Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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News N Economics

"Daily analysis of global economic and financial conditions”

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294614
These jokers have no idea what they're doing.

The IMF has overshot the ex-post path of Greek nominal GDP in each and every one of their World Economic Outlook forecasts since April 2009. What do you want to wager that they're wrong about 2011, too? And now ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294615
I've gotta say, I have absolutely no idea why the ECB is hiking. If I look at key monetary variables (forget about the real economic data for a minute), they should be on hold.

(1) inflation expectations has dropped off precipitously across key countries in Europe, as ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294596
This piece was first written at Angry Bear blog.

by Rebecca Wilder

With the (roughly) 11% decline in US equities year-to-date, talk of a US recession has resurfaced. Through mid August, the high frequency economic indicators point to further weakness, ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294598
The global economic rebound is slowing markedly. With a tightening bias in emerging markets and a US recovery that continues to disappoint, external demand for any country that 'needs it' - those countries mired in fiscal austerity without monetary autonomy, i.e. euro area countries - is decelerating precipitously.

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294595
Lieblings quote of the day by Dean Baker:

"The ECB is run by a perverse cult that worships 2.0 percent inflation and is prepared to sacrifice almost all other economic goals to meet this target."

The article goes on to argue that the ECB should increase its inflation target ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294597
Disclaimer: I'm in Germany, and the keyboard takes some getting used to. Therefore, some of my posts in the coming week will be short and sweet (so that I don't include characters lik รถ, which is sure to turn some heads). Furthermore, blogger spellcheck doesn't work in English here.

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294593
Update: I modified this post since original publishing. I am sorry for that; but I came to some broader conclusions.

Kash Mansori published complimentary articles that received quite a bit of attention in the blogosphere. Using data published by the ECB and the Fed, Kash Mansori argued ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294591
I've decided to migrate News N Economics over to my new blog, The Wilder View, on the Roubini EconoMonitors platform.

Really, I jumped at the opportunity to contribute as part of the EconoMonitors blogging network! Both the audience and the blogging community there are geared toward international ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294592
I present some basic statistics to highlight the problem in Europe. In short, there exists a deleterious positive feedback loop between overly leveraged banks and their sovereigns in key markets.

Exhibit 1: European Banks are overly levered. Spanning 2006 through the latest data point, key European banking systems ...

July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294594
Recently we saw retail sales figures come out of Spain, Germany, France, and Italy. Across Europe, the seasonally-adjusted pattern of real retail sales is diverging.