Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”


April 10, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1625328
Since the launch of the pioneering Iowa Electronic Markets almost thirty years ago, prediction markets have grown to become a familiar feature in the forecasting landscape. Among the most recent entrants is PredictIt, which has been operating for about a year under a no-action letter from ...


March 19, 2016, 10:34 am, 1619318
The Securities and Exchange Commission has decided to delay for a second time the application by IEX to register as a national securities exchange. This time the they did so without seeking or receiving permission from the applicant, on the grounds that a decision requires clarification ...


March 7, 2016, 10:34 pm, 1615725
On Super Tuesday, and then again on March 5, there were systematic biases in prediction market forecasts. Specifically, Donald Trump lost four contests that he was predicted to win (Oklahoma, Alaska, Minnesota and Maine) and won no contests that he was predicted to lose ...


March 5, 2016, 2:34 am, 1615135
This wild and crazy election cycle is generating an enormous amount of data that social scientists will be pondering for years to come. We are learning about the beliefs, preferences, and loyalties of the American electorate, and possibly witnessing a political realignment of historic proportions. Several


March 1, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1613880
It's Super Tuesday, and if the polls and prediction markets aren't completely off base, Donald J. Trump is heading for a significant and perhaps insurmountable delegate lead in the contest for the Republican nomination. According to PredictIt, he is heavily favored to win all states except ...


January 10, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1597576
The amount of money generated by college sports is staggering: broadcast rights alone are worth over a billion dollars annually, and this doesn't include tickets sales for live events, revenue from merchandise, or fees from licensing. But the athletes on whose talent and effort the entire enterprise is ...


January 5, 2016, 12:34 am, 1595902
The following is a lightly edited version of my comment letter to the SEC in reference to the application by IEX to register as a national securities exchange. Related issues were discussed in in a couple of earlier posts on ...


October 17, 2015, 12:34 am, 1559611
Sendhil Mullainathan is one of the most thoughtful people in the economics profession, but he has a recent piece in the New York Times with which I really must take issue.
Citing data on the racial breakdown of arrests and deaths at ...


September 29, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1550984
The real money peer-to-peer prediction market PredictIt just made a major announcement: they plan to margin-link short positions. This will lead to an across-the board decline in the prices of many contracts, especially in the two nominee markets. Given that the prices in this market are ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502034
In the wake of Indiana's passage of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, the following stickers have started appearing on storefronts across the state: