Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

TaxVox

Tax Policy Center:  Urban Institute and Brookings Institution


January 30, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1413449

After President Obama proposed, and rapidly abandoned, a plan to curb the tax advantages of Sec. 529 college savings accounts, several wise observers, including my friend David Wessel at Brookings, saw an object lesson for broad-based tax reform. To wit: If lawmakers can’t ditch a single $1 billion tax break, ...


January 30, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1413277

Pop-quiz: What's the line on Sunday's game between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks?

Answer: The Patriots are favored by one or two points (depending on what sportsbook you bet with).

Next question: On what line do taxpayers report gambling winnings on their 1040 income tax form?

Answer: Line 21 for ...


January 30, 2015, 8:34 am, 1413120

Up next week: The President’s Budget. President Obama will release his budget  for fiscal year 2016 on Monday. The plan would increase spending above the sequester limits of  the Budget Control Act of 2011. Steep cuts were triggered in 2013 when Congress failed to reach a budget deal, ...


January 29, 2015, 8:34 am, 1412271

TPC shows how President Obama would redistribute income from the rich to the poor. The President will release his budget next week, and with it, a tax plan analyzed by the Tax Policy Center. TPC’s Howard Gleckman explains that under the plan, after- tax income would ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411819

Territorial tax systems abroad may not be good models for corporate reform here. A new TPC paper warns against drawing quick and easy conclusions from the territorial tax systems in other developed countries. While Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan find ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411818

The GOP says it wants a revolution, but who’s going to change the world? Long touted as a way to prove that tax cuts can pay for themselves by the economic growth they generate, “dynamic scoring” of federal legislation is no simple task. Today’s TPC-Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411816

The House has instructed the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office to factor in the macroeconomic effects of tax law changes when calculating the official budget score of revenue bills. But are existing models up to the task of what’s commonly called dynamic scoring?

A group of experts ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411817

President Obama will feature higher education prominently in next week’s budget—a choice that makes sense, given that educational attainment is the most straightforward pathway for economic advancement. Many of his ideas, which he highlighted in his State of the Union address, are controversial. And some don’t go far enough. But ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411811

President Obama’s latest tax package, which he’ll unveil in detail next week along with his new budget, would lower taxes for low-income households and significantly raise taxes for the highest income 1 percent—those making $663,000 or more, according to new Tax Policy Center estimates.  Middle-income households would see relatively ...


January 28, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1411810

In his upcoming budget, President Obama will propose to strip away the “loopholes” that permit wealthy individuals to accumulate large amounts in tax-favored retirement plans. He would prohibit a taxpayer from contributing any more to IRAs or other qualified retirement plans once his or her accounts reach a combined value ...