Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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TaxVox

Tax Policy Center:  Urban Institute and Brookings Institution


October 31, 2014, 10:34 am, 1361566

While most national attention is focused on which party will control the Senate and who will win the 36 gubernatorial races, many states also have fiscal initiatives on their ballots. And a few may provide some clues to how the public feels about the trade-off between taxes and government ...


October 28, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1359162

In the run-up to next week’s congressional elections, Republicans are saying that if they win control of the Senate, they will try to pass business tax reform as part of an ambitious “we can get things done” agenda. Is there any possibility that a GOP-controlled Congress could rewrite the business provisions ...


October 27, 2014, 8:34 am, 1358129

Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then. 

Stranger than fiction: The IRS, “structuring,” and asset seizures. A business’ cash deposits, if under $10,000, do not trigger a government reporting requirement. But that could look like “structuring” to the IRS:


October 23, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1356449

Any close observer of the making of tax policy can see it: Lawyers and economists looking at the same issue through entirely different prisms. I’ve been fascinated by how their respective brains work, and why they have so much trouble communicating with one another. It turns out I am not ...


October 21, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1354923

Jean Tirole is an influential, respected, and by all accounts gracious man who won this year’s Nobel Prize in economics. Bertha is a 7,000-ton tunnel boring machine that’s been stuck under Seattle for nine months—but is still tweeting—as state officials and a private contractor battle over ...


October 20, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1354113

Treasury closed the financial books on fiscal 2014 last week. As my colleague Howard Gleckman noted, the top line figures all came in close to their 40-year averages. The $483 billion deficit was about 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, for example, slightly below the 3.2 percent average of ...


October 20, 2014, 8:35 am, 1353952

Congress is in recess through the mid-term elections. The Daily Deduction will post each Monday until then. 

What’s a multinational to do? Where is it to go?  Senator Dick Durbin and Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden seem pleased that Chicago-based AbbVie’s  decided to drop ...


October 17, 2014, 2:35 pm, 1353068

Voters say the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming election. But as the most recent State Economic Monitor reports, the economy looks very different depending on what (and what state) you’re analyzing. And polls suggest that voters faced with these mixed messages may focus on ...


October 16, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1352521

Yesterday, the Treasury Department reported that the deficit for Fiscal Year 2014, which ended on Sept. 30, fell to $483 billion, or about 2.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. This being Washington, the report was hailed as either an enormous success or dismissed as meaningless.  Who is right? Is ...


October 14, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1351063

When Mitt Romney released his tax return information during the 2012 presidential campaign, many of us were introduced to the world of supersized IRAs. Romney somehow had a tax-preferred retirement nest egg valued at $101 million. Maybe he got there by making standard annual contributions and investing really well. ...