May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Brad Setser: Follow the Money
Here are two views of China’s (goods) trade. Both use the exact same data.
The first presents China’s goods exports and imports as a share of the rest of the world’s GDP:
The second presents China’s goods exports and imports as a share of China’s ...
From afar, it seems like the wheels of European policy may be moving towards some kind of near-term fix for either Italy’s banks—or, more likely, for the specific problems of Monte dei Paschi di Sienna.
The risk here is obvious. The intersection of Italian politics and European rules ...
Korea is one country in the world that unambiguously has fiscal space right now. Low government debt. The on-budget deficit was, until recently, more than offset by the off-budget surplus in Korea’s social security fund. With a slowing economy and a massive (almost
European and U.S. politics have gotten a lot of attention this summer.
But one of the biggest shifts in the global economy over the past two years has been the powerful return of Asia’s trade surplus. A $50 billion monthly (goods) surplus in China is quite big. China’s annual goods surplus ...
Both of the key proxies for China’s actual intervention in June are out.
The PBOC’s balances sheet shows a $15 billion dollar fall in reserves.
And the State Administration on Foreign Exchange (SAFE) data on foreign exchange settlement by the banking system (the PBOC is treated as part of the banks) shows ...
Turkey has long ranked at the top of most lists of financially vulnerable emerging economies, at least lists based on conventional vulnerability measures. Thanks to its combination of a large current account deficit and modest foreign exchange reserves, Turkey has many of the vulnerabilities that gave rise to 1990s-style ...
Global trade has not grown since the start of 2015.
Emerging market imports appear to be running somewhat below their 2014 levels.
Creeping protectionism? Perhaps.
But for now the underlying national data points to much more prosaic explanation.
The “turning” point in trade came just after oil prices fell.
And sharp falls ...
One small thing to remember: For China, the yuan value of its exports matters more than the dollar value of its exports. And the yuan value of China’s June exports was up slightly (buried in the Reuters story: “Exports in yuan terms rose 1.3 percent”).
One other thing to remember: China’s export ...
Rules are rules and all.
But the application of poorly conceived rules is still a problem. Especially in the face of a negative external shock.
The eurozone’s fiscal policy is, more or less, the fiscal policy adopted by its constituent member states.
Wolfgang Schauble (do follow the link) should ...
There are plenty of possible explanations for the surprise jump in China’s headline reserves in June.
A high allocation to yen (up around 6.5 percent), for example, or a low allocation to pounds (down nearly 8 percent).
Headline reserves are reported in dollars, and thus change when dollar value of euros, ...