Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Brad Setser:  Follow the Money


June 27, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1648907

Full disclosure upfront: I worked on Puerto Rico while at the U.S. Treasury in 2015. All views here are my own.

The Hill has published my column on PROMESA (the bill that sets out a framework for fiscal oversight and territorial debt restructuring that passed the House earlier this month and ...


June 22, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1647685

Over the past twenty years, the biggest shocks to the global economy have come from sharp swings in financial flows: Asia; the subprime crisis and the run out of shadow banks in the United States and Europe; and the euro area crisis. All forced dramatic changes in trade flows. Emerging ...


June 20, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1646984

The best available indicators of China’s activity in the foreign exchange market—the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) balance sheet data, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange’s (SAFE) foreign exchange settlement data—are out. They have confirmed that China did not sell much foreign currency in May.


June 20, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1646906

Marc Chandler asked why I chose to attribute Belgium’s holdings to China rather than any of the other potential candidates—notably the Gulf and Russia.

The answer for Russia is pretty straightforward. Russia’s holdings of Treasuries (and in the past Russia’s holdings of both Treasuries and Agencies) tend to show up ...


June 15, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1645759

A few weeks back, the New York Times looked at the “mystery” of Spain’s high level of unemployment.

The article highlighted a real debate about the right level of job protection in Spain, and in Europe.

But the headline obviously stuck in my mind. I do not think there ...


June 14, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1645416

The jump in China’s imports from Hong Kong has generated a bit of attention recently.

Monthly imports have gone from around $1 billion this time last year to around $3 billion. It is very reasonable to think that this rise reflects a new way of getting money out ...


June 9, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1644130

Quick answer. A lot. Between $1.3 trillion and $1.4 trillion, or about 40 percent of China’s reserves. The last year has made it abundantly clear that Belgium’s holdings of Treasuries aren’t from Belgian dentists. China’s reserves started to fall last summer. Yet China’s reported holdings of Treasuries in the ...


June 7, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1643410

The change in China’s headline reserves is actually one of the least reliable indicators of China’s true intervention in the foreign currency market. Valuation changes create a lot of noise. And it is always possible for China to intervene in ways that do not show up in headline reserves. ...


June 6, 2016, 10:34 am, 1642900

I suspect the big jobs report meant that last Friday’s trade release got a bit less attention than normal.

The dollar’s strength continues to have the expected impact on real exports, more or less. Excluding petrol, real goods exports are down 2.5 percent in the first four months of the ...


June 2, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1642104

Abe’s rhetoric has not been German. Especially not recently.

But his policies over the last two years have been. At least until recently.

The International Monetary Fund’s fiscal department estimates that Japan did a consolidation of over 2 percentage points in 2014 and another half point or so of fiscal consolidation in ...