Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


November Payroll Employment


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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February 3, 2012, 10:44 am, 948083
President Obama’s 2011 State of the Union Address contained ringing language on corporate tax reform:

Over the years, a parade of lobbyists has rigged the tax code to benefit particular companies and industries. Those with accountants or lawyers to work the system can end up paying ...


January 27, 2012, 6:44 pm, 946865
According to the advance estimate released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. real GDP growth increased to a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to just 1.8 percent the previous quarter. It was the tenth consecutive quarter of growth ...


January 23, 2012, 10:44 am, 944626
The controversy over Mitt Romney’s tax returns underlines the need for broad reform of the U.S. tax system. Much commentary has focused on the low average tax rate that this wealthy candidate for president enjoys, thanks in large part to low rates on capital gains.

The ...


January 13, 2012, 2:45 am, 941285
On December 30, The U.S. Court of Appeals for Washington, D.C. stayed implementation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), which was to take effect on January 1, 2012. The EPA maintains that CSAPR would save 13,000 to 34,000 premature ...


January 6, 2012, 2:44 pm, 938939
Everyone knows what this election will be about: jobs, jobs, jobs. If so, the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics should shake things up a little.

The headline number in the report is a relatively robust gain of 200,000 jobs in December, confirming that ...


January 4, 2012, 12:44 am, 937785
Vladimir Putin’s decision to return to the presidency has touched off a wave of protests in Russia. The motives behind the protests are partly social and political (see this recent post), but economics also plays a role in Putin’s fading popularity. It is far ...


December 31, 2011, 12:45 pm, 936879
My one-man committee has met and made a decision: The award for best economics news story of the year goes to Jim Yardley of The New York Times for an article titled “In One Slum, Misery, Work, Politics and Hope,” published in the December 29 issue.
It is ...


December 27, 2011, 10:44 am, 935532
Most economists are familiar with the distinction between coordination via spontaneous order and coordination via hierarchy. (See, e.g., discussion in Ch. 1 of my textbook.) In the real world, coordination often involves a mix of the two. This post from Lynne Kiesling of The Knowledege Problem ...


December 23, 2011, 4:45 pm, 935009
The third estimate of US real GDP for Q3 2011 brought yet another downward revision. Can we blame the Grinch who Stole Christmas?

GDP is now reported to have grown at an estimated 1.8% annual rate in Q3 2011, less than the 2.0% second estimate released in November and ...


December 23, 2011, 2:44 am, 934756
The administration is coming under increasing pressure to accelerate approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, designed to carry increased U.S. imports of bitumen from Canadian oil sands. The latest form of pressure is a Senate bill that would fast-track KXL in exchange for a two-month extension ...