Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502040
About forty minutes into the final session of a recent research conference at the IMF, Ken Rogoff made the following remarks:

We have regulation about the government having monopoly over currency, but we allow these very close substitutes, we think it's good, but maybe... it's not so ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502041
In my last post I referenced a paper with David Rothschild that we posted earlier this month. The main goal of that work was to try to examine the manner in which new information is transmitted to asset prices, and to distinguish empirically between two


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502042
Even the most casual observer of financial markets cannot fail to be impressed by the speed with which prices respond to new information. Markets may overreact at times but they seldom fail to react at all, and the time lag between the emergence of information and an ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502043
Michael Lewis has written a riveting report on the trial, incarceration, release, and re-arrest of Sergey Aleynikov, once a star programmer at Goldman Sachs. It's a tale of a corporation coming down with all its might on a former employee who, when all is said an done, ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502039
I'm only about halfway through Flash Boys but have already come across a couple of striking examples of what might charitably be called superfluous financial intermediation.

This is the practice of inserting oneself between a buyer and a seller of an asset, when ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502038
Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a hefty 700 pages long, but if one were to collect together all reviews of the book into a single volume it would doubtless be heftier still. These range from glowing to skeptical to largely dismissive; ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502035
A recent post by Matt Levine starts out with the following observation:

A good general principle in thinking about derivatives is that real effects tend to ripple out from economic interests. This is not always true, and not always intuitive: If you and I bet ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502036
Back in October 2012 I got an unexpected email from Wendy Carlin, Professor of Economics at University College London, asking me to join her and a few others for a meeting in Cambridge, Massachusetts, to be held the following January. The goal was to "consider how we could ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502037
It's nice to see some attention being paid to agent-based computational models on economics blogs, but Chris House has managed to misrepresent the methodology so completely that his post is likely to do more harm than good. 
In comparing the agent-based method to ...


July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502034
In the wake of Indiana's passage of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, the following stickers have started appearing on storefronts across the state: