Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294653
Sheila Bair's new book, Bull by the Horns, is both a crisis narrative and a thoughtful reflection on economic institutions and policy. The crisis narrative, with its revealing first-hand accounts of high-level meetings, high-stakes negotiations, behind-the-scenes jockeying, and clashing personalities will attract the most immediate attention. But it's the economic analysis ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294654
The fourth anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy has been selected as the release date for a collection of essays edited by Diane Coyle with the provocative title: What's the Use of Economics? The timing is impeccable and the question legitimate.

The book collects together some very thoughtful responses ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294655
The following post, written jointly with Debraj Ray, is based on our recent note proposing a change in the method for computing the Dow.

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With a market capitalization approaching 600 billion, Apple is currently the largest publicly traded company in the world. The ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294656
At 7:30pm yesterday the Drudge Report breathlessly broadcast the following:

ROMNEY NARROWS VP CHOICES; CONDI EMERGES AS FRONTRUNNER
Thu Jul 12 2012 19:30:01 ET 

**Exclusive** 

Late Thursday evening, Mitt Romney's presidential campaign launched a new fundraising drive, 'Meet The VP' -- just as Romney himself has ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294652
There were some startling price movements in the presidential contracts on Intrade yesterday. Here's the price and volume chart for the Romney contract, which pays out $10 if he is elected and nothing otherwise:



July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294651
Every election year, like clockwork, some people feel the need to remind the rest of us that (contrary to the exhortations of politicians and peers) our votes do not, in fact, count. Not only do they not count in New York, California or Texas, they don't count in ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294648
A couple of days ago Intrade announced that it was closing its doors to US residents in response to "legal and regulatory pressures." American traders are required to close out their positions by December 23rd, and withdraw all remaining funds by the 31st. Liquidity has dried up ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294649
I never thought I'd see an RSC policy brief referring to mash-ups and mix-tapes, but I was clearly mistaken.

The document deals in an unusually frank manner with the dismal state of US copyright law. Perhaps too frankly: it was quickly disavowed and taken down on the ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294650
The experience of watching election returns come in has become vastly more social and interactive than it was just a decade ago. Television broadcasts still provide the core pubic information around which expectations are formed, but blogs and twitter feeds are sources of customized private information that can ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294647
paper on the profitability of high frequency traders has been attracting a fair amount of media attention lately. Among the authors is Andrei Kirilenko of the CFTC, whose earlier study of the flash crash used similar data and methods to illuminate the ecology of trading strategies in ...