Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Taking Hayek Seriously

"The Home Of The Friedrich Hayek Scholars Page”

Greg Ransom


May 16, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1637084

Economists do not understand Hayek.

They simply don’t.

I want here to explain in simple terms what economists don’t get, and what they would grasp if they were to ever understood what Hayek is doing.

Thomas Kuhn explains how roadblocks to explanatory success, and conceptual novelties inspired by explanatory failure, providing new avenues ...


February 23, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1611472

David Wilson has asked me to read his discussion of Hayek and the growing literature on group selection modeling and the wider literature of human cultural evolution. This is my reply which I hope he will welcome in the spirit of filling the gap in the literature on “the ...


February 11, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1607733

Hayek’s multi-dimensional normal science research project, tackling the relation between the new marginal valuation logic and the old problem distribution theory, among other problems, opened Hayek’s eyes to how the math construction of economics had blinded economists to the central problems, structures and causal processes of the market economy.  What ...


November 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1583339

There is an important new book on some of the theorists who helped inspire and deeply influenced Hayek’s work in the theory of mind, knowledge and brain:

The Realistic Empiricism of Mach, James, and Russell: Neutral Monism Reconceived


November 29, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1583319

By the happenstance of family, Hayek became one of the first ever to read Ludwig Wittgestein’s landmark Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus. Wittgenstein manages to tie the phenomenological positivism of Ernst Mach and Bertrand Russell to the new logic of Gottlob Frege using a procedure which isolates the purely formal and logical ...


November 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1583257

Earlier I outlined Hayek’s normal science research program and I began to suggest how anomalies developed in that program, conflicts arose with others working on those same normal science puzzles, and how these anomalies and conflicts set Hayek on the path toward his Copernican Revolution in the explanatory strategy ...


November 24, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1581684

The work of Bruce Caldwell and others on nature and significance of Hayek’s solution to the explanatory problem of economics outlined in his 1936 paper “Economics and Knowledge” and developed thereafter has been deeply flawed because because these account grasp neither Hayek original problem situation nor the nature and ...


November 11, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1575039

Friedrich Hayek’s books are written at a high level of abstraction, often with few examples, tackling topics of genuine complexity. But what he writes about can be of enormous interests, with much more left to be said or illustrated with examples from the real world. What follows are books I ...


July 23, 2015, 3:03 am, 1514034

When we get ourselves into conceptual trouble or when we find ourselves in contentious disagreement with our colleagues it serves us well to locate and articulate where the trouble spots are, and perhaps also doing a bit of reconsideration of what the project at hand is about. This is exactly ...


June 12, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1490416