Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”


April 22, 2015, 8:34 am, 1459608
A London trader recently charged with price manipulation appears to have been using a strategy designed to trigger high-frequency trading algorithms. Whether he used an algorithm himself is beside the point: he made money because the market is dominated by computer programs responding rapidly to incoming ...


April 6, 2015, 8:34 pm, 1451444
There’s a recent paper by Merritt Fox, Lawrence Glosten and Gabriel Rauterberg that anyone interested in the microstructure of contemporary asset markets would do well to read. It's one of the few papers to take a comprehensive and theoretically informed look at the welfare implications of ...


April 3, 2015, 6:34 am, 1450185
The real money, peer-to-peer prediction market PredictIt is up and running in the United States. Modeled after the pioneering Iowa Electronic Markets, it offers a platform for the trading of futures contracts with binary payoffs contingent on the realization of specified events.†


March 29, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1447276
In the wake of Indiana's passage of the Religious Freedom and Restoration Act, the following stickers have started appearing on storefronts across the state:


December 19, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1392310
A recent post by Matt Levine starts out with the following observation:

A good general principle in thinking about derivatives is that real effects tend to ripple out from economic interests. This is not always true, and not always intuitive: If you and I bet ...


September 6, 2014, 10:34 am, 1330378
Back in October 2012 I got an unexpected email from Wendy Carlin, Professor of Economics at University College London, asking me to join her and a few others for a meeting in Cambridge, Massachusetts, to be held the following January. The goal was to "consider how we could ...


August 19, 2014, 8:34 am, 1320916
It's nice to see some attention being paid to agent-based computational models on economics blogs, but Chris House has managed to misrepresent the methodology so completely that his post is likely to do more harm than good.†
In comparing the agent-based method to ...


August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312433
I'm only about halfway through Flash Boys but have already come across a couple of striking examples of what might charitably be called superfluous financial intermediation.

This is the practice of inserting oneself between a buyer and a seller of an asset, when ...


August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312432
Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a hefty 700 pages long, but if one were to collect together all reviews of the book into a single volume it would doubtless be heftier still. These range from glowing to skeptical to largely dismissive; ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294647
A†paper†on the profitability of high frequency traders has been attracting a fair amount of†media attention†lately.†Among the authors is Andrei Kirilenko of the CFTC, whose earlier study of the flash crash used similar data and methods to illuminate the ecology of trading strategies in ...