The Problem - I
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of
the problem we face.
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The Problem - II
Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of
the housing tailspin.
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Special Topic 8/4/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +42,000
BLS: -131,000/+71,000
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topics 6/28/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +13,000
BLS: -125,000/+83,000
CBO: Take your pick.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10
James Hamilton summarizes the situation.
EconModel
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Blitz Bits (Steve Blitz)
"Blitz Bits on Capital Markets & the Economy
Policymakers’ Doings, Economic Data, and Capital Market Pricing”
August 5, 2010, 10:34 am, 744510
The “Great Recession” didn’t give way to the “Great Depression” – rather it transformed itself into the “Great Stall”. The July ISM data underscored the current circumstance with reported declines in net new orders in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is hard to interpret the ADP reported ...
June 23, 2010, 4:34 pm, 722219
The FOMC is officially worried about growth and deflation risk and they are at the ready to act if need be. Financial conditions have become “less supportive of economic growth” but don’t believe for a minute that the reason rests on ”developments abroad” -- the economic recovery is now “proceeding” ...
June 11, 2010, 10:34 am, 715942
Retail sales are not as negative as the headline, but they were also never as positive as April’s headline. Core retail sales, sales without spending for autos, building materials and gasoline, was up 0.10% in May after falling 0.22% in April. Discretionary retail sales, purchases of items people don’t have ...
June 4, 2010, 2:34 pm, 712397
It is time to stop searching for the right letter to describe the recovery. It isn’t a V and it won’t be a W, it is a hyphen – flat, low growth indicative of an economy in the process of deleveraging. There is no other interpretation for an add of ...
May 25, 2010, 10:34 am, 706919
By focusing on the monthly bounces in the housing data one risks missing the bigger point – the two main assets supporting household balance sheets and, by extension, the global economy at large, have nowhere to go but sideways. Equities and homes are priced to a level that can be ...
May 14, 2010, 10:34 am, 701618
The consumer is back but only for holidays, birthdays and anniversaries. Yes, the April data are a payback for the boost to March from the early Easter but to end the analysis there is to understate how much more careful consumers are about spending their money. Control retail sales (sales ...
May 12, 2010, 12:34 pm, 700371
The headline number showed the trade balance worsening by $996 million in March and the culprit was oil prices. The balance of trade in services improved by $813 million and the balance of trade in goods net of oil improved by $296 million – a $1.1 billion improvement in the ...
January 11, 2010, 8:34 pm, 630197
We are all guilty of converting data into changes, percent changes or percent changes of the percent change for the purpose of identifying early a change in trend. I thought it would be a good idea today to just look at the dollar amount of new orders for durable goods ...
January 11, 2010, 8:34 pm, 630195
The obvious truism is that turning monthly job losses into gains means getting firms to hire and the Diffusion Index shows that along those lines the number of firms adding workers has only managed to improve to levels equal to the lows of previous post-war recessions.
To Read ...
January 11, 2010, 8:34 pm, 630196
Even after accounting for government-program induced spending on cars and homes, there were enough positive signs in the data this morning to signal that a statistical end to the recession has occurred. The big jump in GDP will. . . .
To read the whole article ...
