Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rajiv Sethi

"thoughts on economics, finance, crime and identity”

December 14, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1702688
Thomas Schelling died at the age of 95 yesterday.
At a time when economic theory was becoming virtually synonymous with applied mathematics, he managed to generate deep insights into a broad range of phenomena using only close observation, precise reasoning, and simple models ...

November 2, 2016, 2:34 am, 1689328
There’s a reason why campaigns are eager to publicize polls that show them ahead, while downplaying those in which they happen to be trailing. The perception that a candidate is losing can depress donations and volunteer effort, and lower morale and turnout among supporters. Hence polls that show ...

September 23, 2016, 4:34 am, 1677917
There’s a verse in America the Beautiful that I absolutely adore; it represents for me the very best traditions of my adopted country:

America! America!
God mend thine ev’ry flaw,
Confirm thy soul in self-control,
Thy liberty in law.

I’ve been thinking about these ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676030
In my last post I referenced a paper with David Rothschild that we posted earlier this month. The main goal of that work was to try to examine the manner in which new information is transmitted to asset prices, and to distinguish empirically between two

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676031
Even the most casual observer of financial markets cannot fail to be impressed by the speed with which prices respond to new information. Markets may overreact at times but they seldom fail to react at all, and the time lag between the emergence of information and an ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676029
About forty minutes into the final session ofa recent research conference at the IMF, Ken Rogoff made the following remarks:

We have regulation about the government having monopoly over currency, but we allow these very close substitutes, we think it's good, but maybe... it's not so ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676028
I'm only about halfway through Flash Boys but have already come across a couple of striking examples of what might charitably be called superfluous financial intermediation.

This is the practice of inserting oneself between a buyer and a seller of an asset, when ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676013
On Super Tuesday, and then again on March 5, there were systematic biases in prediction market forecasts. Specifically, Donald Trump lost four contests that he was predicted to win (Oklahoma, Alaska, Minnesota and Maine) and won no contests that he was predicted to lose ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676011
Since the launch of the pioneering Iowa Electronic Markets almost thirty years ago, prediction markets have grown to become a familiar fixture in the forecasting landscape. Among the most recent entrants is PredictIt, which has been operating for about a year under a no-action letter from ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1676012
The Securities and Exchange Commission has decided to delay for a second time ruling on the application by IEX to register as a national securities exchange. This time they did so without seeking or receiving permission from the applicant, on the grounds that a decision requires ...