Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Fama/French Forum

""ideas and observations from Fama and French”


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295015
EFF: In an interview with Client Insights host Dan Richards, I explain the key findings of the paper "Luck vs. Skill in Mutual Fund Performance" that Ken French and I published in 2010. Looking at funds over their entire lifetimes, only 3% demonstrate skill after accounting for ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295016
EFF: I talked with Client Insights host Dan Richards about the problems with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the development of the Fama/French three-factor model as a more accurate way of determining how average returns differ from one another. I also explain why higher expected returns ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295017
EFF: I spoke with Client Insights host Dan Richards about the importance of effectively communicating the risks associated with equity investing. Also, I discuss how Warren Buffett's success is more properly viewed in the context of business ownership than equity investment.


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295018
EFF: Last week I was interviewed by James Mackintosh from the Financial Times. We discussed the relevance of market efficiency for investors, the definition of market "bubbles," and measurements of active manager outcomes. Watch the seven-minute interview here: Defending efficient markets (Financial Times).


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295014
EFF: I have a new paper, "Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?". In it, I find that The Federal funds rate, FF, moves strongly toward the Fed's target, TF, but other rates show little day-to-day convergence to TF. When the Fed changes TF, it moves toward ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295013
EFF: I shared with CNNMoney a piece of advice I received from a statistics professor that has guided my research for 50 years.


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295010

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295011
KRF: It is a privilege to congratulate my colleague Gene Fama for his well-deserved Nobel Prize. Although Gene's research has transformed our understanding of finance, his contributions to the research of others have had an even bigger impact on our field. I can't imagine a better mentor, ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295012

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295009
EFF: In an interview for Nobel Media, Adam Smith and I spoke on many topics, including the pros and cons of having research debated in the public sphere and the unique research environment at Chicago. You can find the podcast here.