Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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News N Economics

"Daily analysis of global economic and financial conditions”

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676006
This post is crossposted with Angry Bear blog, where it first appeared.

Jobs growth is a lagging indicator of economic activity, so the June report confirms that the US economy has been in a deep rut (Marshall Auerback calls it a 'fully-fledged New York ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676007
Yesterday, I illustrated (and rather convincingly, in my view) that German factory orders are more of a harbinger of bad economic things to come rather than a strong report to get 'excited' about. Well, today I illustrate why you shouldn't get too excited about the 1.2% rise in ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676008
German factory orders increased rather sharply in May, 1.8% in volumes and on a seasonally adjusted basis. The impetus to industrial orders growth on the month was primarily German factories buying capital goods, +2.4%.

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676009
In May retail sales in Spain fell 6.6% over the year and on a working-day adjusted basis. Retail sales in Spain haven't posted positive annual gains since June 2010. In its own right, this is horrendous.

Marshall Auerback is concerned, as he highlighted in an ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676005
What do Spain and Vietnam have in common?

Roughly a 25% chance of defaulting over the next 5 years. That's what the credit default swap market is telling us.

Vietnam's long-term rating is B1 by Moody's, BB- by S&P, and B+ by Fitch (not that these ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676004
Reader Dilip pointed me to Paul Krugman's article over the weekend, Italy Versus Japan. In it, Krugman (via commenters) asks why Italian debt is trading at 5.7% on the 10yr, while that in Japan is trading at 1.1% (as of July 19, 2011).

The answer's pretty simple: ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676001
The herd that is 'consensus' clings to this hope that GDP will bounce back smartly in Q3 and Q4, where all the while some pretty miserable data and financial conditions are staring us in the face. On May 26 I worried about the 'soft patch'. On July 24, the data ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676002
Here on News N Economics, I’ve generally not commented on the politics of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Regular readers are well aware of my skeptical outlook on the growth prospects for countries forced into fiscal austerity amid piles of private-sector leverage, a slowing global recovery, and a central ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676003
I knew that the Irish deposit base was shrinking - I just didn't realize the severity of the situation. In sum, €21.4 bn in household and non-financial business deposits have been drawn down since their respective peaks.

Irish businesses in aggregate have been in a silent bank ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676000
Today the ECB released details on monetary aggregates for the euro area. According to the statement on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs):

the annual growth rate of total credit granted to euro area residents decreased to ...