Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”

August 24, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1533487
Two comments on Larry Summers's piece from yesterday:

1. Summers says:

I doubt that, if rates were now 4 per cent, there would be much pressure to raise them.

I think what Summers means is that, if everything else looked the same, and if the interest rate on reserves ...

August 23, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1532939
Paul Gomme, Ravikumar, and Peter Rupert would like to respond to comments on their 2011 RED paper, and St. Louis Fed Economic Synopsis, in blog posts by Noah Smith and Robert Waldmann. Here, I've put in my own words the results of some email conversations with ...

August 21, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1532374
I opened up my New York Times (literally - I still retrieve the physical NYT from the curb, the bushes, the mud puddle) and was pleased as could be to see that Paul Krugman has finally picked up on what I think is a key idea for understanding macroeconomic ...

August 19, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1531147
See this talk by Jim Bullard at the University of Orgeon.

August 18, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1530545
Observed real interest rates on U.S. government debt are, by any measure, low. For example, here's the 30-day T-bill rate minus the inflation rate:And this is the yield on 10-year TIPS:

August 15, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1529111
I thought this would be a good time to look at a range of labor market data, to see what we can learn. How does labor market performance look relative to performance before the Great Recession? What's different, and why?

We'll start with standard time series. Payroll employment growth ...

July 14, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1508929
A lot has been written, as it turns out, on Canada's experience with fiscal discipline in the mid-1990s. In 1993, Jean Chretien's Liberals were elected with a majority government and, with their February 1995 budget, embarked on a period of fiscal tightening. The change in policy was a response ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502079
I'm going to try to clear up some issues in the blog discussion among Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Paul Krugman, and Simon Wren-Lewis, among others, about zero-lower-bound monetary policy. Rather than parse the thoughts of others, I'll start from scratch, and hopefully you'll be less confused.

I'll focus ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502077
Paul Krugman has an interesting perspective on the history of economic thought. According to him, the Volcker disinflation played out exactly as Keynesians thought it would. Cutting to the chase:

So were Keynesian economists feeling amazed and dismayed by the events of the 1980s? On the contrary, they were ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1502078
Robert Waldmann thinks there are "non-Keynesians" who are excessively dismissive of the Keynesian multiplier:

Various non Keynesians have argued that the pattern of public spending and GDP in the USA during the current recovery (that ...