Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Stephanomics (Stephanie Flanders)

"From the BBC’s economics editor Stephanie Flanders”


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501525

Jean-Claude Trichet was more dove-ish than expected in his press conference today after the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest meeting. The city was surprised, but Mario Draghi may come to be grateful.

You might not have taken Trichet for a dove, listening to his stern words about the "upside" risks ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501526

What's the difference between a developing country financial crisis and a European one? The answer is that emerging market crises are usually done and dusted in a matter of weeks - whereas in Europe they really like to drag things out.

Watching the eurozone these past two years has been ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501527

The Federal Reserve chairman's first regular press conference in the US central bank's 98-year history was supposed to make more news when it was announced than when it actually took place. And so it proved. There was nothing much to rile the markets in Ben Bernanke's comments - on the ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501528

For once, the first estimate for growth in the first quarter is in line with expectations - but it would be hard to argue that it's good news.

Not so long ago, many were hoping for a strong bounceback from the slowdown at the end of 2010. Instead, the figures ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501524

The "epic rout" in commodity markets in recent days has left some traders and investors in a state of shock. But, if the damage turns out to be localised, Ben Bernanke will consider it useful - and we probably should as well.

The fall in prices - which has pushed the ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501523

Outside of wartime, serious governments don't default. And if they do, it's a seismic market event. That's why the European authorities will do everything to prevent Greece from going down that path.

But there are plenty of ways to lower a country's debt burden which stop short of a formal ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501520

You don't go to Inflation Report press conferences nowadays to get cheered up. The "news", if we can call it that, is that the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) now thinks inflation will be significantly higher than they previously thought, not just in 2011 but in 2012. Indeed, if reality ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501521

Here's what I learned from spending almost an entire day in Greece.

First, most Greeks I spoke to don't want the country to default on its obligations, and the average person there probably has a better idea of what a default would mean for the country in the short-term than some ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501522

Everyone says that heightened talk of a Greek default is proof that last year's bail-out has "failed". But you could make a strong case for the opposite.

In reality, all that the Greek support programme last year was ever going to do was buy time. And that is exactly what ...


July 5, 2015, 12:05 am, 1501519

Stephanomics is dead. Long live Stephanomics. Today's news is that this blog is moving to a new home with a fresh format.

I know, change is hard, but they tell me it's going to better - and if it isn't, I know you'll be the first to tell me. At ...