Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”


August 19, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1321081
There is an ebook available on "Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures," which consists of a set of papers by a group of economists, brought together in an attempt to understand secular stagnation, and how we might address the problem, if it is one. Some of the papers are ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312440
For some obscure reason, Tom's Sargent's Berkeley graduation address from seven years ago is now getting attention in the blogosphere. It's innocuous stuff - basically core ideas in economics boiled down to life lessons for graduating seniors. Paul Krugman seems a little insecure about it though (here and ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312441
As Lars Svensson notes, Sweden now has inflation that ranks among the lowest in the world. From the Riksbank's website, CPI inflation in Sweden looks like this: The Riksbank has a 2% inflation target, ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312442
The Board of Governors has posted details on the structure of the FRB/US model, the data used in estimating the model, published work using the model, etc. If you have access to EViews, it appears you can also run simulations. There is even a long disclaimer, presumably to ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312439
I have not read a word of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century. As far as I can understand from secondhand and thirdhand accounts, it has something to do with outrage about the wealthy, measuring the rate of return on capital, and how we can tax those worthless ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312437
You may have heard this story. I got it from John Kennan, who claims it originated with computer scientists. There are some monkeys in a cage. Someone puts a banana at the other end of the cage. When one monkey goes for the banana, the other monkeys are sprayed with ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312434
From a post by Brad DeLong on Krusell and Smith's comment on Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century:"

As time passes, it seems to me that a larger and larger fraction of Piketty's critics are making arguments that really make no sense at all--that I really do not ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312435
I will shortly be taking up a full-time position in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Federal Reserve System has always been good to me, in spite of the grief I give the Fed from time to time. I'm looking forward to working with ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312436
Since Larry Summers's talk at the IMF in November, there has been some blog discussion of "secular stagnation." The secular stagnation idea seems to have originated with Alvin Hansen (AER, 1939), but I assure you that reading that will not enlighten you as to why we may or ...


August 5, 2014, 8:35 pm, 1312438
Chris House's discussion of Tom Sargent's principles, and some of the related blog discussion, is closely related to what I said here. What I think House is getting at is the following. Self-described blogosphere "progressive" economists have a political agenda. They want particular changes in economic policy, and ...