Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Blitz Bits (Steve Blitz)

"Blitz Bits on Capital Markets & the Economy

Policymakers’ Doings, Economic Data, and Capital Market Pricing”

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771403
By focusing on the monthly bounces in the housing data one risks missing the bigger point – the two main assets supporting household balance sheets and, by extension, the global economy at large, have nowhere to go but sideways. Equities and homes are priced to a level that can be ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771404
The consumer is back but only for holidays, birthdays and anniversaries. Yes, the April data are a payback for the boost to March from the early Easter but to end the analysis there is to understate how much more careful consumers are about spending their money. Control retail sales (sales ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771405
The headline number showed the trade balance worsening by $996 million in March and the culprit was oil prices. The balance of trade in services improved by $813 million and the balance of trade in goods net of oil improved by $296 million – a $1.1 billion improvement in the ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771406
The obvious truism is that turning monthly job losses into gains means getting firms to hire and the Diffusion Index shows that along those lines the number of firms adding workers has only managed to improve to levels equal to the lows of previous post-war recessions.

To Read ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771402
It is time to stop searching for the right letter to describe the recovery. It isn’t a V and it won’t be a W, it is a hyphen – flat, low growth indicative of an economy in the process of deleveraging. There is no other interpretation for an add of ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771401
Retail sales are not as negative as the headline, but they were also never as positive as April’s headline. Core retail sales, sales without spending for autos, building materials and gasoline, was up 0.10% in May after falling 0.22% in April. Discretionary retail sales, purchases of items people don’t have ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771398
Looking at the 64,000 private sector jobs created in September, after accounting for the usual 24,000 in health care, the rest were either in temporary business services or at restaurants (which is kind of temporary work as well). Thankfully people who are employed still like to eat out.

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771399
The “Great Recession” didn’t give way to the “Great Depression” – rather it transformed itself into the “Great Stall”. The July ISM data underscored the current circumstance with reported declines in net new orders in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is hard to interpret the ADP reported ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771400
The FOMC is officially worried about growth and deflation risk and they are at the ready to act if need be. Financial conditions have become “less supportive of economic growth” but don’t believe for a minute that the reason rests on ”developments abroad” -- the economic recovery is now “proceeding” ...

September 12, 2017, 1:13 pm, 1771397
When does the Fed first tighten? We will know the answer by September. By that time the economy will have worked through enough of the current downside risks listed in the most interesting addition to the minutes. To the extent that the recovery is still intact by the fall we ...