Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Baseline Scenario

"What happened to the global economy and what we can do about it?”


December 2, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1699375

By James Kwak

I wrote two days ago about the fairy tale that you can lower tax rates for the very rich yet avoid raising their actual taxes by eliminating those mythical beasts, loopholes and deductions. The basic problem with this story is that, at the very high end of ...


December 2, 2016, 10:34 am, 1699241

By James Kwak

My new book—Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality—is coming out on January 10 (although, of course, you can pre-order it from your local monopoly now). If you’d like more information about the book, the book website is now up at economism.net. (I used ...


November 30, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1698685

By James Kwak

Incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin promised a big tax cut for corporations and the “middle class,” but not for the rich. “Any tax cuts for the upper class will be offset by less deductions that pay for it,” he said on CNBC.

This is impossible.

The tax cutting mantra ...


November 17, 2016, 8:34 am, 1695073

By James Kwak

Several of my friends, some of whom I haven’t spoken with in a long time, have reached out to me over the past week to discuss what to make of last week’s election. I imagine this is happening with a lot of people.

Although I don’t have any simple ...


November 10, 2016, 10:34 am, 1692787

By James Kwak

[Updated to add another headline leading with “white voters.”]

Two days later, some of the world’s leading newspapers—or their headline-writers, at least—are saying it was all or largely about race:


November 8, 2016, 8:34 am, 1691839

By James Kwak

This election day, spare a thought for the largest group of citizens who aren’t eligible to vote: children.

My four-year old just learned that he doesn't get to vote tomorrow and he burst into tears and I feel for him.

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers)


October 30, 2016, 10:34 am, 1688312

By James Kwak

The evening that he won the Iowa caucus in January 2008, Barack Obama said this:

Hope is the bedrock of this nation. The belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for ...


October 29, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1688152

By James Kwak

Like many analytically minded liberals, I’m good at identifying problems and less good at coming up with solutions—a common disease sometimes called the “last chapter problem.” I recently finished reading The Reconnection Agenda by Jared Bernstein (which you can even download from his blog), which takes the opposite ...


October 24, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1686167

By James Kwak

If you live in Massachusetts, early voting has begun. You can ask for an early ballot by mail, or just find a polling place here. ...


October 21, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1685715

By James Kwak

Mike Konczal wrote an article a few days back arguing that various progressive policies aimed at helping poor people would not be able to pry the “white working class” away from Donald Trump and Trumpism. I think the article was insightful and intelligently argued. This was ...