Antoine Martin

The repurchase agreement (repo), a contract that closely resembles a collateralized loan, is widely used by financial institutions to lend to each other. The repo market is divided into trades that settle on the books ...

July 7, 2014, 7:33 am, 1297393
Mary Amiti, Oleg Itskhoki, and Jozef Konings

The Japanese yen depreciated 30percent from its peak in the fourthquarter of 2011 against its trading partners. This was expected to boost its exports as the lower yen makes Japanese goods more competitive on global markets. Instead, the volume of ...