Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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TaxVox

Tax Policy Center:  Urban Institute and Brookings Institution


August 28, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1326148

Without changes in the law, health care, Social Security, and interest on the debt will eat up 85 percent of all new federal government spending over the next 10 years, according to the latest estimates by the Congressional Budget Office. By contrast, CBO expects most of the rest of ...


August 26, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1324968

Corporate inversions have been the topic of the summer for tax wonks (beats jellyfish and beach traffic, I suppose), but the issue is a classic bit of Washington misdirection. Instead of focusing on the real disease—an increasingly dysfunctional corporate income tax—we are obsessing over a symptom—firms such as Burger ...


August 25, 2014, 8:35 am, 1323946

Congress is in recess until September 8. The Daily Deduction will next appear on Tuesday, September 2. It will resume its regular schedule on Monday, September 8.

Individual tax rates: If you cut them, what will grow? Representative Paul Ryan, who is likely to become the next chair of  the House ...


August 21, 2014, 6:35 pm, 1322653

Reducing tax rates is a guiding principal of most tax reform plans. Even Democrats who see reform partly as a tool to boost revenues agree that some money generated by eliminating tax preferences ought to go to rate reduction. But how much does Treasury lose when Congress reduces individual tax rates, ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322579

Congress is in recess. The Daily Deduction will return to its regular schedule on Monday, September 8. Until then: We’ll see you every Monday morning.

Don’t like corporate inversions? If the Administration wants to stop them, it can. TPC’s Steve Rosenthal explains: Treasury has the authority to treat a ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322580

Politicians can debate whether corporate tax inversions are “unpatriotic” or simply a legitimate technique to reduce taxes–and commentators can argue over whether anything should be done to stop them. Experts also disagree about whether President Obama and his Treasury Secretary have the legal authority to write new rules to discourage inversions. ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322578

Politicians love sales tax holidays as good campaign fodder. Retailers celebrate them with gaudy signs announcing tax-free shopping, and consumers line up to take advantage of the deals. But economists and policy analysts across the ideological spectrum condemn them as poorly targeted tax policy that produces little economic benefit. Is ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322575

Reducing tax rates is a guiding principal of most tax reform plans. Even Democrats who see reform partly as a tool to boost revenues agree that some money generated by eliminating tax preferences ought to go to rate reduction. But how much does Treasury lose when Congress reduces individual tax rates, ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322576

Corporate inversions are all the rage these days as U.S. businesses merge with foreign firms and then restructure the combined businesses as foreign-based corporations. That yields tax benefits and may boost their after-tax profits, but it can also leave their stockholders with unwanted capital gains and big tax bills.

As ...


August 21, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1322577

The Treasury Department put out the word that Secretary Jack Lew is considering regulatory curbs on corporate tax inversions, a step that may be intended to increase pressure on Congress to act once it returns from its summer recess in September.

The matter of how much authority Treasury has to ...