Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Economists’ Forum

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673985

The collpse of Lehman was similiar to a stroke causing neuronal hubs to die. Getty Images

By James Park

With the start of QE3 and indefinite bond buying by the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673986

By Heleen Mees

There is a fierce debate over the origins of the disappointing economic growth seen in advanced economies. On one side there is former world chess champion and political activist Garry Kasparov and internet entrepreneur Peter Thiel, while on the other, there is Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economist.

Mr ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673987

By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda

The global economic recovery is on the ropes, battered by political conflicts within and across countries, lack of decisive policy actions, and governments’ inability to tackle deep-seated problems such as unsustainable public finances that are stifling growth. Growth in global trade has weakened and the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673988

By Kevin P. Gallagher

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, should be applauded for boldly putting employment over price stability in his latest move to keep interest rates low and to purchase mortgage-backed securities. Bernanke’s critics (and Bernanke himself) have rightly said ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673984

Latest US spending programme could tip country into a recession. Getty Images

By John H. Makin and Daniel Hanson

An abrupt spending sequester at a rate of about $110bn per ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673983

By Heleen Mees

The fourth largest bank in the Netherlands, SNS Reaal NV, finds itself in trouble. The banking and insurance group, with €134bn worth of assets on its balance sheet as of the end of June 2012, has suffered €2.3bn in losses on its foreign – mostly Spanish – property ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673980

By Catharine B. Hill

The recession continues to create challenges for higher education in the US. Appropriate responses depend on expectations for the economy in the future, and whether the shocks we have experienced are short- or longer-term trends. Moody’s US Higher Education Outlook Negative in 2013 report does little to ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673981

By Dr Miles Livingston

The legendary John Bogle, founder and former chief executive of The Vanguard Group, recently met with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to urge it to propose a rule that would require anyone providing retail investment advice to act as a fiduciary.

Mr Bogle and two other representatives ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673982

By Professor Simon Deakin

Under the government’s current proposals for employment law reform, employees will be able to give up rights concerning unfair dismissal, redundancy pay, flexible working and time off for training in return for receiving shares in the company that employs them, gains on which will be exempt from ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673979

By Mthuli Ncube and Michael Fairbanks

Which is more probable: Africa becomes a virtual international province of China, the main source of its sub-soil assets, and the major component of China’s strategy for its own domestic stability; or China becomes a way African nations upgrade their economies and integrate into the ...