Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Economic Policies for the 21st Century

April 22, 2014, 2:34 am, 1258630

Professor Thomas Piketty of the Paris School of Economics has come to America to tell us that many of our problems could be solved with higher taxes on wealth and an increase in the minimum wage. Sunday’s New York Times called him a Rock Star.

Most of the analysis of Piketty’s ...

April 20, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1258086

On Thursday the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released a cost estimate for the Minimum Wage Fairness Act, which would raise the minimum wage. According to CBO’s estimate, raising the hourly minimum wage to $10.10 would increase private sector costs by $15 billion. Essentially, a minimum wage hike is ...

April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257611

No one likes paying taxes. But this year, some of the biggest losers are married working women, who are being discouraged from working by high effective marginal tax rates, both at the bottom and the top end of the income scale.

Other losers are working women, or unemployed women who receive ...

April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257612

While not quite inducing Beatlemania, French economist Thomas Piketty’s visit this week to America has inspired the Washington analog of teenage frenzy. On Tuesday, the inequality expert spoke here in D.C. (top one percent share: 28%) at multiple events. Wednesday he was in New York (Manhattan top share: ...

April 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1257610

This article appeared in National Review on April 18, 2014.

If you have time to read only one book about the causes of the 2008 financial collapse, read this one. You will discover that the banking crises that occur in some countries but not others are part ...

April 16, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1256758

Earlier this month there was tremendous press attention to new data indicating that enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA)’s health insurance exchanges had surpassed 7 million. The White House took a victory lap while much of the press, desperate to write something positive after months of reporting ...

April 16, 2014, 12:34 am, 1256139

Is it possible that working more could actually cost you money? The notion seems impossible, but under the subsidies and penalties of the Affordable Care Act, up to 11 million Americans could find themselves in this situation, concludes University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan.

Mulligan’s latest paper, just out from the ...

April 15, 2014, 10:34 am, 1255734

By Tax Day, April 15, Americans have spent an average of 27 hours filling out their tax returns. Tax collections are at a record high. The government's numerous encounters with the debt ceiling and a potential default have placed fiscal policy front and center in this year's midterm elections.

Running on ...

April 15, 2014, 12:34 am, 1255530

Today, Tax Day, everyone understands that it is not just paying the taxes that is painful, it is getting together all the information and filling out the forms. The cost is time as well as money, time that could be far better spent.

April 14, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1255229

Over the first 100 years of Federal Reserve System history, the United States enjoyed both price stability and the absence of banking crises in only about a quarter of those years. Two main influences explain persistent Fed failure: politicization of Fed decisions (especially to elicit Fed assistance in accomplishing short-term ...