Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”

July 18, 2016, 6:35 pm, 1654744
What follows is an attempt to make sense of Narayana's note on Neo-Fisherism. That discussion will lead into comments on a paper by George Evans and Bruce McGough.

Start with basics. What are Neo-Fisherite ideas anyway? Narayana says the absence of shocks, the equilibrium inflation rate ...

June 21, 2016, 8:35 pm, 1647347
For this post, note the disclaimer at the top of the page. I'm just speaking for myself here, and my views do not necessarily reflect those of the St. Louis Fed, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors.

This is a reply to Narayana's recent Bloomberg ...

June 21, 2016, 6:35 pm, 1647320
I don't always agree with Roger Farmer, but I admire his independence. Roger doesn't like to be bound by the constraints of particular research groups, and typically won't accept the assumptions decreed by some New Keynesians, Monetarists, New Fisherites, or whoever. Farmer is a Farmerite. But, Roger falls into a ...

June 17, 2016, 8:35 am, 1646220
In October 2015, after a September payroll employment estimate of 142,000 new jobs, described as "grim" and "dismal" in the media, I wrote this blog post, arguing that we might well see less employment growth in the future. That conclusion came from simple labor force arithmetic. With the working-age ...

June 14, 2016, 12:35 pm, 1645289
Dave Backus has passed away. Dave was the Heinz Riehl Professor in the Stern School at NYU, and had previous positions at Queen's University, UBC, and the Minneapolis Fed. Dave leaves behind a solid body ...

April 14, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1626782
Accepting neo-Fisherism is a 12-stage program. The first stage is admitting you have a problem. The twelfth stage is helping others to admit that they have a problem too. Going from stage one to stage twelve may be a tough battle - many could temporarily fall off the wagon. But ...

April 7, 2016, 4:35 pm, 1624765
Last week, I attended a conference on the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) in Chicago. Eric Leeper claims that I'm actually a closet FTPL person, and seems to have thought I belonged there, which is certainly fine with me. The assignment was to talk about research ideas. ...

March 25, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1621177
There has been some discussion of central bank forecasts and policy projections, including some blog posts by Tony Yates, Tony Yates part II, Narayana, David Andolfatto, and an editorial on Bloomberg.

The FOMC's dot plots are part of the economic projection materials published ...

March 5, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1615219
David Andolfatto draws some useful comparisons between Canada, 1990-1999, and the U.S., post-2008. As he points out, Canada experienced a decade-long slump in the 90s which featured a depressed participation rate and employment/population ratio. It's useful, I think, to show how this experience was different from what we're seeing ...

March 3, 2016, 10:34 pm, 1614737
Last week's numbers on the January pce deflator seemed to have sparked optimism in some people, though my non-macro friends are wondering why anyone is excited about more inflation. Here are what the 12-month inflation rates look like for the raw pce deflator and pce deflator excluding food and energy: ...