Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economy Experts

National Journal Expert Blogs:  Economy


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509157

Remarks last week from New York Fed President William C. Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested that the Fed is leaning toward another round of quantitative easing. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting isn't until early November, but let's say it was held today -- and you ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509162

New survey research indicates that recent efforts to stimulate the economy with tax rebates have been remarkably inefficient. The 2008 rebate, distributed in a lump sum check, led only 25 percent of recipients to increase spending, according to this paper. Partly because of evidence that the 2008 rebate didn't ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509160

With the economic recovery sputtering, leaders in both parties have put forward proposals intended to jumpstart job growth. Last week, President Obama proposed a $50 billion R&D tax credit and a provision allowing businesses to expense investment costs. Republicans leaders have kept up a steady drumbeat for spending cuts and ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509161

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to indicate last week that more purchases of non-Treasury assets are a prominent option for the Fed if the economy continues to flag. While the Fed has little experience in these purchases, he said, selling off these assets when necessary to quell inflation should ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509159

The Federal Reserve confirmed on Friday that corporate America is still quietly sitting on $1.8 trillion in unspent cash and assets. President Obama, top Republicans and business leaders are all trying to bring that money in from the sidelines because, if invested, it could put millions of Americans to work. ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509158

The Republican Party's "Pledge to America," released last week, contains several measures intended to boost the economy and stimulate job growth. It calls for more than $100 billion in unspecified spending cuts, permanent extension of all Bush-era tax cuts and a requirement for Congress to approve any executive-branch regulations that ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509151

In the two decades before the financial crisis, there was remarkably little partisan or ideological disagreement among economists about how the Federal Reserve should conduct monetary policy. Liberals and conservatives both wanted to keep inflation below about 2 percent and unemployment below about 5 percent. Disagreements were over nuance and ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509150

How much further can the housing market sink? When will it begin to rebound?

Home prices have plunged by about one-third since the peak of the housing bubble, according to the S&P/Case Schiller composite index of 20 major cities. Sales of new and existing homes slumped again after the expiration of ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509148

A single paragraph in the Transportation Department's fiscal 2012 budget could fundamentally alter the funding mechanism for highways and other transit. The administration is calling for replacing the current highway trust fund with a "transportation trust fund" that will have separate accounts for highways, transit, high-speed rail, and a national ...


July 14, 2015, 5:38 pm, 1509149

Home prices have plunged by about one-third since the peak of the housing bubble, according to the S&P/Case Schiller composite index of 20 major cities. Sales of new and existing homes slumped again after the expiration of the Home Buyer's tax credit. And on Monday, Corelogic reported ...