Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”

July 15, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1301261
Since the financial crisis, monetary policy has been strikingly different in Canada and the U.S. The first chart shows overnight nominal interest rates - the overnight money market rate in Canada and fed funds rate in the U.S.

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294675
Allan Meltzer has a post on the effects of QE. Quantitative easing (QE) has its problems, but I don't agree with much of what Meltzer is saying. See for example my post on Ben Bernanke's legacy.

Here's something I disagree with, which is Meltzer's last paragraph:

The ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294676
A couple of months ago, I wrote a critical post about how the economics blogosphere dealt with a murky event - the recent turmoil at the Minneapolis Fed. Basically, bloggers got some basic facts wrong, made things up, and were willing to make strong inferences based on little evidence. ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294677
Gavyn Davies, who writes for the Financial Times, has a blog post related to what I was discussing in my last post.

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294674
I have the distinction of having made Brad DeLong's Thursday idiot rollcall. For the uninitiated, here's what being labeled an idiot by Brad DeLong means. From DeLong's vantage point, the world looks like this: In ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294672
In connection with this post, and this New York Times article by Binyamin Appelbaum, a question came up in the comments section from Noah Smith, as to how Prescott's comments may have been taken out of context. Prescott and I were both, I think, interviewed in the same ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294669
Journalists are busy reading the 2008 FOMC transcripts looking for things to write about. Matt Yglesias is no exception, and he has written a piece arguing that Ben Bernanke and his FOMC made a critical blunder on September 16, 2008, which was not to lower the fed funds ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294670
The release of FOMC transcripts from 2008 is an important event. These are key documents for anyone interested in understanding the role of policy in the financial crisis. Jim Bullard has written a short piece on the events in the latter half of 2008. Bullard's view seems to ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294671
Paul Krugman is a very bad student. He doesn't pay attention in class, he refuses to read, and he complains constantly that he's not learning anything.

Latest complaint:

Take real business cycle theory – I know it’s a horse I beat a lot, but it’s not dead, ...

July 2, 2014, 10:36 pm, 1294673
In 1937, was born the spawn of Satan, and he was named Robert E. Lucas Jr. On his scalp was etched the dreaded "666." In the 1960s, Robert attended the Academy of the Satanists, known to the public as the University of Chicago, where he was schooled in the ways ...