Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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News from 1930

"Being a daily summary based upon my reading of the Wall Street Journal from the corresponding day in 1930.”

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223166

Note: Sorry for the delay in posting, but as you'll see this day was a pretty eventful one with about double the normal quota of news, and I didn't want to skimp on the coverage because of the significance of the events. Also, I'd ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223167
(Hopefully the first of a regular feature.)

Important note: None of this is intended as investment advice - please do your own due ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223168
Assorted historical stuff:

Editorial: While Americans are confident in men like W. Gifford and O. Young as the leaders of unemployment relief, “it is devoutly to be hoped that soon they will be ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223169

(Hopefully the first of a regular feature.)

One of my favorite things about doing this blog has been coming across the amazing ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223165
Continuing my little series on the amazing forgotten performers and artists of 1930. Our second Forgotten Genius is the extremely talented funnyman Eddie Cantor. It's ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223164
British crisis special:

“Great Britain's second day off the gold standard, as far as the man in the street was concerned, found the country carrying on under the war-time slogan 'business as ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223161
A commenter with the memorable ID of Pants-Happy recently asked to see a certain full-page Packard ad that I had referred to earlier. I find quite a few of the ads I come across from the 1930's to be noteworthy either for content or graphic design, which is why ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223162
[Note: Sorry for the gap in posting the past month - have been busy on some other projects. Will try and get back on a more regular schedule this month.]

British crisis update:

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223163

After writing my recent note on Eddie Cantor, I did a search on Amazon and was delighted to find that “Caught Short: ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223160
British crisis update:

Sterling continued to decline, opening at $3.91 and sagging to $3.81 (vs. $4.10 on Wed. and $4.85 the previous week); rest of the foreign currency list was unsettled, though francs and Swiss ...