Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”


September 6, 2014, 10:34 am, 1330378
Back in October 2012 I got an unexpected email from Wendy Carlin, Professor of Economics at University College London, asking me to join her and a few others for a meeting in Cambridge, Massachusetts, to be held the following January. The goal was to "consider how we could ...


August 19, 2014, 8:34 am, 1320916
It's nice to see some attention being paid to agent-based computational models on economics blogs, but Chris House has managed to misrepresent the methodology so completely that his post is likely to do more harm than good. 
In comparing the agent-based method to ...


August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312433
I'm only about halfway through Flash Boys but have already come across a couple of striking examples of what might charitably be called superfluous financial intermediation.

This is the practice of inserting oneself between a buyer and a seller of an asset, when ...


August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312432
Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a hefty 700 pages long, but if one were to collect together all reviews of the book into a single volume it would doubtless be heftier still. These range from glowing to skeptical to largely dismissive; ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294651
Every election year, like clockwork, some people feel the need to remind the rest of us that (contrary to the exhortations of politicians and peers) our votes do not, in fact, count. Not only do they not count in New York, California or Texas, they don't count in ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294652
There were some startling price movements in the presidential contracts on Intrade yesterday. Here's the price and volume chart for the Romney contract, which pays out $10 if he is elected and nothing otherwise:



July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294650
The experience of watching election returns come in has become vastly more social and interactive than it was just a decade ago. Television broadcasts still provide the core pubic information around which expectations are formed, but blogs and twitter feeds are sources of customized private information that can ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294647
paper on the profitability of high frequency traders has been attracting a fair amount of media attention lately. Among the authors is Andrei Kirilenko of the CFTC, whose earlier study of the flash crash used similar data and methods to illuminate the ecology of trading strategies in ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294648
A couple of days ago Intrade announced that it was closing its doors to US residents in response to "legal and regulatory pressures." American traders are required to close out their positions by December 23rd, and withdraw all remaining funds by the 31st. Liquidity has dried up ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294649
I never thought I'd see an RSC policy brief referring to mash-ups and mix-tapes, but I was clearly mistaken.

The document deals in an unusually frank manner with the dismal state of US copyright law. Perhaps too frankly: it was quickly disavowed and taken down on the ...