Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Brad Setser:  Follow the Money


December 1, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1698989

One oft-made argument is that with Trump’s decision not to move forward with the TPP, China has an opportunity to fill the regional trade void. Chinese policy makers are certainly pushing their regional comprehensive economic partnership hard. Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute, in an article by Eduardo Porter.

“China ...


November 30, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1698721

Here is a bit of ballpark math.

Carrier has announced it will keep open a factory in Indiana, retaining around 1,000 jobs.

Since the election, the broad dollar has appreciated by about 4%, presumably because of the impact of an expected loosening of fiscal policy. Let’s assume the change in the ...


November 28, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1697958

A couple of weeks ago, Daokai (David) Li argued that the “right” exchange rate for China isn’t clearly determined by China’s fundamentals. Or rather that two different exchange rates could prove to be consistent with China’s fundamentals.

“Currently, the yuan exchange rate regime yields multiple equilibrium. When we expect the ...


November 22, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1696527

President-elect Trump wants to cut taxes and increase investment in U.S. infrastructure (or at least provide a tax break for existing infrastructure investment) and doesn’t seem especially worried if the result is a larger fiscal deficit.

The call for larger fiscal deficits has some parallels to the agenda I think makes ...


November 17, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1695263

My preferred indicators of Chinese intervention are now available for October, and they send conflicting messages.

The changes in the balance sheet of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) point to significant reserve sales (the data is reported in yuan, the key is the monthly change). PBOC balance sheet foreign reserves ...


November 15, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1694412

President-elect Trump has said that he plans to declare China a currency manipulator on day one.

I am among those who think this is a bad idea. This isn’t the right time to signal that China’s long-standing exchange rate management has crossed over the line and become manipulation. If ...


November 10, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1692967

In the spirit of bridging the urban/rural divide after a dramatic election, it somehow seems fitting to do a bit more soybean blogging.

The September trade data suggests that July’s dramatic spike in soybean exports in the seasonally adjusted data is probably petering out a bit. Real (e.g. adjusted for price) ...


November 8, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1691976

China’s headline reserves fell by around $45 billion in October, dropping to $3.12 trillion. Many China reserve watchers expected a bigger fall. Moves in the foreign exchange (FX) market knocked around $30 billion off China’s roughly $1 trillion portfolio of euros, pounds, and yen assets in October. After adjusting ...


November 4, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1690512

Korea’s balance of payments data—and the central bank’s forward book—are now out for September. They confirm that the central bank intervened modestly in September, buying about $2 billion.* That is substantially less than in August. Based on the balance of payments data, intervention in q3 was likely over $10 billion ...


November 2, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1689558

Andrew Batson recently pushed back a bit against my attempt to frame one of China’s core macroeconomic problems as “too much savings.” He argues that policies to bring down savings have been tried in China – spending on social insurance rose in the ‘aughts – and it didn’t bring ...