Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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TaxVox

Tax Policy Center:  Urban Institute and Brookings Institution


February 27, 2015, 10:34 am, 1430372

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring.

The House recently changed the rules of budget scoring: The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation will now account for macroeconomic effects when estimating the budget impacts of major legislation. Here are three things ...


February 27, 2015, 10:34 am, 1430373

The neutrality of the net: Set. Tax effects? Unclear. That’s the conclusion of Politifact after the Federal Communications Commission approved controversial regulations that will treat the Internet like a public utility. The fact checkers examined the question after GOP Senator Mike Lee claimed that net neutrality was a “massive ...


February 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1430298

The neutrality of the net: Set. Tax effects? Unclear. That’s the conclusion of Politifact after the Federal Communications Commission approved controversial regulations that will treat the Internet like a public utility. The fact checkers examined the question after GOP Senator Mike Lee claimed that net neutrality was a “massive ...


February 26, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1429767

It’s been just over a year since I started posting TPC’s Daily Deduction. It’s high time I let you in on a little secret: Whenever I tell people that I write about “tax news and research” I get the exact same reaction. Imagine furrowed eyebrows, coupled with a sad, “Oh.”

Every. ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429597

There are better ways to tie Affordable Care Act enrollment to tax filing season. This morning from 8:30 to 10:00 am, the Tax Policy Center and the Brookings Institution sponsor a panel and webcast examining ways to use tax filing to encourage people to buy insurance. Consider the White ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429598

The Obama Administration, finally acknowledging the seasonal mismatch between the Affordable Care Act’s open enrollment season and the ACA’s tax-based penalties for failing to have insurance, decided on Friday to create a new special enrollment season for this year only.  The new window will allow those who ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429596

So far, most people with Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies seem to be filing their taxes without huge problems, despite the complexity of the process. However, about half of those who have filed returns with tax prep firm H&R Block and who owe a penalty for not having insurance, have expressed ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429593

This is one of a series of guest TaxVox blog posts discussing dynamic scoring

House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan has claimed that the House dynamic scoring rule would generate more information.  But the new rule asks for an official cost estimate that reflects only a ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429594

The New York Times recently reported Republican governors across the country were "bucking the party line" on taxes, citing eight GOP executives proposing tax hikes. Bloomberg also noted the trend of Republican governors and "much-regretted" tax increases earlier this week. However, the Wall Street Journal just heralded ...


February 26, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1429595

High-income households can worry even less about being audited this year. Last year, the IRS audited just 7.5 percent of households earning more than $1 million in 2013. That’s the lowest share since 2009. Its overall individual audit rate was 0.86 percent, the lowest  since 2004. The IRS ...