Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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December 6, 2014, 8:44 am, 1384461
The US economy added 321,000 payroll jobs in November, the best in almost three years. Strong upward revisions to September and October numbers boosted the 12-month gain to 2,756,000, a new high for ...

November 24, 2014, 8:44 am, 1376869
A universal basic income (UBI) and unemployment insurance (UI) are two possible forms of social insurance for an economy in which job loss is a significant risk. Which works better? How generous should ...

November 13, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1370782
Oil is down again. The price of Brent crude, which moves US gasoline prices, is below $100 a barrel
for the first time (save a single month) in five years.

Why ...

November 8, 2014, 10:44 am, 1367203
The first major report on the health of the US economy for the fourth quarter of 2014 showed
continued gains in the job market. Payroll jobs were up by more than 200,000 ...

November 4, 2014, 8:44 am, 1363842
The Fed has declared an official end to quantitative easing. It is a logical time to ask, did QE work? gives the honest answer in a recent post on Vox: “It’s very, very hard ...

October 30, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1360867
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that US GDP grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in
the third quarter of 2014. Combined with the strong 4.6 percent showing in Q2, ...

October 20, 2014, 8:44 am, 1353953
Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a year ...

October 7, 2014, 8:44 am, 1347206
Last May, I posted an item on the economic situation in the rebellious regions of Eastern Ukraine, or
“Novorossiya” (New Russia), to use the term increasingly favored by separatists and ...

October 5, 2014, 8:44 am, 1346242
The US unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent in September, dropping below 6 percent for the first
time in more than six years. The decrease was powered, in part, by strong growth ...

September 26, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1341843
Revised data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that the US economy grew at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2014, even faster than the 4.2 ...