Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”

April 6, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1251569
I'm only about halfway through Flash Boys but have already come across a couple of striking examples of what might charitably be called superfluous financial intermediation.

This is the practice of inserting oneself between a buyer and a seller of an asset, when ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223236
The following is the text of my remarks at a gathering in memory of Albert Hirschman, held earlier today at the Institute for Advanced Study. The event included moving recollections from members of his family, as well as tributes by Joan Scott, Jeremy Adelman, Michael Walzer, ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223237
The peer-to-peer prediction market Intrade ceased operations yesterday and closed out all open positions without notice. Visitors to the site were greeted with the following mysterious message (emphasis added):

With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223238
One of the many benefits of visiting Microsoft Research this semester is that I get to attend some interesting talks by computer scientists working with social and economic data. One in particular this week turned out to be extremely topical. The paper was on "The Groupon Effect ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223235
When Intrade halted trading abruptly on March 10, my initial reaction was that the company had commingled member funds with its own, MF Global style, in violation of its Trust and Security Statement. I suspected that these funds were then dissipated (or embezzled), leaving the firm ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223233
Michael Lewis has written a riveting report on the trial, incarceration, release, and re-arrest of Sergey Aleynikov, once a star programmer at Goldman Sachs. It's a tale of a corporation coming down with all its might on a former employee who, when all is said an done, ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223230
About forty minutes into the final session of a recent research conference at the IMF, Ken Rogoff made the following remarks:

We have regulation about the government having monopoly over currency, but we allow these very close substitutes, we think it's good, but maybe... it's not so ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223231
In my last post I referenced a paper with David Rothschild that we posted earlier this month. The main goal of that work was to try to examine the manner in which new information is transmitted to asset prices, and to distinguish empirically between two

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223232
Even the most casual observer of financial markets cannot fail to be impressed by the speed with which prices respond to new information. Markets may overreact at times but they seldom fail to react at all, and the time lag between the emergence of information and an ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223234
Among the many fascinating people currently affiliated with the Microsoft Research New York lab is Kati London, judged by MIT's Technology Review Magazine (2010) to be among the “Top 35 Innovators Under 35.” Through her involvement with the start-up area/code, Kati has developed games that transform the individuals who ...