Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economy Experts

National Journal Expert Blogs:  Economy


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423519

With the economic recovery sputtering, leaders in both parties have put forward proposals intended to jumpstart job growth. Last week, President Obama proposed a $50 billion R&D tax credit and a provision allowing businesses to expense investment costs. Republicans leaders have kept up a steady drumbeat for spending cuts and ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423521

New survey research indicates that recent efforts to stimulate the economy with tax rebates have been remarkably inefficient. The 2008 rebate, distributed in a lump sum check, led only 25 percent of recipients to increase spending, according to this paper. Partly because of evidence that the 2008 rebate didn't ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423520

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to indicate last week that more purchases of non-Treasury assets are a prominent option for the Fed if the economy continues to flag. While the Fed has little experience in these purchases, he said, selling off these assets when necessary to quell inflation should ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423512

Will the prospect of greater political gridlock in Washington, especially on deficit reduction, become a tangible source of fear in financial markets? If Republicans block any tax increases and neither side wants to touch entitlement spending for anybody older that 55, what are the chances Congress can come up ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423513

Did Group of 20 ministers make any progress toward agreement on currency and "balanced growth" issues at their weekend meeting in South Korea? Based on what happened, what do you think the prospects are for the G-20 summit next month?

-- Ed Andrews, NationalJournal.com


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423511

When President Obama meets with leaders from other Group of 20 nations this week, what is he most likely to accomplish in terms of persuading countries to adopt more "balanced'' growth strategies? The United States has been imploring countries that rely on exports for growth and have huge trade surpluses, ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423508

Home prices have plunged by about one-third since the peak of the housing bubble, according to the S&P/Case Schiller composite index of 20 major cities. Sales of new and existing homes slumped again after the expiration of the Home Buyer's tax credit. And on Monday, Corelogic reported ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423507

A single paragraph in the Transportation Department's fiscal 2012 budget could fundamentally alter the funding mechanism for highways and other transit. The administration is calling for replacing the current highway trust fund with a "transportation trust fund" that will have separate accounts for highways, transit, high-speed rail, and a national ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423509

How much further can the housing market sink? When will it begin to rebound?

Home prices have plunged by about one-third since the peak of the housing bubble, according to the S&P/Case Schiller composite index of 20 major cities. Sales of new and existing homes slumped again after the expiration of ...


February 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1423510

In the two decades before the financial crisis, there was remarkably little partisan or ideological disagreement among economists about how the Federal Reserve should conduct monetary policy. Liberals and conservatives both wanted to keep inflation below about 2 percent and unemployment below about 5 percent. Disagreements were over nuance and ...