Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Stephen Williamson

"Stephen Williamson:  New Monetarist Economics
My lastest ideas on macroeconomics, monetaryu economics, economic policy and current events”


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773828
What are people talking about when they say "full employment?" Maybe they don't know either? Whatever it is, "full employment" is thought to be important for policy, particularly monetary policy. Indeed, it typically enters the monetary policy discussion as "maximum employment," the second leg of the Fed's dual mandate - ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773829
In the past year, inflation rates have increased in a number of countries. Are these increases temporary or permanent? What do they imply for monetary policy?

One of the more stark turnarounds in ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773830
I was sad to learn today that Tim Fuerst has passed away. Tim received his PhD from Chicago in 1990, was the William and Dorothy O'Neill Professor at the University of Notre Dame, ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773831
We're starting to hear some public discussion about Fed balance sheet reduction. For example, Jim Bullard has spoken about it, and Ben Bernanke has written about it.

Balance sheet reduction is part of the FOMC's "Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. Quoting from scripture:

The Committee ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773827
Sociologists sometimes feel neglected. And this can cause them to complain - about economists. Economics is a successful social science. While most social sciences do well in attracting undergraduate students, economics has performed well off campus. An undergrad economics major pays well, and an economics PhD provides entry into ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773826
That real rates of return on government debt are at historical lows is well-established. Of course, the anticipated real rate of return on government debt - which is what matters for economic behavior - is unobservable, and that's problematic. Typically, macroeconomists resort to proxy measures as a starting point for ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773823
There's been a lot of talk recently about the 2% inflation target, and whether or not it would be a good idea to raise it, or change the nature of the target - to price level or nominal GDP targeting, for example. It's instructive, I think, to use as a ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773824
Ben Bernanke has written a couple of blog posts on the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates, and some implications for monetary policy going forward. The first deals with the extent of the ZLB "problem," and the second with monetary policy solutions.

In a ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773825
Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, gave a speech last Friday at the San Franciso Fed titled "A Little More Conversation, a Little Less Action." What was Haldane trying to get across? He wants to build "trust and legitimacy" by "rethinking how and with whom central ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773822