Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Causes of the Crisis

"Here, the authors of articles in Critical Review’s special issue on the causes of the financial crisis blog about their latest thoughts and findings regarding ‘what went wrong.’”

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501906
The University of Pennsylvania Press has concluded the peer review of "Capitalism and the Crisis: Regulation, Competition, and Systemic Risk," by Jeffrey Friedman and Wladimir Kraus. The book will be published on September 1, 2011.

This book takes up the "Basel thesis" laid out in Critical ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501907
Critical Review contributor Amar Bhide's "A Call for Judgment" is now available from Oxford University Press. Bhide presents a meticulous history and critique of economic doctrines that implied market omniscience and that may have contributed to the financial crisis.

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501908
From the New York Times:

"seemingly safe institutions in more solid economies like France and Germany hold vast amounts of bonds from their more shaky neighbors, like Spain, Portugal and Greece....For example, Portuguese banks owe $86 billion to their counterparts in Spain, which in turn owe German ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501909
The NY Times reports what may be the key part of the rescue package that is now rallying the markets: a bank bailout. "The European Central Bank reversed its position of just a few days ago and began buying government and corporate debt."

Why did the prospect of ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501905
"What Caused the Financial Crisis," edited by Jeffrey Friedman, is now available from the University of Pennsylvania Press and from Amazon. It contains Critical Review's special issue on the financial crisis, along with a completely revised introduction by the editor and an Afterword by Judge Richard Posner.

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501904
Update on availability: the first shipment to Amazon sold out within a week of the December 15 release. As of today there are four copies of the second shipment left at Amazon, and they have reduced the original $10 discount to $1. However, copies are still available at, which ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501901

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501902
We note in the introduction to the book Max Weber's rueful acknowledgement (in "Science as a Vocation") that empirical claims are bound to be superseded over time. We hope it takes more than a day or two for our claims to be superseded, but we are happy to contribute to ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501903
This blog was initially established by the Critical Review Foundation as a forum for contributors to What Caused the Financial Crisis, published by the University of Pennsylvania Press in 2010. That, in turn, was the book version of a special issue of Critical Review devoted to the causes ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501900