The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economics One (John Taylor)
"A Blog by John B. Taylor”
Today the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations held a hearing on whether the Orderly Liquidation Authority (OLA) in Title II of the Dodd Frank Act has reduced the likelihood of bailouts of large financial firms. I was one ...
Iâ€™ve been speaking a lot about monetary policy recently:- Testifying at the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) last week- Delivering a dinner speech at the Atlanta Fed the week before that- Giving remarks at Mervyn Kingâ€™s farewell conference on a policy ...
The discovery of errors in the Reinhart-Rogoff paper on the growth-debt nexus is already impacting policy. A participant in last Fridayâ€™s G20 meetings told me that the error was a factor in the decision to omit specific deficit or debt-to-GDP targets in ...
Paul Krugman commented early this morning on the Wall Street Journal oped by John Cogan and me. Our oped is based on our research paper with Volker Wieland and Maik Wolters which shows that there are beneficial effects on the economyâ€”in the ...
In talks about my book First Principles I argue that shifts toward and away from the principles of economic freedom have had profound effects on economic performance. From the mid-1960s through the 1970s, deviations away from economic freedom were large, economic policy ...
It is good news that we now have both House and Senate budget proposals for FY 2014 to compare and contrast. This is a first step back toward old-fashioned regular budget order which will help get the country off of management by crisis, whether ...
Scare stories about the automatic reduction in federal spending to start on March 1â€”commonly called the sequesterâ€”fall mainly into two categories. First are the concerns that reducing every discretionary budget account by the same percentageâ€”the â€śmeat-axeâ€ť approachâ€”would not allow government agencies to prioritize. Hence ...
When the recovery was getting started I pointed out the remarkably strong inverse relationship between fixed investment as a share of GDP and the unemployment rate, and argued that a policy that focused on getting businesses to invest more would help get the ...