May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The IMF has overshot the ex-post path of Greek nominal GDP in each and every one of their World Economic Outlook forecasts since April 2009. What do you want to wager that they're wrong about 2011, too? And now ...
(1) inflation expectations has dropped off precipitously across key countries in Europe, as ...
by Rebecca Wilder
With the (roughly) 11% decline in US equities year-to-date, talk of a US recession has resurfaced. Through mid August, the high frequency economic indicators point to further weakness, ...
"The ECB is run by a perverse cult that worships 2.0 percent inflation and is prepared to sacrifice almost all other economic goals to meet this target."The article goes on to argue that the ECB should increase its inflation target ...
Kash Mansori published complimentary articles that received quite a bit of attention in the blogosphere. Using data published by the ECB and the Fed, Kash Mansori argued ...
Really, I jumped at the opportunity to contribute as part of the EconoMonitors blogging network! Both the audience and the blogging community there are geared toward international ...
Exhibit 1: European Banks are overly levered. Spanning 2006 through the latest data point, key European banking systems ...