May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Brad Setser: Follow the Money
Late last year Tim Duy asked for an assessment of the decision to allow China’s entry into the WTO 15 years on.
Greg Ip met the call well before I did, in a remarkable essay.
But I will give my own two cents. Be warned, this isn’t a short post. ...
The pace of decline in China’s foreign reserves matters.
Not because China is about to run out.
But rather because China will at some point decide that it doesn’t want to continue to prioritize “stability” (against a basket) and will instead prioritize the preservation of its reserves, and let the yuan adjust ...
I previously have noted that—if you exclude processing imports—China’s imports of manufactures are low relative to its GDP. I suspect the interlinked “China, Inc” connections between Party and State (described well by Mark Wu) have something to do with this. Manufactured imports, net of processing imports (processing imports are ...
I suspect that few variables will tell us more about the course of the global economy, and perhaps global policy, than the evolution of Chinese and U.S. exports. Sometimes the most important indicators are simple and straightforward.
China’s exports matter for a simple reason: they could provide the basis for a true ...
I want to step back a bit from the rather extraordinary moves in the offshore yuan market over the past few days. It seems quite clear that China’s authorities felt the need to signal that the yuan isn’t currently a one way bet against the dollar. ...
Christopher Balding (Balding’s World) highlights the risks from the interaction between PBOC tightening—whether because China’s own economy has picked up or a need to mimic the Fed’s tightening cycle —and rising levels of debt (mostly corporate debt, counting the debts of state enterprise as corporate) in a carefully argued ...
The broad dollar is now up well over 20 percent since the end of 2012. The vast bulk of the move occurred in the last two and a half years.
The dollar has essentially reversed its 2006 to 2013 period of sustained dollar (tied to the weakness of the U.S. ...
The dollar’s rise doesn’t just have an impact on the United States. It has an impact on all those around the world who borrow in dollars. And it can have an enormous impact on those countries that peg to the dollar (Saudi Arabia is the most significant) or that manage ...
A big caveat. Apple is being used to represent a lot companies with very valuable intellectual property (IP) that have built up similarly outsized piles of cash outside the United States; it is the most high-profile case, but it is hardly unique.
The iPhone, famously, is designed in California ...
I haven’t written about China’s tourism imports for a while. Suffice to say they remain a puzzle.
To recap quickly, China’s reported imports of tourism soared in 2014 and 2015—with imports of tourism (spending by Chinese residents travelling abroad) rising as fast as China’s imports of commodities fell (see