Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”


April 9, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1253224
The Board of Governors has posted details on the structure of the FRB/US model, the data used in estimating the model, published work using the model, etc. If you have access to EViews, it appears you can also run simulations. There is even a long disclaimer, presumably to ...


March 31, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1248744
John Taylor has a blog post which reviews the origin of the Taylor rule and why we should think it's good guidance for central bankers. In making his points, Taylor quotes from a reply I made to a comment on one of my posts, so I'll supply that reply ...


March 27, 2014, 2:35 pm, 1247065
I'm a little late on this, but I saw some commentary on this Bank of England article by McLeay, Radia, and Thomas, "Money Creation in the Modern Economy." The article appears intended for lay people, as a basic introduction to how banking, money, and monetary policy work. If this ...


March 19, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1243132
As anticipated, the FOMC statement contains new forward guidance language. The language is vague, and rather loquacious. If I'm not mistaken, this is the longest post-FOMC-meeting press release on record.

The important novelties in the statement are in paragraphs 5 and 6. Paragraph 5 reads:

To ...


March 18, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1242516
The FOMC will meet today and tomorrow. Given that there has been little news that would change the economic forecast, the Fed is likely to continue "tapering" - the monthly reductions in the size of asset purchases that began in December. This meeting may be important though. First, this will ...


March 11, 2014, 6:36 pm, 1238971
If we track real GDP in the United States and Canada since the beginning of the last recession, the history looks similar. I have normalized real GDP to 100 for each country in 2007Q4. You can ...


March 9, 2014, 10:35 pm, 1237720
The FOMC transcripts for 2008 are indeed interesting reading. If you want to dip into these, I would recommend skipping some of the talk at the regular scheduled meetings, some of which is just formal statements by the participants, and pay close attention to the inter-meeting conference calls.


February 25, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1231083
Journalists are busy reading the 2008 FOMC transcripts looking for things to write about. Matt Yglesias is no exception, and he has written a piece arguing that Ben Bernanke and his FOMC made a critical blunder on September 16, 2008, which was not to lower the fed funds ...


February 23, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1229836
The release of FOMC transcripts from 2008 is an important event. These are key documents for anyone interested in understanding the role of policy in the financial crisis. Jim Bullard has written short piece on the events in the latter half of 2008. Bullard's view seems to be ...


February 18, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1227016
Paul Krugman is a very bad student. He doesn't pay attention in class, he refuses to read, and he complains constantly that he's not learning anything.

Latest complaint:

Take real business cycle theory – I know it’s a horse I beat a lot, but it’s not dead, ...