Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
November Payroll Employment
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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Blitz Bits (Steve Blitz)
"Blitz Bits on Capital Markets & the Economy
Policymakers’ Doings, Economic Data, and Capital Market Pricing”
July 3, 2011, 10:34 pm, 870773
The “Great Recession” didn’t give way to the “Great Depression” – rather it transformed itself into the “Great Stall”. The July ISM data underscored the current circumstance with reported declines in net new orders in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is hard to interpret the ADP reported ...
July 3, 2011, 10:34 pm, 870772
Looking at the 64,000 private sector jobs created in September, after accounting for the usual 24,000 in health care, the rest were either in temporary business services or at restaurants (which is kind of temporary work as well). Thankfully people who are employed still like to eat out.
May 19, 2011, 10:34 am, 855791
When does the Fed first tighten? We will know the answer by September. By that time the economy will have worked through enough of the current downside risks listed in the most interesting addition to the minutes. To the extent that the recovery is still intact by the fall we ...
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810698
As we wait for the Fed to hint to us their plan for scaling back their security holdings (they are already talking with broker/dealers regarding reverse repos) there has been a rising chorus of economists, analysts, and pundits singing that not only is the recession declared to be over but ...
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810697
The Fed has moved from agnostic to true believer when it comes to economic recovery. More specifically, they see a "V" shaped return to positive growth as a better bet than a slow upturn. They signaled their upgrade of the economy's prospects by stating that economic activity has "picked up" ...
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810696
It is important to remember that durable goods data are notoriously volatile from month to month so patterns and trends inform more than point estimates. Looking at nondefense capital goods less aircraft the pattern of sales, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories suggests that the worst of the recession is over ...
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810693
On the eve of the September employment data, the ISM data released this morning bodes well . . .
To read the rest of this article please go to
Pangea Market Advisory website.
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810695
The calendar turns to October -- historically the most volatile month in the year (see chart). It is also telling that the average price change for the month is close to zero (see chart). In other words, there is no bias to the direction of price in the first month ...
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810694
Second quarter GDP data for corporate profits present a level of cash flow that has usually been prologue to. . . .
To read whole article go to
Pangea Market Advisory
January 17, 2011, 12:34 am, 810689
In the past several years there have been some divergent valuations between the credit and equity markets, with the equity market tending towards the more optimistic. The chart below compares the P/E ratio of the S&P500 Industrial sector to the option adjusted spread (OAS) of the Merrill Lynch BBB Coporate ...
