Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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April 19, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1257828
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows an uptick in consumer price inflation for the month of March. Separately, estimates by the Cleveland ...

April 10, 2014, 10:44 am, 1253628
Last month residents of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Although many in the West have questioned the freedom and fairness of the referendum, which was held in ...

April 7, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1251855

April 2, 2014, 10:44 am, 1249689
In the first post in this series, I explained that Austrian economists view air pollution as a coordination problem. Polluters and their victims have conflicting plans for use of the atmosphere or other environmental resources. The former want to use the air for waste ...

March 31, 2014, 10:44 am, 1248460
The Austrian school of economics has experienced a renaissance in recent decades. Its adherents have put their distinctive paradigm to work in nearly every field of economics. This post is the first of ...

March 27, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1247067
New data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that GDP grew slightly faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2013, an annual rate of 2.6 percent rather than the previously reported 2.4 percent. Consumption grew more strongly than previously estimated and ...

March 20, 2014, 2:44 am, 1243310
This interview by James Stafford was first published by March 18, 2014

Smart energy policies seem to be elusive. The US policy disappoints environmentalists and industry alike; Europe’s policy is economically disastrous but is getting people to change their habits; and ...

March 13, 2014, 10:44 am, 1240001
How many times since the start of the Great Recession have you heard a story like this one, from USA Today?

Heather Rolley's primary occupation is motherhood, but it doesn't pay the bills. So most days, after she takes her daughter and two sons to ...

March 8, 2014, 10:44 am, 1237411
The budget for fiscal year 2015 (October 2014 through September 2015), just published by the White House, presents an optimistic prognosis for US fiscal health. Like all budgets, it looks ahead not just one, but several years. It projects that the budget deficit, expected to be ...

February 28, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1233311
Revised data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, somewhat slower than the 3.2 percent previously reported. Allowing for population growth of about 0.7 percent, the ...