Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
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Economy Experts
National Journal Expert Blogs: Economy
As the Senate closes in on legislation to revamp bank regulations, there are reports that the bill will substantially water down the Obama administration's late-day proposal of the so-called "Volcker rule," which would effectively limit the size and trading activities of depository banks. For a good defense of the Volcker ...
Using his original research on fiscal multipliers, Harvard economist Robert Barro argues in the Wall Street Journal that the Obama stimulus has actually lowered gross domestic product by a large amount. Berkeley economist Brad De Long has this thoughtful critique of Barro's case. What do you make of ...
According to this roundup by the excellent TaxVox blog at the Tax Policy Center, there are rumblings of a shift in China's willingness to keep funding America's debt binge. Is such a shift likely? Why or why not? What would be the consequences of a significant slowdown in China's ...
What are the implications for the United States of the weakening recovery in Europe and the debt crisis in Greece and other European Union countries? Are these factors large enough to reverse the expansion or revive financial crisis here?
Economy expert and Syracuse University professor Len Burman proposed in the Washington Post last week an alternative to the modest savings from President Obama's spending freeze -- a freeze in some "tax expenditures," those exemptions in the tax code for different groups that work effectively like spending programs for special ...
In wondering what kind of recovery it will be, Robert Shiller returns to the mystery of the productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 1980s and asks what role public pessimism might play in causing a sustained economic malaise. Was psychology that important in the 1930s? What role might ...
One unanswered question behind the debate over public debt and long term deficits: At what level does the size of America's public debt become a significant drag on economic growth? It clearly varies from country to country, and from era to era, but when would that occur for the United ...
Updated at 9:06 a.m. on Jan. 19.
Expert Blog contributor Desmond Lachman has been making the argument -- for example, in this letter and here -- that the unfolding economic crises in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal constitute a major threat to the global economic recovery. He observes that ...
There has been widespread speculation that the credit crisis and the recession would lead to a long-term shift in household saving. And saving did rise from the very low levels before 2008 and increased more or less steadily through this spring. But as the "green shoots" improvement in the economy ...
The New York Times has sparked interest in the idea of a tax credit for job creation, an idea in recent Democratic presidential campaigns (John Kerry and Barack Obama both proposed it) and one that apparently now has some Republican support. According to one version, it might work ...