Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Blitz Bits (Steve Blitz)

"Blitz Bits on Capital Markets & the Economy

Policymakers’ Doings, Economic Data, and Capital Market Pricing”


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294449
Second quarter GDP data for corporate profits present a level of cash flow that has usually been prologue to. . . .

To read whole article go to Pangea Market Advisory


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294451
It is important to remember that durable goods data are notoriously volatile from month to month so patterns and trends inform more than point estimates. Looking at nondefense capital goods less aircraft the pattern of sales, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories suggests that the worst of the recession is over ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294452
The Fed has moved from agnostic to true believer when it comes to economic recovery. More specifically, they see a "V" shaped return to positive growth as a better bet than a slow upturn. They signaled their upgrade of the economy's prospects by stating that economic activity has "picked up" ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294450
The calendar turns to October -- historically the most volatile month in the year (see chart). It is also telling that the average price change for the month is close to zero (see chart). In other words, there is no bias to the direction of price in the first month ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294432
Retail sales are not as negative as the headline, but they were also never as positive as April’s headline. Core retail sales, sales without spending for autos, building materials and gasoline, was up 0.10% in May after falling 0.22% in April. Discretionary retail sales, purchases of items people don’t have ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294433
It is time to stop searching for the right letter to describe the recovery. It isn’t a V and it won’t be a W, it is a hyphen – flat, low growth indicative of an economy in the process of deleveraging. There is no other interpretation for an add of ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294431
The FOMC is officially worried about growth and deflation risk and they are at the ready to act if need be. Financial conditions have become “less supportive of economic growth” but don’t believe for a minute that the reason rests on ”developments abroad” -- the economic recovery is now “proceeding” ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294428
When does the Fed first tighten? We will know the answer by September. By that time the economy will have worked through enough of the current downside risks listed in the most interesting addition to the minutes. To the extent that the recovery is still intact by the fall we ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294429
Looking at the 64,000 private sector jobs created in September, after accounting for the usual 24,000 in health care, the rest were either in temporary business services or at restaurants (which is kind of temporary work as well). Thankfully people who are employed still like to eat out.


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294430
The “Great Recession” didn’t give way to the “Great Depression” – rather it transformed itself into the “Great Stall”. The July ISM data underscored the current circumstance with reported declines in net new orders in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is hard to interpret the ADP reported ...