Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”

June 19, 2015, 4:35 pm, 1494043
If you're having trouble understanding Paul Romer's elaborations on mathiness, this post from last week probably won't help much either. As Romer admits, he's fighting mathiness with wordiness, and for me the words aren't always ...

June 9, 2015, 12:35 am, 1487998
I was reading Noah Smith's "Economic Argments as Stalking Horses," which at the minimum got me interested in finding out what a stalking horse is. Animals understand which other animals will cause them harm, they key into the movements of those other animals, and they'll get out of the ...

June 1, 2015, 6:35 pm, 1484076
Dave Andolfatto has a nice take on Paul Romer and mathiness.

May 31, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1483472
After the latest revisions to U.S. real GDP by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, was -0.7%. So, have we entered a recession or what? In answering that question, we can learn ...

May 21, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1478692
I had heard Paul Romer is disgruntled, and now that he's written down his thoughts, we can perhaps sort this out. We'll start with his recent blog post on "Protecting the Norms of Science in ...

April 13, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1454734
Noah Smith's Bloomberg post on the wonders of sticky price models caught my eye the other day. I'm going to use that as background for addressing issues on financial stability and monetary policy raised by Ben Bernanke.

First, Noah is more than a little confused about the ...

April 4, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1450620
Brad DeLong has a post on New Keynesian (NK) models. Things are certainly looking up, as I'm finding DeLong more agreeable by the day. As far as I can tell, we both think there is a deficiency of safe assets in the world, and we're not big fans of ...

April 3, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1450428
As you probably know, Ben Bernanke has a series of blog posts on why we have low interest rates. My two main points are: (i) Bernanke may be missing what is most important about the phenomenon of low real interest rates; (ii) He's giving Larry Summers way too much ...

March 22, 2015, 6:35 pm, 1443431
Simon Wren-Lewis will unfortunately have to join Brad DeLong and Nick Rowe in the ranks of not-ready-for-prime-time monetary economists. There is always hope, though. We can allow him a retake of the David Levine's Keynesian economics exam. He could even attempt the same problem, if he wants. ...

March 20, 2015, 6:35 pm, 1442996
I guess I shouldn't be surprised. David Levine's piece on Keynesian economics appears to have generated plenty of heat. See for example the comments section in my post linking to Levine. I'm imagining an ...