Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Blitz Bits (Steve Blitz)

"Blitz Bits on Capital Markets & the Economy

Policymakers’ Doings, Economic Data, and Capital Market Pricing”

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501880
Pronouncements that the “Great Recession” is over require third quarter spending to continue into the final three months of the year. While it looks like Wall Street employees will have the cash to buy holiday gifts, the country is a lot bigger and today’s retail sales give some pause to ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501881
In the past several years there have been some divergent valuations between the credit and equity markets, with the equity market tending towards the more optimistic. The chart below compares the P/E ratio of the S&P500 Industrial sector to the option adjusted spread (OAS) of the Merrill Lynch BBB Coporate ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501882
The price of gold is up sharply and so is the chatter about inflation, debt, and the demise of Western Civilization. At a time when the critical global economic issue is unbalanced growth the golden chatter ignores gold’s price in real dollars versus gold’s nominal price in yen, euros, and ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501883
I have been writing on the technical outlook for Treasury yields for some time and since the spring my forecast has been for a second half rally based on two factors. First, Treasuries rally in the second half of the year. I can not give anyone a good reason why ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501879
The "cash-for-clunkers" program has been the subject of more negative comments and bad puns than anything an administration has put out for a long long time. Most of the comments have focused on the program's inevitable failure to permanently raise the level of spending for autos and/or anything else. By ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501878
The production and capacity numbers released this morning indicate that the recession likely ended in June. But it as important, if not more so, to recognize that the reported 70.45% capacity utilization rate only just reaches the 70.93% low of the 1981-82 recession (the previous worst economic crisis since the ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501875
Even after accounting for government-program induced spending on cars and homes, there were enough positive signs in the data this morning to signal that a statistical end to the recession has occurred. The big jump in GDP will. . . .

To read the whole article ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501876
We are all guilty of converting data into changes, percent changes or percent changes of the percent change for the purpose of identifying early a change in trend. I thought it would be a good idea today to just look at the dollar amount of new orders for durable goods ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501877
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke today on "Asia and the Global Financial Crisis" at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Conference on Asia and the Global Financial Crisis, Santa Barbara, California. This call for balanced growth policies in Asia has been made before by Bernanke, Geithner, Summers and ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501874
The obvious truism is that turning monthly job losses into gains means getting firms to hire and the Diffusion Index shows that along those lines the number of firms adding workers has only managed to improve to levels equal to the lows of previous post-war recessions.

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