Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Brad Setser:  Follow the Money


September 26, 2016, 10:34 am, 1678532

With a bit of technical assistance, I was able to do a better job of quantifying the IMF’s recommended fiscal path for Japan.

The IMF wants a 50 to 100 basis point rise in Japan’s consumption tax every year for the foreseeable future, starting in 2017. ...


September 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1677610

Or at least it is on Bloomberg.

I wanted to elaborate on three points:

First, the increase in China’s tourism spending, if it is real, is huge. The reported rise in tourism spending by China since 2012 is about equal to the reported fall in Chinese commodity (primary product) imports. A ...


September 20, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1677087

The proxies that provide the best estimates of China’s actual intervention in the foreign currency market in August are out, and they in no way hint at the stress that emerged in Hong Kong’s interbank market in September.

The PBOC’s balance sheet shows foreign currency sales of between $25 and ...


September 19, 2016, 10:34 am, 1676575

Just before the global financial crisis, I wrote a paper on the geostrategic implications of the United States’ growing external debt—and specifically about the fact that the U.S.’s main external creditors were increasingly the reserve managers of other states, not private investors. Yes, there were large two-way gross private flows ...


September 15, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1673378

The Wall Street Journal, building on a point made by Peterson’s Jacob Kirkegaard, seems convinced that the policy mood has shifted, and Europe is now poised to use fiscal policy to support its recovery.

I, of course, would welcome such a shift. The eurozone runs an external surplus, is ...


September 12, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1672280

Back in May, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal argued that Germany didn’t need to stimulate its economy through an increase in public investment as its economy was already growing at a decent clip, and unemployment was low.

I wasn’t convinced then, and I am still not convinced.

A ...


September 9, 2016, 10:34 am, 1671532

I got my start, so to speak, tracking global reserve growth and then trying to map global reserve flows to the TIC data. So I have long thought that large scale central bank purchases of U.S. Treasuries and Agencies, and German bunds, and JGBs didn’t start with large scale asset purchase ...


September 8, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1671266

China released its end-August reserves, and there isn’t all that much to see. Valuation changes from currency moves do not seem to have been a big factor in August, the headline fall of around $15 billion is a reasnable estimate of the real fall. The best intervention measures — ...


September 6, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1670655

The Economist, inspired in part by a recent paper by Caballero, Farhi and Gourinchas, highlighted two key points in its free exchange column criticizing Germany’s surplus:

a) Global imbalances have reemerged over the last few years (though this is more obvious from summing the surpluses of surplus countries than ...


September 2, 2016, 12:34 am, 1669643

This isn’t another post about Germany.

Rather it is about Korea, in many ways the Germany of East Asia.

Korea has a current account surplus roughly equal to Germany’s—just below 8 percent in 2015, versus just over 8 percent for Germany.

Like Germany, Korea has a tight fiscal policy. Korea retained ...