Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.

Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

RSS Feed

Fama/French Forum

""ideas and observations from Fama and French”

September 27, 2018, 3:06 pm, 1903140
By Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French The high volatility of stock returns is common knowledge, but many investors may not fully appreciate the implications of return volatility. Investors cannot draw strong inferences about expected returns from three, five, or even ten years of realized returns. Those who act on such ...

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859396
The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), developed by Eugene Fama in the 1960s, simply states that prices reflect all available information. Despite its simplicity, the EMH has been difficult to test and generated decades of debate. In this video, Gene and Richard Thaler, a founding father of behavioral economics, discuss whether ...

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859398

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859397
In this video, Andrew Lo—Professor of Finance at MIT Sloan—speaks with Eugene Fama about the arc of Gene’s empirical and theoretical research. The topics covered in this interview range from Gene’s PhD dissertation on The Behavior of Stock Market Prices which laid the groundwork for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, to ...

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859395
David Booth, chairman and co-CEO of Dimensional Fund Advisors, has been working with Eugene Fama since the mid-1960s. David was a PhD student in Gene’s class and later asked Gene to become a board member when Dimensional got off the ground in 1981. Gene is the principal scholar whose groundbreaking ...

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859394
KRF: What does it mean to say there is a flight to quality? For every seller there must be a buyer. After exploring this simple point, I explain how expectations about future cashflows and future returns affect the current price.

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859392

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859393
KRF: I explain why active investing is always a negative sum game. We often hear that now is a good time (or a bad time) for active investing. That does not make sense. In aggregate, active investors always underperform by their fees and expenses.

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859360
EFF: I spoke with Client Insights host Dan Richards about the importance of effectively communicating the risks associated with equity investing. Also, I discuss how Warren Buffett's success is more properly viewed in the context of business ownership than equity investment.

May 18, 2018, 7:26 pm, 1859359
EFF: I talked with Client Insights host Dan Richards about the problems with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the development of the Fama/French three-factor model as a more accurate way of determining how average returns differ from one another. I also explain why higher expected returns for small and value ...