Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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News N Economics

"Daily analysis of global economic and financial conditions”

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223197
Retail sales in Germany and Spain were reported last week for the month of June. On a working-day and not-seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales fell 7.0% on the year in Spain. In contrast, working-day and seasonally adjusted real retail sales surged over the month in ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223198
Today the ECB released details on monetary aggregates for the euro area. According to the statement on the asset side of the consolidated balance sheet of the euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs):

the annual growth rate of total credit granted to euro area residents decreased to ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223199
The herd that is 'consensus' clings to this hope that GDP will bounce back smartly in Q3 and Q4, where all the while some pretty miserable data and financial conditions are staring us in the face. On May 26 I worried about the 'soft patch'. On July 24, the data ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223200
Here on News N Economics, I’ve generally not commented on the politics of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Regular readers are well aware of my skeptical outlook on the growth prospects for countries forced into fiscal austerity amid piles of private-sector leverage, a slowing global recovery, and a central ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223196
Today a host of global purchasing managers indices (PMIs) reiterated that the global economy is slowing....quickly.

Within 24 hours, China, the US, and the euro area all reported July PMIs falling toward the feared 50 (below which the manufacturing industry is contracting) - ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223195
Edward Harrison draws our attention to the euro area bond crisis: Spain, Italy, Belgium yields now under attack. I'd like to add to this thread by offering some illustrations of the polarizing of bond markets that's coincident with the euro area bond crisis. (Notice I do not say ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223192
The global economic rebound is slowing markedly. With a tightening bias in emerging markets and a US recovery that continues to disappoint, external demand for any country that 'needs it' - those countries mired in fiscal austerity without monetary autonomy, i.e. euro area countries - is decelerating precipitously.

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223193
This will affect consumer sentiment. Watch them scramble now.

Rebecca Wilder

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223194
This article is crossposted with Angry Bear blog.

by Rebecca Wilder

Readers here will know more about the US federal government income statement than I. However, given the near ubiquitous deficit hysteria, I wanted to illustrate the truth about the budget deficit. The truth is, ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223191
Disclaimer: I'm in Germany, and the keyboard takes some getting used to. Therefore, some of my posts in the coming week will be short and sweet (so that I don't include characters lik ö, which is sure to turn some heads). Furthermore, blogger spellcheck doesn't work in English here.