Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Economists’ Forum


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221455

By Mthuli Ncube and Michael Fairbanks

Which is more probable: Africa becomes a virtual international province of China, the main source of its sub-soil assets, and the major component of China’s strategy for its own domestic stability; or China becomes a way African nations upgrade their economies and integrate into the ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221456

By Catharine B. Hill

The recession continues to create challenges for higher education in the US. Appropriate responses depend on expectations for the economy in the future, and whether the shocks we have experienced are short- or longer-term trends. Moody’s US Higher Education Outlook Negative in 2013 report does little to ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221457

By Dr Miles Livingston

The legendary John Bogle, founder and former chief executive of The Vanguard Group, recently met with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to urge it to propose a rule that would require anyone providing retail investment advice to act as a fiduciary.

Mr Bogle and two other representatives ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221458

By Professor Simon Deakin

Under the government’s current proposals for employment law reform, employees will be able to give up rights concerning unfair dismissal, redundancy pay, flexible working and time off for training in return for receiving shares in the company that employs them, gains on which will be exempt from ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221454

By Heleen Mees

With anger directed towards bankers and rating agencies alike, this may be a good time to remember that low interest rates, rather than faulty mortgage products, are the root cause of the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession.

I once quipped that to understand the origins of the financial ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221453

By Kevin P. Gallagher

Negotiators will meet in Singapore this week for yet another round of talks on a Trans-Pacific Partnership – it is the 16th time in just a few years. A TPP would bring together key Pacific-rim countries into a trading bloc that the US hopes would counter China’s ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221450

By Lenos Trigeorgis

EU politicians have been locked in myopic and often self-defeating policies regarding bailout of troubled eurozone countries. They have insisted, in principle correctly, that troubled countries bring their finances to a sustainable path. But the austerity measures used are killing the growth prospects of these countries and damaging ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221451

By Michael Pomerleano

Paradigms accepted as self-evident truths occasionally need to be re-examined. Corporate taxation is one of them. While governments are looking more and more for fiscal resources to fill budget gaps under the auspices of “rationalizing” the corporate tax systems, this article argues that a new, ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221452

European court ruled that stability mechanism was not contrary to EU law. Image by Getty

By Professor Simon Deakin

Courts don’t often try to decide the direction of economic policy. ...


February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221449

By Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda

The global economic recovery remains stuck below takeoff speed, unable to achieve liftoff and facing the risk of stalling. Half-hearted fiscal austerity measures are proving to be a drag on growth and doing little to rebuild investor and consumer confidence.

Monetary policy continues ...