Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773589
There’s a verse in America the Beautiful that I absolutely adore; it represents for me the very best traditions of my adopted country:

America! America!
God mend thine ev’ry flaw,
Confirm thy soul in self-control,
Thy liberty in law.

I’ve been thinking about these ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773590
Peter Moskos is a sociologist by training, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, and a former Baltimore City police officer. In responding to the shooting of Philando Castile, he had this to say:

Honestly, in this shooting, with this cop, in ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773591
I've been thinking a bit more about Roland Fryer's working paper on police use of force, prompted by this thread by Europile and excellent posts by Michelle Phelps and Ezekeil Kweku.
The Europile thread contains a quick, precise, and ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773592
A new empirical analysis of police use of force by Harvard economist Roland Fryer is attracting national attention. The paper deals with both lethal and non-lethal force, using a variety of different data sets, some public and some painstakingly assembled by the author and his team. ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773588
There’s a reason why campaigns are eager to publicize polls that show them ahead, while downplaying those in which they happen to be trailing. The perception that a candidate is losing can depress donations and volunteer effort, and lower morale and turnout among supporters. Hence polls that show ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773587
Thomas Schelling died at the age of 95 yesterday.
At a time when economic theory was becoming virtually synonymous with applied mathematics, he managed to generate deep insights into a broad range of phenomena using only close observation, precise reasoning, and simple models ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773584
In 2013, with funding from the Institute for New Economic Thinking, University College London, Friends Provident Foundation, Azim Premji University (Bangalore) and Sciences Po (Paris), a group of concerned economists created CORE, the Curriculum Open-Access Resources for Economics. Wendy Carlin from University College London led the initiative, ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773585
The death of Kenneth Arrow has led lots of people to swap stories about their interactions with him. Larry Blume has posted several of these on facebook, including the following response to my own contribution (quoted with permission):

This story is not at all ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773586
There's not much one can say about Kenneth Arrow that hasn't already been said, but there's one personal story that I can add to all the tributes and remembrances.
I met Arrow just once, at a Stanford conference in April 2008 that ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773583
Well, it's Labor Day weekend, which means that Barnard and Columbia students are back on campus and classes are about to begin. This semester I'm teaching a seminar based on a book I'm writing with Dan O'Flaherty, and... Introduction to Economic Reasoning.
It's ...