Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


November Payroll Employment


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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National Journal Expert Blogs:  Economy


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871030

New survey research indicates that recent efforts to stimulate the economy with tax rebates have been remarkably inefficient. The 2008 rebate, distributed in a lump sum check, led only 25 percent of recipients to increase spending, according to this paper. Partly because of evidence that the 2008 rebate didn't ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871029

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to indicate last week that more purchases of non-Treasury assets are a prominent option for the Fed if the economy continues to flag. While the Fed has little experience in these purchases, he said, selling off these assets when necessary to quell inflation should ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871027

The Federal Reserve confirmed on Friday that corporate America is still quietly sitting on $1.8 trillion in unspent cash and assets. President Obama, top Republicans and business leaders are all trying to bring that money in from the sidelines because, if invested, it could put millions of Americans to work. ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871028

With the economic recovery sputtering, leaders in both parties have put forward proposals intended to jumpstart job growth. Last week, President Obama proposed a $50 billion R&D tax credit and a provision allowing businesses to expense investment costs. Republicans leaders have kept up a steady drumbeat for spending cuts and ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871026

The Republican Party's "Pledge to America," released last week, contains several measures intended to boost the economy and stimulate job growth. It calls for more than $100 billion in unspecified spending cuts, permanent extension of all Bush-era tax cuts and a requirement for Congress to approve any executive-branch regulations that ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871025

Remarks last week from New York Fed President William C. Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested that the Fed is leaning toward another round of quantitative easing. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting isn't until early November, but let's say it was held today -- and you ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871023

All this past month, the foreclosure fraud scandal has been spreading, and toward the end of this week, markets began taking notice -- punishing stocks of banks exposed to documentation fraud. But what are the real implications of this morass? In a year, will we look back on this as ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871022

Did Group of 20 ministers make any progress toward agreement on currency and "balanced growth" issues at their weekend meeting in South Korea? Based on what happened, what do you think the prospects are for the G-20 summit next month?

-- Ed Andrews, NationalJournal.com


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871020

When President Obama meets with leaders from other Group of 20 nations this week, what is he most likely to accomplish in terms of persuading countries to adopt more "balanced'' growth strategies? The United States has been imploring countries that rely on exports for growth and have huge trade surpluses, ...


July 3, 2011, 11:33 pm, 871021

Will the prospect of greater political gridlock in Washington, especially on deficit reduction, become a tangible source of fear in financial markets? If Republicans block any tax increases and neither side wants to touch entitlement spending for anybody older that 55, what are the chances Congress can come up ...