May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Taking Hayek Seriously
"The Home Of The Friedrich Hayek Scholars Page”
Thomas Kuhn describes how science proceeds working on normal science puzzles which have anticipated non-problematic solutions. When those don’t work out, scientists begin to rethinking the conceptual space, the empirical problem to be explained, and the possible explanatory solutions to these re-thought problems, see for example, what Darwin, Einstein, and ...
By the happenstance of family, Hayek became one of the first ever to read Ludwig Wittgestein’s landmark Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus. Wittgenstein manages to tie the phenomenological positivism of Ernst Mach and Bertrand Russell to the new logic of Gottlob Frege using a procedure which isolates the purely formal and logical ...
Earlier I outlined Hayek’s normal science research program and I began to suggest how anomalies developed in that program, conflicts arose with others working on those same normal science puzzles, and how these anomalies and conflicts set Hayek on the path toward his Copernican Revolution in the explanatory strategy ...
There is an important new book on some of the theorists who helped inspire and deeply influenced Hayek’s work in the theory of mind, knowledge and brain:
Hayek’s multi-dimensional normal science research project, tackling the relation between the new marginal valuation logic and the old problem 0f distribution theory (among several other problems) opened Hayek’s eyes to how the math construction of economics had blinded economists to the central problems, structures and causal processes of the market ...
Economists do not understand Hayek.
They simply don’t.
I want here to explain in simple terms what economists don’t get, and what they would grasp if they were to ever understood what Hayek is doing.
Thomas Kuhn explains how roadblocks to explanatory success, and conceptual novelties inspired by explanatory failure, providing new avenues ...
David Wilson has asked me to read his discussion of Hayek and the growing literature on multilevel selection modeling and the wider literature of human cultural evolution. This is my reply which I hope he will welcome in the spirit of filling the gap in the literature on “the ...