Economics Roundtable

Calculated Risk

Read the Bill McBride interview.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


June Payroll Employment

The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Focus on the Problem

U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Megan McArdle

Asymmetrical Information


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024791

Guest post by Mark A.R. Kleiman, public policy professor at UCLA. Professor Kleiman regularly blogs at The Reality Based Community.

Here is Mitt Romney, criticizing Barack Obama's plans to help the states and localities reverse the shrinkage in government employment currently dragging us back into recession:    ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024790

Guest post by Mark A.R. Kleiman, public policy professor at UCLA. Professor Kleinman regularly blogs at The Reality Based Community

Jim Wilson, who died at a very young and vigorous 80 this March, left a huge imprint on American social science and public policy. He was also my friend, ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024789

Guest post by Mark A.R. Kleiman, public policy professor at UCLA. Professor Kleinman regularly blogs at The Reality Based Community

I'm grateful to Megan for the invitation to guest-blog, but I'm also somewhat daunted at the prospect of having to replace her usual output in quality and quantity. So, as ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024788

Guest post by Dr. Manhattan, a lawyer in New York City who represents, among others, clients in the investment management industry.

Last week, Mitt Romney released a white paper detailing his (current) positions on education policy. One of its prominent features was a proposal to make federal funds allocated ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024787

Guest post by Laura McKenna, former political science professor, blogger, and freelance writer

With the cutbacks in school funding, many school districts ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024786

Guest post by Laura McKenna, former political science professor, blogger, and freelance writer.

I became fascinated with the romance novel industry this spring.

It all began when a friend recommended that I check out a romance ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024785

Guest post by Laura McKenna, former political science professor, blogger, and freelance writer

After parents first receive the news from a doctor or a teacher that their child is on the autistic spectrum, there is an inevitable ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024784

Guest post by Jonathan H. Adler, a professor at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law and regular contributor to the Volokh Conspiracy

No environmental issue is more polarizing ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024783

Guest post by Jonathan H. Adler, a professor at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law and a regular contributor to the Volokh Conspiracy.

It can be a bit lonely working on environmental issues from the "right" side of the political spectrum. Environmental academics and activists ...


November 8, 2012, 10:37 pm, 1024781
Guest post by Dr. Manhattan, a lawyer in New York City who represents, among others, clients in the investment management industry.

Paul Krugman argues in his current column that "Wall Streeters" are nothing but a bunch of spoiled brats throwing temper tantrums (who have contributed nothing of ...